Moe Lane

A Prediction.

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Something to keep an eye out for: if by the time of the Democratic convention the delegate situation is such that no one candidate has quite enough to win – or one does, but he’s on the razor’s edge – and you see a report that calls into question the delegate selection methods of any … Read more

An Ode to the Unknown Muse

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I guess it was the iambic pentameter comment earlier that set this off: ObWi does have a definite poetical flavor to it. Or maybe doggerel – not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course. Hear me, o Muse. No, wait, a problem there That weighs upon our blogs with leaden strain; For in that … Read more

Today was a fairly dull day.

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Thank God. I’ve had my fill of exciting ones, and I suspect so have most of the rest of y’all. Here’s to many more dull, boring days. Moe PS: Call this an open thread, not that you guys ever needed an excuse to tangent. Neither do I, now that I think about it.

Definition of Philistine:

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No doubt it’d be “someone who accesses Brad DeLong’s website to find the link to this: Flame Warriors.” I mean, it wasn’t even from one of his posts (a somewhat interesting one, mind, all about comments and trolls and deleting and so forth): it was just another comment in the thread. Alas. Alack. There is … Read more

61 is a Magic Number

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So it doesn’t scan like the original. Sue me… after we talk about why it’s a magic number.

(Numbers via The Green Papers)

We start with the number 4,322, which is the total number of delegates showing up for the Democratic Convention this summer. Somebody’s got to get 2,162 – half of the total, plus 1 – of them voting for him (alas, it’s unlikely to be any her this year) to win the nomination. Remember that number: 2,162. However, of that 4,322, 802 delegates are superdelegates that are not chosen through the primary process. So, let’s get rid of them for right now: that leaves us with 3,520 delegates who are chosen as per procedures and are pledged to vote for whatever candidate they represent for at least the first vote. Let’s repeat that number, too: 3,520.

So, let’s say that you’re a candidate that wants to make sure of the nomination. The only absolutely certain way to do that is to get at least your half-plus-one from the pool of the delegates obligated to vote a specific way on the first ballot. That’s 2,162 of 3,520, or 61% (rounded off) of the total. 61 is thus your magic number: as long as you are consistently getting at least that many of the delegates, success is assured, with no compromises or deals necessary.

This is where it gets complicated.

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The Revolution Will Be Somethinged…

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Jonah Goldberg is in the process of dissing the blogosphere’s influence in the electoral process: The internet is a wonderful thing, but it ain’t no Brave New World for electoral politics — yet. And it probably won’t be until we have online voting. And if we do get that, it will be a revolution all … Read more

Ah, the Social Sciences…

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… there’s a paper or three in the situation found here, I’m sure – especially given that most of the people involved in this are probably fairly average teenage males. Only that particular demographic would see the point of virtual prostitution rings. (Via Lincoln Cat)

Cheney rumor.

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Because, SotU or no SotU, the blogging must go on. Besides, everybody else is parsing it to death and beyond.

Citizen Smash has posted a rumor that Cheney’s going to not serve a second term; granted, he already said that he would (and Bush has already said that he’d be on the ticket), but considering Cheney’s history of heart disease that’s not a particular problem. The idea is to have a healthy Vice President, after all.

Let me just note three things about this:

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Showstoppers

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I just finished reading this particular Weekly Standard article (“Showstoppers”, by Richard H. Shultz Jr.) on why Special Forces were not used before 9/11, and it’s an eye-opener. How much of one? Let me put it this way: I’m going to be surprised if the official 9/11 report ends up being half as useful.

The central thesis of this article is simple: the Clinton administration was repeatedly stymied by attitudes and policies from both bureaucracies (civilian and military) that made it impossible for any meaningful counterterrrorism activities to take place in the realm of Special Forces. Shultz breaks down the problems into 9 basic categories:

(UPDATE: On behalf of all of us here at Obsidian Wings I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome all those visiting from Instapundit. I hope that you’ll find the site interesting, entertaining and informative. Canape?)

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Good News / Bad News for Dean

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Bad news: a tactical error involving the failure to set up a MLK day photo-op ahead of time got noted. Should it have been? Nope, but it was anyway. I have a lot of sympathy for people who hate the media, as I’m not too fond of it myself; I just wish that people would … Read more

I Love Taranto’s BotW to death…

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… but sometimes he stretches just a bit to justify adding things like this: Cartoon Laws of Physics. It’s OK, James: you don’t need to pretend anymore. You’re becoming a geek. It’s inevitable, and nothing to be ashamed of. Here, read up on Evil Overlords, too. You’ll be going through that stage anyway, so you … Read more

Notice What’s Missing?

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From this Salt Lake Tribune article about Kurdish bootlegging from Iraq to Iran?

That’s right, what’s missing is any indication that the CDA, the American military or the Provisional Council give a flying leap about this. Indeed, this particular version of the article includes text omitted from the SLT, for some odd reason:

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Consider the Platypus.

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While I myself recognize the validity of the theory of evolution, I must admit that these people at UDN have some juice behind their theories, assuming of course that you believe in an deity that can’t help but fiddle with the squishy bits every so often. Personally, I like my Creator a bit more concentrating on the Big Picture and letting us get on with our lives, but that’s just me.

