… better get these in before the polls close, eh?
Michigan: this seems to be the one everybody’s paying attention to: I’m going to agree with Zogby that Kerry’s probably going to win this one… but that 23% Undecided is sending off warning bells in my head. If those votes go either to Dean or Edwards, watch for stories about Kerry’s stumbling; if they divide, then Kerry’s win in MI will be like most of his wins so far: a true win, but not enough of one to increase his lead.
Washington: Kerry, again – but I suspect that Dean is going to do easily well enough in the caucus to pick up delegates. No three way split.
Maine: Kerry. Dean will probably scrounge a delegate or two. No three way split. This is all purely a guess.
Overall: Kerry should do well for himself, objectively speaking – but if it isn’t enough of a blowout for the media it’ll be reported as a stumble. Dean is going to be the designated conversation piece. Edwards and Clark might as well gear up for TN and VA, because they’re not particularly relevant in these three primaries*.
Moe
*And that’s my really go-out-on-a-limb prediction for today.
UPDATE: Below.
Well, either I’m getting better at this – scary thought – or else MI and WA were very easy to call. It looks like Kerry will pick up approximately 71% of the delegates (more than I expected) for Michigan and 59% for WA. Good news for him, although I will note that Kerry’s final voter percentage (51%) in MI didn’t seem notably different than the 47% forecast by Zogby two days ago. That 23% undecided vote must have decided for someone else. Still, if Kerry takes Maine tomorrow it’ll be a sweep, and that should put him in a good position to shrug off any problems in VA or (especially) TN that might arise. Even without a win in ME, it’s a good weekend to be Kerry.
Dean… isn’t dead yet, and getting 30% of the vote in WA will keep him going for a bit longer. Getting second place in MI won’t hurt, either. Maine may be good for him tomorrow; if it is, I think that Dean will downplay TN and VA and lock in on Wisconsin. Actually, that’s probably going to be his strategy if Maine isn’t good for him, but if Dean gets delegates from all three states then he can claim that he’s rebounding.
Edwards must be slightly annoyed that Sharpton got half his votes but twice his delegates, and Clark must just be pissed, period. The latter two can be safely ignored, I think – but Edwards is going to go hammer and tongs at the Southern states, for as long as he can. I guess that’s the question: how long will the Democratic candidates who aren’t Kerry stay in this one? Until next week? Super Tuesday? They’ll see you at the convention, so stop asking?
As long as Edwards, Clark and Dean insist on not criticizing Kerry, Kerry wins by default and it’s see you at the convention.
I don’t understand why they stay in the race if they aren’t going to fight Kerry for the nomination.
As someone who lived in Seattle for eight years, and was elected a delegate to the district caucuses by my precinct caucus in the 1984 campaign, I have to note that, although I saw this coming, Dean only getting 30% is pathetic. Western Washington is as ripe a place for Deanism as there is, and that he couldn’t do better there is an indicator of death. (Note that Kucinich did better than Edwards or Clark.)
(My friends in Washington were for Kerry, both because of electability and his veteran status.)
I very much doubt Dean will do better in Wisconsin. I’m pretty sure he’s now dead. I think he knows it, too.
It’s hard to see Edwards or Clark suddenly rising up, as well, barring Kerry suddenly making massive gaffes or being caught in some terrible scandal/bind.
That front-loading idea worked pretty well, for whatever value of “well.”
Dean has been criticizing Kerry. It’s just that nobody listens to candidates who get 8% in most polls.