Bunny Ears Update

by hilzoy When last I wrote about Bill Sali (R-ID 01), he was making bunny ears at his opponent’s staff while they were being interviewed. The time before that, he was claiming that “Forty percent of the mass of every tree in the forest is crude oil.” In devastating news for humorists everywhere, it looks … Read more

A Chorus Of Concord

by hilzoy It’s not every day that Paul Krugman and Martin Feldstein (head of Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors and an economic advisor to the McCain campaign) find themselves in complete agreement, but they are in agreement now. Feldstein: “With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate down to 1 percent, there is no scope for an … Read more

Khalidi

by hilzoy I want to second Eric’s condemnation of John McCain’s attack’s on Rashid Khalidi. Eric quoted Juan Cole, which led some commenters to question Cole’s objectivity. I will therefore cite two other people. First, Barnett Rubin: “I actually find it demeaning, insulting, and depressing to have to defend Rashid. I could say, I know … Read more

Socialism Is Everywhere

by hilzoy In a stunning reversal, John McCain today endorsed the redistribution of wealth: “We have a plan of action to get America’s economy going again, Maria, and it has to do with a wide range of prescriptions. But one of them is to keep people in their homes. Look, it was the housing crisis … Read more

A Lurch To The Left

by hilzoy Sigh … “Warming up a crowd in Sioux City this morning for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, U.S. Rep. Steve King said Republicans are not going far enough to paint Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as the purveyor of a socialist agenda. King, known for provocative, partisan remarks, suggested Obama actually could … Read more

That Tape From 2001

by hilzoy I spent part of last night trying to find a way to actually listen to the audio of Obama’s interview with Chicago Public Radio. Unfortunately, I couldn’t get it to work. So, unfortunately, I’m going to have to base my comments on Fox News’ transcript, which is the most complete version I could … Read more

Skinhead Plot

by hilzoy AP: “Two white supremacists allegedly plotted to go on a national killing spree, shooting and decapitating black people and ultimately targeting Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, federal authorities said Monday. In all, the two men whom officials describe as neo-Nazi skinheads planned to kill 88 people — 14 by beheading, according to documents … Read more

Stevens Convicted

by hilzoy From the NYT: “Senator Ted Stevens, Alaska’s dominant political figure for more than four decades, was found guilty on Monday by a jury of violating federal ethics laws for failing to report tens of thousands of dollars in gifts and services he had received from friends. The jury of District of Columbia residents … Read more

Oh, Great: A Second Epicenter

by hilzoy Paul Krugman: “The really shocking thing, however, is the way the crisis is spreading to emerging markets — countries like Russia, Korea and Brazil. These countries were at the core of the last global financial crisis, in the late 1990s (which seemed like a big deal at the time, but was a day … Read more

The View From The Ground

by hilzoy The subprime crisis in Cleveland (h/t Undiplomatic): “All over Cleveland, lenders from across the country were pouring money into communities that not long before had complained about being redlined. Much of that money, from National City and other banks, found its way to Slavic Village, the childhood home of Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich … Read more

Question

by hilzoy There are only ten days left until the election. How many days before the McCain campaign and/or the Republican Party compares Barack Obama to Pol Pot? Or Charlie Manson? I mean, we’ve already had Hitler and Soviet Russia. Why stop there?

A Similar Mistake

by hilzoy They actually went there: “Pennsylvania Republicans are disavowing an e-mail sent to Jewish voters that likens a vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to events that led up to the Holocaust. “Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008,” the e-mail reads. “Many of our ancestors … Read more

Oh Noes! Socialism!

by hilzoy If you read Barack Obama’s tax plan (pdf), it seems pretty unobjectionable. He wants to cut taxes on most people, and let the tax rates on those who make over $250,000 a year go back to the levels they were at during the Clinton years, when, as we all know, the economy went … Read more

For The Record

by hilzoy The NYT: “Mr. Podesta has been mapping out the transition so systematically that he has already written a draft Inaugural Address for Mr. Obama, which he published this summer in a book called “The Power of Progress.” The speech calls for rebuilding a “grand alliance” with the rest of the world, bringing troops … Read more

Compare And Contrast

by hilzoy Barack Obama on his response to the economic meltdown: “We were getting phone calls from people in Washington and I think there were some on our staff that were thinking that maybe we should interject and respond in some way. My strong feeling was that this situation was of such seriousness that it … Read more

National Review Meltdown Watch

by hilzoy The National Review front page link to this article asks: “Is there a connection between the criticisms of vice-presidential hopeful Sarah Palin and repressed post-abortion grief?” Let me think long and hard about this one: No. This has been another edition of ‘Simple Answers To Stupid Questions’ (TM Atrios). The slightly more complicated … Read more

