by wj
For this weekend’s Open Thread, we step away from the chaos in the US and return to a familiar subject: Ukraine. (Bearing in mind that I’m nothing like an expert on the subject.)
Everyone has been talking for months about the coming Spring Offensive by Ukraine. So far, nothing has happened. Why not?
Well, first off, Ukraine has to wait for the ground to dry enough to support its equipment. Last year, Russia demonstrated the hazards of getting stuck on roads where you can be trapped. Second, Ukraine knows when they are going to start; the Russians do not. Which means that the Russians have to be on alert constantly – which can be exhausting. So another reason for Ukraine not to rush forward immediately.
On top of that, the Russian forces seem to be increasingly in disarray. Even compared to last year. Two weeks ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, was complaining that Russia was only providing his forces with 10% of the ammunition that they needed. (And was threatening to pull his troops out.) What does that mean? Several possibilities:
- Russian ammunition stores are in far worse shape than anyone had quite realized. Which would be a serious problem, even if they are fighting a defensive battle.
- Russian military commanders are hording their ammunition, even from the unit which has been the most successful on their side. And the one which has been taking the lead in the fighting around Bakhmut – which, whatever its lack of real strategic importance, has acquired some serious symbolic significance.
- Prigozhin is engaged in a CYA effort, talking ammunition shortages in order to try to conceal the fact that he is running out of the Russian convicts that he has been using for cannon fodder. And/or that he is bogged down in Bakhmut, without making much progress. If the Wagner Group, for whatever reasons, implodes, the Russian position will be seriously hurt.
Then last week, it developed that Prigozhin was in communication, repeated communications, with Ukrainian intelligence. Offering to give information on Russian troop positions, and perhaps more, apparently in exchange for a partial Ukrainian pullback. It doesn't appear that the Ukrainians are buying that bridge. But still, not the behavior one expects from a commander who thinks he is on the winning side.
And finally, the internal feuding between Prigozhin and the Russian general staff is no longer a two way fight. It seems that the Chechens are unhappy with their situation in the war, too. Their “volunteers” have been taking heavy casualties. And for what?
All in all, it looks to me like Ukraine’s prospects may be rather better than advertised. Sure, the Ukrainians have been trying to keep expectations low, for obvious reasons. But still, something like what they pulled off last fall may not be out of the question. And if the fighting season starts with that kind a blitz, it’s hard to see how Russia gets its feet back under it before the end of the year.
“And if the fighting season starts with that kind a blitz, it’s hard to see how Russia gets its feet back under it before the end of the year.”
From your mouth to the ear of any deities listening!
I have very little idea of what’s going on, other than the very obvious actions that make it onto the news. So much analysis seems to rely on unreliable sources (unreliable on Ukraine’s part for very good reasons!).
I began to worry about this some months ago, when we were hearing a lot about Russian casualty figures but very little about Ukraine’s military casualty count. It turns out, no surprise, that Ukraine’s forces have endured a staggering casualty rate.
On a brighter note, I suspect that the US and allies have been giving Ukraine more, and better, stuff than publicly acknowledged. This impression got a lot stronger when I heard about some nifty creative accounting that will allow the US to give Ukraine an additional $3 billion in aid without breaching the amount set in the Omnibus Bill.
“And if the fighting season starts with that kind a blitz, it’s hard to see how Russia gets its feet back under it before the end of the year.”
From your mouth to the ear of any deities listening!
I have very little idea of what’s going on, other than the very obvious actions that make it onto the news. So much analysis seems to rely on unreliable sources (unreliable on Ukraine’s part for very good reasons!).
I began to worry about this some months ago, when we were hearing a lot about Russian casualty figures but very little about Ukraine’s military casualty count. It turns out, no surprise, that Ukraine’s forces have endured a staggering casualty rate.
On a brighter note, I suspect that the US and allies have been giving Ukraine more, and better, stuff than publicly acknowledged. This impression got a lot stronger when I heard about some nifty creative accounting that will allow the US to give Ukraine an additional $3 billion in aid without breaching the amount set in the Omnibus Bill.
In the newspaper I read there was this morning a lengthy interview with a German military historian. He’s quite sceptical and sees a major problem for Ukraine looming: running out of experienced officers and sergeants. From his estimate most of the guys the US trained since 2008 are by now dead or wounded and thus no longer available. Ukraine depends on them far more than Russia since the latter has more cannon fodder. I a pure war of attrition the cards are stacked against the former. He expects the war to not end soon but drag on with Western support being the critical factor. The moment that falters Putin has won.
In the newspaper I read there was this morning a lengthy interview with a German military historian. He’s quite sceptical and sees a major problem for Ukraine looming: running out of experienced officers and sergeants. From his estimate most of the guys the US trained since 2008 are by now dead or wounded and thus no longer available. Ukraine depends on them far more than Russia since the latter has more cannon fodder. I a pure war of attrition the cards are stacked against the former. He expects the war to not end soon but drag on with Western support being the critical factor. The moment that falters Putin has won.
From your mouth to the ear of any deities listening!
Amen. The recent indications that Prigozhin may have been openly (at least by Russian standards) dissing Putin were interesting too.
The moment that falters Putin has won.
True, alas. And (also alas) I don’t know anybody who really expects Ukraine to get Crimea back, even in a best-case scenario.
Meanwhile, on the question of BRICS support for the Russian narrative, which we have discussed elsewhere, we now see South African commentators getting more exercised on the possibility (probability?) that if SA continues to favour Russia, it may lose its favoured, tariff-free trade status with the US which was conferred by AGOA (the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act). This calculation won’t, of course, alter the ideological prejudices of the BRICS nations, but it may well result in practical consequences.
From your mouth to the ear of any deities listening!
Amen. The recent indications that Prigozhin may have been openly (at least by Russian standards) dissing Putin were interesting too.
The moment that falters Putin has won.
True, alas. And (also alas) I don’t know anybody who really expects Ukraine to get Crimea back, even in a best-case scenario.
Meanwhile, on the question of BRICS support for the Russian narrative, which we have discussed elsewhere, we now see South African commentators getting more exercised on the possibility (probability?) that if SA continues to favour Russia, it may lose its favoured, tariff-free trade status with the US which was conferred by AGOA (the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act). This calculation won’t, of course, alter the ideological prejudices of the BRICS nations, but it may well result in practical consequences.
He expects the war to not end soon but drag on with Western support being the critical factor. The moment that falters Putin has won.
I expect that Putin will try to hold on until the US election in November next year. In the hopes that Trump will win, and hand him Ukraine on a platter. But whether he will be able to, especially in the face of further significant losses of ground, is debatable.
Of possible relevance is this, from the Washington Post:
I’ve never seen the Kremlin so rattled
on the mood in Moscow.
A few of the oligarchs and others whose support Putin depends on may be true-believers in his Greater Russia crusade. But a lot of others may find their enthusiasm waning. Not only are sanctions hitting their wealth, but it is becoming clear that physical attacks on them personally are far from impossible. Even far from the front.
He expects the war to not end soon but drag on with Western support being the critical factor. The moment that falters Putin has won.
I expect that Putin will try to hold on until the US election in November next year. In the hopes that Trump will win, and hand him Ukraine on a platter. But whether he will be able to, especially in the face of further significant losses of ground, is debatable.
Of possible relevance is this, from the Washington Post:
I’ve never seen the Kremlin so rattled
on the mood in Moscow.
A few of the oligarchs and others whose support Putin depends on may be true-believers in his Greater Russia crusade. But a lot of others may find their enthusiasm waning. Not only are sanctions hitting their wealth, but it is becoming clear that physical attacks on them personally are far from impossible. Even far from the front.
I too am far from an expert, but I can offer two sources of useful information.
1. Adam Silverman posts a daily update on Ukraine on Balloon Juice, including Zelenskyy’s daily address. He (Adam) is an expert and both his writing and the comments are illuminating.
2. Following a link in the comments led me to podcasts by Perun, an Australian analyst who also seems knowledgeable. The first one I viewed was on the subject of враньё (“vranyo”). I recommend it highly.
I too am far from an expert, but I can offer two sources of useful information.
1. Adam Silverman posts a daily update on Ukraine on Balloon Juice, including Zelenskyy’s daily address. He (Adam) is an expert and both his writing and the comments are illuminating.
2. Following a link in the comments led me to podcasts by Perun, an Australian analyst who also seems knowledgeable. The first one I viewed was on the subject of враньё (“vranyo”). I recommend it highly.
I was particularly taken by the story of Ukrainian small attacks across the Dneiper River. It still looks like a poor choice for the main assault. But just the fact that the Ukrainians are making gestures like they might forces the Russians to devote resources here that therefore aren’t available elsewhere.
As last fall, success is partly a matter of getting the enemy to focus his attention (and resources) in the wrong places.
I was particularly taken by the story of Ukrainian small attacks across the Dneiper River. It still looks like a poor choice for the main assault. But just the fact that the Ukrainians are making gestures like they might forces the Russians to devote resources here that therefore aren’t available elsewhere.
As last fall, success is partly a matter of getting the enemy to focus his attention (and resources) in the wrong places.
I wish Ukraine well in their efforts to resist Russian efforts to dominate and assimilate them. It would be good to see Ukraine force a withdrawal and a scaling back of the violence.
I worry for the long term future.
Ukraine has been severely depleted and damaged. I’m seeing reports that it will take 20 years for them to recover, and the human cost is going to ripple through generations.
I don’t know where Russia is headed with this long term. If Ukraine were to win a peace of some sort, I don’t know if the peace will last more than the time it takes to recover. And Ukraine remains prime ground for farming in a climate-altered future that the current Russian regime hopes to dominate.
How long will Putin continue as leader? What comes after him? How does the cost of this conflict alter the cost/benefit calculus of future conflict against a weakened Ukraine in the next decade (assuming there is a cessation of open, official hostilities in the nearer future – I don’t see that either side has the resources to sustain this for a whole lot longer)?
All of this makes me sad. And it all seems like a preview of a wider future I’d prefer to avoid.
I wish Ukraine well in their efforts to resist Russian efforts to dominate and assimilate them. It would be good to see Ukraine force a withdrawal and a scaling back of the violence.
I worry for the long term future.
Ukraine has been severely depleted and damaged. I’m seeing reports that it will take 20 years for them to recover, and the human cost is going to ripple through generations.
I don’t know where Russia is headed with this long term. If Ukraine were to win a peace of some sort, I don’t know if the peace will last more than the time it takes to recover. And Ukraine remains prime ground for farming in a climate-altered future that the current Russian regime hopes to dominate.
How long will Putin continue as leader? What comes after him? How does the cost of this conflict alter the cost/benefit calculus of future conflict against a weakened Ukraine in the next decade (assuming there is a cessation of open, official hostilities in the nearer future – I don’t see that either side has the resources to sustain this for a whole lot longer)?
All of this makes me sad. And it all seems like a preview of a wider future I’d prefer to avoid.
How long will Putin continue as leader? What comes after him?
Who might succeed Putin, and in what fashion, has long been mysterious.
Occasionally someone emerges as a frontrunner. But typically very temporarily. Not least because there are so few people Putin actually trusts.
And should Putin die in office, it’s equally uncertain who would succeed him. And, critically, for how long. The only difference in the two groups of scenarios is that, with Putin off the scene, the elites’ dislike of the whole Ukrainian misadventure would be more likely to color results.
How long will Putin continue as leader? What comes after him?
Who might succeed Putin, and in what fashion, has long been mysterious.
Occasionally someone emerges as a frontrunner. But typically very temporarily. Not least because there are so few people Putin actually trusts.
And should Putin die in office, it’s equally uncertain who would succeed him. And, critically, for how long. The only difference in the two groups of scenarios is that, with Putin off the scene, the elites’ dislike of the whole Ukrainian misadventure would be more likely to color results.
My family is chuckling over this.
https://xkcd.com/2778/
It does occur to me that, while I expect everybody here will get the joke, there is probably a big chunk of the population which totally wouldn’t. A different take on “two cultures.”
My family is chuckling over this.
https://xkcd.com/2778/
It does occur to me that, while I expect everybody here will get the joke, there is probably a big chunk of the population which totally wouldn’t. A different take on “two cultures.”
Who might succeed Putin, and in what fashion, has long been mysterious.
Didn’t you watch the May Day parade to see who was standing next to Putin on Lenin’s tomb? That’s how it was divined in the good old days.
Who might succeed Putin, and in what fashion, has long been mysterious.
Didn’t you watch the May Day parade to see who was standing next to Putin on Lenin’s tomb? That’s how it was divined in the good old days.
who was standing next to Putin on Lenin’s tomb? That’s how it was divined in the good old days.
Then, as now, that indicates nothing more than who the incumbent favors. At the moment. You need to look across several years to figure out if it means something. And you probably have to subtract out all the guys in uniform (a big group this time**), unless you want to predict Russia’s first ever military coup….
** My recollection is that Soviet events featured more Central Committee members (i.e. civilians), and fewer military.
who was standing next to Putin on Lenin’s tomb? That’s how it was divined in the good old days.
Then, as now, that indicates nothing more than who the incumbent favors. At the moment. You need to look across several years to figure out if it means something. And you probably have to subtract out all the guys in uniform (a big group this time**), unless you want to predict Russia’s first ever military coup….
** My recollection is that Soviet events featured more Central Committee members (i.e. civilians), and fewer military.
who the incumbent favors
I don’t think this incumbent favors anyone. Too much danger that the incumbent would get impatient.
