Eric Martin

A Woman’s Realm?

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by Eric Martin Below is an excerpt from a truly brilliant piece written by Catherine Connors, which examines on some of the themes and motifs that were prevalent at the TEDWomen conference that she attended last year. With clarity and eloquence, Connors lays bare the ways in which even ostensible celebrations of woman-empowerment can, even if inadvertantly, serve to … Read more

Niallism

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by Eric Martin There have been two recent reviews of Niall Ferguson's most recent book that are very worth reading. The first, by Pankaj Mishra, is a methodical survey of Ferguson's recent works, with a concise accounting of the many glaring gaps in knowledge and sloppy methodology that afflict Ferguson's pseudo-scholarship (including, of course, in his latest offering).  While Mishra discusses the … Read more

The Last Refuge of Climate Change Skeptics

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by Eric Martin Kevin Drum recounts an intriguing tale of a Koch-funded, climate change skeptic (Richard Muller) who undertook a scientific study to test what were thought to be the hyped numbers about increased global temperatures.  A funny thing happened along the way: Muller's study actually confirmed that, as the overwhelming consensus of climate scientists holds, temperatures over the … Read more

On Rhetoric and Regime Change: This Is How I End Up Sucked In

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by Eric Martin A recent piece by Micah Zenko highlights an aspect of the interplay between rhetoric and regime change that I want to offer a general comment on. First, the relevant excerpt: On July 11, when asked about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton answered: “From our perspective, he has lost legitimacy, … Read more

Tactician, Plan Thyself

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by Eric Martin Given my oft–stated concern about what a potential post-Qaddafi period will look like (would there be purges/an insurgency, would it require a peacekeeping/nation building mission, overseen by which groups/nations, etc.), these paragraphs from a recent New York Times piece on the conflict in Libya stood out: …Britain’s foreign secretary, William Hague, returning from a brief … Read more

Start Another Fire and Watch It Slowly Die: The Aftermath of Regime Change

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by Eric Martin Adam Curtis, a documentary filmmaker, traces a loose history of the modern concept of humanitarian intervention in the West and its philosophical underpinnings - punctuated, unsurprisingly, with several compelling documentary film clips. While historians may quibble with certain aspects of his rendition, there was one passage that stood out:  The movement had begun back in Biafra because a … Read more

Tell Me How This Ends

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by Eric Martin

There has been an increasing chorus of voices urging the US (acting with its allies in NATO, the UN or in tandem with some ad hoc coalition of the willing) to impose a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace, with lawmakers from both parties, as well as foreign leaders, making appeals to implement some variation of such a policy in recent days.

To some extent, this impulse is understandable given the increasingly violent clashes in Libya, with government forces making gains on rebel positions and showing a willingness to use indiscriminate force in populated areas.  

On the other hand, when pondering the involvement of US forces, first and foremost, elected leaders must consider whether such an intervention is in our national interest, and, if so, what can realistically be accomplished and at what costs.  Along those lines, it is essential to establish what the objective of the intervention would be and what future actions will be necessitated/spurred on by the initial decision to intervene militarily. To paraphrase General Petraeus, "Tell me how this ends."

Despite legitimate concerns for civilian casualties, and the potential for atrocities, thus far Qaddafi has been primarily using air power to combat rebel forces within his nation's borders.  The effect of a no-fly zone, then, would be to prevent Qaddafi from being able to use air power in that fight (as well as to safeguard civilians from airborne assaults). 

Thus, even if justified on humanitarian grounds, the no-fly zone would serve the purpose of tilting the battlefield in favor of rebel forces - though some argue that supporting the rebels should be an explicit goal in itself, with the no-fly zone buttressed (or replaced) by arms and other aid provided directly to rebel forces.  Regardless, these outcomes raise several important questions about who we are supporting, to what ends, and to what extent we will be expected to participate in the process.

