Orin Kerr Gets It

Over at Le Conspiracy d’Volokhs, Orin Kerr writes: The CBS memos deserve front page coverage- for a day, maybe two. They deserve some blog posts — maybe two, maybe three. But my sense is that something different is happening. My sense is that bloggers are embracing Memogate to the exclusion of other things, as if … Read more

Rhetoric and Hope

I’ve been refereeing posts to weed out anti-Muslim messages on the blogosphere for what feels likes centuries now. Most folks who read my comments already know my primary motivation for such relentless defense (my partner is Muslim), but I’ve never stopped to think much about why (other than presumed fear) many were so quick to … Read more

Iraqi Civil War

It may be too strongly worded to call what is going on in Iraq a ‘civil war’. But while using that term, Harry has an excellent discussion of what is going on in Iraq at a strategic level. I strongly encourage you to read it all, but since I know some of you won’t, here … Read more

OK, I Give Up

This will be my sole substantive post on Rathergate: Former CIA Boss Tenet Calls CBS Memos ‘Slam Dunk’ From Scrappleface.

The Diaper Wars

That sound you heard, just now, was my jaw falling from my skull and drop-drop-dropping onto the floor after finishing Stephen Moore’s recent NRO article on Bush’s anti-trust policy. “Extraordinarily underwhelming” doesn’t begin to do justice as a desciption. (And, so we’re clear, I disfavor most forms of antitrust regulation; i.e., I’m putatively on Moore’s “side.”) The key passage, from which the rest of Moore’s analysis flows, is the following:

Antitrust actions may have made sense during the era of Theodore Roosevelt, when firms like Standard Oil could truly monopolize local markets. But in the 21st century, where markets are global, the idea that firms can gouge consumers on prices is as antiquated as the stage coach. Consumers are more fickle and cost-conscious than ever before. If prices get out of line in any market where there are no barriers to entry, competitors swoop in and lower costs so that monopoly rents disappear.

(Emphasis added.) The problem with this paragraph (and the highlighted sentence in particular) is not merely that it betrays a profound misunderstanding of the practicalities of “entry barriers” — though it does — but that it also demonstrates no appreciable concern for the realities of the present-day marketplace. This is the kind of passage a sociology major might write, between bong hits, and having learned all of his economic theory from Krugman’s New York Times columns. (‘Tis true that Krugman is an economic genius, but the evidence for it is of a super-Times-ular nature.)

As a threshold matter, there is no such thing as a market “where there are no barriers to entry.” Every market has entry barriers. Even with the most ephemeral or fungible products, you have to hire someone to create it, build some sort of office (or telecommuting) environment, pay for start up marketing, etc. Indeed, even if these entry costs did not exist (and they always do), entry into a new market at a minimum costs the sum of your next best opportunity. (Tom, in comments, notes that the economic (as opposed to actual) costs of entry may still be zero if the next best opportunity is not as good as the proposed market-entry; he’s right, of course, and my phrasing of this sentence is confusing. For the moment, consider it withdrawn.)

So Moore is simply silly on this first point. But Moore’s also wrong on a second, admittedly more sophisticated point. The very markets that Moore highlights as having small or nonexistent entry barriers — software companies — in fact usually have fairly high entry barriers. (Here, Yglesias’s analysis of Moore’s article also stumbles.) Meet the modern patent regime: wherein even “clearly” invalid patents have value.

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Florida Tennis

And the Democrats smash back the Republican’s “hurricane” lob. Wow, what a shot! I didn’t think they’d get to that one in time, but they did, and now the Republicans are scrambling back, way back behind the baseline …. to be continued…. A Florida judge ordered county elections officials on Wednesday to issue absentee ballots … Read more

Do We Want an American Aristocracy?

Two stories came out today that are individually interesting, but even more so in combination. The first is a New York Times editorial on the tax plans underlying Bush’s plan for an ‘Ownership Society’: “When President Bush talks about an “ownership society,” hold on to your wallet. The slogan, like “compassionate conservative” before it, is … Read more

Let’s Revist the Topic of Liberal Media Bias

Today, all I can say is wow! From ABCNews: Two of the document experts hired by CBS News say the network ignored concerns they raised prior to the broadcast of a report citing documents that questioned George W. Bush’s service in the National Guard during the Vietnam War. … Emily Will, a veteran document examiner … Read more

