Uhh, Francis, Any Updates in the Works?

As a firm believer that the best analyses of history come well after the fact and that any attempts to describe “history” within the context of the future is best left to Coney Island fortunetellers, I was always slightly annoyed by the arrogance of Francis Fukuyama’s celebrated prognostications in his 1992 auto-back-slapping rant “The End of History and the Last Man.” The fact that Western leaders rushed to praise Francis (essentially for praising them) and then took his book as license to carry on carrying on without concern for how the subtlties can come back to bite one in the ass was also annoying. Nothing’s ever that simple.

Oh, he left himself some wiggle room with predictions of minor fluctuations, but here, 12 years later, he might do well to revise a chapter or two given that:

A widely noted United Nations survey of 19,000 Latin Americans in 18 countries in April produced a startling result: a majority would choose a dictator over an elected leader if that provided economic benefits.

[…]

The United Nations report, also drawn from interviews with current and former presidents, political analysts and cultural and economic figures, showed that 56 percent of those asked said economic progress was more important than democracy.

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The Clinton NK Plan; Take Two

Well, their tough-stance approach yielded squat, so the Bush WH is now going to try a slightly souped-up version of the old Clinton plan to get North Korea to stop making nukes.

Old Clinton Plan

Under the Agreed Framework, North Korea agreed to halt activities at its plutonium producing nuclear reactors in Pyongyang in exchange for a relaxation of economic sanctions, a gradual move toward normalization of diplomatic relations, fuel oil deliveries, and construction of a light-water reactor to replace the graphite-moderated reactor shut down at Pyongyang. Plutonium from light water reactors is harder to use for nuclear weapons than the plutonium procured by graphite-moderated reactors. IAEA inspectors monitored North Korea’s compliance. Upon completion of the light-water reactors, originally scheduled for 2003 but subsequently indefinitely delayed, North Korea was to dismantle its graphite reactors and ship its 8,000 remaining fuel rods out of the country.

New Bush Plan

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Silly CINO Spinning

The spin contortions the CPA’s going through to make it look like Iraq will have “full sovereignty” after June 30 are worthy of a surrealistic performance art piece (think Riviera in Neuromancer). This time it’s in the form of some CINO nonsense (Custody in Name Only): The United States will hand legal custody of Saddam … Read more

The Double-Standard of the William Krar Case

Krugman’s been on Ashcroft’s case recently. First he questioned the timing of his press conferences and how the announcement of the arrest of a terrorist in the heartland just so happens to deflect attention from some embarrassment for the Administration again and again. Today, Paul’s spouting off about the William Krar double-standard: In April 2003, … Read more

The Old Gray Lady Takes the Gloves Off

The battle raging between the Editors of The New York Times and the Bush White House has just exploded into a no-holds-barred brawl. In Thursday’s lead editorial about the 9/11 commission’s conclusion that Iraq was in no way connected to the 9/11 attacks, the Times concluded that there was never any evidence of a link … Read more

Hating the Other

There’s one thing I know. People learn how to hate those different from them: the other. I know this because my parents did an exemplary job of raising me without prejudice. It wasn’t until I reached high school that I first heard many of the stereotypes most kids my age had accepted as truths about different ethnic or racial groups. They’d tell a joke, and I wouldn’t get it because it relied on a shared understanding that all the people within this group were cheap or all the people within that group were stupid, or whatever.

I was shocked to hear an African American teacher I had explain some of the stereotypes she had to live with. “Where do they get that stuff?” I thought. Slowly I realized, because I had not been, that other people were deliberately taught these things. I had certainly met plenty of African Americans, or Greeks, or Scottish, or Polish, etc, but I didn’t associate their race or ethnicity with a particular set of personality traits or habits, because no one had taught me to do so. I accepted each person as a blank slate—someone who would reveal their character to me through their actions.

Much later I realized my parents do associate certain traits/habits to people within different groups. They are just as prejudiced as the average person in our hometown. I was surprised to learn this, but actually very impressed that they had been so careful about not passing those prejudices along to their children.

I thought about this while reading an op-ed piece in The New York Times by Waleed Ziad:

How the Holy Warriors Learned to Hate

I’ve gone rounds and round with folks who want to discuss the War on Terror as a religious war. I’ve been insisting all the while that we’re dealing not with a clash of civilizations or ideologies, but rather a clash of social classes and a thirst for power.

