by JanieM
Gloom, rain, and wind here in central Maine. Family stuff keeping me busy, so feel free to bring up any topic that has caught your fancy on this December Saturday.
Open thread.
564 thoughts on “Rainy Day Open Thread”
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Rain in Northern California as well. And we are loving it!
Even though we have opted to spend the day outside. It being the 24 Hours of Lemons race just up the road.
Rain in Northern California as well. And we are loving it!
Even though we have opted to spend the day outside. It being the 24 Hours of Lemons race just up the road.
Rained here earlier, now cloudy and damp out. Had to come in to work today, coming in about 2 hours before college football SEC championship game next door, crush of fans on train and getting out of station. Game has now just started. Should finish before I leave work at least.
Rained here earlier, now cloudy and damp out. Had to come in to work today, coming in about 2 hours before college football SEC championship game next door, crush of fans on train and getting out of station. Game has now just started. Should finish before I leave work at least.
Cooler than average December day here, but at least it’s pretty calm. Wind “event” for the last two days, maximums in the 50-60 mph range. Makes you think twice about going to the mailbox. What if your hand slips? You’d never get the mail back.
Cooler than average December day here, but at least it’s pretty calm. Wind “event” for the last two days, maximums in the 50-60 mph range. Makes you think twice about going to the mailbox. What if your hand slips? You’d never get the mail back.
Here’s another version of the OpenAI language model that is a chatbot and free to use though you’ll have to create an account. These models were created using a huge chunk of the Internet including Obsidian Wings.
You can have a conversation with it or ask it questions. Sometimes it will complain that it’s just an AI that’s not connected to the Internet and doesn’t know anything about what you’re asking. But if you prod it, it does know or will make something up. And it will generate a near-infinite number of poems about winter in Maine or anywhere else.
“Write a poem about winter in the state of Maine.
Winter in Maine is a thing to behold
A blanket of snow that never grows old
Icicles hang from every roof and tree
A winter wonderland for you and me
The air is crisp and the sky is clear
As we bundle up and head out with cheer
Sledding down hills and skating on ice
A magical season that’s oh so nice
The trees stand tall, a stark white hue
A picturesque scene, the perfect view
As the sun sets and the stars come out
We cozy up by the fire, no need to pout
Winter in Maine, it’s a special time
A season to cherish, to call mine
The beauty and joy it brings each day
A true treasure that we should never delay.”
OpenAI: Chat
Here’s another version of the OpenAI language model that is a chatbot and free to use though you’ll have to create an account. These models were created using a huge chunk of the Internet including Obsidian Wings.
You can have a conversation with it or ask it questions. Sometimes it will complain that it’s just an AI that’s not connected to the Internet and doesn’t know anything about what you’re asking. But if you prod it, it does know or will make something up. And it will generate a near-infinite number of poems about winter in Maine or anywhere else.
“Write a poem about winter in the state of Maine.
Winter in Maine is a thing to behold
A blanket of snow that never grows old
Icicles hang from every roof and tree
A winter wonderland for you and me
The air is crisp and the sky is clear
As we bundle up and head out with cheer
Sledding down hills and skating on ice
A magical season that’s oh so nice
The trees stand tall, a stark white hue
A picturesque scene, the perfect view
As the sun sets and the stars come out
We cozy up by the fire, no need to pout
Winter in Maine, it’s a special time
A season to cherish, to call mine
The beauty and joy it brings each day
A true treasure that we should never delay.”
OpenAI: Chat
As I teach English as a foreign language, AI, chatbots and other technological challenges to the Turing Test are something that is often discussed. Some teachers have tried some of them in their courses, but I haven’t seen anything that has really had a great impact on outcomes.
Some links about AI, creativity and stuff.
https://hedgehogreview.com/web-features/thr/posts/autocomplete
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/12/why-the-rise-of-ai-is-the-most-important-story-of-the-year/672308/
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3200976/ai-rewriting-rules-creativity-what-does-mean-human-imagination
https://www.fastcompany.com/90808320/writing-with-ai-results
https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/09/27/design-becoming-writer-s-medium-meet-the-ai-creators-changing-creativity-forever
https://www.wired.com/story/picture-limitless-creativity-ai-image-generators/
https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/09/27/design-becoming-writer-s-medium-meet-the-ai-creators-changing-creativity-forever
https://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2016/09/competitive-cognitive-artifacts-and.html
As I teach English as a foreign language, AI, chatbots and other technological challenges to the Turing Test are something that is often discussed. Some teachers have tried some of them in their courses, but I haven’t seen anything that has really had a great impact on outcomes.
Some links about AI, creativity and stuff.
https://hedgehogreview.com/web-features/thr/posts/autocomplete
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/12/why-the-rise-of-ai-is-the-most-important-story-of-the-year/672308/
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3200976/ai-rewriting-rules-creativity-what-does-mean-human-imagination
https://www.fastcompany.com/90808320/writing-with-ai-results
https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/09/27/design-becoming-writer-s-medium-meet-the-ai-creators-changing-creativity-forever
https://www.wired.com/story/picture-limitless-creativity-ai-image-generators/
https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/09/27/design-becoming-writer-s-medium-meet-the-ai-creators-changing-creativity-forever
https://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2016/09/competitive-cognitive-artifacts-and.html
lj, thanks for the links.
lj, thanks for the links.
Ok, I know this is a can of worms, but can anyone tell wtf is going on in Israel:
Netanyahu just put Relgious Zionist Smotrich in charge of major posts in the administration of the West Bank and in the Defense Ministry.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-12-05/ty-article/.premium/far-right-defense-ministry-representative-will-call-west-bank-shots-at-militarys-expense/00000184-e172-da6e-a58f-f372fbfe0000
Yes, the guy who recently called for a second Nakba, because “Ben Gurion” didn’t finish the job.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-at-knesset-ben-gurion-should-have-finished-the-job-thrown-out-arabs/
Ok, I know this is a can of worms, but can anyone tell wtf is going on in Israel:
Netanyahu just put Relgious Zionist Smotrich in charge of major posts in the administration of the West Bank and in the Defense Ministry.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-12-05/ty-article/.premium/far-right-defense-ministry-representative-will-call-west-bank-shots-at-militarys-expense/00000184-e172-da6e-a58f-f372fbfe0000
Yes, the guy who recently called for a second Nakba, because “Ben Gurion” didn’t finish the job.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-at-knesset-ben-gurion-should-have-finished-the-job-thrown-out-arabs/
Ok, I know this is a can of worms, but can anyone tell wtf is going on in Israel:
Netanyahu just put Relgious Zionist Smotrich in charge of major posts in the administration of the West Bank and in the Defense Ministry.
Bibi is among the would-be autocrats who have opted to embrace the religious nationalist right as the path to power. Not least because, without them, he’s not in office. They having no objection to autocracy, as long as it gets them what they want.
Since he needs them, they’re in a position to push the limits of what the market will bear quite a ways. And, clearly, they have seized the moment.
Ok, I know this is a can of worms, but can anyone tell wtf is going on in Israel:
Netanyahu just put Relgious Zionist Smotrich in charge of major posts in the administration of the West Bank and in the Defense Ministry.
Bibi is among the would-be autocrats who have opted to embrace the religious nationalist right as the path to power. Not least because, without them, he’s not in office. They having no objection to autocracy, as long as it gets them what they want.
Since he needs them, they’re in a position to push the limits of what the market will bear quite a ways. And, clearly, they have seized the moment.
Every “never Trumper” Republican needs to send a letter to the RNC stating something along these lines:
Dear Sirs,
I have voted for Republicans my whole life (insert number of years here). I write to inform you that if Donald Trump is nominated to be the party’s standard bearer in 2024 that I shall vote straight Democratic Party ticket and donate (insert $ amount here) to the DNC.
This cannot endure.
Sincerely,
Every “never Trumper” Republican needs to send a letter to the RNC stating something along these lines:
Dear Sirs,
I have voted for Republicans my whole life (insert number of years here). I write to inform you that if Donald Trump is nominated to be the party’s standard bearer in 2024 that I shall vote straight Democratic Party ticket and donate (insert $ amount here) to the DNC.
This cannot endure.
Sincerely,
bobbyp: your link didn’t work. But if it was about his message to suspend the constitution, or indeed much else, I agree with every word.
wj – fixed the link. (There was an extra F in href.)
bobbyp: your link didn’t work. But if it was about his message to suspend the constitution, or indeed much else, I agree with every word.
wj – fixed the link. (There was an extra F in href.)
Fixed bobbyp’s link. But I expects it’s the wrong one, since it’s to a ObWi comment.
Fixed bobbyp’s link. But I expects it’s the wrong one, since it’s to a ObWi comment.
FYI, while I can find the RNC snail mail address, I’m not finding an email for them. You can contact them via their website . . . if you are willing to give them your email address and phone number. But do you really want a lifetime of spam emails and phone calls and texts messages?
FYI, while I can find the RNC snail mail address, I’m not finding an email for them. You can contact them via their website . . . if you are willing to give them your email address and phone number. But do you really want a lifetime of spam emails and phone calls and texts messages?
“while I can find the RNC snail mail address, I’m not finding an email for them.”
Try “Trump@rnc.ru”
“while I can find the RNC snail mail address, I’m not finding an email for them.”
Try “Trump@rnc.ru”
Trump’s rant illuminates our discussion about the limits of free speech. Absolutely, he or anyone should be able to argue that the constitution should be terminated to appoint them as dictator. But I see no value, and considerable harm, in allowing him to state as a fact that there was “massive fraud” in the election he lost, in the absence of any meaningful evidence to support the allegation.
Trump’s rant illuminates our discussion about the limits of free speech. Absolutely, he or anyone should be able to argue that the constitution should be terminated to appoint them as dictator. But I see no value, and considerable harm, in allowing him to state as a fact that there was “massive fraud” in the election he lost, in the absence of any meaningful evidence to support the allegation.
let’s try again:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/12/party-owned-by-donald-trump-fine-with-donald-trumps-call-to-end-american-democracy
wj,
my plea is addressed to GOP members in good standing who, I presume, are already signed up for a lifetime of spam, calls, and texts (my heart breaks). The only folks who can stop Trump from being renominated are Republican voters. The GOP suffers no consequences if the never Trumpers go into the voting both and vote for some obscure third party or take a pass on the presidential vote…only to go on to vote GOP down ballot.
let’s try again:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/12/party-owned-by-donald-trump-fine-with-donald-trumps-call-to-end-american-democracy
wj,
my plea is addressed to GOP members in good standing who, I presume, are already signed up for a lifetime of spam, calls, and texts (my heart breaks). The only folks who can stop Trump from being renominated are Republican voters. The GOP suffers no consequences if the never Trumpers go into the voting both and vote for some obscure third party or take a pass on the presidential vote…only to go on to vote GOP down ballot.
bobbyp: OK, writing other Republican office holders makes sense. I was just taking you literally about writing the RNC.
bobbyp: OK, writing other Republican office holders makes sense. I was just taking you literally about writing the RNC.
wj, I don’t think you’re reading very carefully.
As I read it, bobbyp never said anything about writing to other R office holders. He said to write to the RNC, the closest thing there is to a collective representative of the party, with the message that a voter who normally votes R should declare that they will no longer do that anywhere up or down the ticket if the party nominates Clickbait. Rather: “I shall vote straight Democratic Party ticket and donate (insert $ amount here) to the DNC.”
To sidetrack the topic with a warning about the resulting spam is to ignore the central point with a triviality.
