More News About Democrats

by hilzoy (1) As everyone already knows, Barack Obama won Maine in a landslide. By my calculations (based on these results), with 99% of precincts reporting, Obama has won 59.47% of the delegates to Clinton’s 39.93%. (OK, I like decimal points: so sue me.) In a state that a lot of people thought might go … Read more

Blowout Yesterday, Who Knows What Today?

by hilzoy I expected Obama to win yesterday’s primaries and caucusses, but not necessarily by such huge margins: 57%-36% in Louisiana, 68%-32% in Nebraska, 68%-31% in Washington, and 89.9.%-7.6% in the Virgin Islands. Obama seems to have beaten not just my projections, but his own campaign’s: his campaign had projected a ten point victory in … Read more

They Love Him Not

by publius I know it won’t really affect the outcome, but it is interesting that McCain — just days after essentially securing the nomination — is poised to go 0 for 3 tonight against Huckabee. It’s close in those states, but still. I’m not sure what it means, if anything. But I think it reinforces … Read more

Fight On

by publius The great battle for Texas is still a few weeks away, but organization is well underway. Today, for instance, I wandered down to the opening of the Houston for Obama Volunteer Headquarters. It was essentially a rally followed by neighborbood canvassing (I skipped out for the latter – kids make that hard). The … Read more

Reefer Madness

by hilzoy This is funny: as we all presumably know, Barack Obama described using drugs, including cocaine, in his autobiography, Dreams From My Father. Clinton surrogates, like the odious Robert Johnson, have periodically tried to make an issue out of it, and have been smacked down. I’m glad: while I think one might worry about … Read more

Strange Days, Open Thread

by hilzoy (1) I imagine this is supposed to be an appeal to The Youth Vote: This strikes me as pretty lame, which means that one (or more) of two things must be the case: (1) I am now officially antiquated, and have absolutely no sense at all of what Today’s Youth will find compelling. … Read more

Romney Out

by hilzoy Via TPM: Mitt Romney has dropped out with all the grace and insight that made him such a, cough, formidable opponent: “John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign. “I must now stand aside, for our party and our country,” Romney … Read more

Straight Talk

by hilzoy John McCain, Jan. 30, 2008: “What I’m trying to emphasize, Anderson, that we are in a very serious challenge right now, with a lot of Americans very uncertain about their future, and we’ve got to give them some comfort. We’ve got to give them some stimulus.” Yesterday: “Republicans managed Wednesday evening to block … Read more

Democrats And Unity

by hilzoy In a first for me, I find myself agreeing with Mark Steyn: “The real story of the night, when you look at their rallies and their turn-out numbers, is that the Dems have two strong candidates either of whom could lead a united party to victory. Forget the gaseous platitudes: in Dem terms, … Read more

It Ain’t Huck, Babe

by publius I’ve been hearing a lot about a possible McCain-Huckabee ticket. But from McCain’s perspective, Huckabee seems like a poor choice. True, McCain has a base problem — both on the Christian front and on the frothing pundit front. But Huckabee isn’t the ideal candidate to fill this gap because the Rushes and Hannitys … Read more

Super Tuesday Roundup

by publius Well, that was anticlimactic. It felt a bit like an overhyped movie – probably ok, but disappointing because of unrealistic expectations. Anyway, here are my various thoughts on tonight’s elections, in no particular order. The Draw Any way you slice it, tonight was a draw on the Dem side. I just saw Chuck … Read more

Tsunami Tuesday Open Thread

by hilzoy CNN has called Georgia for Obama. Since they called it about a nanosecond after the polls closed, I’m guessing he won by a pretty large margin. TPM has some preliminary exit poll data here, but Marc Ambinder adds the necessary caveats: “I would just remind all of you that the first wave of … Read more

Losing in Translation

by publius

To join the chorus tonight, I too am favoring Obama. I feel like I’ve given my reasons over the past few months, so I’ll limit myself to one example that best captures the stakes for me.

Katherine recently posted on Clinton’s distasteful support for deporting immigrants who have committed crimes without legal process. Of course, as Hilzoy has pointed out until she’s blue in the face, “legal process” isn’t about supporting criminals – it’s about generating information to make sure the person is a criminal in the first place. Removing all legal process here would be cruel because it would completely ignore the underlying factual context. Multiple public urinators could face the same summary deportation that real criminals would. (Good thing I was a citizen while in college … and now).

