"This was the voice of moderation until 13 Sept, 2025"
Charles Bird by Charles
In thinking about an Iran with enriched uranium and atomic bombs in the near future, all sorts of questions have bubbled to the surface. The answers are my best educated guesses. If you have different answers, tell my why. I’m just trying to mentally work this through. In no particular order:
In response to Macallan’s illuminating post on the passing of Hugh Thompson (the whistleblower who helped expose Lt. James Calley and the My Lai massacre), I wrote in comments that the war crimes we committed at My Lai were atrocious, but they paled before the atrocities of the North Vietnamese, citing as an example the slaughter of 5,500 civilians by the North Vietnamese at Hue during the Tet offensive. The American people have heard plenty of our war crimes but little of the war crimes committed against the Americans and the inhabitants of South Vietnam by the North Vietnamese communists and their southern fellow travelers. A commenter disputed my claim on the number of civilian casualties so, using the free Internet sources I could muster, I investigated.
by Charles Last time, it was Bush’s nomination of Harriet Miers. Just a few short months ago, the conservative wing bristled, complained and then mounted an anti-Miers onslaught that eventually crippled the nomination. The outcome was favorable: A solid conservative nominee instead of a mystery date. This time, the push is against the Republican leadership … Read more
by Charles Finally, Abramoff has worked a deal with federal prosecutors. In exchange for reduced sentences, he will be a "cooperating witness" against former business associates and political colleagues. In a riveting true-life tale by Matthew Continetti, Abramoff’s business partner comes across as a one-step-removed mobster, Representative Bob Ney looks like an Abramoff toady, Tom … Read more
by Charles
The Authorization to Use Military Force was tantamount to a declaration of war against al Qaeda. In my view, signals intelligence is part and parcel of a president’s war-making arsenal and falls under category of "necessary and appropriate force". In the interests of national security, if the NSA intercepts a communique between Zahawiri and a bloke in New Jersey, I’m not going to have kittens if it’s done without a court order. However, I would have a litter of twelve if none of the parties involved is Zawahiri or some other known al Qaeda suspect (the NSA’s inserting of persistent cookies into the computers of those who visit the NSA website might give me a contraction).
by Charles
After absorbing over a week of news regarding the warrantless surveillance by the NSA, I thought I’d write this down to keep it all straight. Calls for impeachment are serious business, not to be taken lightly or quickly or without good reason, and several of those calls have been made. From what I’ve seen so far, the person who has written the most clearly on the NSA surveillance matter has been Orrin Kerr, along with a few others such as Cass Sunstein (more from Sunstein here). Going through the list of fundamental questions:
by Charles
Agence France Presse reports on a little espionage, most likely by the Chinese military:
A systematic effort by hackers to penetrate US government and industry computer networks stems most likely from the Chinese military, the head of a leading security institute said. The attacks have been traced to the Chinese province of Guangdong, and the techniques used make it appear unlikely to come from any other source than the military, said Alan Paller, the director of the SANS Institute, an education and research organization focusing on cybersecurity.
"These attacks come from someone with intense discipline. No other organization could do this if they were not a military organization," Paller said in a conference call to announced a new cybersecurity education program.
by Charles …structurally flawed (apologies to Don McLean). It’s a monumental task, building levees. You can have hundreds of miles of them, but if a 100-foot section is poorly designed and poorly built, disaster awaits. In the case of New Orleans, poor design and poor construction and poor monitoring were all over the place, which … Read more
by Charles
One word. Productivity. According to Reuters:
Non-farm business productivity rose a hefty 4.7% in the third quarter, fastest pace in two years and stronger than first reported, according to a government report Tuesday that could ease inflation worries.
This is on top of 3.2% and 2.1% increases in the first and second quarters, respectively. More surprising is that this is happening in an economy that added 1,840,000 jobs in 2005. Why is productivity growth important? From the same article:
Productivity is a key factor that determines whether living standards are improving. Productivity gains allow companies to pay workers more from their increased production without having to increase the price of products they sell, which would fuel inflation.
