NC-9 – An Open Thread About the Folly of Accusing Others of the Things You Do Yourself

by

by wj

I find myself repeatedly amazed by what is going on in North Carolina. First, as we have all noticed, the state legislature has been in a long effort to combat “voting fraud” – that is people voting who shouldn’t be. They have been undeterred by a lack of evidence that there was really a problem.

But now we discover that North Carolina (at least part of it) has a major real problem with election fraud. That is, people breaking the law to impact the results of an election. Oh yeah, and it’s the party of the folks who have been exercised about “voter fraud” which seem to have been engaging in it. Oops.

Initially, there was some concerned about the statistics around absentee voter results in one county of one Congressional district: NC-9. But as people dug deeper, they found more and more . . . oddities. For example, the number of applications for absentee ballots was substantially higher than in neighboring counties. And the percentage of ballots returned was higher. And the distribution of votes on those absentee ballots was utterly unlike that in other counties. Not only did the one candidate get enough votes to account for all of the registered Republicans, he would have had to get all of the independents and some of the Democrats besides. Hmmm.

Then, it turned out that a lot of people had been asked to give their (unsealed, and often incomplete) absentee ballots to other people to turn in. In North Carolina, its illegal to do that with unsealed ballots, and even illegal to have someone else turn the absentee ballot at all in unless they are a close relative. Then, it developed that an amazing number of the returned absentee ballots were signed (as witnesses) by the same two people. And then, a number of the folks who had been doing the collecting of those absentee ballots started talking about what instructions they had received by the person who hired them.

It gets better. The law says that mail ballots cannot be counted until the polls close. The whole point being to avoid giving anyone a look at results when there is still time to act. But in Bladen County it appears that they had been counted well ahead of time, not just hours, but possible a day or two early. And the results shared with one campaign.

The operative who hired them, one Leslie McCrae Dowless, was an ex-con, with a prior conviction for fraud. And he had, apparently, been doing this for some time. Always good to hire someone with experience, right?

The initial reaction, by the Elections Commission, was to refuse to certify the results. The losing candidate, not surprisingly, demanded a new election be called. Meanwhile the winning candidate argued that, even if there were irregularities, there weren’t enough to effect the results.

As things developed, turns out that the operative had been hired indirectly, that is by a consulting firm hired by the campaign. But now we find that the consulting firm hired him at the direction of the candidate. Oh.

And it gets better again. Turns out that, two years ago, that candidate had lost the Republican primary to someone who had hired that same operative. And with the same kind of odd results in absentee ballots. So this time, he hired the guy for his own primary campaign – and it worked!

For more, see https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fight-over-election-fraud-in-north-carolina-could-drag-on-for-months/ and https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-been-more-than-30-years-since-the-house-reversed-an-election-outcome/

P.S. I cannot refrain from noting that the candidate is, apparently, an “evangelical pastor.” I know a lot of evangelicals, and they are uniformly good people. But it sure seems like a lot of their supposed spiritual leaders have sold their souls. Including this guy.

322 thoughts on “NC-9 – An Open Thread About the Folly of Accusing Others of the Things You Do Yourself”

  3. The first question for me will be: does Harris get re-nominated? If, as I understand North Carolina has just mandated, a new election has to include a new primary as well. He’s pretty obviously damaged goods — that’s why the new law to force a primary was passed, after all.
    But certainly the DCCC, with only one race to look at rather than 400+, ought to be ready to wade in big time on GOTV efforts. After all, it’s pretty clear than what we are looking at here is a swing district.

  4. The first question for me will be: does Harris get re-nominated? If, as I understand North Carolina has just mandated, a new election has to include a new primary as well. He’s pretty obviously damaged goods — that’s why the new law to force a primary was passed, after all.
    But certainly the DCCC, with only one race to look at rather than 400+, ought to be ready to wade in big time on GOTV efforts. After all, it’s pretty clear than what we are looking at here is a swing district.

  5. does Harris get re-nominated?
    If the good (R) folks of NC-9 want to give him another go, far be it from me to stand in their way.

  6. does Harris get re-nominated?
    If the good (R) folks of NC-9 want to give him another go, far be it from me to stand in their way.

  7. A re-do is admittedly better than rubber-stamping fraudulent results, but still better would be disqualifying the cheater and awarding the seat to his opponent by default. “No harm, no foul, let’s just do it over” is like taking the money back from an embezzler and leaving it at that.
    Now about “evangelicals”. Like “conservatives”, I’m sure they come in many flavors. I doubt there’s a law restricting who can call himself an “evangelical”. Still, all evangelicals must have some precepts in common — precepts that differentiate them from other Christians. I always thought their defining precept is that they must evangelize: they must not content themselves with their own salvation but must also undertake to save everybody else. If you’re not going to bug your friends and neighbors to hear The Good News, what kind of an evangelical are you?
    –TP

  8. A re-do is admittedly better than rubber-stamping fraudulent results, but still better would be disqualifying the cheater and awarding the seat to his opponent by default. “No harm, no foul, let’s just do it over” is like taking the money back from an embezzler and leaving it at that.
    Now about “evangelicals”. Like “conservatives”, I’m sure they come in many flavors. I doubt there’s a law restricting who can call himself an “evangelical”. Still, all evangelicals must have some precepts in common — precepts that differentiate them from other Christians. I always thought their defining precept is that they must evangelize: they must not content themselves with their own salvation but must also undertake to save everybody else. If you’re not going to bug your friends and neighbors to hear The Good News, what kind of an evangelical are you?
    –TP

  9. Pastor Harris (on his knees): O Lord, shall I hire this crook to fix the election?
    God (who answers prayers): Yes, obvs
    Pastor Harris: Lord, you know that if elected I’ll have more power to bring lost souls to you
    God: Yes, I’m omniscient. And it’s ok to flout election law if you’re an evangelical Republican.
    Pastor Harris: Blessed be the name of the Lord

  10. Pastor Harris (on his knees): O Lord, shall I hire this crook to fix the election?
    God (who answers prayers): Yes, obvs
    Pastor Harris: Lord, you know that if elected I’ll have more power to bring lost souls to you
    God: Yes, I’m omniscient. And it’s ok to flout election law if you’re an evangelical Republican.
    Pastor Harris: Blessed be the name of the Lord

  11. cause clearly an omnipotent deity needs to hire an ex-felon ratfncker to get the job done, amirite?

  12. cause clearly an omnipotent deity needs to hire an ex-felon ratfncker to get the job done, amirite?

  13. The Republican party is full of stupid crooks. Who keep getting elected. Stupid crooks. NOt smart ones. Stupid ones. And they keep getting elected and even poll well with R base voters.

  14. The Republican party is full of stupid crooks. Who keep getting elected. Stupid crooks. NOt smart ones. Stupid ones. And they keep getting elected and even poll well with R base voters.

  15. Re: a different Republican crook. I’ve been thinking a bout the values and principles a [person has to give up to be a Republican:
    fiscal conservatism
    respect for the rule of law
    respect for the law itself
    respect for facts
    respect for the Constitution and representative government
    Liindsay Grahm just said that there was nothing wrong with Trump lying about the payoffs, so apparently there no longer is a need for respect for truth or truthful behavior.
    I’m pretty sure this is only a partial list.

  16. Re: a different Republican crook. I’ve been thinking a bout the values and principles a [person has to give up to be a Republican:
    fiscal conservatism
    respect for the rule of law
    respect for the law itself
    respect for facts
    respect for the Constitution and representative government
    Liindsay Grahm just said that there was nothing wrong with Trump lying about the payoffs, so apparently there no longer is a need for respect for truth or truthful behavior.
    I’m pretty sure this is only a partial list.

  21. Graham has also recently said, of the testimony of Secs. Mattis and Pompeo on the Khashoggi affair, that “if they were in a Democratic administration, I’d be all over them for being in Saudi Arabia’s pocket”.
    But of course IOKIYAR.

  22. Graham has also recently said, of the testimony of Secs. Mattis and Pompeo on the Khashoggi affair, that “if they were in a Democratic administration, I’d be all over them for being in Saudi Arabia’s pocket”.
    But of course IOKIYAR.

  23. I want every “pro-life” commenter here to tell me who I should blame for the death of the 8-year-old Guatemalan girl:
    1) a just and vengeful god;
    2) the loathsome reptile in the White House
    3) the loathsome reptile’s deplorable head of “Homeland Security”
    4) her sadistic border agents
    5) the father who tried to bring her to this “Christian” country for refuge
    6) every voter who lusted after tax cuts and “pro life” judges
    That’s everybody I can identify in the chain of command. I leave out Satan, because only good Christians believe in him.
    –TP

  24. I want every “pro-life” commenter here to tell me who I should blame for the death of the 8-year-old Guatemalan girl:
    1) a just and vengeful god;
    2) the loathsome reptile in the White House
    3) the loathsome reptile’s deplorable head of “Homeland Security”
    4) her sadistic border agents
    5) the father who tried to bring her to this “Christian” country for refuge
    6) every voter who lusted after tax cuts and “pro life” judges
    That’s everybody I can identify in the chain of command. I leave out Satan, because only good Christians believe in him.
    –TP

  27. Tony, although there are (it seems) many actively evil guys among those border agents, it is sufficient to simply not care for the people given into one’s custody for things like that to happen. The effect of gross negligence and active mistreatment can easily be the same. I have no idea whether the victim was actively denied access to water by an individual agent, by order of a superior or whether the one responsible forgot or did just not care to ask, if water was needed.
    There should be consequences in any case but more, if malice can be shown.
    (Cynic that I am, I do not expect much or, if the maltreatment was encouraged from above, that the fall guy will not be the one really responsible).

  28. Tony, although there are (it seems) many actively evil guys among those border agents, it is sufficient to simply not care for the people given into one’s custody for things like that to happen. The effect of gross negligence and active mistreatment can easily be the same. I have no idea whether the victim was actively denied access to water by an individual agent, by order of a superior or whether the one responsible forgot or did just not care to ask, if water was needed.
    There should be consequences in any case but more, if malice can be shown.
    (Cynic that I am, I do not expect much or, if the maltreatment was encouraged from above, that the fall guy will not be the one really responsible).

  29. So George Pell has been convicted of abusing 2 choirboys, although the news is blocked in most of the world:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/a-top-cardinals-sex-abuse-conviction-is-huge-news-in-australia-but-the-media-cant-report-it-there/2018/12/12/49c0eb68-fe27-11e8-83c0-b06139e540e5_story.html?utm_term=.a08aed7cb549
    I credit the wonderful Tim Minchin for alerting me (and millions of others) to this issue. His single “Come Home Cardinal Pell” raised enough money to send 15 abuse survivors to Rome to hear Pell’s evidence, after he had successfully argued he was not well enough to go back to Australia to testify about what he knew (not at that stage what he did). Art in the cause of justice – it works sometimes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtHOmforqxk

  30. So George Pell has been convicted of abusing 2 choirboys, although the news is blocked in most of the world:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/a-top-cardinals-sex-abuse-conviction-is-huge-news-in-australia-but-the-media-cant-report-it-there/2018/12/12/49c0eb68-fe27-11e8-83c0-b06139e540e5_story.html?utm_term=.a08aed7cb549
    I credit the wonderful Tim Minchin for alerting me (and millions of others) to this issue. His single “Come Home Cardinal Pell” raised enough money to send 15 abuse survivors to Rome to hear Pell’s evidence, after he had successfully argued he was not well enough to go back to Australia to testify about what he knew (not at that stage what he did). Art in the cause of justice – it works sometimes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtHOmforqxk

  31. Tony P.
    As a member of the Evangelical-Lutheran Church of Finland, i’d like to answer. We are a national established church. The reason why there is “evangelical-Lutheran” in the name is that there have been two establisshed churches aince 1809. The other is the Orthodox Church of Finland, with rather small membership.
    Because there were two established churches, it was necessary for our church to adopt a name. “Evangelical” means is Germany roughly the same as “Lutheran”, and “Lutheran” was added for clarity and to make it clear we are not “reformed” or allied with them, like the Prussian Evangelical church.
    So, in Europe, it is quite possible to be “evangelical” without pestering people all the time. In a country with an established church, the custom is to assume that your neighbour is a good, faithful Christian unless he absolutely states otherwise. So, if everyone around you is already a good Christian, there is no reason to go around preaching to the choir.