The central point is that the R party should be told that if it nominates Clickbait, none of its other candidates will get any votes either. If people who have had enough of Clickbait nevertheless keep voting for other Rs up and down the ballot, the party’s power remains essentially intact — i.e., that same party that thinks it’s okay to nominate a treasonous lying criminal scumbag who wants to abandon the Constitution. That collective decision needs to have consequences beyond the possibility of Clickbait not getting elected again.
wj, I don’t think you’re reading very carefully.
As I read it, bobbyp never said anything about writing to other R office holders. He said to write to the RNC, the closest thing there is to a collective representative of the party, with the message that a voter who normally votes R should declare that they will no longer do that anywhere up or down the ticket if the party nominates Clickbait. Rather: “I shall vote straight Democratic Party ticket and donate (insert $ amount here) to the DNC.”
To sidetrack the topic with a warning about the resulting spam is to ignore the central point with a triviality.
The central point is that the R party should be told that if it nominates Clickbait, none of its other candidates will get any votes either. If people who have had enough of Clickbait nevertheless keep voting for other Rs up and down the ballot, the party’s power remains essentially intact — i.e., that same party that thinks it’s okay to nominate a treasonous lying criminal scumbag who wants to abandon the Constitution. That collective decision needs to have consequences beyond the possibility of Clickbait not getting elected again.
I, for one, don’t have my personal email address in the RNC files. (Although I do get a lot of their spam at my work email. No clue how they got that one.) And I’d just as soon keep it that way. Although you do make a good point that it might be a worthwhile price to pay in this case. I’ll have to think on that one.
I, for one, don’t have my personal email address in the RNC files. (Although I do get a lot of their spam at my work email. No clue how they got that one.) And I’d just as soon keep it that way. Although you do make a good point that it might be a worthwhile price to pay in this case. I’ll have to think on that one.
You could get a throwaway email address to be used only for purposes like this…. I have 2 gmail addresses that I have only ever used for purposes like this, i.e. where I don’t want endless spam contaminating my inbox.
Interestingly, I have given a little money now and then to D candidates via ActBlue (usually via BJ in turn), and I tend then to get a rash of email requests from other candidates, but so far unsubscribe has worked — not generally, but for each particular candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rs don’t honor unsubscribe, but who knows.
You could get a throwaway email address to be used only for purposes like this…. I have 2 gmail addresses that I have only ever used for purposes like this, i.e. where I don’t want endless spam contaminating my inbox.
Interestingly, I have given a little money now and then to D candidates via ActBlue (usually via BJ in turn), and I tend then to get a rash of email requests from other candidates, but so far unsubscribe has worked — not generally, but for each particular candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rs don’t honor unsubscribe, but who knows.
Lifetime tenure.
Alito jokes about Black kids in KKK outfits during Supreme Court argument
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3762724-alito-jokes-about-black-kids-in-kkk-outfits-during-supreme-court-argument/
Lifetime tenure.
Alito jokes about Black kids in KKK outfits during Supreme Court argument
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3762724-alito-jokes-about-black-kids-in-kkk-outfits-during-supreme-court-argument/
Trump’s rant illuminates our discussion about the limits of free speech. Absolutely, he or anyone should be able to argue that the constitution should be terminated to appoint them as dictator.
Completely agree, and with the rest of your comment too, Pro Bono. But this particular sentence reminds me of my favourite cartoon about a lot of the public reaction to Trump’s campaign from the 2016 election:
https://condenaststore.com/featured/he-tells-it-like-it-is-paul-noth.html
Trump’s rant illuminates our discussion about the limits of free speech. Absolutely, he or anyone should be able to argue that the constitution should be terminated to appoint them as dictator.
Completely agree, and with the rest of your comment too, Pro Bono. But this particular sentence reminds me of my favourite cartoon about a lot of the public reaction to Trump’s campaign from the 2016 election:
https://condenaststore.com/featured/he-tells-it-like-it-is-paul-noth.html
Republican voters didn’t think he’d eat THEM. And they voted for him because he promised to eat other people. I really think most people, including Republican voters, have had all along a pretty good idea about who Trump is. The problem is that Republican voters LIKE people like Trump. They’ll dump him now that he is a loser, but that has nothing to do with their need to find and worship a thuggish asshole who will smite others on their behalf. THey just don’t want o back a loser. DiSantis, here they come!
Republican voters didn’t think he’d eat THEM. And they voted for him because he promised to eat other people. I really think most people, including Republican voters, have had all along a pretty good idea about who Trump is. The problem is that Republican voters LIKE people like Trump. They’ll dump him now that he is a loser, but that has nothing to do with their need to find and worship a thuggish asshole who will smite others on their behalf. THey just don’t want o back a loser. DiSantis, here they come!
One of my neighbors seems to be headed toward some kind of breakdown over MAGA and TRUmp. We used to enjoy discussing politics until he started calling me a baby killer and started posting stuff on FB about how we need a civil war. He defines conservatives as people who have real true American values and then lists values that everyone has like “hard work” or values which conservatives do not have like “limited government.” He claims the attack on Congress was done by Antifa.
I cut off most communication with him when he called me a baby killer; however, we are still FB friends and can see each other’s posts. HIs posts have become vague moaning about how the whole world is a disaster and what, oh what, are we going to do? Pray for strength and endurance!
Of course, he’s a climate change denier so unaware of the real disaster the world is facing. Meanwhile, the only “disaster” the US is facing is Republicans got their asses kicked, election deniers are looking foolish, and Trump is a loser. Why is his brain melting over that?
Because the majority of Republican voters have very little interest in policy or programs or legislation. Or anything really except feeling like winners. They feel like winners by making others be losers. The definition of MAGA is “We won!” Their fundamental political belief is that they and they alone are legitimate Americans and rest of us need to either be Republicans or go to the back of the bus.
The disaster is that there are more of us than them and we are not going to sit at the back of the bus.
MAGAs really do disrespect the rest of us, and they will harm us if they can.
One of my neighbors seems to be headed toward some kind of breakdown over MAGA and TRUmp. We used to enjoy discussing politics until he started calling me a baby killer and started posting stuff on FB about how we need a civil war. He defines conservatives as people who have real true American values and then lists values that everyone has like “hard work” or values which conservatives do not have like “limited government.” He claims the attack on Congress was done by Antifa.
I cut off most communication with him when he called me a baby killer; however, we are still FB friends and can see each other’s posts. HIs posts have become vague moaning about how the whole world is a disaster and what, oh what, are we going to do? Pray for strength and endurance!
Of course, he’s a climate change denier so unaware of the real disaster the world is facing. Meanwhile, the only “disaster” the US is facing is Republicans got their asses kicked, election deniers are looking foolish, and Trump is a loser. Why is his brain melting over that?
Because the majority of Republican voters have very little interest in policy or programs or legislation. Or anything really except feeling like winners. They feel like winners by making others be losers. The definition of MAGA is “We won!” Their fundamental political belief is that they and they alone are legitimate Americans and rest of us need to either be Republicans or go to the back of the bus.
The disaster is that there are more of us than them and we are not going to sit at the back of the bus.
MAGAs really do disrespect the rest of us, and they will harm us if they can.
MAGAs really do disrespect the rest of us, and they will harm us if they can.
In short, in their minds we are “deplorables”. Or is that slot already taken…?
MAGAs really do disrespect the rest of us, and they will harm us if they can.
In short, in their minds we are “deplorables”. Or is that slot already taken…?
Nope, deplorable means something to lament (shed tears) about. If one finds someone deplorable, one pities him.
The only pity MAGAts have is self-pity (including for being pitied). They want others to shed tears. The more extreme want to shed other people’s blood.
Nope, deplorable means something to lament (shed tears) about. If one finds someone deplorable, one pities him.
The only pity MAGAts have is self-pity (including for being pitied). They want others to shed tears. The more extreme want to shed other people’s blood.
wj, that’s a fine summary of what’s happening, it’s just so depressing..
I guess I’m longing for the days long gone when there was at least a pretense to come to some sort of a practical solution by the means of statecraft, but all we have now is some corrupt autocrat trying to save his own skin by any means (cf. Trump).
wj, that’s a fine summary of what’s happening, it’s just so depressing..
I guess I’m longing for the days long gone when there was at least a pretense to come to some sort of a practical solution by the means of statecraft, but all we have now is some corrupt autocrat trying to save his own skin by any means (cf. Trump).
Some useful context for Alito’s bizarre comments.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/303-creative-gay-rights-free-speech-supreme-court.html
I hadn’t realised quite how manufactured a case this one is.
Some useful context for Alito’s bizarre comments.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/303-creative-gay-rights-free-speech-supreme-court.html
I hadn’t realised quite how manufactured a case this one is.
From Nigel’s link:
From Nigel’s link:
So no one is making her say anything or preventing her from saying anything in this “free speech” case. They’re just saying that once the words she already – of her own volition – produced are publicly for sale, she has to sell them to people regardless of however those people identify themselves (at least within identities constituting protected classes).
We’re just not getting this whole “reeducation camp” thing right, my fellow liberal tyrants. Do better!
So no one is making her say anything or preventing her from saying anything in this “free speech” case. They’re just saying that once the words she already – of her own volition – produced are publicly for sale, she has to sell them to people regardless of however those people identify themselves (at least within identities constituting protected classes).
We’re just not getting this whole “reeducation camp” thing right, my fellow liberal tyrants. Do better!
This is on point.
I’m always surprised that nearly all religious liberty cases seem to focus on denying LGBTQ people things that most other people can get: a website designed, a cake baked, a job offered. Moreover, few cases focus on far more basic religious beliefs that could be offended.
https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1599872923795279872
There’s no real cause of action. It’s a case which shouldn’t have come before the court, and the comments of Alito et al show that they have no real interest in dispensing justice.
They are just legislating the prejudices from the bench
This is on point.
I’m always surprised that nearly all religious liberty cases seem to focus on denying LGBTQ people things that most other people can get: a website designed, a cake baked, a job offered. Moreover, few cases focus on far more basic religious beliefs that could be offended.
https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1599872923795279872
There’s no real cause of action. It’s a case which shouldn’t have come before the court, and the comments of Alito et al show that they have no real interest in dispensing justice.
They are just legislating the prejudices from the bench
Missed this.
Fnckin Alito.
…Maybe Justice Kagan will also be familiar with the next website I’m going to mention, AshleyMadison.com …” “I’m not suggesting,” Alito chuckled. “She knows a lot of things.”…
Missed this.
Fnckin Alito.
…Maybe Justice Kagan will also be familiar with the next website I’m going to mention, AshleyMadison.com …” “I’m not suggesting,” Alito chuckled. “She knows a lot of things.”…
Nigel — thanks for that link. Interesting that it’s by a Jesuit. (Go Ignatius? I have a friend who’s a Jesuit…whom, I like to think, I helped bring around to sanity on gay stuff.)
Interesting also, to me, that he is making an argument that I made over and over again during the various gay rights referenda in Maine: Why aren’t they having hissy fits about having to serve people who eat meat on Fridays? What if Buddhist vegetarians decided not to serve Christians because they eat meat sometimes? (And of course much more salient things relating to religious beliefs than food.)
Blah blah.
Also, I have watched only a very few minutes of Alito giving a speech (my son keeps urging me to watch the entirety of his speech before the Federal Society a couple of years ago…), and I’ve read snippets like this sneering crap from yesterday, and I think he is the sickest puppy of the bunch. It is just amazing, and terrifying, that a person with such a horribly twisted mind is in the position he’s in. In a way it bothers me more than Clickbait… There’s the same “saying the quiet parts out loud” thing, but it’s it’s more like the Inquisition than an out of control carnival huckster.
