So, according to this Newsweek poll (via Tac) he’s not only far ahead of the Democratic pack, but polling ahead of Bush*… and according to Zogby (via Kos) Dean’s coming back, fast, in New Hampshire. Newsweek has Edwards coming in second; from Zogby’s point of view, he’s drifting. And, of course, the NH results are going to probably affect national results in much the same way that the IA ones did – but we have no idea how.
God, I hate polls.
Moe
*Tac’s rather gloomy about it all; I feel his pain and worry but do not particularly share in either. Still, the Newsweek poll is a good bit of news for the Democrats, at a time where they could certainly use it. And I generally loathe “Yes, but…”s when other people do it, so I won’t here.
I don’t think recent polls are terribly important for two reasons, first Kerry has been painted as a “winner” in the media at large and the fickle mushheads in the electorate want to back a winner. Let’s see what happens to his numbers after he’s gone through a cycle of set backs and recoveries.
As far as his polling ahead of Bush, BFD. Bush isn’t going to attack Kerry in any substantial way, unless and until he gets the nomination sewn up. Best thing for Bush to do is to stay out of sight and relatively low key, and let the Democrats eat each other for a few more months. Letting Dean or Clark do Bush’s dirty work should make each of the Dems look worse with reflecting badly on the President.
In short, the only poll that truly matters is in November. Unless the numbers from this poll become an undeniable trend, I’m surprised by the gloom that Tac and others are showing.