Gerson’s Pants-on-Fire Problem

by publius Anyone care to take a stab at what Gerson means by this: The resentment of Sunni tribal leaders against al-Qaeda’s highhanded brutality predated the surge — but the surge gave those leaders the confidence and ability to oppose al-Qaeda. The surge was proposed in December, 2006, following the elections. The Anbar tribes made … Read more

Cholera In Iraq

by hilzoy From the NYT: “A cholera epidemic in northern Iraq has infected approximately 7,000 people and could reach Baghdad within weeks as the disease spreads through the country’s decrepit and unsanitary water system, Iraqi health officials said Tuesday. The World Health Organization reported that the epidemic is concentrated in the northern regions of Kirkuk … Read more

Alex: RIP

by hilzoy From the NYT: “He knew his colors and shapes, he learned more than 100 English words, and with his own brand of one-liners he established himself in TV shows, scientific reports, and news articles as perhaps the world’s most famous talking bird. But last week Alex, an African Grey parrot, died, apparently of … Read more

Depressed Reflections

by hilzoy I can’t think what to say about 9/11. I just can’t. The combination of the fact that it’s still raw for me, my anger at the uses to which the murder of so many people has been put, and my near-despair about our inability to deal honestly with the war in Iraq seems … Read more

No More Talkey Talkey

by publius I skipped amateur hour yesterday, but I’ve been watching the Senate hearing this morning. It’s been rather exhausting. For instance, I would love to see a pie chart illustrating the amount of time the Senators (collectively) talked versus Petraeus and Crocker’s collective time. I’d guess the Petraeus/Crocker slice is pretty small. The long-windedness … Read more

More Petraeus

by hilzoy (Publius and I think alike — I just saw his post. Luckily, we made different points, so I don’t have to scrap this.) For some reason, I’m just feeling depressed about the Petraeus and Crocker Reports: too depressed to write much that’s interesting about them. They were as predicted: Petraeus called for a … Read more

Petraeus

by publius To avoid having our blogger licenses revoked, I figured I better talk about Petraeus’s testimony today. There are already volumes out there, so I’ll just make some quick points about the Fox News exclusive interview. To me, it’s pretty simple. It’s not that Petraeus is dodging hard questions. It’s that Bush is no … Read more

Noted Without Comment

by hilzoy From the LATimes: “Exploring the neurobiology of politics, scientists have found that liberals tolerate ambiguity and conflict better than conservatives because of how their brains work. In a simple experiment being reported today in the journal Nature Neuroscience, scientists at New York University and UCLA show that political orientation is related to differences … Read more

A Study In Contrasts

by hilzoy From the NYT: “Private insurance companies participating in Medicare have been allowed to keep tens of millions of dollars that should have gone to consumers, and the Bush administration did not properly audit the companies or try to recover money paid in error, Congressional investigators say in a new report. (…) Under federal … Read more

Be Even More Afraid

by hilzoy

Just to add to Publius’ last post: to judge by the reviews of his book, and by the passages quoted in them, Norman Podhoretz is certifiably crazy. From the Peter Beinart’s NYT review:

“What really interests Podhoretz, who now advises Rudolph Giuliani, isn’t the Islamic world; it’s the home front. The news media, he explains, are in favor of “an American defeat in Iraq.” So are the former national security advisers Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft. Why do these ostensibly patriotic Americans want to see their nation humiliated and its troops killed? Because it will help their careers. Many “Realists … along with most liberal internationalists,” he writes, “were rooting for an American defeat as the only way to save their worldview from winding up on the ash heap of history.” And thus, Podhoretz lays the foundation for claiming — if America loses in Iraq — that we were stabbed in the back. Which, as Theodore Draper noted 25 years ago in a review of Podhoretz’s book “Why We Were in Vietnam,” is exactly what he did the last time America lost a major war.”

To suggest that Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski want America to be defeated in Iraq is calumny. Moreover, it’s insane on its face. Besides all the obvious reasons, consider that Scowcroft and Brzezinski are supposed to want America to be defeated in order to help their careers. But Scowcroft is 82 years old, and Brzezinski is 79. While I wish them long life and good health, they’d have to be idiots to bank on having extensive future careers, and neither Scowcroft nor Brzezinski is an idiot.

Moving right along, here’s a passage from a review by Ian Buruma in the New York Review of Books:

“It would be absurd to claim that those who doubt the efficacy of the Bush Doctrine fail to recognize the horrors of Saddam Hussein’s regime, or the desire among Arabs and Muslims, no less than other people, to live prosperous lives free of tyranny. Equally nonsensical is the notion that only the supporters of Bush’s war are serious about fighting Islamist terrorism. Or that anyone who sees merit in attempts by some European Muslims to reconcile their religious orthodoxy with Western democracy is a dupe who defends extremism, or a coward who has been intimidated by acts of terror. Yet these claims are being made in World War IV, as well as other places.

