Month: January 2008

In Which I Am Reduced To Blind Sputtering Fury

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by hilzoy Via TAPPED, an absolutely astonishing quote from Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic: “Just before the “Mission Accomplished” phase of the war, I spoke about Kurdistan to an audience that included Norman Podhoretz, the vicariously martial neoconservative who is now a Middle East adviser to Rudolph Giuliani. After the event, Podhoretz seemed authentically bewildered. … Read more

Clinton, Edwards, And Obama On Transgender Issues

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by hilzoy Autumn Sandeen at Pam’s House Blend has a rundown of where the top three Democratic candidates stand on transgender issues. Short version: Obama is most clearly in favor, with statements like: “The transgendered community has to be protected. I just don’t have any tolerance for that sort of intolerance. And I think we … Read more

Mike Huckabee Forgets About Rendering Unto Caesar The Things That Are Caesar’s …

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by hilzoy Today, Mike Huckabee continued his outreach to Log Cabin Republicans (the parts in bold are the interviewer’s questions): “Is it your goal to bring the Constitution into strict conformity with the Bible? Some people would consider that a kind of dangerous undertaking, particularly given the variety of biblical interpretations. Well, I don’t think … Read more

Romney’s Idiot Schtick

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by publius Aside from its pesky illegitimacy, the Iowa election – on the GOP side – was deeply reassuring to me. For a brief moment, it threatened to restore my faith in Republican voters – not so much for electing Huckabee, but for rejecting Romney. To be blunt, Huckabee’s not my candidate of choice, but … Read more

More Poetry. More Thread.

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by hilzoy Just because. I felt a Funeral, in my Brain, And Mourners to and fro Kept treading–treading–till it seemed That Sense was breaking through– And when they all were seated, A Service, like a Drum– Kept beating–beating–till I thought My Mind was going numb– And then I heard them lift a Box And creak … Read more

Poetry: Open Thread

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by hilzoy “Nature’s first green is gold Her hardest hue to hold. Her early leaf’s a flower; But only so an hour. Then leaf subsides to leaf. So Eden sank to grief, So dawn goes down to day. Nothing gold can stay.” Robert Frost I sent that to Andy once, and he wrote back to … Read more

Six Degrees of Richard Cohen

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by publius Richard Cohen: Barack Obama is a member of Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama’s spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright’s daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, … Read more

Politics As Usual: Who Engages In Voter Supression Again?

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One of the strongest objections to the Clinton candidacy is that it represents an unhealthy continuation of politics as usual.  Clinton’s supporters in Nevada exhibit this in their recently filed lawsuit in which they attempt to destroy a voting procedure they helped create once it becomes apparent that it won’t help Clinton.  In a process … Read more

“One Of Us”

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by hilzoy I just couldn’t let this delightful comment by Kathryn Lopez at NRO pass unremarked. She’s talking about John McCain: ” I’m second to none in praising him on his surge leadership. But on a whole host of issues — including water boarding, tax cuts, and the freedom of speech — he’s not one … Read more

Playing To Win

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by hilzoy

As many of you know, I haven’t been following political coverage for the past week or so. While this presents some problems for me as a blogger, it does have a few advantages, and one of them is: having missed all the coverage of Hillary’s Tears, I do not need to wonder whether I am being unduly affected by it. (I did see the video of The Tears themselves, and failed to see what all the fuss was about.)

My main concern about Hillary Clinton has always concerned foreign policy. On the domestic side, I think that the proposals of the three main Democratic candidates are pretty close to one another, close enough that their differences will be swamped by whatever changes have to be made to them in order to get them adopted. On foreign policy, however, I think that she and Obama are quite different, for reasons I hope to explain later. Moreover, as Matt Yglesias and Tom Schaller (see also Ari Berman) have pointed out, her advisors tended to support the war in Iraq, while Obama’s tended to oppose it, and this worries me a great deal.

