As They Stand Up, We…Better Duck

by Eric Martin In an effort to cobble together a plausible number of boots on the ground to match thegrandiose mish-mosh strategy of multi-decade counterinsurgency, counterterrorism and nation building in Afghanistan, US forces are, again, relying on the ability to raise, outfit and train highly motivated, disciplined and effective indigenous fighting force.  In addition to making up for … Read more

Wanted: Thread or Alive

by Eric Martin By popular request, an open thread.  Possible topics of conversation: Election results in New Jersey, Virginia and upstate New York – as well as ballot measures in Maine.  Or: whatever suits your fancy. Rock on.

Someone’s Got His Game Face On

by Eric Martin Baby Eric says, "Grplmergggg, aaaah, bayanhhherr" [translation: Let's Go Yankees!] In other baby related news, last night marked Eric's first foray into the world of pants wearing.  It was quite a milestone, all baggy and baby blue.

Irreconcilable Differences?

by Eric Martin One justification for continuing (and possibly escalating) our military/non-military commitment in Afghanistan centers around the potential for al-Qaeda to establish safe havens in that country from which to coordinate attacks on US targets.  This al-Qaeda-based rationale rests on several assumptions that include, but perhaps are not limited to: 1. If we withdraw or significantly reduce our military presence, the Taliban will retake Afghanistan (presumably that … Read more

Contracts and All That, Guns! Guns!

by Eric Martin Quotable 'conservative dissident' Daniel Larison on the GOP's bizarre obsession with the decision by the Obama administration to scale back the prior administration's missile defense policies in Eastern Europe: Cheney’s recent speech at the Center for Security Policy is much what you would expect from him, but that is not what interests me here. … Read more

The Af-Pak Unpack

by Eric Martin The New York Times, to its credit, attempts to dispel some of the stubborn misinformation concerning the interchangeability (or lack thereof) of the Afghan Taliban faction and Pakistani Taliban faction.  Contrary to popular and pervasive fictions, these two groups are quite distinct in terms of strategy and objectives. As it devises a New Afghanistan … Read more

The Big Bang Theory

Guest post by Gary Farber.  Gary’s home blog is Amygdala, and he invites you to read him there. 

For my final guest post at Obsidian Wings, something completely different: a roundup of some recent science, or tech, or just downright weird, sci-tech news, or that’s at least news to me, as well as an item or two of the fantastic.

Green your factories with electron beam particle accelerators:

[…] While environmental applications of particle accelerators have made little progress commercially in the United States in the last 40 years, a number of countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East are actively pursuing the technology.

In Daegu, Korea, an electron-beam accelerator in a textile factory removes toxic dyes from 10,000 cubic meters of wastewater per day. In Szczecin, Poland, the Pomorzany power station installed an electron-beam accelerator in its coal plant to simultaneously remove sulfur dioxides and nitrogen oxides from roughly 270,000 cubic meters of flue gas per hour. China has started to use electron beams to control air pollution, and a facility in Bulgaria is under construction. Saudi Arabia may soon follow.

All you have to do for more widespread use is ensmall them. 

[…] “We have proven that the technology works,” says Andrzej Chmielewski, director of the Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology in Warsaw, Poland. “The size of the accelerators can be huge, though. We need a technological breakthrough” to make accelerators smaller and easier to maintain.

But they’re working on that!  With plasma wakefield acceleration and laser wakefield acceleration

Oh, and who do you have to thank for that?

[…] Thanks in great part to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, commonly known as the stimulus package,

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Dancing In The Dark

Guest post by Gary Farber.  Gary's home blog is Amygdala, and he invites you to read him there.

[Eric Martin: My friend Gary is going to be pitching in for a couple of days as I adjust to the enhanced parenting techniques that my son is submitting me too.  And yes, sleep deprivation is torture.]

On December 31, 2009, three provisions of "Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism (USA PATRIOT ACT) Act of 2001," aka the "PATRIOT Act,"  sunset and expire.

