Pejman Yousefzadeh hopes that the author of this article about peaceful reform in Iran* is correct:
Iranian activists from all over the political spectrum are uniting over the issue of passive resistance and other methods of civil disobedience. A book published two years ago, entitled Winds of Change, has helped to inspire the movement: The author is Reza Pahlavi, son of the late shah of Iran, who is leading a campaign to overthrow the mullahs’ dictatorship from his home in exile in the U.S. Arguing that violence breeds more violence, he has been insisting on a peaceful plan of bringing down the regime through political non-participation. He has also proposed a democratic referendum on the future of the country as the only way out of the present political quagmire.
Many of the reformist intellectuals who once vehemently supported Khatami and his effort to change the republic from within now have also come to see such a referendum as the only viable option. One of these people is the prolific satirist Ebrahim Nabavi. Reflecting on the legacy of the reformist movement in a recently published article, this hugely popular writer says: “What we can all do at this moment is to make up for our past mistakes. We have no choice but to carefully navigate our country’s vessel through its surrounding stormy waters and towards the free and democratic world. The reformist movement at this point should concentrate on forcing the hardliners to accept a national referendum on the future of the country.”
I hope so, too. One of the most pleasant things about the end of the Cold War (a time known for its plethora of pleasant things) was the demonstration that you could actually have a successful revolution that didn’t require you to shoot everybody. Still applies – Russian Georgia’s a reasonably good example** – and if it happens with Iran, I’ll jump for joy.
I… worry, though, and tack on a prayer or two, because I don’t know what the current regime in Iran will do when their subjects march in and explain that they’d rather be citizens, thanks. I know what I want that regime to do, but I can’t make them do it, and there are times when I fear that it will end in violence.
Moe
*I am aware that many people here do not like the National Review, but I do not think that people should find it unreasonable to concede that NRO does regularly report on conditions and events in Iran, and in a manner that is genuinely sympathetic towards the secular and democratic movements there.
*As for, say, Haiti: while I agree with von that the Bush Administration acted properly throughout, it is not yet certain that the situation will not end in violence after all.
Hersh in the New Yorker on the Iranian nuke program.
“This is a question of survival.”
Since the election, there has been a significant increase in student (adults under 25) executions and amputations.
Iran and Syria have just executed a mutual defense agreement.
And Iran is ignoring the IAEA and the EU is backing away.
Germany in the 30s?
Timmy, do you have cites on the executions? I’m not challenging you, just gathering information.
“And Iran is ignoring the IAEA and the EU is backing away.”
Not quite the sense that I got from Hersh’s article – Iran seemed to actually care about the IAEA, and they’ve been instrumental in finding proof of noncompliance. And how is the EU acting differently from us on this matter?
As for, say, Haiti: while I agree with von that the Bush Administration acted properly throughout, it is not yet certain that the situation will not end in violence after all.
This has me worried, too, Moe. I believe that Aristide and his supporters were both instigators of and targets of violence, and though the Bush administration and Congress are probably loathe to do so, the only way to keep Haiti from falling into the grips of a right-wing Duvalier clone or another left-wing Mugabe wannabe (which is what Aristide was becoming) is to stay in the country to groom both the stable, democratic elements of Lavalas and the opposition and usher in transparent and fair democratic oppositions. At least it’ll be easier than Iraq, but we can’t leave and let the powers-in-charge run the country as they see fit the way we did in the 1990s. The most interesting question at this point is how well with the US and France work together for a stable, post-Aristide Haiti?
With regard to Iran, I’m alternately depressed and angry about the outcomes there. Unfortunately, the US can’t do much more than issue low-key statements (like Bush’s) lest we allow the government to discredit the opposition. I haven’t read anything about the EU going soft on Iran’s nuclear program, but I really hope that’s not the case.