  32. Tony P.
    As a member of the Evangelical-Lutheran Church of Finland, i’d like to answer. We are a national established church. The reason why there is “evangelical-Lutheran” in the name is that there have been two establisshed churches aince 1809. The other is the Orthodox Church of Finland, with rather small membership.
    Because there were two established churches, it was necessary for our church to adopt a name. “Evangelical” means is Germany roughly the same as “Lutheran”, and “Lutheran” was added for clarity and to make it clear we are not “reformed” or allied with them, like the Prussian Evangelical church.
    So, in Europe, it is quite possible to be “evangelical” without pestering people all the time. In a country with an established church, the custom is to assume that your neighbour is a good, faithful Christian unless he absolutely states otherwise. So, if everyone around you is already a good Christian, there is no reason to go around preaching to the choir.

  33. re: NJ gerrymandering.
    Why? Because IOKIYAR means that the only way to reform stuff like this is if DEMS do it.
    Similarly, want torture to be really, truly put back in the box of “never ever even THINK of doing this sh!t”? Torture domestic terrorist to find their connections with the their GOP fellow travelers, the follow the connections and wrap up the whole loathsome bunch.
    If they didn’t want to be tortured to the point of organ failure, they never should have opened that box.

  34. re: NJ gerrymandering.
    Why? Because IOKIYAR means that the only way to reform stuff like this is if DEMS do it.
    Similarly, want torture to be really, truly put back in the box of “never ever even THINK of doing this sh!t”? Torture domestic terrorist to find their connections with the their GOP fellow travelers, the follow the connections and wrap up the whole loathsome bunch.
    If they didn’t want to be tortured to the point of organ failure, they never should have opened that box.

  35. Why, when they are winning the argument, do some Democrats think it acceptable to do stupid shit like this ?
    Why? Because there are always some who have little faith that they can win without cheating. Especially if the other guy is cheating. And in some kinds of contests, that may even be true.
    Then there are the folks who are motivated strictly by revenge. Not to mention those who, having talked up “turn about is fair play”, feel like they have to deliver.
    Either one is foolish. But we have watched voters who just want to thumb their noses at “the establishment”, while caring nothing about the means to that end, elect Trump and pass Brexit. Just because an action is counterproductive is no guarantee some folks won’t jump at the chance.

  36. Why, when they are winning the argument, do some Democrats think it acceptable to do stupid shit like this ?
    Why? Because there are always some who have little faith that they can win without cheating. Especially if the other guy is cheating. And in some kinds of contests, that may even be true.
    Then there are the folks who are motivated strictly by revenge. Not to mention those who, having talked up “turn about is fair play”, feel like they have to deliver.
    Either one is foolish. But we have watched voters who just want to thumb their noses at “the establishment”, while caring nothing about the means to that end, elect Trump and pass Brexit. Just because an action is counterproductive is no guarantee some folks won’t jump at the chance.

  37. Speaking of the peril reflected in “Be careful what you wish for; you might get it”, we have this out of Texas late Friday night.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/federal-judge-in-texas-rules-obama-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2018/12/14/9e8bb5a2-fd63-11e8-862a-b6a6f3ce8199_story.html
    Republicans in Congress, not to mention the state AGs pushing for this, must be relieved that they dodged a bullet. Consider if the decision had come down before the election. The blue wave we actually saw would have been a ripple in the sink by comparison.
    Of course now Republicans in Congress are faced with actually coming up with the wonderful, marvelous alternative they have been promising for a decade. Good luck with that.
    My prediction: we’ll see just what we saw with NAFTA — something with a couple of tiny (microscopic even) tweaks, but a new brand name. Well, at least their base will be ecstatic that it won’t be called Obamacare.

  38. Speaking of the peril reflected in “Be careful what you wish for; you might get it”, we have this out of Texas late Friday night.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/federal-judge-in-texas-rules-obama-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2018/12/14/9e8bb5a2-fd63-11e8-862a-b6a6f3ce8199_story.html
    Republicans in Congress, not to mention the state AGs pushing for this, must be relieved that they dodged a bullet. Consider if the decision had come down before the election. The blue wave we actually saw would have been a ripple in the sink by comparison.
    Of course now Republicans in Congress are faced with actually coming up with the wonderful, marvelous alternative they have been promising for a decade. Good luck with that.
    My prediction: we’ll see just what we saw with NAFTA — something with a couple of tiny (microscopic even) tweaks, but a new brand name. Well, at least their base will be ecstatic that it won’t be called Obamacare.

  39. And in some kinds of contests, that may even be true.
    Right there, wj, you let the cat out of the bag.
    The question of ‘cheating’ and ‘political violence’ is a fascinating one. When it is ‘justified’? There are no clear rules.
    What should be done in response to the Wisconsin GOP coup? Just suck it up? Whine and moan about how unfair it is? Have the new governor declare martial law, outlaw the GOP, and round up GOP legislators and detain them?
    These lines are usually quite blurry. At what point is the opposition entitled to take up arms? Is violent opposition justified now in Hungary? Poland? Turkey?
    I would say, “You know, it could be”. My reservations would be based on a practical assessment of the availability of other less disruptive means, and the probability of success, not trotted out moral nostrums.
    But, as they say, your mileage may vary.

  40. And in some kinds of contests, that may even be true.
    Right there, wj, you let the cat out of the bag.
    The question of ‘cheating’ and ‘political violence’ is a fascinating one. When it is ‘justified’? There are no clear rules.
    What should be done in response to the Wisconsin GOP coup? Just suck it up? Whine and moan about how unfair it is? Have the new governor declare martial law, outlaw the GOP, and round up GOP legislators and detain them?
    These lines are usually quite blurry. At what point is the opposition entitled to take up arms? Is violent opposition justified now in Hungary? Poland? Turkey?
    I would say, “You know, it could be”. My reservations would be based on a practical assessment of the availability of other less disruptive means, and the probability of success, not trotted out moral nostrums.
    But, as they say, your mileage may vary.

  41. The question of ‘cheating’ and ‘political violence’ is a fascinating one. When it is ‘justified’? There are no clear rules.
    Just to be clear, I didn’t say (certainly I didn’t intend to say) that cheating was justified. All I was saying is that sometimes, in the short run, it may “work”.
    What should be done in response to the Wisconsin GOP coup? Just suck it up? Whine and moan about how unfair it is? Have the new governor declare martial law, outlaw the GOP, and round up GOP legislators and detain them?
    I’d say the right approach would be to do exactly what the new Governor is, as I understand it, planning to do. Take them to court and get the new laws voided. And, dare I suggest, get an injunction putting them on hold until the case is decided.
    And if the case fails? I confess I haven’t worked thru that yet. But I think we’re guite a ways from needing to answer that question. If, indeed, we ever need to.

  42. The question of ‘cheating’ and ‘political violence’ is a fascinating one. When it is ‘justified’? There are no clear rules.
    Just to be clear, I didn’t say (certainly I didn’t intend to say) that cheating was justified. All I was saying is that sometimes, in the short run, it may “work”.
    What should be done in response to the Wisconsin GOP coup? Just suck it up? Whine and moan about how unfair it is? Have the new governor declare martial law, outlaw the GOP, and round up GOP legislators and detain them?
    I’d say the right approach would be to do exactly what the new Governor is, as I understand it, planning to do. Take them to court and get the new laws voided. And, dare I suggest, get an injunction putting them on hold until the case is decided.
    And if the case fails? I confess I haven’t worked thru that yet. But I think we’re guite a ways from needing to answer that question. If, indeed, we ever need to.

  43. Obviously, taking them to court would be a first step. However, if the laws were passed “legally” (i.e., not traducing the Wisconsin State Constitution) then upon what grounds would they be voided? If the initial laws were passed by previous legislatures, why can they not be reversed?
    The problem here is a blatant attack on the spirit of the law and governing norms, not its letter. The creeping (and now accelerating) dismantling of democracy in Hungary offers a lesson here.
    It is at this point that things can get dangerous, and “tit for tat” measures become justified, because otherwise you are just telling the other side that you will lay down and take it and hope for a better day…
    ….which may never come.
    I confess I haven’t worked thru that yet.
    Indeed. That’s my point.

  44. Obviously, taking them to court would be a first step. However, if the laws were passed “legally” (i.e., not traducing the Wisconsin State Constitution) then upon what grounds would they be voided? If the initial laws were passed by previous legislatures, why can they not be reversed?
    The problem here is a blatant attack on the spirit of the law and governing norms, not its letter. The creeping (and now accelerating) dismantling of democracy in Hungary offers a lesson here.
    It is at this point that things can get dangerous, and “tit for tat” measures become justified, because otherwise you are just telling the other side that you will lay down and take it and hope for a better day…
    ….which may never come.
    I confess I haven’t worked thru that yet.
    Indeed. That’s my point.

  45. what happened in WI, just as it was when it happened in NC, is legal. gerrymandering, too.
    don’t like it? elect saints.

  46. what happened in WI, just as it was when it happened in NC, is legal. gerrymandering, too.
    don’t like it? elect saints.

  49. Definitely not. Saints tend to be terrible in positions of authority. Either they are too meek to get anything done or they try to impose their perfection on others, if need be by force.
    Not to forget that the list of official saints contains a lot of absolutely horrible guys that the world would have been better off with martyring prenatally (or in the case of the likes of St.Augustine taken away from their mothers at birth to prevent their minds getting poisoned by them).

  50. Definitely not. Saints tend to be terrible in positions of authority. Either they are too meek to get anything done or they try to impose their perfection on others, if need be by force.
    Not to forget that the list of official saints contains a lot of absolutely horrible guys that the world would have been better off with martyring prenatally (or in the case of the likes of St.Augustine taken away from their mothers at birth to prevent their minds getting poisoned by them).

  51. don’t like it? elect saints.
    Even if we dismiss Hartmut’s point, Republicans are foreclosing that possibility.

  52. don’t like it? elect saints.
    Even if we dismiss Hartmut’s point, Republicans are foreclosing that possibility.

  53. elect saints
    Allow me to point out that “saints” was the colloquial term for Mormons in the 19th century West. Elect people like Romney? OK. But people like Hatch? Not seeing that as a step forward.

  54. elect saints
    Allow me to point out that “saints” was the colloquial term for Mormons in the 19th century West. Elect people like Romney? OK. But people like Hatch? Not seeing that as a step forward.

  55. I haven’t watched the Rory Stewart interview, but I’m reminded of an FT interview he did a few years ago:
    “It’s like they’re coming in and saying to you, ‘I’m going to drive my car off a cliff. Should I or should I not wear a seatbelt?’ And you say, ‘I don’t think you should drive your car off the cliff.’ And they say, ‘No, no, that bit’s already been decided – the question is whether to wear a seatbelt.’ And you say, ‘Well, you might as well wear a seatbelt.’ And then they say, ‘We’ve consulted with policy expert Rory Stewart and he says …’”

  56. I haven’t watched the Rory Stewart interview, but I’m reminded of an FT interview he did a few years ago:
    “It’s like they’re coming in and saying to you, ‘I’m going to drive my car off a cliff. Should I or should I not wear a seatbelt?’ And you say, ‘I don’t think you should drive your car off the cliff.’ And they say, ‘No, no, that bit’s already been decided – the question is whether to wear a seatbelt.’ And you say, ‘Well, you might as well wear a seatbelt.’ And then they say, ‘We’ve consulted with policy expert Rory Stewart and he says …’”

  57. The Texas judge’s argument seems to be that, since Congress took away the fine which backed up the mandate, then there is no mandate and therefore nothing else including Medicaid expansion. Even for rightwingers that seems to be a pretty flakey ruling. I don’t think the SC will uphold it. It could make a difference in some governor’s races, though since the lawsuit was brought by governors. I hope it makes a difference..
    I haven’t noticed much crowing about the ruling except from Trump.