Bills to reauthorize or amend these three provisions have been moving through the Congressional Judiciary Committees in the past two months.

The three sections are:  

SEC. 206. ROVING SURVEILLANCE AUTHORITY UNDER THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SURVEILLANCE ACT OF 1978. Section 105(c)(2)(B) of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 (50 U.S.C. 1805(c)(2)(B)) is amended by inserting 'or in circumstances where the Court finds that the actions of the target of the application may have the effect of thwarting the identification of a specified person, such other persons,' after 'specified person'.

This is also known as "the John Doe" provision.

SEC. 215. ACCESS TO RECORDS AND OTHER ITEMS UNDER THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SURVEILLANCE ACT.

Also known as the section dealing with "national security letters," by which:

The Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation or a designee of the Director (whose rank shall be no lower than Assistant Special Agent in Charge) may make an application for an order requiring the production of any tangible things (including books, records, papers, documents, and other items) for an investigation to protect against international terrorism or clandestine intelligence activities [….]

The third is:

SEC. 805. MATERIAL SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM.

What are these about, and why should we care?, you ask. As the ACLU explains:

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Hey, Joe, Where You Going With That Gun In Your Hand? Pt. II

Guest post by Gary Farber.  Gary's home blog is Amygdala, and he invites you to read him there.

[Eric Martin: My friend Gary is going to be pitching in for a couple of days as I adjust to the enhanced parenting techniques that my son is submitting me too.  And yes, sleep deprivation is torture.]

Part I of this two-part post is here.

Pt. II:

First we have to distinguish between the Taliban and al Qaeda. Then we have to analyze what threat either actually presents. And then we have to do a cost-benefit analysis of what's the best course of action. The essential war with al Qaeda, both insofar as al Qaeda remains any kind of organization, and, more importantly, insofar as it remains an inspiration to jihadists, is an ideological war, not a military war. The Taliban now have tried a YouTube channel for propaganda. The best way to fight al Qaeda is to fight their ideology, and we're doing okay at that. From 2008:

[…] These new critics, in concert with mainstream Muslim leaders, have created a powerful coalition countering Al Qaeda's ideology. According to Pew polls, support for Al Qaeda has been dropping around the Muslim world in recent years. The numbers supporting suicide bombings in Indonesia, Lebanon, and Bangladesh, for instance, have dropped by half or more in the last five years. In Saudi Arabia, only 10 percent now have a favorable view of Al Qaeda, according to a December poll by Terror Free Tomorrow, a Washington-based think tank. Following a wave of suicide attacks in Pakistan in the past year, support for suicide operations amongst Pakistanis has dropped to 9 percent (it was 33 percent five years ago), while favorable views of bin Laden in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan, around where he is believed to be hiding, have plummeted to 4 percent from 70 percent since August 2007.

We can continue presenting an alternative. Many play up contemporary al Qaeda-Taliban ties, but that's highly questionable, as Gareth Porter writes:

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Hey, Joe, where you going with that gun in your hand? Pt. I.

Guest post by Gary Farber (thanks to Eric Martin, who understandably is busy!  And double congrats to Eric for all that family-makin' stuff he's been doin'!)

Gary's home blog is Amygdala, and he invites you to read him there.

[Eric Martin: My friend Gary is going to be pitching in for a couple of days as I adjust to the enhanced parenting techniques that my son is submitting me too.  And yes, sleep deprivation is torture.]

A post in two parts.  Part I:

On Friday night's PBS Newshour, Tom Bearden gave the following report from Fort Carson: 

 (Audio-only, if you have bandwidth issues.  Click the above link for a transcript.)

I was struck cold.

I've been to that chapel.

I've seen the upended rifle with the soldier's own helmet atop it, and boots beside it.

I've been there for the chilling sound and sight of the honor guards' rifle-shot salute.

I've listened to the bagpipes, and seen the faces of the family and friends, just as we see and hear in this video.

Then it was one soldier's boots and rifle. 

On Friday, it was six at once.

This is the cost of our Long War in Afghanistan.