Nigel — thanks for that link. Interesting that it’s by a Jesuit. (Go Ignatius? I have a friend who’s a Jesuit…whom, I like to think, I helped bring around to sanity on gay stuff.)
Interesting also, to me, that he is making an argument that I made over and over again during the various gay rights referenda in Maine: Why aren’t they having hissy fits about having to serve people who eat meat on Fridays? What if Buddhist vegetarians decided not to serve Christians because they eat meat sometimes? (And of course much more salient things relating to religious beliefs than food.)
Blah blah.
Also, I have watched only a very few minutes of Alito giving a speech (my son keeps urging me to watch the entirety of his speech before the Federal Society a couple of years ago…), and I’ve read snippets like this sneering crap from yesterday, and I think he is the sickest puppy of the bunch. It is just amazing, and terrifying, that a person with such a horribly twisted mind is in the position he’s in. In a way it bothers me more than Clickbait… There’s the same “saying the quiet parts out loud” thing, but it’s it’s more like the Inquisition than an out of control carnival huckster.
Alito’s speech, for anyone who thinks they can stand it.
Alito’s speech, for anyone who thinks they can stand it.
Freedom of Religion American Style means so-called Christians get to control women’s bodies and discriminate against all who exhibit any form of gender-nonconformance.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
Freedom of Religion American Style means so-called Christians get to control women’s bodies and discriminate against all who exhibit any form of gender-nonconformance.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
I don’t think so either. There is simply no concept of mutuality. There is no freedom “from” (their) religion, for anyone. There is potentially punishment for everyone who doesn’t conform to their rules. There is an implied and to some extent still real hijacking of the machinery of the state to impose their rules.
Funny, though, I say all that and then I have to come back to the fact that most of the rules that matter in this formulation are the ones having to do with sex and gender. Too many people are just fucking terrified of letting anyone outside the lines in relation to those areas of life.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
I don’t think so either. There is simply no concept of mutuality. There is no freedom “from” (their) religion, for anyone. There is potentially punishment for everyone who doesn’t conform to their rules. There is an implied and to some extent still real hijacking of the machinery of the state to impose their rules.
Funny, though, I say all that and then I have to come back to the fact that most of the rules that matter in this formulation are the ones having to do with sex and gender. Too many people are just fucking terrified of letting anyone outside the lines in relation to those areas of life.
But even that’s not right, because many of the people who would like to impose their rules about sex and gender on the rest of us violate their own rules with regularity (adultery, closet homosexuality, serial monogamy, not-missionary-position sex with a member of the other gender). The *really* bad thing isn’t *doing* that stuff, it’s saying that it’s okay.
But even that’s not right, because many of the people who would like to impose their rules about sex and gender on the rest of us violate their own rules with regularity (adultery, closet homosexuality, serial monogamy, not-missionary-position sex with a member of the other gender). The *really* bad thing isn’t *doing* that stuff, it’s saying that it’s okay.
One of things I used to point out (and probably did point out, in an op-ed or two back in the referenda days) is that you do not get to sacrifice a virgin in the public square these days in the name of “freedom of religion.” The so-called “freedom” is not absolute
Also, it applies to everyone. Yes, that probably creates some gray areas where people’s rights come into conflict, as does every single aspect of living together in the public square.
But we’re not talking about the fringes here. We’re talking, as hsh points out, about the most intimate and private aspects of human life: whether to bear a child, with whom to share intimacy.
It is none of their damned business.
There are people — some (but not of course all) of them in Texas — who would like to criminalize going out of state for an abortion, or helping people do that:
So — not only making laws to control people within state lines, but making laws to control what people do with their bodies when they’re not even in Texas’s jurisdiction.
Our bodies are not ourselves, they’re not even ours.
One of things I used to point out (and probably did point out, in an op-ed or two back in the referenda days) is that you do not get to sacrifice a virgin in the public square these days in the name of “freedom of religion.” The so-called “freedom” is not absolute
Also, it applies to everyone. Yes, that probably creates some gray areas where people’s rights come into conflict, as does every single aspect of living together in the public square.
But we’re not talking about the fringes here. We’re talking, as hsh points out, about the most intimate and private aspects of human life: whether to bear a child, with whom to share intimacy.
It is none of their damned business.
There are people — some (but not of course all) of them in Texas — who would like to criminalize going out of state for an abortion, or helping people do that:
So — not only making laws to control people within state lines, but making laws to control what people do with their bodies when they’re not even in Texas’s jurisdiction.
Our bodies are not ourselves, they’re not even ours.
Some useful context for Alito’s bizarre comments.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/303-creative-gay-rights-free-speech-supreme-court.html
I hadn’t realised quite how manufactured a case this one is.
Basically, Aloto is coming out of the closet (not that he ever appeared that far in) as the raging bigot that he is.
As for the case getting on the Court’s calendar, when so many do not. Well, all it takes is 4 Justices agreeing to hear the case. When we’ve got 3 political hacks and a couple ideologues, it seems we will be seeing a lot more opportunities to legislate from the bench appearing. I just hope too many legitimate cases don’t get shoved aside to make room.
Some useful context for Alito’s bizarre comments.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/303-creative-gay-rights-free-speech-supreme-court.html
I hadn’t realised quite how manufactured a case this one is.
Basically, Aloto is coming out of the closet (not that he ever appeared that far in) as the raging bigot that he is.
As for the case getting on the Court’s calendar, when so many do not. Well, all it takes is 4 Justices agreeing to hear the case. When we’ve got 3 political hacks and a couple ideologues, it seems we will be seeing a lot more opportunities to legislate from the bench appearing. I just hope too many legitimate cases don’t get shoved aside to make room.
The central tenet of a lot of fundamentalist evangelical christianity (of the Focus on the Family school) is patriarchy. Everything else in the worldview goes through that.
And it’s a hopelessly shallow and ahistorical understanding of family at that.
The central tenet of a lot of fundamentalist evangelical christianity (of the Focus on the Family school) is patriarchy. Everything else in the worldview goes through that.
And it’s a hopelessly shallow and ahistorical understanding of family at that.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
I don’t think so either. There is simply no concept of mutuality. There is no freedom “from” (their) religion, for anyone. There is potentially punishment for everyone who doesn’t conform to their rules.
I’m wondering how successful they will have to be (God forbid!) for the coalition of evangelicals and conservative Catholics to fracture over doctrinal differences. Those differences were enough, not that many centuries ago, to spark major wars in Europe. And both factions have enough guns to skip the get-the-government-on-my-exact-doctrine step and go straight to kill-the-heretics. Probably even skipping the rest of us in pursuit of purity. Sort of like primarying someone who can win, but isn’t pure, to get a losing candidate.
Am I being too dramatic? I don’t think so.
I don’t think so either. There is simply no concept of mutuality. There is no freedom “from” (their) religion, for anyone. There is potentially punishment for everyone who doesn’t conform to their rules.
I’m wondering how successful they will have to be (God forbid!) for the coalition of evangelicals and conservative Catholics to fracture over doctrinal differences. Those differences were enough, not that many centuries ago, to spark major wars in Europe. And both factions have enough guns to skip the get-the-government-on-my-exact-doctrine step and go straight to kill-the-heretics. Probably even skipping the rest of us in pursuit of purity. Sort of like primarying someone who can win, but isn’t pure, to get a losing candidate.
So — not only making laws to control people within state lines, but making laws to control what people do with their bodies when they’re not even in Texas’s jurisdiction.
I’m waiting for the first time someone merely changing planes in Texas, who doesn’t even live there and never has, gets arrested for once upon a time having had an abortion somewhere else.
Because, given how much people move house, it’s hard to distinguish between someone going out of state for that purpose and someone who just happens to move temporarily. Do they set a threshold for how long you were gone?
So — not only making laws to control people within state lines, but making laws to control what people do with their bodies when they’re not even in Texas’s jurisdiction.
I’m waiting for the first time someone merely changing planes in Texas, who doesn’t even live there and never has, gets arrested for once upon a time having had an abortion somewhere else.
Because, given how much people move house, it’s hard to distinguish between someone going out of state for that purpose and someone who just happens to move temporarily. Do they set a threshold for how long you were gone?
Those differences were enough, not that many centuries ago, to spark major wars in Europe.
Yes. The christian nationalists are doing their best to roll back the liberality of the Enlightenment state. They want to stamp out secularism. And they are ignorant enough of the actual history to know what that would look like (or unimaginative enough not to consider what it would be like to actually live in such a world).
This is what the far right in Hungary and Poland have been after and it is the romantic ideal of a lot of the religious right here as well. Hence the love being showered upon Orban at CPAC and the like.
Those differences were enough, not that many centuries ago, to spark major wars in Europe.
Yes. The christian nationalists are doing their best to roll back the liberality of the Enlightenment state. They want to stamp out secularism. And they are ignorant enough of the actual history to know what that would look like (or unimaginative enough not to consider what it would be like to actually live in such a world).
This is what the far right in Hungary and Poland have been after and it is the romantic ideal of a lot of the religious right here as well. Hence the love being showered upon Orban at CPAC and the like.
The christian nationalists are doing their best to roll back the liberality of the Enlightenment state. They want to stamp out secularism.
It’s secularism now. But how soon do they refocus on heresy — i.e. doctrinal differences among different (Christian) sects?
And how hysterical will the evangelicals be when they pick up on the fact that most of the conservatives on the Court aren’t evangelicals but Catholics. Oh, the horror! The whole court-packing thing to do over.
The christian nationalists are doing their best to roll back the liberality of the Enlightenment state. They want to stamp out secularism.
It’s secularism now. But how soon do they refocus on heresy — i.e. doctrinal differences among different (Christian) sects?
And how hysterical will the evangelicals be when they pick up on the fact that most of the conservatives on the Court aren’t evangelicals but Catholics. Oh, the horror! The whole court-packing thing to do over.
One thing at a time…
One thing at a time…
House January 6 committee has decided to make criminal referrals, chairman says
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/january-6-committee-criminal-referrals/index.html
House January 6 committee has decided to make criminal referrals, chairman says
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/january-6-committee-criminal-referrals/index.html
Rambling here, but I remember Gregory Bateson writing something (maybe in “Steps to an Ecology of Mind”) about how Catholics and Marxists were the only people who paid any attention to history these days.
The vague connection I’m making is that there is a strand of Catholicism that hugely values education (look at the Jesuits). If there’s any strand of evangelicalism that hugely values education, I haven’t heard of it. No, Liberty University doesn’t count. A lot would have to change before the obsessive credentialism that gets people onto SCOTUS relaxes enough to let a bunch of evangelicals replace the current crop.
Also, what nous said: one thing at a time. Skipping over the mess we’re in now in hopes of the far right eating each other alive after they’ve ground the rest of us into dust is . . . getting just a little ahead of ourselves.
Rambling here, but I remember Gregory Bateson writing something (maybe in “Steps to an Ecology of Mind”) about how Catholics and Marxists were the only people who paid any attention to history these days.
The vague connection I’m making is that there is a strand of Catholicism that hugely values education (look at the Jesuits). If there’s any strand of evangelicalism that hugely values education, I haven’t heard of it. No, Liberty University doesn’t count. A lot would have to change before the obsessive credentialism that gets people onto SCOTUS relaxes enough to let a bunch of evangelicals replace the current crop.
