314 thoughts on “A Tuesday thread”

  1. Having the polls open at 7 AM means poll workers need to be on-site at 6 AM. Which means I’ll be getting up at 5 AM Tuesday.
    Polls close at 8 PM; with luck, we’ll be packed up and ready to leave by 9 PM. (I’m spared the trip to take the ballots to the county seat. Those folks have an even longer day.) 15 hour day — and if I’m calculating correctly, and ignoring questions about overtime, getting less than minimum wage. Whee!

  2. Having the polls open at 7 AM means poll workers need to be on-site at 6 AM. Which means I’ll be getting up at 5 AM Tuesday.
    Polls close at 8 PM; with luck, we’ll be packed up and ready to leave by 9 PM. (I’m spared the trip to take the ballots to the county seat. Those folks have an even longer day.) 15 hour day — and if I’m calculating correctly, and ignoring questions about overtime, getting less than minimum wage. Whee!

  3. Sometimes, it’s quite simple…
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/all-the-ugliness-of-the-trump-campaign-is-on-display-in-georgia/2018/11/05/5420e71e-e141-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html
    The president also said last Thursday that Ms. Abrams “is not qualified to be the governor of Georgia.” Ms. Abrams graduated from Yale Law School and worked her way up to become minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, a position she held for six years. She is not only more qualified than her opponent to be governor, she is more qualified than Mr. Trump to be president. What absence of qualification could Mr. Trump possibly have been referring to, other than that she is not white?

  4. Sometimes, it’s quite simple…
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/all-the-ugliness-of-the-trump-campaign-is-on-display-in-georgia/2018/11/05/5420e71e-e141-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html
    The president also said last Thursday that Ms. Abrams “is not qualified to be the governor of Georgia.” Ms. Abrams graduated from Yale Law School and worked her way up to become minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, a position she held for six years. She is not only more qualified than her opponent to be governor, she is more qualified than Mr. Trump to be president. What absence of qualification could Mr. Trump possibly have been referring to, other than that she is not white?

  5. She’s also dickless in the plumbing and gunless for the threefer.
    He was also referencing the vast absence in himself …. and within the entire infestation of the conservative movement that birthed his monstrous, beclowned, death-dealing self … that unmapped, desertified ever-encroaching region of willful ignorance and inhumanity, that howling, diseased vacuole of repugnant indecency and hate they have been nurturing and encoding into law these many decades, that forever licked and picked over scab of the country’s many original sins they are intent on ruthlessly cauterizing their way, with no taxes, plenty of bullets, and the invocations of a wrathful, never-satiated multi-jawed, unrepentant God Inc.
    They would read you chapter and verse, but those pages in Atlas Shrugged were long ago stuck together during the one-handed paroxysms of their misbegotten youth.

  6. She’s also dickless in the plumbing and gunless for the threefer.
    He was also referencing the vast absence in himself …. and within the entire infestation of the conservative movement that birthed his monstrous, beclowned, death-dealing self … that unmapped, desertified ever-encroaching region of willful ignorance and inhumanity, that howling, diseased vacuole of repugnant indecency and hate they have been nurturing and encoding into law these many decades, that forever licked and picked over scab of the country’s many original sins they are intent on ruthlessly cauterizing their way, with no taxes, plenty of bullets, and the invocations of a wrathful, never-satiated multi-jawed, unrepentant God Inc.
    They would read you chapter and verse, but those pages in Atlas Shrugged were long ago stuck together during the one-handed paroxysms of their misbegotten youth.

  13. What absence of qualification could Mr. Trump possibly have been referring to, other than that she is not white?
    As the Count noted, being female is, for Trump (and a lot of his worshipers), also an automatic disqualification.
    I’m not so sure Trump would regard “gunless” as a disqualification. A great cudgel to attack her with, certainly, but probably not a reason to say “not qualified.”

  14. What absence of qualification could Mr. Trump possibly have been referring to, other than that she is not white?
    As the Count noted, being female is, for Trump (and a lot of his worshipers), also an automatic disqualification.
    I’m not so sure Trump would regard “gunless” as a disqualification. A great cudgel to attack her with, certainly, but probably not a reason to say “not qualified.”

  15. A prediction for Georgia (because why not): Abrams squeezes part 50% by a few hundred votes. Her opponent doesn’t demand a recount (in the hopes of forcing a recount; he’s too far behind for one to put him in the lead). Instead he just used his position as Secretary of State to just initiate one.

  16. A prediction for Georgia (because why not): Abrams squeezes part 50% by a few hundred votes. Her opponent doesn’t demand a recount (in the hopes of forcing a recount; he’s too far behind for one to put him in the lead). Instead he just used his position as Secretary of State to just initiate one.

  19. The president also said last Thursday that Ms. Abrams “is not qualified to be the governor of Georgia.”
    The relationship of things Trump says to the truth is at best co-incidental.
    He intends neither to be truthful, or to lie. He intends to have an effect.
    His supporters are, likewise, not interested in the truth or falsity of what he says. His words are a flag around which they will rally.
    His words are best ignored. His actions are best resisted.

  20. The president also said last Thursday that Ms. Abrams “is not qualified to be the governor of Georgia.”
    The relationship of things Trump says to the truth is at best co-incidental.
    He intends neither to be truthful, or to lie. He intends to have an effect.
    His supporters are, likewise, not interested in the truth or falsity of what he says. His words are a flag around which they will rally.
    His words are best ignored. His actions are best resisted.

  27. Republican vermin elect ’em.
    I say, if they elect a dead guy, then they need to dig him up and send a dead guy to the statehouse.
    And let him do his best to vote.

  28. Republican vermin elect ’em.
    I say, if they elect a dead guy, then they need to dig him up and send a dead guy to the statehouse.
    And let him do his best to vote.

  29. Civilization abandons the great state of Iowa.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/king-blocks-des-moines-paper-covering-election
    The bloody Civil War II long desired by the vermin in the republican party started two weeks ago with the republican-White House-ordered murders of the Other around the country.
    The free press’ journalists should avail themselves of whatever maximum carried armed deadly force is permitted in Iowa and fight their way into every political event, including polling places, republican filth prevent them from entering and exercising their First Amendment rights in covering a fucking election.
    Here’s the flaw in voting: Even when republican/conservative scum like Steve King lose an election, they remain among the living and morph into even more murderous monsters.

  30. Civilization abandons the great state of Iowa.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/king-blocks-des-moines-paper-covering-election
    The bloody Civil War II long desired by the vermin in the republican party started two weeks ago with the republican-White House-ordered murders of the Other around the country.
    The free press’ journalists should avail themselves of whatever maximum carried armed deadly force is permitted in Iowa and fight their way into every political event, including polling places, republican filth prevent them from entering and exercising their First Amendment rights in covering a fucking election.
    Here’s the flaw in voting: Even when republican/conservative scum like Steve King lose an election, they remain among the living and morph into even more murderous monsters.

  31. https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2018/11/fox-news-employees-unaware-working-right-wing-propaganda-outlet
    Other headlines today:
    Apple employees SHOCKED their company sells smartphones.
    Amazon workers go on mass strike, say company told them they’d be living on a big river in a rain forest.
    General Mills cereal makers demand fainting couch after learning about the link between Cheerios and breakfast.
    Worldwide Wrestling Federation referees quit; cite their integrity takes hit by lack of reality, breakaway chairs, and fake blood capsules concealed on contestants. “Something is fishy” charges one.
    McDonald’s customers eat Happy Meals, report little change in mood. Rioting ensues.
    Graveyard diggers put down shovels, say it’s as if everyone they bury is dead.
    Bartenders’ union walks out; complain all people want from us is alcohol.
    Americans say “Ah, just fuck me”, ignoring 250 years of exceptional fucking.
    Nuclear weapons workers return to work, cite President’s desire to use their product as soon as possible.
    Elon Musk.
    That’s right, Elon Musk.

  32. https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2018/11/fox-news-employees-unaware-working-right-wing-propaganda-outlet
    Other headlines today:
    Apple employees SHOCKED their company sells smartphones.
    Amazon workers go on mass strike, say company told them they’d be living on a big river in a rain forest.
    General Mills cereal makers demand fainting couch after learning about the link between Cheerios and breakfast.
    Worldwide Wrestling Federation referees quit; cite their integrity takes hit by lack of reality, breakaway chairs, and fake blood capsules concealed on contestants. “Something is fishy” charges one.
    McDonald’s customers eat Happy Meals, report little change in mood. Rioting ensues.
    Graveyard diggers put down shovels, say it’s as if everyone they bury is dead.
    Bartenders’ union walks out; complain all people want from us is alcohol.
    Americans say “Ah, just fuck me”, ignoring 250 years of exceptional fucking.
    Nuclear weapons workers return to work, cite President’s desire to use their product as soon as possible.
    Elon Musk.
    That’s right, Elon Musk.

  35. A friend in Bloomington IN reports that Monroe County IN is out of ballots. Or, ‘out of ballots’. Don’t know which, maybe slarti knows.
    In recent decades, Monroe County has been (D)-leaning. Which is atypical of IN as a whole.
    And hairshirt, friends don’t let friends sleep with breakfast cereals.

  36. A friend in Bloomington IN reports that Monroe County IN is out of ballots. Or, ‘out of ballots’. Don’t know which, maybe slarti knows.
    In recent decades, Monroe County has been (D)-leaning. Which is atypical of IN as a whole.
    And hairshirt, friends don’t let friends sleep with breakfast cereals.

  39. There’s a link between Cheerios and breakfast? I thought they were just for sex.
    Lowercase, singular is for parting after breakfast or sex.

  40. There’s a link between Cheerios and breakfast? I thought they were just for sex.
    Lowercase, singular is for parting after breakfast or sex.

  41. Out of ballots?
    On election day?
    Many of the all-you-can-eat buffet restaurants in Monroe County are changing their menu today to read: “A Few Odds and Ends to Nibble, Probably Nothing You Could Stomach”
    Saturday is the county’s fishless fish fry.
    Come One, Come …. go away.

  42. Out of ballots?
    On election day?
    Many of the all-you-can-eat buffet restaurants in Monroe County are changing their menu today to read: “A Few Odds and Ends to Nibble, Probably Nothing You Could Stomach”
    Saturday is the county’s fishless fish fry.
    Come One, Come …. go away.

  43. Can I say I hate vote by mail? I like going in to vote. Of course, my local spot is right across from my office. But it doesn’t quite feel like voting to me to put it in the mail. Plus I don’t get a sticker.

  44. Can I say I hate vote by mail? I like going in to vote. Of course, my local spot is right across from my office. But it doesn’t quite feel like voting to me to put it in the mail. Plus I don’t get a sticker.

  45. @bc, do you live in a high growth-rate state? My state has been growing at insane rates for 30 years. The voting sites kept changing, sometimes from year to year. The lines were long, then longer. As soon as no-excuse permanent absentee voting was available, a large percentage of the voters jumped on it. Then once it hit a certain percentage, it just made no sense to spend a ton of money keeping precinct-sized voting around to make a small part of the electorate happy.

  46. @bc, do you live in a high growth-rate state? My state has been growing at insane rates for 30 years. The voting sites kept changing, sometimes from year to year. The lines were long, then longer. As soon as no-excuse permanent absentee voting was available, a large percentage of the voters jumped on it. Then once it hit a certain percentage, it just made no sense to spend a ton of money keeping precinct-sized voting around to make a small part of the electorate happy.

