61 is a Magic Number

So it doesn’t scan like the original. Sue me… after we talk about why it’s a magic number.

(Numbers via The Green Papers)

We start with the number 4,322, which is the total number of delegates showing up for the Democratic Convention this summer. Somebody’s got to get 2,162 – half of the total, plus 1 – of them voting for him (alas, it’s unlikely to be any her this year) to win the nomination. Remember that number: 2,162. However, of that 4,322, 802 delegates are superdelegates that are not chosen through the primary process. So, let’s get rid of them for right now: that leaves us with 3,520 delegates who are chosen as per procedures and are pledged to vote for whatever candidate they represent for at least the first vote. Let’s repeat that number, too: 3,520.

So, let’s say that you’re a candidate that wants to make sure of the nomination. The only absolutely certain way to do that is to get at least your half-plus-one from the pool of the delegates obligated to vote a specific way on the first ballot. That’s 2,162 of 3,520, or 61% (rounded off) of the total. 61 is thus your magic number: as long as you are consistently getting at least that many of the delegates, success is assured, with no compromises or deals necessary.

This is where it gets complicated.

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Arar #16: Juliet O’Neill

They went after the Canadian reporter for writing this story, it seems. I don’t know if she’s been arrested yet, but they’ve said they intend to charge her. (I posted some excerpts, before, then deleted them….I’m sure this is being paranoid, as the Canadian press is displaying the link prominently. But on further reflection I’d … Read more

Arar #15: I try to get out, and they pull me back in

Ok, so that last post wasn’t the finale after all. Two updates: 1. Someone pointed out that I should mention that Canada and the U.S. recently signed an agreement that the Martin and Bush administrations say will prevent this from ever happening again. But Arar’s lawyers are distinctly unimpressed, as am I. From the link … Read more

You can’t please everyone

Andrew Sullivan thinks last night’s SotU “the worst Bush SOTU yet.” Not a big surprise, given the red-meat Bush tossed to his fiscally liberal, culturally conservative base.* Kevin Drum, in turn, calls the Democrat’s response “crappy,” and offers some advice.

Sheesh. Everyone’s unhappy — save me. I missed both speeches.

Now, go read Katherine‘s latest on Arar (Arar #14). It’s important.

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Arar #14: A Plea for Bipartisanship in “Interesting Times”

So some of you must have wondered why I’ve spent so much time and effort blogging about the Arar case. In part it’s because I used to be a reporter and it’s fun to keep those skills from getting rusty. In part it’s a quest for links (precious links!). In part it’s because I’m going on extended blogging hiatus very soon, and I wanted to make sure I did something worthwile before I did.

But mainly it’s because think it’s such an incredibly important, and under-reported story.

There have been a lot of limits on civil rights since September 11. Some of them are probably necessary, but some are not; some are more or less benign, but some are dangerous. Although you hear most often about the Patriot Act, most of the most controversial and severe changes were made by the executive branch without prior authorization or supervision by Congress. Many of these changes were made in secret.

You can blame the Bush administration or not, as you choose–you can guess my position. But in all honesty, Congress and the public have not made a strong effort to find out what was happening, or tell the President what he could and could not do. (A notable exception to this is the Senate Judiciary committee’s insistence on some revisions of, and time to consider the Patriot Act.)

I don’t think this is because we’re willing to allow anything, as long as there’s any chance it would keep us safer. I think most Americans would not accept what happened to Maher Arar, if they knew of it. But we don’t know, and we tend to give our leaders the benefit of the doubt when the country is in danger. I suspect it’s much easier for most people to imagine the next catastrophic terrorist attack if we don’t go far enough, than it is to imagine that someone might end up being tortured because we go too far.

This is a rare case where the veil of secrecy has been lifted. We don’t know all the details or explanations, but we know that something terrible happened. Our government took a man from an airport in New York City and handed him over to Syria, where he was tortured for 10 months. I think I’ve made a decent case that he was probably innocent; that this was done with the knowledge and approval of fairly important government officials; and that this was not some freak accident or isolated occurrence. This happened, and there is no reason to believe it will not happen again. (We are less chummy with Syria these days, but that may change and there is never any shortage of nasty regimes in the world. And the agreement with Canada about this case is incomplete, and only applies to Canadian citizens anyway.)

As Ted Barlow said last November, “I support the vigorous investigation and prosecution of terrorists and terrorist suspects. But if this isn’t over the line, then there is no line.” It is not acceptable to me for my country to send people to be tortured on scant evidence, or on evidence gained from other torture sessions. I don’t believe it makes my family any safer in the long run, and even if it did I would not support it.

