It’s often said that the President of the United States is the “Leader of the Free World,” and although non-US citizens don’t get a vote in our national elections, who we choose to run the US will in many ways impact their lives. If the rest of the world were to be given a say though, it’s now clear that Kerry would be their choice:
A new poll in 35 countries suggests that people around the world would prefer Democratic challenger John Kerry as US president over George W Bush.
Global research company GlobeScan Inc and the University of Maryland found clear leads for Mr Kerry among those polled in 30 of the countries.Only Filipino, Polish and Nigerian respondents clearly backed Mr Bush.
Here are some key results:
POLL RESULTS (KERRY-BUSH)
Norway: 74%-7%
Germany: 74%-10%
France: 64%-5%
Italy: 58%-14%
Spain: 45%-7%
UK: 47%-16%
Canada: 61%-16%
Mexico: 38%-18%
Brazil: 57%-14%
China: 52%-12%
Japan: 43%-32%
Indonesia: 57%-34%
India: 34%-33%—————————-
Philippines: 32%-57%
Nigeria: 33%-27%
Poland: 26%-31%
Thailand: 30%-33%
—————————-
Source: GlobeScan Inc/University of Maryland PIPA
Now there were some problems with this poll. Most notably, access limited polling to metropolitan areas in 11 of the 30 countries (and this report doesn’t say which 11 [see below for which ones]), and as here in the US, it’s arguable that Bush would be more popular among non-urban interviewees (although that’s by no means certain and it’s more likely that widespread access is greater in Italy, for example, than it is in Nigeria). Then there’s the growing American attitude (at least among many Bush supporters) that we don’t care what the rest of the world thinks. Not until we need to UN to lend legitimacy to our handover in a country we invaded or some other such venture, that is. But all of this adds credence to the Kerry claim that he would be better able to rally international support for US efforts in the war against terrorists. In a conflict of such global proportions, that has to be seen as an advantage for the US.
UPDATE: I found the report (it’s on this site, but it’s tricky to get to…and it’s a pdf file…nope, found a way to extract it…here it is):
The poll of 34,330 people was conducted mainly during July and August 2004 by GlobeScan and its worldwide network of research institutes, in conjunction with the Program on International
Policy Attitudes (PIPA) of the University of Maryland. Due to the difficulties of polling in
developing countries, in eleven countries, polling was limited to metropolitan areas. The margin
of error ranged from +/- 2.3-5%.Steven Kull, director of PIPA, comments, “Only one in five want to see Bush reelected. Though he is not as well known, Kerry would win handily if the people of the world were to elect the US president.” (emphasis mine)
Apparently ABB is not limited to the US.
The nations in which only urban opinions were sampled include Brazil, China, Colombia, Dominican Republic, India, Indonesia, Peru, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuala. In all the others, the samples were nationwide.
I’m not satisfied. I think Kerry should win everywhere,and I blame poor name recognition–there is a much higher % of people who didn’t answer in most of the countries where Bush was ahead or close. I’m conceding the Phillipines but that’s it.
Odd that no Middle Eastern countries were polled.
How many Electoral College votes does the UK get, then?
Odd that no Middle Eastern countries were polled.
Turkey was the closest to an ME country (and they favored Kerry 40% to 25%).
Full list included Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Dominican Rep, France, Germany, Ghana, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe
How many Electoral College votes does the UK get, then?
None, and that’s fine by me, but as the world gets smaller and US corporations spread their offices around the globe, the POTUS has more and more influence over the lives of non-US citizens. Their opinions shouldn’t, in and of themselves, change our votes, but they should to some small degree inform them. We aren’t alone on this planet.
Anybody have an idea of how popular previous American presidents have been overseas?
Reagan was hated around the world. His name is now revered in many ex-Communist countries.
Reagan was hated around the world. His name is now revered in many ex-Communist countries.
Err…the countries most wanting Bush replaced are mainly established democracies…traditional allies and such, you know.
Reagan was hated in France, West Germany, Italy, Spain, and by much of the UK. He was detested in South Korea.
I am having trouble quickly finding data on the web, but I do have an impression based on my memories of seeing such polls occasionally through the years, and here it is.
Other Presidents: much more popular. Reagan was relatively unpopular in Europe, for a U.S. President, but nothing in this ballpark. Bush’s numbers are absolutely abysmal. He’s a laughing stock in Europe, and there is no good comparison among previous Presidents. The trend for a very wide gap between European favorability of the Democratic Party vs the Republican Party is brand spanking new (although Democrats have had a narrow lead for quite a while).
You have Nigeria’s numbers reveresed. They should read
Bush 33% Kerry 27% Although that 33& sure as hell doesn’t include anyone in my family.
Are those votes actually for Kerry or against Bush?
How’s Nader doing?
praktike,
Heh. Good point.