  47. Michael Cain: I live in California, but rural. I get that it makes sense in many places. It’s just a personal thing.

  48. Michael Cain: I live in California, but rural. I get that it makes sense in many places. It’s just a personal thing.

  49. Things went pretty much as advertised here in the Great Wet North-of-the-city. Turnout seemed brisk, but not appreciably busier than 2016. Was tempted to write in Vermin Supreme for the uncontested(R) county clerk spot.
    Taking back the House is imperative and I started getting that sinking feeling when it didn’t look good early on. But I’m not gonna say I’m thrilled with the Blue… I dunno… Step-In-The-Right-Direction-Kinda?
    It might take me a while to figure out if it’s just the sting of the dawning realization that I do not share a common reality with an alarming number of fellow citizens or if my faith in legitimate elections has been permanently and irreparably shaken. I expect a certain amount of shenanigans, but I feel like we’re halfway across the Rubicon and damn the torpedos.
    Of course, Trump will tout the Senate gains as mandate.
    Et tu, New England Gubernatorial contests?

  50. Things went pretty much as advertised here in the Great Wet North-of-the-city. Turnout seemed brisk, but not appreciably busier than 2016. Was tempted to write in Vermin Supreme for the uncontested(R) county clerk spot.
    Taking back the House is imperative and I started getting that sinking feeling when it didn’t look good early on. But I’m not gonna say I’m thrilled with the Blue… I dunno… Step-In-The-Right-Direction-Kinda?
    It might take me a while to figure out if it’s just the sting of the dawning realization that I do not share a common reality with an alarming number of fellow citizens or if my faith in legitimate elections has been permanently and irreparably shaken. I expect a certain amount of shenanigans, but I feel like we’re halfway across the Rubicon and damn the torpedos.
    Of course, Trump will tout the Senate gains as mandate.
    Et tu, New England Gubernatorial contests?

  57. I certainly feel the attraction of having a civic event, where the people in the community come to the polls.
    Plus, it gives the senior citizens something to keep them off the streets and out of trouble, also, too.

  58. I certainly feel the attraction of having a civic event, where the people in the community come to the polls.
    Plus, it gives the senior citizens something to keep them off the streets and out of trouble, also, too.

  59. Civilization abandons the great state of Iowa.
    Ebbing, maybe.
    Three of Iowa’s four US Representatives are now Democrats – R incumbents Blum and Young both lost to Dem women. And King’s NW IA district has 170k registered Rs and 120 registered Ds, and skews evangelical, so it was always going to be a very heavy lift.
    I’m disappointed about Reynolds, who is a mean, narrow person.
    But my north-central IA hometown will return its excellent Democratic women to the state Legislature and Senate. Unfortunately, right next door, the odious ALEC-owned Linda Upmeyer cruised in unopposed.

  60. Civilization abandons the great state of Iowa.
    Ebbing, maybe.
    Three of Iowa’s four US Representatives are now Democrats – R incumbents Blum and Young both lost to Dem women. And King’s NW IA district has 170k registered Rs and 120 registered Ds, and skews evangelical, so it was always going to be a very heavy lift.
    I’m disappointed about Reynolds, who is a mean, narrow person.
    But my north-central IA hometown will return its excellent Democratic women to the state Legislature and Senate. Unfortunately, right next door, the odious ALEC-owned Linda Upmeyer cruised in unopposed.

  61. I say, if they elect a dead guy, then they need to dig him up and send a dead guy to the statehouse.
    This reminds me of a Missouri Senate race years ago. Mel Carnahan, the Democratic governor, was the odds-on favorite to win, but he was killed in a plane crash a month before the election. He was elected anyway, and his widow, Jean Carnahan, was appointed in his place. (She lost the special election two years later.)

  62. I say, if they elect a dead guy, then they need to dig him up and send a dead guy to the statehouse.
    This reminds me of a Missouri Senate race years ago. Mel Carnahan, the Democratic governor, was the odds-on favorite to win, but he was killed in a plane crash a month before the election. He was elected anyway, and his widow, Jean Carnahan, was appointed in his place. (She lost the special election two years later.)

  63. Quite a few firsts in the elections.
    “The midterms saw an unprecedented number of female candidates, first-time candidates and LGBT candidates for office. At least 244 lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender candidates ran for office on all levels of government this year, including 21 candidates for Congress and four for governor.
    A record one-third of the candidates running for the House were women of color, and a record number of women overall were running for office in 2018, according to Emily’s List, a Democratic-leaning nonprofit that supports women in politics. Some 234 women won House and Senate primaries in 2018. Women have never held more than 20% of congressional seats.”
    How the midterms made history: Numerous firsts emerge from Election Night results : U.S. elects its first Muslim congresswomen and its first gay governor

  64. Quite a few firsts in the elections.
    “The midterms saw an unprecedented number of female candidates, first-time candidates and LGBT candidates for office. At least 244 lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender candidates ran for office on all levels of government this year, including 21 candidates for Congress and four for governor.
    A record one-third of the candidates running for the House were women of color, and a record number of women overall were running for office in 2018, according to Emily’s List, a Democratic-leaning nonprofit that supports women in politics. Some 234 women won House and Senate primaries in 2018. Women have never held more than 20% of congressional seats.”
    How the midterms made history: Numerous firsts emerge from Election Night results : U.S. elects its first Muslim congresswomen and its first gay governor

  65. BC – Orange County sends out I Voted stickers with their mail-in ballots. You need to get on your local election board to up their game.
    I think those stickers should be scratch-and-sniff and smell like petrichor to combat the scent of cordite and inchoate rage in the public imaginary.

  66. BC – Orange County sends out I Voted stickers with their mail-in ballots. You need to get on your local election board to up their game.
    I think those stickers should be scratch-and-sniff and smell like petrichor to combat the scent of cordite and inchoate rage in the public imaginary.

  67. “Florida re-enfranchised ex felons.
    That is very good news (& might also be of significance in 2020).”
    Given the number of soon-to-be-felons republicans just re-elected nationwide and will run in 2020, I’m not sure this is a plus for the Democratic Party.
    I’m warming to the death penalty for crimes while in office.
    Plus it will be racist disgusting Willie Horton ads all the way down in Florida in 2020 given the criminal filth that state just elected.
    The fascist, racist, subhuman republican scum King and Cruz, among others, re-elected. I expect Hitler would re-evaluate his decision to not hold elections from 1933 thru 1945 given that kind of goosestepping to the polls in exceptional America.
    He could have campaigned at Madison Square Garden.

  68. “Florida re-enfranchised ex felons.
    That is very good news (& might also be of significance in 2020).”
    Given the number of soon-to-be-felons republicans just re-elected nationwide and will run in 2020, I’m not sure this is a plus for the Democratic Party.
    I’m warming to the death penalty for crimes while in office.
    Plus it will be racist disgusting Willie Horton ads all the way down in Florida in 2020 given the criminal filth that state just elected.
    The fascist, racist, subhuman republican scum King and Cruz, among others, re-elected. I expect Hitler would re-evaluate his decision to not hold elections from 1933 thru 1945 given that kind of goosestepping to the polls in exceptional America.
    He could have campaigned at Madison Square Garden.

  69. “U.S. elects its first Muslim congresswomen and its first openly gay governor”
    IIRC, a decade or so ago it turned out that NJ had elected a closeted gay governor, who resigned when it was revealed.
    By the standards of NJ corruption, it was small potatoes. Why, it’s not as if he put out traffic cones to close a major bridge or anything.

  70. “U.S. elects its first Muslim congresswomen and its first openly gay governor”
    IIRC, a decade or so ago it turned out that NJ had elected a closeted gay governor, who resigned when it was revealed.
    By the standards of NJ corruption, it was small potatoes. Why, it’s not as if he put out traffic cones to close a major bridge or anything.

  71. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-yells-at-jim-acosta
    Fuck you ya motherfucking republicans. Fuck you.
    You should get down on your knees and thank your fake gods, which are mere scarecrows stuffed with dollar bills, that the American people allow any of you to vote, let alone allow you to run the vermin you vote for, let alone entertain ourselves by free expression instead of kicking all of your fucking asses physically, all without gunfire from us every two years, unlike the constant murderous gunfire you louts aim our way.

  72. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-yells-at-jim-acosta
    Fuck you ya motherfucking republicans. Fuck you.
    You should get down on your knees and thank your fake gods, which are mere scarecrows stuffed with dollar bills, that the American people allow any of you to vote, let alone allow you to run the vermin you vote for, let alone entertain ourselves by free expression instead of kicking all of your fucking asses physically, all without gunfire from us every two years, unlike the constant murderous gunfire you louts aim our way.

  73. Orange County sends out I Voted stickers with their mail-in ballots.
    Here in Northern California, my county doesn’t send them with mail-in ballots. But does hand them out to those who drop off their “mail-in” ballots at the polls. Which, at the precinct I was working, looked to be about as many folks who were voting in person.
    We ran out of stickers an hour before closing. Partly because of the number given to kids accompanying their parents. It occured to me that anyone devoted to the fantasy of voter fraud could stand outside looking at the number of kids with “I voted!” stickers and decide he had solid evidence. (For the record, none of the kids got a ballot. I was the guy handing them to the voters, so I know.)

  74. Orange County sends out I Voted stickers with their mail-in ballots.
    Here in Northern California, my county doesn’t send them with mail-in ballots. But does hand them out to those who drop off their “mail-in” ballots at the polls. Which, at the precinct I was working, looked to be about as many folks who were voting in person.
    We ran out of stickers an hour before closing. Partly because of the number given to kids accompanying their parents. It occured to me that anyone devoted to the fantasy of voter fraud could stand outside looking at the number of kids with “I voted!” stickers and decide he had solid evidence. (For the record, none of the kids got a ballot. I was the guy handing them to the voters, so I know.)

  75. So far, the stock market doesn’t seem to mind that the terrible, awful Democrats took the House. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.

  76. So far, the stock market doesn’t seem to mind that the terrible, awful Democrats took the House. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.

  77. Piggy-backing on CharlesWT’s post, this is cool:

    2018 Election: Continuing Coverage And Results Nov. 6 By FiveThirtyEight
    Sarah Frostenson1:11 PM
    With 22 women winning seats in the Nevada Assembly, the state has scored a female majority in the chamber — a historic first for the state. And according to New York Times reporting from June, when the new legislative class is sworn in, Nevada will be first state legislature in U.S. history to have more women than men serving.

  78. Piggy-backing on CharlesWT’s post, this is cool:

    2018 Election: Continuing Coverage And Results Nov. 6 By FiveThirtyEight
    Sarah Frostenson1:11 PM
    With 22 women winning seats in the Nevada Assembly, the state has scored a female majority in the chamber — a historic first for the state. And according to New York Times reporting from June, when the new legislative class is sworn in, Nevada will be first state legislature in U.S. history to have more women than men serving.

  79. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.
    Yeah, at least for a couple of years, no tax hikes, no tax cuts, continuing resolutions for the budget so the size of government spending is known, lots of cash sloshing around because of the deficit. Trump plus Senate translates into ongoing regulatory roll-backs. What’s not to like from their view?

  80. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.
    Yeah, at least for a couple of years, no tax hikes, no tax cuts, continuing resolutions for the budget so the size of government spending is known, lots of cash sloshing around because of the deficit. Trump plus Senate translates into ongoing regulatory roll-backs. What’s not to like from their view?

  81. Michael, you left out ever larger numbers of reactionary Federal judges being appointed. Who will still be around long after Trump and McConnell are gone.

  82. Michael, you left out ever larger numbers of reactionary Federal judges being appointed. Who will still be around long after Trump and McConnell are gone.

  83. Michael, you left out ever larger numbers of reactionary Federal judges being appointed.
    From Wall Street’s perspective, that’s part of the regulatory roll-back. With too much snark, Wall Street doesn’t care about state-level voter suppression, abortion restrictions, etc, because the Wall Street folks aren’t ever going to live in “those states.”
    Just like Amazon’s HQ2 — I’ve said all along that Atlanta and Austin (to name two examples) were out of the running because Bezos wasn’t going to pick a blue city in a red state.

