Politics

So it doesn’t scan like the original. Sue me… after we talk about why it’s a magic number.

(Numbers via The Green Papers)

We start with the number 4,322, which is the total number of delegates showing up for the Democratic Convention this summer. Somebody’s got to get 2,162 – half of the total, plus 1 – of them voting for him (alas, it’s unlikely to be any her this year) to win the nomination. Remember that number: 2,162. However, of that 4,322, 802 delegates are superdelegates that are not chosen through the primary process. So, let’s get rid of them for right now: that leaves us with 3,520 delegates who are chosen as per procedures and are pledged to vote for whatever candidate they represent for at least the first vote. Let’s repeat that number, too: 3,520.

So, let’s say that you’re a candidate that wants to make sure of the nomination. The only absolutely certain way to do that is to get at least your half-plus-one from the pool of the delegates obligated to vote a specific way on the first ballot. That’s 2,162 of 3,520, or 61% (rounded off) of the total. 61 is thus your magic number: as long as you are consistently getting at least that many of the delegates, success is assured, with no compromises or deals necessary.

This is where it gets complicated.

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Andrew Sullivan thinks last night’s SotU “the worst Bush SOTU yet.” Not a big surprise, given the red-meat Bush tossed to his fiscally liberal, culturally conservative base.* Kevin Drum, in turn, calls the Democrat’s response “crappy,” and offers some advice.

Sheesh. Everyone’s unhappy — save me. I missed both speeches.

Now, go read Katherine‘s latest on Arar (Arar #14). It’s important.

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Because, SotU or no SotU, the blogging must go on. Besides, everybody else is parsing it to death and beyond.

Citizen Smash has posted a rumor that Cheney’s going to not serve a second term; granted, he already said that he would (and Bush has already said that he’d be on the ticket), but considering Cheney’s history of heart disease that’s not a particular problem. The idea is to have a healthy Vice President, after all.

Let me just note three things about this:

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So is Howard Dean doomed? It’s definitely possible, but then I thought Kerry was doomed until 48 hours ago.

What Dean needs to do, and has started to do, is to show that he will be the best President. He was the first off the carpet after the midterms, but everyone else followed him up. He can’t make the electability argument credible until he, you know, wins some elections. So he needs to show some leadership, act presidential, be a statesman–pick your adjective, but you know what I mean.

We’ve seen almost none of Dean-as-leader or Dean-as-statesman this past month. People in Iowa and New Hampshire may not know he’s capable of it. But I know, I know that he can do it. I wouldn’t be supporting him otherwise–to quote the West Wing I may be dumb, but I’m not that dumb.

I know because I’ve seen him do it. Below are some examples (some of which I’ve posted before, but humor me, dagnabbit):

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I hereby endorse Howard Dean for the Democratic nomination for President.

This may not surprise you. (Oh come on, at least pretend to be surprised.) But I thought I’d give my reasons.

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Not so long ago, I wrote:

Dean has a strong base, but he turns a heckova lot of people off (myself included). It’s not at all clear that he can overcome this insta-hate, and reach out beyond his current followers. . . . The polls tell the story: Dean, more than probably any other candidate, depends on grass-roots momentum. But his momentum is fading . . . Dean’s playing defense for the first time, and I’m not sure he has it in him.

In comments, I added:

Frankly, Dean hasn’t really been tested yet. The easiest place in the world to be as a candidate is to be the up-and-coming outsider (Wes Clark, I’m looking at you). Until recently, Dean has had the luxury of being in that position. . . . Now that Dean has had a couple weeks as the clear front runner, we’ve seen him either stumble or crack (depending on your personal view of the man). It hasn’t been pretty.

I went out on a limb, and predicted that “[t]he worm has turned. Dean has peaked. Clark is going to be the Democratic nominee[.]” Now, I could very well be wrong about Clark being the nominee. But there’s growing evidence that Dean may, in fact, have peaked.

You saw it here first, folks.

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I thought that it was well past time that we took a look at this sucker: HR 4655, The Iraqi Liberation Act of 1998. This is either an inconvenient spike in the wheel for the BDS sufferers, or else an irrelevant side issue that doesn’t say what the warmongers claim it says, depending on who you ask.

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Jonah “I’m not a South Park Republican” Goldberg breaks ranks with most of the rest of the National Review over the Bush immigration proposals:

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Depending on your affiliation, you either thought that this Mark Steyn article was topical, informative and funny or insulting, patronizing and dunderheaded (or maybe one or two of you were interestingly iconoclastic about it all). Either way, I think that this particular passage could stand for a bit of discussion:

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In responses to this post (where, among other things, I mentioned in passing to not expect a nonbrokered convention and to expect horsetrading) I was asked by reader praktile,

Moe, what kind of horse trading do you think would happen? Do you have any insight as to how those behind-the-scenes discussions happen?

Fair questions, both of them.

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By now all y’all have probably seen Bush’s immigration proposals. I want to see the concrete plan first, but I’m generally in favor of an amnesty for illegal immigrants, so I’m always ready to at least consider policy changes that might make that more likely.

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… Wesley Clark gives his campaign manager heartburn, ulcers and a coronary. Clark: Abortion decision is the mom’s alone

Democrat Wesley Clark said yesterday he would never appoint a pro-life judge to the federal bench because the judge’s anti-abortion views would render him unable to follow the established judicial precedent of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

The Presidential candidate also told The Union Leader that until the moment of birth, the government has no right to influence a mother’s decision on whether to have an abortion.

“Life,” he said, “begins with the mother’s decision.”

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(This post is directed mainly towards fellow Democrats or Democratic-leaning independent. If you’re it’s not given for you that the Democrats are the good guys and that Bush has to go, it won’t make much sense.)
I wouldn’t make the same prediction about the primary as von—, but I think it’s a strong possibility & I’m going to write this post on the assumption that it will come true.

I think it’s becoming clear that the last phase will be a two man race between Dean and Clark, and that both have a realistic chance of winning. I should be happy with this. I’ve been wishing for a two man race between Dean and Clark since September and especially since December. The scurvy Congresscritters* have been routed, and it’s down to our two strongest candidates. I thought at one point that I’d be nearly as happy with Clark’s nomination as with Dean’s.

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Let us crunch some New Hampshire numbers (with a heavy reliance on The Green Papers). Via here we see the latest NH poll results:

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