Also, what nous said: one thing at a time. Skipping over the mess we’re in now in hopes of the far right eating each other alive after they’ve ground the rest of us into dust is . . . getting just a little ahead of ourselves.
A lot would have to change before the obsessive credentialism that gets people onto SCOTUS relaxes enough to let a bunch of evangelicals replace the current crop.
At the risk of trashing my reputation for optimism, not all that much. The same criteria, the same Federalist Society “credentials”, and the same Senate confirmations got us folks like Aileen Cannon, who is hearing the Mar-a-Lago case. You know, people that the bar association rated (accurately) “unqualified.”
A lot would have to change before the obsessive credentialism that gets people onto SCOTUS relaxes enough to let a bunch of evangelicals replace the current crop.
At the risk of trashing my reputation for optimism, not all that much. The same criteria, the same Federalist Society “credentials”, and the same Senate confirmations got us folks like Aileen Cannon, who is hearing the Mar-a-Lago case. You know, people that the bar association rated (accurately) “unqualified.”
If you are looking for something resembling an intellectual tradition amongst evangelicals, then you are probably looking at Calvin University, Wheaton College, or Moody Bible Institute.
This is not an endorsement, just a report of reputation.
If you are looking for something resembling an intellectual tradition amongst evangelicals, then you are probably looking at Calvin University, Wheaton College, or Moody Bible Institute.
This is not an endorsement, just a report of reputation.
wj, I was making a very rough point about how much the various religious factions value education. Cannon went to Duke and the UMichigan Law School, both of which are among the best schools in the country. (For certain values of “best.”) She is certainly not a counter to my framing of SCOTUS candidates as coming from devotees of “credentialism.”
As an aside, it’s not clear from her wiki page what her religious affiliation is, if any.
wj, I was making a very rough point about how much the various religious factions value education. Cannon went to Duke and the UMichigan Law School, both of which are among the best schools in the country. (For certain values of “best.”) She is certainly not a counter to my framing of SCOTUS candidates as coming from devotees of “credentialism.”
As an aside, it’s not clear from her wiki page what her religious affiliation is, if any.
Okay, and yes, i was making a point about who gets onto SCOTUS. I think it’s at a different level of scrutiny than district court judges.
YMMV, and obviously does.
Okay, and yes, i was making a point about who gets onto SCOTUS. I think it’s at a different level of scrutiny than district court judges.
YMMV, and obviously does.
If you are looking for the political influence of evangelicalism in academia, however, look to Liberty, Regents, Hillsdale, and Claremont.
If you are looking for the political influence of evangelicalism in academia, however, look to Liberty, Regents, Hillsdale, and Claremont.
Related:
We don’t already have an elite society?
Anyhow, then we got Ketanji Brown Jackson. Harvard all the way.
Related:
We don’t already have an elite society?
Anyhow, then we got Ketanji Brown Jackson. Harvard all the way.
I have gone back to find the Bateson quote, and it’s in “Mind and Nature,” not “Steps.” If I had time I’d copy it in here, if only for the fun of what nous would say about it. 🙂
Unfortunately, there’s no eBook version. Maybe later. But it certainly takes me vividly back to a certain point in my intellectual “development,” in this case something that I was doing on my own, outside any classroom….
I have gone back to find the Bateson quote, and it’s in “Mind and Nature,” not “Steps.” If I had time I’d copy it in here, if only for the fun of what nous would say about it. 🙂
Unfortunately, there’s no eBook version. Maybe later. But it certainly takes me vividly back to a certain point in my intellectual “development,” in this case something that I was doing on my own, outside any classroom….
Anyhow, then we got Ketanji Brown Jackson. Harvard all the way.
At least Jackson had been a defense attorney instead of a prosecutor.
Anyhow, then we got Ketanji Brown Jackson. Harvard all the way.
At least Jackson had been a defense attorney instead of a prosecutor.
This looks like it might be the bit that JanieM is referencing from Mind and Nature:
I have taught various branches of behavioral biology and cultural anthropology to American students, ranging from college freshmen to psychiatric residents, in various schools and teaching hospitals, and I have encountered a very strange gap in their thinking that springs from a lack of certain tools of thought. This lack is rather equally distributed at all levels of education, among students of both sexes and among humanists as well as scientists. Specifically, it is lack of knowledge of the presuppositions not only of science but also of everyday life.
This gap is, strangely, less conspicuous in two groups of students that might have been expected to contrast strongly with each other: the Catholics and the Marxists. Both groups have thought about or have been told a little about the last 2,500 years of human thought, and both groups have some recognition of the importance of philosophic, scientific, and epistemological presuppositions. Both groups are difficult to teach because they attach such great importance to “right” premises and presuppositions that heresy becomes for them a threat of excommunication. Naturally, anybody who feels heresy to be a danger will devote some care to being conscious of his or her own presuppositions and will develop a sort of connoisseurship in these matters.
I think it telling that the intellectual right is so taken with Leo Strauss and his defense of revelation as a counterbalance to reason.
Evangelicals as a whole have difficulty with the reason/revelation conundrum, and Francis Schaeffer was little help for them with resolving that. Without a serious attitude towards hermeneutics the whole enterprise devolves into curve fitting at some point. Literalism is their most cherished idolatry.
This looks like it might be the bit that JanieM is referencing from Mind and Nature:
I have taught various branches of behavioral biology and cultural anthropology to American students, ranging from college freshmen to psychiatric residents, in various schools and teaching hospitals, and I have encountered a very strange gap in their thinking that springs from a lack of certain tools of thought. This lack is rather equally distributed at all levels of education, among students of both sexes and among humanists as well as scientists. Specifically, it is lack of knowledge of the presuppositions not only of science but also of everyday life.
This gap is, strangely, less conspicuous in two groups of students that might have been expected to contrast strongly with each other: the Catholics and the Marxists. Both groups have thought about or have been told a little about the last 2,500 years of human thought, and both groups have some recognition of the importance of philosophic, scientific, and epistemological presuppositions. Both groups are difficult to teach because they attach such great importance to “right” premises and presuppositions that heresy becomes for them a threat of excommunication. Naturally, anybody who feels heresy to be a danger will devote some care to being conscious of his or her own presuppositions and will develop a sort of connoisseurship in these matters.
I think it telling that the intellectual right is so taken with Leo Strauss and his defense of revelation as a counterbalance to reason.
Evangelicals as a whole have difficulty with the reason/revelation conundrum, and Francis Schaeffer was little help for them with resolving that. Without a serious attitude towards hermeneutics the whole enterprise devolves into curve fitting at some point. Literalism is their most cherished idolatry.
Thanks, nous, that is the passage. Is it fair to say that what he is calling “presuppositions,” a lot of people now call “priors”? (I have never taken a philosophy class.)
Thanks, nous, that is the passage. Is it fair to say that what he is calling “presuppositions,” a lot of people now call “priors”? (I have never taken a philosophy class.)
That’s more of a question for someone like Hilzoy than for me. I took it to refer to a notion of a grand historical metanarrative, which I’m sure many on either side of his Catholic/Marxist divide might exercise themselves to qualify, but both really do make use of those long narrative arcs in their apologetics.
That’s more of a question for someone like Hilzoy than for me. I took it to refer to a notion of a grand historical metanarrative, which I’m sure many on either side of his Catholic/Marxist divide might exercise themselves to qualify, but both really do make use of those long narrative arcs in their apologetics.
Trump Organization found guilty on all counts of criminal tax fraud
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html
Trump Organization found guilty on all counts of criminal tax fraud
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html
Literalism is their most cherished idolatry.
Funny, I came in from outdoors and read the comment quickly, and it first I read it as “liberalism.” LOL.
Literalism is their most cherished idolatry.
Funny, I came in from outdoors and read the comment quickly, and it first I read it as “liberalism.” LOL.
it first -> at first
it first -> at first
about how Catholics and Marxists were the only people who paid any attention to history these days
This made me laugh with pleasure, and I like Janie’s half-remembered formulation better than the original.
I thought when he said One thing at a time… nous was actually speaking in the voice of the evangelicals, who need to finish their current job transforming America before starting on the court-packing project wj was referring to.
about how Catholics and Marxists were the only people who paid any attention to history these days
This made me laugh with pleasure, and I like Janie’s half-remembered formulation better than the original.
I thought when he said One thing at a time… nous was actually speaking in the voice of the evangelicals, who need to finish their current job transforming America before starting on the court-packing project wj was referring to.
I thought when he said One thing at a time… nous was actually speaking in the voice of the evangelicals,
Catholics and evangelicals both. No sense in splitting hairs over who counts as christian when there are so many heathens to overcome first.
I thought when he said One thing at a time… nous was actually speaking in the voice of the evangelicals,
Catholics and evangelicals both. No sense in splitting hairs over who counts as christian when there are so many heathens to overcome first.
And I was running with it in relation to wj’s prediction that they might break into factions once they’d subjugated the rest of us. It will be no consolation (though I probably won’t be alive) to see them fracture, presuming that they won’t fracture until their alliance has crushed the rest of us. Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
And I was running with it in relation to wj’s prediction that they might break into factions once they’d subjugated the rest of us. It will be no consolation (though I probably won’t be alive) to see them fracture, presuming that they won’t fracture until their alliance has crushed the rest of us. Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
That Bateson quote fascinates and tickles me. It makes sense that the two groups who “think historically” would be Marxists and Catholics.
Catholics do because, well, they’re the oldest of the Christian sects and, for most of the Christian Era, the most powerful. So they have a lot of history to be thoughtful about.
Marxists are trained to think in terms of the Materialist Dialectic, which demands thinking of and about history. I don’t know if Marx was the first to link history with socio-economic change, and analyze on an arc-of-centuries basis, but he’s the first person I heard of who did. A Marxist might get a lot of things wrong, but at least they’re trying to base their arguments in something more robust than “because God says so.”
I’m Jewish, and instantly wondered about whether and how Jews think in historical terms, historical patterns. Many Jews have – Marx, of course; and Spinoza come immediately to mind – but the problem with historical-based analysis for Jews is that our history is one long catalog of oppression, where no matter what Jews do or don’t do, the tides always turn against us. Which kind of discourages using historical analytical thought on a collective basis.
That Bateson quote fascinates and tickles me. It makes sense that the two groups who “think historically” would be Marxists and Catholics.
Catholics do because, well, they’re the oldest of the Christian sects and, for most of the Christian Era, the most powerful. So they have a lot of history to be thoughtful about.
Marxists are trained to think in terms of the Materialist Dialectic, which demands thinking of and about history. I don’t know if Marx was the first to link history with socio-economic change, and analyze on an arc-of-centuries basis, but he’s the first person I heard of who did. A Marxist might get a lot of things wrong, but at least they’re trying to base their arguments in something more robust than “because God says so.”
I’m Jewish, and instantly wondered about whether and how Jews think in historical terms, historical patterns. Many Jews have – Marx, of course; and Spinoza come immediately to mind – but the problem with historical-based analysis for Jews is that our history is one long catalog of oppression, where no matter what Jews do or don’t do, the tides always turn against us. Which kind of discourages using historical analytical thought on a collective basis.
Might I be permitted to assist?
“I have taught various branches of behavioral biology and cultural anthropology to American students, ranging from college freshmen to psychiatric residents, in various schools and teaching hospitals, and I have encountered a very strange gap in their thinking that springs from a lack of certain tools of thought. This lack is rather equal!y distributed at all levels of education, among students of both sexes and among humanists as well as scientists. Specifically, it is lack of knowledge of the presuppositions not only of science but also of everyday life.
