Foreign Affairs

Cyberwar for Beginners

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by publius Via Wired and Dear Mister Lewis, I saw this interesting "guide" that provides tips on how to help Iranian bloggers and twitterers.  Kind of puts recent events on our own blog into perspective.  Here's a sample: Do NOT publicise proxy IP’s over twitter, and especially not using the #iranelection hashtag. Security forces are … Read more

Pictures

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by publius The Boston Globe's "Big Picture" has a photo gallery of the latest from Iran that's worth checking out (via the Lede).  Some of them are rather disturbing though.  This one, however, stood out (click for larger image):  

The Limits of Twitter

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by publius Twitter is obviously one of the big stories to come out of the Iranian election.  And it's been a remarkable development — no argument there.  The tweets have been inspiring and courageous.  And there's an aesthetic dimension to them that's hard to resist. But understand… the tweets could be stopped (more on that … Read more

The Tragedy in Iran

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by publius Like hilzoy, I wish I had something more profound to add to the Iran coverage.  At the moment, I'm just trying to digest everything from those with a better sense of what's happening and what it all means. But personally speaking, the overwhelming emotion I've had is simply sadness.  It's just an incredibly … Read more

Encouraging Signals on Settlements

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by publius I must say that I've been encouraged by the Obama administration's public stance on Israeli settlements.  Obama has made it a point to emphasize that settlement growth must stop.  And Clinton used even stronger language: Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said, “He wants to see a stop to settlements — not some … Read more

Escalation in Afghanistan

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by publius This is why I’m skeptical of the military escalation in Afghanistan.  It’s very easy for me to imagine even more escalation, but very hard to imagine scaling operations down if they’re not going well.  Plus, we don’t really know if we’re doing well because we have no defined exit strategy, benchmarks, or any … Read more

Ominous Canary Songs

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by publius (Cross-posted at WashMonthly. I’m not going to cross-post everything, but wanted to get people’s thoughts here on this). Count me among the skeptical of Obama's new Afghanistan strategy. What really worries me is what I'll call the "reverse canary" problem. Simply put, the wrong people are too happy. You're all familiar with the … Read more

All That Chas

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by publius I haven’t been able to weigh in on Chas Freeman (or much of anything lately) because of work, but it was a pretty sorry spectacle. There is, however, one silver lining. By being so hysterical, the anti-Freeman camp implicitly acknowledged the weakness of – and lack of self-confidence in – their arguments. Generally … Read more

A Question

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by publius Before I descend into a snarky rant, I thought I should seek some guidance from the masses about this (from the WSJ): U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized plans to demolish 88 Palestinian homes in Jerusalem that Israel says were built without permits. Days before Mrs. Clinton arrived on a visit to … Read more

America’s Beinart Problem

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by publius A childhood friend of mine had a brilliant strategy to avoid losing basketball games.  Actually, he always lost them, so it was more like a brilliant strategy to convince himself that he didn’t lose.  After we’d score the last points, he’d immediately grab the ball and say “if I hit this, I win.”  … Read more

Joe the Plumber in Israel

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by publius There doesn't seem to be an embed option, but it's worth your time to watch this 2 minute dispatch from Joe the Plumber, reporter, taunting the press reporting live from Israel. Best line – "Oh…Reuters."

Lovely

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by publius The state of domestic Israeli politics continues on its hyper-nationalist descent into madness: The Central Elections Committee on Monday banned Arab political parties from running in next month's parliamentary elections, drawing accusations of racism by an Arab lawmaker who said he would challenge the decision in the country's Supreme Court. The ruling, made … Read more

Moral Clarity

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by publius Charles Krauthammer: Some geopolitical conflicts are morally complicated. The Israel-Gaza war is not. It possesses a moral clarity not only rare but excruciating. Israel is so scrupulous about civilian life that, risking the element of surprise, it contacts enemy noncombatants in advance to warn them of approaching danger. Today’s Post: The International Committee … Read more

Through the Iron Cage

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by publius

I haven’t waded in too deeply into Gaza – largely because I’ve been holiday traveling. I did, though, happen to be reading Rashid Khalidi’s most excellent The Iron Cage, which provides some interesting longer-term perspective on the ongoing tragedy. Below, then, are just a few scattered thoughts on the book that are hopefully relevant to recent events. (Khalidi is the moderate and well-respected scholar that McCain shamelessly attacked in the closing days of the election).