“The Tokyo Rose Of Al Qaeda”

by hilzoy You’ll never guess who “the Tokyo Rose of al Qaeda” is: “Republican U.S. Senate challenger Christopher Reed accused fellow Navy veteran and Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin of aiding the enemy because of his call to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq on a scheduled timetable. In a taped debate that aired Thursday night on … Read more

Ashley Todd

by hilzoy I didn’t write about Ashley Todd last night, when I first read her story. It didn’t make sense to me, but then again, lots of things don’t, and some of those things are true. All that was clear to me then was that one way or another, it would turn out to be … Read more

Hope

by hilzoy Back in 1994, Susan Smith strapped her two sons into her Mazda and let it roll into a lake, drowning them. She had been having an affair, but the man she had been having it with didn’t want her children. Newt Gingrich had this to say about her crime: “I think the mother … Read more

Shop On, Sarah Palin, Shop On!

by hilzoy Sarah Palin does her bit to boost sagging retail sales: “The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August. According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early … Read more

NewsMax: Not Aware Of All Internet Traditions

by hilzoy Ken Timmerman has a rather breathless article in NewsMax called “Obama’s Secret Campaign Cash: Has $63 Million Flowed from Foreign Sources?” Here’s the argument for the claim that it could have: Examining Obama’s donations over $200, which must be itemized in FEC filings, the author discovers a class of donations that strikes him … Read more

More Trouble Ahead

by hilzoy From the Washington Post: “Consumers are increasingly unable to pay off their credit cards, forcing banks to hoard cash to protect against future losses and lend to fewer people, according to reports yesterday from several of the nation’s largest banks. These financial disclosures showed a spike in credit card loans going bad, putting … Read more

ACORN

by hilzoy

I’ve been following the ACORN story, and trying, bit by bit, to understand it. The broad outlines are pretty clear:

“ACORN registers lots of lower income and/or minority voters. They operate all across the country and do a lot of things beside voter registration. What’s key to understand is their method. By and large they do not rely on volunteers to register voters. They hire people — often people with low incomes or even the unemployed. This has the dual effect of not only registering people but also providing some work and income for people who are out of work. But because a lot of these people are doing it for the money, inevitably, a few of them cut corners or even cheat. So someone will end up filling out cards for nonexistent names and some of those slip through ACORN’s own efforts to catch errors. (It’s important to note that in many of the recent ACORN cases that have gotten the most attention it’s ACORN itself that has turned the people in who did the fake registrations.) These reports start buzzing through the right-wing media every two years and every time the anecdotal reports of ‘thousands’ of fraudulent registrations turns out, on closer inspection, to be either totally bogus themselves or wildly exaggerated. So thousands of phony registrations ends up being, like, twelve.”

There a couple of key points here. First, as a lot of people have pointed out, voter registration fraud is not the same as fraudulently casting a ballot. There are a lot of safeguards in place to prevent people from casting fraudulent ballots, and submitting a fraudulent registration does not begin to mean that you will be able to cast a fraudulent ballot. First, you’d need to submit the fake registrations. Then you’d need to hope that they made it through the election officials’ screening. And then, as Rick Hasen writes in Slate:

“I would have to (…) pay a lot of other individuals to go to the polling place and claim to be Mary Poppins or Old Dead Bob, without any return guarantee—thanks to the secret ballot—that any of them will cast a vote for my preferred candidate. Those who do show up at the polls run the risk of being detected (“You’re not my neighbor Bob who passed away last year!”) and charged with a felony. And for what—$10?”

And besides all that, you’d have to hope that none of the large number of people you hired shoot their mouths off about it later. If you think about it, it’s a pretty labor-intensive and risky way to try to steal an election. Much easier and safer to rig an election machine, stuff a ballot box, or find some subtle way of intimidating the other side’s voters. This may be why there’s very little evidence of actual voter fraud.

Second, in any large organization that has a lot of workers registering people to vote, someone is going to get lazy and decide to turn in made-up registrations rather than real ones. That’s not a sign of organizational perfidy; it’s human nature. The important question, in the ACORN stories, is not: did some one of their many, many employees submit fake registrations? It’s: did ACORN knowingly try to get fake registrations accepted? and, if not: did it do everything it could have done to minimize the number of fake registrations, and to catch those that were submitted?

Third, a lot of news stories I’ve read have said that ACORN submitted fraudulent registration cards without noting that ACORN is often required by law to return all registration cards, even the ones filled out for “Mouse, Mickey”. (This is to prevent them from discarding, say, all the people from a party they don’t like, leaving the people whose cards they threw out believing that they had registered when in fact they were not.) ACORN does try to identify fraudulent registrations, and to mark them as fraudulent or suspicious when it turns them in. (They also fire people who submit fake registrations to them, and on at least some occasions turn them in to the election board.) Some of the coverage I’ve seen fails to mention whether the fake registrations ACORN submitted were flagged in this way or not.

