Sex, Lies, And Videotape

by hilzoy The McCain campaign has a new ad out that says (among other things): “Obama’s one accomplishment? Legislation to teach “comprehensive sex education” to kindergartners. Learning about sex before learning to read? Barack Obama. Wrong on education. Wrong for your family. “ John McCain: wrong on the facts. For starters, the bill is not … Read more

Palin’s Mirror

by publius Rod Dreher: Sarah Palin makes perfect sense to me as the kind of person I grew up with. . . . People like me see Palin as a culture warrior, but only because she’s drawn so much incoming fire from her cultural enemies. In truth, I don’t think there’s much of a conscious … Read more

Better Piranhas Needed

by publius Sarah Palin — for apparently the 23rd time — again flat-out lied about the Bridge to Nowhere today. The press has done a fairly decent job reporting the inaccuracy, but she and the McCain campaign are just rubbing the press’s nose in it at this point. They clearly feel like they have the … Read more

The Trouble With Being [an] Earmark

by publius Gail Collins thinks that earmarks just aren’t that important. Brendan Nyhan agrees, and urges Collins to explain why in better detail. In particular, Nyhan wants her to note that earmarks are only a tiny tiny drop of the overall federal budget. Even if John McCain got rid of every earmark (an impossible task), … Read more

Surface Politics

by publius

One personal benefit of the Bush years is that I’ve become increasingly less cynical about politics. I now view political fights as both substantive and vitally important. I also believe (in a reversal since Iraq) that voters will generally act rationally assuming the press informs them what’s going on. Indeed, most of you probably feel this way too — if you didn’t think ideas and arguments actually mattered, why bother reading or commenting?

But Palin’s rise to fame has jarred me a bit. In fact, it’s bringing out my cynical side and reminding me of March 2003.

Looking back, the really scary part of the Iraq War was not the war itself, but how quickly Americans accepted and embraced a top-down war. The public went from never thinking about Iraq in July 2002 to being whipped up in a frenzy by October 2002, with no triggering event like Pearl Harbor in between (yes, 9/11 was in the background, but it wasn’t a direct trigger for war).

It was a pure top-down war — a pure vanguard movement in the Leninist sense. The administration decided on war, and proceeded to sell the public on it largely on the basis of a savvy media campaign. The war was troubling enough, but the public’s willingness to be manipulated — Julius Caesar style — was borderline terrifying. If we could be persuaded to march off to Iraq in that manner, what else could we be persuaded to do if, say, terrorists attacked again?

Love her or hate her, Palin’s rapid ascent has some eerie parallels. And to be clear, these criticisms have nothing to do with Palin individually, or her views or ideology. She may be a dud, or she may be the next Abraham Lincoln. The point is that no one knows.

What’s troubling then is not so much her, but the way in which both the conservative base and apparently a decent chunk of swing voters have embraced her on the basis of essentially nothing but media images and prepared speeches. It’s surface politics gone wild.

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Public Service Announcement

by hilzoy

It occurred to me today that voter registration deadlines are going to start coming up soon, and that that being the case, it might be a good idea for someone to post them. And since I am the change I’ve been waiting for, I thought: why not me? After all, some of my readers might inexplicably have failed to register to vote, and others might feel like going out and doing voter registration but not have gotten around to it yet. So, below the fold, I have posted the deadlines for all the states and DC. I put links to the actual calendars; do check them, since while I did try to be careful, I’d hate for some typo of mine to disenfranchise anyone.

The Obama and McCain campaigns can probably set you up to do voter registration. On the Obama site, if you don’t want to do it in your area, click here, then click the state you’re interested in, and you will be able to find its various campaign offices. (Useful for people like me, who live in safe states and within driving distance of swing states.)

[UPDATE: On closer inspection, it’s only really easy to find your local office in some states. All have lots of info on events, etc., but not all have the useful ‘Find your local office’ button on the right, under ‘Take Action’. The ones with the useful button seem to be swing states, as one would expect. END UPDATE.]

