Month: March 2011

by liberal japonicus

While I said that I was going to open a thread about the nuclear crisis in Japan, I started to try and compile some links and got hopelessly overwhelmed. Reactor design, gamma rays, wind patterns, iodine tablets, cooling ponds, spent fuel rods, MOX, microsieverts versus millisieverts, etc etc. Another problem is that I go to bed, and wake up to face 8 hours of new information from Japan, I just don't think I could do it justice.

Still the alarmist beat goes on. Now CNN is noting that Japan has a 12 mile evacuation but the White House told American citizens should evacuate outside 50 miles and opine how this shows that the Japanese government is keeping information from their citizens. Thinking about the population density, where the f'&%#$k would those Japanese people go? How would they move all those people who may be in hospitals? Where would they be housed? There is gas shortages and rationing, such that my wife thinks I won't be able to get the bus from the international airport at Narita to the domestic hub at Haneda. The US can ask its citizens to move because they are a minority in the population, they are largely young, and they can move somewhere. The population of Fukushima prefecture is about 2 million and I'd estimate that one-third to one half of those live within 50 miles of the nuclear reactor complex. Some of the pictures of people being checked for radiation have the location of Koriyama, 60 miles from the nuclear complex. Given those numbers and the size of the relief effort to the areas struck by the tsunami, how is this supposed to work? Transporters and holodecks? Of course, as we saw in Katrina, In the US, they would tell everyone to evacuate and be shocked that people living below the poverty line had problems getting out of town. But below the fold, I talk about the Japanese group spirit a bit.

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by Eric Martin

There has been an increasing chorus of voices urging the US (acting with its allies in NATO, the UN or in tandem with some ad hoc coalition of the willing) to impose a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace, with lawmakers from both parties, as well as foreign leaders, making appeals to implement some variation of such a policy in recent days.

To some extent, this impulse is understandable given the increasingly violent clashes in Libya, with government forces making gains on rebel positions and showing a willingness to use indiscriminate force in populated areas.  

On the other hand, when pondering the involvement of US forces, first and foremost, elected leaders must consider whether such an intervention is in our national interest, and, if so, what can realistically be accomplished and at what costs.  Along those lines, it is essential to establish what the objective of the intervention would be and what future actions will be necessitated/spurred on by the initial decision to intervene militarily. To paraphrase General Petraeus, "Tell me how this ends."

Despite legitimate concerns for civilian casualties, and the potential for atrocities, thus far Qaddafi has been primarily using air power to combat rebel forces within his nation's borders.  The effect of a no-fly zone, then, would be to prevent Qaddafi from being able to use air power in that fight (as well as to safeguard civilians from airborne assaults). 

Thus, even if justified on humanitarian grounds, the no-fly zone would serve the purpose of tilting the battlefield in favor of rebel forces - though some argue that supporting the rebels should be an explicit goal in itself, with the no-fly zone buttressed (or replaced) by arms and other aid provided directly to rebel forces.  Regardless, these outcomes raise several important questions about who we are supporting, to what ends, and to what extent we will be expected to participate in the process.

1. Do we know what the majority of Libyan rebels want and how they envision the future state of Libya in the post-Qaddafi era?  While there is a tendency to view these uprisings, and their participants, through Western-tinted lenses, those Libyans that are involved in the uprising are not monolithic in their outlook, nor are they uniformly pursuing a revolutionary democratic agenda.

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by liberal japonicus

I think that the general outlines of the recent disaster are relatively clear. Ironically, to figure out the history of TiO, which arose from the posts here about Katrina, and I am in awe of how much hilzoy was able to write as the disaster was unfolding. I realize that Katrina was quite different from the earthquake and tsunami, with Katrina unfolding over a longer period of time, as well as the language difference, but still, I start to write something and find myself stuck. However, I'll try to talk about some longer term notions that I think are interesting. I'll put the below the fold

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