I’m from the still waters run deep set of emotional responses. This has the disadvantage of being confused with cold or unfeeling from time to time, but you can’t force yourself too far out of character. When things were going very poorly in Iraq (most of 2004) I thought that it was way too early to bug out–I won’t say that my view has been vindicated, but things are definitely looking up. There is quite a bit of good news coming out of the Middle East now. Iraq just had successful elections–elections that were subject to much less violence than participated and included a large number of people who were apparently not willing to let terrorists stop them from voting. While Lebanon just had an important figure assassinated, it also appears that Syria may have overplayed its hand. The Palestinians look like they may actually be interested in a long term peace for the first time in my lifetime and Egypt is being encouraged to try out a more democratic government. (For a better look at these developments see this post by Charles Bird.
Considering how I began this post, you should be able to guess how I would respond to this. I’m happy at the positive signs, but I certainly don’t think it is time to smile and declare victory. The is not the time to celebrate, this is the time to be encouraged by the good things and keep trying to make them work. Even assuming that all of the good news is real, none of the advances are irreversible, and all of them are small steps. We are in a very fragile period of Middle East history. The old orders are breaking (or being broken) down. That is a good development. But what will replace them has yet to be determined. Just as we should not have been fooled by the easy first-stage victory March 2003–followed by a much longer fight–we must not be distracted by the first good signs in the rest of the Middle East. The big fights are probably still ahead of us. Use the good news now to fortify you for later.
In any case there is always the fact that Russia is going to be giving Iran nuclear fuel and Europe want to trade away its best weapons technology to China if you want to be dour.
P.S. Best diplomatic doublespeak of February: "While insisting Paris had strict controls to stop most lethal technologies passing into Chinese hands, Michele Alliot-Marie said: "The lifting of the embargo could be a better protection for us than maintaining it."
P.P.S. Now Hindrocket has gone too far: "…’Chris Rock,’ the host, <b>whom I’ve never otherwise heard of</b>, led off with an idiotic anti-Bush tirade." May I kindly submit that if you haven’t even heard of one of the most consistently funny and popular comedians in the past ten years, you probably don’t want to admit that in public.
Iraq just had successful elections–elections that were subject to much less violence than participated
Can I suggest that I think you mean “than anticipated”?
(The Palestinians look like they may actually be interested in a long term peace for the first time in my lifetime
Won’t do any good unless the Israel government is equally interested, and there’s no sign of that.)
i didn’t do a thorough search, but i find it strange that there hsan’t been more mention of the 106 dead in Hilla.
I certainly don’t think it is time to smile and declare victory
Simply reflects that there is still alot of heavy lifting but with the PRC pushing North Korea back to the table Iran appears to be the most pressing issue with no solution in sight.
Won’t do any good unless the Israel government is equally interested, and there’s no sign of that.
Funny how some people are so out of touch with reality but on the brighter side with the last attack on Israel by the terrorists there was no celebration by the Palestinians. This is progress and in no small part to Arafat being buried.
When things were going very poorly in Iraq (most of 2004) I thought that it was way too early to bug out–I won’t say that my view has been vindicated, but things are definitely looking up.
Only 60 Americans died in February in Iraq, at least 100 Americans were removed from the battlefiled due to grievious wounds and Lord knows how many Iraqis died. But Things are looking up.
Egypt is being encouraged to try out a more democratic government.
But only approved political parties are allowed to participate.
bold begone
“While insisting Paris had strict controls to stop most lethal technologies passing into Chinese hands, Michele Alliot-Marie said: “The lifting of the embargo could be a better protection for us than maintaining it.”
Plain English:
It’ll keep you busy surveilling the Chinese & trying to affect their policies and while you are doing that you’ll have less resources to do the same to us.
One of Sharon’s assistants said last fall that Sharon’s moves were merely tactical. He’s given up Gaza–from the rightwing Israeli view that’s a stunning development, but unless he shows a willingness to give up nearly all the West Bank and trade roughly equal amounts of Israeli land for whatever portions of the West Bank that they keep, then all that’s happened means no more than the developments in the 90’s, in which both sides showed bad faith.
Let Sharon embrace something like the Geneva accords and a token, non-demographically threatening embrace of a Palestinian right of return and then we’ll know he’s serious. That would still leave a lot of persuading and negotiating on both sides, to a large extent within each camp–Palestinians would have to be talked into realizing that a full-fledged right of return isn’t in the cards, unless Israelis miraculously change their minds on this. Israelis would have to recognize that admitting their ethnic cleansing operation in 1948 was wrong is as necessary to peace as denunciations of terror by Palestinian leaders. I think we’re a long way from that happening. I think Sharon will have to be pushed extremely hard to do this-his desire is to stall and win praise for tactical concessions while keeping Palestinian terrorism down without giving up something he really doesn’t want to give up. And he’ll have mainstream American support too, because you don’t find too many American politicians uttering a peep when Israelis kill Palestinians or continue stealing their land. In fact, when the State Department (under either Party) criticizes the Israelis for some misdeed, you usually find politicians in both parties leaping to Israel’s defense.