  58. The Texas judge’s argument seems to be that, since Congress took away the fine which backed up the mandate, then there is no mandate and therefore nothing else including Medicaid expansion. Even for rightwingers that seems to be a pretty flakey ruling. I don’t think the SC will uphold it. It could make a difference in some governor’s races, though since the lawsuit was brought by governors. I hope it makes a difference..
    I haven’t noticed much crowing about the ruling except from Trump.

  59. “that seems to be a pretty flakey ruling”
    and
    “I haven’t noticed much crowing about the ruling except from Trump.”
    two great tastes that go together.
    Sounds like that Fed. judge (who, it seems has a *history* of flaky rulings) is angling for Trump’s next Supreme Court pick.
    It remains to be seen if he’s ‘rapey’ enough for Trump to really get behind.

  60. “that seems to be a pretty flakey ruling”
    and
    “I haven’t noticed much crowing about the ruling except from Trump.”
    two great tastes that go together.
    Sounds like that Fed. judge (who, it seems has a *history* of flaky rulings) is angling for Trump’s next Supreme Court pick.
    It remains to be seen if he’s ‘rapey’ enough for Trump to really get behind.

  61. I don’t think the SC will uphold it.
    Yeah, CJ Roberts has gone to considerable effort to shepherd the ACA through the various challenges to it, including sending a fairly blunt message down to the Circuit courts to stop trying to kill it. I don’t see him changing direction at this point.

  62. I don’t think the SC will uphold it.
    Yeah, CJ Roberts has gone to considerable effort to shepherd the ACA through the various challenges to it, including sending a fairly blunt message down to the Circuit courts to stop trying to kill it. I don’t see him changing direction at this point.

  67. If the state legislators in New Jersey (or Wisconsin, or anywhere else) were seriously interested in doing right by voters, they could just take redistricting out of their hands and create an independent, non-partisan redistricting commission. We’ve tried it, and it can work.

  68. If the state legislators in New Jersey (or Wisconsin, or anywhere else) were seriously interested in doing right by voters, they could just take redistricting out of their hands and create an independent, non-partisan redistricting commission. We’ve tried it, and it can work.

  71. We’ve tried it, and it can work.
    California is still pretty heavily gerrymandered though perhaps not as much as it would otherwise be. And non-partisan redistricting commissions can be subjected to partisan influences.
    “‘Redistricting Should Be Boring’
    In their attempts to prevent partisan redistricting, many states have created “independent commissions” that empower supposedly disinterested members of the general public to craft maps, or at least to give input to the legislature.
    Those efforts have had mixed results, with biases often managing to infiltrate a supposedly nonpartisan process. In California, for example, a highly touted “citizens commission” redrew congressional district lines in 2011, but a     ProPublica investigation revealed that Democratic activists and labor unions had secretly packed the body to influence the outcome.
    ​Even when they are not consciously sabotaged, citizens commissions don’t do a very good job of un-gerrymandering districts. Researchers from Yale and the University of California, Los Angeles compared a set of 1,473 proposed district maps from 13 states where citizen input is part of the process against a set of maps created by computer simulations. After comparing simulated and actual election results using the different maps, researchers concluded that 77 percent of maps drawn by state lawmakers were less competitive than the computer-drawn alternatives—not very surprising, given the incentives for legislatures to create “safe” districts for incumbents. But the maps drawn by members of the general public were just as bad, with 75 percent of them being less competitive than their simulated counterparts.”
    Gerrymandering Is Out of Control: Computers could be the key to resolving partisan fights over congressional boundaries.
    The Atlas Of Redistricting: California

  72. We’ve tried it, and it can work.
    California is still pretty heavily gerrymandered though perhaps not as much as it would otherwise be. And non-partisan redistricting commissions can be subjected to partisan influences.
    “‘Redistricting Should Be Boring’
    In their attempts to prevent partisan redistricting, many states have created “independent commissions” that empower supposedly disinterested members of the general public to craft maps, or at least to give input to the legislature.
    Those efforts have had mixed results, with biases often managing to infiltrate a supposedly nonpartisan process. In California, for example, a highly touted “citizens commission” redrew congressional district lines in 2011, but a     ProPublica investigation revealed that Democratic activists and labor unions had secretly packed the body to influence the outcome.
    ​Even when they are not consciously sabotaged, citizens commissions don’t do a very good job of un-gerrymandering districts. Researchers from Yale and the University of California, Los Angeles compared a set of 1,473 proposed district maps from 13 states where citizen input is part of the process against a set of maps created by computer simulations. After comparing simulated and actual election results using the different maps, researchers concluded that 77 percent of maps drawn by state lawmakers were less competitive than the computer-drawn alternatives—not very surprising, given the incentives for legislatures to create “safe” districts for incumbents. But the maps drawn by members of the general public were just as bad, with 75 percent of them being less competitive than their simulated counterparts.”
    Gerrymandering Is Out of Control: Computers could be the key to resolving partisan fights over congressional boundaries.
    The Atlas Of Redistricting: California

  73. California is still pretty heavily gerrymandered though perhaps not as much as it would otherwise be.
    I’d be interested to know what you think would be a non-gerrymandered map. And what your criteria would be for creating one.
    You say (quote): “In California, for example, a highly touted “citizens commission” redrew congressional district lines in 2011, but a ProPublica investigation revealed that Democratic activists and labor unions had secretly packed the body to influence the outcome.”
    But if that’s true, why is it that, according the the 538 article you link to, there is a substantial difference in outcomes between a “Democratic gerrymander” map and the current one? A difference which basically creates a bunch of competitive districts (which wouldn’t exist in the Democratic gerrymandered map). Virtually all of which are taken from the total the Democrats could have gotten if they’d actually been in control.
    You might also want to look at the mandate that created the Electoral Commission. Just to see what those folks were supposed to do — as opposed to what you think they should have been told to do.

  74. California is still pretty heavily gerrymandered though perhaps not as much as it would otherwise be.
    I’d be interested to know what you think would be a non-gerrymandered map. And what your criteria would be for creating one.
    You say (quote): “In California, for example, a highly touted “citizens commission” redrew congressional district lines in 2011, but a ProPublica investigation revealed that Democratic activists and labor unions had secretly packed the body to influence the outcome.”
    But if that’s true, why is it that, according the the 538 article you link to, there is a substantial difference in outcomes between a “Democratic gerrymander” map and the current one? A difference which basically creates a bunch of competitive districts (which wouldn’t exist in the Democratic gerrymandered map). Virtually all of which are taken from the total the Democrats could have gotten if they’d actually been in control.
    You might also want to look at the mandate that created the Electoral Commission. Just to see what those folks were supposed to do — as opposed to what you think they should have been told to do.

  75. I thought the goal and purpose of gerrymanderers is to create “competitive” districts by lumping their opponents into as small a number of “safe” districts as possible.
    Here in MA we are mostly Democrats, but we have enough Republicans to elect Republican governors often enough. Yet all our Representatives are Democrats. This suggests that our Republicans are fairly spread out around the Commonwealth.
    Suppose we wanted (being fair-minded goo-goo libruls and all) to allow our Republicans to win two or three seats so that our congressional delegation better reflects the composition of our electorate. What would we have to do? I suspect we’d have to gerrymander like crazy. I suspect we’d need to draw some absolutely ridiculous district boundaries — in the name of “fairness” or “competitiveness” or something.
    –TP

  76. I thought the goal and purpose of gerrymanderers is to create “competitive” districts by lumping their opponents into as small a number of “safe” districts as possible.
    Here in MA we are mostly Democrats, but we have enough Republicans to elect Republican governors often enough. Yet all our Representatives are Democrats. This suggests that our Republicans are fairly spread out around the Commonwealth.
    Suppose we wanted (being fair-minded goo-goo libruls and all) to allow our Republicans to win two or three seats so that our congressional delegation better reflects the composition of our electorate. What would we have to do? I suspect we’d have to gerrymander like crazy. I suspect we’d need to draw some absolutely ridiculous district boundaries — in the name of “fairness” or “competitiveness” or something.
    –TP

  79. Suppose we wanted (being fair-minded goo-goo libruls and all) to allow our Republicans to win two or three seats so that our congressional delegation better reflects the composition of our electorate. What would we have to do?
    Tony, check out this
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/massachusetts/
    (From Charles’ link.) Multiple options for districts, depending on what you are trying to achieve. Including “match partisan breakdown of the electorate”.
    P.S. I don’t think “gerrymander” really applies to cases other than when you are drawing districts to benefit your party at the expense of the other party.

  80. Suppose we wanted (being fair-minded goo-goo libruls and all) to allow our Republicans to win two or three seats so that our congressional delegation better reflects the composition of our electorate. What would we have to do?
    Tony, check out this
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/massachusetts/
    (From Charles’ link.) Multiple options for districts, depending on what you are trying to achieve. Including “match partisan breakdown of the electorate”.
    P.S. I don’t think “gerrymander” really applies to cases other than when you are drawing districts to benefit your party at the expense of the other party.

  81. Or send the top two vote-getters in each district to represent that district, splitting a legislative vote between them in proportion to the number of votes they each got. Then it doesn’t really matter how you draw your districts, aside from their having (nearly) equal populations.

  82. Or send the top two vote-getters in each district to represent that district, splitting a legislative vote between them in proportion to the number of votes they each got. Then it doesn’t really matter how you draw your districts, aside from their having (nearly) equal populations.

  83. Thanks wj (and Charles!) for a fascinating link.
    To my eye, the MA “Match partisan breakdown of seats to electorate” map is pretty damn “gerrymandered” (as I suspected) in the sense of including some ridiculously shaped districts.
    I agree that your definition of “gerrymander” would only apply if the Republicans in MA somehow managed to impose that map on the Commonwealth. But if us lefties imposed it, on “fairness” grounds, it would still look ridiculous.
    –TP

  84. Thanks wj (and Charles!) for a fascinating link.
    To my eye, the MA “Match partisan breakdown of seats to electorate” map is pretty damn “gerrymandered” (as I suspected) in the sense of including some ridiculously shaped districts.
    I agree that your definition of “gerrymander” would only apply if the Republicans in MA somehow managed to impose that map on the Commonwealth. But if us lefties imposed it, on “fairness” grounds, it would still look ridiculous.
    –TP

  85. I tend to have a philosophical preference for “compact districts” as an approach.
    I can see an argument for trying to keep communities, specifically communities of similar interests (however defined) together. I just can see a lot of difficulties for defining that kind of similarity. Compact districts at least assure us that other (i.e. specifically political) considerations were minimized.

  86. I tend to have a philosophical preference for “compact districts” as an approach.
    I can see an argument for trying to keep communities, specifically communities of similar interests (however defined) together. I just can see a lot of difficulties for defining that kind of similarity. Compact districts at least assure us that other (i.e. specifically political) considerations were minimized.

  87. The district?, I forget, that elected Barney Frank for a few decades was gerrymandered to do specifically that.
    And it looked absurd even to those of us who lived in it. The point of it, however, may have made sense because it is hard to get 600k similar people in a district that includes the Cape.

  88. The district?, I forget, that elected Barney Frank for a few decades was gerrymandered to do specifically that.
    And it looked absurd even to those of us who lived in it. The point of it, however, may have made sense because it is hard to get 600k similar people in a district that includes the Cape.

