Alternative (and Other) Facts — Weekend Open Thread

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by wj

Note Silver has been running a series of columns at 538 on the 2016 election and why so many predictions were so far off. The latest talks about Early Voting.

This quote kicked off something in my mind: “On Oct. 23, for instance, The New York Times argued that because Clinton had banked votes in North Carolina and Florida, it might already be too late for Donald Trump to come back in those states.” It occurs to me that “analyses” like that might actually have had an impact on the election.

Consider. You are a voter who is extremely unhappy about the way that the country has been being run. But you aren’t so unhappy that you want to see a loose cannon like Trump in office. You want change; not a nut case and chaos. So you have no intention of voting for him.

Then you read an article that says he has no chance to win in your state. Which lead to the possibility that you can make safely a statement about how unhappy you are, without the risk of him being elected. So you, and a bunch of others who feel similarly, vote for him strictly as a protest. And wake up the next morning to discover that those articles were wrong, and you have just contributed to a result that you in no way wanted. Oops.

All of this isn’t exactly a matter of “alternative facts”. That is, you weren’t refusing to believe solid evidence, and making up stuff instead. But it does show what happens when uncertainty is large, and someone who purports to be an expert tells you something that you would like to believe. Critical thinking isn’t easy; especially when you already know what would be convenient if it were real.

48 thoughts on “Alternative (and Other) Facts — Weekend Open Thread”

  1. This immigration order is horrific and I’ve seen a couple places where it’s said it’s plainly contrary to law. Of course, issued on a Friday maybe after the D.C. Federal Courts closed?

  2. This immigration order is horrific and I’ve seen a couple places where it’s said it’s plainly contrary to law. Of course, issued on a Friday maybe after the D.C. Federal Courts closed?

  3. ISIS and al Qaeda were right! The United States really is engaged in a crusade against Islam! Thanks President Trump.

  4. ISIS and al Qaeda were right! The United States really is engaged in a crusade against Islam! Thanks President Trump.

  11. Probably but it’s an extra step in the process and of course they won’t be happy about it, although that can cut both ways.
    From twitter: A very important question. There are active-duty US military personnel serving abroad who hold green cards. Are they denied homecoming?

  12. Probably but it’s an extra step in the process and of course they won’t be happy about it, although that can cut both ways.
    From twitter: A very important question. There are active-duty US military personnel serving abroad who hold green cards. Are they denied homecoming?

  13. I belong to a major international organization**, involving computer technical issues. They hold meetings around the world on a rotating schedule, with North America coming up every couple of years.
    Now, we are looking at whether the next meeting scheduled in the US should be relocated (presumably to Canada). Because, after all, under the order some of our participants may be unable to get visas. Just one example of possible lost hotel and conference business (anybody remember the impact of North Carolina’s bathroom bill?) from this stupid move. Not to mention the reduced participation of Americans in setting the standards by which the subject of this conference is run worldwide — including in the US.
    ** In keeping with the paranoia of the day, I refrain from saying exactly who. At least until the organization decides if it is going to break all past precedent and take a stand on a political issue. Which is being seriously considered. We’ve managed to hold meetings in some otherwise dicey places. so long as attendee safety was adequate. But then, we’ve never seen a case where some people might be flat forbidden to attend.

  14. I belong to a major international organization**, involving computer technical issues. They hold meetings around the world on a rotating schedule, with North America coming up every couple of years.
    Now, we are looking at whether the next meeting scheduled in the US should be relocated (presumably to Canada). Because, after all, under the order some of our participants may be unable to get visas. Just one example of possible lost hotel and conference business (anybody remember the impact of North Carolina’s bathroom bill?) from this stupid move. Not to mention the reduced participation of Americans in setting the standards by which the subject of this conference is run worldwide — including in the US.
    ** In keeping with the paranoia of the day, I refrain from saying exactly who. At least until the organization decides if it is going to break all past precedent and take a stand on a political issue. Which is being seriously considered. We’ve managed to hold meetings in some otherwise dicey places. so long as attendee safety was adequate. But then, we’ve never seen a case where some people might be flat forbidden to attend.

  15. I wonder if letting go the State Department management personnel was part of this. Break the system and fire the people who could most quickly put it back together.

  16. I wonder if letting go the State Department management personnel was part of this. Break the system and fire the people who could most quickly put it back together.

  19. This likely includes nuclear inspectors. Trump will use as excuse to cancel Iran deal much to Netanyahu’s delight, who tweeted today in favor of trumps EOs, out of the blue so there is speculation about a quid pro quo

  20. This likely includes nuclear inspectors. Trump will use as excuse to cancel Iran deal much to Netanyahu’s delight, who tweeted today in favor of trumps EOs, out of the blue so there is speculation about a quid pro quo

  23. I wonder if this EO will be taken as applying to UN delegates. We managed, for decades, to put them in a special category. (Even when all relations with Cuba were shut down, the Cuban delegation to the UN was in New York.) And I believe we are bound by treaty to allow them all to come, which means that an EO wouldn’t change things. At least, not in law.
    But with this gang of lunatics, who knows.