Most of all, though, there is her vote on the Iraq war. Whether she voted as she did because she thought it was right or because she thought that George W. Bush was trustworthy enough that Congress could authorize him to go to war confident in the knowledge that he would not abuse that power, that vote, the most important she cast as a Senator, was disastrously wrong. Moreover, she didn’t just vote for the Iraq War Resolution; she voted against the Levin Amendment, which would have required Bush to go back to the UN for authorization to use military force. And she cast this vote without having bothered to read the relevant National Intelligence Estimate. Which is to say: she took the decision whether or not to go to war — to invade another country, and to put both Iraqi citizens and members of our military in harm’s way — without bothering to do her homework first.

Given a choice between Clinton and any intelligent, well-informed, basically sane candidate who inhabits some recognizable corner of the reality-based community, and who did not support the decision to go to war, Clinton’s vote for the Iraq War resolution, especially in light of her vote against the Levin Amendment and her failure to inform herself adequately, is a dealbreaker for me.

All this started out as a preface to my main point, which concerns the political effects that nominating Clinton would have. Briefly: while my main reasons for opposing Clinton involve policy (see above), I also think that to nominate her would be to throw away a political opportunity that comes along once in a generation. I’ll put my arguments for that point below the fold.

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Red State Weathervanes

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by publius I generally don’t put much stock in endorsements. But Obama’s recent wave of red state Senator endorsements (plus Gov. Napolitano) seems significant. These include Senators Nelson (NE), Johnson (SD), and McCaskill (MO). My take is that these endorsements stem not so much from love for Obama, but from a perceived political need to … Read more

Obama Christ, Superstar

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by publius Book of John 1:1, 14 In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. . . . And the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us[.] Ezra Klein: [Obama] is not the Word made flesh, but the triumph of word over flesh, over color, … Read more

AT&T’s New Love for Copyright

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by publius Late last year, the FCC invited a new round of comments on net neutrality (and broadband access competition more generally). Somewhat strangely, NBC jumped into the fray, arguing that network providers should be required to monitor their networks for digital copyright violations. Somewhat less strangely, AT&T representatives at a big industry forum this … Read more

Gender and New Hampshire – Part I

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by publius

As an Obama guy, I’m obviously disappointed. But given how insanely unpredictable things have been, I’ll pass tonight on predicting what it all means. My first thought was that it’s a body blow for Obama given that Clinton is the establishment candidate. But that’s probably premature – as several commenters in the last thread have reminded me.

Instead, I want to focus on the gender backlash theory that’s gaining traction as the explanation for Clinton’s win. The nickel version is that women went overwhelmingly (and seemingly suddenly) for Clinton in response to the excessive HRC-bashing following Iowa, and more specifically, following the tears. These specific events, in turn, took place against the larger backdrop of frustration that many women have felt about Clinton’s media treatment throughout the election. The theory may be rubbish, but I’m assuming the theory is correct for purposes of this post (and, frankly, I think it is correct).

With that disclaimer, one positive result of Clinton’s victory is that it will force the media (and me) to pay more attention to women’s grievances about the election coverage. For this very reason, I’ve been reflecting tonight on why exactly I oppose Clinton in the primary. Frankly, I wanted to make sure I opposed her for the right reasons, and that I wasn’t holding her to unfair standards. And for reasons I’ll explain, I sincerely believe that I am doing it for the right reasons.

I fully concede that sexism (perhaps subconsciously) is playing a role in her wretched media coverage. This many women this angry can’t all be wrong. There’s definitely some there there – some “there” that I wasn’t seeing (or perhaps ignoring).

But that said, I personally find that a lot of my opposition to Clinton has less to do with her than with an emotional attachment to Obama. Against my better judgment perhaps, I truly believe that Obama could be a game-changer. Ezra Klein caught some crap for it, but I understand the emotions that led him to write those words.

Coming of political age in the Gingrich/late Clinton era, I’ve never really been inspired by any politician. It’s been a mix of outrage and ironic detachment from ’94 on. So you should forgive Ezra – and our generation more generally – if we use some flowing rhetoric from time to time. It’s a newfangled thing for us – and we’re not that good at it. It’s like getting drunk for the first time. You may utter some stupid stuff, but it’s still fun, so you don’t really care.

