A Really, Really Bad Idea

From the Boston Globe, via Steve Gilliard: “The US military is drawing up plans to keep insurgents from regaining control of this battle-scarred city, but returning residents may find that the measures make Fallujah look more like a police state than the democracy they have been promised. Under the plans, troops would funnel Fallujans to … Read more

Losing The War Of Ideas

Via Salon comes word of a scathing report (warning: long pdf) by a Pentagon advisory task force on strategic communication. Acccording to the Salon article, the Task Force, which was convened by the Department of Defense, “had unfettered access, denied to journalists, to the inner workings of the national security apparatus, and interviewed scores of officials. The mission was not to find fault, but to suggest constructive improvements. There was no intent to contribute to public debate, much less political controversy; the report was written only for internal consumption.” They also had access to a lot of data on public opinion in the Middle East.

Strategic communication is, basically, how we get our message out to the world, specifically (for this report) the Islamic world. This topic is obviously important: if we want to fight terrorism, we need to undercut sympathy for terrorist groups in the Islamic world, both in order to deny those groups recruits and to minimize the number of people who are willing to support them or turn a blind eye to their activities. To the extent that we convey a clear and attractive message to the Islamic world, we undercut support for terrorist groups that aim to harm us; to the extent that we are hated, we provide support for them. The report is very critical of administration efforts to communicate its message to the Islamic world, not only because they have been ineffective but because they lack “sustained Presidential direction, effective interagency coordination, optimal private sector partnerships, and adequate resources. Tactical message coordination does not equate with strategic planning and evaluation. Personal commitment by top leaders has not been matched by needed changes in the organizations they lead or in a dysfunctional interagency process.”

The report also argues that our problems in getting our message across to the Islamic world “are consequences of factors other than failure to implement communications strategies. Interests collide. Leadership counts. Policies matter. Mistakes dismay our friends and provide enemies with unintentional assistance.” This is an obvious, though important, point: while people sometimes talk as though it’s possible to spin anything, public relations are always made much easier when you are actually doing good and valuable things for your target audience, or at least not harming or humiliating them in obvious and visible ways.

In particular, the report’s authors argue that a large part of the problem is that we have too often thought of the war on terror as though it were a new Cold War.

“But this is no Cold War. We call it a war on terrorism ― but Muslims in contrast see a history-shaking movement of Islamic restoration. This is not simply a religious revival, however, but also a renewal of the Muslim World itself. And it has taken form through many variant movements, both moderate and militant, with many millions of adherents ― of which radical fighters are only a small part. Moreover, these movements for restoration also represent, in their variant visions, the reality of multiple identities within Islam. If there is one overarching goal they share, it is the overthrow of what Islamists call the “apostate” regimes: the tyrannies of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan, and the Gulf states. They are the main target of the broader Islamist movement, as well as the actual fighter groups. The United States finds itself in the strategically awkward — and potentially dangerous — situation of being the longstanding prop and alliance partner of these authoritarian regimes. Without the U.S. these regimes could not survive. Thus the U.S. has strongly taken sides in a desperate struggle that is both broadly cast for all Muslims and country-specific. This is the larger strategic context, and it is acutely uncomfortable: U.S. policies and actions are increasingly seen by the overwhelming majority of Muslims as a threat to the survival of Islam itself. Three recent polls of Muslims show an overwhelming conviction that the U.S. seeks to “dominate” and “weaken” the Muslim World. Not only is every American initiative and commitment in the Muslim World enmeshed in the larger dynamic of intra-Islamic hostilities — but Americans have inserted themselves into this intra-Islamic struggle in ways that have made us an enemy to most Muslims. Therefore, in stark contrast to the Cold War, the United States today is not seeking to contain a threatening state/empire, but rather seeking to convert a broad movement within Islamic civilization to accept the value structure of Western Modernity — an agenda hidden within the official rubric of a “War on Terrorism.”