“Après moi, le déluge”
who the incumbent favors
I don’t think this incumbent favors anyone. Too much danger that the incumbent would get impatient.
“Après moi, le déluge”
“Après moi, le déluge”
These very words have been occurring to me almost every day.
“Après moi, le déluge”
These very words have been occurring to me almost every day.
“Après moi, le déluge”
AKA January 6, 2021.
Turned out to be a local cloudburst, rather than a storm. This time.
“Après moi, le déluge”
AKA January 6, 2021.
Turned out to be a local cloudburst, rather than a storm. This time.
That’s not what the saying is about.
From wikipedia, cleaned up a bit for readability:
Clickbait was most definitely not thinking that what came after January 6 would involve him being gone.
That’s not what the saying is about.
From wikipedia, cleaned up a bit for readability:
Clickbait was most definitely not thinking that what came after January 6 would involve him being gone.
Just for the record, I was aware of the origin of the quote.
Just for the record, I was aware of the origin of the quote.
wj — sorry, after I wrote my comment I wondered if I was misinterpreting what you meant. The urge to pedant is strong.
I still don’t see that it applies, but … opinions vary. 😉
wj — sorry, after I wrote my comment I wondered if I was misinterpreting what you meant. The urge to pedant is strong.
I still don’t see that it applies, but … opinions vary. 😉
In addition to Adam Silverman’s posts on Balloon Juice, there are regular Ukraine updates on Daily Kos, usually by Mark Sumner and occasionally by Kos – for example when he would provide first hand experience of the logistical train of some specific weapons being provided (or others were suggesting be provided) by the U.S. There’s frequently a fair amount of overlap in the information from those two sources, but usually worth looking at both; the comments at BJ can provide additional info, as noted above, at Kos not so much.
In addition to Adam Silverman’s posts on Balloon Juice, there are regular Ukraine updates on Daily Kos, usually by Mark Sumner and occasionally by Kos – for example when he would provide first hand experience of the logistical train of some specific weapons being provided (or others were suggesting be provided) by the U.S. There’s frequently a fair amount of overlap in the information from those two sources, but usually worth looking at both; the comments at BJ can provide additional info, as noted above, at Kos not so much.
Martin Amis has died of the same cancer that killed his best friend, Christopher Hitchens. It feels significant. I was not a wholehearted admirer of his novels (with the exception of Money), but the memoir Experience was terrific. Of course, he was what they now call a nepo baby, but nobody could ever accuse him of a lack of self insight. His piece after Hitch’s death had some wonderful stuff in it, which my friends and I still quote at each other at relevant times. RIP.
Martin Amis has died of the same cancer that killed his best friend, Christopher Hitchens. It feels significant. I was not a wholehearted admirer of his novels (with the exception of Money), but the memoir Experience was terrific. Of course, he was what they now call a nepo baby, but nobody could ever accuse him of a lack of self insight. His piece after Hitch’s death had some wonderful stuff in it, which my friends and I still quote at each other at relevant times. RIP.
Clarification: the death feels significant, not the cause of death.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/books/martin-amis-dead.html
Clarification: the death feels significant, not the cause of death.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/books/martin-amis-dead.html
I only read “The Rachel Papers” which I enjoyed quite a bit, it seemed truthful, but then I was more interested in to Julian Barnes, David Lodge and Alisdair Gray .
Funny quote about himself vs. Barnes here
I find that people take my writing rather personally. It’s interesting when you’re doing signing sessions with other writers and you look at the queues at each table and you can see definite human types gathering there … With Julian Barnes, his queue seemed to be peopled by rather comfortable, professional types. My queue is always full of, you know, wild-eyed sleazebags and people who stare at me very intensely, as if I have some particular message for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/may/20/martin-amis-a-life-in-quotes
While I haven’t read his later work, it’s a pity that after 9/11 he turned into the annoying uncle who says racist things at family gatherings.
All this macho contrarianism (he’s bested of course by Hitchens) was rather unpleasant to put it mildly and of course not very constructive.
I only read “The Rachel Papers” which I enjoyed quite a bit, it seemed truthful, but then I was more interested in to Julian Barnes, David Lodge and Alisdair Gray .
Funny quote about himself vs. Barnes here
I find that people take my writing rather personally. It’s interesting when you’re doing signing sessions with other writers and you look at the queues at each table and you can see definite human types gathering there … With Julian Barnes, his queue seemed to be peopled by rather comfortable, professional types. My queue is always full of, you know, wild-eyed sleazebags and people who stare at me very intensely, as if I have some particular message for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/may/20/martin-amis-a-life-in-quotes
While I haven’t read his later work, it’s a pity that after 9/11 he turned into the annoying uncle who says racist things at family gatherings.
All this macho contrarianism (he’s bested of course by Hitchens) was rather unpleasant to put it mildly and of course not very constructive.
Ah yes, in English you can verb any noun. 🙂
Ah yes, in English you can verb any noun. 🙂
Since this is an open thread – if you’re puzzled by the result of the Turkish elections, or Turkish politics in general, here is a very illuminating interview:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-erdogan-prevailed-in-a-battle-of-competing-turkish-nationalisms
Since this is an open thread – if you’re puzzled by the result of the Turkish elections, or Turkish politics in general, here is a very illuminating interview:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-erdogan-prevailed-in-a-battle-of-competing-turkish-nationalisms
Some interesting bit on the OT from Max Boot.
I was just in Kyiv under fire. I saw why Ukraine can win.
He notes that the Ukrainians are taking care to keep expectations down. But there are reasons for optimism; for why they don’t say “After the war”, but “After the victory.”
I was also amused by this, on the missile attacks on Kviv:
The resemblance to London during the Blitz is striking. Albeit with less successful damage occurring.
If you can laugh at your enemy, and the whole situation, the morale battle is definitely going your way.
Some interesting bit on the OT from Max Boot.
I was just in Kyiv under fire. I saw why Ukraine can win.
He notes that the Ukrainians are taking care to keep expectations down. But there are reasons for optimism; for why they don’t say “After the war”, but “After the victory.”
I was also amused by this, on the missile attacks on Kviv:
The resemblance to London during the Blitz is striking. Albeit with less successful damage occurring.
If you can laugh at your enemy, and the whole situation, the morale battle is definitely going your way.
Having spent a moderate amount of time with https://historicengland.org.uk/images-books/archive/collections/aerial-photos/ / https://maps.nls.uk/os/air-photos/info.html, there may be less damage in Kiev than in London, but as much or more damage to Ukraine overall?
We recently bought a 1914 house that was leveled in the Blitz and rebuilt post-war; these photos helped us provide evidence that some apparent “changes” to the house were evident in the foundations before 1950 and so the solicitors could stop fussing about permits & construction approvals.
Having spent a moderate amount of time with https://historicengland.org.uk/images-books/archive/collections/aerial-photos/ / https://maps.nls.uk/os/air-photos/info.html, there may be less damage in Kiev than in London, but as much or more damage to Ukraine overall?
We recently bought a 1914 house that was leveled in the Blitz and rebuilt post-war; these photos helped us provide evidence that some apparent “changes” to the house were evident in the foundations before 1950 and so the solicitors could stop fussing about permits & construction approvals.
Talking of creatives (on the other thread, novakant was, and Charles wasn’t), some of the pieces on Amis are wonderful. I loved this, from a James Parker piece in the Atlantic in 2012, which was linked in one of the many pieces now being written about him. Apparently, when a newspaper (the Guardian? the Times?)put out a call to writers for pieces about him after his death, they were absolutely swamped:
In this state, it can be hazardous to read Martin Amis—to suffer the thrills of envy (I want it!), larceny (Can I steal it?), resentment (Bastard!), all leading where? Ah, you know where: into a writer’s dark night, the meat-locker chill of professional despair. The ego, inverted. I might as well give up. Pete Townshend and Eric Clapton, watching Jimi Hendrix at The Scotch of St James in London, were (according to Townshend) so harrowed with fear and wonder that they found themselves meekly holding hands. The apprentice writer reads Martin Amis, and whose hand can he hold but his own?
So many of the people writing about him acknowledge the effect he had on their style, and literary fiction in general. And his literary criticism and essays were, it is true, great. But what some have stressed was his moral seriousness, which was an inescapable aspect of his thought to anybody paying attention. I see that it was in this thread that novakant referred to (I think this was what he was referring to) Amis’s regrettable remarks about Islamism, and in fact Muslims, in the wake of the terrorist attacks of the early 2000s. I say regrettable, because he openly regretted and apologised for them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/the-amis-obsession/309110/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Talking of creatives (on the other thread, novakant was, and Charles wasn’t), some of the pieces on Amis are wonderful. I loved this, from a James Parker piece in the Atlantic in 2012, which was linked in one of the many pieces now being written about him. Apparently, when a newspaper (the Guardian? the Times?)put out a call to writers for pieces about him after his death, they were absolutely swamped:
In this state, it can be hazardous to read Martin Amis—to suffer the thrills of envy (I want it!), larceny (Can I steal it?), resentment (Bastard!), all leading where? Ah, you know where: into a writer’s dark night, the meat-locker chill of professional despair. The ego, inverted. I might as well give up. Pete Townshend and Eric Clapton, watching Jimi Hendrix at The Scotch of St James in London, were (according to Townshend) so harrowed with fear and wonder that they found themselves meekly holding hands. The apprentice writer reads Martin Amis, and whose hand can he hold but his own?
So many of the people writing about him acknowledge the effect he had on their style, and literary fiction in general. And his literary criticism and essays were, it is true, great. But what some have stressed was his moral seriousness, which was an inescapable aspect of his thought to anybody paying attention. I see that it was in this thread that novakant referred to (I think this was what he was referring to) Amis’s regrettable remarks about Islamism, and in fact Muslims, in the wake of the terrorist attacks of the early 2000s. I say regrettable, because he openly regretted and apologised for them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/the-amis-obsession/309110/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
RIP Tina Turner. Do I love you? My oh my….
RIP Tina Turner. Do I love you? My oh my….
An implicit basis for DeSantis’ run against Trump is that he would do the same things, but competently. Which makes his announcement fiasco today especially damaging.
Twitter repeatedly crashes as DeSantis tries to make presidential announcement
It’s gotta hurt when “technical difficulties” cause you to have to restart half an hour behind schedule. And with half the audience that was there initially.
An implicit basis for DeSantis’ run against Trump is that he would do the same things, but competently. Which makes his announcement fiasco today especially damaging.
Twitter repeatedly crashes as DeSantis tries to make presidential announcement
It’s gotta hurt when “technical difficulties” cause you to have to restart half an hour behind schedule. And with half the audience that was there initially.
I am a bit surprised because I thought probably the load would not be all that high. I guess this is what happens when you fire all your competent employees.
I am a bit surprised because I thought probably the load would not be all that high. I guess this is what happens when you fire all your competent employees.
this is what happens when you fire all your competent employees.
Oh, I don’t think he fired all of them. Some quit in disgust first.
this is what happens when you fire all your competent employees.
Oh, I don’t think he fired all of them. Some quit in disgust first.
Back on topic, Fresh From Attack on Russian Soil, Raiders Taunt the Kremlin [gift link]
Back on topic, Fresh From Attack on Russian Soil, Raiders Taunt the Kremlin [gift link]
Definitely creating pressure to beef up defenses along the border (however minimal the actual damage). Add in the Wagner Group declaring victory (at Bakhmut) and going home,** leaving the Russian military to either send in troops or accept the Ukrainians taking it right back. All while knowing that the Ukrainians are preparing at attack real soon somewhere.
The Russian Army is not exactly brimming with spare, let alone experienced or competent, troops. Leaving them with a choice: concentrate in a few places, giving them enough strength to (maybe) defend those successfully, and hope that they’ve guessed right about where the offensive will hit. Or try to cover everything, leaving nobody with enough troops. Rock; hard place; plus avalanche in prospect.
Definitely creating pressure to beef up defenses along the border (however minimal the actual damage). Add in the Wagner Group declaring victory (at Bakhmut) and going home,** leaving the Russian military to either send in troops or accept the Ukrainians taking it right back. All while knowing that the Ukrainians are preparing at attack real soon somewhere.
The Russian Army is not exactly brimming with spare, let alone experienced or competent, troops. Leaving them with a choice: concentrate in a few places, giving them enough strength to (maybe) defend those successfully, and hope that they’ve guessed right about where the offensive will hit. Or try to cover everything, leaving nobody with enough troops. Rock; hard place; plus avalanche in prospect.
The MAGAts will be horrified. But probably not surprised (this being Californis, after all).
Census: White residents are no longer Bay Area’s largest racial group
Yet somehow, even with all those immigrants, incomes remain high and there are still more jobs going begging than workers available to fill them. Correlation is not causation, but….
The MAGAts will be horrified. But probably not surprised (this being Californis, after all).
Census: White residents are no longer Bay Area’s largest racial group
Yet somehow, even with all those immigrants, incomes remain high and there are still more jobs going begging than workers available to fill them. Correlation is not causation, but….
On my campus it’s 16% white and the Bay Area looks like it needs a DEI initiative. 😉
Seriously, though, whenever we go to the middle of the US it all seems so very white and so very like being caught in a time warp.
On my campus it’s 16% white and the Bay Area looks like it needs a DEI initiative. 😉
Seriously, though, whenever we go to the middle of the US it all seems so very white and so very like being caught in a time warp.
