Kyrgyz Update: Out of the Frying Pan, Into the Fire

By Edward

UPDATE: Protestors storm presidential palace. Akayev is in hiding (OK, so he’s reportedly in Russia now). Opposition takes over TV station. Jailed opposition leader freed. It’s a full-fledged revolution.

The ray of hope in all this is that the opposition leader set free, Felix Kulov, might just be the person to unite the protesters. Kulov, who had been arrested on what his supporters called politically motivated embezellment charges after he announced his intentions to run against Akayev for the presidency, has the personal story most frustrated Kyrgyz folks can probably relate to. At the moment, though, it’s a waiting game.

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As I predicted a few days ago, the protests in Kyrgyzstan have reached the capital city, Bishkek, and President Akayev is threatening to use force:

Riot police have broken up a protest in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek, the first since anti-government demonstrations swept the country’s south. Up to 200 people gathered in Bishkek’s main square, but police broke up the rally before it could get going.

Police reportedly hit some of the crowd with sticks and arrested 10 organisers.

It is not clear how closly the event was linked to protests in the south, where the cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad are under effective opposition control.

The new Kyrgyz Interior Minister, Keneshbek Dushebayev, warned protesters in the south that the authorities could use force to restore order.

"The law gives us every right to take action, including by using physical force, special means and firearms," he was quoted as saying.

Despite the success of similar protests in Georgia and Ukraine, however, there are reasons to be worried about the current state of things in Kyrgyzstan. As I noted before, the opposition is not unified:

In most of Central Asia, however, the absence of a cohesive opposition group is encouraging regionalism and chaos, said political activist Alymkulov Berdi, who protested when his candidate was disqualified from Kyrgyzstan’s February elections.

"Today all we have are regional leaders and that is a dangerous situation because people are frustrated and furious but they don’t have one leader to guide them," Berdi said.

And the threat I didn’t want to tempt fate by naming before is now looking more real as well: this leadership vacuum has not gone unnoticed by Islamists. Back in 2000, Kyrgyzstan stood strong against an attempt to turn them into the next Taliban haven:

The Kyrgyz Defense Ministry said on Monday its troops repelled an attack by about 60 Islamic rebels who tried to cross from neighboring Tajikistan. Officials said Kyrgyz border guards fought the insurgents throughout the night before the gunmen retreated towards the southern border. The clash is said to have taken place at Dzheluu-Suu in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region, a few miles from Tajikistan.

There has been a series of attacks this month on both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan blamed by them on Islamic militants opposed to secular government. The fighters are thought to be from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, who aim to establish an Islamic state in the Fergana Valley which straddles the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The rebels are alleged to have been trained in Afghanistan.

But that was before the opposition got inspired by events in their fellow former Soviet Republics. Now, with unemployment near 50% in the South (where most of the protests are happening), the call to revolution that’s spreading, and the very human frustration that comes from not seeing things get better fast enough, young Kyrgyz folks are open to new ideas. Unfortunately, there are some opportunists waiting to supply them:

Hizb ut-Tahrir, or the Party of Liberation, has a following among the young in Central Asia. It has called for Islamic rule to replace secular governments and unite the Muslim world. And its pamphlets criticize U.S. bases established in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to support the war on terror.

A senior Western diplomat in Tajikistan confirmed that Hizb ut-Tahrir’s influence is growing across the region, particularly among the young who are looking for alternatives to what they perceive as corrupt, totalitarian regimes with links to the Soviet past.

The United States has not declared Hizb ut-Tahrir a terrorist organization because it does not advocate violence, but the diplomat said some of its literature is virulently anti-American and anti-Semitic and could inspire violence.

Leaders across Central Asia have banned Hizb ut-Tahrir. Kyrgyz security authorities have accused the group of having links with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is allied to al-Qaida and operates in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Kyrgyz government has also warned of cooperation between Hizb ut-Tahrir and Uighur separatists in China, but has not provided evidence. Russia has accused Hizb ut-Tahrir of involvement in breakaway Chechnya (news – web sites).

The south of Kyrgyzstan is where Hizb ut-Tahrir is strongest, presidential spokesman Seghizbayev told the AP. He said the group blames the government for every problem and makes promises it cannot fulfill.

Hizb ut-Tahrir has become more politically active. In Jalal-Abad, the scene of some of the fiercest anti-government protests, the group collected 20,000 signatures on a petition calling for more Islamic instruction in schools and segregation of the sexes. T

he petition, circulated in November, also demanded state sponsorship of Muslim schools and restrictions on the sale of pornography. Candidates who espoused a like-minded philosophy got support from Hizb ut-Tahrir members.

Askarov Azimjan, a human rights activist whose office in southern Kyrgyzstan is partially funded by Freedom House, says Hizb ut-Tahrir has emerged as an alternative for residents frustrated by corruption.

"Most ordinary people I think support them now because they feel that in a democratic society it is difficult to get anything done without corruption. People believe that if the government was religious the situation would change," he said from Bazar Korgon, about 20 miles from Jalal-Abad.

"Even high school students know exactly how much they will have to pay if they want to get a job in the police station," he added. "If Hizb ut-Tahrir registered as a political party it would get a lot of support. But the government won’t allow them to register. They are afraid."

Reportedly, one of the promises the most radical Islamists are making is that they’ll order the US to leave its Manas airport base near Bishkek. It may be time for the US to start encouraging a coalition among the non-radical opposition and lend them our very generous support.