So the BBC (hat tip Wilfred) is running further with the idea than the US media that the Terror Alerts announced Sunday are timed to promote some GOP political advantage (considering how old the intel is there’s an argument to be made there). They offer that it was timed to “to knock presidential challenger John Kerry off the front pages after his nomination as the Democratic Party’s candidate last week.”
The White House, of course, denied that: But [Homeland security adviser Frances Townsend] said: “It had nothing to do with the Democratic National Convention.”
If you’re of the mind to question all such timings (and let’s face it, there’s a track record to consider here) you might want to consider whether it was actually timed to help cover this news:
Consumer Spending Plunges to 3-Year Low
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that consumer spending dropped by a sharp 0.7 percent in June from the previous month. The retrenchment came after consumers splurged in May, ratcheting up spending by a strong 1 percent.
Americans’ incomes rose by 0.2 percent in June, down from a solid 0.6 percent increase the month before.
The figures are not adjusted for price changes.
The latest snapshot of consumer spending was weaker than economists were expecting. They were forecasting a tiny 0.1 percent dip in spending and a 0.3 percent rise in incomes for June.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States. Thus it plays a key role in shaping an economic recovery.
OK, so the implication of wanting to cover bad news with a terrorist alert is a cheap shot. I’ll admit it. I mean, the Bush Administration has so much bad news to content with all the time, when could they make such information public and not have it coincide with bad news for them or good news for the Democrats?Think about it.
Now if I can only find my old “It’s the Economy, Stupid!” t-shirt…
I was just going to post this as a comment to one of your earlier posts on the “terror alert” that wasn’t.
Whatever the reason for broadcasting an urgent “terror alert” based on data from over three years ago, it’s dirty pool, and stupid besides. Never mind “My Pet Goat”, someone should make Bush read The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
Or to cover up the latest on the debt:
“Snow seeks hike in U.S. debt ceiling”
http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/02/news/economy/treasury_debt.reut/
The dip in consumer spending tracks with a quiet bet I made with myself a while back: that the surge in consumer “confidence” and spending, which the White House has been trumpeting as a vindication of their fiscal policies and proof that the economy is rebounding, is actually a far more transient bounce from millions of Americans getting–and spending–their income tax refunds.
Which is not to say that that’s the whole story–only that I’m betting it’s been skewing the numbers and painting a rosier picture of the economy than is warranted. There are countless factors at work here, but that one should not be underestimated.
Pre-emptive anti-troll spray: no, the fact that consumer spending spiked due to tax refunds does not justify the Bush tax cuts–unless you think that a once-a-year shot in the arm is enough to prop up an otherwise abysmal economy and frightening job market.
I’m not aware of any day of the year on which there is not a particular piece of news that makes the Bush administration look bad; it’s what keeps the lefty bloggers in business daily after all.
Meanwhile, it’s my understanding that this information was discovered last month; the fact that it may be a few years old is irrelevant given Al Qaeda attack timeframes.
[sniff]
Mmmmm, I love the smell of desperation in the morning!
You know it’s going to be a good day, when Jes starts folding the foil this early.
I love the smell of desperation in the morning!
Wow, then you’re really gonna hate the Kerry Presidency. ; 0
Eddie, I thought the Admin was trying to bury The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index which registered 62.0 last month, up from 61.1 in June. It was the 14th consecutive monthly increase and in line with analysts’ forecasts.
Good news indeed, Timmy, but with declining real wages and a net job loss, it may not help the GOP all that much.
JKC, maybe yes, maybe no, but it wasn’t really the purpose of my comment
Eddie, I thought the Admin was trying to bury The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index which registered 62.0 last month, up from 61.1 in June.
Why would you think that? They have it right there on their website.
What seems to be missing though is the information about the consumer spending…funny that.
Oh, I thought it was timed to bump the stories of four more U.S. troops killed in Iraq. Or another oil pipeline sabotage.
But I suppose it could be the dive in consumer spending. Or rising job cuts. Or oil prices spiking above $44 a barrel, unnecessarily screwing the consumer, but vastly enriching Exxon CEO’s.
That’s why I love America. So many choices!
Nice one Mad AZ Monk!
As compared to the BBC, we have British Intelligence saying More financial institutions than previously disclosed may be at risk of attack, and an al-Qaida operative has told British intelligence that the group’s target date is early September, intelligence sources said yesterday.
So Edward working very hard to change the subject, eh.
I think the last thing I’d expect in an industry whose demand is constantly increasing is record profit in a time when prices are on the upswing.
If I hadn’t taken a couple of Econ courses, that is.
Mmmmm, I love the smell of desperation in the morning!
Who smelt it, dealt it.
😉
Another line to consider in Stryker’s post:
If we’re going to have a “war” on terrorism, then let’s have the real thing, with sacrifice expected from the public at large, as opposed to a few in uniform abroad.
is actually a far more transient bounce from millions of Americans getting–and spending–their income tax refunds.
Hmm, me and those I know that expect a refund generally get our taxes into the IRS in early Feb.; receiving and spending our refund by March. Of course, I’m a professional spender. Your mileage may vary 😉
Then again, Spending on durable goods declined by 5.9 percent in June, compared with a 3.7 percent rise in May. For nondurables such as food and clothes, spending dipped by 0.3 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase. Spending on services rose by 0.2 percent, down from a 0.3 percent increase
Maybe the drop that was caused by the dip in auto and clothing purchases was really about folks going on vacation and using services?
But hey, consumer spending is PLUNGING, PLUNGING!!!!, feh.
It’s amazing how so many people seem to be economics majors now and can surely point out that the economy is SOARING if you just admit it or open your eyes.
It’s the opening your eyes part that seem to deflate their argument.
The facts are biased again.
The facts are biased again.
You know, I was just now thinking that very thing. I hate it when that happens.
Jes,
That was pretty funny.
Well, conusmer spending may be down a tad that month, but this would seem encouraging – The American manufacturing sector sped up activity in July, cementing the longest stretch of rapid growth in more than 30 years, a survey showed.
Posts like this are why I like the econopundit.
Bad economic numbers? No problem, according to Cheney!
The Halliburton Company secretly changed its accounting practices when Vice President Dick Cheney was its chief executive, the Securities and Exchange Commission said yesterday as it fined the company $7.5 million and brought actions against two former financial officials.
The commission said the accounting change enabled Halliburton, one of the nation’s largest energy services companies, to report annual earnings in 1998 that were 46 percent higher than they would have been had the change not been made. It also allowed the company to report a substantially higher profit in 1999, the commission said.
Link
Maybe Lay and Cheney were also exchanging anecdotes about accounting tricks during those energy meetings in 2001.