It keeps inflation down and raises wages, GDP and living standards. Brad DeLong has been observing this economic indicator for years (his March 2002 analysis is an example), and he has an interesting table that tracks productivity growth in four-year intervals, every first quarter of every presidential years since 1960 (via Arnold Kling).
| Year | % Change |
|---|---|
| 1960 | 12.0% |
| 1964 | 12.8% |
| 1968 | 12.2% |
| 1972 | 7.9% |
| 1976 | 9.1% |
| 1980 | 3.6% |
| 1984 | 6.2% |
| 1988 | 6.9% |
| 1992 | 8.1% |
| 1996 | 4.9% |
| 2000 | 9.5% |
| 2004 | 17.0% |
by Charles In response to Blanton’s earlier post, whether McCain is a fool and charlatan is beside the point. Also irrelevant is his status as a self-aggrandizing publicity-seeking pol. I accept that the most dangerous place a person can be is between the Arizona Senator and a TV camera. I disagree with McCain’s tax policies … Read more
by Charles
One of my computers is driving me nuts! Help!
I’m not sure how it happened, but my best guess is that either my wife or son clicked on an attachment they shouldn’t have. I have a Dell 2400 Dimension PC and it runs the home version of Windows XP. The problem is this. I can’t open Internet Explorer, My Computer or Control Panel. All other programs that I’ve tried work fine, including other Microsoft products. I’ve run spyware and anti-virus programs to no avail. I think what I need to do is initiate the system restore wizard and set the date for a week or two prior to the beginning of this sad episode, but I can’t do this because I can’t open Control Panel. I think I can accomplish a system restore by clicking on the "run" button, but I can’t figure out how to find the file name to make this process happen. So here I am, at my wit’s end, begging for help. Any suggestions?
by Charles
I know this has been ground well trod before, but former Nixon defense secretary Melvin Laird put together an informative piece, juxtaposing the history of our past involvement in Vietnam with our present involvement in Iraq. Several factors caused me to take a second look at Laird. One, he was a primary architect of Vietnamization, and then this entry stands out:
In spite of Vietnam and the unfolding Watergate affair, which threatened to discredit the entire Nixon administration, Laird retired with his reputation intact.
Such is the taint of Nixon that any of those who worked under him are viewed with hard skepticism. I knew little of Laird because I was in grade school at the time he was defense secretary, and in his own words, he has been below the radar for the last thirty years. But when someone with integrity and reasonably good judgment decides to speak up after three decades of relative silence, it’s worthy of notice:
I have kept silent for those 30 years because I never believed that the old guard should meddle in the business of new administrations, especially during a time of war. But the renewed vilification of our role in Vietnam in light of the war in Iraq has prompted me to speak out.
by Charles
Why? Because their mission in Fallujah has been mostly accomplished. Kevin Sites, made famous for his video of an American soldier killing an Iraqi in Fallujah, interviewed U.S. Marine Colonel David Berger, and here is what Berger said about the security situation.
SITES: "Frustrating from the point that if something doesn’t get done soon there is the potential for more violence? Have you noticed anything that is manifesting that frustration?"
BERGER: "No, not at all. It isn’t at that kind of tipping point where if things don’t improve in another month it’s going to go south, no not at all. The two biggest reasons are the [Iraqi] army and the Iraqi police. We’ve spent a long time working with them — especially the army. They’re firmly entrenched here, people know, and they have a good confidence level.
"And the police are also a big factor here. … There are a thousand, maybe 1,100 police and they are on the streets every day, 24/7. The people very much trust them and look to them for security, and I think in another six months [the Iraqi police] will be in control of the whole city themselves. And the army and the rest of the military forces will continue to push out."
SITES: "You’re saying in six months the police will be able to control the whole city?"
BERGER: "If they keep on going like they’re going, yes."
SITES: "How is this police force different, which, along with the Iraqi national guard back in April 2004, turned the city over to insurgents?"
BERGER: "It’s more confident, it’s more highly trained, and that makes all the difference in the world. There’s still a lot of perception that some of the police have too much loyalty to certain parts of the city, and won’t be objective as law enforcement parties. But I think the police chief and the leadership he has selected is key to making sure that doesn’t happen. He has even established an internal affairs-type section that roots out — just like any police force does — those people that are working both sides.
