In responses to this post (where, among other things, I mentioned in passing to not expect a nonbrokered convention and to expect horsetrading) I was asked by reader praktile,
Moe, what kind of horse trading do you think would happen? Do you have any insight as to how those behind-the-scenes discussions happen?
Fair questions, both of them.
We’ll go with the second one first: the discussions can happen anywhere. The important thing about them is that they be quiet ones; while there’s nothing especially unethical about two candidates doing contingency planning, a bored and skilled reporter can turn just about anything into a scandal. It’ll also be a bit more speculative to start: after all, we’ve not seen the results of a single vote yet. As to what kind of horse trading?
Short answer: it depends. Yeah, big help there.
Longer answer: it depends on how important the combination of factors is. We’ve got a pool of anywhere from three to five ‘serious’ candidates for any given state, coupled with that 15% proportional rule. The last time circumstances were similar (including the proportional rule) was during the 1992 election; Clinton went on to get the nomination and win the election, but whoever faces this Bush is not going to have the luxury of dealing with a President who’s just dealt with a serious primary challenger.
Reader Catsy made some fair criticisms of the methodology of the post (I called it Bad Analysis of NH Numbers for a reason), but I think that this statement:
Keep in mind that the longer the individual candidates stay in, the more establishment pressure there is going to be on the lower-polling candidates to drop out and throw their weight behind the front-runner, and the more momentum the front-runner is going to gain.
– is more a recognition of the ways things usually are than a description of how things will undoubtedly be this time around. It’s still safe to bet that there’ll be one main candidate by the convention, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the avenue to influence offered by the 15% cutoff will keep those lucky enough to enjoy it formally in the race. Sharpton, if nobody else: he has an agenda, and those delegates are why he’s here in the first place, so he won’t leave and the establishment won’t dare push him too hard. But if the marginal candidates stay in as long as they’re collecting delegates, then the momentum Catsy’s calling for may be blunted.
If that happens… hmm. Well, aside from the obvious things to trade for delegates (VP slot, Cabinet positions, policy endorsements), one thing that Howard Dean at least might need very badly is for the luxury of not having to go to the DLC and negotiating for their superdelegates. If he was close, the existing Democratic establishment would probably give them to him – but they’ll jack up the price without a qualm (at the very least, Terry keeps his job and Dean dances a little for their amusement). What’s pride worth?
However, again, I’m essentially guessing at this point and I ain’t a professional anyway. We’ll know more after some votes come in.