"This was the voice of moderation until 13 Sept, 2025"
by von Andrew Sullivan: McCain On Afghanistan It's a good sign that Obama cannot win. If he exerts caution, he's an incrementalist, as in Vietnam. If he withdraws, he's flying the white flag of surrender. And so the man who won the election is being goaded by the man who lost it. This isn't what … Read more
by Eric Martin The unfortunate truth about nuclear non-proliferation is that any country that is determined enough to obtain nuclear weapons – and that has the resources and the technological savvy to complement the will and economic means – can eventually become a nuclear-armed power. However, there are good reasons for the US and the … Read more
by Eric Martin For several months there has been speculation (both on the right and left) that General David Petraeus might throw his hat in the ring as a would-be contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016. Considering the uninspiring roster of GOP hopefuls (from Palin and Huckabee to Romney and Jindal), it's easy to … Read more
by hilzoy From CongressDaily, via the Wonk Room: "Senate Majority Leader Reid said today he would drop a cram-down provision from a House-passed banking bill if the language threatened to keep the Senate from passing the overall bill. The provision would allow a bankruptcy judge to reduce a homeowner's mortgage principal. "If we can't get … Read more
by publius Noted climatologist George Will shifted gears to constitutional law yesterday, arguing that the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) (i.e., the bailout) is unconstitutional. The specific claim is that it violates the nondelegation doctrine, which holds that "legislative" acts cannot be "delegated" to other entities, particularly the executive branch. There are at … Read more
by hilzoy Rod Dreher has a very puzzling post about gay marriage. There are some bits I will not engage with — for instance, while believing that gay sex is sinful might be part of Dreher's religious tradition, I do not think it's at all integral to the Bible; in fact, I have always thought … Read more
by hilzoy Andrew Klavan in the LA Times: "If you are reading this newspaper, the likelihood is that you agree with the Obama administration's recent attacks on conservative radio talker Rush Limbaugh. That's the likelihood; here's the certainty: You've never listened to Rush Limbaugh. Oh no, you haven't. Whenever I interrupt a liberal's anti-Limbaugh rant … Read more
by publius Evan Bayh's working group hasn't exactly taken the liberal blogosphere by storm. The reaction has been critical, and the most common complaint is that it's simply a tool for business interests. That fear may prove correct. But let me be devil's advocate for a moment and at least try to present a more … Read more
by hilzoy I wonder why people are so angry about bonuses. Do they hate the rich? Do they want to punish success?Are they eaten up inside with resentment? Do they just not want to admit that some people work harder and are more talented than they are? Or could it be one too many stories … Read more
by hilzoy From CNN: "Thousands of buildings at U.S. bases in Iraq and Afghanistan have such poorly installed wiring that American troops face life-threatening risks, a top inspector for the Army says. (…) "It was horrible — some of the worst electrical work I've ever seen," said Jim Childs, a master electrician and the top … Read more
by hilzoy When John McCain nominated Sarah Palin for Vice President, I (along with a whole lot of other non-Alaskans) suddenly developed an interest in Alaskan politics, and one of the best political blogs I found was Mudflats, written by a blogger who went by the name of AKMuckraker. It didn't occur to me to … Read more
by publius (Cross-posted at WashMonthly. I’m not going to cross-post everything, but wanted to get people’s thoughts here on this). Count me among the skeptical of Obama's new Afghanistan strategy. What really worries me is what I'll call the "reverse canary" problem. Simply put, the wrong people are too happy. You're all familiar with the … Read more
by publius I just wanted to let people know that Steve Benen was kind enough to let me guest-post at the Washington Monthly through Monday. So I'll be there, furthering the Obsidian Wings takeover of the site…
by von That middle-class tax cut President Obama promised during the campaign? Here begins the walkback: President Obama's budget chief hinted Wednesday that the president's signature campaign issue — a middle-class tax cut — will not likely survive a budget battle with Democrats on Capitol Hill. I predicted a bit ago that "The next set … Read more
by Eric Martin Certain foreign policy objectives pursued by the Russian government over the past decade are beginning to bump up against the basic fiscal reality. It's quite simple really: long term military deployments are enormously expensive and can crowd out other vital budgetary initiatives. There is only so much money, attention and other resources to go around, and if military engagements are consuming … Read more
by hilzoy When I read blog posts or comments complaining about people who should have known better than to sign up for mortgages they couldn't afford, I'm always of two minds. On the one hand, I'm quite sure that there are a decent number of people who knowingly gambled on the proposition that housing prices … Read more
by publius Like hilzoy, I found the GOP budget bubbles adorably cute. I was hoping to see more underpants gnomes though. That's honestly the only real critique I have of this fine product — the underpants gnomishness is left implicit. (If any graphically-inclined readers want to take a stab at "gnoming" the bubbles, I'd be … Read more
by hilzoy I've been trying to figure out what to say about the House Republicans' new "budget". I think it's pretty neat that they decided to use those cute bubbles instead of numbers. Maybe next week they'll present their budget using interpretive dance or little animated jelly beans. I also like the way they say … Read more