1. Do we know what the majority of Libyan rebels want and how they envision the future state of Libya in the post-Qaddafi era?  While there is a tendency to view these uprisings, and their participants, through Western-tinted lenses, those Libyans that are involved in the uprising are not monolithic in their outlook, nor are they uniformly pursuing a revolutionary democratic agenda.

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The Curious Urgency of Now

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by Eric Martin Like Erik (sic) Kain, I find myself puzzling at the sudden, arbitrary hyperfocus on deficits, debt and fiscal austerity: The notion that we need to balance the budget and pay down the debt right now is just taken for granted with no real attempt to explain why. Is inflation out of control? … Read more

The Mubarak Moment: An Opportunity for Israelis

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Guest Post by Benjamin Orbach & Samir I Toubassy It is hard to believe that Israelis are watching the scenes from Cairo with anything but dread. Yet, the Arab Awakening has presented Israelis with an opportunity to secure their place in the Middle East. The Arab-Israeli conflict has led many Israelis to believe that armed … Read more

Desperation Is the Devil’s Work

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by Eric Martin While details of the story have been partially buried the piles of snow blanketing the northeast, the frenzy of attention paid to the State of the Union address and the draw of the potentially paradigm-shifting events in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world, in what should be a newsworthy event, Al Jazeera … Read more

On the Brink of Collapse

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by Eric Martin Wikileaks has shed some light on the controversial blockade of Gaza, a subject that recveived rare (and fleeting) attention in US media when a flotilla of aid to that besieged region was attacked by Israeli soldiers in the Spring/Summer of 2010. At the time, there was some discussion of the purpose of the blockade: with … Read more

MAJ. Andrew Olmsted

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 by Gary Farber

Olmsted

Andrew Olmsted was my friend. 

He honored me with that. 

He's in my thoughts, every day, several times a day.

Please forgive me for being very personal in this post.  I am also apt to edit it and change some of it.

Hilzoy on January 04, 2008:

Andrew Olmsted, who also posted here as G'Kar, was killed yesterday in Iraq. Andy gave me a post to publish in the event of his death; the last revisions to it were made in July.

Andy was a wonderful person: decent, honorable, generous, principled, courageous, sweet, and very funny. The world has a horrible hole in it that nothing can fill. I'm glad Andy — generous as always — wrote something for me to publish now, since I have no words at all. Beyond: Andy, I will miss you.

My thoughts are with his wife, his parents, and his brother and sister.

As mine also always are, every day.  I think of Wes, Andrew's father.  I think of Nancy, Andrew's mother.  I think of Amanda, Andrew's wife.  I think of Eric, known as "Enrak" when he was commenting on blogs, primarily Andrew's.

I've met them all.

I think of Corrine, Eric's wife, and writing by her I read via Wes, and now I'll think of Catherine, Andrew's sister. 

I think of these men:

Andy's unit

Wes Olmsted wrote me this of himself and his Nancy on November 10th, 2010:

We both think of Andy every day, it seems so impossible that he has been gone for so long.  Sometimes I come down the stairs and open up my emails just hoping that somehow he has written again. 
 
I did want to let you know that there is a new "Andrew" in town.  Eric and Corinne have named their new son William Andrew Olmsted.  We spent Thanksgiving with them and really enjoyed our time with them.  How Andy would have enjoyed this young man! 
 
Life goes on but not as well as it used to.  Nancy and I will be moving back to Maine next June, after she retires.  We are having a house built in central Maine at the head of Penobscot Bay.  The best part is that we will be close enough to Eric, Corinne, and Will to see them much more often.

Andy and I went back to 2002 together.  We started blogging within two months of each other.  Myself on December 30th, 2001, and Andrew at on Andrew Olmsted.com on 2/04/2002 07:42:00 AM.