But the larger problem is the demagoguery. Even more broadly, the problem is that the demagoguery provides further evidence of Clinton’s unwillingness to break from the larger conservative (and even nationalist) narratives that currently define our political debates.

To use an analogy, consider the Internets. More precisely, think about the process of downloading a pdf file. To be grotesquely general, you contact the server that contains the file and it then transmits that information in the form of packets. Those packets eventually reach your computer and are “translated” into a readable form as they ascend the application layers to the Adobe program.

The point I want to emphasize is the translation process and how it’s similar to the way political narratives translate facts on the ground into “readable” form. Issues like the war or immigration bubble up from the ground and eventually get translated into some broader narrative or schema that helps people digest it. While Lakoff is wrong about a lot (especially remedies), he’s right that narratives matter – and can be stubbornly resistant.

The problem though is not so much the existence of narratives, but that narratives are skewed in nationalist ways – “evil Adobes,” if you will. For instance, it bothers me that we as a nation translate willingness to go to war into signs of personal courage and strength. It bothers me that diplomacy is translated into lovey-dove appeasing of teh enemy. It bothers me that legal protections that people spent centuries fighting for are translated into, and casually dismissed as, terrorist sympathy measures. It bothers me that any tax increase – no matter how limited or progressive – is translated into robbing working people.

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Obama: Actually, I Think We Can

by hilzoy

I, too, endorse Obama for President, to no one’s surprise. Since Katherine has already written a lot of what I would have wanted to say about his rhetoric, and since I’ve already talked about one of my most important reasons for supporting him, namely the fact that he got Iraq right from the outset, I’ll say something about the peculiar idea that Barack Obama is all style and no substance.

I came to Obama by an unusual route: as I explained here, I follow some issues pretty closely, and over and over again, Barack Obama kept popping up, doing really good substantive things. There he was, working for nuclear non-proliferation and securing loose stockpiles of conventional weapons, like shoulder-fired missiles. There he was again, passing what the Washington Post called “the strongest ethics legislation to emerge from Congress yet” — though not as strong as Obama would have liked. Look — he’s over there, passing a bill that created a searchable database of recipients of federal contracts and grants, proposing legislation on avian flu back when most people hadn’t even heard of it, working to make sure that soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan were screened for traumatic brain injury and to prevent homelessness among veterans, successfully fighting a proposal by the VA to reexamine all PTSD cases in which full benefits had been awarded, working to ban no-bid contracts in Katrina reconstruction, and introducing legislation to criminalize deceptive political tactics and voter intimidation. And there he was again, introducing a tech plan of which Lawrence Lessig wrote:

“Obama has committed himself to a technology policy for government that could radically change how government works. The small part of that is simple efficiency — the appointment with broad power of a CTO for the government, making the insanely backwards technology systems of government actually work.

But the big part of this is a commitment to making data about the government (as well as government data) publicly available in standard machine readable formats. The promise isn’t just the naive promise that government websites will work better and reveal more. It is the really powerful promise to feed the data necessary for the Sunlights and the Maplights of the world to make government work better. Atomize (or RSS-ify) government data (votes, contributions, Members of Congress’s calendars) and you enable the rest of us to make clear the economy of influence that is Washington.

After the debacle that is the last 7 years, the duty is upon the Democrats to be something different. I’ve been wildly critical of their sameness (remember “Dems to the Net: Go to hell” which earned me lots of friends in the Democratic party). I would give my left arm to be able to celebrate their difference. This man, Mr. Obama, would be that difference. He has as much support as I can give.”

Imagine my surprise, then, when I heard people saying that Obama wasn’t “substantive”. It was exactly like my experience in 2004 when, after hearing Wes Clark for the first time, I went and looked up his positions on a whole host of issues of concern to me, and only then started reading media accounts of him in which I “learned” that no one knew what his positions were.

As some of my students would say: I was like, wtf?

I was also surprised …

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Why I Love the Horse Race

by publius

Though I watched the Democratic debate, I’ve read very little post-debate commentary today. So I don’t know who “won.” But as I was watching them last night, I stopped thinking about who was winning or losing. Instead, I found myself marveling at their combined performance. The entire debate – certainly the most substantive one in my lifetime – was a collective advertisement for the Democratic Party. Whatever else it achieved, the clash of these Titans made the Republican field look small, petty, and tired. Democrats should feel proud about both the caliber of the candidates and the level of the policy discussion on display last night.