When the primary fumes pass, we’ll all come around to Clinton, especially compared to the GOP monstrosities. But with Clinton, my perception is that none of this inspired future is possible. Hers will be a competent, moderate, K Street-friendly administration. But I want more – and I think the nation could get more. Thus, my frustration with Clinton’s victory probably has less to do with her personally, than with the fact that I see a very different sort of future slipping away if she wins (or if Edwards wins for that matter). Sure, I’m probably overestimating Obama’s potential energy, but so what. I think it’s just as possible that people are underestimating it. I’m with Andrew Sullivan on that point.

But even putting Obama aside, I want to emphasize that my opposition to Clinton herself is policy-based rather than personality-based.* The problem is that the specific types of policy disagreements I have with Clinton are ones that generate strong emotions. Thus, it’s easy to mistake emotional-yet-ultimately-policy-based critiques with unfair sexism (though I’m not denying that sexism plays a role for many opponents). Here then is a brief rundown of those policy disagreements.

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Ugh

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by publius This is not looking good at all. Even if Obama pulls it out, it’s enough to trigger the “Comeback Kid” narrative. Plus, McCain is now very viable. Not a great night thus far. UPDATE: Hmm… Clinton apparently won among women 47-34. That’s a lot. Maybe there was a backlash to the post-Iowa bashing. … Read more

Turnout

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by publius Huge turnout is reported in New Hampshire. In fact, some towns are afraid of running out of ballots — Democratic ballots: The New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office is in the process of locating extra ballots to ship to towns that have expressed concern that supplies are running low. The concern is primarily … Read more

A More Appropriate Thread

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by hilzoy Jeff, in comments to a previous thread, wrote: “Note: there are things in comments that I’d like to reply to, and in a few days, when there’s a new thread available for such things, I probably will. But how difficult is it to say to yourself “This precious gem of a idea can … Read more

Remembering Andy Olmsted

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by hilzoy

As before, my thoughts are with Andy’s wife and family, and the families and friends of CPT Tom Casey, who was killed with Andy, and SFC William Beaver, who was wounded.

Here’s a picture of Andy and his unit, from their last newsletter*:

Andys_unit

CPT Casey is in the back, second from the left; SFC Beaver is beside him, holding the Merry Christmas sign; Andy is fifth from the left, holding the other end of the sign and smiling.

I think Andy would be astonished at the amount of attention his last post received. He could be pretty self-effacing that way: he was about as far as it’s possible to be from the sort of blogger who writes because he’s convinced that the world is just waiting for his pearls of wisdom. Andy was never sure what kind of impact, if any, what he wrote had. I think he wrote partly because he liked it, but partly because he thought: even if you don’t know that anyone will read what you write, all you can do is try your best to put reasonable arguments out there, in the hope that somehow, somewhere, they might do some good.

That was the kind of person Andy was.

He’d be embarrassed by all the fuss, and genuinely surprised, but deep down, I think it would have meant the world to him. I just wish he could be here to see it.

[Update: I meant to include this comment from one of the men in Andy’s unit, who was with him on his final mission:

“Major Olmsted died while attempting to get the enemy to surrender so we would not have to kill them.

Captain Casey could not leave his commander on the ground.

They are the bravest men I have known. They are both heroes. We will carry their example and continue the mission.”

And while I’m at it: I should have included links to the post Andy wrote on his reasons for going to Iraq; and to his old blog, where you can read a lot of his earlier writing. You can find some more of his work on this blog, both under his own name and as G’Kar.

Some of you have wondered why he blogged here under both names, and why we weren’t clearer about that fact. Andy stopped blogging here (and on his old site) because he discovered that by doing so, he was violating a DoD regulation (as he describes here.) He loved blogging, though, and so, some months later, he asked whether he could post under another name. I think I made some feeble attempt to talk him out of it, but my heart wasn’t in it: I loved what he wrote, and I always wanted to see more of it.

