The Choices Others Make

–By Sebastian H 30 years ago my mother was in a car accident.  She was stopped in the left hand turn lane of a major intersection.  Someone blew through the light, T-boned another car, which spun around the intersection so violently it was able to hit my mother's van on three different sides.  She got … Read more

A Matter of Strategy I

–by Sebastian I feel like am barely treading water about the Trump Presidency.  It creates such a huge number of scary possibilities that I don't know how to form a good plan about what to do about it.  I normally like to tackle the big picture and then fill in details, but I can't do … Read more

Contact Increases Empathy: A Coming Out Story

–by Sebastian Tobias Rose-Stockwell has an interesting piece on polarization.  The main takeaway for me was "Contact increases empathy.  Insulation Kills it".  Though the insight that the brain sees "thousands of people believe something" and "millions of people believe something" as essentially the same thing is also important.  Tobias talks about the dynamic which reinforces … Read more

Collective Action Problems

It is generally received wisdom that a large part of Trump's success in the Republican primaries was a result of a collection action problem from there being too large of a field.  Each individual candidate realized that whomever moved against Trump first was likely to get burned badly.  Each of the candidates believed that if … Read more

Thoughts On Working Class Racism

–by Sebastian By far the biggest thing about voting is that it is very tribal. The easiest predictor of how anyone will vote is to identify the tribe they voted for last time. For most people that changes at most ONE time in their entire lifetime. Now of course it is a feedback loop–the parties … Read more

Tribalism and Brexit

–by Sebastian Leaders who fan the flames of xenophobia so that their followers lash out are evil.  Leaders who structure their systems such that a large portion of the population are on the edge of lashing out are fools.  Trump and his ilk are bad people.  But we are fools for letting it come to … Read more

Political Tribalism and the Orlando Attacks

–by Sebastian    One facet of the discussion regarding the Islamic inspired attack on the gay Pulse nightclub in Orlando is the heavy political tribalism that is already shaping the narratives, particularly regarding whether it was an Islamic terrorist attack or an anti-gay hate crime. Team Blue takes the anti-gay hate crime side of the argument … Read more

Dreams

–by Sebastian I don't often remember my dreams.  This morning I woke up into a dream where I was waking up in my bed.  I realized that the north and west walls in my room had transformed into a plexiglass and that there were no doors anymore.  There was some crazy straight guy yelling at … Read more

Tort Reform Arguments from Unexpected Places

–By Sebastian Hulk Hogan's case against Gawker has caused quite a bit of consternation.1  The concerns seem to cover a few major topics: forum shopping2, the media being chilled from conducting their normal business, the size of the award, the immense costs of defending a lawsuit, the danger of having rich third parties fund lawsuits.  In case … Read more

Query regarding the Universal Basic Income

–by Sebastian I'm attracted to the idea of the Universal Basic Income for all sorts of reasons that have been well hashed out elsewhere.  However I have a problem that I haven't seen dealt with very seriously anywhere.  It seems so obvious that I feel it should be dealt with somewhere, but I haven't seen … Read more

On Tolerance

-by Sebastian In light of Hobby Lobby and the surprising and welcome storming of the gates by gay marriage advocates in recent years, there seems to be quite a bit of talk about the virtue of tolerance.  I'm not philosophically trained but much of it seems confused.  The proximate causes of this post are this … Read more

San Diego Border Beating Raises Excessive Force Problems Against More than the Allegedly Illegal Immigrant

–by Sebastian Yesterday we were treated to yet another video of an armed officer using what appears to be excessive force against someone the officer is arresting.  (10 News )This case is murkier than some, because from the video it is still possible that the man is actually resisting arrest in some ways.  The man … Read more

Gay Marriage Ruling!

