Month: February 2005

by Charles

It’s fun watching dictators squirm.  The assassination of Rafik Hariri is turning out to be one of Bashar Assad’s biggest miscalculations in his short career as Syrian strongman.  The evidence of course isn’t all in, but clearly the motivation for the assassination lies with the Syrian government.  They thought they could get away with it.

In a quasi peace offering yesterday, Assad offered up Saddam’s half-brother and 29 other Iraqi Baathists to the Iraqi government.  Apparently the group was arrested over the weekend, but the real question is how long Assad allowed these Iraqis to freely operate within Syrian borders.  I suspect Assad has let this happen since April 2003.  This one-off gesture is nowhere near good enough.  Syria sponsors and harbors terrorists and terrorist groups, they provide aid and comfort to Iraqi "insurgents", they keep Lebanon under lock and key, and they are responsible for attempting to scuttle the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.  From the Washington Post:

Palestinian and Israeli security forces arrested seven Palestinians on Saturday in connection with a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv the night before, while leaders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Syria asserted responsibility for the attack.

Emphasis mine.  The international lens on Assad and Lebanon is having its effect.  Publius Pundit is reporting on protests by the Lebanese opposition, even though the government instituted a ban on such activities.  Assad would only make it worse if he applied Hama Rules to these protests, especially now that the number protesting approached 200,000.  In effect, Assad is losing control of Lebanon, and it’s about time.  The Caveman in Beirut is also covering these historic events.  Importantly, Lebanese business leaders are also in full support:

Leaders of Lebanon’s banking, industrial and commercial sectors said they would shut down next Monday to demand the country’s pro-Syrian government resign and that a "neutral" one replace it.

The strike would coincide with an expected vote of confidence in parliament, two weeks after the murder of former premier Rafiq Hariri in a bomb blast for which the opposition has pinned blame on the government and its Syrian backers.

[Update:  The snowball is gathering speed.  CNN has just reported that pro-Syrian Lebanese prime minister Karami has just resigned and his government has collapsed.]

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If we were to conjure up a scorecard on the progress of freedom and the resistance to tyranny in the last twelve months, there are many nations we can put in the plus column.

Uzbekistan

Waving orange scarves and banners — the colors of Ukraine’s revolution — dozens of Uzbeks demonstrated in the capital Tashkent last week over the demolition of their homes to make way for border fencing.  The protest reportedly compelled the autocratic government of Islam Karimov, widely condemned for human-rights abuses, to pay compensation.

Kyrgyzstan

In Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, hundreds of pro-democracy activists rallied on Saturday to demand that upcoming parliamentary elections be free and fair.  Registan is reporting favorably on the democratic direction this country is moving toward.

Moldova

From Kyrgyzstan on the Chinese border to Moldova, where Europe’s only ruling Communist Party faces elections next month, opposition parties are eagerly studying Georgia’s "Rose Revolution" and Ukraine’s "Orange Revolution," which led to the triumph of pro-democracy forces.

Lebanon

Over by the Martyr’s Monument, Lebanese students have built a little tent city and are vowing to stay until Syria’s 15,000 troops withdraw. They talk like characters in "Les Miserables," but their revolutionary bravado is the sort of force that can change history. "We have nothing to lose anymore. We want freedom or death," says Indra Hage, a young Lebanese Christian. "We’re going to stay here, even if soldiers attack us," says Hadi Abi Almouna, a Druze Muslim. "Freedom needs sacrifices, and we are ready to give them." Over by the Martyr’s Monument, Lebanese students have built a little tent city and are vowing to stay until Syria’s 15,000 troops withdraw. They talk like characters in "Les Miserables," but their revolutionary bravado is the sort of force that can change history. "We have nothing to lose anymore. We want freedom or death," says Indra Hage, a young Lebanese Christian. "We’re going to stay here, even if soldiers attack us," says Hadi Abi Almouna, a Druze Muslim. "Freedom needs sacrifices, and we are ready to give them."

Brave words, in a country where dissent has often meant death. "It is the beginning of a new Arab revolution," argues Samir Franjieh, one of the organizers of the opposition. "It’s the first time a whole Arab society is seeking change — Christians and Muslims, men and women, rich and poor."

While the assassination of Rafik Hariri was a major blow to the Lebanese independence movement, Druze Muslim leader Walid Jumblatt has had enough and he is emerging as a leading opposition voice.  The world will be watching the elections in May, and I expect that Bashar Assad will keep a low profile.

[Update:  Did the pressure brought to bear on Syria cause Assad to turn in Saddam’s half-brother and 29 other Iraqi Baathists to the Iraqi authorities?  I believe so.]

Egypt
These boots are made for walkin’.  Condi Rice canceled a trip to Egypt because of the arrest of an opposition politician, and Hosni Mubarak is feeling the heat for his autocratic rule, from within and outside Egyptian boundaries.  Just yesterday:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday ordered a revision of the country’s election laws and said multiple candidates could run in the nation’s presidential elections, a scenario Mubarak hasn’t faced since taking power in 1981.