As much as I would like to be optimistic about
As much as my heart would like Ukraine to win this, my head tells me that this won’t be resolved for years to come.
I expect a US strategy shift in autumn:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/will-the-ukraine-war-become-a-frozen-conflict.html
As much as I would like to be optimistic about
As much as my heart would like Ukraine to win this, my head tells me that this won’t be resolved for years to come.
I expect a US strategy shift in autumn:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/will-the-ukraine-war-become-a-frozen-conflict.html
“Correlation is not causation, but….”
…they’re correlated.
“Correlation is not causation, but….”
…they’re correlated.
…they’re correlated.
They’re correlated in this case. The obvious question being: are they correlated elsewhere. Perhaps even more critically, is there an inverse correlation: does increasing the percentage of the non-Asian population* correlate with a drop in those characteristics?**
* For lack of a better marker for the inverse. Although “immigrant population” might be interesting as well.
** Surely, it this wide country, there must be some place where that is happening?
…they’re correlated.
They’re correlated in this case. The obvious question being: are they correlated elsewhere. Perhaps even more critically, is there an inverse correlation: does increasing the percentage of the non-Asian population* correlate with a drop in those characteristics?**
* For lack of a better marker for the inverse. Although “immigrant population” might be interesting as well.
** Surely, it this wide country, there must be some place where that is happening?
Because every day needs a small amusement.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1661484293821198336
Because every day needs a small amusement.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1661484293821198336
so very like being caught in a time warp.
One of the select board candidates in my town (voting is next month) has signs that say “Local family, local values.” In the candidates’ meet-the-public meeting, according to a friend of mine, he said he wanted to take the town back to what it was 25 years ago. “We don’t want to become like Lewiston,” he is reported to have said. (I didn’t log in to the zoom or go to the meeting.) You know what happened in Lewiston in the past 25 years…..
*****
San Francisco: My family took a trip to SF in the very early nineties. My then-girlfriend and I took the kids to the museum that has dinosaur bones because my son was OBSESSED with dinosaurs. It was either a school vacation week, or free week for summer camp kids, or something, but the place was packed with school/camp groups of children, and they were almost all Asian. Coming from so-very-white Maine, it was a good reminder. If you had landed there from Mars, you wouldn’t have had a clue that the country you had landed in was majority white.
so very like being caught in a time warp.
One of the select board candidates in my town (voting is next month) has signs that say “Local family, local values.” In the candidates’ meet-the-public meeting, according to a friend of mine, he said he wanted to take the town back to what it was 25 years ago. “We don’t want to become like Lewiston,” he is reported to have said. (I didn’t log in to the zoom or go to the meeting.) You know what happened in Lewiston in the past 25 years…..
*****
San Francisco: My family took a trip to SF in the very early nineties. My then-girlfriend and I took the kids to the museum that has dinosaur bones because my son was OBSESSED with dinosaurs. It was either a school vacation week, or free week for summer camp kids, or something, but the place was packed with school/camp groups of children, and they were almost all Asian. Coming from so-very-white Maine, it was a good reminder. If you had landed there from Mars, you wouldn’t have had a clue that the country you had landed in was majority white.
One of the school board candidates has a sign that says:
A Academic Excellence
B Back to Basics
C Collaborate with Parents
Besides not having a grasp of parallel structure, I am pretty sure she is dog-whistling, I need not explain in what way. I’m sure she doesn’t mean *all* parents.
One of the school board candidates has a sign that says:
A Academic Excellence
B Back to Basics
C Collaborate with Parents
Besides not having a grasp of parallel structure, I am pretty sure she is dog-whistling, I need not explain in what way. I’m sure she doesn’t mean *all* parents.
And of course if this weren’t just a blog comment thread, and I hadn’t just come home from errands, I myself might have a grasp of dangling something-or-others introducing sentences.
And of course if this weren’t just a blog comment thread, and I hadn’t just come home from errands, I myself might have a grasp of dangling something-or-others introducing sentences.
History of Somalis in Maine.
Note the description of the mayor as having been “out of state” on the day of a pair of competing demonstrations. The use of the phrase “out of state” is a pretty sure clue that the person who wrote that paragraph is a Mainer. Everywhere else I’ve lived, it would have been “out of town.”
I probably told this story before, but I do love it so I’ll tell it again: When I first moved here, I took my two tiny kids to meet their dad for lunch. In the front office of the place where he worked, the man who greeted me said, by way of chatting, that he had just come back from vacation and wasn’t yet back in the swing of things in the office.
I said, “Where’d you go on vacation?”
He said, “Out of state.” And stopped.
Like, there was no need to make a distinction between, let’s say, Portsmouth NH and Paris or Beirut, all I needed to know was that he had crossed the sacred boundaries and made it back safely.
I do love this place.
History of Somalis in Maine.
Note the description of the mayor as having been “out of state” on the day of a pair of competing demonstrations. The use of the phrase “out of state” is a pretty sure clue that the person who wrote that paragraph is a Mainer. Everywhere else I’ve lived, it would have been “out of town.”
I probably told this story before, but I do love it so I’ll tell it again: When I first moved here, I took my two tiny kids to meet their dad for lunch. In the front office of the place where he worked, the man who greeted me said, by way of chatting, that he had just come back from vacation and wasn’t yet back in the swing of things in the office.
I said, “Where’d you go on vacation?”
He said, “Out of state.” And stopped.
Like, there was no need to make a distinction between, let’s say, Portsmouth NH and Paris or Beirut, all I needed to know was that he had crossed the sacred boundaries and made it back safely.
I do love this place.
On the southern border, there’s been about an eight-fold increase in Chinese citizens trying to enter the country.
On the southern border, there’s been about an eight-fold increase in Chinese citizens trying to enter the country.
On the southern border, there’s been about an eight-fold increase in Chinese citizens trying to enter the country.
That’s a lot of backpack nukes…*
*Old White Power propaganda from the 80s-90s.
On the southern border, there’s been about an eight-fold increase in Chinese citizens trying to enter the country.
That’s a lot of backpack nukes…*
*Old White Power propaganda from the 80s-90s.
So, did it increase from 1 to 8 or from 2 to 16?
So, did it increase from 1 to 8 or from 2 to 16?
So, did it increase from 1 to 8 or from 2 to 16?
Definitely just as cheap and easy to fly to the US directly as to Mexico City. Or, if you think you aren’t convincing as a tourist entering the US, fly to Vancouver or Toronto instead — the Canadian border is lots longer and far more open.
So, did it increase from 1 to 8 or from 2 to 16?
Definitely just as cheap and easy to fly to the US directly as to Mexico City. Or, if you think you aren’t convincing as a tourist entering the US, fly to Vancouver or Toronto instead — the Canadian border is lots longer and far more open.
Regardless of the best way to get into the US from China, the border patrol is finding groups of Chinese citizens who crossed the Mexican border. This may be their best option after paying smugglers to smuggle them out of China.
Regardless of the best way to get into the US from China, the border patrol is finding groups of Chinese citizens who crossed the Mexican border. This may be their best option after paying smugglers to smuggle them out of China.
I think what is being discussed is migration of Chinese citizens to the US using the methods and routes usually associated with asylum seekers from South and Central America:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/09/growing-numbers-of-chinese-citizens-set-their-sights-on-the-us-via-the-deadly-darien-gap
I think what is being discussed is migration of Chinese citizens to the US using the methods and routes usually associated with asylum seekers from South and Central America:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/09/growing-numbers-of-chinese-citizens-set-their-sights-on-the-us-via-the-deadly-darien-gap
Thanks, nous. That does answer my (implied) question: if you can afford to cross the Pacific, why go for this route?
And now it begins to make sense.
But the cost of a US tourist visa is only $160, and the wait time is 3 days. So why not go into the US consulate in Istanbul, claim your plans have changed, and apply for a visa? Still seems cheaper and easier that working your way north thru Central America and Mexico. “Over-staying a visa” is at least as effective as trying to sneak across the border. Not to mention it giving you 90 days to work out how you will disappear once inside the US.
Thanks, nous. That does answer my (implied) question: if you can afford to cross the Pacific, why go for this route?
And now it begins to make sense.
But the cost of a US tourist visa is only $160, and the wait time is 3 days. So why not go into the US consulate in Istanbul, claim your plans have changed, and apply for a visa? Still seems cheaper and easier that working your way north thru Central America and Mexico. “Over-staying a visa” is at least as effective as trying to sneak across the border. Not to mention it giving you 90 days to work out how you will disappear once inside the US.
But the cost of a US tourist visa is only $160, and the wait time is 3 days. So why not go into the US consulate in Istanbul, claim your plans have changed, and apply for a visa?
Or just go to a US consulate in China and get a visa. The rules are presumably the same for a Chinese citizen with a Chinese passport either way. To get to the US consul in Turkey would require a Turkish visa. My working assumption would be that for some reason, they want to enter the US without leaving a visa trail. I have no idea what sort of advantage that might provide.
But the cost of a US tourist visa is only $160, and the wait time is 3 days. So why not go into the US consulate in Istanbul, claim your plans have changed, and apply for a visa?
Or just go to a US consulate in China and get a visa. The rules are presumably the same for a Chinese citizen with a Chinese passport either way. To get to the US consul in Turkey would require a Turkish visa. My working assumption would be that for some reason, they want to enter the US without leaving a visa trail. I have no idea what sort of advantage that might provide.
There are probably millions of Chinese citizens who can’t leave China through any official means. They have to sneak out of the country and pay someone to transport them in cargo containers or some other unofficial means of transport.
There are probably millions of Chinese citizens who can’t leave China through any official means. They have to sneak out of the country and pay someone to transport them in cargo containers or some other unofficial means of transport.
To get to the US consul in Turkey would require a Turkish visa.
According to the article, they are going to Ecuador via Istanbul, so presumably they are getting in there somehow.
To get to the US consul in Turkey would require a Turkish visa.
According to the article, they are going to Ecuador via Istanbul, so presumably they are getting in there somehow.
According to the article, they are going to Ecuador via Istanbul, so presumably they are getting in there somehow.
The article says fly to Ecuador via Istanbul. Stay inside the international terminals the entire trip, no visa required. None of the people in the article seem to be the kind of people Charles mentions.
According to the article, they are going to Ecuador via Istanbul, so presumably they are getting in there somehow.
The article says fly to Ecuador via Istanbul. Stay inside the international terminals the entire trip, no visa required. None of the people in the article seem to be the kind of people Charles mentions.
None of the people in the article seem to be the kind of people Charles mentions.
According to one of the LLMs, these Chinese citizens would find it difficult or impossible to legally leave China.
• Businesspeople[People like Jack Ma who the government thinks are getting too big for their pants.].
• Dissidents and activists.
• People who are considered to be a national security risk.
• People who have been convicted of a crime in China.
• People who have been critical of the Chinese government or its policies.
• People with criminal records.
• People with financial debts or owe money to the government or to state-owned companies.
• Religious minorities.
I would add citizens that don’t legally exist because they are the second, third, or more children who were born during the one-child policy and their births were never registered. And people who are being “held hostage” against the “good behavior” of family members already living outside the country.
None of the people in the article seem to be the kind of people Charles mentions.
According to one of the LLMs, these Chinese citizens would find it difficult or impossible to legally leave China.
• Businesspeople[People like Jack Ma who the government thinks are getting too big for their pants.].
• Dissidents and activists.
• People who are considered to be a national security risk.
• People who have been convicted of a crime in China.
• People who have been critical of the Chinese government or its policies.
• People with criminal records.
• People with financial debts or owe money to the government or to state-owned companies.
• Religious minorities.
I would add citizens that don’t legally exist because they are the second, third, or more children who were born during the one-child policy and their births were never registered. And people who are being “held hostage” against the “good behavior” of family members already living outside the country.
I know you aren’t going to listen Charles, but it seems that this would be a particularly problematic topic to probe an LLM, since it is confining itself to primarily English texts, thereby amplifying any biases, especially yours. For example ‘people who don’t legally exist’ probably doesn’t work in a state that has surveillance on the level of China.
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1118105165/surveillance-state-explores-chinas-tech-and-social-media-control-systems
Also, in the aftermath of COVID, I find it hard to imagine that there is a huge number of citizens who ‘don’t legally exist’, in that knowing that they are there is necessary for covid lockdowns. While the ability to hold two contradictory ideas in one’s mind has been lauded, it becomes problematic when you use them as a back and forth to support your own biases.
I know you aren’t going to listen Charles, but it seems that this would be a particularly problematic topic to probe an LLM, since it is confining itself to primarily English texts, thereby amplifying any biases, especially yours. For example ‘people who don’t legally exist’ probably doesn’t work in a state that has surveillance on the level of China.
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1118105165/surveillance-state-explores-chinas-tech-and-social-media-control-systems
Also, in the aftermath of COVID, I find it hard to imagine that there is a huge number of citizens who ‘don’t legally exist’, in that knowing that they are there is necessary for covid lockdowns. While the ability to hold two contradictory ideas in one’s mind has been lauded, it becomes problematic when you use them as a back and forth to support your own biases.
For example ‘people who don’t legally exist’ probably doesn’t work in a state that has surveillance on the level of China.
The LLM didn’t make any reference to this group. But the group does exist though there’s been a drive in recent years to register them.
“The 14.35 million were registered over the past four years. Without official IDs, these citizens would have been previously denied access to education and healthcare benefits, Xinhua reports.