  24. I wonder if this EO will be taken as applying to UN delegates. We managed, for decades, to put them in a special category. (Even when all relations with Cuba were shut down, the Cuban delegation to the UN was in New York.) And I believe we are bound by treaty to allow them all to come, which means that an EO wouldn’t change things. At least, not in law.
    But with this gang of lunatics, who knows.

  25. Going in a different (but perhaps related) direction. Colbert King has an interesting column in the Washington Post:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/rubio-wants-to-let-guns-onto-dc-streets-why-not-let-them-into-the-capitol/2017/01/27/7a3f9ac4-e41a-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?utm_term=.61f0c8042be7
    The gist of it: if having guns makes everybody safer, to the extent that students having them in school might be a good idea, why not take it further? Remove all of the current restrictions on firearms on Capitol Hill and in Congressional Office buildings.
    Currently, nobody except members of Congress (and Capitol police, of course) can carry guns . . . and members’ guns have to be unloaded. Why not make our Congress safer by allowing everybody to carry guns there? Sounds at least as sensible as having guns in schools.

  26. Going in a different (but perhaps related) direction. Colbert King has an interesting column in the Washington Post:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/rubio-wants-to-let-guns-onto-dc-streets-why-not-let-them-into-the-capitol/2017/01/27/7a3f9ac4-e41a-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?utm_term=.61f0c8042be7
    The gist of it: if having guns makes everybody safer, to the extent that students having them in school might be a good idea, why not take it further? Remove all of the current restrictions on firearms on Capitol Hill and in Congressional Office buildings.
    Currently, nobody except members of Congress (and Capitol police, of course) can carry guns . . . and members’ guns have to be unloaded. Why not make our Congress safer by allowing everybody to carry guns there? Sounds at least as sensible as having guns in schools.

  27. Iraqi parliament discussing banning all US citizens from visiting including contractors. Wonder if that includes military, likely not.

  28. Iraqi parliament discussing banning all US citizens from visiting including contractors. Wonder if that includes military, likely not.

  29. I realise this is an Open Thread, but still.
    However, I am trying, in my technologically incompetent way, to set up a new computer. When I try to come to this site, I am told “This page is trying to load scripts from unauthorised sources”, and when I open anyway, the https is struck through in red. As soon as I click on a specific post, in order to see comments or leave one, the problem appears to vanish. Has anybody else encountered this, or has any helpful tips?

  30. I realise this is an Open Thread, but still.
    However, I am trying, in my technologically incompetent way, to set up a new computer. When I try to come to this site, I am told “This page is trying to load scripts from unauthorised sources”, and when I open anyway, the https is struck through in red. As soon as I click on a specific post, in order to see comments or leave one, the problem appears to vanish. Has anybody else encountered this, or has any helpful tips?

  31. Congressmen all out of town too.
    GftNC – I’m not techie enough to help u but maybe someone else can. LJ perhaps when he’s back up. Sorry!

  32. Congressmen all out of town too.
    GftNC – I’m not techie enough to help u but maybe someone else can. LJ perhaps when he’s back up. Sorry!

  35. GftNC:
    Firefox 51 and Chrome 56 have started popping up additional warnings for potential security holes. One of the warnings is for old-style insecure HTTPS certificates, one of them is for pages with password fields delivered over HTTP rather than HTTPS. Defaults for same-source restrictions are also tighter than in the past.

  36. GftNC:
    Firefox 51 and Chrome 56 have started popping up additional warnings for potential security holes. One of the warnings is for old-style insecure HTTPS certificates, one of them is for pages with password fields delivered over HTTP rather than HTTPS. Defaults for same-source restrictions are also tighter than in the past.

  37. Thanks Michael Cain. Would you recommend, in the case for example of ObWi, that I override and ignore?

  38. Thanks Michael Cain. Would you recommend, in the case for example of ObWi, that I override and ignore?

  41. And I see that Bibi is encouraging Trump’s “southern wall”. No doubt based on Israel’s experience with building walls.
    But a “southern wall”?
    Sure, just build it on the 1861 border between treasonous rebel states and the rest of the USA.

  42. And I see that Bibi is encouraging Trump’s “southern wall”. No doubt based on Israel’s experience with building walls.
    But a “southern wall”?
    Sure, just build it on the 1861 border between treasonous rebel states and the rest of the USA.

  47. Donald, those two flat lines for women are shocking.
    But the comments included on the link are simply depressing. I suppose that, if someone decides that they aren’t interested in living long, that’s their choice. But it’s depressing nonetheless.

  48. Donald, those two flat lines for women are shocking.
    But the comments included on the link are simply depressing. I suppose that, if someone decides that they aren’t interested in living long, that’s their choice. But it’s depressing nonetheless.

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