On the day he died, he was planning to write a post when he returned from his mission, on Edwards’ proposal to terminate all training missions in Iraq. I had no idea what he planned to say, and I couldn’t wait to read it.

Also: in comments to the last thread, Gary mentioned Andy’s silly side. Here, for what it’s worth, is a little memorial to his silliness. It’s not by miles the best I have, but I don’t have the heart to go looking for better ones; this one leapt to mind since it’s from the day before he died. The relevant background: Andy and I were chatting on Adium; some calamity had befallen the heat in Andy’s room, and he had mentioned being quite cold; I had gone to put my laundry in the dryer, and had just returned.

Andy: *waves to laundry*

Me: *laundry would wave back, but has been trapped in dryer*

Andy: *runs to free laundry*

Me: *laundry thinks: our saviour!*

Me: *laundry offers toasty warmness to Andy*

Andy: *hugs laundry*

Me: *laundry hugs Andy*

Andy: *smiles*

Me: *though, in fairness, laundry would hug anyone who let it out of horrid dryer*

The fact that no one will ever, spontaneously, write *hugs laundry* to me again seems unimaginably sad.]

[Further Update: From the Rocky Mountain News:

“”They were pursuing some insurgents,” Casey’s brother, Jeffrey, said. “Major Olmsted got out of his vehicle and was pleading with these three individuals to stop and surrender so that the team would not have to fire upon them and kill them.”

“Unfortunately, there were snipers in the area, and apparently that’s when Major Olmsted was hit,” Jeffrey Casey added. “He didn’t want to kill these individuals. He was trying to save their lives.”

After the gunfire erupted, Thomas Casey went to help Olmsted, thinking that the three suspected insurgents were responsible for the shooting, his brother said.

“That’s when he took his bullet,” Jeffrey Casey said. “The fact that a sniper round caught him in the neck . . . that’s just one of those fluke one-in-a-million shots.””

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Andy Olmsted

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by hilzoy

Andrew Olmsted, who also posted here as G’Kar, was killed yesterday in Iraq. Andy gave me a post to publish in the event of his death; the last revisions to it were made in July.

Andy was a wonderful person: decent, honorable, generous, principled, courageous, sweet, and very funny. The world has a horrible hole in it that nothing can fill. I’m glad Andy — generous as always — wrote something for me to publish now, since I have no words at all. Beyond: Andy, I will miss you.

My thoughts are with his wife, his parents, and his brother and sister.

What follows is Andy’s post: a bit here; the rest below the fold. [UPDATE: I’m adding links to Andy’s last post at his Rocky Mountain News blogs, from about a week ago, where friends and family are expressing support in comments; to an article from yesterday that I believe is about his death; and to a post he wrote on his reasons for going to Iraq last June.]

[FURTHER UPDATE: Somehow, I thought that given Andy’s wish that his death not be politicized, people would refrain from political rants. Most of you have, for which I thank you. Anyone who does not respect his wishes, in this thread, will have his or her comment deleted. I am disemvowelling the one that has already appeared. END FURTHER UPDATE.]

***

"I am leaving this message for you because it appears I must leave sooner than I intended. I would have preferred to say this in person, but since I cannot, let me say it here."
G’Kar, Babylon 5

"Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Plato*

This is an entry I would have preferred not to have published, but there are limits to what we can control in life, and apparently I have passed one of those limits. And so, like G’Kar, I must say here what I would much prefer to say in person. I want to thank hilzoy for putting it up for me. It’s not easy asking anyone to do something for you in the event of your death, and it is a testament to her quality that she didn’t hesitate to accept the charge. As with many bloggers, I have a disgustingly large ego, and so I just couldn’t bear the thought of not being able to have the last word if the need arose. Perhaps I take that further than most, I don’t know. I hope so. It’s frightening to think there are many people as neurotic as I am in the world. In any case, since I won’t get another chance to say what I think, I wanted to take advantage of this opportunity. Such as it is.