As for why so many went unregistered, one big factor to blame was the country’s one-child policy, which it held for nearly 40 years until this was relaxed in 2015, to allow couples to have two children.”
China just registered 14 million people that never officially existed before: Many of these are women and children.
Unregistered citizens also include children born out of wedlock.
“The consequences of this system are dire. If the child isn’t registered, parents can’t receive insurance coverage for birth-related medical costs or qualify for maternity leave. Unregistered children aren’t allowed to go to public schools or access medical insurance. In adulthood they’re cast to the fringes of society, unable to open a bank account or get married, much less register their own children. In 2021, the Chinese authorities acknowledged that at least 11.6 million more children were born between 2000 and 2010 than previously reported.”
China Will Benefit From Finally ‘Finding’ Its Lost Children: Millions of Chinese are ostracized because they were born out of wedlock. Giving them official recognition will help solve the nation’s birthrate crisis.
For example ‘people who don’t legally exist’ probably doesn’t work in a state that has surveillance on the level of China.
The LLM didn’t make any reference to this group. But the group does exist though there’s been a drive in recent years to register them.
“The 14.35 million were registered over the past four years. Without official IDs, these citizens would have been previously denied access to education and healthcare benefits, Xinhua reports.
As for why so many went unregistered, one big factor to blame was the country’s one-child policy, which it held for nearly 40 years until this was relaxed in 2015, to allow couples to have two children.”
China just registered 14 million people that never officially existed before: Many of these are women and children.
Unregistered citizens also include children born out of wedlock.
“The consequences of this system are dire. If the child isn’t registered, parents can’t receive insurance coverage for birth-related medical costs or qualify for maternity leave. Unregistered children aren’t allowed to go to public schools or access medical insurance. In adulthood they’re cast to the fringes of society, unable to open a bank account or get married, much less register their own children. In 2021, the Chinese authorities acknowledged that at least 11.6 million more children were born between 2000 and 2010 than previously reported.”
China Will Benefit From Finally ‘Finding’ Its Lost Children: Millions of Chinese are ostracized because they were born out of wedlock. Giving them official recognition will help solve the nation’s birthrate crisis.
The LLM didn’t make any reference to this group.
[eyeroll]
You are talking about the 黑孩子 who don’t get registered on the household register. Because the one child policy was rescinded, they now can register (the law was rescinded in 2016). It’s an interesting question of how this all works, but the oscillation between ‘Chinese are invading from Mexico’ and [ed. to add] ‘the Chinese are heartless cause they don’t know how many of them there are’ is neckbreaking [end ed.] , but given that your questions to the LLM are probably biased, you are probably going to get problematic responses. It’s GIGO all the way down.
The LLM didn’t make any reference to this group.
[eyeroll]
You are talking about the 黑孩子 who don’t get registered on the household register. Because the one child policy was rescinded, they now can register (the law was rescinded in 2016). It’s an interesting question of how this all works, but the oscillation between ‘Chinese are invading from Mexico’ and [ed. to add] ‘the Chinese are heartless cause they don’t know how many of them there are’ is neckbreaking [end ed.] , but given that your questions to the LLM are probably biased, you are probably going to get problematic responses. It’s GIGO all the way down.
It’s GIGO all the way down.
Great line, lj!
It’s GIGO all the way down.
Great line, lj!
Most of the people in the Guardian article who were seeking asylum in the US through the southern border were people who were fed up with China’s Zero Covid policy. China has many other policies that commit serious violations of human rights, but it’s an opportunistic flex to try to lump them all together in this particular story. That’s the same basic move as pivoting from mention of China’s human rights violations to starting to list the problematic policies enacted by the US. It’s true, but it distracts from efforts to try to understand the thing that started the conversation. IOW, it’s a form of threadjacking.
LLMs don’t have any ability to notice a threadjack. They just see the pattern and note the prevalence, and adopt it as a convention of the genre.
Most of the people in the Guardian article who were seeking asylum in the US through the southern border were people who were fed up with China’s Zero Covid policy. China has many other policies that commit serious violations of human rights, but it’s an opportunistic flex to try to lump them all together in this particular story. That’s the same basic move as pivoting from mention of China’s human rights violations to starting to list the problematic policies enacted by the US. It’s true, but it distracts from efforts to try to understand the thing that started the conversation. IOW, it’s a form of threadjacking.
LLMs don’t have any ability to notice a threadjack. They just see the pattern and note the prevalence, and adopt it as a convention of the genre.
I don’t mind people bringing up topics they want to discuss, every thread here is basically an open thread. I suppose Charles wants to talk about China, and has been patiently waiting for the topic to move to somewhere, anywhere closer to China so he could talk about the Chinese invasion. And I appreciate that he’s interested in China. What I don’t appreciate is the obvious lack of thought when tossing this up, cause it looks like he’s only interested in China to confirm his own biases. As nous points out, this is where LLM is going to screw us, cause it will answer the question with no understanding of the biases of the questioner.
I don’t mind people bringing up topics they want to discuss, every thread here is basically an open thread. I suppose Charles wants to talk about China, and has been patiently waiting for the topic to move to somewhere, anywhere closer to China so he could talk about the Chinese invasion. And I appreciate that he’s interested in China. What I don’t appreciate is the obvious lack of thought when tossing this up, cause it looks like he’s only interested in China to confirm his own biases. As nous points out, this is where LLM is going to screw us, cause it will answer the question with no understanding of the biases of the questioner.
The reference to US “inaction” in Yemen is dishonest and contemptible — our actions were precisely the problem—but that aside, Fiona Hill apparently sees the world’s reaction to the Ukraine War just as Robert Wright did in my link last week. They don’t like the invasion and they see the US as hypocritical.
https://lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-lecture-by-fiona-hill/
The reference to US “inaction” in Yemen is dishonest and contemptible — our actions were precisely the problem—but that aside, Fiona Hill apparently sees the world’s reaction to the Ukraine War just as Robert Wright did in my link last week. They don’t like the invasion and they see the US as hypocritical.
https://lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-lecture-by-fiona-hill/
They don’t like the invasion and they see the US as hypocritical.
If someone reacts differently, depending on who is acting, sure that’s hypocritical.
On the other hand, does the fact that they reacted otherwise in other cases irretrievably taint their efforts when they do the right thing? To the point that their help should be rejected, or even that others should refuse to do the right thing, just because of their support?
Perhaps I have been misreading you. But the latter seems to be where you come down rather regularly.
They don’t like the invasion and they see the US as hypocritical.
If someone reacts differently, depending on who is acting, sure that’s hypocritical.
On the other hand, does the fact that they reacted otherwise in other cases irretrievably taint their efforts when they do the right thing? To the point that their help should be rejected, or even that others should refuse to do the right thing, just because of their support?
Perhaps I have been misreading you. But the latter seems to be where you come down rather regularly.
Todays reading on the American political scene:
https://digbysblog.net/2023/05/30/germane-to-our-times/
Things which are old enough become new again.
Todays reading on the American political scene:
https://digbysblog.net/2023/05/30/germane-to-our-times/
Things which are old enough become new again.
Donald – the Fiona Hill piece says a lot about attitudes and narratives, and explains people’s willingness to write off the conflict in Ukraine as another Cold War proxy conflict. What I don’t see from her or from the other experts who are analyzing the global political climate is any forward-looking suggestion of what can, feasibly, be done to change our trajectory towards collapse.
I don’t think that Russia *is* entirely seeing this as a resumption of the old imperial order and the 20th C. Great Powers struggles. I think they are very much looking at this as the opening of the post-climate-tipping-point international order and seeing an opportunity to get the jump on the fickle and short-sighted liberal democracies.
I do think that Russia is correct to see the US as a fragile and breakable superpower. I don’t see the US being able to hold on to its influence once climate change really comes home to roost. The fracture lines are too visible already to have any faith in a non-authoritarian future for us, and any authoritarian future for us will be built out of the socially conservative groups. Same may be true of collective Europe.
But again, I don’t see much of any framework emerging from any of the think tanks and foreign policy people that takes us from where we are to a future global order that avoids the chaos of a New Migration Era redo of the political maps.
I really would love to see a framework, though, and would be happy to support any criticism that gets beyond scolding and recrimination to an actual path forward.
Donald – the Fiona Hill piece says a lot about attitudes and narratives, and explains people’s willingness to write off the conflict in Ukraine as another Cold War proxy conflict. What I don’t see from her or from the other experts who are analyzing the global political climate is any forward-looking suggestion of what can, feasibly, be done to change our trajectory towards collapse.
I don’t think that Russia *is* entirely seeing this as a resumption of the old imperial order and the 20th C. Great Powers struggles. I think they are very much looking at this as the opening of the post-climate-tipping-point international order and seeing an opportunity to get the jump on the fickle and short-sighted liberal democracies.
I do think that Russia is correct to see the US as a fragile and breakable superpower. I don’t see the US being able to hold on to its influence once climate change really comes home to roost. The fracture lines are too visible already to have any faith in a non-authoritarian future for us, and any authoritarian future for us will be built out of the socially conservative groups. Same may be true of collective Europe.
But again, I don’t see much of any framework emerging from any of the think tanks and foreign policy people that takes us from where we are to a future global order that avoids the chaos of a New Migration Era redo of the political maps.
I really would love to see a framework, though, and would be happy to support any criticism that gets beyond scolding and recrimination to an actual path forward.
I mentione that I’ve really gone off watching sports, particularly football/soccer. ISTM that all the emphasis on sportswashing, with the Saudis and UAE investment in the game, is linked to Yemen. I realize this may sound like a 4 rail bank shot, but I’ll put this down as a marker and maybe try and develop a post later.
A lot of discussion centers around efforts to control those Red Sea waterways that lie next to Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab strait. The US disengagement with the region, along with the general move to get away from fossil fuels, is imo what led the Saudis and UAE moves in the area, which was more likely to be influenced by Iran. Furthermore, the Chinese Belt and Road initiative is focussed on precisely this area, which is why you see Chinese attempts to broker a peace deal.
Re China, this is a good piece from 2018, pre pandemic
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep20161?seq=4
And here are two pieces about Chinese recent attempts, which also include Iran-Saudi rapproachment
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/yemen-looms-key-test-chinas-new-gulf-diplomacy
https://theconversation.com/can-china-broker-peace-in-yemen-and-further-beijings-middle-east-strategy-in-the-process-204724
I think all of this underlines American irrelevance and places US actions as outgrowths of a desire to try and prevent China to become a power broker.
The newest wildcard in all this is the elections in Turkey. There was a lot of publicity for the use of Turkish drones by the Ukraine, but after Erdogan met with Putin for a gas deal, they disappeared. In addition, Erdogan has to deal with Syrian refugees and has played up Islamist credentials, and I think Iran was the first to congratulate Erdogan on reelection. Erdogan’s reelection was by a thin margin, so I wonder what he will do to keep power.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Turkey-elections/Erdogan-leaned-into-defense-religion-to-win-tight-Turkish-election
Thinking about it this way has me think that the issue for me (at least in discussions here) is in thinking of the US place in the world. It is a bit like the metaphor of the coconut shell monkey trap, where the monkey reaches in an hollowed out coconut shell to grab a handful of rice and when it makes a fist, it can’t escape. As long as the first principle of the US is that we can’t let the Chinese get ahead of us, we can’t really do anything. The poor reporting on the Yemen conflict is based on an idea of the centrality of the US to global politics. As long as that is there, everything else is going to be subservient to that.
This also is in line with my comments about how people are going to talk about what they want to talk about, which includes me.
I mentione that I’ve really gone off watching sports, particularly football/soccer. ISTM that all the emphasis on sportswashing, with the Saudis and UAE investment in the game, is linked to Yemen. I realize this may sound like a 4 rail bank shot, but I’ll put this down as a marker and maybe try and develop a post later.
A lot of discussion centers around efforts to control those Red Sea waterways that lie next to Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab strait. The US disengagement with the region, along with the general move to get away from fossil fuels, is imo what led the Saudis and UAE moves in the area, which was more likely to be influenced by Iran. Furthermore, the Chinese Belt and Road initiative is focussed on precisely this area, which is why you see Chinese attempts to broker a peace deal.
Re China, this is a good piece from 2018, pre pandemic
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep20161?seq=4
And here are two pieces about Chinese recent attempts, which also include Iran-Saudi rapproachment
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/yemen-looms-key-test-chinas-new-gulf-diplomacy
https://theconversation.com/can-china-broker-peace-in-yemen-and-further-beijings-middle-east-strategy-in-the-process-204724
I think all of this underlines American irrelevance and places US actions as outgrowths of a desire to try and prevent China to become a power broker.
The newest wildcard in all this is the elections in Turkey. There was a lot of publicity for the use of Turkish drones by the Ukraine, but after Erdogan met with Putin for a gas deal, they disappeared. In addition, Erdogan has to deal with Syrian refugees and has played up Islamist credentials, and I think Iran was the first to congratulate Erdogan on reelection. Erdogan’s reelection was by a thin margin, so I wonder what he will do to keep power.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Turkey-elections/Erdogan-leaned-into-defense-religion-to-win-tight-Turkish-election
Thinking about it this way has me think that the issue for me (at least in discussions here) is in thinking of the US place in the world. It is a bit like the metaphor of the coconut shell monkey trap, where the monkey reaches in an hollowed out coconut shell to grab a handful of rice and when it makes a fist, it can’t escape. As long as the first principle of the US is that we can’t let the Chinese get ahead of us, we can’t really do anything. The poor reporting on the Yemen conflict is based on an idea of the centrality of the US to global politics. As long as that is there, everything else is going to be subservient to that.