This is the price our families, and sons and daughters, and parents, are paying.

It's been eight years and a week since American forces began combat in Afghanistan.

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The Dude

by Eric Martin

After what were 30+ hours of grueling labor (for me mostly, though my wife seemed to be in some type of pain as well – I’ll have to check back with her on that), Eric Jae-Young Lee Martin finally decided to join us on Saturday, October 10th at 11:36 a.m. 

In addition to taking his time once the whole show got under way, my son also decided that the fact that dad had tickets to Friday night’s Yankee playoff game was entirely beside the point.  Luckily, my good friend Steve (who benefitted from my son’s irregular sense of timing) was kind enough to phone me after what was one of the more dramatic playoff wins for the Yanks in a while to let me know that Mark Teixeira’s game-winning, 11th inning, walk-off home runs landed 5 rows in front of my his seats.

Still, I think it’s clear I came out the winner.  I believe he calls this look “Velvet Steel” but it’s hard to make out his words as he tends to mumble. 

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Wanna Grow Up to be a Debaser

by Eric Martin

Given the ongoing debate about US policy in Afghanistan, and the interplay of al-Qaeda in that decision making process, some background on al-Qaeda's origins and goals would be worthwhile to examine.

al-Qaeda's ideology and outlook are rooted in an Egyptian, not Saudi or Afghan, tradition (drawing heavily on Qutbism and similar doctrine).  Many of al-Qaeda's founding members are veterans of the struggle between groups of militant Salafists and the secular regimes of Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak.  One of al-Qaeda's central figures, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was a member of a group (Egyptian Islamic Jihad) that was implicated in, amongst other activitites, assassination attempts on Sadat. 

After being imprisoned and tortured for one such assassination plot, an even more radicalized Zawahiri left Egypt for Saudi Arabia and then Pakistan – where he lead a splinter group of Egyptian Islamic Jihad members who were disillusioned with the organization's unwillingness to embrace the takfirist doctrine (or the practice of declaring other Muslims apostates, thus circumventing Koranic prohibitions on the killing of Muslims).

Osama bin Laden, for his part, was one of the 54 children of Muhammed bin Laden - a self made construction mogul of Yemeni nationality (though he relocated to Saudi Arabia at a young age).  His mother was a relatively poor Syrian villager, who was married off to the elder bin Laden at young age, giving birth to Osama at the age of 15.  Ironically, one of the world's most recognizable Saudis is the son of a Yemeni and Syrian.

His path to radicalization began with the tutelage of members of the Muslim Brotherhood (an organization of Egyptian origins) in Saudi Arabia, which teachings were later augmented by al-Zawahiri while both were in Pakistan during the conflict in Afghanistan.  As bin Laden and Zawihiri became close, a nascent, though still formless, precursor to al-Qaeda began to coalesce around a worldview rooted in expansive Salafist/Qutbist thought.  

Soon thereafter, the formerly unwieldy mass of likeminded radicals was whittled down to "the base" or "al-Qaeda."  Two events led to the self selection of al-Qaeda within this context. Initially, when the Afghan campaign ended, many jihadists went back to their nations of origin leaving behind only the most die-hard and those incapable of returning home (often one and the same). Then, this core group (headed by bin Laden himself) migrated to Sudan. bin Laden's group was expelled from that safe-haven in the mid-1990s, and, while some members scattered, bin Laden and his core opted to return to Afghanistan, which again caused a winnowing of the ranks until only the most committed and, increasingly, the most anti-American were left behind to form the vanguard of the Salafist jihadist movement.

The primary raison d'etre of this group, animated by the belief that secular regimes in the Muslim world are quislings of the United States, apostate in character and "against Islam," became to overthrow the corrupt leaders and replace them with proper Islamic rulers and Sharia law (such process to be replicated across the region until there is the contiguous, quasi-mythical, caliphate). By restoring this form of pure Islam, it is believed, the Muslim world will be rewarded by Allah and returned to glory.