Maybe that’s not what happened. I’ve looked at this very carefully, and it seems the most likely explanation to me, but I could always be wrong. But I think it is beyond dispute that we need an investigation.

Yes, it might damage Bush politically, and no, I would not shed any tears over that. But I think it would lead to Ashcroft’s replacement at most, and the public will not blame Bush too much for overreacting in the name of protecting us from terrorists. Anyway, some things have to matter more than politics. These are dangerous times, and historic times–surely we can manage to agree on something more important than a do-not-call registry.

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The Revolution Will Be Somethinged

Jonah Goldberg is in the process of dissing the blogosphere’s influence in the electoral process: The internet is a wonderful thing, but it ain’t no Brave New World for electoral politics — yet. And it probably won’t be until we have online voting. And if we do get that, it will be a revolution all … Read more

Ah, the Social Sciences…

… there’s a paper or three in the situation found here, I’m sure – especially given that most of the people involved in this are probably fairly average teenage males. Only that particular demographic would see the point of virtual prostitution rings. (Via Lincoln Cat)

Cheney rumor.

Because, SotU or no SotU, the blogging must go on. Besides, everybody else is parsing it to death and beyond.

Citizen Smash has posted a rumor that Cheney’s going to not serve a second term; granted, he already said that he would (and Bush has already said that he’d be on the ticket), but considering Cheney’s history of heart disease that’s not a particular problem. The idea is to have a healthy Vice President, after all.

Let me just note three things about this:

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the Howard Dean we haven’t seen

So is Howard Dean doomed? It’s definitely possible, but then I thought Kerry was doomed until 48 hours ago.

What Dean needs to do, and has started to do, is to show that he will be the best President. He was the first off the carpet after the midterms, but everyone else followed him up. He can’t make the electability argument credible until he, you know, wins some elections. So he needs to show some leadership, act presidential, be a statesman–pick your adjective, but you know what I mean.

We’ve seen almost none of Dean-as-leader or Dean-as-statesman this past month. People in Iowa and New Hampshire may not know he’s capable of it. But I know, I know that he can do it. I wouldn’t be supporting him otherwise–to quote the West Wing I may be dumb, but I’m not that dumb.

I know because I’ve seen him do it. Below are some examples (some of which I’ve posted before, but humor me, dagnabbit):

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Interesting

I’ll be at a Markman hearing in beautiful Orlando, Florida the next few days, so there will be (even) lighter posting from me. Before I go, however, a couple non-insightful, relatively-boring thoughts: 1. Dean has to do well in New Hampshire now. He can survive a close second, but anything worse is the end of … Read more

So we’ll go no more a-caucusing, so late into the night…

1. Yeah, I’m pretty f*cking depressed right now. Not quite ready to change my endorsement from Howard Dean to hopeless, unending despair, but bad enough. Let’s not talk about it. 2. Evidence that politics is weird, part one–Dennis Kucinich’s endorsement proved more influential than Al Gore’s, Bill Bradley’s, Tom Harkin’s combined. 3. Evidence that politics … Read more

Showstoppers

I just finished reading this particular Weekly Standard article (“Showstoppers”, by Richard H. Shultz Jr.) on why Special Forces were not used before 9/11, and it’s an eye-opener. How much of one? Let me put it this way: I’m going to be surprised if the official 9/11 report ends up being half as useful.

The central thesis of this article is simple: the Clinton administration was repeatedly stymied by attitudes and policies from both bureaucracies (civilian and military) that made it impossible for any meaningful counterterrrorism activities to take place in the realm of Special Forces. Shultz breaks down the problems into 9 basic categories:

(UPDATE: On behalf of all of us here at Obsidian Wings I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome all those visiting from Instapundit. I hope that you’ll find the site interesting, entertaining and informative. Canape?)

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Arar #13: Degrees of Separation–Analysis/Speculation

This is speculation on my part, and should be treated as such. I want to emphasize that, because these are serious charges.

But: it seems to me that the most likely explanation for how suspicion went from El-Maati, to Almalki, to Arar (and from either El-Maati or Almalki to Al-Buchi), is that a suspect confessed and named his associates (truly or falsely, but it’s not a source of information I’d ever rely on) under torture in Syria; Syria gave the information back to United States and Canadian intelligence; which asked Syria to detain and interrogate the next suspect; who confessed and named his associates (truly or falsely) under torture; and Syria gave the information back to the United States. and Canadian intelligence….etc.