This also is in line with my comments about how people are going to talk about what they want to talk about, which includes me.
I tend to think of climate change as likely to prompt a period of punctuated equilibrium – both for species evolution (a la Stephen Jay Gould) and for political evolution (which I have mentioned before when thinking about what might come after liberal democracy if the liberal democracies fail force a consensus on climate issues).
I was getting all set to try to see if anyone was predicting that climate change would have a greater political consequence than the nuclear arms race, but then realized that this is a both/and situation. Climate change has been described as a “vulnerability multiplier” and that goes for the risk of nuclear war just as much as it does for other sorts of vulnerability.
Oy.
I tend to think of climate change as likely to prompt a period of punctuated equilibrium – both for species evolution (a la Stephen Jay Gould) and for political evolution (which I have mentioned before when thinking about what might come after liberal democracy if the liberal democracies fail force a consensus on climate issues).
I was getting all set to try to see if anyone was predicting that climate change would have a greater political consequence than the nuclear arms race, but then realized that this is a both/and situation. Climate change has been described as a “vulnerability multiplier” and that goes for the risk of nuclear war just as much as it does for other sorts of vulnerability.
Oy.
As long as the first principle of the US is that we can’t let the Chinese get ahead of us, we can’t really do anything.
I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Pretty much the entire (political) rationale for the US space program* was to get back ahead of the Russians post Sputnik.**
Staying ahead of China wouldn’t be a simple matter of technology, of course. (Although if China succeeds in its plan to put men on the moon by 2030, that may result in another technology-boosting space race.) But it will be interesting to see how it plays out in other areas.
I’m guessing that the isolationist tendency in some circles on the right will suffer the same hammering politically as a similar tendency on the left did half a century ago. To my mind, it is simply a recognition of reality in today’s world. Which may be why the far right resists it.
* All the technology that flowed from that, from velcro to bigger and faster computers, was an unintended bonus. Unintended by the politicians anyway.
** Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
As long as the first principle of the US is that we can’t let the Chinese get ahead of us, we can’t really do anything.
I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Pretty much the entire (political) rationale for the US space program* was to get back ahead of the Russians post Sputnik.**
Staying ahead of China wouldn’t be a simple matter of technology, of course. (Although if China succeeds in its plan to put men on the moon by 2030, that may result in another technology-boosting space race.) But it will be interesting to see how it plays out in other areas.
I’m guessing that the isolationist tendency in some circles on the right will suffer the same hammering politically as a similar tendency on the left did half a century ago. To my mind, it is simply a recognition of reality in today’s world. Which may be why the far right resists it.
* All the technology that flowed from that, from velcro to bigger and faster computers, was an unintended bonus. Unintended by the politicians anyway.
** Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
I was getting all set to try to see if anyone was predicting that climate change would have a greater political consequence than the nuclear arms race, but then realized that this is a both/and situation.
I suspect not. Simply because there isn’t another nation visibly competing with us, nor an obvious threat it they beat us (at any particular facet of dealing with it). That is, there’s no race against a human opponent, just against nature.
The political consequences are more likely to result from, for example, Florida losing population, and thus national political clout, due to severely reduced land area. That and, in the states in the South East which are expected to lose the most (Florida being only the most extreme example), how well or badly the state governments deal with it.
I was getting all set to try to see if anyone was predicting that climate change would have a greater political consequence than the nuclear arms race, but then realized that this is a both/and situation.
I suspect not. Simply because there isn’t another nation visibly competing with us, nor an obvious threat it they beat us (at any particular facet of dealing with it). That is, there’s no race against a human opponent, just against nature.
The political consequences are more likely to result from, for example, Florida losing population, and thus national political clout, due to severely reduced land area. That and, in the states in the South East which are expected to lose the most (Florida being only the most extreme example), how well or badly the state governments deal with it.
‘We can’t do anything’ was in the context of Yemen. We could do a lot, renewable energy, climate mitigation, etc etc. Though ‘we can’t’ might be better said as ‘what we do won’t really matter.’
‘We can’t do anything’ was in the context of Yemen. We could do a lot, renewable energy, climate mitigation, etc etc. Though ‘we can’t’ might be better said as ‘what we do won’t really matter.’
Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
I was up and about with food poisoning. So I spent some time between bouts watching Sputnik.
Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
I was up and about with food poisoning. So I spent some time between bouts watching Sputnik.
I suspect not. Simply because there isn’t another nation visibly competing with us, nor an obvious threat it they beat us (at any particular facet of dealing with it). That is, there’s no race against a human opponent, just against nature.
Sorry, let me say more of what I was thinking. I may not have explained enough.
I was thinking about the way that political institutions have to evolve under the pressure of intense social change, and thinking about how climate change was going to usher in a huge wave of human migration that is going to challenge all our political institutions. The US is already freaking out about 200,000 migrants at our southern border, but that could rise into the millions as Central America becomes less habitable. That’s going to be a lot more difficult to deal with than just some Floridians seeking to move.
We are talking Migration Era sorts of population shifts. Millions on the move. The Syrian crisis is barely a blip in comparison.
This combined with a domestic relocation that is going to rival the Dust Bowl.
The US is not going to do well with this sort of pressure. We are barely hanging on right now. We’ve talked here at length about whether we will partition, but we could as well succumb to authoritarianism, or some combination of both.
There is no telling, either, how these same pressures are going to transform Europe, but Russia is sitting on land that will be more productive, and has vast energy reserves, and they are already an authoritarian state. With nukes.
That’s what I’m thinking.
Liberal democratic nation states are going to be hard pressed to deal with this level of crisis without resorting to martial law, and holding it together is going to take a lot of attention and resources.
We’re going to need a lot of new maps, I think.
I suspect not. Simply because there isn’t another nation visibly competing with us, nor an obvious threat it they beat us (at any particular facet of dealing with it). That is, there’s no race against a human opponent, just against nature.
Sorry, let me say more of what I was thinking. I may not have explained enough.
I was thinking about the way that political institutions have to evolve under the pressure of intense social change, and thinking about how climate change was going to usher in a huge wave of human migration that is going to challenge all our political institutions. The US is already freaking out about 200,000 migrants at our southern border, but that could rise into the millions as Central America becomes less habitable. That’s going to be a lot more difficult to deal with than just some Floridians seeking to move.
We are talking Migration Era sorts of population shifts. Millions on the move. The Syrian crisis is barely a blip in comparison.
This combined with a domestic relocation that is going to rival the Dust Bowl.
The US is not going to do well with this sort of pressure. We are barely hanging on right now. We’ve talked here at length about whether we will partition, but we could as well succumb to authoritarianism, or some combination of both.
There is no telling, either, how these same pressures are going to transform Europe, but Russia is sitting on land that will be more productive, and has vast energy reserves, and they are already an authoritarian state. With nukes.
That’s what I’m thinking.
Liberal democratic nation states are going to be hard pressed to deal with this level of crisis without resorting to martial law, and holding it together is going to take a lot of attention and resources.
We’re going to need a lot of new maps, I think.
I would think China is at risk for dislocations that would put a crimp in external ambitions, but haven’t looked at specifics on coastal effects there.
I would think China is at risk for dislocations that would put a crimp in external ambitions, but haven’t looked at specifics on coastal effects there.
There is no telling, either, how these same pressures are going to transform Europe, but Russia is sitting on land that will be more productive, and has vast energy reserves, and they are already an authoritarian state. With nukes.
Russia is going to get a vast amount of more habitable land. And they are close to places like South Asia** which have huge populations compared to Latin America. And which are going to be losing a whole lot of habitable land. Bangladesh is far the worse case, but not the only one. So they’re looking at tens of millions to our millions — with lots less experience at dealing with immigrants than we have.
Russia is already an authoritarian state. But an incompetently run one, which means their chances of doing anything like effectively closing their border are tiny. So they are going to see far, far greater immigration than we are. Even extreme measures, say nuking Bangladesh to try to eliminate the source, aren’t going to stop the flood. After all, there’s also India and Pakistan.
** Not to mention the exodus from Africa which is already underway. All things considered, it’s probably easier to get to, and into, Russia than Western Europe.
There is no telling, either, how these same pressures are going to transform Europe, but Russia is sitting on land that will be more productive, and has vast energy reserves, and they are already an authoritarian state. With nukes.
Russia is going to get a vast amount of more habitable land. And they are close to places like South Asia** which have huge populations compared to Latin America. And which are going to be losing a whole lot of habitable land. Bangladesh is far the worse case, but not the only one. So they’re looking at tens of millions to our millions — with lots less experience at dealing with immigrants than we have.
Russia is already an authoritarian state. But an incompetently run one, which means their chances of doing anything like effectively closing their border are tiny. So they are going to see far, far greater immigration than we are. Even extreme measures, say nuking Bangladesh to try to eliminate the source, aren’t going to stop the flood. After all, there’s also India and Pakistan.
** Not to mention the exodus from Africa which is already underway. All things considered, it’s probably easier to get to, and into, Russia than Western Europe.
** Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
I can. My dad had a huge pair of binoculars on a stand, that had once been on a ship. The neighbors came over to look through them too. One of the neighbors was all excited over something that turned out to be an airplane, and in my memory, at least, we were all a little deflated by how unspectacular the sight of Sputnik actually was.
There came a point in, I think, the mid-eighties when I was camping out with some friends on Washington Island in Door County, Wisconsin, and we saw lots of those tiny moving dots, and we spent some time stargazing before going to sleep. One of the friends I was with had a degree in aero and astro, and she said that there were probably a couple thousand satellites up there by then. That seemed like a lot at the time…
This site has some info about the numbers today.
** Am I the only one here who can remember going out one evening to watch Sputnik 1 pass overhead?
I can. My dad had a huge pair of binoculars on a stand, that had once been on a ship. The neighbors came over to look through them too. One of the neighbors was all excited over something that turned out to be an airplane, and in my memory, at least, we were all a little deflated by how unspectacular the sight of Sputnik actually was.
There came a point in, I think, the mid-eighties when I was camping out with some friends on Washington Island in Door County, Wisconsin, and we saw lots of those tiny moving dots, and we spent some time stargazing before going to sleep. One of the friends I was with had a degree in aero and astro, and she said that there were probably a couple thousand satellites up there by then. That seemed like a lot at the time…
This site has some info about the numbers today.
Speaking of satellites, for some reason, this seems like an idea only Japanese might come up with.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55463366
The Asahi Shimbun lists the possible woods as
Japanese big-leaf magnolia, mountain cherry and Erman’s birch
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14439277
And a paywalled article says that magnolia will get the nod.
Speaking of satellites, for some reason, this seems like an idea only Japanese might come up with.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55463366
The Asahi Shimbun lists the possible woods as
Japanese big-leaf magnolia, mountain cherry and Erman’s birch
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14439277
And a paywalled article says that magnolia will get the nod.
lj, thanks, that’s a fun story — the satellites made of wood.
lj, thanks, that’s a fun story — the satellites made of wood.
the satellites made of wood.
I can see how this would make them more likely to burn up in the atmosphere on reentry. Which at least reduces the chances of damage if and when they hit the ground.
What I cannot see is how this would achieve the stated purpose of dealing with the problem of “releasing harmful substances into the atmosphere.” The shells of the satellites aren’t the source of those harmful substances. It’s the electronics, etc. inside. And those will not be, cannot be, made of wood.
I’m also not quite seeing how making the satellites of wood would reduce the accumulation of junk in orbit. Steel, aluminum, or wood — it still takes something to reduce the velocity below orbital velocity in order to get it out of orbit.
the satellites made of wood.
I can see how this would make them more likely to burn up in the atmosphere on reentry. Which at least reduces the chances of damage if and when they hit the ground.
What I cannot see is how this would achieve the stated purpose of dealing with the problem of “releasing harmful substances into the atmosphere.” The shells of the satellites aren’t the source of those harmful substances. It’s the electronics, etc. inside. And those will not be, cannot be, made of wood.
I’m also not quite seeing how making the satellites of wood would reduce the accumulation of junk in orbit. Steel, aluminum, or wood — it still takes something to reduce the velocity below orbital velocity in order to get it out of orbit.
From the article:
I know nothing about satellites, but the implication, to me, is that at least some of the materials that might otherwise linger or crash into the earth will burn up instead, with less harmful substances released. The article doesn’t clarify the partialness of it, though.
From the article:
I know nothing about satellites, but the implication, to me, is that at least some of the materials that might otherwise linger or crash into the earth will burn up instead, with less harmful substances released. The article doesn’t clarify the partialness of it, though.
Getting hit in orbit by a chunk of metal or a chunk of wood isn’t very different, when that chunk is moving at 10km/s, so the space-junk issue isn’t really solved.
BUT, imagine a far-future civilization coming across a wooden satellite, and wondering who put it there.
Loki approves.
Getting hit in orbit by a chunk of metal or a chunk of wood isn’t very different, when that chunk is moving at 10km/s, so the space-junk issue isn’t really solved.
BUT, imagine a far-future civilization coming across a wooden satellite, and wondering who put it there.
Loki approves.
I can see how this would make them more likely to burn up in the atmosphere on reentry. Which at least reduces the chances of damage if and when they hit the ground.
When I put on my old systems analyst hat, they seem to have focused on the problems that occur after the satellite is in orbit. I would have started with the problems that might occur before the satellite reaches orbit: 3G or more acceleration, lots of vibration, has to meet the physical constraints of the satellite separation and deployment systems.