But if the strategic situation is wholly unlike the Cold War, our response nonetheless has tended to imitate the routines and bureaucratic responses and mindset that so characterized that era. In terms of strategic communication especially, the Cold War emphasized:

• Dissemination of information to “huddled masses yearning to be free.” Today we reflexively compare Muslim “masses” to those oppressed under Soviet rule. This is a strategic mistake. There is no yearning-to-be-liberated-by-the-U.S. groundswell among Muslim societies — except to be liberated perhaps from what they see as apostate tyrannies that the U.S. so determinedly promotes and defends.

• An enduringly stable propaganda environment. The Cold War was a status quo setting that emphasized routine message-packaging — and whose essential objective was the most efficient enactment of the routine. In contrast the situation in Islam today is highly dynamic, and likely to move decisively in one direction or another. The U.S. urgently needs to think in terms of promoting actual positive change.

• An acceptance of authoritarian regimes as long as they were anti-communist. This could be glossed over in our message of freedom and democracy because it was the main adversary only that truly mattered. Today, however, the perception of intimate U.S. support of tyrannies in the Muslim World is perhaps the critical vulnerability in American strategy. It strongly undercuts our message, while strongly promoting that of the enemy.”

Moreover …

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NOW He Tells Us…

A headline from NBC: “Investigation Of Lewinsky Bad Idea, Starr Says”. — OK, it turns out that what he actually said was that someone else should have done the investigation so as not to give the impression that it was connected to his previous investigation of Whitewater, but the headline was too delicious to pass up.

Since Starr says that the investigation was important since “it reinforced the proposition that all of us are subject to the law, no matter how high our station”, I append a letter I sent to Clinton on this topic at the time, below the fold.

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A Fighting Faith

Reader JWO writes: “Has anyone read the article “A Fighting Faith,” by Peter Beinart, in today’s New Republic? I would love to see this discussed on this blog.” We at ObWi live to serve, so here’s a post on it. Since it’s behind a subscription wall, I’ll excerpt below the fold.

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Another Torture Post

It would be nice if I never had to write another post about torture — not, admittedly, as nice as never having had to write one at all, but since my standards are dropping, right now I’d take it. No such luck. The Washington Post reports: “A confidential report to Army generals in Iraq in … Read more

Nothing They Do Surprises Me Any More.

From the Washington Post: “Republican budget writers say they may have found a way to cut the federal deficit even if they borrow hundreds of billions more to overhaul the Social Security system: Don’t count all that new borrowing. As they lay the groundwork for what will probably be a controversial fight over Social Security, … Read more

Another Silly Article On Liberal Professors

Academics are, on the whole, more liberal than the population at large. I would be interested to know why this is so, and what effects, if any, it has. I don’t usually find conservative reporting on this subject illuminating, since it generally doesn’t go beyond reporting anecdotes which, while bad, are not obviously more than occasional episodes of the sort that one would expect, human nature being what it is. (Nor is it obvious to me that a disproportionate number of cases of professorial bad behavior involve politics: I knew a professor once who spent the better part of a class making fun of a student for not drinking beer at parties. Really.) It is amusing to see conservatives responding with the sort of horrified cries of victimhood that they disapprove of in other contexts, e.g. those involving racism and sexism; but it’s not particularly enlightening.

An article by John Fund looked as though it might be an exception: it actually cites studies and not just anecdotes, for instance. But on closer examination it’s not. To start with, the studies themselves don’t seem to prove much. Of the three Fund cites, two just claim that a disproportionate number of professors are Democrats, which says little about why this is so or what effects it has. But a third claims to do more. Here’s how Fund describes it:

“A forthcoming study by Stanley Rothman of Smith College looked at a random sample of more than 1,600 undergraduate faculty members from 183 institutions of higher learning. He found that across all faculty departments, including business and engineering, academics were over five times as likely to be liberals as conservatives.

Mr. Rothman used statistical analysis to determine what factors explained how academics ended up working at elite universities. Marital status, sexual orientation and race didn’t play a statistically significant role. Academic excellence, as measured by papers published and awards conferred, did. But the next best predictor was whether the professor was a liberal. To critics that argue his methodology is flawed, Mr. Rothman points out that he used the same research tools long used in courts by liberal faculty members to prove race and sex bias at universities. Liberals criticizing his methods may find themselves hoist by their own petard.”