Omitting this information is irresponsible: there’s a huge difference between ACORN submitting fraudulent registration cards in the hopes of sneaking them into the system, and ACORN turning in fraudulent registration cards in an envelope marked “Fraudulent Registration Cards; Please Investigate!”, because the law requires it to. The first is knowing fraud; the second is compliance with the law. The media should make it clear which of the two is going on.

Likewise, it would be good if the media would distinguish between cases that might possibly indicate an attempt by ACORN to register fraudulent voters and cases that couldn’t. The guy who registered 73 times, for instance, will not show up on voter registration rolls as 73 separate iterations of himself, all with the same address, driver’s license, etc. There is really no plausible story about how this could represent an attempt by ACORN (or anyone) to steal an election. Given the charges flying around, the media ought to make this clear.

That said, on to a few specific cases. I picked them more or less randomly, based on what I happened to read about when I was thinking of doing this. I tried to dig a bit deeper, to figure out whether or not the evidence pointed to any sort of systematic fraud. In particular, I wanted to know whether or not ACORN had flagged suspicious registrations, and whether or not it seemed to be cooperating with the authorities and generally trying to minimize fraud. I did this because I wanted to find some sort of evidence one way or another.

In the cases I’ve gone through, the takeaway seems to be: ACORN had flagged suspicious registrations; it was cooperating with authorities, there is no evidence that it was trying to submit fraudulent registrations, and plenty of evidence that it was trying not to. (E.g., firing people who submitted fake registrations to ACORN.) I do think ACORN ought to ask serious questions about its practice of paying people to register people to vote, and/or about its controls on its employees, though I understand why one might want to give low-income people the work. Details below the fold.

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Bunny Ears And Real Americans

by hilzoy Bill Sali, one of my favorite nutty Congresspeople, makes the news again: “Congressman Bill Sali and his campaign staff disrupted a NewsChannel 7 reporter and a representative for his opponent during an interview Tuesday in Downtown Boise. KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick’s campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon. During the … Read more

There They Go Again …

by hilzoy Cliff May at The Corner quotes Kimberley Strassel: “To kick off our show tonight, Mr. Obama will give 95% of American working families a tax cut, even though 40% of Americans today don’t pay income taxes! How can our star enact such mathemagic? How can he “cut” zero? Abracadabra! It’s called a “refundable … Read more

E. O. Wilson On Biology And Morality

by hilzoy

Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that The Atlantic has put E. O. Wilson’s article ‘The Biological Basis Of Morality‘ online. I had repressed all memory of this article, but it really annoyed me at the time, so much so that I wrote a letter to the editors about it. For some, um, unfathomable reason they declined to publish it, but now (heh heh) I can, and so I have put it below the fold. (Why should perfectly good snark go to waste?)

I am reliably informed that E. O. Wilson is a brilliant biologist. I would read anything he wrote about ants with interest. But it does not follow from that that he knows anything about philosophy. Of course, that’s no reason why he can’t write intelligently on it. But it is a reason why someone at the Atlantic should have gone over what he wrote to make sure it was accurate, as I’m sure they would have done had I submitted an article on insects. Apparently, no one did.

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McCain On Obama’s Fundraising

by hilzoy Here’s John McCain’s response to Barack Obama’s fundraising totals for September (h/t): ” I’m saying that history shows us where unlimited amounts of money are in political campaigns, it leads to scandal. I’m not comparing it with — I’m saying this is the first since the Watergate scandal that any candidate for president … Read more

Quick News

by hilzoy First: “The Obama campaign announced this morning that it had raised a record $150 million last month, and had added 632,000 new donors to its total. The amount shattered the campaign’s previous record from August. The McCain campaign also had a record-breaking month in August, but is now operating with the $84 million … Read more

That’s Very Reassuring …

by hilzoy From the NYT: “President Bush and European leaders, who have been tussling over whether to revamp the regulatory framework for global finance, agreed Saturday night to take steps toward a series of international meetings to address the economic crisis, the White House said. After a private dinner at Camp David, Mr. Bush, President … Read more

Running Out The Clock

by hilzoy From the Washington Post: “The Bush administration is seeking to recall a military jury that gave a light sentence to Osama bin Laden’s driver in one of the first trials at Guantanamo Bay, arguing that the judge improperly credited the defendant for time he had already spent in the detention facility. Salim Ahmed … Read more