  84. Michael, you left out ever larger numbers of reactionary Federal judges being appointed.
    From Wall Street’s perspective, that’s part of the regulatory roll-back. With too much snark, Wall Street doesn’t care about state-level voter suppression, abortion restrictions, etc, because the Wall Street folks aren’t ever going to live in “those states.”
    Just like Amazon’s HQ2 — I’ve said all along that Atlanta and Austin (to name two examples) were out of the running because Bezos wasn’t going to pick a blue city in a red state.

  85. “The second outcome is even more important: the House of Representatives is now the most pro-immigrant that it has been since the 19th century. Current House Democrats would not only pass the broadest legalization in the history of the United States—they also would greatly expand legal immigration. No elected House Democrat is opposed to legalization, even if they would want it paired with some enforcement measures.”
    The Most Pro-Immigration House of Representatives in Over a Century

  86. “The second outcome is even more important: the House of Representatives is now the most pro-immigrant that it has been since the 19th century. Current House Democrats would not only pass the broadest legalization in the history of the United States—they also would greatly expand legal immigration. No elected House Democrat is opposed to legalization, even if they would want it paired with some enforcement measures.”
    The Most Pro-Immigration House of Representatives in Over a Century

  87. the House of Representatives is now the most pro-immigrant that it has been since the 19th century. Current House Democrats would not only pass the broadest legalization in the history of the United States—they also would greatly expand legal immigration.
    Of course, the question is: Can they get it thru the Senate once they pass it? I’d bet on no. Not because I think that a majority of voters in the states of a majority of Senators would oppose it. But because I suspect that McConnell would simply not bring it to a vote; maybe even not bother to refer it to a committee for hearings.
    Is there any reason to believe otherwise?

  88. the House of Representatives is now the most pro-immigrant that it has been since the 19th century. Current House Democrats would not only pass the broadest legalization in the history of the United States—they also would greatly expand legal immigration.
    Of course, the question is: Can they get it thru the Senate once they pass it? I’d bet on no. Not because I think that a majority of voters in the states of a majority of Senators would oppose it. But because I suspect that McConnell would simply not bring it to a vote; maybe even not bother to refer it to a committee for hearings.
    Is there any reason to believe otherwise?

  105. First two years of Trump Presidency: Awww yeah, we did some crazy a$$ sh1t, amirite?
    Second two years of Trump Presidency: Hold my beer.

  106. First two years of Trump Presidency: Awww yeah, we did some crazy a$$ sh1t, amirite?
    Second two years of Trump Presidency: Hold my beer.

  107. “So far, the stock market doesn’t seem to mind that the terrible, awful Democrats took the House. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.”
    The stock market hates only one thing: Uncertainty.
    If an asteroid was headed for Earth and it was absolutely certain that it would destroy ALL life IF it collided with our planet, but there was some uncertainty in the calculations about WHETHER it might hit us, the markets would have a gigantic nervous breakdown.
    If it passed nearby and didn’t harm, markets would soar. The bulls would be all over the place yelling “Told you so!”
    If it hit us square, in the last few nanoseconds of human existence, markets would soar. The bulls would be all over the place yelling “Tol …………………
    The last human utterance would be made by Larry Kudlow, standing on the White House lawn, his suit coat turning into molten flames as he spoke, intoning: “At least now we can plan for the future. Buy shares! Federal revenues will rise because of this ast…………….”
    Then, radio silence from humanity for eternity.

  108. “So far, the stock market doesn’t seem to mind that the terrible, awful Democrats took the House. Perhaps they’re betting on gridlock, which I guess is a form of stability.”
    The stock market hates only one thing: Uncertainty.
    If an asteroid was headed for Earth and it was absolutely certain that it would destroy ALL life IF it collided with our planet, but there was some uncertainty in the calculations about WHETHER it might hit us, the markets would have a gigantic nervous breakdown.
    If it passed nearby and didn’t harm, markets would soar. The bulls would be all over the place yelling “Told you so!”
    If it hit us square, in the last few nanoseconds of human existence, markets would soar. The bulls would be all over the place yelling “Tol …………………
    The last human utterance would be made by Larry Kudlow, standing on the White House lawn, his suit coat turning into molten flames as he spoke, intoning: “At least now we can plan for the future. Buy shares! Federal revenues will rise because of this ast…………….”
    Then, radio silence from humanity for eternity.

  123. Wasn’t that what we were talking about? 🙂
    What else could be implied when someone says “We’re going to get screwed!”???

  124. Wasn’t that what we were talking about? 🙂
    What else could be implied when someone says “We’re going to get screwed!”???

  125. So the Mob Boss has whacked one of his capos for not acting enough like a consiglieri.
    Can the Democrats, having won the powers of the purse, of oversight, and of subpoena, do anything about that? Should they bother?
    As to “can they?”, the answer is “not by any moderate means”. But if they finally grok that they are up against the Trump Mob and not the genteel GOP of old, they will not confine themselves to “moderate” means. They will ignore SCOTUS burglar McConnell’s advice and “harass” the hell out of He, Trump. There is no danger of hardening His support; the Mob has already taken a blood oath to the Boss.
    As to “should they bother?” the answer is “yes, in spades”. By taking every possible legislative and investigative step to advertise how self-dealing and power-hungry the lying liar Mob Boss is, Democrats stand a chance to convince “independents” that the Mob is a Fuhrer Cult and not a Businessmen’s Benevolent Association.
    If “independents” side with the Mob in the end, the consequences for the US (and the world) will hardly be distinguishable from the consequences of Democrats “working together” with the Mob to “get things done” while shying away from going to the mattresses.
    –TP

  126. So the Mob Boss has whacked one of his capos for not acting enough like a consiglieri.
    Can the Democrats, having won the powers of the purse, of oversight, and of subpoena, do anything about that? Should they bother?
    As to “can they?”, the answer is “not by any moderate means”. But if they finally grok that they are up against the Trump Mob and not the genteel GOP of old, they will not confine themselves to “moderate” means. They will ignore SCOTUS burglar McConnell’s advice and “harass” the hell out of He, Trump. There is no danger of hardening His support; the Mob has already taken a blood oath to the Boss.
    As to “should they bother?” the answer is “yes, in spades”. By taking every possible legislative and investigative step to advertise how self-dealing and power-hungry the lying liar Mob Boss is, Democrats stand a chance to convince “independents” that the Mob is a Fuhrer Cult and not a Businessmen’s Benevolent Association.
    If “independents” side with the Mob in the end, the consequences for the US (and the world) will hardly be distinguishable from the consequences of Democrats “working together” with the Mob to “get things done” while shying away from going to the mattresses.
    –TP

  127. This goes in here, I’m a fan of TPM, but I tend to side with this reader of TPM who has a less optimistic take than josh Marshall and I think goes to Tony’s question.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/its-a-start-and-a-critical-one
    I’m going to start this morning with an email from TPM Reader JF. It’s a deeply pessimistic look at last night’s results. I thoroughly disagree with it. I’m publishing it partly because I like JF and like sharing a range of reader opinions but more because it’s a good statement of the view I disagree with. So it’s helpful to put out there as a clear, smart statement of the take I disagree with.
    […]
    With all that, he’s JF’s more dire take …
    I get looking on the bright side. Losing the house would have been a disaster, perhaps the end of our democracy. And there were some fun wins throughout the night (Walker losing). And the ballot measure results were very encouraging. We may need to have national ballot measures as the only way anything will get done in our country.
    But let’s face reality. Last night was a very bad night. In past Democratic losses, there was always blame to go around (Hillary didn’t visit Wisconsin, poor turnout). This time, I think the Democrats ran an excellent campaign. The climate for the country seemed ripe for change. Turnout was great. If we can’t win now, with someone as inept as Trump as president, when can we win?
    And we didn’t win. The red state senate losses were devastating. We are seeing a sorting of red states where they will only elect republican senators, no matter how good the democratic candidate (McCaskil, Tester). That means the senate is lost for generations. The Republican Coalition is now left with the worst of the worst. The takeaway for them will be that Trump’s brand of divisive / white nationalist politics works. And because of tribalism, the rural areas will be lead by these remaining republicans to embrace this racism. Our courts will be filled with republican judges reshaping our law. In Florida, a republican governor will reshape their Supreme Court. Ohio became more red than a swing state. How can the Arizona senate race even be close, let alone a likely loss? Structurally, I see little hope for our country.
    So yes, they should bother, if only because what else can they do?

  128. This goes in here, I’m a fan of TPM, but I tend to side with this reader of TPM who has a less optimistic take than josh Marshall and I think goes to Tony’s question.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/its-a-start-and-a-critical-one
    I’m going to start this morning with an email from TPM Reader JF. It’s a deeply pessimistic look at last night’s results. I thoroughly disagree with it. I’m publishing it partly because I like JF and like sharing a range of reader opinions but more because it’s a good statement of the view I disagree with. So it’s helpful to put out there as a clear, smart statement of the take I disagree with.
    […]
    With all that, he’s JF’s more dire take …
    I get looking on the bright side. Losing the house would have been a disaster, perhaps the end of our democracy. And there were some fun wins throughout the night (Walker losing). And the ballot measure results were very encouraging. We may need to have national ballot measures as the only way anything will get done in our country.
    But let’s face reality. Last night was a very bad night. In past Democratic losses, there was always blame to go around (Hillary didn’t visit Wisconsin, poor turnout). This time, I think the Democrats ran an excellent campaign. The climate for the country seemed ripe for change. Turnout was great. If we can’t win now, with someone as inept as Trump as president, when can we win?
    And we didn’t win. The red state senate losses were devastating. We are seeing a sorting of red states where they will only elect republican senators, no matter how good the democratic candidate (McCaskil, Tester). That means the senate is lost for generations. The Republican Coalition is now left with the worst of the worst. The takeaway for them will be that Trump’s brand of divisive / white nationalist politics works. And because of tribalism, the rural areas will be lead by these remaining republicans to embrace this racism. Our courts will be filled with republican judges reshaping our law. In Florida, a republican governor will reshape their Supreme Court. Ohio became more red than a swing state. How can the Arizona senate race even be close, let alone a likely loss? Structurally, I see little hope for our country.
    So yes, they should bother, if only because what else can they do?

  129. The red state senate losses were devastating. We are seeing a sorting of red states where they will only elect republican senators, no matter how good the democratic candidate (McCaskil, Tester).
    FWIW, as far as I can tell, Tester won.

  130. The red state senate losses were devastating. We are seeing a sorting of red states where they will only elect republican senators, no matter how good the democratic candidate (McCaskil, Tester).
    FWIW, as far as I can tell, Tester won.

  131. Also, again FWIW, in Maine we not only got our first female governor, a Democrat, ending our eight years of lunacy with LePage, but the Dems retained the Maine House and took back the Senate.
    Jared Golden is running neck and neck with Poliquin in House District 2, and there will be a ranked choice aftermath which I believe Jared expected to win, although Poliquin has threatened to challenge ranked choice in court.

  132. Also, again FWIW, in Maine we not only got our first female governor, a Democrat, ending our eight years of lunacy with LePage, but the Dems retained the Maine House and took back the Senate.
    Jared Golden is running neck and neck with Poliquin in House District 2, and there will be a ranked choice aftermath which I believe Jared expected to win, although Poliquin has threatened to challenge ranked choice in court.

  133. In what may be the first of many, Nevada not only has two female US Senators, and a woman as its next governor. It last may have the first state legislature with more women than men. In the long term, that may mean more than the current florishing of the Trumpian fraidy cat white men coalition.

  134. In what may be the first of many, Nevada not only has two female US Senators, and a woman as its next governor. It last may have the first state legislature with more women than men. In the long term, that may mean more than the current florishing of the Trumpian fraidy cat white men coalition.