In as much as this involves Afghanistan and Pakistan, Waleed Ziad agrees:

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“Because I Could”

I have often contrasted how elated I felt the day Bill Clinton was elected (dancing the night away at the Hilton in DC) with the hit-by-a-truck shock of watching him admit that he had lied to the nation about the Lewinski affair. I literally was nearly sick at that moment and still resent him for … Read more

The Stepford Vice President

So here’s a theory. Dick Cheney is actually a robot. Back in the early days of the Bush Administration, when he underwent “heart” surgery, he was actually Stepfordized. Admittedly, this theory has a few loose ends (mostly in that he’s certainly not any better looking now), but at least it offers a feasible explanation for his insistence that Hussein had ties to al Qaida (i.e, there’s a fatal error or short-circuit in his data access update loop or something like that).

From Marshall’s Gaggle report:

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Fallujah as Favela

Maybe I haven’t been called a “lefty moonbat” enough recently, but I’m going to throw this out there before I forget why it seemed like such a good idea in the middle of the night last night.

On the DVD for “City of God” is a documentary film about the drug wars in Rio De Janeiro titled “News From A Personal War.” Interviews with police, drug dealers, prisoners, and favela (slum) dwellers paint as bleak a picture of urban violence as I’ve ever seen. This film is from 1997, so some of the circumstances may have changed…anyone knowing that to be the case, please don’t be shy about sharing.

In the documentary, the former police chief of Rio is interviewed extensively and (probably because he was just about to take another job when interviewed) offers some stunningly frank assessments of why his force is unable to make a dent in the ongoing war. Essentially, the problem boils down to easy access to guns. He draws a chilling parallel between the US government and its desire to close down the Columbian drug manufacturing plants from which deadly products find ways, despite supposedly earnest efforts, through customs and onto American streets and the US and European gun manufacturing plants from which deadly products find ways, despite supposedly earnest efforts, through customs and onto Brazilian streets.

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Like Dogs

Worried that she is being scapegoated for the torture of prisoners in Abu Ghraib, Brig Gen Janis Karpinski is speaking out: Gen Karpinski said military intelligence took over part of the Abu Ghraib jail to “Gitmoize” their interrogations – make them more like what was happening in the US detention camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, … Read more

Rauch on Virginia’s Marriage Affirmation Act

Via Sullivan ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Virginia’s Marriage Affirmation Act goes into effect July 1. Although its supporters deny this is what they had in mind, the law could interfere with gay people’s right to make contracts with each other such as “wills, medical directives, powers of attorney, child custody and property arrangements, even perhaps joint bank accounts.” … Read more

First Thing We Do, Let’s Not Treat All the Lawyers

I know the costs of malpractice insurance are driving doctors to distraction, but… A doctor’s proposal asking the American Medical Association to endorse refusing care to attorneys involved in medical malpractice cases drew an angry response from colleagues Sunday at the annual meeting of the nation’s largest physicians group. Many doctors stood up to denounce … Read more

Premature Again…

They just can’t wait to tack up those “Mission Accomplished” banners, this White House… Via Barry at Bloggy.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~` April 29, 2004, the Bush Administration released a report called “Patterns of Global Terrorism” which indicated that the number of annual terrorist attacks had dropped. And not only dropped, but dropped to its lowest level in … Read more

Getting It in Writing

The Wall Street Journal has offered up free portions of the “Working Group Report on Detainee Interrogations in the Global War on Terrorism: Assessment of Legal, Historical, Policy, and Operational Considerations” (or in other words, the legal boundaries of “successful interrogations” of “[unlawful] enemy combatants”).

It’s 49 pages long, and the best bits have been reported in the press, but this part jumped out at me:

(U) Any effort by Congress to regulate the interrogation of unlawful combatants would violate the Constitution’s sole vesting of the Comander-in-Chief authority in the President. There can be little doubt that intelligence operations, such as the detention and interrogation of enemy combatants and leaders, are both necessary and proper for the effective conduct of a military campaign. Indeed, such operations may be of more importance in a war with an international terrorist organization than one with conventional armed forces of a nation-state, due to the former’s emphasis on secret operations and surprise attacks against civilians. It may be the case that only successful interrogations can provide the information necessary to prevent the success of covert terrorist attacks upon the United Sates and its citizens. Congress can no more interfere with the President’s conduct of the interroration of enemy combatants than it can dictate strategy or tactical decision on the battlefiled. Just as statues that order the President to conduct warfare in a certain manner or for specific goals would be unconstitutional, so too are laws that seek to prevent the President from gaining the intelligence he believes necessary to prevent attacks upon the United States.

(U)As this authority is inherent in the President, exercise of it by subordinates would be best if it can be shown to have been derived from the President’s authority through Presidential directive or other writing.

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Selling Out the Kurds

Samuel Johnson noted that “Life cannot subsist in society but by reciprocal concessions.”

Iraq’s Kurdish leaders seem to understand that, and, despite being so much closer to having the pieces in place to make democracy work than the rest of the country (and plenty o’ oil), they continue to compromise toward a unified, democratic Iraq, including “concessions in the interim Constitution over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk [and] acceptance of a new government with no Kurds in top positions.”

