A week was indeed generous of me. There’s a showdown coming, and time favors our adversaries:
On Monday, as American authorities issued an arrest warrant for Moktada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric who set off the most serious insurrection so far in Iraq, his supporters were fortifying the mosque here with heavy weaponry, bracing for an American assault.
Mr. Sadr, rejecting surrender, has barricaded himself inside the golden brick walls. His disciples are prowling the streets, staring down the sights of machine guns, building fighting positions in and around the mosque, the town’s biggest, and pointing rocket-propelled grenades at the highway to the north, the direction they expect to see American troops to come rumbling down the road.
“The only way the Americans will enter this city is entering over our bodies,” said Sheikh Abu Mahdi Al Rubayee, a commander in Mr. Sadr’s private army. “If they come for our leader, they will ignite all of Iraq.”
Kufa, about 100 miles south of Baghdad, is now completely militarized. Officials of the American-led occupation, who have accused Mr. Sadr of inciting violence and unleashing his armed followers against occupation forces, have said they will apprehend him when they are ready.
“There will be no warning,” a senior spokesman for occupation authorities, Dan Senor, said.
. . . .
“This is bad,” said Adil Sahab, a doctor’s assistant. “Look at how idle these boys are. Trouble is coming. Can’t you feel it?”
The most dangerous creatures in the world are young men. They have no fear of consequence. They don’t know the odds. This is why we ask young men to die for us in battle. This is why al-Sadr and his followers, virtually all in their twenties (or younger), are so dangerous.
Swift and without mercy. It is already bad for Iraq. It will go badly for us. We have no choice.
UPDATE: I truly wish I wasn’t in complete agreement with this assessment.
Do we have posting rules here? I have no civil language with which to respond to this catastrophe. For the moment
Everyone just take a breath please…Yes, it’s out of control, but it’s out of control in more ways than one: Folks are advocating dropping a MOAB on the mosque or worse.
The Military over there is the best in the world people. Let them work.
Oh, but if you have tickets to the trade fair Destination Baghdad Expo already, you should know it’s been postponed.
Oh, but if you have tickets to the trade fair Destination Baghdad Expo already, you should know it’s been postponed.
Well, shoot.* There goes my plan to make a few bucks selling Hummels.
*No pun intended.
von, I was just asking over at tacitus about young men and battle. Your reasoning hadn’t occurred to me but it makes sense. It makes my stomach knot up, but it makes sense.
And I’m with Edward. We have a terrific military and I’m hoping that they are not being micromanaged. I would think that the current chaos would perhaps convince the DC folks to listen to their commanders and do as they recommend.
Edward, Ms. Parker most certainly did not advocate nuking the Sunni Triangle in her column. She opined on how easy it would be to do so, just as easy as leaving right now would be, but she went on to note how we can, of course, do neither in good conscience.
It would be an interesting tactic however to annouce the imminent dropping of a MOAB. Perhaps Sadr could be captured trying to leave. Perhaps the innocent would leave allowing our forces to be less concerned about innocent casualties and more about getting Sadr.
How do we fight those whose greatest fear is to live in a secular society? What do we have to do to convince them that our greatest fear is a world with them in charge?
The military options are not good ones — an armed assault on the mosque? Maybe there is a way to make a surgical strike, but can the CPA afford to start a pitched war with the Sadr militias at this time? We are talking about literally tens of thousands of well armed guys.
Its a certainty these guys prefer martyrdom, which is the ultimate long-term disaster.
von, check out Biden/Lugar on the NewsHour – they haven’t been told what the plan is, or even been kept up-to-date on what’s going on – or gotten access to Bush. They’re worried that it will be hard to get congress behind a last-minute proposal – and that the admin is engulfed in internal policy fights.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/newshour_index.html
“Also, Arbain starts Thursday. This commemoration marks the fortieth day after the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Husayn (10 Muharram), and involves a pilgrimage by hundreds of thousands of pious Shiites to Karbala and Najaf. If the US authorities in Iraq have any sense, they won’t try anything until Arbain is over.” Juan Cole
Cole also reports a rumor that Muqtada Sadr has moved to the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf.
Hey, just trying to cheer y’all up.
Sadr is now holed up like a rat. From this “Reuters” piece:
Sistani is breaking from Sadr, and Sadr has effectively marginalized himself into a corner. He’s under siege, so we can wait the guy out. What a hide-behind-the-skirts pussy.
It actually, with BD’s post, to be pretty good news. As I see it, it means Sistani and the other clerics are accepting a *very* weak Sharia in Iraq. Cause that is what the argument is about
There goes my plan to make a few bucks selling Hummels.
You know, the first time I read that I thought it was “Hummers” and I thought, “hmmm, yeah, you’d most likely clean up.”
Biden/Lugar (nice visual of the way they work the press, rilkefan) were careful to suggest it’s not about their egos, the President keeping them at arm’s length…but it’s beginning to look like public pressure is the only motivating factor for this Administration to come out with any information about anything….so I’d say Biden/Lugar are simply trying the back door approach, since the front door to 1600 Penn. Ave seems locked.
Ya know, as in BD’s post above, Sistani & friends have been so patient, have given up so much, have risked so much….
that if this ends up as American-propped Ahmed Chalabi Dictator-for-Life, with sons inheriting…
pretty bad that I think this President is capable of that, that I am unsure that it isn’t the plan
Bob, it’s the only plan anyone’s mentioned so far, but I can’t imgaine Bush would do that…
bob, I know. I will spit nails if Chalabi gets power after everything. He’s still on the payroll and that’s heinous enough.