"The big difference is training, absolutely. And there are a lot of little things, like in any military law enforcement: uniforms, discipline, holding people accountable. Those things didn’t exist eight or 10 months ago; now they do."
SITES: "In the year since the battle for Fallujah, have you been successful in keeping the insurgents from returning, and also keeping the weapons flow out?
BERGER: "Yes. I don’t just think so. Statistically, when you look at it, there’s no question."
SITES: "Is there an ambient level of violence that’s always there?"
BERGER: "Yes, I’m sure there is. It’s higher than I’d like. But because the control points in the city are manned so efficiently, there’s always an influx that’s going to get through, but the cordon and containment is good. There’s going to be some that get through but it’s absolutely manageable. And it’s so small that there is not going to be a buildup in the city."
Emphasis mine. The only problem that I can see is that this type of information is reported in a blog and not by the Bush administration and not by the mainstream media. Fallujah isn’t solved, partly because we have not released funds to help restore its economy, but what a difference a year makes. A valid reason for troop reductions is that there are enough Iraqi forces sufficiently trained to do the job in the stead of coalition forces. There will be troop reductions in 2006, and why not. By August of next year, there will be 270,000 trained Iraqis to do it. For those looking mainstream media fatcats looking for tipping points, perhaps they can cast their eyes at the critical mass of trained native troops available to do the job.
by Charles
First off, Congressman John Murtha is a veteran who served his country honorably. I assume he loves the United States of America every bit as much as I do. So in this criticism–and it’s a rigorous criticism–I am not questioning his patriotism. What I am questioning is his judgment. More specifically, his political judgment. Not just what he said, but when he said it. Murtha is wrong. Dead wrong. Horrendously wrong. Calamitously wrong.
Murtha raised the white flag over eighteen months ago when he said this war was unwinnable. Instead of employing the sustained will necessary for victory, Murtha embodies the sustained wilt that leads to failure. The stakes could not be higher. A defeat in Iraq would be monumentally worse than our bust in Vietnam. We as a country cannot allow defeat to happen and I cannot allow Murtha’s words go without challenge. Why is he wrong? There are many reasons.
by Charles While it’s important to revisit errors past in order to not repeat them, we are where we are. The place we’re at right now is the middle of rebuilding Iraq, trying to defeat terrorists and Sunni paramilitary squads and trying to usher in a free, peaceful, non-theocratic representative republic. Improvements to our strategy … Read more
by Charles Because the president has been an Occasional Communicator, he has painted himself into a political corner, especially now that he has lost degrees of support from conservatives, myself included. Harriet Miers was the latest ratchet in my movement of separation from George W. Bush. He gets some credit for recently standing up and … Read more
by Charles I haven’t read much Stephen Green lately, but this piece caught my eye. A teaser: Previously, I wrote that in order to win the Terror War, we must "prove the enemy ideology to be ineffective," just as we did in the Cold War. In that conflict, we did so in three ways: by … Read more
by Charles
With riots in France (mostly by Muslims) in their eleventh day twelfth night, more than several have wondered who is to blame. Obviously, the rioters themselves are responsible for breaking the law. But what about the many rioters protesters who didn’t and don’t? The deaths of two teenagers aren’t the only reason for this now-daily event, especially now that it’s taken on a weird kind of momentum of its own. Other reasons cited have been Islamist dogma, Euro multiculturalism, poor assimilation, feckless law enforcement, bad architecture, and welfare state living conditions. It’s surely a combination of the above, but Shannon Love writes persuasively that the French welfare state is the root cause:
The short answer is that human beings are not cows. Cows are quite content if their material needs are met but people have hopes, dreams and aspirations. It is precisely these psychological benefits that the welfare state ultimately cannot provide. People are rioting not because they are deprived of material benefits but because they are wholly dependent on the whims of others for the benefits they do receive. They have no status and no control. It is these social, psychological and spiritual deprivations that they are ultimately striking out against.
