Month: December 2003

Primary schedule

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This American Prospect article is really worth reading if you’re at all interested in the Demcoratic primary. It gives you the calendar, the delegate count, and a brief handicapping of the race in each state. My wild guesses about when we’ll have our nominee & who it’s likely to be, in order of likelihood: 1. … Read more

Dean’s foreign policy speech

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The text is here.

Not surprisingly, I liked it. The substance is very good. I wish he’d said more about the most dangerous countries–Iraq, North Korea, Pakistan. But this was more of an outline of priorities; there will be other days for those questions. I thought he dealt with Saddam’s capture perfectly, & he rode my hobbyhorse on Nunn-Lugar and non-proliferation.

It’s hard to tell much about the style because I didn’t see it delivered. Based on a quick read-through, he’s got a bit of a big-word/wonkspeak problem which Dean usually does not have. There are also some really excellent moments, though.

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I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

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The chances of the Democrats taking back the Senate appear to be getting slimmer. CNN is reporting that John Breaux (D-La) will retire in 2004 rather than seek re-election:

[John Breaux] is the fifth Democrat from a southern state to announce his retirement before the 2004 elections. Others are Zell Miller, Georgia; Bob Graham, Florida; John Edwards, North Carolina; and Fritz Hollings, South Carolina.

Some, undoubtedly, will minimize this loss by pointing out that Breaux was a glad-handling backroom boy, a DINO, and good riddence to him (thank you very much). Sure, he was all of that. But he was also insanely popular in Louisiana, and he faced no serious challenge for re-election in 2004. His departure means that the likelihood of the Democrats recovering the Senate is, well, unlikely.

So, here’re two half-formulated thoughts for you to ponder (or dispute): First, why the heck are the Democrats losing their few remaining Southerners to retirement? We’re past the stage of mere coincidence or unlucky timing — five Democratic Senators from a relatively Democratic-Senator-Free region is more than a lot. I’m tempted to say that it has something to do with Dean’s rise an an anti-war type — but, then, all of my pronouncements on Dean are inherently suspect given my general dislike of the man.

Second, I am not looking forward to what I now believe to be the most likely outcome of the 2004 election cycle: A Republican President, A Republican House, and a Republican Senate. This is because the current Republican agenda appears to be “detax and spend, spend, spend.” Not exactly sound fiscal planning (or conservatism, as traditionally defined).* And, frankly, I’m a little scared about the quality of judicial nominees that have thus far been offered by this administration. A Republican trifecta is hardly likely to provide the needed “Saul on the road to Damascus” moment on either point.

So, bid adieu to Breaux. We’ll sure miss ya.

von

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Generic Blogging Article Title #1

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The Politburo Diktat has an interesting post up about bloggers, blogmasters and blog-states. Obsidian Wings is, of course, a blogger site with at least some delusions of being a blogmaster site someday: at least, I think that it’d be vaguely cool to be one and my cobloggers probably wouldn’t object too much. But it was … Read more

How Dreadfully Embarrassing.

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I completely forgot to note that Saturday was our one-month blogoversary. I think that Katherine, von and I have done reasonably well in that time period – aside, of course, from the ongoing failure of my constant schemes and plots to get blogrolled by every other blog in existence. Yes, blogrolls, yess, my precciousss blogrolllesess… … Read more

Pakistan

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Someone tried to assassinate Pervez Musharraf today: “A bomb exploded moments after Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s motorcade passed a bridge near the capital Sunday, at least the second attempt on his life since he enraged hard-liners in 2001 by backing the U.S.-led war on terror in Afghanistan. No one was hurt. ” Full story … Read more

Hussein

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Michael N. just posted the words to an old hymn in the comments:
“When tyrants tremble in their fear
And hear their death knell ringing
When friends rejoice both far and near
How can I keep from singing?”

I thought that deserved to be on our main page.

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Bearly Remembered to Blog This…

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Sorry about the pun. Actually, no, I’m not. Girlfriend has sent me back to blog – she is updating expensive new Palm Pilot – so there you go. Anyhow, I’ve been meaning to blog about this for days: NZ Bear pointed out this Slate article about alternative ways to reduce the New Jersey black bear … Read more

At last.

