Michael Totten has an interesting post where he tries to define our enemies in the probably poorly named ‘War on Terror’. I’ve tackled this topic before (see also here ) and will gladly admit that it is a fuzzy concept–much like the exact parameters of the Cold War. So lets put that aside for a second and reflect on his closing paragraph:
“If Al Qaeda ceases utterly to exist tomorrow, and if everything else in the Middle East is preserved exactly as it is right now, would it really be time to declare victory? I do not think so.”
I think a comprehensive answer to this question would help me understand the point of view of the left. If Al Qaeda was completely gone, could we just pack up from Iraq and leave the Middle East alone? If Al Qaeda had vanished before Iraq was invaded, would we have any major work to do in the Middle East? If so how would we do it?
This isn’t meant as a trick question or anything, I’m really curious what you guys think. But I will note that I’m skeptical about amorphous appeals to ‘alliances’ and ‘world cooperation’.
I will declare victory when an Israeli mother and daughter, dressed in halters and hot pants, may go shopping in a mall in Riyadh.
Does this adequately describe how I see the war?
🙂
What makes you think anyone here’s qualified to offer detailed foreign policy analysis? Oh wait. . did I just ruin the game?
With my various crumbs of personal experience and gleaned information I can bake together some principles that I believe are relevant.
Violence nearly always begets more violence.
Radical international utopianism was the worst trait of the American left, and now the right’s jumped on the wagon whole-hog.
The culture of Middle Eastern Muslims is sick right now. It’s a proud people subjected to what they perceive as daily humiliation. . exacerbated by warmongers who use that lever to drive up hysteria. People wonder why middle class Arabs become terrorists. . on the assumption that only poverty would drive you to suicide. But cultural humiliation can be, and in this case seems to be, worse. Invasion exacerbates that situation. . easily spun into another humiliation suffered at the hands of the West.
Despite all of the socialogical transformations technology hath wrought, change still happens at the geographic edge and at crossroads. Turkey’s in pretty good shape to be the stepping stone into a free, democratic, capitalist Middle East. We should be giving them every bit of attention possible. That’s usually how dominoes work. I’m unaware of any that start in the middle.
Well, now, I’d say that also depends on what you’re defining as ‘al-Qaida’, because it’s a loose network at best.
I think you’re right, though – there wouldn’t be a victory. If ALL terrorists suddenly ceased to exist, then the mindset and conditions that created them would soon create more. There is an hearts and minds mission here too.
The war on terror is like the war on cancer. Excise it with an operation (Afgahanistan) give the patient drugs (occupation of Afghanistan, Homeland security, lean on Pakistan)and change your lifestyle and diet (Iraq, although I cannot truly find an equally irrelevant cancer treatment analogy) and it still returns, metathesizes and kills you. Isolate and eliminate the cause and you have success, treat only the symptoms or outcome and you have health care (peacekeeping) cost explosion.
This is an untenable “if”, but, to go along with it regardless, if Al Queda disappeared, terrorism may go into remission, but it would metasthesize elsewhere as long as the cause is not removed.
If AQ vanished we’d still have our native right-wing terrorists. Maybe you remember, Oklahoma City? Ring any bells?
We would still have the terrorists we’ve supported in South America for the past 40 years. The people who blew up a Cuban airliner and shot missiles into a freighter in a Florida port. You think these chickens won’t come home to roost?
Leave Israel with their self-appointed task of running a little terrorist factory and there will never be any shortage.
Let 12,000 Russian nukes lie around in an impoverished country and one might eventually make its way to the ‘free market’.
And- who knew?- there are people out there who are just plain nuts. Make sure they can’t get psychiatric treatment, make sure they don’t have access to a court for the redress of a legitimate grievance, and eventually one of them might do something crazy.
Of course, where I live, the terrorist we fear the most is the driver who crosses the centerline.
Replying as a Leftist- terror can’t vanish until we stop employing it. We built AQ in an effort to attack the Soviet Union. Israel openly attempts to terrorize the Palestinians into compliance. In the dying days of apartheid we subsidized thousands of terrorists in SW Africa. We let Cuban emigre terrorists train in Florida. We give huge subsidies to the Colombian military, a quasi-terror institution.
As ye sow, so shall ye reap- as true now as it was then.
Ok then it looks like the response is that if Al Qaeda vanished there would still be a huge problem because the US still exists. Not the answer I thought I would get. Anyone else want to give it a try.
Sebastian, try reading this cartoon…
no, America’s only in it for the oil
And anyway Al Qaeda was created during the cold war by America and Osama Bin-Ladin (don’t know if the spellings right but you know who i mean) the primary purpose of it was to fight soviets (a mistake a bout the cold war is that it wasn’t cold over 2milion people lost their lives) i believe that its other purpose was if the cold war ended a new enemy would be needed
to inspire fear in to the populous in order to control them
another note a bout America is that you become your what you hate Ive recently red Mine Camf [My Struggle (Hitler’s autobiography)] and have noticed some worrying similarity’s to Americas current regime but what can you expect from the grandchild of one of Hitlers major financial backers but in stead of Jews its Muslims