  89. MA-7 appears to be designed to concentrate the minority vote, and MA-3 looks like our very own rust belt.
    I liked the compactness one the best. Besides being sensibly compact, it seems to align pretty well with the political leanings of the various parts of the state.

  90. MA-7 appears to be designed to concentrate the minority vote, and MA-3 looks like our very own rust belt.
    I liked the compactness one the best. Besides being sensibly compact, it seems to align pretty well with the political leanings of the various parts of the state.

  91. MA-1 is kinda rust-belty, too, mixed in with a lotta well-groomed Berkshire rural stateliness.
    To be honest, you can find a generous amount of rust belt anywhere in New England. Even Connecticut has its share.

  92. MA-1 is kinda rust-belty, too, mixed in with a lotta well-groomed Berkshire rural stateliness.
    To be honest, you can find a generous amount of rust belt anywhere in New England. Even Connecticut has its share.

  93. Perhaps oddly, other than the simple algorithmic compactness version, the least tortured map was the one ‘gerrymandered’ for the (D)’s.

  94. Perhaps oddly, other than the simple algorithmic compactness version, the least tortured map was the one ‘gerrymandered’ for the (D)’s.

  95. “The district?, I forget, that elected Barney Frank for a few decades was gerrymandered to do specifically that. ”
    Well, MA *invented* the gerrymander, so what do you expect?

  96. “The district?, I forget, that elected Barney Frank for a few decades was gerrymandered to do specifically that. ”
    Well, MA *invented* the gerrymander, so what do you expect?

  97. ‘gerrymander’ is named for Elbridge Gerry, signer of the Declaration and Articles of Confederation, attendee of the Constitutional Convention, VPOTUS, and MA homeboy. I live in what was part of the original gerrymandered district.
    nothing new about this stuff.
    meanwhile, another Trumpie wises up.
    This is why I no longer get into it with Trump supporters. At all, ever.
    When it bites them on their own personal ass, they figure it out. Until then, no point in getting into it with them.

  98. ‘gerrymander’ is named for Elbridge Gerry, signer of the Declaration and Articles of Confederation, attendee of the Constitutional Convention, VPOTUS, and MA homeboy. I live in what was part of the original gerrymandered district.
    nothing new about this stuff.
    meanwhile, another Trumpie wises up.
    This is why I no longer get into it with Trump supporters. At all, ever.
    When it bites them on their own personal ass, they figure it out. Until then, no point in getting into it with them.

  99. another Trumpie wises up
    Not that the thought is original with me, but too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.

  100. another Trumpie wises up
    Not that the thought is original with me, but too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.

  101. too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.
    For some, empathy is limited to those in close proximity.
    But I confess I can understand why he assume that Trumps rants about building the wall were othing but hot air. After all, 99%** of what Trump says he will do is unrelated to reality. Nasty surprise to discover that something you care about is part of the 1%.
    Sort of like the folks with family members with pre-existing conditions discovering that all those efforts to appeal Obamacare, including that part, were serious. Nobody appears unhappier about Friday’s court decision to repeal the whole thing that the Republican members of Congress. Who now have the choice to either leave the members of their base twisting in the wind. Or actually write that wonderful alternative they have been promising for a decade.
    ** OK, maybe 99.99%. But you take the point.

  102. too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.
    For some, empathy is limited to those in close proximity.
    But I confess I can understand why he assume that Trumps rants about building the wall were othing but hot air. After all, 99%** of what Trump says he will do is unrelated to reality. Nasty surprise to discover that something you care about is part of the 1%.
    Sort of like the folks with family members with pre-existing conditions discovering that all those efforts to appeal Obamacare, including that part, were serious. Nobody appears unhappier about Friday’s court decision to repeal the whole thing that the Republican members of Congress. Who now have the choice to either leave the members of their base twisting in the wind. Or actually write that wonderful alternative they have been promising for a decade.
    ** OK, maybe 99.99%. But you take the point.

  107. Not that the thought is original with me, but too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.
    But letting predatory lenders loose on economically vulnerable people is great for everyone! (Feel free to pick any similarly odious Trump-administration policy that works for you.)

  108. Not that the thought is original with me, but too bad he didn’t give a sh!t until he found out that it wasn’t just other people’s oxen getting gored.
    But letting predatory lenders loose on economically vulnerable people is great for everyone! (Feel free to pick any similarly odious Trump-administration policy that works for you.)

  109. I think you could make a pretty good list of some of the best things the Obama administration put into place by looking specifically at the things the Trump administration is rolling back. It would be nice if such a list identified the worst things that a previous administration had done, but we obviously can’t have nice things.

  110. I think you could make a pretty good list of some of the best things the Obama administration put into place by looking specifically at the things the Trump administration is rolling back. It would be nice if such a list identified the worst things that a previous administration had done, but we obviously can’t have nice things.

  111. I think you could make a pretty good list of some of the best things the Obama administration put into place by looking specifically at the things the Trump administration is rolling back.
    Hardly surprising, since one of Trump’s major motivators is hatred for Obama. And all his works, which suffer guilt by association.
    The actual merits, if any, of the specific law, regulation, policy, etc. are utterly irrelevant. Indeed, you could probably get rid of something bad the Obama did, even if Trump has been embracing it, if you told him (better yet, got someone on Fox & Friends to say) that it was a notable achievement of Obama’s.

  112. I think you could make a pretty good list of some of the best things the Obama administration put into place by looking specifically at the things the Trump administration is rolling back.
    Hardly surprising, since one of Trump’s major motivators is hatred for Obama. And all his works, which suffer guilt by association.
    The actual merits, if any, of the specific law, regulation, policy, etc. are utterly irrelevant. Indeed, you could probably get rid of something bad the Obama did, even if Trump has been embracing it, if you told him (better yet, got someone on Fox & Friends to say) that it was a notable achievement of Obama’s.

  113. The President of the United States of America lacks sufficient moral standing to be a member on a board of a non-profit according to the New York State Attorney General.
    But the Clinton Foundation!

  114. The President of the United States of America lacks sufficient moral standing to be a member on a board of a non-profit according to the New York State Attorney General.
    But the Clinton Foundation!

  115. Obviously the Deep State extends past the Federal government into the state governments. At least in the blue states….

  116. Obviously the Deep State extends past the Federal government into the state governments. At least in the blue states….

  121. Perhaps the summary line in that article was this: “[Old Boys are] terribly scared of losing.”
    They are scared of losing, IMHO, because deep down they actually know that they’re losers. All the bluster, all the petty cruelties, all the blaming of others, all the insatiable need for applause and for ever more (supposed) wealth? Those are just ways to help paper over that reality in their own eyes.
    It would be sad, and really pathetic (which reaction would drive them to hysteria), if it weren’t for the damage they do in their insecurity.

  122. Perhaps the summary line in that article was this: “[Old Boys are] terribly scared of losing.”
    They are scared of losing, IMHO, because deep down they actually know that they’re losers. All the bluster, all the petty cruelties, all the blaming of others, all the insatiable need for applause and for ever more (supposed) wealth? Those are just ways to help paper over that reality in their own eyes.
    It would be sad, and really pathetic (which reaction would drive them to hysteria), if it weren’t for the damage they do in their insecurity.

  125. three shutdowns in a year.
    can we just cancel the GOP already? it’s non-functional as a governing party. i get that it fulfills an emotional need for people who live to stick it to liberals, but can’t y’all just do that on the TeeVee and let the adults run the goddamn government?

  126. three shutdowns in a year.
    can we just cancel the GOP already? it’s non-functional as a governing party. i get that it fulfills an emotional need for people who live to stick it to liberals, but can’t y’all just do that on the TeeVee and let the adults run the goddamn government?

  127. Is there a fund to adopt a federal worker? I saw the head of the California Republican Party insulting federal workers and I wanted to punch her out. We need to have solidarity in this fight. Obviously, with the stock market into Depression-land territory, and oldsters freaking out that we can’t pay our mortgages, it’s hard to be free and loose with our retirement savings, but WTF, Americans?
    We have to do this.

  128. Is there a fund to adopt a federal worker? I saw the head of the California Republican Party insulting federal workers and I wanted to punch her out. We need to have solidarity in this fight. Obviously, with the stock market into Depression-land territory, and oldsters freaking out that we can’t pay our mortgages, it’s hard to be free and loose with our retirement savings, but WTF, Americans?
    We have to do this.

  129. There aren’t any adults in charge on the Dem side.
    The Republicans funded through normal course 75% of the government. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Every picture of Schumer is him smiling, this isn’t anything that should be making him happy.
    He knows Trump cant get anymore after Jan 3 so they figure they can shut down the government until then.
    House passed it, President will sign it, this is on Schumer.

  130. There aren’t any adults in charge on the Dem side.
    The Republicans funded through normal course 75% of the government. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Every picture of Schumer is him smiling, this isn’t anything that should be making him happy.
    He knows Trump cant get anymore after Jan 3 so they figure they can shut down the government until then.
    House passed it, President will sign it, this is on Schumer.

  139. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Explain how this is any kind of fiscally responsible.
    “A billion here, and a billion there, and soon you’re talking about real money.” — Senator Everett Dirksen
    I’m trying to imagine the reaction if some Democrat said “Approve and shut up” about a pet project. Especially one which both lacked definition and still managed to have no chance of achieving its purported objectives with any of them. Actually, I don’t have to imagine. Democrats have come up with a few that were that bad and of comparable cost (although they have not, admittedly, come close to shutting down the government over them). Let’s just say the reaction did not bear noticable resemblance to “Yeah, OK. Let’s just do it.”

  140. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Explain how this is any kind of fiscally responsible.
    “A billion here, and a billion there, and soon you’re talking about real money.” — Senator Everett Dirksen
    I’m trying to imagine the reaction if some Democrat said “Approve and shut up” about a pet project. Especially one which both lacked definition and still managed to have no chance of achieving its purported objectives with any of them. Actually, I don’t have to imagine. Democrats have come up with a few that were that bad and of comparable cost (although they have not, admittedly, come close to shutting down the government over them). Let’s just say the reaction did not bear noticable resemblance to “Yeah, OK. Let’s just do it.”

  143. Nothing happens from now on anyway for two years.
    And yet there have been several significant measures passed with bipartisan support in the past two years. Russia sanctions. Criminal penalties revision. Etc.
    Seems entirely possible that something similar will come down over the way our foreign policy is being mismanaged. When you’ve got highly partisan Senators (from BOTH parties) comparing Trump unfavorably to Obama in public statements, actions tend to follow. That’s where we got to at the end of the week.

  144. Nothing happens from now on anyway for two years.
    And yet there have been several significant measures passed with bipartisan support in the past two years. Russia sanctions. Criminal penalties revision. Etc.
    Seems entirely possible that something similar will come down over the way our foreign policy is being mismanaged. When you’ve got highly partisan Senators (from BOTH parties) comparing Trump unfavorably to Obama in public statements, actions tend to follow. That’s where we got to at the end of the week.

  145. I would never support shutting down the government over 5b.
    And yet, that is what both sides have done. And since, at various times this week, Trump said he was OK with a continuing resolution, it’s pretty clear where the problem is.

  146. I would never support shutting down the government over 5b.
    And yet, that is what both sides have done. And since, at various times this week, Trump said he was OK with a continuing resolution, it’s pretty clear where the problem is.

  147. would never support shutting down the government over 5b.
    Good for you. It’s not about the money (can you understand other things?). It’s about a racist wall. The “design” (although it’s not real, of course) is approved by Vladimir Putin. Get it, Marty? No, you probably don’t.
    You will plod on until you don’t. And so will we all.
    Tick tock.

  148. would never support shutting down the government over 5b.
    Good for you. It’s not about the money (can you understand other things?). It’s about a racist wall. The “design” (although it’s not real, of course) is approved by Vladimir Putin. Get it, Marty? No, you probably don’t.
    You will plod on until you don’t. And so will we all.
    Tick tock.