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Well, they finally caught the bastard. Tac’s declared a 24 gloating period over here: feel free to indulge, if you like… but I’d like to save this thread for serious and non-partisan thoughts about what to do with Hussein now that we have them. And it can be taken as assumed that you’re happy that … Read more

If I were, say, putting this in a novel…

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…then this NYT Op-Ed by David Brooks would be shortly followed by Bush announcing that we’ll let our good, dear friends France, Germany and Russia bid on those Iraqi contracts after all. Not that I have anything against David or his article – indeed, I found it a most amusing rasberry in the face of … Read more

Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence

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Wampum is taking nominations for the 2003 Koufax Awards, for the best of the left-of-center blogosphere, here and here. (There is also a category for “best right-of-center blogger”). I assume Yankee fans are welcome to vote despite the title; I leave it to conservatives whether they should or not….in any case don’t miss last year’s … Read more

Dem-on-Dem Action

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This ad is, to put it bluntly, crap. How on earth are we going to respond as a party to the inevitable Democratic-nominee-into-Hussein-and-bin-Laden ad when we’ve got Kerry and Gephardt campaign officials doing this? If they wanted to stop Dean because they think he’d be a terrible candidate, or because he lacks experience on defense, … Read more

Several Technical Issues

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1) You will have noticed the new bloglist: Backscratch Blogs. These are blogs that link to us that we don’t already have in one list or another: if you do so blog to us, feel free to let us know and if you’re not evilnastybad we’ll note your extreme good taste. 2) Question to Typepad … Read more

I only repeat what I’m told

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From the Commissar*, comes trenchant musings on perhaps the greatest danger to Israel: A one state solution. [W]atch out for a certain reporter/worldbeater, friend of Saudi royals, … da, the anti-zhid himself, Thomas Friedman. . . . Commissar watched his Discovery Channel television show last night. Is on again on Monday, 8 PM. . . … Read more

Some quick notes

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1) Norm Geras from my blogroll has joined Typepad. He wanted people to know. 2) Michael Totten’s back. He wanted people to know. 3) I’ve added a Iraqi blogger Typelist, because, really, we should have had one from the start. 4) First full day without nicotine, and it seems to be going pretty smoothly; and … Read more

About this Miserable Failure thing…

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… all y’all futzing around with it do know that some of us, like, actually use Google to do our jobs, right? I mean, I don’t begrudge any of you your fun, but don’t break the nice indexing protocols, ‘kay?

I Have No Idea

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… I just felt like rewriting the beginning of the Prologue to Richard III. Hey, at least I didn’t call it “A Canticle For Lieberman”…

Moe

PS: Don’t read too much into this one, guys. The link to the text I used to mutate this found here. Also, rilkefan gets a golf clap for tracking it down so quickly.

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The Disappeared

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via Instapundit (I know, I know), we have a several-day-old-article about a new poll counting the number of Baghdad residents Saddam Hussein murdered. The estimate they come up with is 61,000, in Baghdad alone.

This was higher than previous estimates, but it does not really surprise me. I never doubted him to be a thug and a murderer and whatever invective I could come up with–though every time you’re confronted with the numbers again you wonder how the Iraqi people could possibly be worse off when all this is over, no matter how much we screw it up.

But what I’m really interested in, for the purposes of this post, is the methodology:

“The survey obtained Monday, which the polling firm planned to release on Tuesday, asked 1,178 Baghdad residents in August and September whether a member of their household had been executed by Saddam’s regime. According to Gallup, 6.6 percent said yes.

The polling firm took metropolitan Baghdad’s population — 6.39 million — and average household size — 6.9 people — to calculate that 61,000 people were executed during Saddam’s rule. Past estimates were in the low tens of thousands. Most are believed to have been buried in mass graves.”