  137. That means the senate is lost for generations.
    Or, for another two years.
    I woke up this morning, read the news, and was greeted with pundit think pieces explaining why the midterm results were not really a (D) victory, but were actually a triumph for Trump. My favorite was the one which announced that the (D)’s had just gained seats in the House which they were just going to have to defend in two years time.
    Um… all House seats are contested every two years.
    And by the middle of the day we had the dire threats from McConnell and Trump and even lesser (R) lights, telling us that if the (D)’s took this opportunity to investigate the administration, then that would be the end of bipartisanship.
    Which led me to wonder… what bipartisanship?
    Bollocks to the lot of them. Pound sand.
    It was a good night for the (D)’s. They took the House with a decent if not overwhelming majority, and did pretty well at the state levels.
    In 2020 we have a new census, which will offer opportunities to reconfigure House districts. Which will offer opportunities to reverse some amount of gerrymandering.
    In 2020, 20 or 21 (R) Senate seats will be up, and only 11 or 12 (D) seats. The opposite of this year. And, one of them is Susan Collins.
    And, this year, the (D)’s only lost 2, even though a handful of (D) senators were up for election in extremely red states.
    Trump will no doubt run for POTUS, and maybe we’ll get to see him run against somebody with the natural charisma of a Beto or a Gillum. And we’ll see how that plays out.
    This is a pretty damned good day.
    And by all means, (R)’s, fire Mueller, and see what happens.

  138. That means the senate is lost for generations.
    Or, for another two years.
    I woke up this morning, read the news, and was greeted with pundit think pieces explaining why the midterm results were not really a (D) victory, but were actually a triumph for Trump. My favorite was the one which announced that the (D)’s had just gained seats in the House which they were just going to have to defend in two years time.
    Um… all House seats are contested every two years.
    And by the middle of the day we had the dire threats from McConnell and Trump and even lesser (R) lights, telling us that if the (D)’s took this opportunity to investigate the administration, then that would be the end of bipartisanship.
    Which led me to wonder… what bipartisanship?
    Bollocks to the lot of them. Pound sand.
    It was a good night for the (D)’s. They took the House with a decent if not overwhelming majority, and did pretty well at the state levels.
    In 2020 we have a new census, which will offer opportunities to reconfigure House districts. Which will offer opportunities to reverse some amount of gerrymandering.
    In 2020, 20 or 21 (R) Senate seats will be up, and only 11 or 12 (D) seats. The opposite of this year. And, one of them is Susan Collins.
    And, this year, the (D)’s only lost 2, even though a handful of (D) senators were up for election in extremely red states.
    Trump will no doubt run for POTUS, and maybe we’ll get to see him run against somebody with the natural charisma of a Beto or a Gillum. And we’ll see how that plays out.
    This is a pretty damned good day.
    And by all means, (R)’s, fire Mueller, and see what happens.

  139. Also, again FWIW, in Maine we not only got our first female governor, a Democrat, ending our eight years of lunacy with LePage, but the Dems retained the Maine House and took back the Senate.
    Actually, I’m pretty stoked. Probably no reason to be, but I am. Blue wave!
    It did happen, despite the additional heartbreaking events.

  140. Also, again FWIW, in Maine we not only got our first female governor, a Democrat, ending our eight years of lunacy with LePage, but the Dems retained the Maine House and took back the Senate.
    Actually, I’m pretty stoked. Probably no reason to be, but I am. Blue wave!
    It did happen, despite the additional heartbreaking events.

  141. “That means the senate is lost for generations.”
    People get way overdetermined about the Senate. Democrats had 60 what 10 years ago? It can change.
    It is the same thinking that thought the Rust Belt was ‘safe’ for Clinton. Things change, especially if you ignore people long enough. So the answer is definitely not to just ignore them as if it is hopeless to get the state.

  142. “That means the senate is lost for generations.”
    People get way overdetermined about the Senate. Democrats had 60 what 10 years ago? It can change.
    It is the same thinking that thought the Rust Belt was ‘safe’ for Clinton. Things change, especially if you ignore people long enough. So the answer is definitely not to just ignore them as if it is hopeless to get the state.

  143. State legislatures.
    Which is presented here as being kind of a disappointing result. Which, I don’t get.
    Before the mid-terms, 25 states with 100% (R) leadership, 17 with split leadership, and 7 with (D). And Nebraska.
    After the mid-terms, 21 (probably 22) 100% (R) states, 13 split, and 14 100% (D). And Nebraska. And one of the ‘split’ states is MA.
    That looks good to me. Could be better, but I’ll take it.

  144. State legislatures.
    Which is presented here as being kind of a disappointing result. Which, I don’t get.
    Before the mid-terms, 25 states with 100% (R) leadership, 17 with split leadership, and 7 with (D). And Nebraska.
    After the mid-terms, 21 (probably 22) 100% (R) states, 13 split, and 14 100% (D). And Nebraska. And one of the ‘split’ states is MA.
    That looks good to me. Could be better, but I’ll take it.

  145. While I celebrate the historical gains by women and minorities, I share JF’s cynicism. But I take Marshall’s point as well.
    In a Senate where a simple majority rules most of the time, this hurts (from NYT Election site):
    Democrats – 46
    Lost 2 seats
    46,070,556 votes (56.9%)
    Republicans – 51
    Gained 2 seats
    33,559,381 votes (41.5%)

  146. While I celebrate the historical gains by women and minorities, I share JF’s cynicism. But I take Marshall’s point as well.
    In a Senate where a simple majority rules most of the time, this hurts (from NYT Election site):
    Democrats – 46
    Lost 2 seats
    46,070,556 votes (56.9%)
    Republicans – 51
    Gained 2 seats
    33,559,381 votes (41.5%)

  147. Thanks, that makes me feel a lot better. I didn’t want to obsessively do election watching here, and this may have meant the more depressing things were noticed, such as the results of Republican vote manipulation (Heitkamp, Abrams, Gillum) Beto losing, not to mention Denis Hof being elected in a landslide.
    I’d also like to be as sanguine about the Senate, but that relies on assuming that the Senate will follow norms in at least some vestigal way, but I really doubt that is going to be the case. A judiciary packed with Federalist society appointees, which would then forestall any meaningful legislation. I know, call me Eeyore…

  148. Thanks, that makes me feel a lot better. I didn’t want to obsessively do election watching here, and this may have meant the more depressing things were noticed, such as the results of Republican vote manipulation (Heitkamp, Abrams, Gillum) Beto losing, not to mention Denis Hof being elected in a landslide.
    I’d also like to be as sanguine about the Senate, but that relies on assuming that the Senate will follow norms in at least some vestigal way, but I really doubt that is going to be the case. A judiciary packed with Federalist society appointees, which would then forestall any meaningful legislation. I know, call me Eeyore…

  151. “not to mention Denis Hof being elected in a landslide.”
    And we have been lectured to stop complaining about being ruled by dead white men.
    A rapist at that.
    Abrams should never concede. NEVER.
    I would allow Kemp to assume the Governorship, but ONLY as a corpse.
    He could be the Secretary of Lying (two ways) In State for eternity.

  152. “not to mention Denis Hof being elected in a landslide.”
    And we have been lectured to stop complaining about being ruled by dead white men.
    A rapist at that.
    Abrams should never concede. NEVER.
    I would allow Kemp to assume the Governorship, but ONLY as a corpse.
    He could be the Secretary of Lying (two ways) In State for eternity.

  155. In 2020 we have a new census, which will offer opportunities to reconfigure House districts. Which will offer opportunities to reverse some amount of gerrymandering.
    If, and only if, Democrats learn the lesson of 2010, and make sure they have a minimum of one house of the state legislature or the governorship. Otherwise, we’ll just see new and improved gerrymandering. In the long run, they’d be better off losing House and Senate seats in 2010 if they can stop the gerrymandering.

  156. In 2020 we have a new census, which will offer opportunities to reconfigure House districts. Which will offer opportunities to reverse some amount of gerrymandering.
    If, and only if, Democrats learn the lesson of 2010, and make sure they have a minimum of one house of the state legislature or the governorship. Otherwise, we’ll just see new and improved gerrymandering. In the long run, they’d be better off losing House and Senate seats in 2010 if they can stop the gerrymandering.

  157. this hurts
    Blame the founders.
    They feared democracy and were aristocrats themselves in most cases.
    The Senate was the price – or, one of the prices – exacted for getting the Constitution passed at all.
    More and more I wonder if the whole idea was a good one in the first place. Would the world be a worse place today if the english-speaking colonies had aggregated themselves into 3 or 4 smaller and more socially cohesive nations?
    In any case, yes, the Senate is anti-democratic, by design.

  158. this hurts
    Blame the founders.
    They feared democracy and were aristocrats themselves in most cases.
    The Senate was the price – or, one of the prices – exacted for getting the Constitution passed at all.
    More and more I wonder if the whole idea was a good one in the first place. Would the world be a worse place today if the english-speaking colonies had aggregated themselves into 3 or 4 smaller and more socially cohesive nations?
    In any case, yes, the Senate is anti-democratic, by design.

  161. In any case, yes, the Senate is anti-democratic, by design.
    Yeah, I get why they did it that way and I don’t mean to suggest that the rules need to change when my side is losing. To be fair, the House numbers pretty closely align with the electorate:
    Dems
    223 (~53% of seats decided)
    Gained 28 seats (~7%)
    51,537,798 votes (51.2%)
    197 (~47% of seats decided)
    Lost 28 seats (~7%)
    47,368,538 votes (47.1%)
    (the “~” numbers are my back-of-envelope figuring)
    I was just really surprised to see a full 15% difference in the Senate numbers and still losing ground. That seems rather severe to me, even dismissing the straight partisanship of the day. But I’m no statistician so maybe that’s not significantly outta whack given the design.
    So, yeah, I get the Blue Wave thing, if you’re a glass-half-full kinda guy. I’m a lifelong Islanders and Mets fan, so you know my optimism far outpaces any sense of reason I might otherwise enjoy.
    But Tuesday still felt kinda like a gut-punch. Maybe that’s just what “winning” feels like in the age of Trump.

  162. In any case, yes, the Senate is anti-democratic, by design.
    Yeah, I get why they did it that way and I don’t mean to suggest that the rules need to change when my side is losing. To be fair, the House numbers pretty closely align with the electorate:
    Dems
    223 (~53% of seats decided)
    Gained 28 seats (~7%)
    51,537,798 votes (51.2%)
    197 (~47% of seats decided)
    Lost 28 seats (~7%)
    47,368,538 votes (47.1%)
    (the “~” numbers are my back-of-envelope figuring)
    I was just really surprised to see a full 15% difference in the Senate numbers and still losing ground. That seems rather severe to me, even dismissing the straight partisanship of the day. But I’m no statistician so maybe that’s not significantly outta whack given the design.
    So, yeah, I get the Blue Wave thing, if you’re a glass-half-full kinda guy. I’m a lifelong Islanders and Mets fan, so you know my optimism far outpaces any sense of reason I might otherwise enjoy.
    But Tuesday still felt kinda like a gut-punch. Maybe that’s just what “winning” feels like in the age of Trump.

  165. On the other hand Democrats (counting King and Sanders) won 23 of 33 Senate races (~70%), exceeding their vote percentage.

  166. On the other hand Democrats (counting King and Sanders) won 23 of 33 Senate races (~70%), exceeding their vote percentage.

  167. Fair points, and I’m gonna assume even with the [I] numbers, that wouldn’t push to 70%. And the 2020 map has more Rs defending.
    Maybe the picture is rosier than I’ve been painting it.

  168. Fair points, and I’m gonna assume even with the [I] numbers, that wouldn’t push to 70%. And the 2020 map has more Rs defending.
    Maybe the picture is rosier than I’ve been painting it.