  149. There I s nothing racist about the wall.
    Every administration in my adult lifetime has had a policy to improve border security, there is nothing racist about a wall to accomplish that.
    I question its effectiveness but that puts it on a list that includes lots of things we spend money on.
    But thr Democratic leaders need to convince you that its some moral stance is why we have a shutdown.

  150. There I s nothing racist about the wall.
    Every administration in my adult lifetime has had a policy to improve border security, there is nothing racist about a wall to accomplish that.
    I question its effectiveness but that puts it on a list that includes lots of things we spend money on.
    But thr Democratic leaders need to convince you that its some moral stance is why we have a shutdown.

  153. I don’t anticipate anything happening until after the new Congress is sworn in.
    Then, I’m looking forward to seeing what McConnell does when the House passes and sends him a bill that is word-for-word identical to what the little-changed Senate approved unanimously two weeks earlier.

  154. I don’t anticipate anything happening until after the new Congress is sworn in.
    Then, I’m looking forward to seeing what McConnell does when the House passes and sends him a bill that is word-for-word identical to what the little-changed Senate approved unanimously two weeks earlier.

  159. The only reason we have a shutdown is because the GOP refuses to get rid of the filibuster for this issue, as opposed to getting rid of it for SC nominations. Any claim to the contrary is pure unmitigated bullshit.
    This is a GOP/Trump shutdown. QED

  160. The only reason we have a shutdown is because the GOP refuses to get rid of the filibuster for this issue, as opposed to getting rid of it for SC nominations. Any claim to the contrary is pure unmitigated bullshit.
    This is a GOP/Trump shutdown. QED

  161. Please provide evidence for this claim.
    Item: The government is shut down.
    Item: The difference between the funding bill that successfully passed the Senate earlier in the week, and what the House sent back to die, is $5 billion.
    Item: Both sides agree that said $5 billion is the casus belli.
    What more do you need? Seriously, what additional evidence would you require in order to link cause and effect?

  162. Please provide evidence for this claim.
    Item: The government is shut down.
    Item: The difference between the funding bill that successfully passed the Senate earlier in the week, and what the House sent back to die, is $5 billion.
    Item: Both sides agree that said $5 billion is the casus belli.
    What more do you need? Seriously, what additional evidence would you require in order to link cause and effect?

  163. The difference is $5b for a stupid policy. How on earth do you justify this as “both sides”. What is the Dem “side” to do to make you happy? Agree to the $5b? Is that how “bothsiderism” works? How about if the GOP just dropped it?
    Maybe that is just asking too much.
    Yea, sure. Both sides. That is nuts.
    AND AS PUT FORTH ABOVE, THE GOP COULD PASS THIS IF THEY REALLY WANTED TO. BUT YOU IGNORE THIS TO PROMOTE THE SILLY MEME ABOUT ‘BOTH SIDES’.
    Evidence. Indeed. Seriously.

  164. The difference is $5b for a stupid policy. How on earth do you justify this as “both sides”. What is the Dem “side” to do to make you happy? Agree to the $5b? Is that how “bothsiderism” works? How about if the GOP just dropped it?
    Maybe that is just asking too much.
    Yea, sure. Both sides. That is nuts.
    AND AS PUT FORTH ABOVE, THE GOP COULD PASS THIS IF THEY REALLY WANTED TO. BUT YOU IGNORE THIS TO PROMOTE THE SILLY MEME ABOUT ‘BOTH SIDES’.
    Evidence. Indeed. Seriously.

  165. How ’bout the GOP counters with a rational policy on the Dreamers? How about if the GOP counters with ANY kind of concession?
    ANY. ANY. ANY. ANY.
    I hope this point is now clear to you.
    But both sides. JFC.

  166. How ’bout the GOP counters with a rational policy on the Dreamers? How about if the GOP counters with ANY kind of concession?
    ANY. ANY. ANY. ANY.
    I hope this point is now clear to you.
    But both sides. JFC.

  167. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Fuck that.
    I think ‘the wall’ is stupid horseshit political theater intended to appeal to bigots and assholes.
    So I don’t want $5B of public money spent on it.
    Build some schools instead. And shut up.

  168. Approve 5b for border security and shut up.
    Fuck that.
    I think ‘the wall’ is stupid horseshit political theater intended to appeal to bigots and assholes.
    So I don’t want $5B of public money spent on it.
    Build some schools instead. And shut up.

  169. There was a deal on the budget.
    And then Trump changed his mind (despite Republican opposition in the Senate).
    I’m with Sen. Hirono over this. Blaming the Democrats is bullshit.

  170. There was a deal on the budget.
    And then Trump changed his mind (despite Republican opposition in the Senate).
    I’m with Sen. Hirono over this. Blaming the Democrats is bullshit.

  175. Apart from being ineffective and harmful to the environment, the ‘wall’ is also under suspicion of being a boondoggle/scam to shift money to well-connected companies (although not directly to one owned by Trump).

  176. Apart from being ineffective and harmful to the environment, the ‘wall’ is also under suspicion of being a boondoggle/scam to shift money to well-connected companies (although not directly to one owned by Trump).

  179. Approve 5b for border security
    the wall will cost at least five times that much. everybody knows it.
    so, no.
    and shut up
    40 seats. the Dems won 40 fucking seats. so, um, no.

  180. Approve 5b for border security
    the wall will cost at least five times that much. everybody knows it.
    so, no.
    and shut up
    40 seats. the Dems won 40 fucking seats. so, um, no.

  183. the first step needed to make progress as a nation from where we are right now is to turn the president’s freaking TV off.
    no more fox & friends, no more hannity.
    then, take his mobile phone away.

  184. the first step needed to make progress as a nation from where we are right now is to turn the president’s freaking TV off.
    no more fox & friends, no more hannity.
    then, take his mobile phone away.

  185. The difference is $5b for a stupid policy. How on earth do you justify this as “both sides”. What is the Dem “side” to do to make you happy?
    What the Dems are doing IS making me happy. Because the “wall” (quotes because what it actually is keeps changing) is a piece of idiocy and always has been.
    Which doesn’t change the fact that, regardless of which side’s position one favors, the fight is over $5 billion either way. And the government is being shut down as a result. That’s all I was saying.

  186. The difference is $5b for a stupid policy. How on earth do you justify this as “both sides”. What is the Dem “side” to do to make you happy?
    What the Dems are doing IS making me happy. Because the “wall” (quotes because what it actually is keeps changing) is a piece of idiocy and always has been.
    Which doesn’t change the fact that, regardless of which side’s position one favors, the fight is over $5 billion either way. And the government is being shut down as a result. That’s all I was saying.

  187. the first step needed to make progress as a nation from where we are right now is to turn the president’s freaking TV off.
    Somehow there’s never a hacker around when you need one. Picture the feed of Fox & Friends replaced** by something educational. Uplifting even.
    Do you suppose Sesame Street would be over the audience’s head…?
    ** Don’t think small! Don’t stop with the East Wing; go nationwide! The need is greater than one man.

  188. the first step needed to make progress as a nation from where we are right now is to turn the president’s freaking TV off.
    Somehow there’s never a hacker around when you need one. Picture the feed of Fox & Friends replaced** by something educational. Uplifting even.
    Do you suppose Sesame Street would be over the audience’s head…?
    ** Don’t think small! Don’t stop with the East Wing; go nationwide! The need is greater than one man.

  189. • First Step was officially passed
    • Government shutdown
    • Hemp got legalized
    • Pulling troops out of Syria and Afghanistan
    • Supreme Court Blocks Trump’s Attempt To Change Asylum Law
    It’s a libertarian Christmas!

  190. • First Step was officially passed
    • Government shutdown
    • Hemp got legalized
    • Pulling troops out of Syria and Afghanistan
    • Supreme Court Blocks Trump’s Attempt To Change Asylum Law
    It’s a libertarian Christmas!

  191. It’s (kind of) an open thread, so:
    RIP Paddy Ashdown, ex-leader of the Liberal Democrats and a real loss in very many ways. Plus, since he had been in the Special Services, he was also the excuse for a bon mot by the equally late, wonderful Charles Kennedy MP, which I know I have posted before, but in memoriaum for both of them:
    Paddy Ashdown is the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.

  192. It’s (kind of) an open thread, so:
    RIP Paddy Ashdown, ex-leader of the Liberal Democrats and a real loss in very many ways. Plus, since he had been in the Special Services, he was also the excuse for a bon mot by the equally late, wonderful Charles Kennedy MP, which I know I have posted before, but in memoriaum for both of them:
    Paddy Ashdown is the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.

  197. CharlesWT: It’s a libertarian Christmas!
    Let us rejoice that somebody is happy.
    Meanwhile, let us pray for the kind of people whose heads are so far up He, Trump’s ass that they can write “There is nothing racist about the wall”. May Santa stuff a clue in their stocking tomorrow night.
    –TP

  198. CharlesWT: It’s a libertarian Christmas!
    Let us rejoice that somebody is happy.
    Meanwhile, let us pray for the kind of people whose heads are so far up He, Trump’s ass that they can write “There is nothing racist about the wall”. May Santa stuff a clue in their stocking tomorrow night.
    –TP

  199. “May Santa stuff a clue in their stocking tomorrow night.”
    Trump is making coal great again, it’s true.

  200. “May Santa stuff a clue in their stocking tomorrow night.”
    Trump is making coal great again, it’s true.

  201. the fight is over $5 billion either way.
    $5b is peanuts. The fight is a marker for an overall sane immigration policy. Caving on wall is telling a big part of your political coalition to go suck eggs. Craven as our Dem political leadership is, they are doing the right thing here.
    The real fight is amongst the GOP factions (the nutcases vs the not so nutcases). A united GOP could ram this through….but they haven’t.
    There is a bigger picture here.

  202. the fight is over $5 billion either way.
    $5b is peanuts. The fight is a marker for an overall sane immigration policy. Caving on wall is telling a big part of your political coalition to go suck eggs. Craven as our Dem political leadership is, they are doing the right thing here.
    The real fight is amongst the GOP factions (the nutcases vs the not so nutcases). A united GOP could ram this through….but they haven’t.
    There is a bigger picture here.

  205. Merry Christmas, and every wish for a better and happier new year for all of us, even those for whom this year has actually been good.
    Also, as someone we once knew used to say as a toast (and I mean this particularly about politicians etc):
    Champagne for our real friends, and real pain for our sham friends.

  206. Merry Christmas, and every wish for a better and happier new year for all of us, even those for whom this year has actually been good.
    Also, as someone we once knew used to say as a toast (and I mean this particularly about politicians etc):
    Champagne for our real friends, and real pain for our sham friends.

  207. Merry Christmas, and every wish for a better and happier new year for all of us, even those for whom this year has actually been good.
    Also, as someone we once knew used to say as a toast (and I mean this particularly about politicians etc):
    Champagne for our real friends, and real pain for our sham friends.

  208. Merry Christmas, and every wish for a better and happier new year for all of us, even those for whom this year has actually been good.
    Also, as someone we once knew used to say as a toast (and I mean this particularly about politicians etc):
    Champagne for our real friends, and real pain for our sham friends.

  209. Great toast, GftNC! I’m using that one.
    Merry Christmas or whatever it is you do this time of year, everyone.

  210. Great toast, GftNC! I’m using that one.
    Merry Christmas or whatever it is you do this time of year, everyone.

  219. “There is nothing racist about the wall”
    the fault, dear brutus, is not in the wall, but in ourselves.
    well toasted, GFNTC.
    jouez, hautbois, resonnez, musettes. may the day and the season return us to our best selves.
    i’ve had my fill of cookes and cider, so it’s on with my winter’s cap and off to bed.