And your Mini Cooper can ride right under it

Oil’s only about $45/barrel and, if things continue the way they are in Iraq, most likely going higher, so now does seem like a good time to introduce a passenger vehicle that dwarfs the Hummer, doesn’t it? Introducing, the CXT: General Motors Corp.’s uber-sport utility, the Hummer, has been the biggest and baddest passenger truck … Read more

Sow’s ears, Silk purses, et cetera

I look at Putin’s power grab in Russia, and I conclude that Bush’s handling of Russia has borne sickly fruit, and Bush’s proposed pull-out from Europe may be premature. The normally far-brighter-than-I Professor Bainbridge looks at Putin’s power grab, and decides to shadow-box the far left. Eh, whatever. Just don’t try selling that sow’s ear … Read more

Three. Trillion. Dollars.

From the Washington Post: The expansive agenda President Bush laid out at the Republican National Convention was missing a price tag, but administration figures show the total is likely to be well in excess of $3 trillion over a decade. …. Bush’s pledge to make permanent his tax cuts, which are set to expire at … Read more

More Important Things in Life, Part I

Spent half the night dreaming of “brilliant” metaphors for political situations, and woke up convinced that I’m way too overworked about all of this stuff. There are political issues I’m working on for future posts, but here I want to discuss something much more important: pinewood derbys. Pierogi, a gallery in Brooklyn, is celebrating its … Read more

Putin and Civil Rights

Russia provides a troubling example. This is what it really looks like when a country’s leader decides to use terrorism as an excuse to destroy liberty and democratic government. Putin is using the need for a response against terrorism as an excuse to revamp the structure of local government, and move from direct election of … Read more

Oh No, Not Again…

This via dKos: “Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader’s name can appear on Florida ballots for the election, despite a court order to the contrary, Florida’s elections chief told officials on Monday in a move that could help President Bush in the key swing state. The Florida Democratic Party reacted with outrage, calling the move “blatant … Read more

Why I will Not Vote For Bush #2c: Nuclear Nonproliferation

Osama bin Laden thinks that acquiring nuclear weapons is a religious duty. He has been trying to get them since 1993. Were he to acquire a nuclear weapon and detonate it in, say, Times Square on a weekday, somewhere around a million people would die, and a huge chunk of Manhattan would be completely destroyed. It is hard to imagine a worse development in the War on Terror than bin Laden getting a nuclear weapon.

The good news is that George W. Bush recognizes the gravity of this threat. In December 2001, for instance, he called the possibility that terrorists might gain weapons of mass destruction “the great threat to civilization.” The bad news is that he has not acted on this recognition. He did, of course, invade Iraq, where it turned out that there were no weapons of mass destruction. But even before the invasion, when many people (myself included) believed that Iraq did have WMD, most people did not believe that Iraq had the most dangerous weapons of all: nuclear weapons. There were, however, many other ways in which we knew that terrorists might be able to obtain nuclear weapons and/or fissile material. It would seem obvious, after 9/11, that dealing with these ought to be among our top priorities. Oddly enough, however, they were not. And the result is that we are considerably less safe now than we might have been.

While there is a broad consensus that we need to try to block every step on the path terrorists would need to follow in order to acquire nuclear weapons, transport them to this country, and detonate them, the most difficult step on this path seems to be the acquisition of fissile materials — highly enriched uranium or plutonium. I will therefore focus on how we have tried to stop terrorists from getting these materials in several of the most important areas.

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Cole: al Qaeda ahead of US in Overall Goals

Juan Cole makes a compelling case that bin Laden (or AQ, if you think he’s dead) is further along in his long-term goals than the US in this conflict, and that the US has unwittingly helped him get there. Best bits:

Al-Qaeda has succeeded in several of its main goals. It had been trying to convince Muslims that the United States wanted to invade Muslim lands, humiliate Muslim men, and rape Muslim women. Most Muslims found this charge hard to accept. The Bush administration’s Iraq invasion, along with the Abu Ghuraib prison torture scandal, was perceived by many Muslims to validate Bin Laden’s wisdom and foresightedness.

After the Iraq War, Bin Laden is more popular than George W. Bush even in a significantly secular Muslim country such as Turkey. This is a bizarre finding, a weird turn of events. Turks didn’t start out with such an attitude. It grew up in reaction against US policies.