(This got sent to me by the atheistic physicist living in my basement. Excuse me, the atheistic physicist with a PhD living in my basement, thank you very much.)

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The Inevitable MLK Day Post.

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If you haven’t reread the speech today, I invite you to go ahead: it’s a good one with a powerful message. I was born in 1970, which means that the most important battles of the civil rights movement were things I grew up reading in the newer civics and history books. It also means that … Read more

The Inevitable SotU Link.

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It’s time, once again, for the SotU drinking game. Useful additions welcome below: for the sake of balance, couple an cliche from the Other Side to drink to with a cliche from your own. (Also via Instapundit)

The Inevitable Iowa Post.

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Kaus sums up the weirdness of the Iowa cauci… caucuses (sorry, James, but the other way looked too much like I was describing sealants made out of desert vegetation) very well. Shorter Micky Kaus: no number that you’ll hear today will really mean anything, and everybody knows it, but it’s Iowa’s only chance to shine … Read more

I Still hate partisan political books.

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Michael Totten has a pretty good post up on Pundits And The Stupid Books That They Write. The latest representation of this trend is Sean Hannity’s new book, whose title alone (Deliver us from Evil: Defeating Terrorism, Despotism, and Liberalism) is highly obnoxious if not actively pernicious in its attempts to brand 30-50% of the … Read more

Why, thanks. No. Really.

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On behalf of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy I’d just like to thank those feisty scamps over at Whitehouse.org for doing their bit to highlight Bush’s ongoing break with the last, lingering elements of racism in our party. Being reminded that President Bush has done his part to ensure that African-Americans have a say at the … Read more

Well, I’m back.

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We were able to catch an early flight, so we’re back and ignoring laundry until tomorrow. I am proud to say that I was successfully able to ignore all sources of news during that time, with the exception of this blog. I’ll have resumed playing Righty counterpoint by tomorrow, just as soon as I catch … Read more

Arisia report

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Having a good time and a bad net connection, so I’ll just note this as an example of the kinds of materials that I’m being exposed to at the convention. No, nobody’s dared stage it as of yet, as far as I know.

EXTREMELY Light Posting…

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… as in, “I may get one or two more in before bedtime and then see you all in a few days”. By this time tomorrow I’ll be in Boston at the Arisia SF convention and won’t be back home until Sunday, and I seem to have misjudged just how much free time I have … Read more

Not Blister Gas.

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In an update to this post, Reuters is reporting that the Danish army has checked out the mortar rounds foundl initial tests have determined them to be not chemical gas rounds. We’ll get them next for followup tests, but I doubt that this finding will be reversed. End result, updated? Again, nothing much in regards … Read more

More Chances to Mock Moe!

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Vodkapundit’s running through some electoral vote calculations, ranging from a Republican win to a Democratic one. I love fiddling with stuff like that: if I can find one of those electoral map calculators to link to it’s going up on the side over there (yeah, I know about the one at dKos already). I’m also … Read more

The Latest from Iran

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Short version: the hardliners in Iran decided to ban quite a lot of reformist candidates from running from office, which was naturally enough objected to: it looks like said objections had gotten enough support to resolve this particular crisis. But just this one: the problems haven’t gone away. I think I got that all right. … Read more

I Further Predict…

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… that Derbyshire is going to catch sixteen kinds of hell for this National Review article: The Irish of the World. I mean, the title alone is going to piss a lot of people off, simply because there’s a little voice in the back of the head of every Irish-American who’s made his or her … Read more

I Predict that No Woman Will Be Surprised…

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… to hear that a certain python recently reported as being the longest in the world didn’t, um, measure up to expectations. The truly sad part is that Reuters and I both thought up the bad joke independently of each other. Who should be more chagrined about this is still up in the air. (Via … Read more

Let’s not be hasty

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Outside the Beltway pointed out this Matt Yglesias post on what we should really do with this $1.5 Billion that we’re apparently spending because it’s an election year to ‘strengthen marriage’: I think the president really ought to consider establishing a Cabinet-level Federal Dating Service or something. It could be like Friendster and a goofy … Read more

Temporary Power-Up.

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It won’t last, but it looks like the links generated by Katherine’s excellent Maher Arar posts have pushed us over into Marauding Marsupial territory for the first time. Katherine rules! (pause) OK, question for the more experienced bloggers reading this: it’s been two months since we started, more or less. Average daily traffic 948, last … Read more

Learning all my holy moves doing some research.

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A random comment by Reader praktike reminded me to note that this Monitor-With-Obsessive,-Luskin-Like-Blog-Stalking,-Snarky-Emails-and-Carping-Criticism Adopt-A-Journalist program really does seem to be taking off (timeline here – some other info here). Just note which Democratic candidate you’re voting for with each email you send out, guys, that’s all I ask. Much obliged.

I can hear their ukeleles playing

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Possibly it’s due to the two beers I’ve had tonight, but the only thing that pops into my head from this Kos Diary story that suggests that Dean is about to get the crucial Jimmy Carter endorsement is “Why the heck isn’t Dean getting endorsements from Democrats that have actually, like, won Presidential elections?” Granted, … Read more