Initial attempts to spark revolutions and usher in pure Islamic rule in places like Sudan, Chechnya and the Balkans were unsuccessful, and attacks in places like Egypt were not well received by the locals.  At this point, there was a shift in strategy for the demoralized group. Zawahiri counseled in favor of targeting the "far enemy" (read: the United States) as a means of expediting the toppling of local leaders (the "near enemy").  According to Zawahiri, al-Qaeda could not unseat the target regimes because they were being propped up by the U.S.  If al-Qaeda could cause the US to withdraw its support, however, the regimes would then be vulnerable to usurpation. 

In addition, while targeting fellow Muslims (the representatives of the governments being attacked) was alienating potential recruits, striking the US would galvanize support and create a mass movement that would be primed to topple the regimes once the US was chased from the region. Osama bought into this shift in focus, and began issuing calls for action against the U.S. interests everywhere.

The linchpin to this strategy was to provoke the US into invading a Muslim country (Afghanistan) and thus tie it down for several years of futile - and excessively costly - warfare, while Muslims from throughout the world poured in to join the cause. Then, with the US weakened, bankrupt, fatigued and unable/unwilling to project power and provide resources to its Middle Eastern allies, a reinvigorated al-Qaeda would launch its "near" campaign anew, with its army of new recruits already mobilized.

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For the Good of the People

by Eric Martin In the debate over the future of US policy in Afghanistan, it is taken as a given by most proponents of prolonging the occupation that our presence is benefiting the Afghan people.  According to this view, we are a bulwark against Taliban aggression – a prophylactic for a liberal-minded, yet vulnerable, contingent of Afghan … Read more

My Wandering Days Are Over…

by Eric Martin Today, I got married to the most beautiful woman in the world.  Both beautiful because she is on the outside, and also because she puts up with me.  It ain’t easy.  She’s special.  I’m just a louse.  

Yeah, About that ACORN Law

by Eric Martin To follow up on the discussion about the ACORN hoopla that sprung up in the comments to one of Lindsay's recent posts, what we know is that some ACORN employees were caught on video engaging in unethical and, possibly in some instances, illegal behavior.  What we also know is that some ACORN employees … Read more

Interests, We All Got ‘Em

by Eric Martin This is so strange.  It’s almost as if Pakistan puts Pakistan’s interests ahead of ours.  Don’t they know who we are? Despite growing U.S. military losses in Afghanistan, Pakistan still refuses to target the extremist groups on its soil that are the biggest threat to the American-led mission there, the U.S. ambassador … Read more

Well, One Out of Three Ain’t Bad

by Eric Martin At long last, the Obama administration has provided a draft of its objectives  with respect to the ongoing military occupation of Afghanistan, as well as a series of metrics for gauging the success in terms of meeting those aims.  Unfortunately, the enunciated objectives are themselves typical of the muddled and contradictory goals, tactics and … Read more

Premature Evacuation?

by Eric Martin James Joyner passes along some rather unremarkable news about India's views on the ongoing US occupation of Afghanistan - unremarkable news given the regional dynamic that pits India (in support of the Karzai government) against Pakistan (who had strongly backed the Taliban as its proxy/ally in Afghanistan): India's new ambassador to the United States, Meera Shankar, … Read more

You Probably Think this War is About You

by Eric Martin Despite President Bush's post-9/11, manichean-tinged attempt to categorize other nations as either "with us or against us" with respect to those terrorist groups that the US government considers problematic, and despite an understandable impulse on the part of the US government to put US interests ahead of those of other states (a tendency that spans … Read more

In Tatters, Shattered

by Eric Martin One of the unfortunate side-effects of the overhyping of the "success" of The Surge in Iraq, and the counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine that supposedly facilitated that success, has been the belief that we can fix what ails our effort in Afghanistan by replicating that approach: applying COIN doctrine coupled with a troop surge.  What gets left out of … Read more

A Precedent that will Reach to Himself

by Eric Martin Andrew Sullivan is right:  The document reads, like so much else from the Cheney years, like a document from a South American  dictatorship in the 1970s or 1980s. If someone had told me a few years ago that it had popped up in the Soviet archives, I would have believed him. Read … Read more