Advocates of the welfare state are driven by an overwhelming need to provide economic security and stability. Unfortunately, they will not acknowledge the inherent inverse relationship between security and stability on one hand and economic growth, mobility and creativity on the other. Anything done to increase pay, benefits and job security for people who have jobs now makes it more difficult for people without jobs to get them. Over the course of decades, this situation creates enormous structural unemployment. High unemployment drives the expansion of the welfare state further, increasing taxes, which slows the economy which drives higher unemployment and the feedback loop is closed. By creating a stagnant economic system focused on the security and well being of those that have, it chokes off any hope for those that have not. The welfare state grants security today by sacrificing tomorrow. Sacrificing tomorrow kills hope and that is what ultimately leads to rioting.
(Updates below the fold)
by Charles
The attacks are not fair, and it’s not a game. This is a war, and it’s a war that liberals and Democrats will lose if enough conservatives and Republicans stand up to it. As Paul Cella noted yesterday, Michael Steele’s political opponents have taken malice to a whole new level. When liberals believe that images such as this…
…are fair game, or when Steele is portrayed as a traitor to his race, then the gloves should come off.
(Update below the fold)
by Charles As Dana Priest well demonstrated, controversial covert ops don’t stay covert for long. After reading this, the question that lingers is why those in CIA custody aren’t taken to Gitmo. Why shouldn’t thirty of the worst-of-the-worst al Qaeda members be put before a competent military tribunal, and if so judged, be left to … Read more
by Charles CNN reports that Bush has chosen Samuel Alito to replace Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court. Given the nickname of Scalito, this will comfort conservatives and not go over well with many Senate Democrats, and it remains to be seen how the Gang of 14 will decide. Over the coming days, we’re … Read more
by Charles
With the Harriet Miers controversy and CIA leak indictments getting the media full-court press, it was easy to miss the fact that the president gave an historic foreign policy speech on Wednesday. Bringing us back to the days of the Reagan era, he stepped up and proclaimed that one of the country’s most nettlesome nations should no longer exist. World leaders reacted harshly to this bit of war-mongering.
by Charles Michael Yon has been doing yeoman’s work with the on-the-ground entries of his experiences in Iraq. He is highly perceptive and adept at writing what he sees. In his Embed post, this paragraph leapt out: So there were two tired Danish TV2 journalists, the American TV man, and me, all sleeping on cots … Read more
by Charles
We should be with Tom Coburn and the fourteen other Senators who voted "yes" on his small amendment to control spending (discussed here). The fiscally responsible Senators:
Tom Coburn (R-OK) Russ Feingold (D-WI) Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Jim DeMint (R-SC) David Vitter (R-LA) Mary Landrieu (D-LA) John Sununu (R-NH) Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Richard Burr (R-NC) Wayne Allard (R-CO) Jeff Sessions (R-AL) Evan Bayh (D-IN) Mike DeWine (R-OH) Kent Conrad (D-ND) George Allen (R-VA)
by Charles Dan Darling put together a couple of good posts. The first urged Americans to send aid quickly to Pakistan in the wake of last weekend’s quake, obviously for humanitarian purposes but also to lessen the influence of MDI ("Markaz ud-Dawa wal Irshad, a Wahhabi organization founded in 1987 by Zafar Iqbal and bin … Read more
by Charles
But I’m leaning more toward the Rebel Alliance than the Loyalists. Ed Morrissey describes the three camps of conservatives regarding the nomination of Harriet Miers, putting himself in the Trench-Dwelling Dogface category:
Despite our normal support for the president, we Dogfaces fail to recognize George Bush’s supposed brilliance in naming his personal lawyer to the bench, whatever Hugh Hewitt says. Even if Miers obviously has earned Bush’s trust, she just as obviously has done nothing remarkable to earn the trust of conservatives; being a mover and shaker in the American Bar Association doesn’t lend her much credibility among those who have watched that group get more and more politically activist in what we view as the wrong direction. Most of us have tired of the "trust me" approach. In short, we find ourselves with some sympathy for the Rebel Alliance.