It confirmed how much I enjoy primaries – especially this one. Frankly, I’ve never agreed with those who belittle primary races, or feel above picking sides. For obvious reasons, these races are extremely important – and historically consequential. But what’s less obvious is how interesting they are from a purely aesthetic perspective. The horse race we’re witnessing is drama of the highest order – pure political theater. And while emotions will surely run high in the weeks to come, political junkies in particular should take a step back and enjoy the beauty of it. Not beauty in the sense of flowers and butterflies, but in a higher, more human, aesthetic sense.

First, consider the novelty of this race. The Democratic Party is about to hold a runoff between a woman and an African-American for President of the United States. Obviously, this is a testament to these two individuals and their immense talents. But from a broader perspective, this runoff is the vindication of generations of activists and political organizations (armies of Katherines, if you will).

Consider the condition of both women and blacks a mere hundred years ago. Francis Fukuyama notwithstanding, there was nothing inevitable about the changes we’ve seen. Those changes were the product of blood, sweat, and tears over a long period of time. They were willed by political engagement and social movements that were often ridiculed in their day (and remain ridiculed – note the smug way people refer to “identity politics” today). Again, I’m not taking anything away from these two individuals, but we should remember the broader social and political struggles that made their ascension possible in the first place.

Second, step back and appreciate the epic-ness of this particular contest. This is a clash in a primary between two massive, well-oiled, well-funded machines. (Obama supporters should not ignore how many establishment bigwigs bundle for, and otherwise support, Obama). It’s rare to see these levels of competence, funding, and organization in rival presidential primary camps. Regardless of who wins, the nominee is going to be well-prepared for the general given that each is doing daily battle with nationally-organized campaigns performing at the top of their respective games.

These are big-time organizations. That’s why, at least here, I enjoy even the “silly” horse race focus. On some level, sure, I wish that media coverage and political strategy were 100% policy-based. But in the all too human world in which we live, it’s impossible to fully separate these contests from the schoolyard fights that remain the highlight of my primary education experience. In short, perceptions of the horse race matter. And for this reason, how the campaigns drive – and respond to – these stories is part of the broader “fight” that makes for such compelling theater.

It’s also quite fitting that, in the week before Super Tuesday, both camps are humming on all cylinders. They truly are at the top of their games right now. The debate, for instance, quite appropriately shifted from schoolyard antics to high-level policy discussions. And though this sounds cheesy, it was an honor to watch it. I haven’t enjoyed the debates this year, but the “runoff” debate last night was a different story. To see candidates of this caliber engaging one-one-one in a high-level substantive debate about the great issues of our day (e.g., Iraq and health care) was political junkie manna.

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Protecting Our People

by hilzoy Exhibit A, from Ezra Klein: Ezra adds: “Our spending is 43 percent of the total. Not the total on that chart. The total of the world.” (Figures for 2005; source here.) Exhibit B, from the NYT: “The Food and Drug Administration is so understaffed that, at its current pace, the agency would need … Read more

The Undead

by publius Being a Mitt Man, I’m still too depressed to write about Florida. And though I don’t really like quoting Steve Sailer, this seems spot on (via Corner): So, are all the neocons who got jobs in the Giuliani campaign, like N. Podhoretz, Frum, Rubin, going to jump ship and join the McCain campaign? … Read more

John Edwards Is Out

by hilzoy What most of you already know: “John Edwards will end his presidential bid today, a source close to his campaign confirmed, effectively narrowing the Democratic field to two contenders less than a week before the Super Tuesday round of primaries. The former North Carolina senator is scheduled to speak in New Orleans this … Read more

The good news

I’ve haven’t been a big fan of McCain since his atrocious anti-First Amendment campaign finance law.  But the good news about his win in Florida, and the almost certainty of his nomination for Republican candidate, is that the Republican candidate is decidedly anti-torture.  Yikes, I wish that had never even been a question.  Otherwise, open … Read more

Data Point: Habeas Corpus

by hilzoy In comments to an earlier thread, Katherine posted a link to a statement by a group called Habeas Lawyers for Obama. Excerpt: “We are at a critical point in the Presidential campaign, and as lawyers who have been deeply involved in the Guantanamo litigation to preserve the important right to habeas corpus, we … Read more

We Live To Fight Another Day

by hilzoy Today, the Republicans failed to sustain a cloture motion on the bill to amend FISA while providing retroactive immunity to telecoms. Four Democrats voted in favor of cloture, and one Republican (Arlen Specter) voted against. This means that debate has to continue, and the bill cannot yet come to a vote. Immediately afterwards, … Read more

