Prediction Thread

Who do you think will win? And by how much? I predict Kerry, with an electoral vote count of either 301 (with Florida) or 274 (without it.) (I think Kerry should win Florida, but I am not sure how to take account of the influence of Jeb.) Of the swing states other than Florida, I … Read more

Shocker!

Hindrocket of Powerline, a lawyer who defends against class action cases (among other things), dislikes Judge Dlott — Clinton appointee and, even more vile, wife to Stan Chesley, a plaintiffs’ attorney who “made untold millions through class action lawsuits.” Nevermind that I’m sympathetic to Hindrocket in the global sense — I did some class action … Read more

Spinmeister Contest Open Thread

This post on Marshall has got me wondering: Delightful. I’m looking at a flyer sent around Florida by an outfit called the Florida Leadership Council. The headline reads: “First Day of School: Eighth Grade South Florida Middle School, 2007” Under that is a class of school children wearing gas masks and beneath that is the … Read more

Consider The Deficit: How It Grows…

It toils not, neither does it spin; and yet I say unto you, even Solomon in all his glory did not have nearly this much money. The deficit for FY2004 was about $412,553,000,000 (pdf). The debt is now (Sunday) $7,429,946,398,746.85, or a bit over $22,200 for every man, woman and child in the United States. (This is low, since we hit the debt ceiling recently, and rather than raise it right before the elections, we have been using money from the federal pension funds to pay our bills.) Since George W. Bush took office, the debt has grown by a third (the Times article just cited says 40%, but the government figures seem to indicate a lower number.)

That’s a lot of money. A lot of money. Moreover, our fiscal situation is about to get worse: the baby boom generation will be retiring soon, Social Security will stop providing us with a surplus to loot every year, and Medicare costs are going through the roof; in combination, these facts are shortly going to put a lot of pressure on our federal budget. But rather than face this problem and try to prepare for it by paying down existing debt, President Bush enacted tax cuts that have saddled us with nearly two trillion dollars in additional debt. It’s the tax cuts, more than any other factor, that drive the deficit: when you consider the change from surplus to deficit over the last four years, three times more of it is due to drops in revenue than to increases in spending, including spending on defense, homeland security, and Iraq. And while some of these revenue losses reflect the deficit, more are due to the tax cuts. If the tax cuts are made permanent, they will contribute significantly more to the national debt over the next 75 years than Social Security and Medicare combined. (cite; see table 1.)

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Osama Wants You to Vote for Kerry

Constant-reader Blue wonders why we haven’t posted on Osama bin Laden’s purported threat to each U.S. state that supports Bush. (Via Joe Lindgren at Volokh.) Here’s what bin Laden supposed said (translation via Memri): “Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or Al-Qa’ida. Your security is in your own hands, and … Read more

Number of US Abortions Increased during Bush’s 1st Term

Hat tip to constant reader wilfred for this item ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The data are incomplete, but they make a strong case for why “pro-life” single-issue voters might want to reconsider who they’re pulling the lever for tomorrow. As Joshua Holland reports on the Gadflyer, “abortions in this country have skyrocketed under the Bush administration after a … Read more

Endorsement

Bob Hayes of Let’s Try Freedom has a long post on the election that’s worth quoting at length (but, please, be sure to read the whole thing). Our country is predicated on the idea that we don’t need to have civil wars and hyper-partisan destructive political conflict, because we provide a mechanism for the people … Read more