  169. What makes me optimistic is that more younger people voted in this election – a mid-term, no less. Two years from now, more will be eligible to vote, and the ones that already are will be two years older, and that much more likely to vote.
    The demographics that have been discussed for a good number of years, but that never seemed to be making as much of a difference as they were expected to (Obama, notwithstanding), are finally starting to bear fruit.
    I haven’t seen anything about turnout among people of color this election, but I would wager that turnout was up among them, too.
    The nature of the candidates that Democrats were able to recruit is also a good sign, as is winning at the state level and being able to undo some gerrymandering.

  170. What makes me optimistic is that more younger people voted in this election – a mid-term, no less. Two years from now, more will be eligible to vote, and the ones that already are will be two years older, and that much more likely to vote.
    The demographics that have been discussed for a good number of years, but that never seemed to be making as much of a difference as they were expected to (Obama, notwithstanding), are finally starting to bear fruit.
    I haven’t seen anything about turnout among people of color this election, but I would wager that turnout was up among them, too.
    The nature of the candidates that Democrats were able to recruit is also a good sign, as is winning at the state level and being able to undo some gerrymandering.

  171. The nature of the candidates that Democrats were able to recruit is also a good sign, as is winning at the state level and being able to undo some gerrymandering.
    Or the Republicans get even more overt and desperate in their smash-and-grab and completely destroy what’s left of-
    OK, OK, I’m done playing Devil’s Advocate! I yield!

  172. The nature of the candidates that Democrats were able to recruit is also a good sign, as is winning at the state level and being able to undo some gerrymandering.
    Or the Republicans get even more overt and desperate in their smash-and-grab and completely destroy what’s left of-
    OK, OK, I’m done playing Devil’s Advocate! I yield!

  173. Keep in mind that I was only discussing the things that make me optimistic. Not everything makes me feel that way. ;^)

  174. Keep in mind that I was only discussing the things that make me optimistic. Not everything makes me feel that way. ;^)

  175. so, lots (nearly all!) of blue states had Senate races, and many of the red states didn’t.
    what cleek said on the Senate. D’s had to defend, what 26 and only had 9 to try to gain ground? That was always a steep hill. But the average is for the President’s party to lose 4, and the R’s gained 2.
    On the house, the average is to lose 30. But it was 39 here (so far). An above average night for D’s in terms of the house.
    Massive turnout for a midterm.
    A lot of firsts.
    How all that washes out? YMMV. But no blue wave, IMHO.
    Pete: the popular vote discrepancy isn’t what you think. Here in California, I had the “opportunity” to vote for one of two Democrats. In California alone, there were 6.3 million D votes and zero R votes for the Senate seat. The other “top-2” states either had no senate race or had both D’s and R’s as the top 2. So there is that.
    Add in the small/large state intentional Constitutional structure and you probably make up the rest of the difference.

  176. so, lots (nearly all!) of blue states had Senate races, and many of the red states didn’t.
    what cleek said on the Senate. D’s had to defend, what 26 and only had 9 to try to gain ground? That was always a steep hill. But the average is for the President’s party to lose 4, and the R’s gained 2.
    On the house, the average is to lose 30. But it was 39 here (so far). An above average night for D’s in terms of the house.
    Massive turnout for a midterm.
    A lot of firsts.
    How all that washes out? YMMV. But no blue wave, IMHO.
    Pete: the popular vote discrepancy isn’t what you think. Here in California, I had the “opportunity” to vote for one of two Democrats. In California alone, there were 6.3 million D votes and zero R votes for the Senate seat. The other “top-2” states either had no senate race or had both D’s and R’s as the top 2. So there is that.
    Add in the small/large state intentional Constitutional structure and you probably make up the rest of the difference.

  177. Or just stayed English ?\
    Would have saved having an unnecessary war…
    😉
    FYI, one of the stated aims of the American Revolution, when it started, was “to secure the rights of Englishmen.” It was not being treated as they (at least thought they) would have been back in England that really grated.

  178. Or just stayed English ?\
    Would have saved having an unnecessary war…
    😉
    FYI, one of the stated aims of the American Revolution, when it started, was “to secure the rights of Englishmen.” It was not being treated as they (at least thought they) would have been back in England that really grated.

  179. Yeah, I get why they did it that way and I don’t mean to suggest that the rules need to change when my side is losing.
    . . .
    I was just really surprised to see a full 15% difference in the Senate numbers and still losing ground. That seems rather severe to me, even dismissing the straight partisanship of the day. But I’m no statistician so maybe that’s not significantly outta whack given the design.
    In 1790, the smallest state (Delaware) had a population of 59,000 while largest state (Virginia) had a population of 748,000. A ratio of just under 13 to 1. Today (2010 census), California has a population of 39,145,000 while Wyoming has a population of 586,000. A ratio of about 600 to 1. A few orders of magnitude increase there.
    There’s no way an amendment gets past 3/4 of the states to change that. But it also seems likely that the same big state / small state compromise that worked initially would get made today. Probably a better chance for Democrats to decide to retire to some of those small population states and skew the demographics their way.

  180. Yeah, I get why they did it that way and I don’t mean to suggest that the rules need to change when my side is losing.
    . . .
    I was just really surprised to see a full 15% difference in the Senate numbers and still losing ground. That seems rather severe to me, even dismissing the straight partisanship of the day. But I’m no statistician so maybe that’s not significantly outta whack given the design.
    In 1790, the smallest state (Delaware) had a population of 59,000 while largest state (Virginia) had a population of 748,000. A ratio of just under 13 to 1. Today (2010 census), California has a population of 39,145,000 while Wyoming has a population of 586,000. A ratio of about 600 to 1. A few orders of magnitude increase there.
    There’s no way an amendment gets past 3/4 of the states to change that. But it also seems likely that the same big state / small state compromise that worked initially would get made today. Probably a better chance for Democrats to decide to retire to some of those small population states and skew the demographics their way.

  181. The demographics that have been discussed for a good number of years, but that never seemed to be making as much of a difference as they were expected to (Obama, notwithstanding), are finally starting to bear fruit.
    Both sides can see the writing on the wall. That’s why McConnell et al. are so desperate to pack the courts: their window of opportunity is closing and they know it. But this way, they may manage to preserve their power for their lifetimes anyway.

  182. The demographics that have been discussed for a good number of years, but that never seemed to be making as much of a difference as they were expected to (Obama, notwithstanding), are finally starting to bear fruit.
    Both sides can see the writing on the wall. That’s why McConnell et al. are so desperate to pack the courts: their window of opportunity is closing and they know it. But this way, they may manage to preserve their power for their lifetimes anyway.

  183. bc- How all that washes out? YMMV. But no blue wave, IMHO.
    I’ve been thinking a lot about this article in The Economist from last summer:
    In 2016 Democrats who beat Republican opponents won an average of 67.4% of the two-party vote in their districts, whereas Republicans who defeated Democrats received an average of 63.8%. This imbalance is partly due to deliberate attempts to create districts that provide such results, and partly just down to the fact that Democrats tend to live more tightly bunched together in cities. Together, these two factors put up quite an obstacle. According to our model, the Democrats need to win 53.5% of all votes cast for the two major parties just to have a 50/50 chance of winning a majority in the House.
    It’s hard to judge waves when one side has a structural advantage that amplifies the effects of their own votes and clips the tops off of the other side’s waves.
    This is not sustainable. Something has to give.

  184. bc- How all that washes out? YMMV. But no blue wave, IMHO.
    I’ve been thinking a lot about this article in The Economist from last summer:
    In 2016 Democrats who beat Republican opponents won an average of 67.4% of the two-party vote in their districts, whereas Republicans who defeated Democrats received an average of 63.8%. This imbalance is partly due to deliberate attempts to create districts that provide such results, and partly just down to the fact that Democrats tend to live more tightly bunched together in cities. Together, these two factors put up quite an obstacle. According to our model, the Democrats need to win 53.5% of all votes cast for the two major parties just to have a 50/50 chance of winning a majority in the House.
    It’s hard to judge waves when one side has a structural advantage that amplifies the effects of their own votes and clips the tops off of the other side’s waves.
    This is not sustainable. Something has to give.

  185. Democrats won the popular vote in Michigan by 7 percentage points,
    in Wisconsin by 8 points, in Pennsylvania by 10 points, and in Minnesota by 11 points. In other parts of the country, they won Nevada and Colorado by 6 points each, New Hampshire by 12, Virginia by 15 and New Mexico by 19.
    On the less optimistic outlook, as David Frum observed: If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy,
    https://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-sum-of-their-fears-by-bloggersrus.html:

  186. Democrats won the popular vote in Michigan by 7 percentage points,
    in Wisconsin by 8 points, in Pennsylvania by 10 points, and in Minnesota by 11 points. In other parts of the country, they won Nevada and Colorado by 6 points each, New Hampshire by 12, Virginia by 15 and New Mexico by 19.
    On the less optimistic outlook, as David Frum observed: If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy,
    https://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-sum-of-their-fears-by-bloggersrus.html:

  187. Since this is, at least nominally, the current open thread, I’d like to ask why when an immigrant does something terrible, it reflects on all immigrants, but when … hmmm … let’s just suppose for argument’s sake, a military veteran (or a white guy, or a natural-born American, or maybe a Christian) does something terrible, it doesn’t reflect on all military veterans (or white guys, or natural-born Americans, or Christians)?
    It’s odd.

  188. Since this is, at least nominally, the current open thread, I’d like to ask why when an immigrant does something terrible, it reflects on all immigrants, but when … hmmm … let’s just suppose for argument’s sake, a military veteran (or a white guy, or a natural-born American, or maybe a Christian) does something terrible, it doesn’t reflect on all military veterans (or white guys, or natural-born Americans, or Christians)?
    It’s odd.

  189. Stopped by, post election.
    About a normal midterm outcome, Senate is a little off but the numbers made that happen.
    The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    The Hispanics I know and grew up with are very conservative, the one exception being immigration. I think that any meaningful immigration reform changes that voting block substantially.
    Other than that, kids grow up, get older. Typically more conservative. I see the opportunity for Democrats in 2020, maybe still in 2024 but that opportunity is reduced dramatically if there is immigration reform.
    Otherwise mostly ssdd.

  190. Stopped by, post election.
    About a normal midterm outcome, Senate is a little off but the numbers made that happen.
    The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    The Hispanics I know and grew up with are very conservative, the one exception being immigration. I think that any meaningful immigration reform changes that voting block substantially.
    Other than that, kids grow up, get older. Typically more conservative. I see the opportunity for Democrats in 2020, maybe still in 2024 but that opportunity is reduced dramatically if there is immigration reform.
    Otherwise mostly ssdd.

  191. The Hispanics I know and grew up with are very conservative, the one exception being immigration. I think that any meaningful immigration reform changes that voting block substantially.
    They definitely are cultural conservatives. (As are a substantial number of blacks — far, far more than vote Republican these days.)
    But while immigration reform would definitely help, overt racism from the top would still keep both groups away. Their cultural conservatism has been a huge wasted opportunity for Republicans ever since Nixon launched the Southern Strategy and embraced the Dixiecrats. But I’m not seeing any signs suggesting that the GOP might be considering heeding its own post 2008 analysis and changing.

  192. The Hispanics I know and grew up with are very conservative, the one exception being immigration. I think that any meaningful immigration reform changes that voting block substantially.
    They definitely are cultural conservatives. (As are a substantial number of blacks — far, far more than vote Republican these days.)
    But while immigration reform would definitely help, overt racism from the top would still keep both groups away. Their cultural conservatism has been a huge wasted opportunity for Republicans ever since Nixon launched the Southern Strategy and embraced the Dixiecrats. But I’m not seeing any signs suggesting that the GOP might be considering heeding its own post 2008 analysis and changing.