–by Sebastian   The Supreme Court got it right on DOMA.  DOMA involved the federal government trampling all over one of the traditional areas of state power–definition of marriage. I'm also thrilled to have gay marriage in my home state of California.  I believe that is the best ultimate policy result, and should I ever … Read more

Assange Bleg

–by Sebastian This isn't really important, but it has bugged me for a little while and I was reminded about it when Julian Assange came back into the news recently.  Assange says that he doesn't want to go to Sweden because he is afraid that Sweden will extradite him to the United States.  The weird … Read more

Complificating Matters

–by Sebastian There has been a 'why Paul Ryan' explosion on the internet media channels.  Just about everyone is making the analysis too complicated.  There are two essential types of Vice President picks: solidify your base voters or attempt to broaden your appeal to swing voters.  A presidential campaign tends to choose which of those … Read more

Discrection and Rule of Law

–by Sebastian Over at Crooked Timber, Chris Bertram riffs off of the recent badminton game throwing scandal at the Olympics to offer support for an organizing principle of discretion by law enforcers.  There are people who devise and employ elaborate schemes to evade or avoid (I never know which is which) their taxes whilst staying … Read more

Government Mandates And Moral Disagreement

–by Sebastian Now that the Supreme Court has ruled to uphold the PPCA, a fruitful discussion about government mandates should be more possible without immediate worries of whether gettting it 'wrong' hurts your own side or helps the other side of whichever political divide you happen to be on. I tend to buy into many … Read more

Thoughts on Drone Strikes

–Sebastian There is a pretty interesting discussion of drone strikes going on at crookedtimber, you all should check it out. I'm torn on drone strikes, so what follows aren't really conclusions about them, but rather examinations of the tension in different ways of looking at them. The Pentagon view appears to be that they are … Read more

I Don’t Like the Result, So Let’s Make the Whole System Worse!

–by Sebastian Over at the legal blog, Balkinization, Magliocca seems concerned about the possibility of the Supreme Court striking down the individual mandate of the Health Care bill, so he proposes a counter measure which on about a moment’s thought seems highly dangerous if legitimized: In the absence of a line-item veto, legislatures can coerce … Read more

Did McCain-Feingold Have A Pervese Effect?

–by Sebastian Apparently I will be continuing my recent trend of riffing on Kevin Drum's posts.  He points to this fascinating chart: Kevin notes the surprisingly stable Presidential campaign costs from 1964-2000.  I was especially surprised by 1992.  I would have thought that a three way race with the closest thing this country has had … Read more

About the Privacy

–by Sebastian

While I'm on Kevin Drum day, he makes a great post about the general unease he has with the semi creepy dossier that Target gets on its customers:

Charles Duhigg has a fascinating story in the New York Times Magazine this week that's all about the way retailers use data mining and microtargeting to sell you more stuff. Among other things, he tells the story of how Target exploited a pile of clever statistical relations to predict when women were pregnant so that they could send out coupon books full of items that pregnant women might want to buy. As it turns out, Target was unamused by Duhigg's curiosity about how this all worked. When he asked Target to comment, they refused. When he offered to fly out to company headquarters, they told him not to come. When he did anyway, a security guard escorted him off the premises. Quite plainly, Target was concerned that their customers would freak out if they discovered just how much Target knows about them and how accurately Target can aim its marketing bazookas in their direction.

And it turns out Target was right: pregnant women did freak out. So they fine-tuned their coupon books to contain a bunch of random stuff (lawnmowers, videogames) among all the pregnancy-related items. Women who got those coupon books just figured this was the stuff on sale at Target this week and had no idea that it was more than a coincidence that half the offers were for diapers and onesies.

Even more disturbing Slate reports that Romney is doing the same type of thing:

This year, however, as part of a project code-named Orca, Romney’s team is working to link once completely separate repositories of information so that every fact gathered about a voter is available to every arm of the campaign. Such information-sharing would allow the person who crafts a provocative email about religion to send it only to voters with whom canvassers have personally discussed religious views or whom data-mining targeters have pinpointed as likely to be friendly to Romney’s views on the issue.