Let me summarize my reasons for believing this:

1. As I noted before, the United States went to a fair degree of trouble, and probably broke the law, to deport Arar to Syria. I don’t think eating lunch one time with a suspected terrorist, or having a suspected terrorist sign your lease, normally rates an “extraordinary rendition”. There must have been something more.

2. The timing fits:
–Ahmad El-Maati was arrested in November 2001. Badr El-Maati says his son was tortured and forced to sign a false confession in Syria, before being transferred to Egypt in January of 2002. January 2002 was when the police (or CSIS, or whoever) executed the warrants against Almalki and his family, and questioned Arar’s wife about her husband.
–In April 2002, Arar has his U.S. work permit renewed without incident. In September 2002 he is taken into custody while changing planes, and the U.S. deems him too dangerous to send to Canada or Zurich. What has changed? INS incompetence is always a possibility, so perhaps they renewed his permit in error. But I think the more likely explanation is that Almalki was arrested in May, questioned about Arar under torture, and confessed to who knows what.
–Arwad Al-Buchi is also arrested after Almalki.

3. A few specific statements from U.S. and Canadian intelligence officials to the press:
–“Sources told CTV News the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has received the transcripts of the Syrian interrogation of Arar.” (link)
–“American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said the evidence was strong that Mr. Arar had associated with suspected Islamic militants over a long period in Canada. They say he confessed under torture in Syria that he had gone to Afghanistan for terrorist training, named his instructors and gave other intimate details.” (NY Times, 11/15/03, p. A4).

4. There have been other reports of U.S. intelligence collaborating with Syria, including:
— a Seymour Hersh piece in the New Yorker last year (which specifically mentions a plot on targets in Ottawa).
–This, from an NBC Nightly News report on September 5, 2002:

FRED FRANCIS reporting:

In the Syrian capital, where a dictatorship has ruled for decades, where most people resent the US for branding Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, virtually no one would believe that the CIA has made an ally of the Syrian secret police. Earlier this year, in the Persian Gulf, US troops were saved from an al-Qaeda attack because of information from Syria. Dr. Georges Jabbour often speaks unofficially for Syria.

Mr. GEORGES JABBOUR (Former Syrian Advisor): We supply the United States with any information we have on terrorist activities of al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations that we consider terrorists. And this does not mean that we agree with the United States on what she considers to be terrorism and terrorists.

FRANCIS: In fact, the information from Bashar Assad’s government is so golden, that the US is cutting Syria a break on illicit Iraqi oil. In exchange for continuing information to the CIA, Washington is really looking the other way as Syria continues to import as much as 200,000 barrels of Iraqi crude oil each day. The oil from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields is flowing in an old, unused pipeline, according to US Officials. Syria denies it, but senior US officials say Syria is lying. And Syria is paying Iraq only $14 a barrel, half the market price. A $3 billion-a-year bonanza for Syria and Iraq. Money, a senior US official says, is going into Saddam Hussein’s slush fund.

Mr. JEFFREY SCHOTT (Institute for International Economics): He certainly needs to have money to support his elite troops and to keep them–keep them happy.

FRANCIS: The US is looking the other way, US officials say, because the man who recruited some of the 9/11 hijackers, Mohammed Zammar, is now in a Syrian prison, and the CIA has access to him. Zammar is being questioned here at Syrian secret police headquarters. US sources say he is talking as are two dozen other al-Qaeda members also imprisoned.

Mr. ITAMAR RABINOVICH (Former Israeli Ambassador to US): I would say that the questioning in Damascus is going to be more brutal and more effective than in Guantanamo or in Washington.

Oddly enough, until Arar each suspect travelled to Syria voluntarily. Which lessens our culpability to a degree, but only to a degree. It’s one thing to cooperate with foreign intelligence services, including those of very nasty regimes. That’s a necessarily evil. It’s another thing to tell them which Canadian citizens to arrest, and look the other way as they torture those people, and rely on the information “confessed” under torture to deport other Canadian citizens into their hands. I don’t know that that’s what happened, but it seems a real possibility. It needs to be investigated, on both sides of the border.

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I am shocked — shocked! — to see y’all smoking in this here back room.

The Washington Post is reporting that Kucinich and Edwards have struck a last-minute, backroom deal: Kucinich has asked his supporters to swing their support to Edwards in precincts where he doesn’t receive the 15 percent minimum support needed to continue. Edwards has instructed his people to do the same for Kucinich. Both campaigns confirmed this … Read more

Arar #12: Degrees of Separation–Facts

(sorry for the delay–I am ridiculously nervous about Iowa & couldn’t concentrate. As promised–this is my best attempt at summarizing the chain of associations and events that led to Maher Arar’s deportation to Syria. I will give my analysis of this information in the next post.)