"When some people die, it’s time to be sad. But when other people die, like really evil people, or the Irish, it’s time to celebrate."
Jimmy Bender, "Greg the Bunny"

"And maybe now it’s your turn
To die kicking some ass."
Freedom Isn’t Free, Team America

What I don’t want this to be is a chance for me, or anyone else, to be maudlin. I’m dead. That sucks, at least for me and my family and friends. But all the tears in the world aren’t going to bring me back, so I would prefer that people remember the good things about me rather than mourning my loss. (If it turns out a specific number of tears will, in fact, bring me back to life, then by all means, break out the onions.) I had a pretty good life, as I noted above. Sure, all things being equal I would have preferred to have more time, but I have no business complaining with all the good fortune I’ve enjoyed in my life. So if you’re up for that, put on a little 80s music (preferably vintage 1980-1984), grab a Coke and have a drink with me. If you have it, throw ‘Freedom Isn’t Free’ from the Team America soundtrack in; if you can’t laugh at that song, I think you need to lighten up a little. I’m dead, but if you’re reading this, you’re not, so take a moment to enjoy that happy fact.

[continued below the fold]

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More Iowa

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by publius

Random Iowa observations below the fold – and I tried to limit myself to non-obvious points that everyone and their brother hasn’t already made. This post is also a bit stream of consciousness (with the added obstacle of simultaneously watching TV), so pardon the lack of polish.

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Iowa

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by hilzoy Naturally, I am posting at the worst possible moment: too late to have whatever minimal effect I might have had, and too early to say who has won. (Although no sooner had I typed that sentence than CNN called the Democratic caucuses for Obama. The Republicans have already been called for Huckabee.) I … Read more

Release the Herd

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by publius Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that Ben Smith thinks people might be underestimating the reaction to an Obama victory: While conventional insider wisdom is taking the possibility of an Obama win very seriously, and while the prospect of an Obama presidency is something Iowa Democrats are mulling, I’m not sure people around America, … Read more

McCain and Iowa

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by publius I’ve been growing increasingly frightened that McCain will win the nomination. His candidacy has seemed dead for so long that I had stopped paying attention to him. But he’s now very much in it – depending in part on how Iowa goes tonight. To back up, I’ve always believed that McCain (and Rudy) … Read more

Iowa Predictions Open Thread

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by publius In the all-important contest for a statistically insignificant number of delegates, chosen from a tiny fraction of Democratic voters in a undemocratic and vote-suppressing caucus system, I predict the following outcome: 1 – Obama 2 – Edwards 3 – Clinton I was tempted to put Edwards in as number 1, but couldn’t quite … Read more

An Amazing Cinderella Story

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by publius Associated Press, “Rockets Take Commanding Lead; Analysts Say Victory Over Celtics Likely Inevitable” The Rockets’ Shane Battier opened the game with a three-pointer, all but assuring victory in the much-anticipated clash with the Boston Celtics, who currently boast the best record in the Eastern Conference. Battier’s shot put the Rockets ahead 3-0, with … Read more

Farewell To A Giant

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by hilzoy I note with chagrin that Thomas at RedState has decided to retire from RedState, and that he has chosen to thank us as he leaves: “Fifth, I want to take a moment to thank Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, Duncan Black, Oliver Willis, the whole crew at Obsidian Wings, and the writers of any other … Read more

Iraq: Situation stabilizing

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by Charles

[Updated at the end]

Last January, I wrote that I would give the surge ’til November (later changed to year end), and if there was no discernible progress, I would opt for Plan B, which would be an orderly, phased unilateral withdrawal of American forces.  From what I’ve seen, I think we should stick with Plan A.  December was another month of low civilian casualties…

Civcasidec2007

…and the three month moving average also illustrates this favorable trend.

And military casualties are following that trend as well.

The improved security situation has contributed to higher oil production.  Also surging is confidence in the Iraq economy.  Last month, in its report to Congress, the Dept. of Defense summarized the situation, and following are some excerpts:

More below the fold…

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