I can see how this would make them more likely to burn up in the atmosphere on reentry. Which at least reduces the chances of damage if and when they hit the ground.
When I put on my old systems analyst hat, they seem to have focused on the problems that occur after the satellite is in orbit. I would have started with the problems that might occur before the satellite reaches orbit: 3G or more acceleration, lots of vibration, has to meet the physical constraints of the satellite separation and deployment systems.
Meanwhile closer to home (to most here) than Ukraine:
The first legal step towards corporate suffrage has been made:
https://jensorensen.com/2023/05/31/corporations-voting-elections-cartoon/
Meanwhile closer to home (to most here) than Ukraine:
The first legal step towards corporate suffrage has been made:
https://jensorensen.com/2023/05/31/corporations-voting-elections-cartoon/
Hartmut — one of the things I find most interesting about this (if the link’s info is all accurate) is that it implies that people who own property in the town but do not live there, and who are NOT incorporated, aren’t part of this proposal.
As someone who lives in (reportedly) the state with the highest percentage of vacation homes of any state in the US, I have often thought that non-resident property owners have some reason to wish they could have a say in town business. I don’t think they *should,” but it’s a complicated topic. I’ve also known people who, because of residency and citizenship complexities, were eligible to vote in two countries. This doesn’t really seem “fair” to me either.
We have a local election coming up (annual town meeting is July 13), and one of the select board candidates has signs that say “Local family, local values.” I think I’ve already mentioned this here, but IMHO these are dogwhistles. By definition, if you are eligible to vote you are “local” — whether you have lived here for a day or two or your family has been here for generations. And wtf are “local values”? I know something about this guy, and his values are not mine.
But I think his “local” emphasis has to do in part with a fear and dislike of newcomers, and that’s not a simple topic either.
If my town had been invaded by incomers hoping to make it the beginning of a libertarian paradise, I would be upset that they had the right to vote to reshape the town to their imaginings…..
Nevertheless, I will be voting for the other guy.
Hartmut — one of the things I find most interesting about this (if the link’s info is all accurate) is that it implies that people who own property in the town but do not live there, and who are NOT incorporated, aren’t part of this proposal.
As someone who lives in (reportedly) the state with the highest percentage of vacation homes of any state in the US, I have often thought that non-resident property owners have some reason to wish they could have a say in town business. I don’t think they *should,” but it’s a complicated topic. I’ve also known people who, because of residency and citizenship complexities, were eligible to vote in two countries. This doesn’t really seem “fair” to me either.
We have a local election coming up (annual town meeting is July 13), and one of the select board candidates has signs that say “Local family, local values.” I think I’ve already mentioned this here, but IMHO these are dogwhistles. By definition, if you are eligible to vote you are “local” — whether you have lived here for a day or two or your family has been here for generations. And wtf are “local values”? I know something about this guy, and his values are not mine.
But I think his “local” emphasis has to do in part with a fear and dislike of newcomers, and that’s not a simple topic either.
If my town had been invaded by incomers hoping to make it the beginning of a libertarian paradise, I would be upset that they had the right to vote to reshape the town to their imaginings…..
Nevertheless, I will be voting for the other guy.
If my town had been invaded by incomers hoping to make it the beginning of a libertarian paradise, I would be upset that they had the right to vote to reshape the town to their imaginings…
I keep thinking that it would be feasible, especially with the increased availability of remote work, to relocate to Wyoming the (relatively) small number of people necessary to radically change its political profile.
Need to keep the plan quiet, of course, to avoid countermeasures like zoning restrictions to block housing for them. But still, not as difficult as, for example, trying to turn Texas purple.
If my town had been invaded by incomers hoping to make it the beginning of a libertarian paradise, I would be upset that they had the right to vote to reshape the town to their imaginings…
I keep thinking that it would be feasible, especially with the increased availability of remote work, to relocate to Wyoming the (relatively) small number of people necessary to radically change its political profile.
Need to keep the plan quiet, of course, to avoid countermeasures like zoning restrictions to block housing for them. But still, not as difficult as, for example, trying to turn Texas purple.
Fun times:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjvk97/eating-disorder-helpline-disables-chatbot-for-harmful-responses-after-firing-human-staff
Fun times:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjvk97/eating-disorder-helpline-disables-chatbot-for-harmful-responses-after-firing-human-staff
In England it’s legal to register in two different places, and to vote in local elections in both of them.
In England it’s legal to register in two different places, and to vote in local elections in both of them.
Pro Bono: but not more than two?
Pro Bono: but not more than two?
Need to keep the plan quiet, of course, to avoid countermeasures like zoning restrictions to block housing for them.
Such plans are going to trip up on the logistics problems. Say you need 100,000 households to move into the state. Cheyenne, the capital and largest city, is currently 27,000 households. This is not something you can hide. Where are they going to live? How long will it take to build the housing there? Infrastructure like sewer and water treatment? Remote work is all well and good if you have high-speed data and access to a large airport. Jackson Hole is the largest airport in the state, handles 500,000 enplanements per year, a large part of which are seasonal tourists. Casper is the second largest, with 70,000. You can fly commercially from Casper to either Denver or Salt Lake City.
This is a decade-long project, quite possibly longer.
Need to keep the plan quiet, of course, to avoid countermeasures like zoning restrictions to block housing for them.
Such plans are going to trip up on the logistics problems. Say you need 100,000 households to move into the state. Cheyenne, the capital and largest city, is currently 27,000 households. This is not something you can hide. Where are they going to live? How long will it take to build the housing there? Infrastructure like sewer and water treatment? Remote work is all well and good if you have high-speed data and access to a large airport. Jackson Hole is the largest airport in the state, handles 500,000 enplanements per year, a large part of which are seasonal tourists. Casper is the second largest, with 70,000. You can fly commercially from Casper to either Denver or Salt Lake City.
This is a decade-long project, quite possibly longer.
Yeah, and Jackson is not going to be feasible because the super rich have put conservation easements on all the developable land. The working class people that keep the lights on there have to commute in from West Yellowstone or from the next county over.
You’d have to pick somewhere along I-80 (Rock Springs, Laramie, Cheyenne), I think, and it would be a long term project. I-25 only has Cheyenne/Casper. Sheraton is small and isn’t a waypoint to anywhere other than Billings.
It might be easier to leverage Montana than Wyoming. It would take more people, but there are bigger cities to work with and more universities to draw from.
Yeah, and Jackson is not going to be feasible because the super rich have put conservation easements on all the developable land. The working class people that keep the lights on there have to commute in from West Yellowstone or from the next county over.
You’d have to pick somewhere along I-80 (Rock Springs, Laramie, Cheyenne), I think, and it would be a long term project. I-25 only has Cheyenne/Casper. Sheraton is small and isn’t a waypoint to anywhere other than Billings.
It might be easier to leverage Montana than Wyoming. It would take more people, but there are bigger cities to work with and more universities to draw from.
I have never thought this notion made any sense. Whether it’s marginally more or less feasible than changing how the Senate and the Electoral College work is a tempting question, but useless, because I don’t think any of them are going to happen.
Still, it sure seems like Californians should be up in arms about the relative weight of their votes vs Wyoming’s in relation to the Senate (68 to 1) and Congress overall (3.72 to 1 when last I checked).
I have never thought this notion made any sense. Whether it’s marginally more or less feasible than changing how the Senate and the Electoral College work is a tempting question, but useless, because I don’t think any of them are going to happen.
Still, it sure seems like Californians should be up in arms about the relative weight of their votes vs Wyoming’s in relation to the Senate (68 to 1) and Congress overall (3.72 to 1 when last I checked).
but not more than two?
There’s no limit as such. You’re supposed to spend a significant amount of time where you register.
but not more than two?
There’s no limit as such. You’re supposed to spend a significant amount of time where you register.
I always felt that (Observer Columnist) Nick Cohen had some serious issues (all that relentless vitriol) and this explains a lot:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/world/europe/financial-times-nick-cohen-guardian.html
But what’s worse is, how the Guardian Group turned a blind eye all those years, the FT buried it and most of the UK press now ignores it – so much so that it has to be published in the NYT.
I always felt that (Observer Columnist) Nick Cohen had some serious issues (all that relentless vitriol) and this explains a lot:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/world/europe/financial-times-nick-cohen-guardian.html
But what’s worse is, how the Guardian Group turned a blind eye all those years, the FT buried it and most of the UK press now ignores it – so much so that it has to be published in the NYT.
From novakant’s link:
There’s a lot more like that. It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
From novakant’s link:
There’s a lot more like that. It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
When I read about men behaving like this it’s like it’s another world.
I can’t imagine any of the men I’m acquainted with acting like this. And, if one did, I can’t believe anyone I know would know and remain silent. Perhaps I am just oblivious, but….
I have known a couple of what I would consider real scumbags. But this kind of stuff is just alien.
It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
When I read about men behaving like this it’s like it’s another world.
I can’t imagine any of the men I’m acquainted with acting like this. And, if one did, I can’t believe anyone I know would know and remain silent. Perhaps I am just oblivious, but….
I have known a couple of what I would consider real scumbags. But this kind of stuff is just alien.
wj — On the one hand and despite everything the news throws at us, I still think most people are decent and try to be more or less decent to other people. (Making allowances for lack of imagination on all our parts about what other people are experiencing.)
On the other hand, hypocrisy is as common a human failing as there is.
The saga of Eliot Cutler in Maine is a case in point (sorry about the bare links):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Cutler
https://wgme.com/news/local/eliot-cutler-to-begin-jail-sentence-for-child-porn-charges-9-months-pleading-guilty-child-pornography-videos-sexually-abused-maine-state-police-cyber-crime
First of all, I can’t imagine (to quote you! but I mean it for myself as well!) this particular sick twisting of sexuality, if you can even call it that. Lusting after another adult and getting a little lost in it, okay. But children?
Secondly, how on earth could Cutler imagine he wasn’t going to get caught! Arrogance accounts for a lot of both the crime and the belief that he was untouchable, I suppose. Also…lack of imagination on the part of a wealthy, powerful, well-known guy — arrogant enough to run for governor a second time after being widely seen as a spoiler the first time…
wj — On the one hand and despite everything the news throws at us, I still think most people are decent and try to be more or less decent to other people. (Making allowances for lack of imagination on all our parts about what other people are experiencing.)
On the other hand, hypocrisy is as common a human failing as there is.
The saga of Eliot Cutler in Maine is a case in point (sorry about the bare links):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Cutler
https://wgme.com/news/local/eliot-cutler-to-begin-jail-sentence-for-child-porn-charges-9-months-pleading-guilty-child-pornography-videos-sexually-abused-maine-state-police-cyber-crime
First of all, I can’t imagine (to quote you! but I mean it for myself as well!) this particular sick twisting of sexuality, if you can even call it that. Lusting after another adult and getting a little lost in it, okay. But children?
Secondly, how on earth could Cutler imagine he wasn’t going to get caught! Arrogance accounts for a lot of both the crime and the belief that he was untouchable, I suppose. Also…lack of imagination on the part of a wealthy, powerful, well-known guy — arrogant enough to run for governor a second time after being widely seen as a spoiler the first time…
Secondly, how on earth could Cutler imagine he wasn’t going to get caught!
I can see how he might not be found to merely possess pornography. At least during his lifetime.
Since he wss apparently caught due to his downloading it, I would hazard a guess that he was simply clueless about the ability of someone else to determine who had downloaded something. I suspect that it is not uncommon for those not in IT (specifically Baby Boomers like Carter) to imagine downloads as something like broadcast TV: nobody knows what channel you were turned in to.
Secondly, how on earth could Cutler imagine he wasn’t going to get caught!
I can see how he might not be found to merely possess pornography. At least during his lifetime.
Since he wss apparently caught due to his downloading it, I would hazard a guess that he was simply clueless about the ability of someone else to determine who had downloaded something. I suspect that it is not uncommon for those not in IT (specifically Baby Boomers like Carter) to imagine downloads as something like broadcast TV: nobody knows what channel you were turned in to.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing. Or, rather, that somewhere in the ol’ lizard brain we have a tangle of sex and power stuff bumping into each other in complex and irrational ways.
Damn, now I’m back meditating upon Plato’s Phaedrus, and the myth of the chariot.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing. Or, rather, that somewhere in the ol’ lizard brain we have a tangle of sex and power stuff bumping into each other in complex and irrational ways.
Damn, now I’m back meditating upon Plato’s Phaedrus, and the myth of the chariot.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing.
I see it as a power plus immunity thing. (Or, I suppose, an immunity because of power thing. But the immunity part is critical.) See TFG’s “They’ll let you” comment . . . while being recorded. The recording doesn’t matter because, he believes, even those he doesn’t have power over directly don’t have the ability to do anything about it.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing.
I see it as a power plus immunity thing. (Or, I suppose, an immunity because of power thing. But the immunity part is critical.) See TFG’s “They’ll let you” comment . . . while being recorded. The recording doesn’t matter because, he believes, even those he doesn’t have power over directly don’t have the ability to do anything about it.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing. Or, rather, that somewhere in the ol’ lizard brain we have a tangle of sex and power stuff bumping into each other in complex and irrational ways.
Absolutely.