“This gap is, strangely, less conspicuous in two groups of students that might have been expected to contrast strongly with each other: the Catholics and the Marxists. Both groups have thought about or have been told a little about the last 2,500 years of human thought, and both groups have some recognition of the importance of philosophic, scientific, and epistemological presuppositions. Both groups are difficult to teach because they attach such great importance to ‘right’ premises and presuppositions that heresy becomes for them a threat of excommunication. Naturally, anybody who feels heresy to be a danger will devote some care to being conscious of his or her own presuppositions and will develop a sort of connoisseurship in these matters.
“Those who lack all idea that it is possible to be wrong can learn nothing except know-how.”
Might I be permitted to assist?
“I have taught various branches of behavioral biology and cultural anthropology to American students, ranging from college freshmen to psychiatric residents, in various schools and teaching hospitals, and I have encountered a very strange gap in their thinking that springs from a lack of certain tools of thought. This lack is rather equal!y distributed at all levels of education, among students of both sexes and among humanists as well as scientists. Specifically, it is lack of knowledge of the presuppositions not only of science but also of everyday life.
“This gap is, strangely, less conspicuous in two groups of students that might have been expected to contrast strongly with each other: the Catholics and the Marxists. Both groups have thought about or have been told a little about the last 2,500 years of human thought, and both groups have some recognition of the importance of philosophic, scientific, and epistemological presuppositions. Both groups are difficult to teach because they attach such great importance to ‘right’ premises and presuppositions that heresy becomes for them a threat of excommunication. Naturally, anybody who feels heresy to be a danger will devote some care to being conscious of his or her own presuppositions and will develop a sort of connoisseurship in these matters.
“Those who lack all idea that it is possible to be wrong can learn nothing except know-how.”
Nice to see that Bateson is on our shelves. 🙂
Nice to see that Bateson is on our shelves. 🙂
Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
Hard agree.
“Those who lack all idea that it is possible to be wrong can learn nothing except know-how.”
If that.
Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
Hard agree.
“Those who lack all idea that it is possible to be wrong can learn nothing except know-how.”
If that.
Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
Clearly what we need is a case of an evangelical baker refusing to make a cake for a Catholic wedding. Or vis versa, of course. On the grounds that the only real wedding is one done by his particular sect.
Let’s stop them from crushing the rest of us in the first place. I.e., “one thing at a time” has meaning for both sides.
Clearly what we need is a case of an evangelical baker refusing to make a cake for a Catholic wedding. Or vis versa, of course. On the grounds that the only real wedding is one done by his particular sect.
A while back, when Typepad.com was having all sorts of problems, JanieM brought up the subject of a catastrophic failure that would lose all of the Obsidian Wings content forever. This thought disturbed me. A fairly quick check demonstrated that most of the content could be recovered from the Wayback Machine, although there would be gaps.
Typepad eventually got most of their act back together. The “export database” function did not, and still does not work. But with the server up and stable, I thought to myself, “Making a copy is amenable to brute force.” At times in my life I was notorious for that. To quote one of my grad school professors, when walking around the room handing back people’s homework, and remarking on anything unusual they might have done, paused behind me, “And Mike, of course, simply beat the problem to death with a computer.”
Some amount of scripting later, I have a complete copy of the site’s posts and comments on my desktop machine. Stored in a format most blog software will import, should it come to that. With enough stuff that I can run incremental updates and upload all of it into the cloud to a place where JanieM can copy it.
It’s always tempting to do things with a big pile of data. Say, answer the question of are the most prolific writers and commenters, going back to November 2003, when Moe Lane set it up. (Side note: Most of the “SuperUser” posts are Moe’s. Others have used that account to post things. I added a bit of code to pick up bylines if they appear and correct the post author.) As of sometime this morning,
A while back, when Typepad.com was having all sorts of problems, JanieM brought up the subject of a catastrophic failure that would lose all of the Obsidian Wings content forever. This thought disturbed me. A fairly quick check demonstrated that most of the content could be recovered from the Wayback Machine, although there would be gaps.
Typepad eventually got most of their act back together. The “export database” function did not, and still does not work. But with the server up and stable, I thought to myself, “Making a copy is amenable to brute force.” At times in my life I was notorious for that. To quote one of my grad school professors, when walking around the room handing back people’s homework, and remarking on anything unusual they might have done, paused behind me, “And Mike, of course, simply beat the problem to death with a computer.”
Some amount of scripting later, I have a complete copy of the site’s posts and comments on my desktop machine. Stored in a format most blog software will import, should it come to that. With enough stuff that I can run incremental updates and upload all of it into the cloud to a place where JanieM can copy it.
It’s always tempting to do things with a big pile of data. Say, answer the question of are the most prolific writers and commenters, going back to November 2003, when Moe Lane set it up. (Side note: Most of the “SuperUser” posts are Moe’s. Others have used that account to post things. I added a bit of code to pick up bylines if they appear and correct the post author.) As of sometime this morning,
Baby steps.
Baby steps.
At times in my life I was notorious for that. To quote one of my grad school professors, when walking around the room handing back people’s homework, and remarking on anything unusual they might have done, paused behind me, “And Mike, of course, simply beat the problem to death with a computer.”
It is startling how many problems are amenable to the BFMI** approach.
** BFMI: Brute Force and Massive Ignorance. (NB: not suitable for human interactions.)
At times in my life I was notorious for that. To quote one of my grad school professors, when walking around the room handing back people’s homework, and remarking on anything unusual they might have done, paused behind me, “And Mike, of course, simply beat the problem to death with a computer.”
It is startling how many problems are amenable to the BFMI** approach.
** BFMI: Brute Force and Massive Ignorance. (NB: not suitable for human interactions.)
Clearly have some catching up to do.
Clearly have some catching up to do.
I wonder if you add John Thullen’s comments to Count’s how much he moves up the list. There was also the relatively short-lived nooneithinkisinmytree (or something like that) handle. That guy was a one-man thread at times, often much to the annoyance of many.
I wonder if you add John Thullen’s comments to Count’s how much he moves up the list. There was also the relatively short-lived nooneithinkisinmytree (or something like that) handle. That guy was a one-man thread at times, often much to the annoyance of many.
Michael Cain – that’s fascinating. I find it astonishing that I make the list of 20 most prolific commenters! Further to the subject of your beating the problem to death with a computer, will we ever get the Archives (by date, that used to be underneath Recent Posts) back? I didn’t use it often, but when I wanted to it was useful.
bobbyp: baby steps indeed, but encouraging. I hope it’s getting a lot of coverage in the US.
Apart from that, fingers crossed for Georgia.
Michael Cain – that’s fascinating. I find it astonishing that I make the list of 20 most prolific commenters! Further to the subject of your beating the problem to death with a computer, will we ever get the Archives (by date, that used to be underneath Recent Posts) back? I didn’t use it often, but when I wanted to it was useful.
bobbyp: baby steps indeed, but encouraging. I hope it’s getting a lot of coverage in the US.
Apart from that, fingers crossed for Georgia.
hsh: good point. He has to be way up there.
hsh: good point. He has to be way up there.
Also, I’m on the list at 2245 comments. Looking manually, the first one in 2004. This seems hard to believe.
Also, I’m on the list at 2245 comments. Looking manually, the first one in 2004. This seems hard to believe.
corrected.
corrected.
I had to write some code in school, but what Michael Cain describes and does seems like wizardry to me.
I had to write some code in school, but what Michael Cain describes and does seems like wizardry to me.
And Mike, of course, simply
beat the problem to death withused a computer.corrected.
Almost 45 years ago. Computer time was still expensive*. They wanted to teach clever tricks so that problems could be solved by hand. Or at least, without using much computer time. At least once, after I had beat the problem to death, the prof tossed me the whiteboard marker and said, “Your approach with the computer was really clever, and generally applicable. You get to do the lecture today.” In the long run, this was not a great strategy. In the short term, companies would pay handsomely for solving the problem(s) within the computer constraints of the day.
* Amongst certain people, I was also known for stealing time. In graduate school at that point, in that program, everyone else was using time provided by the engineering school, who were miserly with it. The head of the Sociology Department had given me unlimited permissions on that department’s DEC mainframe. There’s a certain satisfaction to being clever. But a graduate student’s hours are always in short supply, so given free cycles, sometimes I just substituted brute force for cleverness.
And Mike, of course, simply
beat the problem to death withused a computer.corrected.
Almost 45 years ago. Computer time was still expensive*. They wanted to teach clever tricks so that problems could be solved by hand. Or at least, without using much computer time. At least once, after I had beat the problem to death, the prof tossed me the whiteboard marker and said, “Your approach with the computer was really clever, and generally applicable. You get to do the lecture today.” In the long run, this was not a great strategy. In the short term, companies would pay handsomely for solving the problem(s) within the computer constraints of the day.
* Amongst certain people, I was also known for stealing time. In graduate school at that point, in that program, everyone else was using time provided by the engineering school, who were miserly with it. The head of the Sociology Department had given me unlimited permissions on that department’s DEC mainframe. There’s a certain satisfaction to being clever. But a graduate student’s hours are always in short supply, so given free cycles, sometimes I just substituted brute force for cleverness.
I have started hanging out at Balloon Juice and you see the result.
Michael, I hope you understand I meant that as a compliment.
Nowadays brute force is often a sensible choice as computers are so much faster and cheaper. There are still problems, though, that require finesse.
I have started hanging out at Balloon Juice and you see the result.
Michael, I hope you understand I meant that as a compliment.
Nowadays brute force is often a sensible choice as computers are so much faster and cheaper. There are still problems, though, that require finesse.
My takeaway is that I talk too much
My takeaway is that I talk too much
Oh, russell!
Oh, russell!
Michael – that’s great stuff. Very fun to poke around in those #s and lists.
Your story about “stealing time” reminds me of a story of my own….
Margaret “Scotty” MacVicar was already a legend at MIT when I started there in 1968; she founded the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program shortly after that. I did a couple of UROP projects, for one of which I applied for and got funds for a card that gave me borrowing privileges and a stack pass to the legendary Widener Library at Harvard.
As the wiki page says, it has “57 miles (92 km) of shelves, along five miles (8 km) of aisles on ten levels” – although I think in those days it had a mere seven levels.
For a book lover and not-always-math nerd such as myself, it was heaven, even if you just counted the bragging rights….
A few years later, when I was finishing my dissertation while living back in the Boston area, and thus without obvious access to a good research library, I lucked out and had a friend get out of library school and land her first job — at Widener. A library staff member could have up to three “research assistants” – who could have, you guessed it, a Widener Library card with stack privileges.
I used to go into Widener sometimes just to sit amongst all those books. Eventually things changed so that you couldn’t even get into the building without some kind of Harvard ID, although you could (and can) also pay $ to get a card for building access and book-borrowing if you’re among the unaffiliated. But it looks like no amount of $ can buy you a stack pass these days.
Sometimes I wonder how it happened that I didn’t become an academic. Then I remember what I was actually up to in my younger days, and the question goes away again.
(Margaret MacVicar died in 1991 at the age of 47. IIRC she had lung cancer, even though she had never been a smoker. I can’t say how much I admire the women who went before me and made a path through the barriers that were put in their way. That reminds me of a bunch more stories, but not for tonight.)
Michael – that’s great stuff. Very fun to poke around in those #s and lists.