1. INTRODUCTION
Shortly after Maher Arar was returned to Canada but before he spoke to the press, Canadian officials told CTV News that:

while in custody in Syria for almost a year, Canadian Maher Arar provided information to the Syrians about al Qaeda cells operating in Canada.

They say Arar also provided information about the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamic group linked to Osama bin Laden, and information about four other Canadians: Arwad al-Bushi, a Syrian-born Canadian being held in a Syrian jail; Abdullah al Malki, another Syrian-born Canadian being held in Syria; Ahmad Abou-el-Maati, an Eyptian Canadian in custody in Egypt; and Mohamed Harkat, born in Algeria, who is being held under an anti-terrorism security certificate at the Ottawa Detention Centre….

Sources told CTV News the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has received the transcripts of the Syrian interrogation of Arar. (Source: CTV transcript, 10/24/03.

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Good News / Bad News for Dean

Bad news: a tactical error involving the failure to set up a MLK day photo-op ahead of time got noted. Should it have been? Nope, but it was anyway. I have a lot of sympathy for people who hate the media, as I’m not too fond of it myself; I just wish that people would … Read more

I Love Taranto’s BotW to death…

… but sometimes he stretches just a bit to justify adding things like this: Cartoon Laws of Physics. It’s OK, James: you don’t need to pretend anymore. You’re becoming a geek. It’s inevitable, and nothing to be ashamed of. Here, read up on Evil Overlords, too. You’ll be going through that stage anyway, so you … Read more

Notice What’s Missing?

From this Salt Lake Tribune article about Kurdish bootlegging from Iraq to Iran?

That’s right, what’s missing is any indication that the CDA, the American military or the Provisional Council give a flying leap about this. Indeed, this particular version of the article includes text omitted from the SLT, for some odd reason:

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Consider the Platypus.

While I myself recognize the validity of the theory of evolution, I must admit that these people at UDN have some juice behind their theories, assuming of course that you believe in an deity that can’t help but fiddle with the squishy bits every so often. Personally, I like my Creator a bit more concentrating on the Big Picture and letting us get on with our lives, but that’s just me.

(This got sent to me by the atheistic physicist living in my basement. Excuse me, the atheistic physicist with a PhD living in my basement, thank you very much.)

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The Cost, part two

(Another excerpt from “My Soul is Rested.” This got to me, probably more than anything else in the book.) SNCC field secretary Lawrence Guyot, on the decision to recruit white student volunteers from the North that summer, p. 286: Wherever those white volunteers went, FBI agents followed. It was really a problem to count the … Read more

The Cost, part one

In honor of Martin Luther King day, I am posting two long excerpts are from “My Soul is Rested,” an oral history of the civil rights movement edited by Howell Raines. Neither pertains to Dr. King directly. They are from two interviews with the leaders of “Freedom Summer”, the voter registration drive in Mississippi, in … Read more

The Inevitable MLK Day Post.

If you haven’t reread the speech today, I invite you to go ahead: it’s a good one with a powerful message. I was born in 1970, which means that the most important battles of the civil rights movement were things I grew up reading in the newer civics and history books. It also means that … Read more

The Inevitable SotU Link.

It’s time, once again, for the SotU drinking game. Useful additions welcome below: for the sake of balance, couple an cliche from the Other Side to drink to with a cliche from your own. (Also via Instapundit)

The Inevitable Iowa Post.

Kaus sums up the weirdness of the Iowa cauci… caucuses (sorry, James, but the other way looked too much like I was describing sealants made out of desert vegetation) very well. Shorter Micky Kaus: no number that you’ll hear today will really mean anything, and everybody knows it, but it’s Iowa’s only chance to shine … Read more

I Still hate partisan political books.

Michael Totten has a pretty good post up on Pundits And The Stupid Books That They Write. The latest representation of this trend is Sean Hannity’s new book, whose title alone (Deliver us from Evil: Defeating Terrorism, Despotism, and Liberalism) is highly obnoxious if not actively pernicious in its attempts to brand 30-50% of the … Read more

Why, thanks. No. Really.

On behalf of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy I’d just like to thank those feisty scamps over at Whitehouse.org for doing their bit to highlight Bush’s ongoing break with the last, lingering elements of racism in our party. Being reminded that President Bush has done his part to ensure that African-Americans have a say at the … Read more

Well, I’m back.