Sex can get entangled in a lot of other things. Maybe all of them. I have been one degree of separation away from a story involving the entwinement of sex with violence — scary stuff.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing. Or, rather, that somewhere in the ol’ lizard brain we have a tangle of sex and power stuff bumping into each other in complex and irrational ways.
Absolutely.
Sex can get entangled in a lot of other things. Maybe all of them. I have been one degree of separation away from a story involving the entwinement of sex with violence — scary stuff.
It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
Every young woman I know (and I’ve asked several) has received at least one and usually more than one dick pics from either complete strangers or mere acquaintances. And nobody I know says they are anything other than grossed out by them. If men think they are a turn-on for women, it is a truly gigantic narcissistic delusion. But maybe it is also something like the gratification obtained by flashers: the ability to impose yourself on women whether willing or unwilling. Which of course takes us back to the entanglement with power.
It’s amazing that so many men never doubt that women are as obsessed with their penises as they are.
Every young woman I know (and I’ve asked several) has received at least one and usually more than one dick pics from either complete strangers or mere acquaintances. And nobody I know says they are anything other than grossed out by them. If men think they are a turn-on for women, it is a truly gigantic narcissistic delusion. But maybe it is also something like the gratification obtained by flashers: the ability to impose yourself on women whether willing or unwilling. Which of course takes us back to the entanglement with power.
Judge Robert Murray said at Cutler’s sentencing that the average sentence for possession of child pornography is six months
This, from Janie’s second link, shocked me rather. Cutler had 80,000 images of child pornography. Our maxiumum sentence for possession (as opposed to possession and distribution) is maximum 5 years, and I would be quite surprised to find the average sentence (which I cannot discover) was less than a matter of years, rather than months.
Judge Robert Murray said at Cutler’s sentencing that the average sentence for possession of child pornography is six months
This, from Janie’s second link, shocked me rather. Cutler had 80,000 images of child pornography. Our maxiumum sentence for possession (as opposed to possession and distribution) is maximum 5 years, and I would be quite surprised to find the average sentence (which I cannot discover) was less than a matter of years, rather than months.
Apologies, my usual (even if imperfect) proof reader seems to be MIA
Apologies, my usual (even if imperfect) proof reader seems to be MIA
GftNC — there was an outcry over Cutler’s sentence, which the the judge had approved the result of a plea agreement. IIRC one of the things the judge also said was the given the current backlog in the courts, it would be several years before the case would actually come to trial. Cutler is almost 77; part of the thinking seems to have been that he might not even live long enough to go to trial. (I’m sure some of the outcry came from people who would have had no idea that this wasn’t out of line with the average sentence. For obvious reasons, this has been a very high profile case. Most such prosecutions are not.)
GftNC — there was an outcry over Cutler’s sentence, which the the judge had approved the result of a plea agreement. IIRC one of the things the judge also said was the given the current backlog in the courts, it would be several years before the case would actually come to trial. Cutler is almost 77; part of the thinking seems to have been that he might not even live long enough to go to trial. (I’m sure some of the outcry came from people who would have had no idea that this wasn’t out of line with the average sentence. For obvious reasons, this has been a very high profile case. Most such prosecutions are not.)
If it was my choice, I’d go for something like 1 charge per piece of child porn. Without option for concurrent service. Have 10,000 pieces? That’s 10,000 charges. Even at a nominal sentence per piece, that adds up.
Want a plea deal? We’ll offer to drop half the charges. Take it or leave it. Oh, and you stay in jail until trial. If the courts are backed up, not our problem — lobby your state legislature to fund more judges.
If it was my choice, I’d go for something like 1 charge per piece of child porn. Without option for concurrent service. Have 10,000 pieces? That’s 10,000 charges. Even at a nominal sentence per piece, that adds up.
Want a plea deal? We’ll offer to drop half the charges. Take it or leave it. Oh, and you stay in jail until trial. If the courts are backed up, not our problem — lobby your state legislature to fund more judges.
And nobody I know says they are anything other than grossed out by them.
However, I remember being startled once when my future wife took a firm grip, looked me in the eye, and told me, “Remember, it’s not your penis now, it’s our penis.”
And nobody I know says they are anything other than grossed out by them.
However, I remember being startled once when my future wife took a firm grip, looked me in the eye, and told me, “Remember, it’s not your penis now, it’s our penis.”
Michael — that’s priceless. And I would assume a precious memory.
Michael — that’s priceless. And I would assume a precious memory.
For a lot of men, if a woman they didn’t know did that, it would be their favorite “Did I ever tell you about the time…” story.
For a lot of men, if a woman they didn’t know did that, it would be their favorite “Did I ever tell you about the time…” story.
Janie, thanks for that clarification and context.
Michael, that “however” is not appropriate! Your wife’s appreciation or claim to part-ownership is an entirely different matter: she had already made it quite clear that she was receptive to its charms. The girls I was talking about had never expressed even a passing interest in the senders.
But you remind me of a funny story about my grandparents, who died before I was born. My grandfather was very involved in politics, and the political agent with whom he used to do a lot of travelling around the country didn’t like my grandmother. Once, he was trying to rile her and make her jealous by implying that my grandfather was playing around with other women while out on the campaign trail, and my grandmother apparently looked him full in the eye, and said “It’s not made of soap, you know, it won’t wear out.”
I wish I’d known them, they sound like great characters. And my mother was very witty too. When she was about eight, and her horrible aunt’s husband had just died, my mother remarked to the family “He must have died in self defence.”
Janie, thanks for that clarification and context.
Michael, that “however” is not appropriate! Your wife’s appreciation or claim to part-ownership is an entirely different matter: she had already made it quite clear that she was receptive to its charms. The girls I was talking about had never expressed even a passing interest in the senders.
But you remind me of a funny story about my grandparents, who died before I was born. My grandfather was very involved in politics, and the political agent with whom he used to do a lot of travelling around the country didn’t like my grandmother. Once, he was trying to rile her and make her jealous by implying that my grandfather was playing around with other women while out on the campaign trail, and my grandmother apparently looked him full in the eye, and said “It’s not made of soap, you know, it won’t wear out.”
I wish I’d known them, they sound like great characters. And my mother was very witty too. When she was about eight, and her horrible aunt’s husband had just died, my mother remarked to the family “He must have died in self defence.”
The girls I was talking about had never expressed even a passing interest in the senders.
Yes, I’m quite aware of the difference between those women’s situation and my wife to be’s. I’ve never understood sending dick pics.
The girls I was talking about had never expressed even a passing interest in the senders.
Yes, I’m quite aware of the difference between those women’s situation and my wife to be’s. I’ve never understood sending dick pics.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing.
I’ve not (and probably never will be able to) worked it out, but looking at the Cohen case, there is something about societal conditions and the way they interact with these cases.
It is obvious that the metoo movement is going to fall differently on different societies and cultures, but Cohen carrying on with it being a known secret within the Guardian points to really deep underlying differences in UK and US culture. The differences in sentencing that GftNC points to the same. The closest I can get to it is that the UK looks at sex as something to be hidden away and used to titillate (which is why someone like Cohen can get away with it, because it is gauche to talk about it) while the US views sex as something more of a fungible good. Neither approach is good, but I’ve got no idea what a good approach would look like.
The standard move is to say that it is a question of class, which I don’t doubt has something to do with it, but there seems to be more there. Both cultures have irrational issues with sex, but they seem to be different irrational issues.
I always find it helpful to remind myself that this is not so much a sex thing driving it as it is a power thing.
I’ve not (and probably never will be able to) worked it out, but looking at the Cohen case, there is something about societal conditions and the way they interact with these cases.
It is obvious that the metoo movement is going to fall differently on different societies and cultures, but Cohen carrying on with it being a known secret within the Guardian points to really deep underlying differences in UK and US culture. The differences in sentencing that GftNC points to the same. The closest I can get to it is that the UK looks at sex as something to be hidden away and used to titillate (which is why someone like Cohen can get away with it, because it is gauche to talk about it) while the US views sex as something more of a fungible good. Neither approach is good, but I’ve got no idea what a good approach would look like.
The standard move is to say that it is a question of class, which I don’t doubt has something to do with it, but there seems to be more there. Both cultures have irrational issues with sex, but they seem to be different irrational issues.
“Both cultures have irrational issues with sex, but they seem to be different irrational issues.”
There’s an infinity of irrationals between any pair of rationals, so argument checks out mathematically.
“Both cultures have irrational issues with sex, but they seem to be different irrational issues.”
There’s an infinity of irrationals between any pair of rationals, so argument checks out mathematically.
I’ve been following the Cohen story for several months, if not longer, although as noted it has had to be through the subtlest of smoke signals, often maverick-ish tweeters, and with no acknowledgement for a long time from Guardian Media. My own tentative theory is that Cohen was such a historically influential figure on the right (i.e. leftish) side of most debates, that they thought it would be too damaging to allow his reputation to be so tarnished. But how they thought it could be contained, in this day and age, is beyond belief. At the moment, the defence seems to be that the incidents were connected to his then alcoholism, but as I understand it the timeline does not fully support this, even were it an acceptable excuse. The Guardian has been struggling for a while with how to reconcile “acceptable” (to the bien-pensant, progressive left) views, with the specific opinions (e.g. but not only, feminist) of many of its otherwise impeccably progressive journalists and columnists.
I’ve been following the Cohen story for several months, if not longer, although as noted it has had to be through the subtlest of smoke signals, often maverick-ish tweeters, and with no acknowledgement for a long time from Guardian Media. My own tentative theory is that Cohen was such a historically influential figure on the right (i.e. leftish) side of most debates, that they thought it would be too damaging to allow his reputation to be so tarnished. But how they thought it could be contained, in this day and age, is beyond belief. At the moment, the defence seems to be that the incidents were connected to his then alcoholism, but as I understand it the timeline does not fully support this, even were it an acceptable excuse. The Guardian has been struggling for a while with how to reconcile “acceptable” (to the bien-pensant, progressive left) views, with the specific opinions (e.g. but not only, feminist) of many of its otherwise impeccably progressive journalists and columnists.
It is obvious that the metoo movement is going to fall differently on different societies and cultures, but Cohen carrying on with it being a known secret within the Guardian points to really deep underlying differences in UK and US culture.
I should have said that actually IMO the US and the UK (and probably most societies) have a great deal in common on this issue: which is a tendency (notwithstanding the MeToo movement) to downplay the experiences of women, and also of people/employees of lesser power/influence within organisations when they complain of abuse by people of greater power/influence.
It is obvious that the metoo movement is going to fall differently on different societies and cultures, but Cohen carrying on with it being a known secret within the Guardian points to really deep underlying differences in UK and US culture.
I should have said that actually IMO the US and the UK (and probably most societies) have a great deal in common on this issue: which is a tendency (notwithstanding the MeToo movement) to downplay the experiences of women, and also of people/employees of lesser power/influence within organisations when they complain of abuse by people of greater power/influence.
JanieM, how’s the air up your way? It’s terrible here in southern NJ from the Canadian wildfires.
JanieM, how’s the air up your way? It’s terrible here in southern NJ from the Canadian wildfires.
We have escaped this one, hsh. I’m not sure if the smoke never actually blew this way, or if our recent string of windy days is blowing it away from us by accident. I hope yours clears up soon, but I gather from news reports that it might be a few days.
We have escaped this one, hsh. I’m not sure if the smoke never actually blew this way, or if our recent string of windy days is blowing it away from us by accident. I hope yours clears up soon, but I gather from news reports that it might be a few days.
hsh, having been thru this myself the past couple of years here in California, I definitely feel for you folks.
Pray that, when the current blazes burn themselves out, that’s largely the end of it. Because another 3-4 months of this is, in my experience, orders of magnitude worse. Most people can endure a couple of weeks of staying mostly inside, avoiding running around outside (including kids), etc. But beyond that, it gets seriously worse.
Be grateful that at least, thanks to covid, you’ve probably got a supply of masks already at hand. Doesn’t help for the eyes, alas. But at that point, keeping the lungs clear becomes more important.
hsh, having been thru this myself the past couple of years here in California, I definitely feel for you folks.
Pray that, when the current blazes burn themselves out, that’s largely the end of it. Because another 3-4 months of this is, in my experience, orders of magnitude worse. Most people can endure a couple of weeks of staying mostly inside, avoiding running around outside (including kids), etc. But beyond that, it gets seriously worse.
Be grateful that at least, thanks to covid, you’ve probably got a supply of masks already at hand. Doesn’t help for the eyes, alas. But at that point, keeping the lungs clear becomes more important.
I usually run outside during my lunch break, but the last few days (and I think one day last week) I’ve been going up and down the stairs in my building.
It’s a good fill-in workout, but the scenery is decidedly more drab. 🙁
After I posted my last comment, I checked out a satellite image and did notice that Maine appeared to be outside the air channel carrying the smoke south. Simply being closer doesn’t mean it’s worse! I hope you stay clear, JanieM.
I usually run outside during my lunch break, but the last few days (and I think one day last week) I’ve been going up and down the stairs in my building.
It’s a good fill-in workout, but the scenery is decidedly more drab. 🙁
After I posted my last comment, I checked out a satellite image and did notice that Maine appeared to be outside the air channel carrying the smoke south. Simply being closer doesn’t mean it’s worse! I hope you stay clear, JanieM.
Thanks, hsh. It’s a vivid memory from not too long after I moved here that I got up one day and smelled smoke/fire so strongly it could have been half a mile up the road. Turned out it was from a forest fire in Quebec. But we didn’t have bad smoke from that one — I don’t know how/why the smell got carried so strongly without it.