Anti-American

by hilzoy After saying, about Barack Obama, that “I’m very concerned that he may have anti-American views,” Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) calls on the media to investigate which members of Congress are anti-American: That’s revolting. Though perhaps not surprising, coming from someone who says: “Ronald Reagan has been a tremendous hero of mine, as has … Read more

Deficit Spending

by hilzoy Paul Krugman in the NYT: “While the manic-depressive stock market is dominating the headlines, the more important story is the grim news coming in about the real economy. It’s now clear that rescuing the banks is just the beginning: the nonfinancial economy is also in desperate need of help. And to provide that … Read more

Sign Of The Times

by hilzoy From the WSJ: “Credit has gotten so tight in recent weeks that companies contemplating a bankruptcy filing can’t find the cash needed to get through the process. This multibillion-dollar corner of the lending market — debtor-in-possession and exit financing — has been rocked by General Electric Co.’s recent, undisclosed decision to largely halt … Read more

Elsewhere

by hilzoy The NYT has a set of op-eds on how the market meltdown looked from Europe. It’s worth a read. Ireland: “The old saw “safe as houses” no longer cuts. And money in the bank is no longer “money in the bank.” We did not think the system could fail, but late last month … Read more

Spreading The Wealth

by hilzoy

Over the weekend, I noticed that the conservative blogs were up in arms about Obama’s statement that “when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” Having seen the actual video, I thought this was pretty silly. But now that John McCain has started misrepresenting what Obama actually said, I thought it might be a good idea to get clear about this.

Regrettably, ABC News does not let me embed their video, or even copy the relevant parts of their transcript. The video of Obama’s entire conversation, along with the transcript, is here. I urge anyone who is bothered by what Obama said to go watch or read it. Here’s the gist:

Joe the plumber asks: wouldn’t I, a guy who is thinking of buying a business with a little over $250,000 in revenue, pay more under Obama’s plan? After Obama explains what his plan does, Joe says: look, I have worked hard, and I’m just getting taxed more and more. Obama replies: well, there are two ways of looking at it. One is that you’ve worked hard, you’re successful, and now you’re being penalized for your success. But here’s another: you were probably working just as hard earlier, when you were starting out. And under my plan, you would have gotten more money then, and so you would have been able to save more, and you would have gotten to where you are today more quickly.

Obama then points out that taxes have been cut a lot for people who are doing well, but that ordinary folks are not doing nearly so well — in fact, their average income has gone down over the last eight years. And (after a bit about the flat tax) he says:

“For folks like me who have worked hard, but frankly also been lucky, I don’t mind paying just a little bit more than the waitress that I just met over there who’s — things are slow and she can barely make the rent.

My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody. If you’ve got a plumbing business, you’re going to be better off if you’ve got a whole bunch of customers who can afford to hire you, and right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody, and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

This is what John McCain was referring to last night when he said:

“You know, when Sen. Obama ended up his conversation with Joe the plumber — we need to spread the wealth around. In other words, we’re going to take Joe’s money, give it to Sen. Obama, and let him spread the wealth around.

I want Joe the plumber to spread that wealth around. You told him you wanted to spread the wealth around.”

But that’s just not what Obama said. He did not say that he wanted to spread Joe’s wealth around. He certainly did not say that he thought he was entitled to simply expropriate Joe’s wealth and distribute it to poor people, like Robin Hood. He said he wanted to spread the wealth: i.e., to have a tax code that is less skewed towards the wealthy. That’s Obama’s radical idea: progressive taxation.

Hand me my smelling salts!

If any change in people’s proportionate tax burdens counts as expropriating the money of those who end up paying a greater share and giving it to those who pay a lower one, then any President who has ever enacted changes in the tax code has expropriated people’s wealth. George Bush, for instance: in 2004, his tax cuts gave a 2.3% increase in after-tax income to the middle 20%, but a 6.3% increase to millionaires. This shift of tax burdens from the rich to the poor is obviously just an attempt to take poor people’s money and “spread” it to rich people.* And Ronald Reagan: he raised payroll taxes while cutting the top marginal rates: more expropriation!

Moreover, Reagan signed the 1986 tax reform bill into law: that bill eliminated a lot of corporate tax loopholes that had allowed some major corporations to pay “little or nothing in income taxes”. In other words, these corporations’ share of taxes went from zero (or near zero) to the same rate as other corporations, for no better reason than some misguided notion of “fairness.” Socialist expropriation!

And don’t even get me started on the monstrous socialist transfer of wealth that increases in the child tax credit or education credits involve. Socialist, the lot of them.

Changing the tax code in such a way that the proportional burdens of different groups of people also change is not socialism. It’s just a change in tax policy.

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