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Transparent Government: A Suggestion

Josh Marshall and others have reported on something that someone tried to slip into an appropriations bill while no one was looking: “At the last minute, Republican leaders tried to slip in a provision that would give certain committee chairman and their staffers unlimited access to any American’s tax return, with none of the standard … Read more

Wow. Just Wow.

Via TAPPED and a host of other sites: the Washington Post published a piece yesterday on the Bush administration’s current thinking about tax reform. The good news is that it does not seem that they’ll go for a flat tax or a sales tax. The bad news is what they’re proposing instead: Pamela F. Olson, … Read more

To Kill A Whooping Crane

“Atticus said to Jem, “I’d rather you shot at tin cans in the back yard, but I know you’ll go after birds.  Shoot all the bluejays you want, if you can hit ‘em, but remember it’s a sin to kill a mockingbird.” That was the only time I ever hear Atticus say it was a … Read more

Alberto Gonzales: “Strong, Principled Leadership.”

Here is part of President Bush’s statement on nominating Alberto Gonzales to be attorney General: “His sharp intellect and sound judgment have helped shape our policies in the war on terror — policies designed to protect the security of all Americans, while protecting the rights of all Americans. As the top legal official on the … Read more

Sing Glad Hosannas!

Ashcroft has resigned! Calico cats everywhere will be relieved, statues can shed their robes, and Justice Department workers will no longer be asked to sing Let the Eagle Soar. (From the Guardian story: “When asked why she opposed the workplace singalong, one of the department’s lawyers said: “Have you heard the song? It really sucks.””) … Read more

Running To The Right

I’ve been off doing non-political things since I last wrote (psychological coping mechanisms at work.) Now that I’m back, I’d like to add my voice to the chorus of those who say that Democrats should not try to move further to the right. I think this for several reasons.

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We Lost.

We lost fair and square. I congratulate the Bush supporters here. Your side did well. I also congratulate the Kerry supporters. We lost despite our rank and file supporters making the best effort on behalf of a Democratic candidate that I have ever seen. I know people — a surprising number of them — who … Read more

Prediction Thread

Who do you think will win? And by how much? I predict Kerry, with an electoral vote count of either 301 (with Florida) or 274 (without it.) (I think Kerry should win Florida, but I am not sure how to take account of the influence of Jeb.) Of the swing states other than Florida, I … Read more

Consider The Deficit: How It Grows…

It toils not, neither does it spin; and yet I say unto you, even Solomon in all his glory did not have nearly this much money. The deficit for FY2004 was about $412,553,000,000 (pdf). The debt is now (Sunday) $7,429,946,398,746.85, or a bit over $22,200 for every man, woman and child in the United States. (This is low, since we hit the debt ceiling recently, and rather than raise it right before the elections, we have been using money from the federal pension funds to pay our bills.) Since George W. Bush took office, the debt has grown by a third (the Times article just cited says 40%, but the government figures seem to indicate a lower number.)

That’s a lot of money. A lot of money. Moreover, our fiscal situation is about to get worse: the baby boom generation will be retiring soon, Social Security will stop providing us with a surplus to loot every year, and Medicare costs are going through the roof; in combination, these facts are shortly going to put a lot of pressure on our federal budget. But rather than face this problem and try to prepare for it by paying down existing debt, President Bush enacted tax cuts that have saddled us with nearly two trillion dollars in additional debt. It’s the tax cuts, more than any other factor, that drive the deficit: when you consider the change from surplus to deficit over the last four years, three times more of it is due to drops in revenue than to increases in spending, including spending on defense, homeland security, and Iraq. And while some of these revenue losses reflect the deficit, more are due to the tax cuts. If the tax cuts are made permanent, they will contribute significantly more to the national debt over the next 75 years than Social Security and Medicare combined. (cite; see table 1.)

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Still More Missing Weapons

Knight-Ridder has a new story out about looting of weapons depots in Iraq. It’s worth reading in its entirety. A few excerpts: “The more than 320 tons of missing Iraqi high explosives at center stage in the U.S. presidential election are only a fraction of the weapons-related material that’s disappeared in Iraq since the U.S.-led … Read more

Al Qaqaa Update

ABC News, via Josh Marshall: “Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by ABC television affiliate KSTP of St. Paul, Minn., which had a crew embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when it passed through Al-Qaqaa on April 18, 2003 — nine days after Baghdad fell. Experts who have studied the images say … Read more

Wrong, Mr. Mayor.