I meant to say (but got too caught up pontificating on I/P) that most of Sebastian’s post seemed about right to me. I was criticised in another blog when I said it was possible to simultaneously think Bush is a war criminal and that his little Mideast escapades might lead to some good. (I was posting in a leftwing blog, so the disagreement was over the second portion.) It seems to me that this commonly happens–large-scale changes usually can’t be summarized as all good or all bad and the same is true of the motivations of the actors. I find it difficult to wrap my head around the front page story in the NYT today, the one where the State Department is criticizing the current Iraqi government and other Mideast allies for human rights violations. This is welcome, but coming from this Administration it’s making my head hurt.
I used to chalk it up to the election, but Hindrocket is among the most relentlessly idiotic commentators in all of blogdom. Powerline improves immeasurably whenever he’s away. (Incidentally, I caught Coulter on Hannity & Colmes last night, and she was relentlessly defending Chris Rock. It requires a special combination of self-unawareness and rapant partisanship to be more humorless than Ann Coulter.)
I think the trends are favorable in the Middle East. The U.S. can help by applying its will in a sustained fashion.
I agree with you, Sebastian, on both Hindrocket and Chris Rock.
It requires a special combination of self-unawareness and rapant partisanship to be more humorless than Ann Coulter.
Yes, I laughed. Because I’m twelve.
1) You’re probably right about the mideast, though it’s nice to have some hopeful news for a change.
2) That isn’t actually the best Powerline post about the Oscars. This is:
Deacon:
“To me the Oscars represent another example of the left’s march through our institutions. The left has captured nearly all of the organizations and phenomena that meant something to me when I was growing up — the New York Times, CBS News, the NAACP, the ACLU, the professoriate, Hollywood, etc. etc.”
The left has captured the NAACP and the ACLU? Wow, we’re pretty devious. Thurgood Marshall must be rolling in his grave.
“But it’s a meaningless triumph because these institutions have lost their authority precisely by virtue of their leftward tilt. To illustrate, a Zogby poll shows that 39 percent of Democrats, but only 13 percent of Republicans, watch the Oscars.”
Yes, the Democrats can take away your moral authority just by looking at you. Board the doors and pull down the window shades.
“UPDATE by HINDROCKET: Deacon and I are probably pretty hard-core–the last comedian I really liked was Jack Benny”
I guess not a “South Park Republican,” then…The Jack Benny show went off the air in 1965.
Sebastian: good post. I don’t think I’m constitutionally averse to giving Bush credit (I did on the Sudan, for instance), but I find the rush to take credit for Lebanon just bizarre, both because it’s way early and also because of the lack of any obvious causal connection. (In this, Lebanon is obviously unlike Egypt, where my only hesitation is: it’s early days yet.) Plus, of course, because the people taking the credit tend to be US commentators, not the people who actually took risks.
Katherine: if Deacon can write: “The left has captured nearly all of the organizations and phenomena that meant something to me when I was growing up”, then I can only assume that government never meant anything to him to begin with. (And how do you capture a phenomenon?)
“Won’t do any good unless the Israel government is equally interested, and there’s no sign of that.”
Um, the Israeli responses of renouncing “targeted killings” of terrorist leaders, and of anyone unless they are in the actual act of committing terror; the Israeli turning over of security jurisdiction in the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority; the announced Israeli summit with Sharon and Abbas; the Israeli release of 900 prisoners (500 two weeks ago, 400 shortly); the votes authorizing the withdrawal from Gaza — all “nothing”?
the votes authorizing the withdrawal from Gaza — all “nothing”?
very little, more symbolic than anything else. wait ’till we get to the big questions (right of return, dismantlement of settlements on the west bank, east jerusalem) before singing the praises of the Israelis.
Keep in mind that while the Oslo aggreement was being negociated the numbers Israeli settler’s in the west bank practically doubled.
Arafat, Oslo and the “”peace process
“very little, more symbolic than anything else. wait ’till we get to the big questions (right of return, dismantlement of settlements on the west bank, east jerusalem) before singing the praises of the Israelis.”
Rather insanely obvious is the fact that both sides have an extremely long way to go, but no one will get anywhere if those on either side (and to some degree their supporters) look at major steps on the other side and dismiss them as “nothing.”
Fortunately, both the PA and Israeli government are, as generally is the case, acting with far greater wisdom and more accurate perceptions than a great many of their “supporters.”
“Keep in mind that while the Oslo aggreement was being negociated the numbers Israeli settler’s in the west bank practically doubled.”
Yes, thanks for the tip, since I know nothing whatever about the issues and history. That’s why I comment, after all.