The surprise announcement, a response to critics’ calls for political reform, comes shortly after historic elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories, balloting that brought a taste of democracy to the region. It also comes amid a sharp dispute with the United States over Egypt’s arrest of one of the strongest proponents of multi-candidate elections.

"The election of a president will be through direct, secret balloting, giving the chance for political parties to run for the presidential elections and providing guarantees that allow more than one candidate for the people to choose among them with their own will," Mubarak said in an address broadcast live on Egyptian television.

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by Edward _

Yes, one could argue that that horse is all but glue at this point, but news out today asks us to examine again whether invading Iraq has made us less safe. It’s not only a matter of whether we have enough troops to fight other enemies (you know, ones that actually have WMD); apparently now it’s a matter of whether we can get enough troops to even maintain current needs:

The Iraq war’s dampening effect on recruiting has led to a plan by the Marine Corps to put hundreds of additional recruiters on the streets over the next several months and offer new re-enlistment bonuses of up to $35,000, military officials said Thursday.

Recruiters and other military officials say the "Falluja effect" – a steady drumbeat of military casualties from Iraq, punctuated by graphic televised images of urban combat – is searing an image into the public eye that Marine officers say is difficult to overcome.

The Marines make up about 21 percent of the 150,000 military personnel in Iraq now but have suffered 31 percent of the military deaths there, according to Pentagon statistics.

The Army and other services have often increased the number of recruiters and dangled incentives to bolster their enlistment efforts in lean years. But for the Marines, steps of this magnitude, including the largest one-time increase in recruiters in recent memory, are unheard of in a service whose macho image has historically been a magnet for young people seeking adventure and danger in a military career.

Gen. Michael W. Hagee, the Marine Corps commandant, predicted on Thursday that the Marines would achieve their overall recruiting goal for this fiscal year, even after the service missed its monthly quota in January, the first such lapse in nearly a decade. But General Hagee indicated that recruiters were facing some of toughest conditions they have ever faced, starting in the homes of their prized recruits.

"What the recruiters are telling us is that they have to spend more time with the parents," General Hagee said. "Parents have influence, and rightly so, on the decision these young men and young women are going to make. They’re saying, ‘It’s not maybe a bad idea to join the Marine Corps, but why don’t you consider it a year from now, or two years from now; let’s think about this.’ "

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by Edward _

Via Kos

Preface: There’s enough confusion about where this was originally published to make me question whether a bit of grape vine reporting has altered the full story. However, there’s more than enough highly disturbing about it (including photos) to warrant discussion.
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Liminal, on his anti-war blog Shlonkom Bakazay? (whose tag line is "an iraqi-american ashamed, in denial"), offers some disturbing images and commentary by a writer named "locomono" whose original post is apparently no longer available (or is for members only).

In a nutshell, locomono attended a Father-Son function at their local Baptist Church in Lexington, Kentucky, and the militaristic nature of the presentation disturbed him enough he began taking photos after a film was shown:

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So today Paul Krugman predicted that the Administration would soon conjure up some new national security crisis, like it always does when Bush can’t get what he wants done domestically. No, the terror alert wasn’t raised to orange just yet, but there is sensation afoot to distract us from the drudgery of personal accounts and all that, just like Paul predicted:

The campaign against Social Security is going so badly that longtime critics of President Bush, accustomed to seeing their efforts to point out flaws in administration initiatives brushed aside, are pinching themselves. But they shouldn’t relax: if the past is any guide, the Bush administration will soon change the subject back to national security.

And, well, right on cue comes this news:

A Virginia man has been charged with plotting with Middle East terrorists to assassinate President Bush, either by shooting him on the street or by detonating a car bomb, the Justice Department said today.

The department said that the suspect, Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, had conspired with terrorists in Saudi Arabia, with whom he lived there from September 2002 to June 2003, and that he had obtained a religious blessing from a co-conspirator to carry out the killing.

Of course, it’s possible that Ali was indeed plotting to kill the president, but considering he’s been arrested and there’s likely not much you can do yourself to affect his trial, you may wish to spend your time focused on important domestic issues like Social Security reform. If so, here’s a handy, bite-sized, disposable summary of the key elements of the unfolding drama:

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The LA Times provides a unique angle to the "insurgency" taking place in Iraq.

Iraq’s insurgency has long targeted local police, government leaders and national guardsmen as a means of destabilizing the nascent democracy, but now guerrillas have taken aim at a far more unlikely line of work.

In what some describe as a Taliban-like effort to impose a militant Islamic aesthetic, extremists have been warning Iraqi barbers not to violate strict Islamic teachings by trimming or removing men’s beards. Giving Western-style haircuts or removing hair in an "effeminate" manner, they say, are crimes punishable by death.

Would it not be fair to say that those who mark barbers for death are not "guerillas" but terrorists?  Speaking of extremism, I was rummaging around the Internet and found this dated but relevant piece from Khaled Abou El Fadl from the UCLA School of Law.  Fadl discussed the principles of war and jihad developed by the "classical jurists" of the 11th century, which are actually quite humane:

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