Your story about “stealing time” reminds me of a story of my own….
Margaret “Scotty” MacVicar was already a legend at MIT when I started there in 1968; she founded the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program shortly after that. I did a couple of UROP projects, for one of which I applied for and got funds for a card that gave me borrowing privileges and a stack pass to the legendary Widener Library at Harvard.
As the wiki page says, it has “57 miles (92 km) of shelves, along five miles (8 km) of aisles on ten levels” – although I think in those days it had a mere seven levels.
For a book lover and not-always-math nerd such as myself, it was heaven, even if you just counted the bragging rights….
A few years later, when I was finishing my dissertation while living back in the Boston area, and thus without obvious access to a good research library, I lucked out and had a friend get out of library school and land her first job — at Widener. A library staff member could have up to three “research assistants” – who could have, you guessed it, a Widener Library card with stack privileges.
I used to go into Widener sometimes just to sit amongst all those books. Eventually things changed so that you couldn’t even get into the building without some kind of Harvard ID, although you could (and can) also pay $ to get a card for building access and book-borrowing if you’re among the unaffiliated. But it looks like no amount of $ can buy you a stack pass these days.
Sometimes I wonder how it happened that I didn’t become an academic. Then I remember what I was actually up to in my younger days, and the question goes away again.
(Margaret MacVicar died in 1991 at the age of 47. IIRC she had lung cancer, even though she had never been a smoker. I can’t say how much I admire the women who went before me and made a path through the barriers that were put in their way. That reminds me of a bunch more stories, but not for tonight.)
#7315: Warnock for the win
#7315: Warnock for the win
Yeah, I am so happy! I thought it would be a cliffhanger but, no, it’s decisive.
Wow, Micheal Cain! Though reading the list did make me feel sad. This blog is the only one I ever bonded with in the sense of making comments. Right now, I read very few blogs and comment very, very rarely. I think my first comments here were in 2004.
Yeah, I am so happy! I thought it would be a cliffhanger but, no, it’s decisive.
Wow, Micheal Cain! Though reading the list did make me feel sad. This blog is the only one I ever bonded with in the sense of making comments. Right now, I read very few blogs and comment very, very rarely. I think my first comments here were in 2004.
Happy not to be ashamed for my state of residence tonight.
Happy not to be ashamed for my state of residence tonight.
My takeaway is that I talk too much.
My foirst thought (about me) as well.
My takeaway is that I talk too much.
My foirst thought (about me) as well.
Yeah, I am so happy! I thought it would be a cliffhanger but, no, it’s decisive.
And the result was foreshadowed early on, when only small (deep red) counties were counted. Walker was leading there, of course, but by noticably less than in the general election.
Yeah, I am so happy! I thought it would be a cliffhanger but, no, it’s decisive.
And the result was foreshadowed early on, when only small (deep red) counties were counted. Walker was leading there, of course, but by noticably less than in the general election.
Also, the largest margin Walker was ahead was 50,000, when the balance of outstanding votes was heavily weighted to metro Atlanta. I had hoped for a decisive surprise early, but it was clear the numbers would come in ok.
Also, the largest margin Walker was ahead was 50,000, when the balance of outstanding votes was heavily weighted to metro Atlanta. I had hoped for a decisive surprise early, but it was clear the numbers would come in ok.
My takeaway is that I talk too much
You don’t.
My takeaway is that I talk too much
You don’t.
Michael has clearly learned the fine art of “computer abuse”, an absolutely critical segment of knowledge in these times.
Michael has clearly learned the fine art of “computer abuse”, an absolutely critical segment of knowledge in these times.
Time for another dose of Jamelle Bouie. Good stuff.
Time for another dose of Jamelle Bouie. Good stuff.
@nigel: My takeaway is that I talk too much
You don’t.
(About russell.)
Seconded.
*****
@bobbyp: thanks for the Jamelle Bouie link. Good op-ed. Concise and to the point, and the point needs to be spread around as much as possible.
@nigel: My takeaway is that I talk too much
You don’t.
(About russell.)
Seconded.
*****
@bobbyp: thanks for the Jamelle Bouie link. Good op-ed. Concise and to the point, and the point needs to be spread around as much as possible.
You don’t.
(About russell.)
Seconded.
Emphatically thirded. I must say, when I saw my numbers, I was shocked. But I guess it might be because I often indulge in actual back and forth conversations. Which I have no intention of giving up!
Hallelujah for Georgia! Let’s see if they (Rs) think better of their absurd, simplistic ideas about tokenism (I’ve mentioned before the R friend who defended McCain’s choice of Palin on the grounds that it would win over otherwise HRC voters).
Onward and upward.
You don’t.
(About russell.)
Seconded.
Emphatically thirded. I must say, when I saw my numbers, I was shocked. But I guess it might be because I often indulge in actual back and forth conversations. Which I have no intention of giving up!
Hallelujah for Georgia! Let’s see if they (Rs) think better of their absurd, simplistic ideas about tokenism (I’ve mentioned before the R friend who defended McCain’s choice of Palin on the grounds that it would win over otherwise HRC voters).
Onward and upward.
A clip form the Midnight Train to… lyrics seems appropriate.
…(A superstar, but he didn’t get far)
But he sure found out the hard way
That dreams don’t always come true (dreams don’t always come true)
Oh no (uh-uh, no, uh-uh)..
A clip form the Midnight Train to… lyrics seems appropriate.
…(A superstar, but he didn’t get far)
But he sure found out the hard way
That dreams don’t always come true (dreams don’t always come true)
Oh no (uh-uh, no, uh-uh)..
But what about such a ridiculous candidate being necessary to get a sane and (to my knwowledge) decent person elected there in his stead? And not to forget that there is such a thing as an incumbency bonus.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
But what about such a ridiculous candidate being necessary to get a sane and (to my knwowledge) decent person elected there in his stead? And not to forget that there is such a thing as an incumbency bonus.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
wonkie:
I think my first comments here were in 2004.
November 15, 2004, 4:47 PM.
wonkie:
I think my first comments here were in 2004.
November 15, 2004, 4:47 PM.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
Well, in this case Walker was a gift opponent. But it could easily have gone the other way, if the Rs had been clever enough (or not so in thrall to Trump) to pick a more respectable candidate. I have no doubt this, plus the midterms, have hammered that message home. One’s enemy adapts (I first put mutates, but decided that was a questionable insult. YMMV), and one has to adapt to counter it.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
Well, in this case Walker was a gift opponent. But it could easily have gone the other way, if the Rs had been clever enough (or not so in thrall to Trump) to pick a more respectable candidate. I have no doubt this, plus the midterms, have hammered that message home. One’s enemy adapts (I first put mutates, but decided that was a questionable insult. YMMV), and one has to adapt to counter it.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
It’s not at all clear to me that this is the only way the good guys win. It’s not even clear that Sen Warnock would have necessarily lost to a less idiotic opponent. Even in a state where every other statewide GOP candidate won.
Now a less reactionary opponent, i.e. one who was say as moderate as Sen Romney, might be a different story. But getting that kind of Republican nominee seems problematic, given a party membership which elects people like Rep Green.
It’s a classic sign of bad writing when the only way the good guys win is through the opposition consisting of 100% idiots.
It’s not at all clear to me that this is the only way the good guys win. It’s not even clear that Sen Warnock would have necessarily lost to a less idiotic opponent. Even in a state where every other statewide GOP candidate won.
Now a less reactionary opponent, i.e. one who was say as moderate as Sen Romney, might be a different story. But getting that kind of Republican nominee seems problematic, given a party membership which elects people like Rep Green.
What’s interesting to me is that Gary Farber hasn’t been here in a while and still tops the list of commenters by number of comments. That tells me that he probably tops the list of commenters by number of words by an even larger margin. Gary could write some lllooonnnggg comments. (Good ones, but long.)
I’m sure I’d be lower on the list if counting words, mostly because I’m lazy.
What’s interesting to me is that Gary Farber hasn’t been here in a while and still tops the list of commenters by number of comments. That tells me that he probably tops the list of commenters by number of words by an even larger margin. Gary could write some lllooonnnggg comments. (Good ones, but long.)
I’m sure I’d be lower on the list if counting words, mostly because I’m lazy.
That tells me that he probably tops the list of commenters by number of words by an even larger margin.
Must…resist…the…urge to write the code to count words in comments.
That tells me that he probably tops the list of commenters by number of words by an even larger margin.
Must…resist…the…urge to write the code to count words in comments.
Must…resist…the…urge to write the code to count words in comments.
Michael, you’ve already done more than anyone could reasonably ask on our behalf. Stay strong. 🙂
Must…resist…the…urge to write the code to count words in comments.
Michael, you’ve already done more than anyone could reasonably ask on our behalf. Stay strong. 🙂
Sorry, MC. Forget I said anything! ;^)
Sorry, MC. Forget I said anything! ;^)
No darned willpower at all. Well, it was only eight lines of new code. Perl was made for this. HTML tags were suppressed, but no attempt to separate out cut-and-paste quotes. As a point of reference, War and Peace comes in at 561,304 words. The entire Harry Potter series is 1,084,170.
No darned willpower at all. Well, it was only eight lines of new code. Perl was made for this. HTML tags were suppressed, but no attempt to separate out cut-and-paste quotes. As a point of reference, War and Peace comes in at 561,304 words. The entire Harry Potter series is 1,084,170.
Hm, This says that I wrote more than some guys who were here before me and are/were quite prolific posters? Hard to believe.
But since the Count and John are one and the same (as far as I know) this shifts me down a bit. Still – more than Brett?
Hm, This says that I wrote more than some guys who were here before me and are/were quite prolific posters? Hard to believe.
But since the Count and John are one and the same (as far as I know) this shifts me down a bit. Still – more than Brett?
No darned willpower at all.
Be assured that you have company. 😉
No darned willpower at all.
Be assured that you have company. 😉
@Hartmut, my own surprise comes not from comparing myself to others here, but from the realization that I’ve physically typed out a volume of words here roughly equivalent to Crime and Punishment.
@Hartmut, my own surprise comes not from comparing myself to others here, but from the realization that I’ve physically typed out a volume of words here roughly equivalent to Crime and Punishment.
Wow, that’s a lot of words, cf.:
War and Peace – 561,304 words
Moby Dick – 206,052 words
The Picture of Dorian Gray – 78,462 words
https://blog.fostergrant.co.uk/2017/08/03/word-counts-popular-books-world/
Some of us might have written a few novels instead, lol. Seriously, I do regret not having kept a diary all these years.
Wow, that’s a lot of words, cf.:
War and Peace – 561,304 words
Moby Dick – 206,052 words
The Picture of Dorian Gray – 78,462 words
https://blog.fostergrant.co.uk/2017/08/03/word-counts-popular-books-world/
Some of us might have written a few novels instead, lol. Seriously, I do regret not having kept a diary all these years.
I first came here when Andrew Sullivan linked to Andy’s Final Post, so not quite 15 years. If I divide my # of words by 15, then by 365, that’s not much more than 100 words a day. Given how capable I am of rambling on, that doesn’t seem out of whack.
Granted, I wasn’t around for several of the intervening years, so the daily rate is probably more like 200/day, but sometimes I find it hard to even introduce a thought train in 200 words.