To begin, what really becomes clear in reading The Iron Cage is how profoundly ignorant Americans (including me) are about the region and its history. And the ignorance exists on many different levels.

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Heckuva Job

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by publius Another ringing empirical endorsement of the Kagan/Kristol worldview via the NYT’s article on Somalia: In 2006, Islamist troops teamed up with clan elders and businessmen to drive out the warlords who had been preying upon Somalia’s people since the central government first collapsed in 1991. The six months the Islamists ruled Mogadishu turned … Read more

Terrorism’s Perverse Success?

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by publius There are many enraging aspects of the Mumbai terrorist attacks. The worst, though, is the sobering realization that terrorism can be wildly successful. A few preliminary points though: For now, I’m rejecting the idea that Mumbai was a new breed of “celebrity terrorists” who are essentially nihilistic (via abu m). I’m assuming the … Read more

Centrist Like a Fox

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by publius To follow up on Hilzoy (and Yglesias), I too was encouraged by the NYT report that Obama’s national security team wants to shift resources away from the bloated military budget to fund other diplomatic initiatives. It’s encouraging not merely for its own sake, but because it reassures skeptics like me that Clinton and … Read more

By Their Fruits, Ye Shall Know Who’s Right

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by publius Big news today from Afghanistan. The WSJ reported that the US is now “actively considering” direct talks with the Taliban to negotiate stemming the violence. The article notes that this idea is supported by McCain’s second best friend in the whole wide world – David the General (Petraeus). And it makes sense that … Read more

Obama and the Peace Process

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by publius As I mentioned earlier, I really enjoyed the New America panel this morning (“Can the Next President Make the Middle East Irrelevant?”). There were several interesting takeaways, but I’ll try to limit them to one post at a time. Frankly, I think Zogby made one of the most thoughtful observations (Zogby is on … Read more

Foreign Policy ADD

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by hilzoy This post from Undiplomatic provides a quick illustration of why Foreign Policy ADD is a Very Bad Thing. It’s called “Russia – Georgia: The Big Winner”: “Iran. 1. The neocons are so distracted by the new meme of Russia as Nazi Germany, they’ve forgotten all about their old meme of Iran as Nazi … Read more

McCain and the “Last War”

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by publius liukin

I want to follow up on Hilzoy’s last post. Of all the McCain gaffes, I think yesterday’s is arguably the most significant — and the most troubling. In case you missed it, McCain said:

My friends, we have reached a crisis, the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War. This is an act of aggression.

At first glance, it’s just a silly misinformed statement. But if you look a bit deeper, there are some very interesting and problematic assumptions lurking beneath. Over the past week, McCain and his excitable supporters have cited his “muscular” response to Georgia as something voters should consider this fall. Actually, I agree with that — it’s just that I think it shows why McCain should never be president. Specifically, it shows that McCain — and his policies — are stuck in the past. He is a Cold War candidate in a post-Cold War world.

“Fighting the last war” is a thread that runs throughout military history. Civil War generals used Napoleonic tactics that led to slaughter in the face of new technology (interestingly, the end of the Civil War saw early forms of trench warfare). At the beginning of World War I, cavalry units on horseback charged Gatling guns. The point is that, in the face of new conflict, military leaders throughout history have seen it through the lenses of the past, often with tragic results.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing with McCain — both in response to the Georgia crisis and to foreign policy more generally. Like the neocons surrounding him, McCain’s worldview was forged in the fires of the Cold War. To him, foreign policy is essentially about nation-states, some of which are evil, some of which are good. In McCain’s eyes, there’s always an imperialist existential threat threatening to expand and gobble up the world. Yesterday it was communism. Today it’s “Islamofascism.” Tomorrow, probably China.