  193. But I’m not seeing any signs suggesting that the GOP might be considering heeding its own post 2008 analysis and changing.
    Trumpism is the exact opposite of that – the embrace of White Nationalism.

  194. But I’m not seeing any signs suggesting that the GOP might be considering heeding its own post 2008 analysis and changing.
    Trumpism is the exact opposite of that – the embrace of White Nationalism.

  195. Please keep in mind that there is no “Republican” party at the national level any more. There’s the Trump Mob and there’s the Democrats.
    Please also keep in mind that the American electorate is a creature of habit. Re-elect incumbent presidents and then give the White House to the other party? Check. Vote for the out party in a new president’s first mid-term? Check. Finer-grained analysis is all well and good, but habit is habit.
    –TP

  196. Please keep in mind that there is no “Republican” party at the national level any more. There’s the Trump Mob and there’s the Democrats.
    Please also keep in mind that the American electorate is a creature of habit. Re-elect incumbent presidents and then give the White House to the other party? Check. Vote for the out party in a new president’s first mid-term? Check. Finer-grained analysis is all well and good, but habit is habit.
    –TP

  199. The caravan of very conservative rapist, drug dealing, terrorist hispanics approaches our southern border, itching to vote republican.
    Glad you are back, Marty.

  200. The caravan of very conservative rapist, drug dealing, terrorist hispanics approaches our southern border, itching to vote republican.
    Glad you are back, Marty.

  203. @marty,
    I really only pay attention to the 11 contiguous western states. There, it was a good night for the Dems, with a chance to become excellent.
    Flipped governors in NM and NV and the Colorado state senate, giving a blue “trifecta” in each. Flipped Heller’s US Senate seat in NV. Flipped five US House seats so far with two more probable. Medical marijuana and Medicaid expansion leading in Utah.
    Three more US House seats and the Arizona US Senate seat that would make it excellent are going to be very tight. I take it as a good sign for the Dems that the Arizona Republicans have now sued to try to block counting a bunch of the last-minute ballots.
    The “bluing” of the West is a 30 year trend now.

  204. @marty,
    I really only pay attention to the 11 contiguous western states. There, it was a good night for the Dems, with a chance to become excellent.
    Flipped governors in NM and NV and the Colorado state senate, giving a blue “trifecta” in each. Flipped Heller’s US Senate seat in NV. Flipped five US House seats so far with two more probable. Medical marijuana and Medicaid expansion leading in Utah.
    Three more US House seats and the Arizona US Senate seat that would make it excellent are going to be very tight. I take it as a good sign for the Dems that the Arizona Republicans have now sued to try to block counting a bunch of the last-minute ballots.
    The “bluing” of the West is a 30 year trend now.

  205. Otherwise mostly ssdd
    I don’t think Marty means that to stand for “same surface, different deep”, but it should. US politics now aren’t about conservative versus liberal. For anyone with their eyes open it’s fascists v anti-fascists.
    Which side are you on?

  206. Otherwise mostly ssdd
    I don’t think Marty means that to stand for “same surface, different deep”, but it should. US politics now aren’t about conservative versus liberal. For anyone with their eyes open it’s fascists v anti-fascists.
    Which side are you on?

  207. Marty, do please come back. The personal nastiness you referred to, in both directions, is so regrettable and unnecessary. We have so much past history and reason to think better than that of each other, while the world continues to go to hell in a handbasket. I hope we can all put it behind us. To quote Auden, and you must excuse my emotionalism, I am currently in a very heightened emotional state after the death of my mother:
    We must love one another or die.

  208. Marty, do please come back. The personal nastiness you referred to, in both directions, is so regrettable and unnecessary. We have so much past history and reason to think better than that of each other, while the world continues to go to hell in a handbasket. I hope we can all put it behind us. To quote Auden, and you must excuse my emotionalism, I am currently in a very heightened emotional state after the death of my mother:
    We must love one another or die.

  213. The “bluing” of the West is a 30 year trend now.
    Ah, but is it? You can get to blue two ways. First, as you suggest, by getting more blue. But the second, which seems very much the case in California**, is by starting with purple and subtracting red. It would be interesting to know which is happening in the other western states.
    ** That is, it isn’t so much that what the Democrats stand for/do is becoming more popular in California. It’s more that what the Republicans insist on standing for is getting so far away from what the population wants. Not a change in the popular desires (although there is some of that) so much as a determination to walk away from what was already there.

  214. The “bluing” of the West is a 30 year trend now.
    Ah, but is it? You can get to blue two ways. First, as you suggest, by getting more blue. But the second, which seems very much the case in California**, is by starting with purple and subtracting red. It would be interesting to know which is happening in the other western states.
    ** That is, it isn’t so much that what the Democrats stand for/do is becoming more popular in California. It’s more that what the Republicans insist on standing for is getting so far away from what the population wants. Not a change in the popular desires (although there is some of that) so much as a determination to walk away from what was already there.

  215. Marty has birthright citizenship at OBWI.
    Hell, I’d restore Brett Bellmore’s citizenship. Or at least grant him asylum.
    –TP

  216. Marty has birthright citizenship at OBWI.
    Hell, I’d restore Brett Bellmore’s citizenship. Or at least grant him asylum.
    –TP

  219. wj,
    What’s your theory as to why “Republicans insist on standing” for things that are “so far away from what the population wants”?
    –TP

  220. wj,
    What’s your theory as to why “Republicans insist on standing” for things that are “so far away from what the population wants”?
    –TP

  225. What’s your theory as to why “Republicans insist on standing” for things that are “so far away from what the population wants”?
    I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing. In both parties, there is a tendency for the partisans further from the center to think that their view is the right one — and even pre-Internet, there was a tendency for people to talk mostly to those who agree with them. The parties resisted pulling away from the center because their leaders mostly realized that it was, in the long term, politically toxic.
    But with Prop 187 (in 1994) the Republican leadership, specifically Governor Wilson, decided to embrace an initiative to establish a state-run citizenship screening system and prohibit illegal immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services. It passed (although it was subsequently found to be unconstitutional), and Wilson got reelected governor. But he was the last Republican to win a general election for Governor of California**.
    What that did was push out a growing segment of the population (Hispanic voters), and alienate those who dislike xenophobic and racist appeals. It was, I think, as big step in the partisan sorting which we currently see — the days of liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats seem to mostly be behind us. And then, the only way to win a primary was to appeal to those in what was no longer a population that reflected the state as a whole.
    But it could equally well have been the Democrats who got bitten by the extremist bug first. Certainly there are plenty of strong liberals here, just as there are plenty of strong conservatives. (“Plenty” in this context meaning maybe 10%-15% of the voters.) But the Democrats were fortunate enough to have leaders who refused to embrace the extremes. And so dodged the bullet.
    The best hope for the GOP in California today is, inadvertently, the “top two” / open primary system that we have adopted. As a result, getting into the general election is far more likely that previously to require moderation. Sure, a relatively extreme Republican can make the general if there is only one Republican but numerous Democrats on offer in the primary. But given multiple candidates from both parties, the extremists have a harder time getting through the primary filter.
    Over time, the rewards will, I hope, move the GOP back towards the center. But I confess that it is taking far longer than I had initially hoped.
    ** Schwartzenegger was an anomaly, born of a free-for-all election to replaced a recalled governor. He would never have made it thru a regular Republican primary — just way too moderate.

  226. What’s your theory as to why “Republicans insist on standing” for things that are “so far away from what the population wants”?
    I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing. In both parties, there is a tendency for the partisans further from the center to think that their view is the right one — and even pre-Internet, there was a tendency for people to talk mostly to those who agree with them. The parties resisted pulling away from the center because their leaders mostly realized that it was, in the long term, politically toxic.
    But with Prop 187 (in 1994) the Republican leadership, specifically Governor Wilson, decided to embrace an initiative to establish a state-run citizenship screening system and prohibit illegal immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other services. It passed (although it was subsequently found to be unconstitutional), and Wilson got reelected governor. But he was the last Republican to win a general election for Governor of California**.
    What that did was push out a growing segment of the population (Hispanic voters), and alienate those who dislike xenophobic and racist appeals. It was, I think, as big step in the partisan sorting which we currently see — the days of liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats seem to mostly be behind us. And then, the only way to win a primary was to appeal to those in what was no longer a population that reflected the state as a whole.
    But it could equally well have been the Democrats who got bitten by the extremist bug first. Certainly there are plenty of strong liberals here, just as there are plenty of strong conservatives. (“Plenty” in this context meaning maybe 10%-15% of the voters.) But the Democrats were fortunate enough to have leaders who refused to embrace the extremes. And so dodged the bullet.
    The best hope for the GOP in California today is, inadvertently, the “top two” / open primary system that we have adopted. As a result, getting into the general election is far more likely that previously to require moderation. Sure, a relatively extreme Republican can make the general if there is only one Republican but numerous Democrats on offer in the primary. But given multiple candidates from both parties, the extremists have a harder time getting through the primary filter.
    Over time, the rewards will, I hope, move the GOP back towards the center. But I confess that it is taking far longer than I had initially hoped.
    ** Schwartzenegger was an anomaly, born of a free-for-all election to replaced a recalled governor. He would never have made it thru a regular Republican primary — just way too moderate.

  227. filched from Hullabaloo:
    “I’m sitting in an apartment the likes of which nobody’s ever seen. And yet I represent the workers of the world. And they love me and I love them. I think people aspire to do things. And they aspire to watch people. I don’t think they want to see the president carrying his luggage out of Air Force One. And that’s pretty much the way it is.”
    That’s mp.
    It’s like Trotsky dodged the ice pic, migrated north and swam the Rio Grande, finally making it to Hollywood, where he worked his way on to every casting couch, changed his name to Robin Leach and produced and hosted “Lifestyles of The Rich and Famous”.
    “the likes of which nobody’s ever seen.”
    A nobody did see it. Him.
    “I represent the workers of the world”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgzdb0txR_c

  228. filched from Hullabaloo:
    “I’m sitting in an apartment the likes of which nobody’s ever seen. And yet I represent the workers of the world. And they love me and I love them. I think people aspire to do things. And they aspire to watch people. I don’t think they want to see the president carrying his luggage out of Air Force One. And that’s pretty much the way it is.”
    That’s mp.
    It’s like Trotsky dodged the ice pic, migrated north and swam the Rio Grande, finally making it to Hollywood, where he worked his way on to every casting couch, changed his name to Robin Leach and produced and hosted “Lifestyles of The Rich and Famous”.
    “the likes of which nobody’s ever seen.”
    A nobody did see it. Him.
    “I represent the workers of the world”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgzdb0txR_c

  229. The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    The GOP will never initiate or pass immigration reform on its own. This has been proven. They have pulled back even from bi-partisan efforts.
    So if the Dems manage to pull that feat off, it would be solely due to their effort, and they will reap the long term political rewards.
    As they should.

  230. The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    The GOP will never initiate or pass immigration reform on its own. This has been proven. They have pulled back even from bi-partisan efforts.
    So if the Dems manage to pull that feat off, it would be solely due to their effort, and they will reap the long term political rewards.
    As they should.

  231. For anyone with their eyes open it’s fascists v anti-fascists.
    Which side are you on?
    Everyone needs to decide this.
    “We must love one another or die.”
    From wikipedia:
    “In the mid-1950s Auden began to refuse permission to editors who asked to reprint the poem in anthologies. In 1955, he allowed Oscar Williams to include it complete in The New Pocket Anthology of American Verse, but altered the most famous line to read “We must love one another and die.” Later he allowed the poem to be reprinted only once, in a Penguin Books anthology Poetry of the Thirties (1964), with a note saying about this and four other early poems, ‘Mr. W. H. Auden considers these five poems to be trash which he is ashamed to have written.'”
    There were lessons learned from WWII, even by the great poet.