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The Reign of Witches Has Not Passed

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by Eric Martin “The degree of civilization in a society can be judged by entering its prisons.” -Fyodor Dostoevsky Glenn Greenwald has unearthed some disturbing accounts of the five month (and counting) detention of Army Private Bradley Manning, the suspect accused of leaking classified material to WikiLeaks. Again, he is a suspect who is accused of … Read more

A Settlement Worth Assembling

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by Eric Martin

The recent collapse of the Palestinian/Israeli peace talks – and the Obama administration's failure to obtain even modest settlement freeze assurances from the Netanyahu government - has, ironically, been met with a rare bout of optimism from several observers.  The optimism stems, in part, from the fact that the recent collapse of the peace process may, once and for all, sound the death knell for a road to nowhere that has been the only path traveled to the exclusion of other avenues.

Now, with the peace process in shambles, and the demographic time bomb in Israel ticking, present and future necessity combined with past futility, could give birth to new, more promising strategies.  Along those lines, Daniel Levy (in nibbles), Amjad Atallah and Bassma Kodmani (in more substantial form) (pdf) and Robert Wright are beginning to flesh out what one such new approach would look like: a UN-led solution, and its relative advantages.  From Wright:

There is a strategy that could actually work. It would take boldness on President Obama’s part, but it could win him a place in history and the enduring gratitude of most Jews and Palestinians.

Seizing the opportunity involves first seeing the flaw in one premise of our current policy. As Clinton put that premise on Friday, “The United States and the international community cannot impose a solution. Sometimes I think both parties seem to think we can. We cannot.”

Yes we can.

The United Nations created a Jewish state six decades ago, and it can create a Palestinian state now. It can define the borders, set the timetable and lay down the rules for Palestinian elections (specifying, for example, that the winners must swear allegiance to a constitution that acknowledges Israel’s right to exist).

Establishing such a state would involve more tricky issues than can be addressed in this space…But, however messy this solution may seem, it looks pretty good when you realize how hopeless the current process is.

Palestinians and Israelis have taken turns impeding this process, and lately Israel has been in the lead. A raft of American inducements failed to get Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to forgo for even three months the construction of Israeli settlements that are banned under international law. It would be nice to think that this is just a phase, the product of an ephemeral far-right coalition. But there are signs that Israel’s drift to the right runs deep.

Only last week the chief rabbis in dozens of Israeli municipalities — who get government salaries — decreed that landlords shouldn’t rent to non-Jews. Meanwhile, hard-line settlers are systematically populating the upper levels of the military. And moderates seem to be heading for the exits. From 2000 to 2009 the number of Israelis applying for permanent residence in America nearly doubled. […]

By comparison, a United Nations solution looks Israel-friendly. Borders could be drawn to accommodate some of the thickest Israeli settlements along the 1967 lines (while giving the new Palestinian state land in exchange). But perhaps the biggest advantage is the political cover this approach would give President Obama. […]

By contrast, the current path involves Obama taking political heat every time he tries to move Netanyahu a few inches toward the goal line. And there are 97 yards to go.

A prediction: if the United Nations does take the initiative, domestic resistance will be largely confined to the right wing of American Jewish opinion. Vast numbers of American (and Israeli) Jews will rally to the plan, because lasting peace will finally be within reach.

Below the fold is a list of salient issues related to this approach prepared by Wright (reprinted with permission of the author):

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React Like It’s 1805

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by Eric Martin One of the fortunate byproducts of the most recent wave of WikiLeaks revelations was that I came across Aaron Bady's thought-provoking blog – this due to the fact that a few of his eloquent examinations of the WikiLeaks mission were widely cited. In this post, Bady discusses the normalization of the war footing that took … Read more

All Your Tax Cuts Are Belong to Us

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by Eric Martin This post from Economist Mom about the current dominance of pro-tax cut ideology raises several important points about the dearth of sensible tax policy debate in Washington, not the least of which has to do with the collective inability to grasp the nuances of marginal tax rates.  In particular, she points out … Read more

Containment 2.0 vs. A Thousand Cuts

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by Eric Martin Daveed Gartenstein Ross has written an insightful piece outlining the latest trend in al-Qaeda's ever-evolving choice of tactics in its economic war against the United States and other Western powers: Two Nokia phones, $150 each, two HP printers, $300 each, plus shipping, transportation and other miscellaneous expenses add up to a total bill … Read more