The Passing of Torches

by Eric Martin Just as the death of Edward Kennedy marks the passing of one of the most prominent politicians in the American political firmament, today the Iraqi political scene lost one of its key figures as well.  Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of one of Iraq's main Shiite political parties, the Islamic Supreme Council of … Read more

Just Because I’m Paranoid…

by Eric Martin The Blue Beelzebub opines on the recent revelations from Tom Ridge that the Bush administration manipulated terror warnings for political gain: Sometimes it's a bit hard to remember just how nutty the world was in those post-9/11 days. Suggesting that Bush was using the terror alert for political purposes would have made you … Read more

The SOFA Stick

by Eric Martin While President Bush was still in office and his administration was trying to come to an agreement with the Iraqi government on terms governing the continued troop presence in Iraq (what is referred to as the Status of Forces Agreement, or “SOFA”), Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani made a public statement demanding that … Read more

Well, What Did You Expect?

by Eric Martin When faced with a staggering, worldwide economic meltdown spurred on by the greed and excess of our financial sector, the Obama administration (picking up where its predecessor left off) chose to…trust that same financial sector to sort out the problems, with the sorting out to be facilitated by an enormous chunk of taxpayer money.  This money came … Read more

Bleg: So I’m Aboot to Go to Toronto…

by Eric Martin I'll only be in Toronto for one night (am travelling to a nearby destination for a wedding), and I have two blegs: 1.  What is the best hotel (with money not being an enormous object)? 2.  What/Where is the most fun to be had (and what restaurants are good/unique to Toronto)? Thank you in … Read more

Ingrates Abound

by Eric Martin Some Afghan women don't seem to appreciate all the freedom and democracy that we've been bringing: The U.S. invasion has been a failure, and increasing the U.S. troop presence will not undo the destruction the war has brought to the daily lives of Afghans. …[T]he tired claim that one of the chief … Read more

I’m Creepin’ and I’m Creepin’

by Eric Martin Marc Lynch makes a very good point: Suppose the U.S. succeeded beyond all its wildest expectations, and turned Afghanistan into Nirvana on Earth, an orderly, high GDP nirvana with universal health care and a robust wireless network (and even suppose that it did this without the expense depriving Americans of the same things).  … Read more

Disintegration

by Eric Martin Robert Farley commenting on the Blackwater scandals as summed up in this highly recommended article by Jeremy Scahill: All that said, I wonder if the notion of a "civilized" mercenary company is simply an oxymoron. This is to say that, while we can identify situations in which a mercenary company might be … Read more

Defining Ransom Down

by Eric Martin It's Ralph Peters, so there's plenty wrong with this column, but this part in particular stuck out to me: Former President Bill Clinton crawled (well, flew in a Hollywood bigwig's jet) to Pyongyang to stroke the world's nuttiest dictator to free two journalists on ex-VP Al Gore's payroll. Glad the gals are … Read more

Waterloo Sunset

by Eric Martin He's got a point: As a columnist who regularly dishes out sharp criticism, I try not to question the motives of people with whom I don't agree. Today, I'm going to step over that line. The recent attacks by Republican leaders and their ideological fellow-travelers on the effort to reform the health-care … Read more

The Pony Express Local, Part II

by Eric Martin In another example of the pushback against Colonel Reese's call for a slightly accelerated timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, The New Republic's Michael Crowley makes an appeal to the "tar baby conundrum," as I termed it back in March 2008: The tar baby conundrum goes something like this: If things in Iraq are chaotic and violent, well, … Read more

Oh Afghanistan, Went Too Far Again, Crashed Our Car in the Rain

by Eric Martin Quote of the day material from Rory Stewart who cleverly sums up the mindset of our "strategic class" – an echelon of "experts" that establish a disturbing level of continuity in outlook from one administration to the next, Republican or Democratic: Since arriving at Harvard in June last year, [Stewart]has been consultant to several members of … Read more