But while the US and other nations of the UN Security Council congratulate themseleves on their unanimous vote yesterday, the concession it took to get there may just be the one the Kurds are unwilling to make.

As William Safire notes in his column today:

In his eagerness for the approval of the Shiite religious leader — and driven by desperation to get yesterday’s unanimous U.N. resolution in time for the G-8 meeting — President Bush may be double-crossing the Kurds, our most loyal friends in Iraq.

[…]

In February, the Iraqi Governing Council, which included all religious and ethnic groups, hammered out its only memorable work: a Transitional Administrative Law, which laid the groundwork for a constitution to be adopted later by elected officials in a sovereign state. Most important for Kurds, who have long been oppressed by an Arab majority, it established minority rights within a federal state — the essence of a stable democracy.

But as the U.N. resolution supporting that state was nearing completion, the Shiite grand ayatollah, Ali al-Sistani, suddenly intervened. He denounced the agreed-upon law as “legislated by an unelected council in the shadow of occupation.” He decreed that mentioning it in the U.N. resolution would be “a harbinger of grave consequences.”

The U.S. promptly caved. Stunned Kurds protested in a letter to President Bush that “the people of Kurdistan will no longer accept second-class citizenship in Iraq.” If the law guaranteeing minority rights was abrogated, Kurds would “have no choice but to refrain from participating in the central government, not to take part in the national elections, and to bar representatives of the central government from Kurdistan.”

Now there’s one big deterence to the Kurds forming their own government, and that’s Turkey’s promise to smash it to bits if they do. However, the Kurds may just be willing to risk that, and they may just be stronger than anyone thinks they are. Consider the following from Bartle Breese Bull’s opinion piece in the Times today:

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Sudan and the Capacity for More Tragedy

I was already feeling guilty about not blogging about Sudan (The Times Nicholas Kristof has been covering it well, but you gotta pay for most of these now) when Gary Farber directed me to his excellent series of posts about the tragic events happening there (and don’t worry Gary, you didn’t make me feel more guilty…in fact, you helped me see something parallel but also important):

From Gary’s April 26, 2004 post

For 14 months, the government has fought a merciless war against rebels in the remote Darfur region. Sudanese warplanes and the feared Arab militiamen known as the janjaweed, who attack on horseback, have depopulated much of an area larger than California, driving roughly 1 million villagers into a few spots like Mornay. In January the town had some 2,000 inhabitants; by March there were 80,000. Every village within 30 miles has been leveled, says Coralie Lechelle, a nurse with the relief group Medecins sans Frontieres. Refugees are stuck there, she says: “In fact, it is a prison.”

Now it certainly does me no credit to admit that I skim the Kristof updates on the situation in Sudan when they come along, but then actually make a conscious decision to not post about them. And not only has that tugged hard at my conscience, making me question my values, my latent racism, my laziness, it’s also led me to dream up rationales like “I only have the capacity for so much empathy” or, worse, “when it gets really bad, then I’ll start paying attention or get involved.”

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The Turing Police

It’s a bit ironic, really, that Gibson chose Alan Turing as the inspiration for his futuristic police force: Several of the best scenes in [Neuromancer] show the Turing police in action, as they carry out their task of making sure any AIs are firmly under human control. Cruel ideas about controlling humans led to Turing’s … Read more

Father Joe

So there we were at home, an Evangelical Christian and a moderate Muslim, watching PBS and they had this story about a Catholic priest working in a Bangkok slum populated primarily by Buddhists, and, well, we were deeply moved by his story: PHIL JONES: Children singing the national anthem of Thailand — it’s how their … Read more

D-Day Open Thread

What if D-Day had failed? Dr. David Stafford, of the Centre for World War Two Studies at Edinburgh University considers an alternative history: D-Day success was no sure thing and failure would have meant military and political catastrophe. No-one knew this better than the Supreme Allied Commander, General Dwight D Eisenhower. On the night of … Read more

Just How Bad Is US Intelligence?

Digging around in the basement to find and dust off…ahhh, here it is: Despite what some have suggested, we received no intelligence that terrorists were preparing to attack the homeland using airplanes as missiles, though some analysts speculated that terrorists might hijack planes to try and free US-held terrorists. —Dr. Rice, March 22, 2004, Op-ed … Read more

IRR Callup Rumors

ObWi Reader Angela asked a question in the earlier thread about potential widespread IRR callups that deserves its own post. Would anyone who knows the answers, please share: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Does anyone know what ‘significant portions’ of the IRR means? My husband is in the IRR and we have heard so much crap in the last … Read more

Art, Terror, and an Epidemic of Idiocy

The FBI clearly overreacted. They were doing their job, and no one should fault them for that, but when it became apparent that they were wrong, they should have simply said so, apologized, and moved on. But they can’t seem to do that. So what do they do instead? Apparently, S.O.P. in such cases is to make matters worse.