It remains to be seen whether the US will be forced out of Iraq the way it was forced out of Iran in 1979. If so, as al-Zawahiri says, that will be a huge victory. A recent opinion poll did find that over 80 percent of Iraqis want an Islamic state. If Iraq goes Islamist, that will be the biggest victory the movement has had since the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan. An Islamist Iraq might well be able ultimately to form a joint state with Syria, starting the process of the formation of the Islamic superstate of which Bin Laden dreams.

If the Muslim world can find a way to combine the sophisticated intellectuals and engineers of Damascus and Cairo with the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf, it could well emerge as a 21st century superpower.

Bin Laden’s dream of a united Muslim state under a revived caliphate may well be impossible to accomplish. But with the secular Baath gone, it could be one step closer to reality. If you add to the equation the generalized hatred for US policies (both against the Palestinians and in Iraq) among Muslims, that is a major step forward for al-Qaeda. In Saudi Arabia, al-Qaeda has emerged as a dissident political party. Before it had just been a small group of Bin Laden’s personal acolytes in Afghanistan and a handful of other countries.

Although the United States and its Pakistani ally have captured significant numbers of al-Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a whole new generation of angry young Muslim men has been produced. Al-Qaeda has moved from being a concrete cell-based terrorist organization to being an ideal and a model, for small local groups in Casablanca, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and elsewhere.

The US is not winning the war on terror. Al-Qaeda also has by no means won. But across a whole range of objectives, al-Qaeda has accomplished more of its goals than the US has of its.

Invading Iraq is still seen by many folks as having always been a necessary part of the conflict (I refuse to call it a “war on terror” any more). I didn’t see it before the invasion and now see it even less. At least before the conflict, I suspected Bush had a better plan to win the peace in Iraq than he obviously had.

I continue to be convinced the invasion of Iraq was a long-standing Neocon plan with no connection to terrorism before 9/11 and nothing but rhetoric connecting it to terrorism after 9/11…until, of course, we screwed things up so royally. Now, ironically, it’s totally connected to terrorism, just not in a way that serves our best interests.

merci Ondine

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Shut up, Stay Scared, and Shop

I got a C in chemistry in high school, but I’m not convinced it was my fault. I was otherwise a “straight A” student, more or less, but that chemistry class and me (I?) were not meant for each other. I recalled asking the instructor for a detailed explanation of something that just didn’t make sense to me after class one time, and she—already more than a little frustrated with me—said I would just have to accept some things on faith for the time being until we learned other things later that would make it all clear. She knew my question was valid, but she couldn’t answer it because of the way she was teaching the class, so she asked me to suspend my need to know until a later point.

My brain simply doesn’t work that way. It stops and sits down until it has the answer it wants, like a five year old at the edge of the toy section of a department store.

I know we’ve been all over this WOT thing over the past three years, but dang it, I still can’t get it through my thick skull. And my “resistance” only got worse as I watched the mindlessly Spartan applause to declarations of American will at the conventions (mostly at the RNC, though…in fact, most of the time I watched the RNC, I had this sense that all these folks were privy to [and cheering for] some “Plan” I didn’t know anything about.). And Cheney’s boogeyman rountine last week didn’t clarify anything for me either…so I’m at it once more:

Ask five different people “What is the War on Terror” (i.e., what is our plan, what are our goals) and you’ll get five different, very fuzzy answers.

They’ll range from “we’re hunting down the members of al Qaeda” to “we’re spreading democracy in the Middle East” to “we’re fighting radical Islamism” to “we’re spreading our military throughout the ME to help prevent WMD from being developed there and/or shipped out of there, as well as to have faster access to terrorists groups there” to “we’re doing all of these things.”

Do these things add up to a “war” though?

  • Hunting down members of al Qaeda: this is a police action.
  • Spreading democracy: this is social engineering.
  • Fighting radical Islamism: this is, well, I have no freaking idea what this is actually, but it sounds awfully close to proselytizing to me.
  • Spreading our military throughout the ME: this is imperialism.

This last item is the only action that’s necessarily a war-associated activity, and since we won’t admit to wanting to keep our troops there indefinitely, that doesn’t really define the WOT either.

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Precious Bodily Fluids: Round up

Tacitus‘s and Bird Dog‘s reservations regarding our “strategy” in Fallujah are echoed by the outgoing U.S. Marine Corps general in charge of western Iraq: “When you order elements of a Marine division to attack a city, you really need to understand what the consequences of that are going to be and not perhaps vacillate in … Read more

Kaboom

Whew, just when I was worried that things were going to be boring, a mushroom cloud appears of North Korea. We are being assured that this wasn’t a nuclear weapons test for whatever that is worth. But it obviously was not just an accident either. It took place on the anniversary of North Korea’s founding. … Read more

Why No Posts?