Here is how Podhoretz describes Bush’s critics:

…They seem to take it for granted that Arabs and/or Muslims are so different from most of their fellow human beings that they actually like being pushed around and repressed and beaten and killed by thugs, whether dressed in military uniforms or wearing clerical garb. For our part, we wonder whether Muslims really do prefer being poor and hungry and ill housed to enjoying the comforts and conveniences that we in the West take so totally for granted….”

Gosh: I think that? Who knew? Not me. It would be interesting to see exactly who Podhoretz could cite as thinking that Muslims do “like being pushed around and repressed and beaten and killed by thugs.” Personally, I’m not aware of anyone. Likewise, I do not minimize the awfulness of Saddam’s regime, and so on and so forth. If Podhoretz suggests otherwise, that’s probably because he would rather debate caricatures than actual human beings. Either that, or he has no more imagination than a limpet. And that’s probably deeply unfair to limpets.

But wait! There’s more! Buruma again:

“Podhoretz is convinced that the savage murders and daily atrocities in Iraq are actually “a tribute to the enormous strides that had been made in democratizing and unifying the country under a workable federal system.” He wonders why men in the “so-called ‘insurgency'” would be shedding so much blood if they didn’t think the US mission in Iraq was working.”

Wow. Just wow. That defies comment.

I’ve been saving the worst for last. Buruma yet again:

“He describes the dispute between opponents of Bush’s war and its defenders as “no less bloody than the one being fought by our troops in the Middle East,” indeed as “nothing less than a kind of civil war.” I myself was opposed to the war, and do not always hold tender feelings for my intellectual opponents, but I hardly think of our differences as comparable to the burning of Atlanta or the battle of Fallujah. By the same token, Bush critics in academe are called “guerrillas-with-tenure,” which seems a grandiose description of what are on the whole rather harmless professors.”

Beinart adds more in the same vein:

“Critics of the Iraq war represent a “domestic insurgency” with a “life-and-death stake” in America’s defeat. And their dispute with the president’s supporters represents “a war of ideas on the home front.””

Um: no. Leaving aside the fact that I do not favor an American defeat at all (though I do favor admitting one once it occurs), I do not have a life or death stake in any outcome of the Iraq war, any more than Podhoretz does. Nor am I a guerilla of any kind, though I do have tenure. And if he seriously thinks that the disputes between supporters and opponents of the war is “no less bloody than the one being fought by our troops in the Middle East”, then he is — how to put this diplomatically? — completely and totally insane.

This is serious. According to the Washington Post (which puts these figures at the bottom of Iraq stories like this one), 3,748 American troops have been killed in Iraq, and 27,767 have been injured. 298 Allied troops have been killed, as have 159 civilian contractors. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have died, God alone knows how many have been injured, and millions have been driven from their homes. Soldiers and civilians in Iraq face death every day. Meanwhile, I am sitting on my bed with my computer in my lap, in my nice safe house in a nice safe neighborhood, listening to Purcell. There is a striking absence of mortars and gunfire, just as, tomorrow, there will be no IEDs on my route to work.

The very idea of saying that any dispute I am currently engaged in is “no less bloody than the one being fought by our troops in the Middle East” is obscene, and anyone who says this sort of thing should never be taken seriously again. Ever.

But of course we have to take him seriously, because he is one of Rudy Giuliani’s main foreign policy advisors. Think about it. Giuliani actually chose this lunatic to advise him. As Publius said, be very, very afraid.

PS: I’ve put some You-Tube clips on Giuliani’s 9/11 record below the fold. They’re worth watching.

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Be Afraid

by publius Peter Beinart reviews Norman Podhoretz and Michael Ledeen’s new books and isn’t exactly impressed. Re Ledeen, Beinart writes: Ledeen’s effort to lay virtually every attack by Muslims against Americans at Tehran’s feet takes him into rather bizarre territory. He says the 1998 bombings of the United States Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania “were … Read more

Thompson’s “Wesley Clark Moment”

by publius As Steve Benen helpfully documents, the Messiah Fred Thompson hasn’t exactly stormed out of the gate. Skipping debates for Leno, talking gibberish, staff turnover — all in all, a poor start. In all seriousness, this is a very dangerous time for the Messiah. Over the next few weeks, the risk is quite high … Read more

Priorities: Special Media Edition

by hilzoy Via Todd Gitlin, a startling article by Eric Boehlert on Alternet about news coverage of the war in Iraq. Long story short: there hasn’t been much: “Public polling indicates consumers are starved for news from Iraq, yet over the summer the mainstream media, and particularly television outlets such as CBS, steadfastly refused to … Read more

War As Attitude Adjustment

by hilzoy ThinkProgress (via TPM) has posted video of Lindsey Graham speaking at the American Enterprise Institute. Graham promises a big breakthrough in political reconciliation, coming “within the next weeks, not months.” I’ll believe that when I see it, and I will not regard it as noteworthy unless it includes not just promises to work … Read more

Uh-Oh

by hilzoy I very much hope that this is a false alarm: “A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable. Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows … Read more

Playing The Numbers

by hilzoy

From the Washington Post:

“The U.S. military’s claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.

Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration’s claim that its war strategy is working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures show a similar decrease.

Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers — most of which are classified — are often confusing and contradictory. “Let’s just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree,” Comptroller General David Walker told Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq.

Senior U.S. officers in Baghdad disputed the accuracy and conclusions of the largely negative GAO report, which they said had adopted a flawed counting methodology used by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Many of those conclusions were also reflected in last month’s pessimistic National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. “If a bullet went through the back of the head, it’s sectarian,” the official said. “If it went through the front, it’s criminal.””

Here are some of the things we know about these statistics: they don’t include Sunni-on-Sunni violence, or Shi’a-on-Shi’a violence. They don’t include car bombings. There are unexplained changes in the figures from one report to the next. They don’t seem to take seasonality into account.

More discussion below the fold.

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Every Word They Say Chagrins Us

by hilzoy Sidney Blumenthal in Salon: “Both the French intelligence service and the CIA paid Sabri hundreds of thousands of dollars (at least $200,000 in the case of the CIA) to give them documents on Saddam’s WMD programs. “The information detailed that Saddam may have wished to have a program, that his engineers had told … Read more

DHS: Still A Mess

by hilzoy From the Washington Post: “Hobbled by inadequate funding, unclear priorities, continuing reorganizations and the absence of an overarching strategy, the U.S. Homeland Security Department is failing to achieve its mission of preventing and responding to terrorist attacks or natural disasters, according to a comprehensive report by the Government Accountability Office. The highly critical … Read more

Quotes Of The Day

by hilzoy From ThinkProgress, a passage from Robert Draper’s new book on Bush: “Bush, for his part, was not disposed to second-guessing. Througout 2006, he read historical texts relating to Lincoln, Churchill, and Truman — three wartime leaders, the latter two of whom left office to something less than public acclaim. History would acquit him, … Read more

Riverbend Leaving

by hilzoy Riverbend is back. On leaving her home: “The last few hours in the house were a blur. It was time to go and I went from room to room saying goodbye to everything. I said goodbye to my desk- the one I’d used all through high school and college. I said goodbye to … Read more

Those Who Ignore the Past

by publius I caught a few minutes of a bloggingheads exchange between Megan McArdle and Dan Drezner. McArdle seemed frustrated that the liberal netroots doesn’t accept anything less than a groveling mea culpa on Iraq (she was also rightly frustrated at the unfair vehemence cast her way). The Iraq point is sort of true, but … Read more

Larry Craig Stars in Madison’s Revenge!

by publius So Larry Craig may go down swingin’ after all. If so, it’s a fascinating story on several different levels. But in the desperate attempt to say something original about all this, it’s worth noting some of the constitutional dimensions surrounding Craig’s potential de-resignation. More precisely, Craig’s de-resignation offers some interesting insights into our … Read more

Larry Craig: But Wait, There’s More!

by hilzoy From the NYT: “Senator Larry E. Craig of Idaho opened the door Tuesday to returning to the Senate, creating another twist in his unfolding political drama and raising the possibility of an ugly showdown with national Republican leaders. Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig, an Idaho Republican, said Tuesday night that Mr. … Read more

Janet Ashcroft: You Go, Girl!

by hilzoy From the NYT’s preview of Jack Goldsmith’s forthcoming book: “As he recalled it to me, Goldsmith received a call in the evening from his deputy, Philbin, telling him to go to the George Washington University Hospital immediately, since Gonzales and Card were on the way there. Goldsmith raced to the hospital, double-parked outside … Read more

Politics by Other Means

by G’Kar Via hilzoy I spotted this article discussing the ongoing ethnic segregation of Baghdad. For those who haven’t been following the story, and I’ll admit I was not aware of how widespread the problem is, Shiites have been securing large portions of Baghdad for themselves, displacing and murdering Sunnis in wholesale lots. In fact, … Read more

Quote Of The Day

by hilzoy In the Washington Post, a Republican pollster discusses the GOP’s chances of retaking the Senate in 2008: “”It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker,” said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.” Heh. … Read more

A Clarifying Month

by Charles First off, I’m getting the graphical information from Engram here and here, and the numbers are based on the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count which, from what I’ve seen, has the best available data.  In the last three months, we’ve been at full manpower and our operations have been highly kinetic.  Despite more troops … Read more

Double Standards

by hilzoy

Scott Lemieux is right: this is a good post about Larry Craig’s arrest:

“By the cop’s own admission, he (the cop) “pumped his foot slowly up and down in response.” In other words, Craig asked for sex using an arcane code extremely unlikely to “alarm, anger, or disturb” — according to the the equally arcane code defining disorderly conduct in Minnesota — an uninitiated fellow-lavator, and the cop knew what it meant and said yes.