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Naked David Broder Speaks

by hilzoy Over at the Washington Monthly, Steve Benen notes a Washington Post fact-check that equates these claims: (1) Joe Biden said that “In the Senate, John[McCain] has voted with President Bush 95 percent.” In fact, he voted with Bush 95% of the time in 2007, but his average over the entire Bush presidency is … Read more

Pwned!

by hilzoy As Jay Bookman notes in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “According to his spokesman, U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, a Southerner born and bred, had no idea on earth that the word “uppity” had racial connotations when he used it to describe Barack and Michelle Obama. No idea at all. Could have knocked him over with … Read more

Oops! She Did It Again

by hilzoy ABC’s Political Punch reports on Sarah Palin’s speech today: “She said she “championed reform of earmark spending by Congress, and I told the Congress thanks but no thanks on that ‘Bridge to Nowhere’”, she said, ommiting (sic) mention that she’d campaigned for governor supporting the bridge.” I take it most readers of this … Read more

More Of The Same

by hilzoy From the WSJ: “The biggest project that Sarah Palin undertook as mayor of this small town was an indoor sports complex, where locals played hockey, soccer, and basketball, especially during the long, dark Alaskan winters. The only catch was that the city began building roads and installing utilities for the project before it … Read more

Oh, Please.

by hilzoy Sen. James Inhofe sets a new record for disingenuousness: “Regardless of what polls show, Inhofe said, voters will have to ask themselves a question once they get behind the curtain in the voting booth on Election Day. “Do you really want to have a guy as commander in chief of this country when … Read more

Weekend Thread

by publius

A couple of quick notes for your weekend enjoyment.

1 – Brien Jackson from Below the Fold was kind enough to contact me a while back about doing an email interview, which you can see here. It extends over several days, so some of my answers were from the convention itself.

2 – Last night, the local establishment I patronized had an old-old-old-school Journey arcade game (that you could play for free!). The premise is that Journey’s musical instruments have all been stolen and scattered to various parts of outer space. Your job is to control the band members (who all have paper cut-out Journey heads, sort of like South Park) and get the instruments back. Naturally, I took pictures (more below the jump).

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Comparisons

by hilzoy

I got this email from a friend of mine:

“One thing that struck me last night was the irony of a candidate who relentlessly positions himself as a selfless servant of the nation (“I wasn’t my own man anymore. I was my country’s.”), and then allocates such a large share of his convention speech to talking about himself. I can understand the need for Sarah Palin to dedicate time in her speech to introduce herself to the nation, given that she was an unknown quantity on the political scene at that point (notwithstanding the frenzy of Google searches over the last seven days). But at 72, after a long career in Washington, after a widely-televised campaign, and at the end of a convention in which an entire day had been dedicated to answering the “Who is John McCain?” question, it seems a little unusual for McCain to use his most precious block of national TV airtime to essentially read aloud from his memoirs, saying comparatively little about the country or about his platform.

Here is an admittedly simplistic way of looking at it based on analysis of the full transcript of the speech found on his campaign website. There were a total of 271 sentences in the speech, not including the “thankyouthankyouthankyouallsomuchthankyou” before he started and the “joinmejoinmefightwithmejoinmefightwithme” bit in the final minute or so. Of those 271 sentences, a remarkable 147 (54%) were devoted to telling us about John McCain himself: his past accomplishments (“I fought crooked deals in the Pentagon”), his qualifications for the job (“I know how the world works”), his family and childhood (“When I was five years old, a car pulled up in front of our house…”), his time as a POW (“On an October morning, in the Gulf of Tonkin…”), his patriotism (“My country saved me”), and so on. Another 8 sentences focused on Sarah Palin. This leaves only 116 sentences (43% of the speech) to discuss the topics that one might otherwise expect to constitute the majority of the speech: the state of the nation, his policy positions, future promises, differences between his positions and Obama’s, and so on.

The contrast with Obama’s speech is pretty dramatic if you go back and review the transcript of both speeches. Obama dwells almost exclusively in the realm of the state of the country, the future, what America is all about, key components of the platform, etc — only occasionally sprinkling in comments about himself and his family that help to provide context and credibility. Using a similar analysis of the 226 sentences in the speech, 35 are devoted to Obama himself and/or his family, or about 15% of the speech. More than a third of these came in a single section containing memories about his mother and grandparents (“These are my heroes.”)”