“Reagan was relatively unpopular in Europe, for a U.S. President, but nothing in this ballpark.”
Post-Rekjavik summit with Gorbachev, his numbers improved, as people grew less fearful that their future meals would be Gamma-irradiated Cockroach Surprise.
“Bush’s numbers are absolutely abysmal.”
Reagan was quite popular in Ireland. Clinton had Beatles-like popularity. Bush had tens of thousand demostrating against him in Dublin.
(Poor dear leader had an RTE journalist ask him tuff questions, boo hoo).
Oderint dum Metuant
Although it may shock some to hear it, foreign policy is not a popularity contest, nor should it be. If the world could cast a vote in the United States presidential election, John Kerry would beat George W. Bush by
“Although that 33& sure as hell doesn’t include anyone in my family.”
Are you so sure?
I’m willing to bet that the approval ratings for Bush in Nigeria go up monotonically as one heads southwards from the Niger-Nigeria border towards the Atlantic coast. Those millions who have to live with the madness of Sharia, Shekarau’s anti-polio jihad, the Miss World riots and the subsequent fatwa on Isioma Daniel, and all the other madness associated with Islamist extremism, likely have a very different take on the American election than pampered Europeans for whom it still remains just one big movie. Isn’t it telling that Bush is more strongly disliked in Norway and Germany than in Spain, the one European country which actually suffered an Islamic terrorist attack?
“Although that 33& sure as hell doesn’t include anyone in my family.”
Are you so sure?
Touché
Isn’t it telling that Bush is more strongly disliked in Norway and Germany than in Spain, the one European country which actually suffered an Islamic terrorist attack?
I don’t think it’s fair to equate oppossition to Bush with unseriousness in the War on terror.
I think the difference between Norway and Spain can be better explained by the incidence of cultural conservatism in either country. After all, we all remember that the Spanish electorate’s reaction to the Madrid bombings was hardly a ringing endorsement of all things Bush. And I dare say, France has had significantly more experience with Islamist terrorism than Italy. When it comes to European countries, I think the numbers correlate most with the right/left inclinations of the indeginous population. I suspect one would find similar rankings if the issue were gay marriage.
Furhtermore, your argument fails to explain why Kenya is so much more anti-Bush (58% to 25%) than Nigeria. Surely the embassy bombings must still be fresh in their minds.
I do agree with you on the demographic breakdown in Nigeria however. It’s hard for me to see norhtern Wahabis supporting Bush to a greater extent than southern Christians.
“and all the other madness associated with Islamist extremism, likely have a very different take on the American election than pampered Europeans for whom it still remains just one big movie.”
Of course, this assumes that unseriousness in the War on Terror leads one to dislike Bush. This is an opinion you’re welcome to, but it’s an opinion, and one you haven’t supported.
Although amusing this tells us nothing but that Bush is hated by the worldwide press. Like Will Rogers people don’t know nothin’ but what they read in the newspaper.
Respectfully, Dave, we British actually invented the television. We do in fact have non-print media.
I don’t personally hate Bush, of course – but I really wish he weren’t leader of the only superpower in the world.
I think I saw a television in France last month, too.
Of course, unless you’ve actually met him, your own perception of him is entirely second-hand, too; though I’m sure you’re exposed to far more of it than am I.
Hmmm, English invented the telly eh? Depends what you mean by television I guess. I’ll take Farnsworth as the inventor of real TV, with a picture and all.
Absolutely true, James Casey, in every particular. And I didn’t mean to slight the residents of the United Kingdom.
How many of the people in the survey have ever listened to an unedited Bush speech? Kerry speech? I’ve listened to several of each. Insomnia can be very helpful sometimes. How many of them get their impressions from clips on TV/radio/news articles? From the information on the poll itself I gather that the sole selection criterion was age so I think its reasonable to conclude that they’ve formed their opinions based on interpretations. I’ve never listened to an entire speech of President Chirac’s or Chancellor Schroeder’s. Have you? You’re a better man than I.
So I repeat my contention: people’s impressions are being formed based on what they’re told.
All of this is a moot point. It is the people of the US who elect the US President, as it should be. Other countries will base their opinions on perceptions, politics, and their own agendas. I have noted the opinion of various countries of the world. It will not help sway my eventual decision one way or the other, however. It is merely a piece of amusing trivia.
Anyway, I have little doubt that people in other countries have very little information on Kerry. WE have very little information on Kerry. Seems to be a more anti-Bush thing than anything else… most likely they prefer him because he is in opposition to Bush, not because of any personal merits or accomplishments. I will still judge based upon the merits of each individual, and I hope everyone else will, too, no matter whom they eventually choose.
Absolutely true, James Casey, in every particular. And I didn’t mean to slight the residents of the United Kingdom.
Dave Schuler – please be assured your comments were never taken that way!
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