  232. For anyone with their eyes open it’s fascists v anti-fascists.
    Which side are you on?
    Everyone needs to decide this.
    “We must love one another or die.”
    From wikipedia:
    “In the mid-1950s Auden began to refuse permission to editors who asked to reprint the poem in anthologies. In 1955, he allowed Oscar Williams to include it complete in The New Pocket Anthology of American Verse, but altered the most famous line to read “We must love one another and die.” Later he allowed the poem to be reprinted only once, in a Penguin Books anthology Poetry of the Thirties (1964), with a note saying about this and four other early poems, ‘Mr. W. H. Auden considers these five poems to be trash which he is ashamed to have written.'”
    There were lessons learned from WWII, even by the great poet.

  235. Thanks, Nous. I’d guess that California initially saw something similar. And the Republican presence in the state legislature imploded.

  236. Thanks, Nous. I’d guess that California initially saw something similar. And the Republican presence in the state legislature imploded.

  237. But here is the defense: Auden wrote, “We must love one another or die” not because it expressed the most accurate moral or social theory. He said it because he wanted to grab the stranger who read his verse and communicate a disinterested, ethical love as the world was engulfed by hatred. It was an impartial love that extended to anyone, Jew or German, gay or straight, who was “composed … / Of Eros and of dust.” To put that down on paper took courage, and maybe the right response is assent.
    This is by Peter Levine, and I agree with it. Auden was a very great poet, but he was not always right, even about his own past poems. Intolerance of dissent is an evil, whoever displays it, and the quality in ObWi which has allowed voices with opposing views (particularly when they are the voices of decent people) to be heard is valuable, and worth fighting for.

  238. But here is the defense: Auden wrote, “We must love one another or die” not because it expressed the most accurate moral or social theory. He said it because he wanted to grab the stranger who read his verse and communicate a disinterested, ethical love as the world was engulfed by hatred. It was an impartial love that extended to anyone, Jew or German, gay or straight, who was “composed … / Of Eros and of dust.” To put that down on paper took courage, and maybe the right response is assent.
    This is by Peter Levine, and I agree with it. Auden was a very great poet, but he was not always right, even about his own past poems. Intolerance of dissent is an evil, whoever displays it, and the quality in ObWi which has allowed voices with opposing views (particularly when they are the voices of decent people) to be heard is valuable, and worth fighting for.

  239. Intolerance of dissent is an evil, whoever displays it, and the quality in ObWi which has allowed voices with opposing views (particularly when they are the voices of decent people) to be heard is valuable, and worth fighting for.
    I would not be in favor of banning anyone, but I don’t think that all views are valuable, other than they represent attitudes that need to be fought. I’m not going to comment on the “decency” of anyone, since I believe that there’s a bit of light in every person. But people make choices, and some of those choices are wrong. Particularly when they enable eradicating long-standing norms, such as allowing asylum seekers refuge.
    It’s wrong. Not just misguided. Wrong.

  240. Intolerance of dissent is an evil, whoever displays it, and the quality in ObWi which has allowed voices with opposing views (particularly when they are the voices of decent people) to be heard is valuable, and worth fighting for.
    I would not be in favor of banning anyone, but I don’t think that all views are valuable, other than they represent attitudes that need to be fought. I’m not going to comment on the “decency” of anyone, since I believe that there’s a bit of light in every person. But people make choices, and some of those choices are wrong. Particularly when they enable eradicating long-standing norms, such as allowing asylum seekers refuge.
    It’s wrong. Not just misguided. Wrong.

  241. The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    This would be a more interesting point if there was any likelihood of immigration being taken off the table.

  242. The longer term question is how does the Democratic party leverage the demographic shift if you take immigration off the table.
    This would be a more interesting point if there was any likelihood of immigration being taken off the table.

  243. As far as I know, Marty temporarily walked away with the usual right-wing elderly white Republican “protect my money” victim syndrome, not because anyone told him to go away.

  244. As far as I know, Marty temporarily walked away with the usual right-wing elderly white Republican “protect my money” victim syndrome, not because anyone told him to go away.

  245. I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing.
    In multiple ways in the West. Populations started to explode, with a large number of Richard Florida’s young, educated, creative class. Defined broadly — which Florida has always been slow to do — and including programmers, digital widget designers, and all the support for same. Support’s important. A friend who is a former pipefitter, now with a PhD, says, “You can do basic boiler work and ruin your back by the time you’re 35. Or you can do finicky work in huge new research hospitals that requires a bunch more training and math, and work forever. If my back had held out for two more years until the big hospital growth wave started, I’d never have gone to college.”
    When I worked as staff for the Colorado legislature, I lost track of the number of times I had the conversation, “Representative X, Colorado is not the small, poor, rural state you remember. It’s a medium-sized, highly-educated, high-income, technology-driven state, no matter that your district doesn’t reflect that. And policy has to change.” Less directly than that, and more politely. I had a fairly thick skin when I started that job, and it got a lot thicker.

  246. I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing.
    In multiple ways in the West. Populations started to explode, with a large number of Richard Florida’s young, educated, creative class. Defined broadly — which Florida has always been slow to do — and including programmers, digital widget designers, and all the support for same. Support’s important. A friend who is a former pipefitter, now with a PhD, says, “You can do basic boiler work and ruin your back by the time you’re 35. Or you can do finicky work in huge new research hospitals that requires a bunch more training and math, and work forever. If my back had held out for two more years until the big hospital growth wave started, I’d never have gone to college.”
    When I worked as staff for the Colorado legislature, I lost track of the number of times I had the conversation, “Representative X, Colorado is not the small, poor, rural state you remember. It’s a medium-sized, highly-educated, high-income, technology-driven state, no matter that your district doesn’t reflect that. And policy has to change.” Less directly than that, and more politely. I had a fairly thick skin when I started that job, and it got a lot thicker.

  247. I’m in a mood:
    It’s rumored that John Lennon, had he lived, would have changed the title of “Give Peace A Chance” to “Give Peace Some Pants”
    Likewise, Macca’s original line for the coda of Abbey Road was “And at the end, he who takes the love, gets even more love, and makes money too.
    God in Corinthians:
    “Love is seethingly impatient, love is mean. It envies what it hasn’t and proudly boasts when it taketh more. Others, schmothers … patooey …it runs seekingly to the nearest mirror for a glimpse of itself and angrily smashes the mirror when it findeth not itself but a ledger of its debits and then alters via double entry the credits to enhance its self-image.”
    Well, that before God’s speechwriters took it away from Ayn Rand and punched it up a bit:
    “Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs.”
    Songwriter Paul Francis Webster wrote: “Love Is A Mighty Expensive Thing” from the movie of the same title.
    Robert Frost’s first moving lines of the poem “Two Look At Two”
    “Love and forgetting might have carried them
    a little further up the mountainside, but he forgot to bring the water so she said “Ah, forget it, ya dope” and they trudged homeward along the same old loveless road they always take.
    And, of course, Auden’s poetic heirs:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0LAs7X5ybE
    Note: Bipartisan immigration reform, within grasp, has been swept off the table infinite times by conservatives over the past 25 years. Their deep-thinking cadres, their Stephen Millers never is short supply, told them victory in (stolen) elections can be had for a generation by demonizing and denying the Other in America and the Other trying to enter America. There is a great reservoir of hatred to be tapped in the base. It’s political fracking. It’s what demagogues do and keep doing until their bellies are slit open in the public square.

  248. I’m in a mood:
    It’s rumored that John Lennon, had he lived, would have changed the title of “Give Peace A Chance” to “Give Peace Some Pants”
    Likewise, Macca’s original line for the coda of Abbey Road was “And at the end, he who takes the love, gets even more love, and makes money too.
    God in Corinthians:
    “Love is seethingly impatient, love is mean. It envies what it hasn’t and proudly boasts when it taketh more. Others, schmothers … patooey …it runs seekingly to the nearest mirror for a glimpse of itself and angrily smashes the mirror when it findeth not itself but a ledger of its debits and then alters via double entry the credits to enhance its self-image.”
    Well, that before God’s speechwriters took it away from Ayn Rand and punched it up a bit:
    “Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs.”
    Songwriter Paul Francis Webster wrote: “Love Is A Mighty Expensive Thing” from the movie of the same title.
    Robert Frost’s first moving lines of the poem “Two Look At Two”
    “Love and forgetting might have carried them
    a little further up the mountainside, but he forgot to bring the water so she said “Ah, forget it, ya dope” and they trudged homeward along the same old loveless road they always take.
    And, of course, Auden’s poetic heirs:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0LAs7X5ybE
    Note: Bipartisan immigration reform, within grasp, has been swept off the table infinite times by conservatives over the past 25 years. Their deep-thinking cadres, their Stephen Millers never is short supply, told them victory in (stolen) elections can be had for a generation by demonizing and denying the Other in America and the Other trying to enter America. There is a great reservoir of hatred to be tapped in the base. It’s political fracking. It’s what demagogues do and keep doing until their bellies are slit open in the public square.

  249. Geez. What part of “I yield” was so difficult to understand?
    You people are relentless.
    😉
    Marty has birthright citizenship at OBWI.
    Upvote.

  250. Geez. What part of “I yield” was so difficult to understand?
    You people are relentless.
    😉
    Marty has birthright citizenship at OBWI.
    Upvote.

  251. …and the Arizona US Senate seat
    Another 160,000 ballots processed today and Sinema(D) has taken a 9,600 vote lead. On the order of another half-million ballots to go…

  252. …and the Arizona US Senate seat
    Another 160,000 ballots processed today and Sinema(D) has taken a 9,600 vote lead. On the order of another half-million ballots to go…

  253. I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing.
    Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.

  254. I think that, as much as anything, the root cause was timing.
    Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.

  257. Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.
    Necessarily, since all those 0 to 17 year olds don’t vote, but they do absorb the culture around them. In contrast to us 65+ types, who vote but frequently based on the remembered culture of our youth.

  258. Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.
    Necessarily, since all those 0 to 17 year olds don’t vote, but they do absorb the culture around them. In contrast to us 65+ types, who vote but frequently based on the remembered culture of our youth.

  259. Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.
    Even without evil intent, the system is set up to skew older, whiter, richer, and more male than the voter population in general. As I say more often than I should, “Who’s the most underrepresented group of Americans in Congress and state legislatures? Hourly wage slaves.”

  260. Also in the sense that politics is a trailing indicator of where society and culture are headed.
    Even without evil intent, the system is set up to skew older, whiter, richer, and more male than the voter population in general. As I say more often than I should, “Who’s the most underrepresented group of Americans in Congress and state legislatures? Hourly wage slaves.”

  261. Apparently one of the victims of this latest shooting was a survivor of the Kas Begas shooting. What!?!

  262. Apparently one of the victims of this latest shooting was a survivor of the Kas Begas shooting. What!?!

  277. It’s not as easy to track down the sources of online threats as some police procedural TV shows would suggest. Nonetheless, we managed it with the Russian elections attacks. I hope someone manages to do it in Ms Ford’s case. (Maybe use some of the resources we currently waste pursuing marijuana users? With Sessions gone, that might even be possible….)
    The only way we get these scum to back off is if they start ending up in jail.

  278. It’s not as easy to track down the sources of online threats as some police procedural TV shows would suggest. Nonetheless, we managed it with the Russian elections attacks. I hope someone manages to do it in Ms Ford’s case. (Maybe use some of the resources we currently waste pursuing marijuana users? With Sessions gone, that might even be possible….)
    The only way we get these scum to back off is if they start ending up in jail.