I went back and did the same exercise. I called a couple of cases differently, but ended up with about 50% of McCain’s sentences focussed on himself, but the same 43% on the state of the country, etc. I counted 14% of Obama’s sentences as being about himself; as those included all sentences about his wife and Joe Biden, there was no need to count those separately. The remaining 86% was about the country, his plans, and so forth.

For the record, both my friend and I excluded any claims about McCain and Obama that were about what they were going to do, however vague (e.g., a sentence like McCain’s “We’re going to change that” counts as a claim about the future, not a statement about McCain.) We counted only sentences that were about their present or past. The contrast was pretty striking, even more so when I read the speeches back to back.

A bit more after the fold.

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Voter Registration

by hilzoy Scott at Edge of the American West decided to see whether he could track down information on changes in voter registration since the campaign got going in earnest. He has posted his information here. Democrats have gotten more new registrants in all states for which Scott could find data except for Alaska. In … Read more

Daily Show on Community Organizers

by publius Probably the nastiest part of the entire Wednesday night 60 Minutes Hate was the attack on community organizers. As always, Jon Stewart had the best response — the whole thing is worth watching, but that part begins at 7:20.

Angry

by hilzoy A commenter at the Monthly noted that my last post was “surprisingly snarky” for me. I meant it, and I stand by it, but I take his point. There was something else, which I wasn’t prepared to write about. Maybe I’m still not. But what the heck: I was primed by watching the … Read more

Paglian Chthonic Fecundity Subrational Frequencies

by publius I don’t entirely follow this post, but it appears that Will Wilkinson believes that Palin is more politically effective than Hillary Clinton (you know, 2 speeches versus 18 million votes) because Clinton isn’t feminine. He adds that these realities are unfortunate, but they’re biological — or cultural, I’m not entirely sure.

Watch What They Do, Not What They Say

by hilzoy That was a rather listless speech by Senator McCain, though it picked up briefly at the end. I wanted to note a couple of things. First, McCain often distorted Obama’s views. He said Obama would raise taxes, when (just to repeat myself) Obama will raise taxes only on people making over $250,000 a … Read more

First Thoughts

by publius Ok — a few tentative thoughts. First, the good parts. On a personal level, I appreciated that he was respectful to Obama at the beginning. I think “bipartisan McCain” is a lot more personally appealing than what we’ve been seeing pretty much all year. Overall, the speech was respectful and it didn’t make … Read more

The Terrapin Syndrome

by publius In thinking about the semi-panicked reaction of many Dems this morning, I thought back to the Maryland basketball team. This analogy won’t work well for non-college basketball fans, but bear with me. When I was in law school (circa 2003), the Maryland squad got beaten regularly by Duke. It wasn’t just that Duke … Read more

Factchecking Palin

by hilzoy I thought Palin’s speech was quite good: well-written, well delivered. And, as I said earlier, I think she’s a genuinely engaging person, and comes across very well. There were just a couple of problems. One, which I have seen people notice, but which I suspect won’t be a big deal for a lot … Read more

Quick Thoughts

by publius I’m not going to say a lot tonight — honestly, I’m not sure what I think yet. But here are some very quick thoughts, with more to come tomorrow. First, I think Josh Marshall gets it exactly right — they’ve opted for a pure base rallying strategy. The main speeches were, for whatever … Read more

Guest Post: Just A Hunch

A guest post by our regular commenter dr ngo.

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JUST A HUNCH

by Dr Ngo

I have been unwell recently (nothing serious, just debilitating and distracting), and have not followed recent political events nearly as assiduously as many others have. But between sleeping and waking and dozing and dreaming, an insight struck me, inspired by the comments of that consummate political hack David Brooks.

