I thought I’d give my own take on who’s going to win each division and go on to the World Series this year. Yes, even though Spring Training hasn’t even started yet. After all, isn’t bloviation a big chunk of the fun of baseball?
I’ll go through each division and say a little something about each team. If you want extensive comments, you’ll have to look somewhere else. Fortunately, that won’t be hard, as just about everyone in the baseball community has been talking at length about each team.
AL East
Boston — with Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke added to the pitching, and a full season of David Ortiz, it’s hard to not pick the Red Sox.
New York — As always, when they think they need help, they go get it. Sheffield, Lofton, Vazquez, Brown, and Lieber? Wow.
Baltimore — Not this year, much as I hate to admit it. No pitching to speak of (although there is some promise), but the offense looks much better. I’m going to enjoy seeing Tejada, Lopez, Gibbons, and Palmeiro knocking balls onto Eutaw Street.
Toronto — Not yet, but check back next year. I like their pitching, and the lineup is getting better. They need another slugger, though.
Tampa Bay — Um. Well, Lou Piniella worked wonders in Seattle, so maybe it’ll happen again here.
My pick — Boston over New York by two games.
AL Central
Minnesota — Chaos in the bullpen, and a rookie catcher. Ouch.
Chicago — Chaos everywhere, with some hope for the future. Things are going to be tough on the South Side for a while.
Kansas City — If Sweeney and Igor stay healthy, and they get a solid year from Anderson, Affeldt, and Appier, then things could go well. Otherwise… it could get ugly.
Cleveland — A lot of new faces, and I think many of them are overrated. Still, how can you not love a team with a guy named “Coco Crisp”?
Detroit — Oh, Pudge. Didn’t the A-Rod thing teach you about going for the money with a lousy team? The offense will be better, and the pitching… well, it’d be hard to be worse than last year. They’ll improve, but not enough to matter.
My pick — Kansas City over Minnesota by four games.
AL West
Anaheim — Guess last year’s “stand pat” strategy didn’t work out so good, huh? With Colon and Bad Vlad here, they’re back in the running.
Oakland — Maybe Arthur Rhodes can close, and maybe Bobby Crosby can play in the bigs, and maybe Redman will continue to do well, and maybe Karros and Durazo will platoon well, and maybe… Get the picture?
Seattle — I think Aurilia wasn’t the answer at SS, and the rotation is dicey. Still you gotta love a team with a pitcher named J. J. Putz!
Texas — An object lesson in bad contracts screwing up a team for years and years. Still no pitching, and no hope until they get some.
My pick — Anaheim over Oakland by one game
NL East
Atlanta — Can Leo Mazzone and Bobby Cox work the magic again with these guys? Maybe. Thomson’s not Maddux, by any means, but he didn’t look too bad in the last half of 2003. The offense needs some help, though. J. D. Drew? Buy stock in medical supply companies.
Philadelphia — Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell ought to help shore up the bullpen, and if Pat the Bat ever gets hot, look out. I think Bowa is doomed if they don’t start strong.
New York — I’ve lived for taunting the Mets for years (sorry, Katherine), and they’re still going to be bad this year. Not as bad as last year, and the defense ought to improve dramatically with Matsui and Cameron, but still not good.
Montreal — This is painful to watch. Just suck it up, give Angelos the $150 million, and move ’em to DC. I want NL ball close to my house, anyway. Day and Armas might be decent pitchers, and Everett and Wilkerson can hit, but this is getting embarrassing.
Florida — They’re actually fun to watch, and the young pitching shows a lot of promise. I thought they were going to implode last season and have another fire sale, but they instead went all the way. I think they’ll surprise a lot of people, and Mike Lowell will continue to be the best slugger nobody’s ever heard of.
My pick — much as it hurts me to say this, Philadelphia over Atlanta/Florida by two games. I think this division will rival the AL East for “most fun to watch”, though.
NL Central
Chicago — Gotta love the pitching and the beer. If they bring back Maddux… wow. I’m looking forward to seeing an entire year of Corey Patterson, too.
Houston — Roger Clemens in the NL. That’s going to be fun to watch. Pettitte/Clemens/Oswalt/Miller/Redding — one serious rotation.
St. Louis — I think they’re going to surprise some people this year. With Morris and Williams in the rotation, and Pujols and Rolen in the offense, they’ll hang with just about anyone. I’m dubious about the bullpen, though.