You Say I’ve Got a Different Face

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by Eric Martin If there was any one incident that could serve as a microcosm of our increasingly muddled, aimless and confused mission in Afghanistan, this would deserve serious consideration:  For months, the secret talks unfolding between Taliban and Afghan leaders to end the war appeared to be showing promise, if only because of the appearance of a certain insurgent leader at … Read more

Trade Your Heroes for Ghosts

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by Eric Martin In what should have been heralded as a dramatic triumph for our criminal justice system and our laudable dedication to the rule of law, Ahmed Ghailani (who was involved in the embassy bombings in Africa in the late 1990s) was convicted and will likely serve life in prison (he faces a minimum of 20 … Read more

The Softest Bullet Ever Shot

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by Eric Martin The numbers from the Simpson-Bowles commission (as discussed by russell below) have been crunched by the expert, and the results have caused at least one prominent supporter, Jonathan Chait, to jump ship.  The reasons are simple: The wonks have finally gone through the debt commission's plan, and the findings are… not so … Read more

This Makes Sense How?

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by Eric Martin Jackson Diehl discusses some of the implications for US foreign policy that resulted from the GOP's recent gains in Congress: Rubio, the son of refugees from Cuba, promised in his moving victory speech never to forget the exile community he comes from. That probably means that any pro-Castro measure is going to need … Read more

No Cars Go

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by Eric Martin These 2010 midterm elections were going to be difficult for Democrats under just about any circumstances: the typical swing of the pendulum, as well as some improbable Dem victories in 2008, meant that the GOP was poised to make big gains in the House and, less so, the Senate.  Add to that, lingering high unemployment … Read more

Happy Halloween!

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One year old you are, as cute in a Yoda costume you will not look.  He was actually kind of smitten by the little bumble bee to his left (not that you can tell by his expression).  And she with him. This is after he laid a wet one on her. Looks like she wants … Read more

Peace Through Strength?: The Problem with Fighting Your Way to the Negotiating Table

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by Eric Martin

In March of 2009, when the Obama administration was conducting a strategic review to determine the way forward in Afghanistan, the primary tension was between engaging in a long term, multi-decade COIN campaign, or beginning the disengagement and reconciliation process – which would, itself, take several years to play out.

Ultimately, Obama opted for an amalgamation of the two: increasing troop levels again (on top of an earlier increase), giving General Stanley McChrystal free reign to implement COIN tactics, but also setting an aspirational timeline for the commencement of withdrawal, and emphasizing the fact that the mission was not open-ended.

One read of the Obama administration's approach was that the surge of troops, and uptick in operations, was meant to shift momentum, and pressure the Taliban to seek reconciliation on terms more favorable to the coalition and Afghan government – to tilt the battlefield in our favor so that the Taliban were not negotiating from a position of strength (or refusing to negotiate altogether).

Although preferable to engaging in an extended COIN campaign, there have been numerous problems with this hybrid approach (more on those below), and the early results are not encouraging.  Anand Gopal reports:



The US’ initial strategy was to talk and shoot—step up raids and targeted killings against insurgent commanders, while pressuring (or enticing) them to quit the fight. While officials spoke often about reconciliation, their terms—abandon the armed opposition and recognize the Afghan government and constitution—were those of surrender, the type a victor imposes on the vanquished. Talks with senior leaders (except when discussing a possible surrender) were strictly ruled out, and as recently as this summer the US was placing insurgent leaders known to have communicated with the Kabul government on terror black lists. Under the US plan, a more broad-based reconciliation process, involving the Taleban as a whole, as well as other sectors of society, would have to wait until the US military could recapture momentum on the battlefield.

But ten months into the new US approach to Afghanistan, shifting momentum has not come. Instead, 2010 is the bloodiest year on record for this war, with insurgent-initiated attacks through the first half of this year up by 60 per cent compared to last year, according to one tally; the Taleban have been able to replace commanders as quickly as they are killed; the reach of the insurgency and the area under their control is at its height; and showcase offensives meant to mark progress, like Marja, have failed.

