Mickey Kaus passes along the rumor that, if nominated, Kerry may pick Evan Bayh as his running mate. Why? Because Bayh may win Indiana for Kerry:
kf hears semi-reliably that Kerry’s polling shows that Edwards on the ticket doesn’t win any states for Kerry, even in the South–while Evan Bayh does win Indiana (which is hard to believe, Indiana being a pretty Republican state). … Might as well go after him, John!
Actually, Indiana is probably more in play this election cycle than it ever has been. Once a reliably Republican state (outside of the college towns of Lafayette/West Lafayette and Bloomington, and the Chicago suburbs of Gary and Hammond), it has been trending steadily Democratic of late.* It’s current Democratic governor, Joe Kernan, is popular — and a solid favorite over his high-profile GOP opponent, former Bush Budget Director Mitch Daniels.** Indianapolis, once a Republican stronghold, easily re-elected its Democratic mayor and has elected a majority-Democratic City Council for the first time in living memory. (A slight exaggeration, but not by much.) Democrats even expect to pick up a seat or two in the Indiana legislature.
Losing Indiana won’t cost Bush the election in and of itself. But, if once-solid Indiana’s looks to be in play, what does it say about perennially-on-the-fence Ohio? Or Illinois, for that matter?
p.s. Is it too late to call off my bet with Harley? I took Bush for a fifth of Beefeater Gin, him ABB for a fifth of Vodka (brand escapes me).
*Granted, they tend to be moderate Democrats. Think Evan Bayh, but less polished.
**My wife thinks that having been Bush’s budget director may be enough to sink Mitch Daniel’s campaign by itself. Hoosiers hate taxes, but they may hate deficits even more.
I like Bayh, he’d be an inspired choice. Of course I’d prefer the ticket be reversed, but…
Oh, I don’t care for that at all. Well, Kaus has a history of being wrong.
Is Bayh too conservative for you, Katherine?
You’re not getting out of this bet, buster. Tho’ if you’re ever in LA we can shift the terms and time of my vodka drinking. And as for the brand, it’s Ketel One.
Why am I so confident? (And this, like all fleeting emotions, is subject to change.) The Bush admin. has managed to display corruption, arrogance, and ineptitude to a startling degree in the last several months. And it’s the ineptitude that surprises me. And while politics is godknows dynamic, I’ve always felt that Shrub’s support was a mile wide and an inch deep. The polls of late confirm it. The news for the admin. is worse and worser. And of all people, John Kerry is looking like a formidable candidate. Add to that the unexpectedly fervent desire among Dem voters to toss the rascals out? And you’ve got a recipe for a brand new administration. Not to mention a little free vodka for me.
Kaus is a not a reliable source for Kerry speculation. The Mickster has this strange obession with the man, read what Kaus said about a Kerry/Edwards ticket if you don’t get what I’m saying.
If Indiana is going to be in play, maybe I’d better switch my registration back home in time for the general… especially since I kinda doubt Massachussetts will need much of my help throwing the vote the Dem’s way.
And you’ve got a recipe for a brand new administration. Not to mention a little free vodka for me.
Shoot. It seemed like a shoe-in when I made the bet. ‘Course, I was counting on finding WMDs comin’ out of Saddam’s wazoo . . . .
The Mickster has this strange obession with the man,
Yeah, I know, Andrew. It’s more than a little disturbing.
Beefeater? Drink Gordon’s (for gin and tonic, anyway).
Beefeater? Drink Gordon’s (for gin and tonic, anyway).
I know, I know. I like Gordons. (Actually, I’m pretty fond of all gin. There’s a story about a plastic bottle of Osco’s-brand (a drug store) Gin that followed me around for a few years . . . . and eventually became a wedding shower present to me and my wife.)