Cincinnati — Will Junior be healthy? Who cares? This is just a bad team, and one star isn’t going to help. The days of the Big Red Machine are long gone, and won’t return anytime soon.
Pittsburgh — A beautiful ballpark, and a not-so-beautiful team to go with it. Kendall’s overrated, but Jason Bay, Bobby Hill, and Brian Meadows might not be too bad.
Milwaukee — At least Selig finally is selling the team. Look for Geoff Jenkins to be traded in July to a contender, and for very little else of note to happen here.
My pick — Cubs by three over Houston, five if they get Maddux.
NL West
San Francisco — Well, there’s Superman, and Jason Schmidt, then not much else. Overpaying for mediocre players will do that to you. If they sign Maddux, and Robb Nen can actually pitch, it might go well.
Colorado — I think they may be a surprise. With Helton, Wilson, Burnitz, Walker, and Castilla, they can put runs on the board, and their pitching is improving. They’re still not great, but look at the competition.
Arizona — Last call, folks. The Big Unit is old and tired, and the bills are coming due. Still, Sexson can mash, and getting Alomar for the loose change behind the sofa cushions was a nice move. It’s time for one final run for the money.
Los Angeles — The lineup needs help. Fortunately, they’ve gotten the ownership resolved, and they have the pitching to trade. Odalis Perez is so gone. Look for trades right after spring training, when other teams start realizing how badly they need pitching.
San Diego — The Padres get no respect, but they’re positioned to come from out of nowhere. With Giles, Nevin, Klesko, and Hernandez, there’s some thunder here, and Wells, Eaton, Lawrence, and Peavy make a pretty good rotation. Now that Trevor Hoffman is back, this is going to be a good team.
My pick — San Diego by one game over Colorado.
AL wildcard — New York edges out Minnesota
AL playoffs — 1st round: Anaheim beats New York, Boston beats Kansas City
2nd round: Boston beats Anaheim
NL wildcard — Florida over Colorado
NL playoffs — 1st round: Chicago over Philadelphia, San Diego over Florida
2nd round: Chicago over San Diego
World Series — Boston over Chicago in six games
There you have it — I’m predicting “The Curses” to both end, and a barn-burner of a World Series. Let the mocking begin!
Okay, Boston and Chicago in the World Series suggests you are both delusional and a romantic. Which makes you a baseball fan.
Now, before spc67 contradicts me, allow me to explain why you’ve got the AL East wrong. (Which is no big, sportswriters have been wishful thinking the Sox into first place for each of the last four years, and always for something close to the same reasons.)
The Yankees have a better pitching staff. And, as a Braves fan, you no doubt know how this impacts pennant races. Brown, Vasquez, Mussina, Contreras, and Leiber are better than Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, and Insert Name Here. The lack of a lefty will hurt them, it’s true. But Brown is an upgrade over Clemens (pitched more innings last year, nearly half the ERA, etc.), Vasquez may be one of the best five young pitchers in baseball (Pettitte, god love him, and I know god does, was a little overrated), Mussina is clearly better than Lowe (who is yet to repeat that breakout season), and I’ll take Contreras over Wakefield, if only becuz even Boone can hit a flat knuckleball out of the park. I’ll be brief with the bullpen. The Yankees added two of the best right handed set up men in baseball last year (Gordon and Quantrill). Rivera is still better than Foulke.
As to the hitting? You don’t have to be Bill James to know that players who exceed career numbers usually fall back to earth the following season. Not just usually. How about almost always. Overachieving teams have a way of doing the same (just ask last year’s Angels.) So welcome back, Bill Mueller! Good to see you, Mr. Ortiz! Step right up, Mr. Millar! Meanwhile, the Yankees addressed an obvious need and did so by adding one of the best five hitters in the game.
Oh. And the Red Sox are cursed, Nomar is pissed, and Pedro, the heart and soul of the team, can’t throw more than 100 pitches anymore. And let’s not ignore the import of the latter. They had their man, their savior, on the mound with the season in his bare hand. And he spit the bit.
Arthur Rhodes can close, no question. And while getting Vlad does wonders for the Angels’ offense, moving Erstad to first base does horrors for it. It should be a good race in the West this year, though.
Michael N.,
Welcome. remember, too much baseball isn’t enough!
Harley,
F**K Y**! (I think that’s required to initiate rational discourse between Yankee and Sox fans, don’t you?)