From a technological perspective, the 2012 campaign will look to many voters much the same as 2008 did. There will not be a major innovation that seems to herald a new era in electioneering, like 1996’s debut of candidate Web pages or their use in fundraising four years later; like online organizing for campaign events in 2004 or the subsequent emergence of social media as a mass-communication tool in 2008. This year’s looming innovations in campaign mechanics will be imperceptible to the electorate, and the engineers at Romney's headquarters racing to complete Narwhal in time for the fall election season may be at work at one of the most important. If successful, Orca would fuse the multiple identities of the engaged citizen—the online activist, the offline voter, the donor, the volunteer—into a single, unified political profile.

Yikes!

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A Great Issue for Federalism

–by Sebastian I read Kevin Drum almost every day, and today he hit a bunch of issues that I think are worth thinking about.  One of them is this one.  It talks about Obama's vexing about face on medical marijuana.  In light of recent discussions, it strikes me that this is a perfect area for … Read more

Much More Restricted In Europe

–by Sebastian

I was recently having a discussion with a friend, and she wondered why abortion remained such a big deal in politics in the United States while its political valence in Europe was nearly zero.  It seemed to me that it was because European restrictions on abortion tend to be much more restrictive than those in the US, and thus much more in line with most people's intuitions about a fetus having a protectable interest as it became close to becoming a separate child.  She thought that was crazy because she thought that abortion laws were much more permissive in Europe than in the United States.

It isn't true.  A very large number of European states (and most of the large ones) have much more restrictive abortions laws than even the very most restrictive states in the US.  I think most left leaning people in the US imagine that you can't have a progressive state with dramatically tighter abortion restrictions.  Here is evidence to the contrary.  (Largely though not entirely culled from here)  Significant abortion restrictions in the States do not kick in until week 24 (if at all). 

Sweden

Gestational limit: 18 weeks

Conditions: Between 12 and 18 weeks of gestation, the women must discuss the procedure with a social worker. After 18 weeks, permission must be obtained from the National Board of Health and Welfare.

France

Generally available only in the first 12 weeks.  After that, two physicians must separately certify that the abortion will be done to prevent grave permanent injury to the physical or mental health of the pregnant woman; a risk to the life of the pregnant woman; or that the child will suffer from a particularly severe illness recognized as incurable. A multi-disciplinary diagnostic center is required to certify if relying on the birth defect exemption.[more beyond the fold]

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Is This Corruption?

While browsing the interwebs today, I noticed that a wide variety of companies and websites are engaged in a protest regarding the atrocious Stop Online Piracy Act.  The most elegant one is Google's: The recent campaign against the SOPA strikes me as both good and necessary.  But I immediately wondered how it fit with recent … Read more

Focusing On The Wrong Thing

–by Sebastian H I have a constant frustration with the legal system: that its mechanisms often cause a focus on the wrong thing.  I don't mean that it focuses in areas I think are unimportant–though that happens too.   I mean that even if it is looking in an important area, the structure of the legal … Read more

Things that Make me Want to Scream

-by Sebastian Sorry I've been gone a while.  I've been having a crisis in faith, so to speak, and for various reasons I can't talk about it.  Interestingly, while my problem is not law enforcement related, it does have to deal with my relationship with the system of law in a way which is similar … Read more

Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, Finally Gone

–by Sebastian   I don't have much to say on the underlying issue that isn't being said better elsewhere.  It was unjust, ridiculous, and it is well for the country and the armed forces that it is gone.  I'm not going to tell the stories of friends whose lives will be made better by this–though … Read more

WikiLeaks: Distinctions I didn’t know I made

–by Sebastian I feel like I'm still sorting through my thoughts about WikiLeaks.  So if this seems a bit contradictory, that may very well be because I'm of (at least) two minds about the whole thing.  But it seems to me like the issue lacks balance.  My pre-WikiLeaks initial thoughts on such issues were something … Read more

Reid Screws Over Gays

–by Sebastian Democratic Majority Leader of the Senate, Harry Reid, screwed over gay people on Don't Ask Don't Tell. With around 70% of Americans, and in most polls even a majority of Republicans, opposing the policy, it is amazing that he couldn't didn't get it done. Or it would be amazing, except for the fact … Read more