Speaking about the tons of explosives missing from al Qaqaa, Rudy Giuliani said the following on the Today Show: “The president was cautious. The president was prudent. The president did what a commander in chief should do. And no matter how much you try to blame it on the president, the actual responsibility for it … Read more

My World Tilts On Its Axis

The heavens have rolled up like a scroll; mountains have melted like mist; the sun has risen in the west; the rivers run uphill; the seas have turned to blood; the lion has lain down with the lamb; and the stars are falling like summer showers. But in a good way. The Red Sox have … Read more

Arafat In Critical Condition

HaAretz: “Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat was fighting for his life as of Wednesday night, after his condition deteriorated sharply on Wednesday evening, officials in Arafat’s office told Israeli security officials. Arafat, 75, lost consciousness Wednesday evening, and a team of Jordanian doctors, headed by his personal neurologist, Ashraf Kurdi, was urgently summoned to join … Read more

Securing WMD Sites In Iraq

Today’s Boston Globe has an editorial by Peter Galbraith on the kinds of failures that let WMD sites be looted after our invasion of Iraq. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Galbraith, he was one of the first people to publicize Saddam Hussein’s Anfal campaign against the Kurds in 1988, and wrote the … Read more

Wrong, Mr. President.

George W. Bush has finally said something about the 377 tons of missing explosives from al Qaqaa: “Now the senator is making wild charges about missing explosives when his top foreign policy adviser admits, quote, ‘we do not know the facts.’ Think about that. The senator’s denigrating the action of our troops and commanders in … Read more

A Modest Proposal

The American Prospect has just posted an article by Kenneth Baer, about a question I hadn’t considered before: what should George W. Bush do, professionally, if he loses the election? Moved, no doubt, by a burning desire to be of assistance, Baer has come up with the perfect answer: “like all confused job seekers, Bush … Read more

But Wait, There’s More…

To me, one of the more puzzling bits of the media’s coverage of the administration’s preparations for war has always been their failure to follow up on an MSNBC report from last March that between June 2002 and the invasion of Iraq, the administration vetoed plans to strike al Zarqawi’s training camp in northern Iraq on three separate occasions. This report was especially troubling because of what MSNBC claimed were the administration’s reasons for not striking Zarqawi: “Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam.” I mean, how exactly would one explain that decision to the family of Nicholas Berg? This story just begged for follow-up, and I have been puzzled as to why no news organizations seemed inclined to investigate it.

Now, however, the Wall Street Journal, that leftist propaganda machine, has filed a story about it. Since it’s behind a subscription wall, I’m going to excerpt some of it below the fold.

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Why This Defies Belief.

To address a few of the questions that have been raised about the looting of hundreds of tons of high explosives: Is this just a normal screw-up?? I don’t think so. The fact that this site had been secured by the IAEA means that we knew exactly where it was and what it contained. In … Read more

This Defies Belief.

The Nelson Report, via Josh Marshall, reports that in April 2003, 350 tons of extremely high explosives were looted from a site in Iraq that had been secured by the IAEA prior to the invasion. This has only come out now because the administration kept it secret and pressured Iraq not to disclose the fact … Read more

“I don’t think it matters.”

There’s a very interesting article in today’s Washington Post about the administration’s prosecution of the War on Terror. It makes a number of interesting points, most notably about what happened to our early cooperation with Iran, and provides some more substance to the idea that Iraq did draw resources away from the fight against al … Read more

Richard Cohen Doesn’t Get It (Special Falafel Edition)

Until now, I have not been the tiniest bit tempted to comment on the sexual harassment suit against Bill O’Reilly; even now, all I really want to say about it is ‘ugh.’ (And: why did he have to talk about felafel, which I quite like but will now be unable to think about, let alone eat, for the foreseeable future? It took me long enough to forget what Monica Lewinsky did with perfectly good Altoids. Why can’t all these annoying people pick on foods I don’t like, like lima beans?) But Richard Cohen has written a rather obnoxious op ed about it in the Washington Post, which I do want to comment on.