  220. “There is nothing racist about the wall”
    the fault, dear brutus, is not in the wall, but in ourselves.
    well toasted, GFNTC.
    jouez, hautbois, resonnez, musettes. may the day and the season return us to our best selves.
    i’ve had my fill of cookes and cider, so it’s on with my winter’s cap and off to bed.

  221. A Haddy Grimble and Sherry Neverbeen to me lads and lasses holding the OBWI fort. Bestesses to each peach of you.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITfqbmwQaMQ
    Grabs yer socks and tells yer feet that Santa is only of marginal utility, but can ya spare yer cratchit a bob anyhoo.
    https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1077375011600678912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1077380215037341696&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.balloon-juice.com%2F
    Rants available in the archives should you need them and it seems you will.
    Meanwhile, dance with the sugarplums and take one home on the slyballs.

  222. A Haddy Grimble and Sherry Neverbeen to me lads and lasses holding the OBWI fort. Bestesses to each peach of you.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITfqbmwQaMQ
    Grabs yer socks and tells yer feet that Santa is only of marginal utility, but can ya spare yer cratchit a bob anyhoo.
    https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1077375011600678912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1077380215037341696&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.balloon-juice.com%2F
    Rants available in the archives should you need them and it seems you will.
    Meanwhile, dance with the sugarplums and take one home on the slyballs.

  231. Not All Republicans, sapient. Just the high-level ones.
    The others are “traitor-enablers”. Unfortunately Misprision of Treason hasn’t been useful since Aaron Burr got acquitted.

  232. Not All Republicans, sapient. Just the high-level ones.
    The others are “traitor-enablers”. Unfortunately Misprision of Treason hasn’t been useful since Aaron Burr got acquitted.

  233. Sometimes, a little sanity creeps in.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-was-arrested-for-having-nunchucks-in-new-york-im-glad-the-law-was-overturned/2018/12/26/e2559dbe-092c-11e9-a3f0-71c95106d96a_story.html
    Seriously, folks. Ignore who the author is. Ignore the legal rationalization, and the way it has been abused elsewhere. Just see the glimmer of sense.
    I should add my favorite nunchuck story. A friend had his “deadly nunchucks” confiscated by the California Highway Patrol after a routine traffic stop. Well, except for the detail that they were actually a folded up 3 legged stool.

  234. Sometimes, a little sanity creeps in.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-was-arrested-for-having-nunchucks-in-new-york-im-glad-the-law-was-overturned/2018/12/26/e2559dbe-092c-11e9-a3f0-71c95106d96a_story.html
    Seriously, folks. Ignore who the author is. Ignore the legal rationalization, and the way it has been abused elsewhere. Just see the glimmer of sense.
    I should add my favorite nunchuck story. A friend had his “deadly nunchucks” confiscated by the California Highway Patrol after a routine traffic stop. Well, except for the detail that they were actually a folded up 3 legged stool.

  239. “THE GOP COULD PASS THIS IF THEY REALLY WANTED TO”
    I like the idea of needing 60 votes for cloture, so no, as far as I’m concerned they cant pass it.

  240. “THE GOP COULD PASS THIS IF THEY REALLY WANTED TO”
    I like the idea of needing 60 votes for cloture, so no, as far as I’m concerned they cant pass it.

  241. the GOP could, if it wanted to, abolish the legislative filibuster.
    it is totally in their power.
    i’m honestly surprised they haven’t done it yet.

  242. the GOP could, if it wanted to, abolish the legislative filibuster.
    it is totally in their power.
    i’m honestly surprised they haven’t done it yet.

  243. What that sounds like, Marty, is that you like blaming the other side for your side’s problem.
    What I don’t like is the thought that the Democrats might cave to any petty legislative blackmail the current occupant of the White House might indulge in.
    FWIW.

  244. What that sounds like, Marty, is that you like blaming the other side for your side’s problem.
    What I don’t like is the thought that the Democrats might cave to any petty legislative blackmail the current occupant of the White House might indulge in.
    FWIW.

  249. it hasn’t been big news here, either.
    but Fox News made some noise about him in 2016, because Bill Clinton has some association with Epstein (as does Trump, but they never talked about that).

  250. it hasn’t been big news here, either.
    but Fox News made some noise about him in 2016, because Bill Clinton has some association with Epstein (as does Trump, but they never talked about that).

  251. the GOP could, if it wanted to, abolish the legislative filibuster…. i’m honestly surprised they haven’t done it yet.
    Yeah, I had a small bet with a couple of people that they would do it. (Remains to be discussed in January whether removing the filibuster for SCOTUS nominees means I won, lost, or if we just declare it a tie.) There are apparently still enough Republican Senators who are afraid of what would happen if they dumped the legislative filibuster and the Democrats got unified control. (The 2020 Senate elections are a different subject — I am among those that think the map is not nearly as bad for the Republicans as many do.)
    As it turns out, much of the legislative agenda they could actually pass with a simple majority — recall that they couldn’t get 50 Republican votes to defund Obamacare — can be accomplished by Cabinet officials and agency heads. Over the last 100 years, Congress has delegated an enormous amount of their legislative authority. Instead of adding one sentence to the Clean Air Act — “For the purposes of this Act, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant” — they are simply reversing the various rules that restricted the extraction and use of fossil fuels.

  252. the GOP could, if it wanted to, abolish the legislative filibuster…. i’m honestly surprised they haven’t done it yet.
    Yeah, I had a small bet with a couple of people that they would do it. (Remains to be discussed in January whether removing the filibuster for SCOTUS nominees means I won, lost, or if we just declare it a tie.) There are apparently still enough Republican Senators who are afraid of what would happen if they dumped the legislative filibuster and the Democrats got unified control. (The 2020 Senate elections are a different subject — I am among those that think the map is not nearly as bad for the Republicans as many do.)
    As it turns out, much of the legislative agenda they could actually pass with a simple majority — recall that they couldn’t get 50 Republican votes to defund Obamacare — can be accomplished by Cabinet officials and agency heads. Over the last 100 years, Congress has delegated an enormous amount of their legislative authority. Instead of adding one sentence to the Clean Air Act — “For the purposes of this Act, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant” — they are simply reversing the various rules that restricted the extraction and use of fossil fuels.

  253. I am among those that think the map is not nearly as bad for the Republicans as many do
    it’s less about the map and more about what 2 more years of president clickbait looks like.

  254. I am among those that think the map is not nearly as bad for the Republicans as many do
    it’s less about the map and more about what 2 more years of president clickbait looks like.

  255. IIRC, there are filibuster-proof ‘reconciliation’ techniques that can be used for tax/budget bills. That’s what happened for the “Yoogue Richy-Rich Tax Giveaway of 2017”, for example.
    The GOP Didn’t. Even. Try. SAD

  256. IIRC, there are filibuster-proof ‘reconciliation’ techniques that can be used for tax/budget bills. That’s what happened for the “Yoogue Richy-Rich Tax Giveaway of 2017”, for example.
    The GOP Didn’t. Even. Try. SAD

  257. Nigel, thank you for that Miami Herald piece. I can’t remember the last time something made me so angry – possibly when the extent of the cover-up of child abuse in the Catholic Church first started coming out, or maybe the evidence of how long the authorities had been ignoring the young girls’ testimonies about child-sex grooming gangs in Rotherham etc.
    I remember reading stuff about the Epstein case because of Prince Andrew’s involvement, and the mention of Bill Clinton, but this article puts the whole thing into more proper perspective. Here’s hoping the chickens really come home to fucking roost this time, and for the right people.

  258. Nigel, thank you for that Miami Herald piece. I can’t remember the last time something made me so angry – possibly when the extent of the cover-up of child abuse in the Catholic Church first started coming out, or maybe the evidence of how long the authorities had been ignoring the young girls’ testimonies about child-sex grooming gangs in Rotherham etc.
    I remember reading stuff about the Epstein case because of Prince Andrew’s involvement, and the mention of Bill Clinton, but this article puts the whole thing into more proper perspective. Here’s hoping the chickens really come home to fucking roost this time, and for the right people.

  259. IANAL, but the plea deal that Epstein got seems like such a miscarriage of justice that there has to be some way to invalidate it. It’s. Just. Wrong.

  260. IANAL, but the plea deal that Epstein got seems like such a miscarriage of justice that there has to be some way to invalidate it. It’s. Just. Wrong.

  261. Snarki, there are a bunch of restrictions on whether there can be reconciliation bills, how many reconciliation bills there can be for a fiscal year (from one to three, depending), and on the content of the bills. The first step in the process is a joint budget resolution (ie, the House must agree) with explicit reconciliation instructions. It seems to me unlikely that the House will be approving any of those for the next couple of years.

  262. Snarki, there are a bunch of restrictions on whether there can be reconciliation bills, how many reconciliation bills there can be for a fiscal year (from one to three, depending), and on the content of the bills. The first step in the process is a joint budget resolution (ie, the House must agree) with explicit reconciliation instructions. It seems to me unlikely that the House will be approving any of those for the next couple of years.

  263. Russell, absolutely about what the current President, the current Senate, and assorted appointees can do in the next two years. Over the last 100 or so years Congress has delegated a lot of law-writing authority to the Cabinet departments and independent agencies (plus selective enforcement from day one). I’m disagreeing with the pundits who think that because the Republicans have to defend so many Senate seats in 2020 the Dems will easily win Senate control then.

  264. Russell, absolutely about what the current President, the current Senate, and assorted appointees can do in the next two years. Over the last 100 or so years Congress has delegated a lot of law-writing authority to the Cabinet departments and independent agencies (plus selective enforcement from day one). I’m disagreeing with the pundits who think that because the Republicans have to defend so many Senate seats in 2020 the Dems will easily win Senate control then.

  265. Only the best people.
    I definitely read about Epstein and his Get Out of Jail Free card. I suspect that it, and Acosta’s involvement, got less play simply because there is such an ongoing plethora of scandals. Of all descriptions.
    Besides, how can you get excited about a sex scandal like this when you’ve got Trump center stage? (Not to mention folks like Kavanaugh.)

  266. Only the best people.
    I definitely read about Epstein and his Get Out of Jail Free card. I suspect that it, and Acosta’s involvement, got less play simply because there is such an ongoing plethora of scandals. Of all descriptions.
    Besides, how can you get excited about a sex scandal like this when you’ve got Trump center stage? (Not to mention folks like Kavanaugh.)

  267. The first step in the process is a joint budget resolution (ie, the House must agree) with explicit reconciliation instructions. It seems to me unlikely that the House will be approving any of those for the next couple of years.
    Actually, Michael, I could see the House being quite willing to allow reconciliation. Because that would mean they need fewer Republican votes to get thru the Senate. It’s not like reconciliation is going to hamper them in the House.

  268. The first step in the process is a joint budget resolution (ie, the House must agree) with explicit reconciliation instructions. It seems to me unlikely that the House will be approving any of those for the next couple of years.
    Actually, Michael, I could see the House being quite willing to allow reconciliation. Because that would mean they need fewer Republican votes to get thru the Senate. It’s not like reconciliation is going to hamper them in the House.

  269. Some of Russia’s investments in Western politics pay off better than others. (Although even the less-than-successful oneshave proven useful in damaging Putin’s opponents.) Consider this imperfect success.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-russian-bank-gave-marine-le-pens-party-a-loan-then-weird-things-began-happening/2018/12/27/960c7906-d320-11e8-a275-81c671a50422_story.html
    I was particularly taken by this bit:

    When French politician Marine Le Pen needed cash for her far-right party, an obscure Russian bank agreed to help.
    Four years later, the bank has gone bust. The owner is facing a warrant for his arrest. Former Russian military officers are demanding money. And the party’s treasurer is sending off some $165,000 every few months to a woman in Moscow, unsure of where the payments ultimately will go.

    Kind of gives a glimmer of what might be going on behind the scenes here with Trump. And in the UK with the Brexit campaigners.