I agree with hsh that Farber’s total is all the more staggering given that he hasn’t been seen at all around these parts for quite a few years. russell’s total must be heavily weighted toward the earlier years, including the years before I found the place, because my sense of it is that russell is fairly quiet these days — to our detriment, IMHO. No pressure, though, russell!! 🙂
I first came here when Andrew Sullivan linked to Andy’s Final Post, so not quite 15 years. If I divide my # of words by 15, then by 365, that’s not much more than 100 words a day. Given how capable I am of rambling on, that doesn’t seem out of whack.
Granted, I wasn’t around for several of the intervening years, so the daily rate is probably more like 200/day, but sometimes I find it hard to even introduce a thought train in 200 words.
I agree with hsh that Farber’s total is all the more staggering given that he hasn’t been seen at all around these parts for quite a few years. russell’s total must be heavily weighted toward the earlier years, including the years before I found the place, because my sense of it is that russell is fairly quiet these days — to our detriment, IMHO. No pressure, though, russell!! 🙂
Btw, something rather bizarre went down in Germany today, in case you missed it, i.e. a crazy right-wing coup plot was foiled:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/german-police-raids-target-far-right-reich-citizens-movement
It’s both funny and a bit worrying.
Btw, something rather bizarre went down in Germany today, in case you missed it, i.e. a crazy right-wing coup plot was foiled:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/german-police-raids-target-far-right-reich-citizens-movement
It’s both funny and a bit worrying.
Of the people on both lists, Gary appears to have the highest words/comment count at about 150. Turbulence is the highest on the top-20 word-count list of people not on the top-20 list for number of comments. Fun stuff. Thank you, Michael.
Of the people on both lists, Gary appears to have the highest words/comment count at about 150. Turbulence is the highest on the top-20 word-count list of people not on the top-20 list for number of comments. Fun stuff. Thank you, Michael.
Farber’s total is all the more staggering given that he hasn’t been seen at all around these parts for quite a few years.
Jesurgislac, too!
I’ve written two hilzoys. Seriously, I talk too much. Or have done.
Don’t know how long I’ve been here, but it was when Andy was still posting, so I guess 15+ years.
Andy’s final post was a sad day.
Farber’s total is all the more staggering given that he hasn’t been seen at all around these parts for quite a few years.
Jesurgislac, too!
I’ve written two hilzoys. Seriously, I talk too much. Or have done.
Don’t know how long I’ve been here, but it was when Andy was still posting, so I guess 15+ years.
Andy’s final post was a sad day.
I’ve written two hilzoys. Seriously, I talk too much. Or have done.
That’s just comments. hilzoy’s post tally of 2420 is beyond belief, all the more given how polished, informative, and thoughtful her posts were. That’s 2.5 times publius’s, the next in line.
Just sayin’.
I’ve written two hilzoys. Seriously, I talk too much. Or have done.
That’s just comments. hilzoy’s post tally of 2420 is beyond belief, all the more given how polished, informative, and thoughtful her posts were. That’s 2.5 times publius’s, the next in line.
Just sayin’.
Not at all surprised to see the numbers Gary put up. There were times when the comments thread was just a stream of his comments and links to his own blog where he had already covered the topic in depth with links, etc.
Not at all surprised to see the numbers Gary put up. There were times when the comments thread was just a stream of his comments and links to his own blog where he had already covered the topic in depth with links, etc.
Some follow up data on the Georgia runoff that folks may or may not find interesting.
The Two Georgias
There are 159 counties in Georgia (another legacy of Jim Crow, as the “county unit” rule was followed prior to one-person/one-vote Supreme Court ruling). In only 10 counties was the vote margin less than 5%, 14 less than 10%, and 27 less than 20%. Of the 65 counties with vote totals of 10K or more, only 3 had margins less than 10%.
Looking at the counties with the top 10 vote totals (9 metro Atlanta plus Savannah – Chatham County), 7 favored Warnock and 3 went for Walker. The closest margin in the 10 was Cobb at 19%, and the average margin across the 10 was 41.7%.
In aggregate close to 50/50, but geographically two different polities.
Some follow up data on the Georgia runoff that folks may or may not find interesting.
The Two Georgias
There are 159 counties in Georgia (another legacy of Jim Crow, as the “county unit” rule was followed prior to one-person/one-vote Supreme Court ruling). In only 10 counties was the vote margin less than 5%, 14 less than 10%, and 27 less than 20%. Of the 65 counties with vote totals of 10K or more, only 3 had margins less than 10%.
Looking at the counties with the top 10 vote totals (9 metro Atlanta plus Savannah – Chatham County), 7 favored Warnock and 3 went for Walker. The closest margin in the 10 was Cobb at 19%, and the average margin across the 10 was 41.7%.
In aggregate close to 50/50, but geographically two different polities.
In aggregate close to 50/50, but geographically two different polities.
One difference between them is that one is growing, both geographically and in population. The other is shrinking geographically (necessarily) and at best holding ground outside that geographical boundary.
In aggregate close to 50/50, but geographically two different polities.
One difference between them is that one is growing, both geographically and in population. The other is shrinking geographically (necessarily) and at best holding ground outside that geographical boundary.
I looked up an interactive map with county-by-county results for the GA runoff after reading Priest’s comment. One striking thing was how adjacent counties differed so greatly in results. A close-in Atlanta-metro county goes for Warnock by 40% and the next bordering county further out goes for Walker by 40%. (Not actuals presented, but just giving the gist.)
I looked up an interactive map with county-by-county results for the GA runoff after reading Priest’s comment. One striking thing was how adjacent counties differed so greatly in results. A close-in Atlanta-metro county goes for Warnock by 40% and the next bordering county further out goes for Walker by 40%. (Not actuals presented, but just giving the gist.)
Priest, hsh — are there links to these toys? Also, is there a site that has that kind of county by county breakdown? (By Congressional district would be nice too.) I’m just being lazy … don’t have time to go looking right now. If no one else does either, I’ll see what I can find some other day.
Priest, hsh — are there links to these toys? Also, is there a site that has that kind of county by county breakdown? (By Congressional district would be nice too.) I’m just being lazy … don’t have time to go looking right now. If no one else does either, I’ll see what I can find some other day.
Try this one, Janie.
https://apps.npr.org/election-results-live-2022/#/states/GA/S
Try this one, Janie.
https://apps.npr.org/election-results-live-2022/#/states/GA/S
hsh – thanks!
hsh – thanks!
Clearly, tomorrow morning I need to pull out my cartogram software and do a red/blue Georgia map with the 159 counties resized based on population. Maybe a transition video between the two — I haven’t done one of those for a long time.
Clearly, tomorrow morning I need to pull out my cartogram software and do a red/blue Georgia map with the 159 counties resized based on population. Maybe a transition video between the two — I haven’t done one of those for a long time.
The United States is two different polities.
The United States is two different polities.
Yes — Georgia might be an extreme example, but that divide can be found in a lot of states (almost all of them?).
I haven’t looked for the county data yet, but Biden got 60% of the vote in Maine’s 1st Congressional district and 45% in the 2nd. The notion that Maine has a serious division between the more populated coast areas and the relatively vast rural areas is not remotely a new one.
Yes — Georgia might be an extreme example, but that divide can be found in a lot of states (almost all of them?).
I haven’t looked for the county data yet, but Biden got 60% of the vote in Maine’s 1st Congressional district and 45% in the 2nd. The notion that Maine has a serious division between the more populated coast areas and the relatively vast rural areas is not remotely a new one.
JanieM, I use The NY Times election results page as source for county data, also has the state map where you can hover/click on individual counties, as well as table with county results already sorted most votes to least votes. I just brute forced the counting of the numbers.
JanieM, I use The NY Times election results page as source for county data, also has the state map where you can hover/click on individual counties, as well as table with county results already sorted most votes to least votes. I just brute forced the counting of the numbers.
Thanks, Priest.
Thanks, Priest.
This one’s for wj, who, IIRC, has commented a number of times about how Rump has been sabotaging Republican turnout in elections with his conspiracy theories.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/08/republicans-have-a-post-election-epiphany-on-mail-voting-00072956
This one’s for wj, who, IIRC, has commented a number of times about how Rump has been sabotaging Republican turnout in elections with his conspiracy theories.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/08/republicans-have-a-post-election-epiphany-on-mail-voting-00072956
Brittney Griner released in exchange for Bout, apparently brokered by bin Salman and bin Zayed which are names I did not expect to see involved in this story. This seems like a good thing to me, albeit not optimal as apparently Whelan was off the table. But a good thing nonetheless. So I guess I’m kinda surprised at how much the deal is getting bashed around the intertubes. I suppose I shouldn’t be.
Also, there are more than a few politicians who could take some notes from Cherelle Griner, who handled the press conference with aplomb.
In other news, Germany, US, and the Socceroos are all out, so… Go Atlas Lions!
Brittney Griner released in exchange for Bout, apparently brokered by bin Salman and bin Zayed which are names I did not expect to see involved in this story. This seems like a good thing to me, albeit not optimal as apparently Whelan was off the table. But a good thing nonetheless. So I guess I’m kinda surprised at how much the deal is getting bashed around the intertubes. I suppose I shouldn’t be.
Also, there are more than a few politicians who could take some notes from Cherelle Griner, who handled the press conference with aplomb.
In other news, Germany, US, and the Socceroos are all out, so… Go Atlas Lions!
There is a growing sense of alarm among the GOP ranks that the conspiracy theories Trump pushed about early voting and mail ballots not only hurt them dearly in the just completed midterms,
Especially when, as in Georgia for this week’s runoff, the Election Day weather is bad.
Time was, mail ballots were fairly heavily skewed Republican. In significant part because a lot of older voters found that far easier than physically getting to the polls. But also because, in rural areas, it can be a lot of miles to the polling place.
It was always obvious (at least to me) that Trump’s rantings about mail-in ballots after the 2016 election were going to be a problem for the GOP, if he kept them up long enough. Which, of course, he did. Just as his rantings about (nonexistant) massive election fraud was likely to leave some of his fans thinking there was no reason to bother to vote at all.
Republican election officials in Arizona and Georgia (and probably other, lower profile, places) were adamant about how scure and reliable voting was. But Trump had the bigger bullhorn. Also too many Republican office holders, especially those with no roll in (or even the faintest knowledge of) administering elections either stood silent or echoed Trump’s nonsense.
So now Republicans discover just how effective a gunrest they have strapped to their knee. The better to make sore they shoot themselves in the foot successfully.
There is a growing sense of alarm among the GOP ranks that the conspiracy theories Trump pushed about early voting and mail ballots not only hurt them dearly in the just completed midterms,
Especially when, as in Georgia for this week’s runoff, the Election Day weather is bad.
Time was, mail ballots were fairly heavily skewed Republican. In significant part because a lot of older voters found that far easier than physically getting to the polls. But also because, in rural areas, it can be a lot of miles to the polling place.
It was always obvious (at least to me) that Trump’s rantings about mail-in ballots after the 2016 election were going to be a problem for the GOP, if he kept them up long enough. Which, of course, he did. Just as his rantings about (nonexistant) massive election fraud was likely to leave some of his fans thinking there was no reason to bother to vote at all.
Republican election officials in Arizona and Georgia (and probably other, lower profile, places) were adamant about how scure and reliable voting was. But Trump had the bigger bullhorn. Also too many Republican office holders, especially those with no roll in (or even the faintest knowledge of) administering elections either stood silent or echoed Trump’s nonsense.
So now Republicans discover just how effective a gunrest they have strapped to their knee. The better to make sore they shoot themselves in the foot successfully.
Brittney Griner released in exchange for Bout, apparently brokered by bin Salman and bin Zayed which are names I did not expect to see involved in this story. This seems like a good thing to me, albeit not optimal as apparently Whelan was off the table.