And Speaking Of Lies…

by hilzoy From the NYT: ““If we surrender and wave a white flag like Senator Clinton wants to do and withdraw as Governor Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos,” Mr. McCain said to reporters in Fort Myers on Saturday morning. At a town-hall-style meeting later in Sun City Center, a retirement community, … Read more

Random Links, Open Thread

by hilzoy (1) As has already been noted in comments, Ted Kennedy will endorse Obama on Monday. Backstory here. Marc Ambinder is reporting that Kathleen Sebelius will endorse him on Tuesday. [UPDATE: Missed this, earlier: “The disclosure also comes the same weekend that the House’s highest-ranking Latino, California Rep. Xavier Becerra, also announced that he … Read more

Meanwhile, On Another Planet…

by hilzoy There’s a peculiar post up at Bizarro World, cleverly called: Democrats: The Party Of The Klan?, which pretty conclusively demonstrates that Erick, who wrote it, actually does live in an alternate universe: “They are always claiming that Republicans are racist, but it is looking more and more like the Democratic Party, to its … Read more

The Enemy of Their Enemy

by publius From a purely rational perspective, it’s odd that so many conservative pundits (commenters, etc.) find Obama so much preferable to Clinton. On everything from national security to trade to domestic economics, I suspect a Clinton administration would be far more to their liking than an Obama one. Clinton contempt, however, is not exactly … Read more

I’ll Take a Stab

by publius Josh Marshall poses a challenge: “try to explain this”: Seems pretty clear to me — Clinton is implying that Obama won because he’s black, just like Jackson did. And, his larger implication is that this victory doesn’t matter for that reason. Now, he seems to catch himself halfway through, but the implication seems … Read more

South Carolina Open Thread

by hilzoy The major networks have called the South Carolina primary for Obama. I don’t know what the final margins are, though I just heard it described as a “rout” on MSNBC. Given the exit polls and a bit of quick math, Obama has to have gotten over 50% of the vote, while Clinton and … Read more

Changing The Rules

by hilzoy I’m with Josh Marshall on Hillary Clinton’s attempt to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated: “The Clinton camp really needs to be shut down on this new gambit of theirs to muscle the party and the other candidates into seating the Michigan and Florida delegate slates. And let me be very clear … Read more

No Soup for Dulles

by publius Though non-DC people may not care about this, I noticed in the Post that the FTA has abruptly reversed course on running the Metro (subway) line out to Dulles. This extension would, of course, help on a number of fronts. Not only would it make traveling to Dulles easier (which is miserable via … Read more

Lies And Democracy

by hilzoy

I think it’s more or less beyond question that Hillary Clinton, and her husband, have told a series of lies about Barack Obama. (I’ve put some familiar examples at the end of this post: anyone who wants to consider the evidence can do so, but it won’t be as distracting to those who have already seen it.) I basically agree with what publius said about it:

“What’s so infuriating is that, in doing so, they assume their audience is too ignorant to learn the truth. It’s not so much that they’re attacking Obama – after all, that’s politics. It’s that Clinton’s attacks illustrate a deep contempt for voters. Call it “the rube strategy” – we’ll say what we want and most people will be too ignorant to ever figure out the difference.”

However, I don’t think the problem is exactly that they are assuming that most people won’t follow the news closely enough to know who is telling the truth and who is lying. As far as I can tell, that assumption is accurate. The problem is that they are playing on that ignorance in a way that displays a different sort of contempt for voters: not the assumption that most people do not follow the news closely enough to be able to say what’s wrong with criticizing Obama’s ‘present’ votes on anti-abortion bills, which is probably true, but the idea that it is OK to manipulate them into casting votes they might not cast if people were not telling them lies.

Consider, for instance …

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Prognosis Negative

by publius As a sidebar to the imminent Democratic surrender on telecom immunity, note that five of the twelve pro-immunity Dems are on the Senate Commerce Committee. These include: (1) Inouye (Chairman); (2) Rockefeller; (3) McCaskill; (4) Nelson (FL); and (5) Pryor. This matters because the Commerce Committee is where all things telecom start. So, … Read more

Fighting Fire With Fire

by hilzoy Writing about Paul Waldman’s latest column in TAP, Ezra Klein writes: “The overarching theme of Waldman’s column — that Clinton is “running like a Republican” — almost pushes me to her side on the issue. The winner of the Democratic primary, after all, will have to run against a Republican.” I think it’s … Read more