On May 11, State University of New York at Buffalo professor and artist Steve Kurtz awoke to find his wife of 20 years, Hope (a fellow artist), had died in her sleep. He called 911 and what had began as a tragic day became surreally frightenting.

Both of the Kurtz’s belonged to a cutting-edge artist collective known as Critical Art Ensemble (CAE), which focusses on artwork designed to educate the public about the politics of biotechnology. Most, if not all, of the collective members are respected university professors. You can get a sense of their work from their book titles: (Molecular Invasion; Electronic Civil Disobedience & Other Unpopular Ideas; The Electronic Disturbance; and Digital Resistance: Explorations in Tactical Media).

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Never has so much been asked of so few

As Tacitus wrote last Friday, there are rumors that the DoD would begin activating significant portions of the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) to meet our needs for more troops. As Tacitus pointed out “an IRR call-up is supposed to be an exceptional event,” such as the Chinese invading Oregon. In today’s New York Times, Andrew … Read more

Progress

I was just thinking the other day about how world events have continued to move faster than we expect them to over the past half century. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the relatively peaceful end of the Soviet Union, and now, ahead of schedule, an interim government is sworn in in Iraq, including the … Read more

Fun with Statistics

UPDATE: Constant Readers Phil and Slartibartfast took all the fun out of this by revealing that this data has (have?) been thoroughly debunked (see here and here), thus rendering this little more than petty partisan wishful thinking. Feel free to consider this an open thread then in which to get out any snarky comments you’ve been holding back (bearing in mind the posting rules).

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I’ll worry about it the day after tomorrow

It was a drizzly Memorial Day here in New York, so the movie theaters were full of folks who might have otherwise had a picnic or gone to the beach. My friends and I treated ourselves to the scientifically challenged, propaganda-laden disaster flick, “The Day After Tomorrow” (what else we gonna talk about as we … Read more

Art Irritates Life

Hat Tip to Constant Reader Dutchmarbel for this item ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Lori Haigh, a San Francisco gallerist, was attacked by an as-yet-unidentified assailant who apparently objected to a painting she was exhibiting. Judging by the published photo of her, the attack was pretty brutal. The black eye Haigh received was just the latest in a string … Read more

The United States of Sparta

I know that headline may immediately turn off a portion of the readership (“Good God, not another anti-war diatribe, can we just get over it?”). To those folks, I’d ask you read a bit further. It’s not what you think. The Belmont Club’s Wretchard writes a breathtaking thesis on the future direction of war in “The Global Battlefield.” His central argument is “Wars will no longer be fought between armies. They will be fought between societies.” He builds his argument around the ideas that

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If I’m reading between the lines correctly…

…we may soon see a resignation by U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi (or at least some serious squawking). In a secret session today, the Iraqi Governing Council unanimously nominated Iyad Allawi (a current Governing Council member) as the Prime Minister for the Transitional Government beginning June 30. This despite Brahimi’s expressed belief that no current GC … Read more

Budget Cuts Are Coming

There’s been a bunch of chatter recently about John McCain’s question about the War on Terror: ‘Where’s the sacrifice?’

Well, it’s coming folks. If Bush is re-elected, there’s good reason to suspect that we will see significant budget cuts in 2006 in “virtually all agencies in charge of domestic programs, including education, homeland security and others that the president backed in this campaign year.”

Administration officials had dismissed the significance of the proposed cuts when they surfaced in February as part of an internal White House budget office computer printout. At the time, officials said the cuts were based on a formula and did not accurately reflect administration policy. But a May 19 White House budget memorandum obtained by The Washington Post said that agencies should assume the spending levels in that printout when they prepare their fiscal 2006 budgets this summer.

Now nothing’s chiseled in stone yet (least of all that Bush will be in office then):

J.T. Young, a spokesman for the White House Office of Management and Budget, said the memo, titled “Planning Guidance for the FY 2006 Budget,” is a routine “process document” to help agency officials begin establishing budget procedures for 2006. In no way should it be interpreted as a final policy decision, or even a planning document, he said.

But, there are folks on both sides of the political aisle suggesting these cuts would happen should Bush win (i.e., if Kerry doesn’t win and raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans):

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Fafnir Exclusive

Whatever you do, don’t miss this exclusive interview with Donald Rumsfeld by Fafnir: A small sample: [Fafnir]: Now Secretary Rumsfeld, there are a lot of people criticizing your handling of the war over things like the undermanning of the military, the not preparing for reconstruction, the letting crazy militias run whole cities. What is your … Read more