by Eric Martin
Imagine if the Surge didn't work, and we didn't achieve victory in Iraq? Then you might read stories such as these:
An English based group called Maplecroft that studies human rights, the environment, terrorism, and politics issued its latest Terrorism Risk Index that found Iraq the number one country in the world most at risk for terrorist attacks…For the second year in a row Iraq was ranked number one. It was followed by Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Lebanon, India, Algeria, Columbia, Thailand, and the Philippines at number ten.
Maplecroft acknowledged that security had greatly improved in Iraq and that terrorist attacks were down, but it noted that over 4,000 people were still killed there in 2009, and that bombings and other security incidents are still daily occurrences. As reported before,…deaths in Iraq are at their lowest point since the 2003 invasion. That still means 100-500 people are killed a month, which is far too many. Violence has also leveled off since taking a dramatic drop at the beginning of 2009. Unless Iraqi politics are able to work out the many differences in the country its unlikely that the terrorist attacks will end in the short-term.
One wonders why the Iraqi people are not more grateful to the United States. Snark aside, way back when the Surge was being sold, its stated purpose was to create political room for reconciliation between the various factions, out of which a political compact would be forged that would lead to long term peace and stability. Despite the welcomed drop in violence, recent items in the news have included the Maliki government's bold move to ban a large number of alleged former Baathists from competing in upcoming elections, as well as whispers of ethnic/sectarian cleansing picking up pace in Mosul.
Not exactly indications of a broad-based governing philosophy. Nor will these moves allay the fears of recently disempowered minority groups.
Thus, with steady violence and conflict continuing to simmer under the veneer of calm, the political reconciliation that the Surge was supposed to deliver remains elusive, stoking fears that violence could…well, surge again in the near future.
Sorry about the mess.