  270. Some of Russia’s investments in Western politics pay off better than others. (Although even the less-than-successful oneshave proven useful in damaging Putin’s opponents.) Consider this imperfect success.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-russian-bank-gave-marine-le-pens-party-a-loan-then-weird-things-began-happening/2018/12/27/960c7906-d320-11e8-a275-81c671a50422_story.html
    I was particularly taken by this bit:

    When French politician Marine Le Pen needed cash for her far-right party, an obscure Russian bank agreed to help.
    Four years later, the bank has gone bust. The owner is facing a warrant for his arrest. Former Russian military officers are demanding money. And the party’s treasurer is sending off some $165,000 every few months to a woman in Moscow, unsure of where the payments ultimately will go.

    Kind of gives a glimmer of what might be going on behind the scenes here with Trump. And in the UK with the Brexit campaigners.

  271. Besides, how can you get excited about a sex scandal like this when you’ve got Trump center stage? (Not to mention folks like Kavanaugh.)
    I hope you don’t think I’m being closed-minded, or too sensitive, but to me a sex scandal is something like a married politician having an affair or two. Or perhaps being caught using prostitutes. It seems to me that statutory rape and/or paedophilia on an industrial scale, trafficking for the purpose of statutory rape, and bribery and corruption (by perpetrators or lawyers) in order to reduce or even evade charges and punishment is something different from what is commonly understood as a “sex scandal”.
    Clearly, I’m not trying to minimise Trumpian crimes and misdemeanors (at least the ones we know about), nor Kavanaugh’s history, but this story seems to me to be something qualitatively and quantitatively in a different league.

  272. Besides, how can you get excited about a sex scandal like this when you’ve got Trump center stage? (Not to mention folks like Kavanaugh.)
    I hope you don’t think I’m being closed-minded, or too sensitive, but to me a sex scandal is something like a married politician having an affair or two. Or perhaps being caught using prostitutes. It seems to me that statutory rape and/or paedophilia on an industrial scale, trafficking for the purpose of statutory rape, and bribery and corruption (by perpetrators or lawyers) in order to reduce or even evade charges and punishment is something different from what is commonly understood as a “sex scandal”.
    Clearly, I’m not trying to minimise Trumpian crimes and misdemeanors (at least the ones we know about), nor Kavanaugh’s history, but this story seems to me to be something qualitatively and quantitatively in a different league.

  273. While I would agree in principle that an affair may not be a big deal, the fact that American voters will make it a big deal means that it (normally) is a big deal for a politician. Not because Americans are naturally more virtuous than other people; but one of our exceptional qualities is the ability to do hypocrisy better than others. (It’s a gift!)
    As for Trump vs Kavanaugh, I would point to Trump’s lifetime history. It would be amazing if he didn’t have the same kind of statutory rape history. It just got buried in more recent scandals. And it wouldn’t be surprising either if he spent some “quality time” with his buddy Epstein, too.

  274. While I would agree in principle that an affair may not be a big deal, the fact that American voters will make it a big deal means that it (normally) is a big deal for a politician. Not because Americans are naturally more virtuous than other people; but one of our exceptional qualities is the ability to do hypocrisy better than others. (It’s a gift!)
    As for Trump vs Kavanaugh, I would point to Trump’s lifetime history. It would be amazing if he didn’t have the same kind of statutory rape history. It just got buried in more recent scandals. And it wouldn’t be surprising either if he spent some “quality time” with his buddy Epstein, too.

  275. wj, when it comes to sex scandals, IOKIYAR.
    Pee Tape.
    Sen. Vitter.
    Sure, it’s possible for R’s to get caught up in a sex scandal so huge that they don’t survive it. But they have to be exceptional, probably involving goats.

  276. wj, when it comes to sex scandals, IOKIYAR.
    Pee Tape.
    Sen. Vitter.
    Sure, it’s possible for R’s to get caught up in a sex scandal so huge that they don’t survive it. But they have to be exceptional, probably involving goats.

  277. Sure, it’s possible for R’s to get caught up in a sex scandal so huge that they don’t survive it. But they have to be exceptional, probably involving goats.
    Snarki, when (and it is when, not if, overall) things change, they do so in a pattern. Consider, just by way of example, gay marriage. No real question but that views have changed over the last quarter century, right? And what was the pattern?
    First, so views changed (slightly!) on the left. Then the new views became not too exceptional on the left, while showing minimal (although there were a few of us) on the right. Then, it became normal pretty much everywhere — a few pockets remaining, but fewer every year.
    So we can expect to find similar moves of views on (heterosexual, outside marriage) sex. Mistreat women, and you are currently toast if you are supported by liberals; if your supporters are conservatives, they basically don’t want to know — hypocrisy is so much easier that way. In my youth, all politicians got away with that (think FDR or JFK). In another decade or two, the society-wide norms will have mostly finished shifting.

  278. Sure, it’s possible for R’s to get caught up in a sex scandal so huge that they don’t survive it. But they have to be exceptional, probably involving goats.
    Snarki, when (and it is when, not if, overall) things change, they do so in a pattern. Consider, just by way of example, gay marriage. No real question but that views have changed over the last quarter century, right? And what was the pattern?
    First, so views changed (slightly!) on the left. Then the new views became not too exceptional on the left, while showing minimal (although there were a few of us) on the right. Then, it became normal pretty much everywhere — a few pockets remaining, but fewer every year.
    So we can expect to find similar moves of views on (heterosexual, outside marriage) sex. Mistreat women, and you are currently toast if you are supported by liberals; if your supporters are conservatives, they basically don’t want to know — hypocrisy is so much easier that way. In my youth, all politicians got away with that (think FDR or JFK). In another decade or two, the society-wide norms will have mostly finished shifting.

  279. Sex is overrated, scandal-wise.
    When (some, exceptionally deplorable) people are willing to kowtow to a draft dodging, tax cheating, race baiting dictator worshiper, what’s a little pussy grabbing here and there?
    If the Third Lady of the United States doesn’t mind, is it reasonable to expect the sturdy yeomen of the “white working class” to hold his sexual peccadilloes against her trophy husband?
    No.
    Also, nihilism, narcissism, and nepotism are perfectly acceptable as long as they are bundled with cutting taxes for the rich, appointing reactionary judges, and trash-talking libruls. No lie is too flagrant to defend, no flattery is too embarrassing to engage in, no principle is too shameful to jettison, in favor of He, Trump’s “(Republican) policies”.
    Sex qua sex, as in Mark Sanford’s Appalachian Trail adventure, was acceptable to the Republicans of South Carolina; insufficiently applauding Dear Leader was not. “Sex” as in molesting children or harassing women is something only politically correct social justice warriors complain about, which is good enough reason for the MAGA crowd to pooh-pooh it.
    –TP

  280. Sex is overrated, scandal-wise.
    When (some, exceptionally deplorable) people are willing to kowtow to a draft dodging, tax cheating, race baiting dictator worshiper, what’s a little pussy grabbing here and there?
    If the Third Lady of the United States doesn’t mind, is it reasonable to expect the sturdy yeomen of the “white working class” to hold his sexual peccadilloes against her trophy husband?
    No.
    Also, nihilism, narcissism, and nepotism are perfectly acceptable as long as they are bundled with cutting taxes for the rich, appointing reactionary judges, and trash-talking libruls. No lie is too flagrant to defend, no flattery is too embarrassing to engage in, no principle is too shameful to jettison, in favor of He, Trump’s “(Republican) policies”.
    Sex qua sex, as in Mark Sanford’s Appalachian Trail adventure, was acceptable to the Republicans of South Carolina; insufficiently applauding Dear Leader was not. “Sex” as in molesting children or harassing women is something only politically correct social justice warriors complain about, which is good enough reason for the MAGA crowd to pooh-pooh it.
    –TP

  283. I’m with GftNC. “Both sides” don’t engage in organized statutory rape criminal enterprises. The Epstein case is not a “sex scandal”. it’s organized crime against children.
    Marty, the Republican Alabama Attorney General thinks that Roy Moore is a victim? You Republicans are always lying (on behalf of one another, or just whining yourselves) about being victims. Not a surprise. Sad that you’re in your declining years making common cause with the worst people. Hope you see your way to a better place, but it seems unlikely.

  284. I’m with GftNC. “Both sides” don’t engage in organized statutory rape criminal enterprises. The Epstein case is not a “sex scandal”. it’s organized crime against children.
    Marty, the Republican Alabama Attorney General thinks that Roy Moore is a victim? You Republicans are always lying (on behalf of one another, or just whining yourselves) about being victims. Not a surprise. Sad that you’re in your declining years making common cause with the worst people. Hope you see your way to a better place, but it seems unlikely.

  285. sapient, while I understand where you’re coming from, it should be noted that Senator Jones has perviously (a couple of weeks ago) called for an investigation into the disinformation campaign. Just what is there remains to be seen. But it appears that, unlike other cases which I’m sure you can cite, this one wasn’t made up out of whole cloth.
    “Even a blind pig gets an acorn now and then.”

  286. sapient, while I understand where you’re coming from, it should be noted that Senator Jones has perviously (a couple of weeks ago) called for an investigation into the disinformation campaign. Just what is there remains to be seen. But it appears that, unlike other cases which I’m sure you can cite, this one wasn’t made up out of whole cloth.
    “Even a blind pig gets an acorn now and then.”

  287. it should be noted that Senator Jones has perviously (a couple of weeks ago) called for an investigation into the disinformation campaign.
    Why is that noteworthy? Of course, Democrats support fair elections, and investigations into questionable behavior. That’s the rule, not the exception.
    What was the disinformation? Roy Jones dated teenagers when he was in his thirties. Maybe that’s fine in Alabama. Maybe it’s fine generally.
    What is alleged to have been a lie?
    I would suggest that we discuss whether it’s okay for a thirty-year-old to have relationships with teenagers which involve sexual touching. Did it happen? In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, this kind of conduct was okay (as long as marriage ensued). Maybe it’s okay now.
    The article is extremely vague on the allegations of disinformation.

  288. it should be noted that Senator Jones has perviously (a couple of weeks ago) called for an investigation into the disinformation campaign.
    Why is that noteworthy? Of course, Democrats support fair elections, and investigations into questionable behavior. That’s the rule, not the exception.
    What was the disinformation? Roy Jones dated teenagers when he was in his thirties. Maybe that’s fine in Alabama. Maybe it’s fine generally.
    What is alleged to have been a lie?
    I would suggest that we discuss whether it’s okay for a thirty-year-old to have relationships with teenagers which involve sexual touching. Did it happen? In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, this kind of conduct was okay (as long as marriage ensued). Maybe it’s okay now.
    The article is extremely vague on the allegations of disinformation.

  289. I’m with GftNC also. Bill Clinton was the original person associated with Epstein in the news, multiple trips with him,then Trump. If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.

  290. I’m with GftNC also. Bill Clinton was the original person associated with Epstein in the news, multiple trips with him,then Trump. If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.

  291. I’m disagreeing with the pundits who think that because the Republicans have to defend so many Senate seats in 2020 the Dems will easily win Senate control then.
    pundits are overrated.
    easily, probably not. it just makes their odds better.
    If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.
    No doubt.
    I try not to focus all that much on personalities. You can find creeps everywhere.
    Personalities aside, some points of view are more constructive than others. By “constructive” I mean creating outcomes that are not harmful.
    (R) policies suck. Because the ideology and motivations behind them suck.
    To some degree, I leave Trump to the side, because he is sui generis. He is so uniquely toxic and hideously unqualified for the office he holds that I find it hard to account for him in my understanding of the American political scene. He’s a one-man political freak show.
    But even if you factor his uniquely bizarre personality out, the (R) agenda on the basic merits is just crap. Harmful toxic crap.
    Both sides include individuals who are creepy weirdos. What can I say, power attracts distorted, damaged psyches. That said, both sides don’t advocate for policies that result in the immiseration of millions of human beings.
    Pick a side.