I think the Sox will finish second. Despite the age problems in the Yankee pitching staff, which will lead to injuries, Ortiz and several others are likely to come back to earth this year. Pedro won’t pitch 200 innings and that magical chemistry won’t exist this year. People will have had enough of Manny.
We’ll finish second. But that’s ok. The question will be whose pitching staff is healthy come the playoffs? My guess is Brown and Contreras (who has gotta be 37-8) will both be less than 100%, which gives my Sox a chance.
Wait ’til THIS year!
spc67 —
Right back at ya!!
And you’re right, the Sox are better built for the playoffs, and the health of the respective pitching staffs will tell the tale.
Hey, eager to take a couple spring training swings?
Go to: http://meph.eu.org/
First click puts the ‘ball’ in play. Second click swings the bat.
Now top 517.1
BTW, what’s this “National League” thingie anyway?
Harley, you argue your point eloquently, but you seem to forget one thing: good will always ultimately triumph over evil. And the Yankees are the Ultimate Evil.
Harley,
Brown had a fantastic comeback year, but he’s also 39 with an injury history. He’s not going to be in Dodger Stadium, and the infield defense behind him will be shaky, at best. Sure, Mussina and Vazquez are great, and Contreras and Lieber may show us just what they’re capable of, but I think injuries are going to bite the Yankee rotation hard this year. The bullpen is certainly better than it was, but Rivera is getting more fragile, bringing him to something almost like the realm of mortal men. The Yankee defense will be dicey (Lamb? Soriano? Giambi? Lofton?), and having Bernie Williams clogging up the DH spot won’t help.
I think the Red Sox will have some guys fall off, like Mueller, but I think others are getting to the level that approaches their true talent, like Ortiz and Millar. I’m not nearly as sanguine about the Red Sox rotation being inferior to the Yankees (I’d take Pedro and Schilling over anybody on the Yankee staff), and I must point out that Pedro threw 94, 116, 122, and 115 pitches in his last four meaningful regular-season starts in 2003. While the team chemistry may be off, they also won’t have Grady Little to contend with, either.
Boston and New York are definitely the class of the AL East this year, but I think Boston will edge the Yanks going head-to-head, and they’ll certainly beat them if they meet in the postseason. Couple that with the whole “Ultimate Evil” thing, and Bob’s your uncle.
593.5.
This is the new obsession of my workplace.
And yes, I think this is the year the Braves’ deal with the devil finally expires. Much good it does me – as a Giants fan, I agree that the NL West is absolutely anyone’s game. Should be fun to see what the Padres do with their new park…
Not a big fan of Shurholtz’s (sp) stratagey of “going for the wildcard?”
After 23 years being a Braves fan I want to break things up and restart. How can one describe the feeling of watching the Braves win all season but not want to watch the playoffs because you know they will lose? Last year was the toughest after what I thought was the answer, we would win with hitting. Sigh…the Braves couldn’t match the Cubs pitching. I now live in Chicago…the PAIN (you don’t want to know how many bets I lost, I am sooooo stoopid)
I want to live this season on the edge even if that means the Braves loose the division. I am sick of the Braves strolling into the playoffs. Sell off talent, put the fear of god into everyone. Get a spring back in Cox’s step, maybe have to make a move at the deadline to stir things up. This year I want to be a Red Sox fan, not a “national league Yankee’s” fan.
Then again, who knows if fans (and I use this term loosely) will go to the games if they aren’t in first. They hardley get anyone to go when they are.
WC Hopefull
arc
Sorry man, but the Rocks had no shot, have no shot and will have no shot, ever, ever, ever. I’ve got no special hatred for them, but geez, they can’t win road games.
I like the call on the Pads, but I gotta hope that my Gmen have a shot. Please, please let them have a shot……
Oh yea, and, it seems odd to say this since it’s not my site, but welcome aboard.
I’m hitting Scottsdale in mid-March for Cubs and Dbacks games before Vegas for the first round of the dance.
Injuries biting the rotation and RIvera is only a mortal — the rallying cry of hopeful sportswriters for at least the last three years, maybe longer.
Okay, sooner or later, it will come to pass. I wouldn’t bet on it this year. As for those Pedro pitch counts, the numbers don’t lie. He’s an average pitcher when he tops 100. Heck, just ask Hideki Matsui.
As for the infield defense. Er. I have nothing to say.