We were able to catch an early flight, so we’re back and ignoring laundry until tomorrow. I am proud to say that I was successfully able to ignore all sources of news during that time, with the exception of this blog. I’ll have resumed playing Righty counterpoint by tomorrow, just as soon as I catch … Read more

Long Shots

1) Obsidian Wings is nominated for the “Best New Blog” category in wampum’s Sandy Koufax awards (for the best in left-of-center blogging in 2003). Huzzah for us. Huzzah for whomever nominated us. I sincerely doubt we’ll make the finals in the “best new, but don’t let that stop you from stuffing the ballot box* for … Read more

Faint Damnation

Matthew Yglesias wonders why the Bush administration doesn’t mention our cooperation with Kosovo Muslims during NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in order to “ dispel [the] ‘war on Islam’ talk.” Tacitus sends a “Note to Yglesias: It’s possible that we didn’t highlight our close relationships with Muslim leaders in Bosnia and Kosovo after 9/11 in part … Read more

Arisia report

Having a good time and a bad net connection, so I’ll just note this as an example of the kinds of materials that I’m being exposed to at the convention. No, nobody’s dared stage it as of yet, as far as I know.

On the Reservation

The ancient punishment of banishment is alive and well among certain Indian tribes:

[A] growing number of tribes across the country, desperate to slow the wounds of drug and alcohol abuse, gambling, poverty and violence, have used banishment in varying forms in the last decade. Tribal leaders see this ancient response, which reflects Indian respect for community, as a painful but necessary deterrent.

. . . .

The rate of alcohol-related deaths among Indians was seven times that of the national average in 2002, according to the latest data from Indian Health Services, an agency within the United States Department of Health and Human Services.

. . . .

“It’s out of desperation,” said Doug George-Kanentiio, who is a journalist for News From Indian Country, a national newspaper, and a member of the six nations of Iroquois, some of which imposed banishments. “The leadership is caught in a very awkward position, and they have to make a choice. They could either reinforce the ancestral discipline, or they go the American route, which has proven to be a failure.”*

This isn’t something that many non-Native Americans like to focus on, but American Indian policy is in dire need of reformation. Simply pouring “more money” on the problem ain’t gonna cut it. What needs to be confronted is the growing abyss between the haves and have-nots of Indian tribes.

The “haves” tend to be clustered on the coasts, within an easy drive of large urban centers. Take, for instance, the Foxwoods Casino near Stonington, CT — ideally located within driving distance of New York, Boston, Hartford, and Providence. The Foxwoods (which, by the by, is this gaudy pink thing smack in the middle of an idyllic forest) fills the Pequot reservation and has a yearly revenue of about $1 billion. It’s safe to assume that the 270-or-so members of the Mashantucket Pequot are doing just fine, thank you very much.

In contrast, the have-nots — like the Lummi of Washington State — tend to find themselves in less lucrative locations, usually between the coasts, and have extraordinary poverty rates. They’re in need of targeted disbursements and the ability to exercise more local control, so that they can find local solutions for their problems. They also need to be discouraged from seeing “banishment” as an option. Shifting bodies around ain’t a solution. A banished Lummi alcoholic may no longer trouble the Lummi tribe, but he still has a problem — as do the surrounding communities and Washington State.

This isn’t a very sexy issue, but it’s an important one. Let’s try to remember it.

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Anniversaries

Via a CalPundit commenter, I found another “wink wink nudge nudge” anniversary. Last October (this was before the Goodridge decision in Massachusetts, bear in mind), President Bush declared the week of October 12 to October 18, 2003 “Marriage Protection Week”. “Marriage Protection Week” began five years to the day after Matthew Shepard’s death. One of … Read more

Pickering

On Friday, January 16, President Bush appointed Charles Pickering to the Fifth Circuit during a Congressional recess.

Let’s forget the process arguments about recess appointments for now. Most of us, myself included, don’t know what we’re talking about; we’re talking about either “obstructionism” and “advice and consent” not out of our devotion to the judicial confirmation process, but because it serves our side’s substantive interests.

Let’s talk instead (as Henry Farrell and Jack Balkin suggest) about what kind of judge Pickering will be on the Fifth Circuit, which has a higher minority population than any other Circuit and hears many civil rights cases:

–Pickering supported segregation in the 1960s, and has dodged questions and made false statements about this history before Congress. See this Salon article for details. (If you’re not a subscriber you can access the full article by viewing an ad.)

–Then there’s Pickering’s handling of a cross burning case in 1994, which you can read about in this excellent Washington Post story. Excerpts below.

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