He suggested – or so I recollect, and that is all that matters here – that McCain’s selection of Palin reflected a mutuality of spirit and temperament, with each of them inhabiting an essentially moral [sic] universe, and to the devil with the details. This, he thought, was Just The Thing when it came to foreign policy, and the evil that is Putin (or Islamofascism, or any other Evil Du Jour). OTOH, it might be a handicap when it came to the plodding competence required to piece together a health plan or economic policy, where the Democrats might have the upper hand. On balance, he was concerned about the balance of the ticket.

Many observers, not least on ObWi, have remarked that McCain is a gambler, a “hunch player,” and that the naming of the unvetted Palin is just the latest and most conspicuous example of this flaw. It bespeaks (we say) a lack of judgment, the very quality McCain is supposed to exhibit supremely over the untested Obama.

But in the context of American politics, I fear, this analysis is wrong.

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Huck Fever

by publius Mike Huckabee is delivering a fantastic speech. I don’t really understand why McCain didn’t give him more serious consideration if he wanted to win over social conservatives. It’s not merely that he’s a good speaker — he has a compelling populism weaved into it. He was also re-elected as governor and could have … Read more

Tell Us What You Really Think…

by hilzoy Via TPM, what Peggy Noonan, Mike Murphy, and Chuck Todd say about the Sarah Palin pick when they think the mic is off: Transcript: “Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys — this … Read more

The Next Rounds

by publius This is nothing other than a gut feeling, but I suspect Palin may have survived the early-round knockout that seemed possible just a day or two ago. The AIP story has not checked out. Also, I get the distinct sense in watching the coverage last night that the McCain campaign has successfully pushed … Read more

Osmosis

by hilzoy Every so often, I run across an argument so manifestly absurd that I think: wow, this isn’t just spin and deception, this is performance art. Today I found just such an argument, made by Frank Gaffney: “Speaking of geography, Alaskan territory is also along the trajectory of ballistic missiles launched eastward out of … Read more

Palin And The AIP: Update

by hilzoy While I was out this afternoon, the McCain campaign released records showing that Sarah Palin was not registered as a member of the Alaska Independence Party, though TPM Muckraker found that her husband was. Now the main source for the story that Sarah Palin was a party member is backing off his earlier … Read more

Why It Matters

by publius As Hilzoy correctly pointed out, the real significance of McCain’s Russian Roulette blind VP nomination is that it reflects upon his judgment and illustrates that he will govern on the fly. Yglesias adds another crucial point, and I’ll just quote him: Looking at the Sarah Palin debacle, one is reminded that one of … Read more

John Didn’t Get What He Wanted

by hilzoy From the NYT: “A Republican with ties to the campaign said the team assigned to vet Ms. Palin in Alaska had not arrived there until Thursday, a day before Mr. McCain stunned the political world with his vice-presidential choice. The campaign was still calling Republican operatives as late as Sunday night asking them … Read more

T’s Uncrossed, I’s Undotted

by publius Even assuming the Palin post-selection vetting turns out ok, it’s still looking more like a disaster. It just completely undermines McCain’s strongest argument, which is that Obama lacks the experience necessary to lead. The contradiction is starting to bear some poisonous fruit. Check out (via TPM) this Campbell Brown interview of Tucker Bounds, … Read more

Sarah Palin’s Children

by hilzoy Sarah Palin on her daughter’s pregnancy: “”We have been blessed with five wonderful children who we love with all our heart and mean everything to us. Our beautiful daughter Bristol came to us with news that as parents we knew would make her grow up faster than we had ever planned. We’re proud … Read more

Borderline

by hilzoy This is amazing: “On Saturday, a Democrat tasked with opposition research contacted the Huffington Post with this piece of information: as of this weekend, the McCain campaign had not gone through old newspaper articles from the Valley Frontiersman, Palin’s hometown newspaper. How does he know? The paper’s (massive) archives are not online. And … Read more

More on “Executive” Experience

by publius I want to elaborate a bit on Hilzoy’s arguments below. One of the more frustrating arguments I’ve been hearing is that Palin has more experience than Obama — in particular, more “executive” experience. I’m sorry, but that argument is absurd — though it’s not immediately obvious why. After all, she was a mayor … Read more