One of the problems with this strategy is the fact that an increase in military activity (kinetic operations) can create more enemies in the long run through the inevitable killing of innocent civilians and non-combatants.  As Matt Waldman explains in a thoughtful report based on interviews with Taliban/insurgent leaders:

Interviews suggest that the longer the conflict has gone on, the greater the significance and prevalence of this motivation [retaliation against coalition forces for military aggression]. One southern commander explained how an attack by foreign forces incited him to fight:

I am a landowner and was working on the land. I was not a Talib. But some years ago American special forces came and entered my home without my permission at night and killed my two sons, my father, and two uncles without any reason. Another time they did the same thing in another village in my district. When I saw their acts and knew they came only to kill us, not to help, I started fighting against them. They forced me to fight them and now I will continue to fight them so long as they are in Afghanistan.14

Another commander argued that “if international forces keep bombing and killing civilians not only the Taliban but also all the rest of the nation will fight them.”

In addition to swelling the ranks of insurgents through imprecise military action, intensifying the conflict serves to breed mistrust between the various factions that will, eventually, be expected to cease fighting, disarm and broach a peace agreement.  Waldman again:

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We’re Number One! (of Many)

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by Eric Martin On Saturday, the New York Times reported that Iran has been providing cash to certain high ranking Karzai administration officials.  This should be a rather unsurprising revelation and, if anything, a welcomed one: Afghanistan and Iran share a common border, and Iran has legitimate interests in Afghanistan (considering Iran's proximity, it would be … Read more

Happy Birthday Baby Blogging

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by Eric Martin Today, my son turns 1.  Here's something that I wrote back when he was barely a few weeks old, but didn't have the inkling/courage to publish.  "My son." Such a foreign and unfamiliar phrase to have pass my lips, and yet it has now entered my everyday lexicon. His birth has changed what was … Read more

If All You Ask Is a Hammer…

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by Eric Martin One of the maladies plaguing US foreign policy creation is the over-reliance on, and undue deference shown to, the military when shaping that policy.  A simple glance at the respective budgets of the Departments of Defense and State is, at least, an indication of the clout wielded by each (not a perfect apples to apples … Read more

Corporate Ennui

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by Eric Martin Why tax cuts for businesses is particularly ill-suited for stimulating the economy as it stands: For months, companies have been sitting on the sidelines with record piles of cash, too nervous to spend. Now they're starting to deploy some of that money – not to hire workers or build factories, but to prop … Read more

Robber Baron Redux: Financial Reform Edition

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by Eric Martin You get what you pay for: A full 90 members of Congress who voted to bailout Wall Street in 2008 failed to support financial reform reining in the banks that drove our economy off a cliff. But when you examine campaign contribution data, it's really no surprise that these particular lawmakers voted … Read more

I Change Shapes Just to Hide in this Place

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by Eric Martin Spencer Ackerman has been doing yeoman's work uncovering the ways by which Blackwater – despite its horrific record of law-breaking and wrongdoing – is continuing to secure significant portions of multi-billion dollar government contracts (see also): Never mind the dead civilians. Forget about the stolen guns. Get over the murder arrests, the … Read more

Robber Baron Redux: Health Care Reform Edition

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by Eric Martin Apparently, the health insurance industry has its knives out in anticipation of gutting the Affordable Care Act, and you'll never guess which Party it intends to anoint as butchers by proxy: The insurance industry, attracted by the prospect of millions of new customers as a result of the coverage mandate, initially backed … Read more

Robber Baron Redux

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by Eric Martin Apparently, Fox News' parent Corp. wasn't done giving to Republican Party causes/organizations: Ben Smith reports that Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, after having donated $1 million to the Republican Governors Association, has also donated to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a pro-Republican business lobby. Yeah, Obama sure was out of bounds to suggest … Read more