Consider this an open thread. It’s been a wonderful day here in Baltimore: I have been out doing Kerry work and registering voters. Now that I’m back, I thought I’d check in, and lo! no new posts. I know why I haven’t posted anything in a bit — besides the Kerry stuff and, you know, … Read more

Why Should Conservatives Vote For Bush?

In the comments to his last post, Edward asks whether any conservatives want to defend him on the deficit. Like a writer in Salon today, I am curious about why conservatives want to defend him, period. I used to associate conservatives with the following views: * Fiscal discipline. Obviously, Bush’s record on this score would … Read more

The Faithless Trickery of Low Expectations

UPDATE: Even those he calls his “base” are getting nervous now: Fiscal Conservatives Challenge Bush: But even fiscal conservatives, traditionally allied with the Republican White House, were skeptical of Bush’s plans. “While it’s true that Kerry hasn’t provided a detailed plan, neither has the president,” said Heritage Foundation budget analyst Brian Riedl. William Niskanen, chairman … Read more

Forged Anti-Bush Documents and Media Responsibility

I can’t add anything definitive on the possibility that CBS News has torpedoed its credibility by showcasing forged documents in a suspiciously partisan fashion. The factual issues are dealt with quite well at Powerline, here, here and here as well as mainstream media sources, here, here and here. Especially interesting is this from the family … Read more

Two thougts.

1. The Shins’ latest is a good hear. Incidently, does anyone have any good indy hip-hop? At present, my tastes have mellowed to jazz-hop — yet, I’m stuck somewhere in the mid-90s. (And please don’t suggest Jurrasic 5; they try to hard for my liking.)* 2. Is there any desire among the the readership to … Read more

Is Joe Lieberman Still Available?

I want a President who finishes what he starts. (The linked CSIS Report on Iraq is required reading, y’all. Via Sullivan.)

I hate to be shrill on this, and I hate all the more for Obsidian Wings to turn (further) to the left as the election approaches. I am, after all, the putative moderate on this site, and I have an interest in keeping this site (and its commentators) suitably moder-iffic. But, enough is enough. What the Hell does a guy have to do to get fired in this town?

(Yglesias, excerpted and embellished upon by our own Hilzoy, provides the rest of the answer.)

So, Lieberman — aka the Big Lieb, aka the Ninja, aka Joey from the CT — is still running, right? Whew, that’s a relief. I was afraid I was gonna have to vote for some warmed-over, two-faced, flip-floppin’ peacenik — like Kerry.

(Even Dean is preferrable. You reading this, Katherine?*)

von

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Kerry: A True World Leader

It’s often said that the President of the United States is the “Leader of the Free World,” and although non-US citizens don’t get a vote in our national elections, who we choose to run the US will in many ways impact their lives. If the rest of the world were to be given a say … Read more

Vote Bush/Cheney or Die!

So it comes down to this. If we elect John Kerry as President, the terrorists will be so (what?)—encouraged that we’re still foolish enough to believe in democracy(?)—that they’ll re-attack the United States in some devastating fashion. Re-electing Bush is the only way to save ourselves. The terrorists would never dare attack us with Bush … Read more

The Problem with Education Reforms

Via JoanneJacobs I see this very insightful post on education reform. The key paragraphs are: It turns out, according to the Times, that the law’s system for labeling schools failing (based as it is on the performance of various subgroups at each school) has managed to place thousands of schools in middle-class neighborhoods on “failing” … Read more

Obligatory 60 Minutes Thread

So now we see evidence that Bush not only failed to take his flight physical, thereby throwing away $1million (in 1970 dollars) that had been invested in his training; he disobeyed a direct order to show up for it, and was suspended from flying not just for failing to take the physical, but for failing … Read more

No Moderate Muslims?

Are you sure that you’re looking hard enough? (Via Constant Reader Rilkefan and Eugene Volokh.) No, we’re not there yet — as Sebastian notes in these very (virtual) pages. But there’s cause for hope. There is yet cause for hope.

What Our Government Does In Our Name

From Knight-Ridder: “It was standard operating procedure for the Army to hold some detainees in secret in Afghanistan for up to several months without reporting them to the International Committee of the Red Cross, according to military officers familiar with the policy. A similar practice was later used at Iraq’s Abu Ghraib prison, where the … Read more