Thanks, hsh. It’s a vivid memory from not too long after I moved here that I got up one day and smelled smoke/fire so strongly it could have been half a mile up the road. Turned out it was from a forest fire in Quebec. But we didn’t have bad smoke from that one — I don’t know how/why the smell got carried so strongly without it.
It’s been getting thicker here as the day has gone on. I can smell it inside my office building now. I can’t see the skyscrapers that are more than a few blocks west of the Delaware River from my office, which is a couple blocks east of the Delaware River. The river isn’t all that wide here, either. It’s starting to freak me out.
It’s been getting thicker here as the day has gone on. I can smell it inside my office building now. I can’t see the skyscrapers that are more than a few blocks west of the Delaware River from my office, which is a couple blocks east of the Delaware River. The river isn’t all that wide here, either. It’s starting to freak me out.
I’m going to wear a mask outside. COVID in reverse.
I’m going to wear a mask outside. COVID in reverse.
Good luck, hsh. Scary and sounds like pretty spooky too.
Good luck, hsh. Scary and sounds like pretty spooky too.
For people who only infrequently get smoke, there’s a map showing fire, smoke, and air station quality measurements at:
https://fire.airnow.gov/
The same big nearly-stationary high pressure system that’s steering the smoke to the US East Coast is responsible for the Colorado Front Range having monsoon-like rainfall for the past week. We’re an inch over the average total rain for the month of June already. Might get more today if the thunderstorms currently over the mountains manage to move far enough east.
For people who only infrequently get smoke, there’s a map showing fire, smoke, and air station quality measurements at:
https://fire.airnow.gov/
The same big nearly-stationary high pressure system that’s steering the smoke to the US East Coast is responsible for the Colorado Front Range having monsoon-like rainfall for the past week. We’re an inch over the average total rain for the month of June already. Might get more today if the thunderstorms currently over the mountains manage to move far enough east.
Michael’s map reminds me that there’s also this one:
https://map.purpleair.com/1/mAQI/a10/p604800/cC0#9/39.0866/-123.2695
I was using both of them when my California friends were dealing with the effects and threat of fires two summers ago.
Michael’s map reminds me that there’s also this one:
https://map.purpleair.com/1/mAQI/a10/p604800/cC0#9/39.0866/-123.2695
I was using both of them when my California friends were dealing with the effects and threat of fires two summers ago.
Is this where I whine that the EPA will not accept “the USFS and BLM will not let their forests burn” as part of an attainment plan for cities where the number of days that violate the air standards exceed the limits?
(Yes, I know that the current problems on the East Coast, and problems we had along the Front Range last month, involve smoke from Canadian fires.)
Is this where I whine that the EPA will not accept “the USFS and BLM will not let their forests burn” as part of an attainment plan for cities where the number of days that violate the air standards exceed the limits?
(Yes, I know that the current problems on the East Coast, and problems we had along the Front Range last month, involve smoke from Canadian fires.)
It’s been getting thicker here as the day has gone on. I can smell it inside my office building now. I can’t see the skyscrapers that are more than a few blocks west of the Delaware River from my office, which is a couple blocks east of the Delaware River. The river isn’t all that wide here, either. It’s starting to freak me out.
At the risk of worrying you more, California lasts summer got to the point where we had essentially twilight at noon. The sun just couldn’t break thru the smoke at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Not just for one day either.
It’s been getting thicker here as the day has gone on. I can smell it inside my office building now. I can’t see the skyscrapers that are more than a few blocks west of the Delaware River from my office, which is a couple blocks east of the Delaware River. The river isn’t all that wide here, either. It’s starting to freak me out.
At the risk of worrying you more, California lasts summer got to the point where we had essentially twilight at noon. The sun just couldn’t break thru the smoke at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Not just for one day either.
We’re an inch over the average total rain for the month of June already.
Here in northern California this week: highs of barely 70. And we even got a bit of rain yesterday. Normal would be highs in the 90s, with lows possibly as high as 70. And it wouldn’t have rained since the start of May at the latest.
Good thing that the climate isn’t changing.
We’re an inch over the average total rain for the month of June already.
Here in northern California this week: highs of barely 70. And we even got a bit of rain yesterday. Normal would be highs in the 90s, with lows possibly as high as 70. And it wouldn’t have rained since the start of May at the latest.
Good thing that the climate isn’t changing.
At the risk of worrying you more, California lasts summer got to the point where we had essentially twilight at noon. The sun just couldn’t break thru the smoke at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Not just for one day either.
Yep. In 2020 the largest fires in Colorado’s history burned west of Fort Collins. The wind brought the smoke plumes directly over the city. Fortunately, the fires were hot enough the smoke went up fast/far enough that it didn’t mix down to the surface until well to our east. The sun’s disk showed occasionally through the smoke early in the morning. The rest of the day we had a very odd orange-brown twilight, regularly dim enough for the street lights to come on. Definitely dim enough that you turned on your headlights when driving. Went on for two weeks or a bit longer.
Because the plume didn’t mix down here, we didn’t have either the smoke smell nor the fine particulates. The plume was so well defined that if you drove 30 miles north or south of the city, it was a nice sunny day.
At the risk of worrying you more, California lasts summer got to the point where we had essentially twilight at noon. The sun just couldn’t break thru the smoke at the higher levels of the atmosphere. Not just for one day either.
Yep. In 2020 the largest fires in Colorado’s history burned west of Fort Collins. The wind brought the smoke plumes directly over the city. Fortunately, the fires were hot enough the smoke went up fast/far enough that it didn’t mix down to the surface until well to our east. The sun’s disk showed occasionally through the smoke early in the morning. The rest of the day we had a very odd orange-brown twilight, regularly dim enough for the street lights to come on. Definitely dim enough that you turned on your headlights when driving. Went on for two weeks or a bit longer.
Because the plume didn’t mix down here, we didn’t have either the smoke smell nor the fine particulates. The plume was so well defined that if you drove 30 miles north or south of the city, it was a nice sunny day.
New Yorkers are smelling more than weed on the streets.
Watch as Timelapse Shows How Fast New York City Turned Orange
New Yorkers are smelling more than weed on the streets.
Watch as Timelapse Shows How Fast New York City Turned Orange
The irony is that, minus the smoke, the current weather pattern would be bringing us the most glorious weather you could expect this time of year. I usually love Canadian air invading any time from May to October.
The irony is that, minus the smoke, the current weather pattern would be bringing us the most glorious weather you could expect this time of year. I usually love Canadian air invading any time from May to October.
We have, I think, firmly entered into the FO portion of our FAFO climate strategy.
We have, I think, firmly entered into the FO portion of our FAFO climate strategy.
We have, I think, firmly entered into the FO portion of our FAFO climate strategy.
Maybe. But I expect that, well down the road, nobody will look back and see this as part of FO. Just more FA.
For way too many, FO won’t replace denial until they’re overwhelmed. And, reflecting on the people who refused to believe in covid even as they died of it, maybe not even then.
We have, I think, firmly entered into the FO portion of our FAFO climate strategy.
Maybe. But I expect that, well down the road, nobody will look back and see this as part of FO. Just more FA.
For way too many, FO won’t replace denial until they’re overwhelmed. And, reflecting on the people who refused to believe in covid even as they died of it, maybe not even then.
Hy-Brasil is not sinking!!!!
Hy-Brasil is not sinking!!!!
The air quality is so bad in NYC that people are having to stay inside to smoke their cigarettes and weed.
The air quality is so bad in NYC that people are having to stay inside to smoke their cigarettes and weed.
I’m heading to DC for a conference next week. As I mentioned above, I spent the last couple of summers at home in California. So I have plenty of experience in dealing with smoke from wildfires in the air.
You just never know what things that you learn will turn out to be incredibly useful down the road.
I’m heading to DC for a conference next week. As I mentioned above, I spent the last couple of summers at home in California. So I have plenty of experience in dealing with smoke from wildfires in the air.
You just never know what things that you learn will turn out to be incredibly useful down the road.
Historical perspective on North American forest fires.
“Key results: Burn rates during the historical period for most sites showed a declining trend, particularly during the early to mid-1900s. Compared to the historical period, the modern period showed less variable and lower burn rates across sites. Mean burn rates during the modern period presented divergent trends among eastern versus northwestern sites, with increasing trends in mean burn rates in most northwestern North American sites.”
Converging and diverging burn rates in North American boreal forests from the Little Ice Age to the present
Historical perspective on North American forest fires.
“Key results: Burn rates during the historical period for most sites showed a declining trend, particularly during the early to mid-1900s. Compared to the historical period, the modern period showed less variable and lower burn rates across sites. Mean burn rates during the modern period presented divergent trends among eastern versus northwestern sites, with increasing trends in mean burn rates in most northwestern North American sites.”
Converging and diverging burn rates in North American boreal forests from the Little Ice Age to the present
Florida man indicted.
Florida man indicted.
Thanks for the laugh, Ugh.
Thanks for the laugh, Ugh.
Seven counts, including willful retention of national defense secrets, obstruction of justice and conspiracy, Conspiracy, at least, seems like a slam dunk — folding in various attorneys using the crime-fraud exception to flip some.
Consider it the next stone in the avalanche, which is picking up steam.
Seven counts, including willful retention of national defense secrets, obstruction of justice and conspiracy, Conspiracy, at least, seems like a slam dunk — folding in various attorneys using the crime-fraud exception to flip some.
Consider it the next stone in the avalanche, which is picking up steam.
I’m heading to the North Country for a couple of days, but this news has cheered me up.
The footage showing the air quality on the eastern seaboard are really horrifying. I hope you’re all (where affected) wearing masks. Good luck, and I hope we have no asthma sufferers…
I’m heading to the North Country for a couple of days, but this news has cheered me up.
The footage showing the air quality on the eastern seaboard are really horrifying. I hope you’re all (where affected) wearing masks. Good luck, and I hope we have no asthma sufferers…
Bad proofreading again. Sorry!
Bad proofreading again. Sorry!
Things have improved greatly here since yesterday. I took photos of the Philly skyline for comparison if anyone wants to put them in comments. Perhaps I could email them to someone? I’m not knowledgeable enough to do it myself.
Things have improved greatly here since yesterday. I took photos of the Philly skyline for comparison if anyone wants to put them in comments. Perhaps I could email them to someone? I’m not knowledgeable enough to do it myself.
Trump, as we know, routinely tries to drag out litigation. That may be why charges were filed in South Florida rather than, as some anticipated, in DC.
So realistically, this trial could kick off this fall, rather than next spring or later. Unless Trump tries for a change of venue. Not sure what excuse he could come up with. The judge initially assigned is somebody he appointed, so hard to argue prejudice there. And where would he figure to find a more sympathetic jury pool? It’s not like there’s a reason why Wyoming would be a plausible alternative.
Trump, as we know, routinely tries to drag out litigation. That may be why charges were filed in South Florida rather than, as some anticipated, in DC.
So realistically, this trial could kick off this fall, rather than next spring or later. Unless Trump tries for a change of venue. Not sure what excuse he could come up with. The judge initially assigned is somebody he appointed, so hard to argue prejudice there. And where would he figure to find a more sympathetic jury pool? It’s not like there’s a reason why Wyoming would be a plausible alternative.
Florida man indicted
Is this the Florida man who urged his supporters to chant “lock her up” at his rallies?
What goes around comes around.
Florida man indicted
Is this the Florida man who urged his supporters to chant “lock her up” at his rallies?
What goes around comes around.
hsh — i just sent you an email so that you have my address in case you can’t find it from years ago. Feel free to send pics and i’ll put them in comments, or maybe in a front page post — which is much easier. I’m heading out on errands right now, but I can do it later this afternoon.
Glad to hear your air is improving!
hsh — i just sent you an email so that you have my address in case you can’t find it from years ago. Feel free to send pics and i’ll put them in comments, or maybe in a front page post — which is much easier. I’m heading out on errands right now, but I can do it later this afternoon.
Glad to hear your air is improving!
Thank you, Janie! Email sent.
Thank you, Janie! Email sent.
Florida man indicted
Channelling my inner OCD, I actually read the whole indictment. (Available here https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/trump-2nd-indictment-full-document-text-00101294 .)
What struck me was the several times where the indictment quotes Trump explicitly speaking about the importance of safeguarding secret documents, and about how ex-employees of the Federal government should not have them. So any “ignorance of the law” (which isn’t a valid excuse anyway) argument is impossible.
Not to mention tapes of Trump saying explicitly that a document he was showing around and discussing a) was classified, and b) since he was no longer President he could not declassify it.
Florida man indicted
Channelling my inner OCD, I actually read the whole indictment. (Available here https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/trump-2nd-indictment-full-document-text-00101294 .)
What struck me was the several times where the indictment quotes Trump explicitly speaking about the importance of safeguarding secret documents, and about how ex-employees of the Federal government should not have them. So any “ignorance of the law” (which isn’t a valid excuse anyway) argument is impossible.
Not to mention tapes of Trump saying explicitly that a document he was showing around and discussing a) was classified, and b) since he was no longer President he could not declassify it.
But that is obviously just a sneaky way to influence the jury against him. [/sarcasm]
But that is obviously just a sneaky way to influence the jury against him. [/sarcasm]
Quote of the day:
At minimim, there are some foreign intelligence services kicking themselves for the missed opportunity.
Quote of the day:
At minimim, there are some foreign intelligence services kicking themselves for the missed opportunity.