Just for the record: obviously, I have no idea whether or not the allegations against O’Reilly are true. If anything I write seems to suggest otherwise, that’s inadvertent. I am concerned with Cohen’s views about sexual harassment, not with the facts of this case, whatever they might be.

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Oh. My. God.

First, I actually watched the Red Sox game. (That’s how I think of it. People from Boston don’t notice other teams.) This might not surprise anyone, but that’s because you don’t know me and the tragicomic history of my life as a Red Sox fan. In 1967, when I was young and impressionable, they won … Read more

More Really Good News, And A Resource

The BBC is reporting that a UK company has developed a technique for making vaccines that do not need to be refrigerated. This would be a really, really good thing: as it is, most vaccines have to be kept cold, and if you try to imagine the difficulties of refrigerating vaccines when you are, let’s … Read more

WWKD Take 2

A few days ago Edward asked a very interesting question, namely: why do people think that Bush would be a better Commander-in-Chief than Kerry? What do they imagine that Kerry would do that’s worse than what Bush has already done? Unfortunately, the thread spiraled into an endless discussion of the history of our relations with Iraq. Since I thought Edward’s question was very much worth answering, I thought I’d ask it again. To provide a slightly different framework for it:

Both Kerry and Bush agree that whatever the merits of our decision to go into Iraq, we are there now, and have to see it through. Some people may think that Kerry is more focussed on getting our troops out, but frankly, I haven’t seen much evidence of that. Moreover, Bush also famously planned to withdraw troops fairly dramatically shortly after the invasion, but reality wouldn’t let him; there is, as far as I can see, no reason to think that if Kerry wants to withdraw troops, he would not alter his views in the face of realities on the ground if he had to. (If anything, the opposite is true, since, unlike Bush, Kerry belongs to “the reality-based community”.)

Neither Bush nor Kerry is in a position to go fighting any other wars just now. Our army is badly overextended — we have sent our training unit into Iraq, which is, as Phil Carter says, like eating our seed corn. Our soldiers are under stop-loss orders to prevent them from leaving on schedule. The guard and reserves have missed their enrollment targets. We do not have the capability to start a third war absent some extremely compelling reason, like our being attacked. Both Bush and Kerry would go to war in that case; Bush is slightly more likely to embark on a new adventure absent some such reason, but that is not at all a good thing in our present circumstances.

For this reason I think that the broad contours of our military engagements would be the same under the two candidates: war in Iraq and Afghanistan until stable governments are in place there, at which point we withdraw. The differences between them, as far as defense and foreign policy are concerned, would probably be as follows: first, the competence with which they would run these wars; second, their diplomatic efforts, and third, their prosecution of the war on terror. I truly cannot see why anyone would think that Bush is likely to do a better job in any of these areas. Before going into specifics, however, I want to quote a very good point made by Kevin Drum:

“Obsessing over Kerry’s entire 30-year public history is probably unproductive. After all, before 9/11 George Bush and his advisors had little concern for terrorism and expressed frequent contempt for things like nation building and democracy promotion. Does that affect how we feel about Bush today?

It shouldn’t, because we accept that 9/11 fundamentally changed his view of the world. We judge Bush by how he’s reacted after 9/11, not by his advisors’ long records before taking office — and I’d argue that we should do the same with Kerry rather than raking over nuclear freeze minutiae and Gulf War votes from over a decade ago. Obviously Kerry’s past illuminates his character to some degree, but a lot changed on 9/11 and I suspect that ancient history is a poor guide to his view of how to react to the post-9/11 world.”

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Really Good News

At last, we seem to be on the trail of an effective vaccine for malaria. During a clinical trial in Mozambique, the vaccine lowered rates of malaria infection in children by 30%, and lowered rates of severe malaria episodes by 58%. Moreover, the vaccine seems to be safe. It still has to go through further testing, and will probably not be licensed until around 2010. However, the implications of this are, potentially, huge.

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