I’ve never heard of this casualty-count-by-poll before. Do we have any statisticians or social scientists reading this? Is this a decent method of counting casualties? How does it differ from the use of press reports or anecdotal evidence, or mass graves, or the various other methods that are used?

I have no idea if it’s even remotely accurate. But if it is, we should consider using it to figure out how many civilians (or for that matter soldiers) were killed in the U.S. invasion, and its aftermath.

(continued, and please read the whole thing before commenting.)

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So I sit in Snuffy’s Diner, and I smoke cigarettes, and I eat clam chowder every day. And every day is shorter than the last. And every day is colder than the last.

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Well, winter came early for poor ole Joey from the CT. Better pundits than I have already blogged his political death from both the left and the right, so let this instead be a commemorative open thread for the good Senator. Stop by, offer a consoling thought, and, well, move on. ‘Cause he’s totally, like, last year.

Or, keep on fighting over Dean: below, in inviso-text, I attempt to respond to Katherine ’s and Oberon’s comments regarding my post last night on the good doctor. (By the way, this pretty much sums up what I’m feeling right now.)

von

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Two Bits of Information…

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1). According to my esteemed coblogger Katherine, we are now #1 for Google searches for Obsidian Wings! Hurrah! And double hurrah that I’m not the only one who egogoogles this site! 2). Apparently, the interestingly odd site known as Fafblog has been taken over by one of its guest posters and is now claiming this … Read more

Fear my wrath…

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…for the last nicotine patch has fallen off, its body leeched of the hell’s brew that has kept me sane these last eight weeks. I can feel the last tendrils of it dissipating into fog, then mist, then vapors… and deep, deep below (where the gators of the id reside) sleeps a Thing uneasily. Fair … Read more

I have a question about Episode III.

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Am I the only person out there who will be happy to see: : Anakin Skywalker get tossed into an acid vat, or explosively decompressed, or exposed to plasma fire, or whatever it is that’ll turn him into Vader? : Obi-Wan Kenobi run like a scared little bunny? : The Jedi Order in general be … Read more

Time for some more advice…

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… to wit, if Howard Dean was looking for his version of a “Sister Souljah” moment, he could do worse than to condemn the Kuchinich ad. Not a retraction of his antiwar stance, mind you: just a rejection of the conspiracy theories – which he will eventually have to do anyway. Just saying, that’s all.

I hate partisan political books.

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I really, really hate them. Left, Right, Democratic, Republican, Green, Libertarian, Single-Taxer, right down the list. Which is why I’m going to be mean to them now.

Yup, I’m going to be blatantly unfair and cruel to books based on their titles and authors and nothing else. So?

Yup, upon rereading the comments I was, like, totally ad-hom and stuff So?

Yup, I didn’t include ISBNs. So?

(pause)

OK, OK, I should have done that, but it’s too late now.

Moe

PS: I’ve probably missed a few: this list was originally taken from here, and there’s a definite Left-bias to the list. Believe me, I’m happy too that right-wing political hacks can’t make the NYT bestseller lists.

PPS: My girlfriend’s response to this entire post was to take a martial arts pose and intone “Fear the inexorable power of the three-toed sloth”. I’m not sure, but I think that this was a somewhat subtle critique of the general utility (more accurately, the lack of same) of this post. Either that, or she was mocking my Useless Forearm Tyrannosaurus Rex Kung Fu. Unfortunately, she’s asleep now, so I can’t ask her.

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You cannot live on other people’s promises, but if you promise others enough, you can live on your own.*

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Howard Dean has a seven point plan on Iraq. It’s a tough-talker, Dean’s plan, the kind that should be popular among among lefty-blogohawks like myself. You’ve heard us pontificate before, haven’t you? We always want more — “more money, more troops, UN involvement” — and all that rot. Well, Dean’s plan is all that and … Read more

I was actually pretty calm and so forth…

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… got home from a nice evening out with friends, no hassles, good times all around. Then I saw this utter, unmitigated piece of garbage. (Via Balloon Juice) Now, I am aware that Dennis Kuchinich has been declared to be a nonserious candidate for President by most of the Democratic Party. I am aware that … Read more