Hugh Hewitt Anticipates the Parson.

Now, if you just feel like rolling your eyes at Mr. Hewitt and his latest column about Senator Kerry (International Man of Apology), that’s your own lookout. I’m mostly interested in the last paragraph, as it’s the most likely to actually be able to spark a real discussion:

… He “leads” the party that invented the Torricelli Option, and folks like Daschle have to be worried about a November wipe-out. A “presumptive nominee” isn’t the nominee. Who was that lady on Larry King this week?

It has been a common partisan amusement on both ends of the spectrum to imagine the shenanigans that would arise from a brokered convention for the Other Side; indeed, I myself have drunk that particular brand of Kool-Aid on an occasion or two. I’m not drinking it now, though. Hewitt aside, Kerry is at the moment a mere 110 delegates away from clinching the nomination automatically (via pledged delegates). Once he gets that – and he will – he will win on the first ballot; Kerry will only not be be the Democratic candidate if he chooses not to be.

Now, there are three major motivations that might cause him to choose not to be: principle, bribery or blackmail. None of them seem particularly believable. Presumably, Senator Kerry believes that he is the best Democratic candidate for President – otherwise, why go this far? – and, given that he’s beaten out a full field of competitors, holding that belief seems reasonable of him.

As for bribery… John Kerry is in an interesting spot right now. He could lose outright and still try again in ’08; we’ve had Presidents who failed on their first real try for the job within living memory (Nixon and Reagan pop to mind). But to withdraw from the race… no, that’s final. If Sen. Kerry ever did that, as a practical matter he’d be giving up his chance to ever be President; it be too easy to dismiss him as lacking staying power in the next election cycle. So, it’d take one Hell of a sweetener to convince the current Presidential frontrunner to drop out, especially one who’s already rich, powerful and a US Senator. What could you bribe him with? The thing he most wants is the thing you’re trying to bribe him away from. This argument works against blackmail too, more or less; it’d have to be something extraordinarily big in the scandal department for it to work. Literal bodies-in-cellars levels of bigness. I somehow doubt Kerry has anything remotely that large to hide; I don’t like the guy, but I don’t believe him to be evil incarnate, and besides we’d have heard something by now.

Bottom line: Kerry’s in it for the duration, thick or thin. A unpredictable convention might have been fun to watch, but it isn’t going to happen. Which is probably a good thing for the Democrats, but that’s a whole different issue.

Sorry, Hugh.