by von Ross Douthat's recent back–and–forth with Ta-Nehisi Coates regarding crime and race is one of those conversations as likely to generate unwelcome heat as much as needed light. But, since every good blog is a kitchen with the oven on, let's not concern ourselves with the risks of a little more sweat. In Conservatives, Crime Policy, and the … Read more
by Eric Martin Shocked, shocked I tell you: The Taliban’s widening campaign in southern Afghanistan is made possible in part by direct support from operatives in Pakistan’s military intelligence agency, despite Pakistani government promises to sever ties to militant groups fighting in Afghanistan, according to American government officials. The support consists of money, military supplies … Read more
by hilzoy From the NYT: "As the operations manager of a outreach center for the homeless here, Paul Stack is used to seeing people down on their luck. What he had never seen before was people living in tents and lean-tos on the railroad lot across from the center. "They just popped up about 18 … Read more
by Eric Martin Max Bergmann seeks to challenge the prevailing conventional wisdom that, to use his phrasing, "Afghanistan is harder than Iraq." Part of the problem with Bergmann's piece is that he doesn't really describe what exactly it is that would be harder – or just as hard. It depends on what his definition of "is" is. In the piece, Bergmann explains that one … Read more
by von There has been a great deal of outrage — both here and elsewhere — regarding how much blame should fall on folks working in the financial sector (e.g., "Wall Street [types]", the "Masters of the Universe," etc.). Many harsh words have been directed at AIG. A lot of those harsh words were deserved. But some were not. Jake DeSantis' open letter of resignation … Read more
by hilzoy I saw Obama's press conference, and I thought it was quite good, in a sober, unremarkable way. I just wanted to note two minor points that struck me First, everyone who asked a question had the chance to ask a follow-up. I don't have the heart to go back and look at Bush's … Read more
by publius A big part of the intra-liberal debate over the Geithner plan is whether or not to nationalize the banks. But is it really an either/or question? Could we do both the Geithner plan AND nationalization simultaneously? Nouriel Roubini seems to think so: “I see the option of nationalization” and the one presented by … Read more
by publius The Specter switch on the EFCA is disappointing, but not surprising. It matters because he was the 60th vote, assuming all the Democrats (including Franken) stayed on board. Of course, the latter assumption of Democratic unity may be questionable — but there would have been enormous pressure on the individual Democrats not to … Read more
by Eric Martin Andrew Exum responds, in brief, to my post on the blurring of the lines between those that develop counterinsurgency (COIN) operational doctrine and those that counsel for its use as part of an overall grand strategy – specifically, I commented on the tendency of many high profile COIN practitioners to advocate using COIN-intensive tactics in … Read more
by hilzoy Via TPM, a Wall Street Journal article that says, basically, that at first the Obama administration did not particularly seek out Wall Street's advice: "In late January, as Treasury Secretary Geithner prepared his proposal for handling the banking crisis, administration officials avoiding seeking input from Wall Street. "Those people are tainted," said one aide at … Read more
by publius My view has shifted a bit on the Geithner/Obama plan. I’m gone from opposing it outright to agnosticism to tepid skeptical support – largely because of DeLong, Drum, Thoma, and Surowiecki. And since I know a lot more about telecom policy than finance, I’ll try to squeeze an analogy out of the telecom … Read more
by hilzoy Andrew Sullivan has found a fascinating meditation on the nature of conservatism. I reprint the parts Andrew quoted below, with the links that the author inexplicably omitted. "Conservatism is "formless" like water: it takes the shape of its conditions, but always remains the same. This is why Russell Kirk calls conservatism the "negation … Read more
by Eric Martin With the deadline nearing for the Obama administration to complete its comprehensive strategic review of the conflict in Afghanistan, Daniel Byman has written a timely piece on the contours of negotiating with insurgent groups (via). Talking with insurgents is often a necessary first step toward defeating them or reaching an acceptable compromise. These … Read more
by von I share Hilzoy's concerns regarding the so-called "Geithner Plan"* (1, 2). The Obama Administration's plan to save certain banks includes a host of incentives for bad behavior, waste, and general tomfoolery. I don't know whether these problems can be fixed or whether the plan should be scrapped; however, it's not a promising start … Read more
by publius The EFCA compromise being floated is a promising, if still inadequate, development. It does, however, illustrate the importance of strong opening bargaining positions and sustained political pressure. Both are starting to bear fruit. Anyway, in thinking about the Whole Foods/Starbucks/Costco proposal, it’s worth remembering that the EFCA incorporates several distinct issues under one … Read more
by hilzoy In my last post I argued that the auctions Sec. Geithner is (by all accounts) about to propose as part of his plan to solve the problems with the banking industry might not work at all; that if they did work, they would do so by giving buyers an incentive to overpay, with both … Read more
by hilzoy Some negative reactions to the Geithner plan: Krugman, more Krugman, Calculated Risk, Yves Smith, James K. Galbraith, Henry Blodget, Noam Scheiber. Brad DeLong, on the other hand, likes it, and whether you agree with him or not, he's made the strongest case I can think of for it, and it's absolutely worth reading, … Read more