People have been asking in the wake of Iowa whether Dean’s support, even among his hard core fans, will simply evaporate. Garance Franke-Ruta seems to think it will. (S/he also seems to think that “one of the interesting things about the rise of the blogs is that you can plug directly into the collective mind of a group,” which I would dispute. Do people really think the blog comments are representative of the campaign? Good Lord, no wonder they think Dean supporters are all insane. Once upon a time, yes, but it’s trolled to death and simply unwieldy and most folks do other stuff with their time. There’s the occasional useful thread, but…)
Anyway, despite my skepticism of using randomly selected blog comments as proof of anything, I had the same feeling. But then I was reading this story about the retooled Dean campaign, and this caught my eye: “Late Wednesday night his aides noted that despite the disparaging publicity from the loss in Iowa and his exuberant postcaucus performance, Dr. Dean had raised $590,000 in contributions since Monday.”
In comparison, the victorious Kerry “racked up a total of $500,000 in the 39 hours after the caucuses” (link). Edwards has raised at least $250,000.
I’m not sure all those figures are from the same time of day. But it appears that after the single worst day of Dean campaign, and the single best day of Kerry’s and Edwards’–he’s still raising more money than they are. I don’t know whether you want to call this “touching loyalty”, “blind faith”, “calm resolve”, or “quiet desperation”, but most of Dean’s strongest supporters don’t seem to have gone anywhere.
Tomorrow night will be the first debate of the campaign that really matters. Accordingly, if anyone would like to play a prank on Sharpton, Kucinich, Lieberman, and all LaRouche supporters in the state, that leaves them er, indisposed–you will have my eternal gratitude. (My suggestion would be to strand them in a lean-to in the White Mountains and make a reality show about it, but I’m not picky.)
Kevin Drum’s got a poll up on New Hampshire voters:
http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003095.html
Of course, a poll’s just a poll. And there’s still, politically-speaking, a lot of time left.
I will not believe a poll until it is released by my trusted friend Zogby, who is currently indisposed and lying in boxer shorts under fifty pounds of beer, pot brownies and cantaloupes. “Get up Zogby!” I tell him urgently. “The world needs you!” “Ho ho,” he says gleefully. “I call New Hampshire for Al Sharpton.” Oh Zogby! How will we ever get you cleaned up in time to deliver toys for all the pundits come Hampshire Eve!
The one on Drum’s page was by the Boston Hrelad–all the spelling errors of the Grauniad, all the integrity of the NY Post. So I can hope they don’t know what they’re talking about….anyway, I’m still pessimistic but at least the Dean supporters are made of stronger stuff than folks reading blog comments suppose.
(Now, I wish there was some way of making a difference other than by donating money, since the get-out-the-vote operation seems to be far from foolproof. But that’s a whole ‘nother problem.)
Speaking of beer, it could have been a lot worse for Zogby. Or better, depending on your fantasies.
all the spelling errors of the Grauniad
So maybe they misspelled ‘Dean’ as ‘Kerry’?
😉
Here’s the Trippi on the Fearsome Yawp Of Doom (DOOM!):
The acknowledgement of just how bad the Iowa loss was is disarming….que sera sera.
But, maybe Dean kicks butt in tonight’s debate, and regains the big mo in New Hampshire. I’m unconvinced it’s over for Dean. If he comes in 3rd in NH, then I might say its over.
If he comes in 2nd, I honestly believe the damage of Iowa is mitigated.