Where’s the victim?

What I find more astonishing is the definition of “disorderly conduct.” By this reckoning, ten years and thirty pounds ago, I had disorderly conduct foisted upon me approximately…let’s see…15,923 times.

Per week.

Give or take.

But, even if they’re unwanted advances, that’s the natural order of things, right? Whereas men have to be protected from the unwanted advances of men at all costs (why? because they’re worried they just might succumb to a particularly persuasive piece of foot telegraphy?).

Given the constant, daily harassment women endure (come on now, don’t tune out; stay with me, here) — harassment that makes us compress our daily activities into daylight hours, that circumscribes where we go, who we go with, and even what we wear; intrusive harassment, ruin-your-day, make-you-feel-powerless/angry/depressed harassment — the overzealous prosecution of the toe-tapper really pisses me off. It’s like those sophomore discussions one has of human trafficking, in which someone invariably says “but what about the men?”, and then the rest of the discussion, in some form or another, is overwhelmingly preoccupied with those minority cases. Heaven forfend we don’t keep men front and center, even if it makes lousy Bayesians of us all.

Look: if there’d been groping, a physical risk, or even just a persistent advance in the face of a single “no” (which doesn’t seem to have ever been uttered), I’d be supportive regardless of the gender base-rates involved. But “he tapped his foot and looked at me funny”? Please! Men! Grow a pair!”

Honestly: I loathe sexual harassment. Leaving aside the attempted rapes on the one hand and all the myriad gropings and propositions on the other, I have been stalked twice, asked by a professor (now dead) whose class I was enrolled in to spend the summer with him, had a pitcher of beer poured over my head for saying no, and so on and so forth. I even got a buzz cut once — 1/4″ long hair, max — because some jerk grabbed my breasts, and when I pulled away he started screaming obscenities at me. I was writing a travel guide at the time, so going to restaurants and discos alone was part of my job, and since I couldn’t figure out how to obtain a nun’s habit, cutting all my hair off seemed like the best way to make the levels of sexual harassment drop to remotely bearable levels.

(I’m not kidding. I did this. I figured that in the split second when I was walking past someone, he would be thinking: “what on earth is that?“, rather than grabbing me. It worked. Plus, ever since I since I watched the original Star Trek, I had wondered what I would look like with no hair. Now I knew.)

I only called the police once — see “attempted rape”, above — and the charming officer who responded said, and I quote: “why don’t you just head down to the beach tomorrow in a nice bikini and see if he tries again?” And much as I loathed all the rest of the sexual harassment I’ve encountered, I don’t really see that most of it — the cases in which I was not touched, at least — should be illegal, as opposed to merely vile.

If it were illegal, however, I would have thought that since women are far more likely to receive unwanted advances than men, the police should focus a bit more attention on protecting us.

And one more thing:

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Sovereignty: Unclear On The Concept

by hilzoy President Bush, June 28, 2004: “Earlier today, 15 months after the liberation of Iraq, and two days ahead of schedule, the world witnessed the arrival of a free and sovereign Iraqi government. Iraqi officials informed us that they are ready to assume power, and Prime Minister Allawi believes that making this transition now … Read more

The Overrated Gentleman from Virginia

by publius I will not be joining the celebration of John Warner this week. In fact, he may be my least favorite Senator. Warner — and Senators like him — are actually far more harmful to progressive politics (and sane policy) than more certifiably extreme people like Coburn and Inhofe. That’s why I’d take Coburn … Read more

Iraq: Refugees

by hilzoy From the United Nations High Commission on Refugees: “The humanitarian situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate with the number of displaced Iraqis, both inside and outside the country, rising. Now, an estimated 4.2 million Iraqis are have been uprooted from their homes, with the monthly rate of displacement climbing to over 60,000 people … Read more

Zimbabwe: When Price Controls Fail…

by hilzoy When last we checked in on the slow-motion disaster that is Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe had decided to impose price controls. Predictably, this just caused shops to become empty: when people cannot sell at a profit, they tend not to sell at all. According to the Zimbabwe Independent: “Business lost over $40 trillion since … Read more