Bill Jouris

by wj As we keep hearing, drone aircraft are supposed to become an Amazon delivery option. And already they are spreading to hobbyists. Unfortunately, effective controls over who flies a drone, where, and with what kinds of skill are still notable mostly by their absense. Will we have to wait for a serious accident to … Read more

by wj At the moment, there is some (OK, substantial, and rising) doubt as to whether Congress will get its act together and raise the Federal debt ceiling by the end of the month. The obvious question would be: So what? Skip over, for the moment, the obvious impact on the “full faith and credit” … Read more

wj It’s been too long since we kicked off a new Open Thread, so here we go. Since 1984, turnout in presidential elections has ranged from 49 to 57 percent of eligible adults; since 1986, turnout in midterms has ranged from 36 to 39 percent. What does that mean for US politics and policy? Basically this: … Read more

by wj Might a government shutdown be a good thing? At least relatively speaking. In the comments about Speaker Boehner’s plan to step down next month, one consistent theme has been that at least this will allow him to avert a government shutdown this week. The reason being that he won’t have to worry about … Read more

by wj “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.” And now, alas, it is. 🙁

by wj Our discussions of politics tend (perhaps understandably) to be rather US-focused. So here’s something a little different. With the election of Jeremy Corbyn as party leader, Britain’s Labour Party seems to be emulating the US’ Republican Party in stepping away from the center. How much difference will it make in the results that … Read more

by wj “‘Tis better to have lived and loafed, than never to have loafed at all.” Discuss

by wj OK, we need a new open thread. I get that. So here ya go. Once upon a time, I read a science fiction story which featured a group called “Control Normals”. (No, I don’t recall who the author was or what the title was. Perhaps one of the SF fans here will remember.) … Read more

by wj Last night we had the traditional annual family gathering to celebrate the birthdays of all of us born in late July and early August. (Which amounts to nearly half of us.) As always, the conversation ranged far and wide. But at one point, someone mentioned a colleague who is a conspiracy theory enthusiast. … Read more

by wj What do these two “countries” have in common? Officially, they don’t exist. In reality, of course, both control substantial swaths of territory (which used to be part of another country, which is collapsed or collapsing), are relatively well governed democracies, and have economies in far better shape than that of the country that … Read more

by wj This was just too good not to share: “We wouldn’t get on a plane if there was a 5% chance of the plane crashing, but we’re treating the climate with that same level of risk in a very offhand, complacent way.” — Nick Robins Also: “Investors currently face a stark choice. Either they … Read more

by wj The Economist Intelligence Unit offers a running series of papers on various industries. Recently, they produced one on Technology’s impact on emerging-market supply chains. An entire section was devoted to looking at how 3-D printing would transform manufacturing. Much of it was mildly insightful — nothing radical, but sensible. And then there was … Read more

by wj I neglected to set up an open thread for the weekend — lulled by the fact that everybody stopped posting comments on July 3rd. Oops. Anyway, here’s something that Thompson posted to the old thread, which seems worth a thread of its own. thompson: www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2015/0706/Can-Bernie-Sanders-find-middle-ground-on-guns-video I disagree with Sanders on a lot of … Read more

by wj This week, for the first time, a Melissa Mayeux registered for Major League Baseball’s international registration list — which makes her the first woman to be eligible to play major league baseball in the United States. Or course, the young lady is French, not American. Why not? Because, in the US, women play … Read more

by wj In his column yesterday (Why Saudi Arabia Can’t get a Nuclear Weapon), Fareed Zakaria makes the case why a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is unlikely. His main arguments: a) Nobody, even Pakistan, would be willing to sell them one. The price of becoming an international pariah is just too steep. … Read more

by wj Warning: a big part of this post is going to be about sex. So if you don’t want to even think about that, skip the post and just go with the Open Thread part. One of this week’s big stories, apparently, revolved around Caitlyn Jenner. But a lot of the reason for its … Read more

by wj “There is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these [factual] questions than those who don’t watch any news at all.” [emphasis added] If you’re thinking that was written by stalwart Democratic partisan, you can be forgiven; but you are flat wrong. Bruce Bartlett is a veteran of … Read more

by wj Synergy can be defined as the interaction of two inputs to produce a greater impact than either alone. Or, to put it another way, as two phenomena which reinforce each other. Earlier this week, there was a Conversation on Poverty panel discussion at Georgetown University. It included religious leaders, who seem to be … Read more

by wj Obviously past time for a new one of these again.

by wj The “broken windows” theory of policing was made widely known by the policies implemented in the 1990s by William Bratton in New York City. Basically, it suggests that small crimes (e.g. vandalism, public drinking and toll-jumping) going without response leads to major crimes. And that dealing visibly with small crimes helps to create … Read more

by wj One of the on-going problems for numerous governments, from Chicago to Greece, is that they have made big pension commitments without setting aside sufficient funds to meet them. (As distinct from those, like Social Security, which were basically designed to pay-as-you-go.) Pensions are funded based two parameters: demographic data on how long people … Read more

by wj A couple of years ago, California modified it’s primary election process — via an initiative, necessarily. Josh Richman has a column in the local paper today on the impact of that new system. Money quote: California’s top-two primary system and independently drawn legislative districts took effect in 2012. The new primary pits candidates … Read more

by wj In today’s news, the talks with Iran have reached an agreement. Here is the State Department statement on the agreement. At a quick glance, it appears that Iran has basically given the other side pretty much everything that they were asking. And sanctions are being lifted only after Iran has met its committments … Read more

by wj Writing about the current mess in Yemen, Fareed Zakaria says, in part: This is the pattern that has produced terrorism in the Arab world. Repressive, secular regimes — backed by the West — become illegitimate. Over time they become more repressive to survive and the opposition becomes more extreme and violent. The space … Read more

by wj You just can’t make upstuff like this. At least, my imagination can’t manage it. The Des Moines Register reports today that Senator Cruz will be signing up for Obamacare. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/24/ted-cruz-health-insurance-obamacare/70384334/ It seems that his wife is taking leave from Goldman Sachs to support his campaign. So he can no longer be on her … Read more

by wj In today’s Washington Post: War With Iran Is Probably Our Best Option. The author, Joshua Muravchik, might be the poster child for the movement from the far left to the far right. Going from National Chairman of the Young People’s Socialist League in the late 1960s and early 1970s to a board member … Read more

by wj I think it more likely than not that Hilary Clinton’s candidacy will survive this latest contremps over her using a private e-mail account during her tenure as Secretary of State. (Unless evidence turns up of a significant security breach. At that point, all bets are off.) There’s just too much history of the … Read more

by wj I don’t know when the talks with Iran over nuclear weapons will conclude. Maybe they finish by the latest deadline. Maybe they go thru some more extensions. But eventually they will end. And there are only a few ways that they can end. In rough order of probability (as I see it): They … Read more

guest post by wj Note: this is not to say that they cannot win a tactical victory, and take over the Senate next week. Apparently they are odds on favorites to do just that. But let’s look at the possible outcomes of next week’s election: 1)Democrats somehow hold on to their majority, however tenuously. 2)The … Read more

by regular commenter wj A recent blog post at the Economist looks at a comparison of the financial impact of obesity. And compares it to the impact of a college education. (The Swedish study that they look at finds them to be of the same magnitude. (And even being just overweight apparently has negatives, just … Read more