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Country First

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by publius

Like the presumptive Democratic nominee, I went on vacation around the time the Georgia mess started. But Hilzoy and Eric have done a fantastic job covering the ins and outs this week. I wanted to weigh in though from a somewhat different perspective.

For me, it’s been fascinating to watch the militant anti-Russia critiques from McCain and the neocon usual suspects. What’s interesting is not so much the intensity of the critiques, but the underlying similarities between the neocons and the Russians. More precisely, what’s interesting are the parallels between neocon thought and the thought that led the Russians to attack (or counter-attack). In short, both are motivated by militant nationalism.

I mean, let’s imagine if Bill Kristol could be magically transformed into a Russian. And let’s say that the Russian Kristol saw the following happen over the years: (1) the Soviet Union collapsed; (2) NATO and the West began militarily encircling a country whose foreign policy has been obsessed for 60 years with avoiding another WW2-style invasion; (3) NATO humiliated an impotent Russia by bombing the holy crap out of Serbia and then supporting independence for Kosovo; (4) a hated uber-nationalist neighbor (Georgia) wanted to join this military alliance (NATO!); (5) said hated neighbor launched an attack essentially rubbing Russia’s nose in it.

What exactly do you think Kristolovich would recommend? Respect for territorial sovereignty?

No, he’d recommend pretty much what he’s recommending now, just with the countries reversed. That’s what militant nationalists do. They convince themselves of their own unambiguous superiority. Once that point is established, everything else flows logically. Because we’re so good, we can use force whenever and wherever we want. We won’t be excessive of course, because we’re constitutionally incapable of being wrong.

These militant nationalists also share a paranoid sense of decline. The great nation is always in danger of being overrun or embarrassed. There’s always some threat among us. Thus, there’s always some need to re-establish our strength and greatness – preferably through force. Because we’re so good.

My point is that the problem with the Russia response is, at bottom, the same problem with the response to the response. That problem is nationalism. Russia is doing exactly what the neocons want America and Israel to do.

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NATO

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by hilzoy In this post, I want to develop an argument I’ve been making sporadically in comments. I think it is a wonderful, wonderful thing that it has become unthinkable that Russia would invade Western Europe. It wasn’t always that way: certainly not in the immediate aftermath of World War II; arguably not until the … Read more

What Did We Tell Georgia?, Take 2

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by hilzoy A couple of days ago, I wrote about Georgia’s assault on South Ossetia: “It is hard to believe either that we didn’t know this was going to happen, or that we used our leverage to prevent it. And that is inexcusable. Thousands of people are dead, the freedom of action of Russia’s neighbors … Read more

Georgia: Quick Thoughts

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by hilzoy A few more random quick thoughts: (1) As various people have pointed out, it is always and everywhere Munich in 1938, if you happen to be a neoconservative. It’s the foreign policy equivalent of Groundhog Day. (2) To those people who are suggesting that it’s time to go to war for plucky Georgia: … Read more

Obama And McCain On Georgia

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by hilzoy Yesterday, Jonathan Martin published a piece called: McCain prescient on Russia? “When violence broke out in the Caucasus on Friday morning, John McCain quickly issued a statement that was far more strident toward the Russians than that of President Bush, Barack Obama and much of the West. But, as Russian warplanes pounded Georgian … Read more

What Did We Tell Georgia?

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by hilzoy If this is true, whoever is responsible should be banned from foreign policy for the rest of his or her natural life: “Mr Saakashvilli may also have banked on support from his closest ally, US president George W Bush, whose administration is said to have given tacit support for a Georgian assault on … Read more

Georgia

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by hilzoy

First, a bit of levity on a very serious subject: apparently, this map actually ran next to a story on (the present conflict in the former Soviet Socialist Republic of) Georgia (h/t Ezra):

Georgiagooglegoofsmall

Now, the NYT:

“Russian troops that had poured into the disputed territory of South Ossetia moved to enclave’s boundary with Georgia on Sunday, witnesses said, as the conflict appeared to be developing into the worst clashes between Russia and a foreign military since the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Overnight, Russia landed ground troops off of warships into the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign to the Georgian capital’s airport.

The Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe said Georgia was ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but a top Russian defense official said no formal offer had been received.

Georgian authorities said Sunday morning that they expect Russian attacks to come on three fronts — from Gali and Zugdidi, two spots on the Abkhazian border, and from Ossetia, according to Gigi Ugulada, the mayor of Tbilisi. They also expect more bombing on the Kodori Gorge, the only part of Abkhazia that remains under Georgian control.

Witness reports from the border between South Ossetia and Georgia suggested that Russian forces had moved up to the winding, disputed boundary line.

But a top Russian defense official said Sunday that Russia had no immediate plans to move troops into Georgia.”

This is, obviously, very worrying. I suppose the good news is that Russia does not yet seem to have moved ground troops into non-disputed parts of Georgia. The bad news is that they have not only moved into South Ossetia, but into Abkhazia as well; and are bombing undisputed parts of Georgia, including an airport near the capital. (Note: the reason I’m distinguishing between Russia attacking South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the one hand, and other parts of Georgia on the other, is not because I think that attacks on the former are somehow OK. It’s that in situations like this, there are natural lines where someone might stop, and it’s worth paying attention to whether or not they have been crossed. Sending ground troops into non-disputed parts of Georgia constitutes crossing such a line.)

Putin:

“Russian PM Vladimir Putin earlier suggested it was unlikely that South Ossetia would re-integrate with the rest of Georgia, saying the country’s territorial integrity had “suffered a fatal blow”.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine is reserving the right to bar Russian warships from returning to Ukranian ports that Russia has leased. (Some of those ships are positioning themselves around Georgia’s coast.) The UN Security Council is meeting but not getting anywhere, which is not that surprising in view of the fact that Russia is one of its permanent members. The US “warned Sunday that “disproportionate” actions against Georgia could have a “significant long term impact on U.S.-Russian relations.”” Western European governments have also been very critical of Russia. A group of US and European envoys is heading to Georgia to try to negotiate a truce. Meanwhile, the fighting continues.

Thoughts and good references below the fold.

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Uh Oh

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by hilzoy Eric already wrote about South Ossetia, so I’ll just note the other very bad development of the day: “A move by the civilian leadership on Thursday to impeach President Pervez Musharraf left Pakistan on the brink of a political crisis that threatened to paralyze the government at a critical moment when the United … Read more

Clueless

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by hilzoy Cernig at Newshoggers posted an excerpt from a McClatchy article on Pakistan that includes this astonishing statement: “”One thing we never understood is that India has always been the major threat for Pakistan,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Wendy Chamberlain, now the president of the Middle East Institute.” Just. Shoot. Me. Now. … Read more

What Yglesias Said

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by publius I think this post succinctly captures the absurdity behind the whole “the surge won the war” wave that’s sweeping across Republican circles — and of course, elite media opinion. (And don’t forget our own Eric Martin here and here).

A Real “Hero”

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by publius I must confess I haven’t followed Israel’s looming prisoner exchange closely. But maybe someone could explain why I shouldn’t be disgusted at Lebanon’s “hero’s welcome” for a man who once bashed in the skull of a 4-year old girl with the butt of his rifle. Am I missing something?

McCain On Afghanistan

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by hilzoy Yesterday, Josh Marshall wrote: “Obama has been saying for almost a year that more troops are needed in Afghanistan. McCain has said that wasn’t the case, that Iraq was the central battleground in the war on terror. Moreover, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs says that we need more troops in Afghanistan but … Read more

Diplomacy 101

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by hilzoy Looking around at the reaction to Bush’s parting remarks at the G8, I find, not to my surprise, some responses like this, from Samizdata: “Apparently, the humourless twerps who lead many of the world’s main industrial nations got a touch of the vapours over these parting remarks from the President as he left … Read more