  281. “If we don’t have good will toward men in this world, we will destroy ourselves,” King said. “There have always been those who argued that the end justifies the means, that the means really aren’t important,” he said. “But we will never have peace in the world until men everywhere recognize that ends are not cut off from means, because the means represent the ideal in the making, and the end in process, and ultimately you can’t reach good ends through evil means, because the means represent the seed and the end represents the tree.”
    From the Count’s New Yorker link over on the We are here to Witness thread, a wonderful quotation from Martin Luther King that I didn’t remember. This is a follow-up to our discussion of what is legitimate and what is not to counter the disgusting Trumpian regime and the miasma of intolerance and hatred it has spread….

  282. “If we don’t have good will toward men in this world, we will destroy ourselves,” King said. “There have always been those who argued that the end justifies the means, that the means really aren’t important,” he said. “But we will never have peace in the world until men everywhere recognize that ends are not cut off from means, because the means represent the ideal in the making, and the end in process, and ultimately you can’t reach good ends through evil means, because the means represent the seed and the end represents the tree.”
    From the Count’s New Yorker link over on the We are here to Witness thread, a wonderful quotation from Martin Luther King that I didn’t remember. This is a follow-up to our discussion of what is legitimate and what is not to counter the disgusting Trumpian regime and the miasma of intolerance and hatred it has spread….

  283. A little thought piece for those of you who suggest that I’m completely daft to think the GOP might ever step away from the crazies.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/moderate-republicans-arent-dead-theyre-hiding-in-plain-sight/2018/11/09/268c7b1c-e365-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html
    (Note that the author focuses on what we see at the local and state level, not the national level.)
    It will likely be a long, slow slog. But perhaps not entirely a fols errand after all.

  284. A little thought piece for those of you who suggest that I’m completely daft to think the GOP might ever step away from the crazies.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/moderate-republicans-arent-dead-theyre-hiding-in-plain-sight/2018/11/09/268c7b1c-e365-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html
    (Note that the author focuses on what we see at the local and state level, not the national level.)
    It will likely be a long, slow slog. But perhaps not entirely a fols errand after all.

  287. A little thought piece for those of you who suggest that I’m completely daft to think the GOP might ever step away from the crazies.
    That’s all good.
    Then again, some of them simply become (D)’s.
    Democrats – the party of sanity.
    And I don’t mind seeing the back of Rohrbacher.
    A new nullification crisis on the way
    I actually don’t mind if a state opts to decline federal money rather than comply with some regulation or other. Depends on the situation to some degree, but in principle it doesn’t bug me overly much.
    To go from that, to nullification, is a different story. Whitaker needs to go.

  288. A little thought piece for those of you who suggest that I’m completely daft to think the GOP might ever step away from the crazies.
    That’s all good.
    Then again, some of them simply become (D)’s.
    Democrats – the party of sanity.
    And I don’t mind seeing the back of Rohrbacher.
    A new nullification crisis on the way
    I actually don’t mind if a state opts to decline federal money rather than comply with some regulation or other. Depends on the situation to some degree, but in principle it doesn’t bug me overly much.
    To go from that, to nullification, is a different story. Whitaker needs to go.

  291. all of that said, I’d be delighted if the (R) party began cranking out Charlie Bakers everywhere. Baker is my governor, I have my issues with him, but he mostly is focused on keeping the lights on.
    and that, plus the fact that the legislature is utterly dominated by (D)’s, seems to be a workable arrangement. they balance each other, somewhat, and they mostly try to get stuff done.
    one phenomenon that is cited in wj’s piece is the fact that even “conservative” places are becoming more urbanized. for good or ill. but whether it’s for good or ill, it means they will also become less “conservative” in the sense that that term is used, in the US, in recent decades.
    specifically, it means they will become less anti-government. because population density brings the benefits of the public sector into sharp relief.
    and I’m not talking about welfare, I’m talking about stuff like transportation and trash collection.
    conservatives need to get their heads around the idea that the population is becoming increasingly urban. if they have policies that will serve that demographic well, then maybe they’ll continue to have a voice. if not, they’ll be left behind.
    not my circus, not my monkeys.

  292. all of that said, I’d be delighted if the (R) party began cranking out Charlie Bakers everywhere. Baker is my governor, I have my issues with him, but he mostly is focused on keeping the lights on.
    and that, plus the fact that the legislature is utterly dominated by (D)’s, seems to be a workable arrangement. they balance each other, somewhat, and they mostly try to get stuff done.
    one phenomenon that is cited in wj’s piece is the fact that even “conservative” places are becoming more urbanized. for good or ill. but whether it’s for good or ill, it means they will also become less “conservative” in the sense that that term is used, in the US, in recent decades.
    specifically, it means they will become less anti-government. because population density brings the benefits of the public sector into sharp relief.
    and I’m not talking about welfare, I’m talking about stuff like transportation and trash collection.
    conservatives need to get their heads around the idea that the population is becoming increasingly urban. if they have policies that will serve that demographic well, then maybe they’ll continue to have a voice. if not, they’ll be left behind.
    not my circus, not my monkeys.

  293. When the GOP finally decides to purge itself of the cRaZiES, it has the firearms on hand to do so. And knows where they live.
    Speed the day.

  294. When the GOP finally decides to purge itself of the cRaZiES, it has the firearms on hand to do so. And knows where they live.
    Speed the day.

  295. And I don’t mind seeing the back of Rohrbacher.
    Amen, brother, amen!
    (Besides, why does Putin need a Congressman any more, when he’s got a President? Gotta be far more cost-effective.)

  296. And I don’t mind seeing the back of Rohrbacher.
    Amen, brother, amen!
    (Besides, why does Putin need a Congressman any more, when he’s got a President? Gotta be far more cost-effective.)

  297. one phenomenon that is cited in wj’s piece is the fact that even “conservative” places are becoming more urbanized. for good or ill. but whether it’s for good or ill, it means they will also become less “conservative” in the sense that that term is used, in the US, in recent decades.
    I keep thinking. Suppose one of those Silicon Valley billionaires who give pots of money to the Democrats simple decided to site his next major development facility in, say, Wyoming. A small country town goes urban; a rural state with a tiny population suddenly acquires a very differeny demographic. Be a far more effective use of his money.

  298. one phenomenon that is cited in wj’s piece is the fact that even “conservative” places are becoming more urbanized. for good or ill. but whether it’s for good or ill, it means they will also become less “conservative” in the sense that that term is used, in the US, in recent decades.
    I keep thinking. Suppose one of those Silicon Valley billionaires who give pots of money to the Democrats simple decided to site his next major development facility in, say, Wyoming. A small country town goes urban; a rural state with a tiny population suddenly acquires a very differeny demographic. Be a far more effective use of his money.

  299. GftNC – I just hunted down King’s “A Christmas Sermon on Peace” and there’s a lot more in the sermon worth chewing on as well.
    Now let me suggest first that if we are to have peace on earth, our loyalties must become ecumenical rather than sectional. Our loyalties must transcend our race, our tribe, our class, and our nation; and this means we must develop a world perspective. No individual can live alone; no nation can live alone, and as long as we try, the more we are going to have war in this world. Now the judgment of God is upon us, and we must either learn to live together as brothers or we are all going to perish together as fools.
    Though we may perish together as fools even if humans learn to coexist if we cannot also learn to live in harmony with our ecosystem as well.

  300. GftNC – I just hunted down King’s “A Christmas Sermon on Peace” and there’s a lot more in the sermon worth chewing on as well.
    Now let me suggest first that if we are to have peace on earth, our loyalties must become ecumenical rather than sectional. Our loyalties must transcend our race, our tribe, our class, and our nation; and this means we must develop a world perspective. No individual can live alone; no nation can live alone, and as long as we try, the more we are going to have war in this world. Now the judgment of God is upon us, and we must either learn to live together as brothers or we are all going to perish together as fools.
    Though we may perish together as fools even if humans learn to coexist if we cannot also learn to live in harmony with our ecosystem as well.

  301. Thank you, Nous. That looks wonderful – will give it proper attention.
    The centennial ceremonies to mark the Armistice have been very moving. You all may be able to see some of it on the BBC. I’m certain I don’t have to tell you what the general attitude toward Trump has been, suffice to say that this photograph of Obama in 2010 has been much in evidence:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1061322527933415426/photo/1
    and Macron’s tweet with this one-word comment, ditto:
    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1061293561059201024

  302. Thank you, Nous. That looks wonderful – will give it proper attention.
    The centennial ceremonies to mark the Armistice have been very moving. You all may be able to see some of it on the BBC. I’m certain I don’t have to tell you what the general attitude toward Trump has been, suffice to say that this photograph of Obama in 2010 has been much in evidence:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1061322527933415426/photo/1
    and Macron’s tweet with this one-word comment, ditto:
    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1061293561059201024

  307. Katie Porter has been declared the winner in CA’s 45th, defeating Trump stalwart Mimi Walters. That’s Orange County aka The Orange Curtain. Young Kim, the last remaining OC Republican in the house has just fallen behind Gil Cisneros by almost a thousand votes and the late ballots have been going his way 58/42. Reagan’s launching pad has flipped.

  308. Katie Porter has been declared the winner in CA’s 45th, defeating Trump stalwart Mimi Walters. That’s Orange County aka The Orange Curtain. Young Kim, the last remaining OC Republican in the house has just fallen behind Gil Cisneros by almost a thousand votes and the late ballots have been going his way 58/42. Reagan’s launching pad has flipped.

  309. dem-wins-leave-behind-a-more-conservative-gop-conference
    it almost couldn’t be otherwise.
    winning elections in the US is mostly about shifting the center, because the edges will never change. the center shifts slightly left or slight right during a ‘wave’, but the edges remain.

  310. dem-wins-leave-behind-a-more-conservative-gop-conference
    it almost couldn’t be otherwise.
    winning elections in the US is mostly about shifting the center, because the edges will never change. the center shifts slightly left or slight right during a ‘wave’, but the edges remain.

  311. Jared Golden has been declared the winner in Maine’s 2nd district with the RCV count finished. Poliquin is still misleading the public, grasping at straws, and pursuing his lawsuit to try to nullify RCV, even though the voters approved it by referendum not once but twice, and even though it has been upheld in court several times already.
    And if you were around here and paying attention for the past few years, it would not surprise you to hear that Poliquin is being as ungracious and sneery about it as possible.
    Poliquin and LePage: nice to see your backsides. Especially sweet: “Poliquin’s loss will leave Maine Sen. Susan Collins as the only Republican member of the New England congressional delegation, which includes 34 senators and representatives.” Praying for rain, so to speak, in 2020.

  312. Jared Golden has been declared the winner in Maine’s 2nd district with the RCV count finished. Poliquin is still misleading the public, grasping at straws, and pursuing his lawsuit to try to nullify RCV, even though the voters approved it by referendum not once but twice, and even though it has been upheld in court several times already.
    And if you were around here and paying attention for the past few years, it would not surprise you to hear that Poliquin is being as ungracious and sneery about it as possible.
    Poliquin and LePage: nice to see your backsides. Especially sweet: “Poliquin’s loss will leave Maine Sen. Susan Collins as the only Republican member of the New England congressional delegation, which includes 34 senators and representatives.” Praying for rain, so to speak, in 2020.

  313. winning elections in the US is mostly about shifting the center, because the edges will never change. the center shifts slightly left or slight right during a ‘wave’, but the edges remain.
    It’s an opportunity to find out whether a party has some smart politicians, as opposed to ideological hacks. Smart politicians will look past the composition of their Congressional delegation to see what they need to do to get back to a majority. Ideological hacks will live happily in their little bubble.

  314. winning elections in the US is mostly about shifting the center, because the edges will never change. the center shifts slightly left or slight right during a ‘wave’, but the edges remain.
    It’s an opportunity to find out whether a party has some smart politicians, as opposed to ideological hacks. Smart politicians will look past the composition of their Congressional delegation to see what they need to do to get back to a majority. Ideological hacks will live happily in their little bubble.

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