However, we also see the realistic outcome of the bloody civil war that threatens to split the GOP over what clearly is a White House blunder — one compounded by White House adviser Ed Gillespie’s charging the Rebel Alliance with "sexism" at last week’s meeting. With important mid-term elections next year and at least one more Supreme Court opening likely during Bush’s term, we want to avoid a party schism that could make him a prematurely lame duck and hand the Democrats an opportunity to seize control of one or both houses of Congress.
It is undeniable that the undocumented and undistinguished Miers is a Bush crony, as Bill Kristol called her, and Bush’s pleas of "trust me" fall on deaf ears because he signed the campaign finance reform bill even though he proclaimed that he thought it was unconstitutional. This is defending and upholding the constitution? George Will is right. Far as I’m concerned, because he violated his oath of office (among other multiple missteps large and small), he has lost the trust of many conservatives, myself included. Bush should have nominated a notable conservative jurist, not a Mystery Date. Bill Kristol is also right that Miers should fall on her sword. Supporting her may not give Hugh Hewitt indigestion, but it sure makes me queasy.
by Charles
Plenty of blame has been placed at the feet of the Bush administration for its slow and bureaucratic responses to Hurricane Katrina, and rightly so. But what I don’t see is how the response was racist, and the comments alleging such by African American leaders, elected and otherwise, is both galling and dishonest. This is not to deny that racism still exists in the American south. I saw it personally, on numerous occasions in numerous homes over twenty years ago, and an ugly thing like racial bigotry takes a long time to go away. Generations. Yes, progress has been made, but there’s a long way to go.
The hurricane revealed quite a few things, one of them being that society can break down easily and quickly under the right (or wrong) circumstances. Another revelation was how quickly and reflexively race inciters got on the case and injected their vitriol into the situation. A few examples:
by Charles
With all of the budgetary numbers flying around in the wake of Katrina, I did a little number crunching myself, but rather than just see the short term, I looked back the last twenty five years in five-year increments and then looked forward to 2010 (full disclosure: I’m a CPA by training, not an economist). Given the longer perspective, there are both encouraging and excouraging aspects to our fiscal future. First, the spreadsheet, using CBO historical and projected figures:
by Charles Somehow, I don’t think this Chinese cosmetics company will fully disclose the ingredients on its jars of face cream. The Guardian: A Chinese cosmetics company is using skin harvested from the corpses of executed convicts to develop beauty products for sale in Europe, an investigation by the Guardian has discovered. Agents for the … Read more
This is the quintessential iceberg post, since virtually all of it is submerged below the fold. It’s long, rambling, self-analyzing and probably not considered a "feel-good" piece. You’ve been warned.
(Update at the end)
Behind-the-curtain statement by a Redstate editor: "Bush knew Gilligan was sick and he didn’t lift a finger." What say an open thread?
Lapses in planning, funding and rescue efforts have abounded in New Orleans, revealed at the federal, state and local levels. In terms of planning, relevant details are found in this emergency preparedness document:
(Multiple updates and additions below the fold)
by Charles
My memory is muddy what’s this river that I’m in?
New Orleans is sinking man and I don’t wanna swim
—Tragically Hip, 1989
I’ve said it before, I’m saying it now, and I’ll probably say it again when he utters something stupid (and he will): Dennis Hastert is a Speaker of the House who should not speak in public.
It makes no sense to spend billions of dollars to rebuild a city that’s seven feet under sea level, House Speaker Dennis Hastert said of federal assistance for hurricane-devastated New Orleans.
Although he later corrected himself, Dennis Hastert is a fool, and George Friedman’s words could not make the foolishness clearer: New Orleans is a geopolitical prize. Some excerpts:
by Charles The latest by Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is worth a whole read, so I’m only excerpting the summary: Because they lack a coherent strategy, U.S. forces in Iraq have failed to defeat the insurgency or improve security. Winning will require a new approach to counterinsurgency, one that focuses on providing security to Iraqis … Read more
by Charles For the life of me, I can’t figure what’s more unsettling: an article about an Egyptian woman promoting the practice of polygamy in her country, or the fact that this was published in the Salt Lake Tribune.