  292. I’m disagreeing with the pundits who think that because the Republicans have to defend so many Senate seats in 2020 the Dems will easily win Senate control then.
    pundits are overrated.
    easily, probably not. it just makes their odds better.
    If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.
    No doubt.
    I try not to focus all that much on personalities. You can find creeps everywhere.
    Personalities aside, some points of view are more constructive than others. By “constructive” I mean creating outcomes that are not harmful.
    (R) policies suck. Because the ideology and motivations behind them suck.
    To some degree, I leave Trump to the side, because he is sui generis. He is so uniquely toxic and hideously unqualified for the office he holds that I find it hard to account for him in my understanding of the American political scene. He’s a one-man political freak show.
    But even if you factor his uniquely bizarre personality out, the (R) agenda on the basic merits is just crap. Harmful toxic crap.
    Both sides include individuals who are creepy weirdos. What can I say, power attracts distorted, damaged psyches. That said, both sides don’t advocate for policies that result in the immiseration of millions of human beings.
    Pick a side.

  293. What was the disinformation? Roy Jones dated teenagers when he was in his thirties. Maybe that’s fine in Alabama. Maybe it’s fine generally.
    What is alleged to have been a lie?
    All excellent questions. Which, one hopes, an investigation will address.

  294. What was the disinformation? Roy Jones dated teenagers when he was in his thirties. Maybe that’s fine in Alabama. Maybe it’s fine generally.
    What is alleged to have been a lie?
    All excellent questions. Which, one hopes, an investigation will address.

  295. If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.
    This is clearly and demonstrably true. And just to clarify, not only was I NOT making a partisan point, I was trying (apparently rather inadequately) to differentiate “sex scandals”, (which in my eyes is a term which often refers to unremarkable – usually non-criminal – human activities like affairs, threesomes, use of prostitutes etc) despite their ability to raise a political stink among the hypocritical American public, from activities like those of Epstein and his enablers which involved not only wholesale amounts of paedophilia and statutory rape, but also trafficking, bribery and corruption. If Sanford’s Appalachian Trail adventures constituted a “sex scandal”, we need a new word for this. sapient’s “organised crime against children” is a start, and covers the Catholic Church and the Rotherham (and others’) grooming gangs, but “sex scandals” they are not.

  296. If there is a truth it’s that malignant people exist in all walks of life. And all parties.
    This is clearly and demonstrably true. And just to clarify, not only was I NOT making a partisan point, I was trying (apparently rather inadequately) to differentiate “sex scandals”, (which in my eyes is a term which often refers to unremarkable – usually non-criminal – human activities like affairs, threesomes, use of prostitutes etc) despite their ability to raise a political stink among the hypocritical American public, from activities like those of Epstein and his enablers which involved not only wholesale amounts of paedophilia and statutory rape, but also trafficking, bribery and corruption. If Sanford’s Appalachian Trail adventures constituted a “sex scandal”, we need a new word for this. sapient’s “organised crime against children” is a start, and covers the Catholic Church and the Rotherham (and others’) grooming gangs, but “sex scandals” they are not.

  297. it’s cute that the GOP is trying to gin-up a domestic clone of the Mueller case.
    problem is, it’s domestic. starting a FB page to lie about a political opponent is what the 1st A is all about.
    now, if they can show that a foreign country was involved, and that the Dems knew and solicited that? while breaking dozens of laws in the process? that would be news.
    but if it’s going to be about spreading rumors on FB? LOL.

  298. it’s cute that the GOP is trying to gin-up a domestic clone of the Mueller case.
    problem is, it’s domestic. starting a FB page to lie about a political opponent is what the 1st A is all about.
    now, if they can show that a foreign country was involved, and that the Dems knew and solicited that? while breaking dozens of laws in the process? that would be news.
    but if it’s going to be about spreading rumors on FB? LOL.

  299. But cleek, that’s the way the game is played. You play the cards you are dealt, good or bad.
    If you aren’t holding, sometimes all you can do is run a bluff and see if you can sucker the others. In this case, “the others” being mostly the voters.
    And let’s face it, having Roy Moore as their candidate definitely constituted “not holding”.

  300. But cleek, that’s the way the game is played. You play the cards you are dealt, good or bad.
    If you aren’t holding, sometimes all you can do is run a bluff and see if you can sucker the others. In this case, “the others” being mostly the voters.
    And let’s face it, having Roy Moore as their candidate definitely constituted “not holding”.

  303. From President Trump this morning:

    We will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall

    There are a bunch of really bright people here. So maybe somebody can explain to me why, if we are in a position to entirely shut down the border, we still need a wall. I didn’t realize an air gap would work as insulation when it came to people….

  304. From President Trump this morning:

    We will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall

    There are a bunch of really bright people here. So maybe somebody can explain to me why, if we are in a position to entirely shut down the border, we still need a wall. I didn’t realize an air gap would work as insulation when it came to people….

  305. wj, if you’re still looking for anything resembling logic that you and I would recognize as such, you need to pay better attention. 😉
    The only logic here is Clickbait logic: Clickbait isn’t getting his way, so someone has to be punished. All the better if he and his enablers (some right here close to home) can frame the punishment as the fault of his enemies. Of course, they can frame anything as the fault of his enemies, there’s no recognizable logic to that, either.
    The punishment, of course, is that thousands of ordinary, unremarkable people whose ordinary, unremarkable agendas involve crossing the border would be prevented from doing so, to great inconvenience, grief, and cost in $. None of it will hurt Clickbait, so all is well.
    As to what I take to be your actual logic: I do agree that the very thing he professes to want to prevent (illegal crossings) would not be hindered in the slightest by the closing of the official border crossing points. But again — all that’s important is to hurt someone if he doesn’t get his way. It doesn’t have to be anyone connected with what he professes to want. All the better if it isn’t; that adds a nice touch of extortion to the operation.

  306. wj, if you’re still looking for anything resembling logic that you and I would recognize as such, you need to pay better attention. 😉
    The only logic here is Clickbait logic: Clickbait isn’t getting his way, so someone has to be punished. All the better if he and his enablers (some right here close to home) can frame the punishment as the fault of his enemies. Of course, they can frame anything as the fault of his enemies, there’s no recognizable logic to that, either.
    The punishment, of course, is that thousands of ordinary, unremarkable people whose ordinary, unremarkable agendas involve crossing the border would be prevented from doing so, to great inconvenience, grief, and cost in $. None of it will hurt Clickbait, so all is well.
    As to what I take to be your actual logic: I do agree that the very thing he professes to want to prevent (illegal crossings) would not be hindered in the slightest by the closing of the official border crossing points. But again — all that’s important is to hurt someone if he doesn’t get his way. It doesn’t have to be anyone connected with what he professes to want. All the better if it isn’t; that adds a nice touch of extortion to the operation.

  307. Janie, not to worry. I long since figured out that Trump and logic (or consistency) are not only not even passing acquaintances, they may well be best enemies. If only because they so often thwart him.
    Still, it can be amusing (at least the closest we can get from these guys) to watch his enablers** contort themselves trying to “explain” how what he spews is actually coherent.
    ** That is, those who know he’s batty, but persist in thinking (no matter all the evidence to the contrary) that they can use him by flattering him. As opposed to those who know they can use him because they’ve got the goods on him.

  308. Janie, not to worry. I long since figured out that Trump and logic (or consistency) are not only not even passing acquaintances, they may well be best enemies. If only because they so often thwart him.
    Still, it can be amusing (at least the closest we can get from these guys) to watch his enablers** contort themselves trying to “explain” how what he spews is actually coherent.
    ** That is, those who know he’s batty, but persist in thinking (no matter all the evidence to the contrary) that they can use him by flattering him. As opposed to those who know they can use him because they’ve got the goods on him.

  309. wj, I’ve always assumed that “close the border” means stopping legal as well as illegal crossings. There are what, something like 750,000 legal crossings per day? Economies in the four US border states would get hammered, not to mention the northern tier of Mexican states. At this time of year, fresh produce shortages.
    Not clear under what conditions the President has legal standing to do so.

  310. wj, I’ve always assumed that “close the border” means stopping legal as well as illegal crossings. There are what, something like 750,000 legal crossings per day? Economies in the four US border states would get hammered, not to mention the northern tier of Mexican states. At this time of year, fresh produce shortages.
    Not clear under what conditions the President has legal standing to do so.

  311. I have to think Trump is in first place, just 2 years into his presidency, for the number of headlines with the words “Threatens To” after his name.

  312. I have to think Trump is in first place, just 2 years into his presidency, for the number of headlines with the words “Threatens To” after his name.

  313. Economies in the four US border states would get hammered, not to mention the northern tier of Mexican states.
    Not to mention businesses across the industrial Midwest. There are an awful lot of supply chains which run thru Mexico.
    As for “what conditions”? “National Emergency” can cover almost anything. With minimal if any restrictions on what can be so characterized. It’s one of those places where our institutions implicitly assume that the guy in charge will be compos mentis and understands what he is doing. AND well intentioned. Doesn’t work so well when none of those are true.

  314. Economies in the four US border states would get hammered, not to mention the northern tier of Mexican states.
    Not to mention businesses across the industrial Midwest. There are an awful lot of supply chains which run thru Mexico.
    As for “what conditions”? “National Emergency” can cover almost anything. With minimal if any restrictions on what can be so characterized. It’s one of those places where our institutions implicitly assume that the guy in charge will be compos mentis and understands what he is doing. AND well intentioned. Doesn’t work so well when none of those are true.

  315. As for “what conditions”? “National Emergency” can cover almost anything.
    thankfully, the self-proclaimed party of the Rule of Law and Law and Order and Objective Truth will never sit back and let Trump make a mockery of our national security.

  316. As for “what conditions”? “National Emergency” can cover almost anything.
    thankfully, the self-proclaimed party of the Rule of Law and Law and Order and Objective Truth will never sit back and let Trump make a mockery of our national security.

  319. How do you “close the border”? If you’re Horatius, and the border is a single bridge, you can personally stand there swinging your mashie niblick at the head of anyone who dares approach. Otherwise, you have to give orders to people who give orders to people who give orders to people who get paid (eventually) to stand athwart a river of traffic and yell “Stop”. And of course you have to count on that chain of people to all obey your orders, from top to bottom.
    Now, a corps of civil servants who can NOT be counted on, at all levels of the hierarchy, to obey every order issued in proper legal form would amount to a pretty shaky foundation for any political system. But a corps of civil servants who CAN be counted on to robotically execute every “lawful” order is a necessary ingredient of autocracy.
    The US political system needs an obedient civil service in order to “work”, but it has also shown itself capable of electing a would-be autocrat to run it. Can we Americans still claim to have a working political system?
    –TP

  320. How do you “close the border”? If you’re Horatius, and the border is a single bridge, you can personally stand there swinging your mashie niblick at the head of anyone who dares approach. Otherwise, you have to give orders to people who give orders to people who give orders to people who get paid (eventually) to stand athwart a river of traffic and yell “Stop”. And of course you have to count on that chain of people to all obey your orders, from top to bottom.
    Now, a corps of civil servants who can NOT be counted on, at all levels of the hierarchy, to obey every order issued in proper legal form would amount to a pretty shaky foundation for any political system. But a corps of civil servants who CAN be counted on to robotically execute every “lawful” order is a necessary ingredient of autocracy.
    The US political system needs an obedient civil service in order to “work”, but it has also shown itself capable of electing a would-be autocrat to run it. Can we Americans still claim to have a working political system?
    –TP

  321. he’ll try to close the border by decree and it’ll get immediately challenged in court and he’ll lose and then he’ll whine about how unfair the Democrats’ laws are to him.

  322. he’ll try to close the border by decree and it’ll get immediately challenged in court and he’ll lose and then he’ll whine about how unfair the Democrats’ laws are to him.

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