It is increasingly apparent, if it wasn’t already obvious, that travel to Russia is a terrible idea. No matter how innocent (pardon the pun) you are. One has to wonder what people who do were thinking.
Even if your home country is willing to bargin for your release, you are going to be stuck for quite a while, quite possibly incommunicado, in a prison far nastier than the ones at home. (Which mostly aren’t exactly garden spots either.) Not to mention that the price demanded for your release may be impossibly high.
Brittney Griner released in exchange for Bout, apparently brokered by bin Salman and bin Zayed which are names I did not expect to see involved in this story. This seems like a good thing to me, albeit not optimal as apparently Whelan was off the table.
It is increasingly apparent, if it wasn’t already obvious, that travel to Russia is a terrible idea. No matter how innocent (pardon the pun) you are. One has to wonder what people who do were thinking.
Even if your home country is willing to bargin for your release, you are going to be stuck for quite a while, quite possibly incommunicado, in a prison far nastier than the ones at home. (Which mostly aren’t exactly garden spots either.) Not to mention that the price demanded for your release may be impossibly high.
Not a knock on Griner, but I think elite athletes live in a different world. On the one hand, maybe that greases the wheels for them to think “it can’t happen to me.” On the other hand, given the resources available in pro sports, you’d think someone would be up to the task of assessing the risks and warning the athletes.
Anyhow, Griner was not just engaging in “travel to Russia” like any old tourist. As her wiki says, “She had been entering Russia to play with the Russian Premier League during the WNBA offseason.”
I think it was not long after she was arrested that I read an interview with another player who was being asked why on earth they’d risk playing in Russia. She talked about how much their provincial city loved them and supported them as a team. Things get confused…and are confusing.
Reading further into the wiki, there’s this under Griner’s career history entry:
2014–present UMMC Ekaterinburg
So she not only wasn’t any old tourist, she had been playing in Russia for 8 or 9 years. We don’t always realize when things have changed too much for our safety anymore.
I’m glad she’s coming home. I wish there were some magic to stop the rest of the atrocities Russia is perpetrating on the world.
(There was a time when I was such a dedicated basketball fan that I probably wouldn’t have had to look any of this stuff up. Ah well.)
Not a knock on Griner, but I think elite athletes live in a different world. On the one hand, maybe that greases the wheels for them to think “it can’t happen to me.” On the other hand, given the resources available in pro sports, you’d think someone would be up to the task of assessing the risks and warning the athletes.
Anyhow, Griner was not just engaging in “travel to Russia” like any old tourist. As her wiki says, “She had been entering Russia to play with the Russian Premier League during the WNBA offseason.”
I think it was not long after she was arrested that I read an interview with another player who was being asked why on earth they’d risk playing in Russia. She talked about how much their provincial city loved them and supported them as a team. Things get confused…and are confusing.
Reading further into the wiki, there’s this under Griner’s career history entry:
2014–present UMMC Ekaterinburg
So she not only wasn’t any old tourist, she had been playing in Russia for 8 or 9 years. We don’t always realize when things have changed too much for our safety anymore.
I’m glad she’s coming home. I wish there were some magic to stop the rest of the atrocities Russia is perpetrating on the world.
(There was a time when I was such a dedicated basketball fan that I probably wouldn’t have had to look any of this stuff up. Ah well.)
given the resources available in pro sports, you’d think someone would be up to the task of assessing the risks and warning the athletes.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the problem is how much pro athletes depend on their agents to take care of everything else, so they can concentrate on their sports.
The agent gets a percentage of the athletes income. But probably doesn’t travel with them most of the time. And, in any case, doesn’t make a high profile hostage. So the risk, for him, is low.
All of the agent’s incentives are on ignoring the risks to the player and going for the money to the exclusion of all else. That’s why athletes who already have more money than they can spend in a lifetime, move around in pursuit of ever higher contracts. It isn’t really them looking for a bigger payday, it’s the guy getting a percentage.
given the resources available in pro sports, you’d think someone would be up to the task of assessing the risks and warning the athletes.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the problem is how much pro athletes depend on their agents to take care of everything else, so they can concentrate on their sports.
The agent gets a percentage of the athletes income. But probably doesn’t travel with them most of the time. And, in any case, doesn’t make a high profile hostage. So the risk, for him, is low.
All of the agent’s incentives are on ignoring the risks to the player and going for the money to the exclusion of all else. That’s why athletes who already have more money than they can spend in a lifetime, move around in pursuit of ever higher contracts. It isn’t really them looking for a bigger payday, it’s the guy getting a percentage.
Footnote from the wiki page for the team she played with in Russia:
In reaction to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022 EuroLeague Women suspended the club.[1]
Footnote from the wiki page for the team she played with in Russia:
In reaction to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022 EuroLeague Women suspended the club.[1]
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the problem is how much pro athletes depend on their agents to take care of everything else, so they can concentrate on their sports.
I admit that every time I read a story about a famous athlete or actor caught with stuff in their luggage that is illegal in the country where they are arriving, I think there must be a concierge service of some sort that will go through your luggage — or even pack your luggage — and remove all the problematic items. And wonder why they’re not using it.
Long ago I worked for a giant corporation whose CEO had to travel a lot. Some weeks he stayed in a different city every night. I once met the person who arranged his travel, including the service that delivered a small suitcase with clean clothing and preferred toiletries to his hotel before he arrived, and then picked up everything and checked him out when he left. Something like that, for the rich and famous.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the problem is how much pro athletes depend on their agents to take care of everything else, so they can concentrate on their sports.
I admit that every time I read a story about a famous athlete or actor caught with stuff in their luggage that is illegal in the country where they are arriving, I think there must be a concierge service of some sort that will go through your luggage — or even pack your luggage — and remove all the problematic items. And wonder why they’re not using it.
Long ago I worked for a giant corporation whose CEO had to travel a lot. Some weeks he stayed in a different city every night. I once met the person who arranged his travel, including the service that delivered a small suitcase with clean clothing and preferred toiletries to his hotel before he arrived, and then picked up everything and checked him out when he left. Something like that, for the rich and famous.
@Michael Cain — cynically (or realistically?), I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s such a process for NBA players, or anyone at that level of men’s sports.
@Michael Cain — cynically (or realistically?), I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s such a process for NBA players, or anyone at that level of men’s sports.
Without getting into the whole issue of salary discrepancies and the reasons for them (you can if you want to here and I’m sure in many other places):
The average NBA salary is about $7.5 million; according to the league, the average WNBA salary in 2019 was reportedly about $116,000, but a new collective bargaining agreement — which runs from 2020 to 2027 — provides a 53% pay increase, plus maternity leave at full salary, $5,000 for child care, and as much as $60,000 for adoption, surrogacy, egg freezing and fertility treatments. Under the CBA, base salaries increase to $130,000 and the league’s elite players can earn upward of $500,000.
Without getting into the whole issue of salary discrepancies and the reasons for them (you can if you want to here and I’m sure in many other places):
The average NBA salary is about $7.5 million; according to the league, the average WNBA salary in 2019 was reportedly about $116,000, but a new collective bargaining agreement — which runs from 2020 to 2027 — provides a 53% pay increase, plus maternity leave at full salary, $5,000 for child care, and as much as $60,000 for adoption, surrogacy, egg freezing and fertility treatments. Under the CBA, base salaries increase to $130,000 and the league’s elite players can earn upward of $500,000.
Your point about NBA and WNBA salary differences is valid, but Griner was entering Russia to play in the league there, where she has played previously, for a reported $1.5M per year. She or her agent could afford a concierge screening service, at least for trips into Russia.
Your point about NBA and WNBA salary differences is valid, but Griner was entering Russia to play in the league there, where she has played previously, for a reported $1.5M per year. She or her agent could afford a concierge screening service, at least for trips into Russia.
No argument there, Michael. And I’m sure Griner is at the top end of the WNBA salary range, not at the average. I hope this episode at least has the silver lining of waking people up.
No argument there, Michael. And I’m sure Griner is at the top end of the WNBA salary range, not at the average. I hope this episode at least has the silver lining of waking people up.
Since this is an open thread, I am going to change the subject! My neighbor has posted another statement on FB advocating war within the US. He’s in a snit because he believes that the real true values of real true Americans are being destroyed right before our eyes and THIS MUST BE STOPPED!!!! Of course, he’s right about American being destroyed from within: that’s what the SC is working on right now. But that isn’t what he means. He means all not-Republicans, and especially Democrats, are the enemy and Republicans HAVE to kill us because that is what patriots need to do.
He is the result of the decision made by the Republican party to substitute hatemongering for legitimate political discourse. SO are all the shooters and stabbers and intimidators and threat-makers and wannabe kidnappers. The Republican party deliberately and cynically polarized this nation by demonizing over half the population into the “Other” to the point that otherwise respectable people speak in public about killing us.
I told him to stop reading Republican news and re-acquaint himself with the New Testament. (He claims to be CHristian.)
I’m not seriously expecting him to kill anyone. However I think we all should be concerned that the REpublican party has been so successful at propagandizing their base into mindless haters that otherwise normal people are behaving like fascists.
Trump is not the problem. The whole fucking Republican party is the problem, with very very few exceptions.
Since this is an open thread, I am going to change the subject! My neighbor has posted another statement on FB advocating war within the US. He’s in a snit because he believes that the real true values of real true Americans are being destroyed right before our eyes and THIS MUST BE STOPPED!!!! Of course, he’s right about American being destroyed from within: that’s what the SC is working on right now. But that isn’t what he means. He means all not-Republicans, and especially Democrats, are the enemy and Republicans HAVE to kill us because that is what patriots need to do.
He is the result of the decision made by the Republican party to substitute hatemongering for legitimate political discourse. SO are all the shooters and stabbers and intimidators and threat-makers and wannabe kidnappers. The Republican party deliberately and cynically polarized this nation by demonizing over half the population into the “Other” to the point that otherwise respectable people speak in public about killing us.
I told him to stop reading Republican news and re-acquaint himself with the New Testament. (He claims to be CHristian.)
I’m not seriously expecting him to kill anyone. However I think we all should be concerned that the REpublican party has been so successful at propagandizing their base into mindless haters that otherwise normal people are behaving like fascists.
Trump is not the problem. The whole fucking Republican party is the problem, with very very few exceptions.
My neighbor has posted another statement on FB advocating war within the US.
Seems like an Inciting to Riot charge would be a slam dunk. Especially since he is advocating not just property destruction but homicide. (If you don’t know, you don’t have to successfully incite a riot for the charge to be sustained.)
My neighbor has posted another statement on FB advocating war within the US.
Seems like an Inciting to Riot charge would be a slam dunk. Especially since he is advocating not just property destruction but homicide. (If you don’t know, you don’t have to successfully incite a riot for the charge to be sustained.)
Speaking of crimes committed overseas, how, if at all, has Anne Sacoolas‘ trial been covered in the USA? The case has caused considerable ill-feeling over here.
Speaking of crimes committed overseas, how, if at all, has Anne Sacoolas‘ trial been covered in the USA? The case has caused considerable ill-feeling over here.
how, if at all, has Anne Sacoolas’ trial been covered in the USA?
I recall seeing mention of the event, but don’t recall the trail per se. Although I do seem to recall hearing that she was found guilty.
From what was in the press, the only point of dispute seemed to be on how valid the claim of diplomatic immunity was — my view is that diplomatic immunity is to prevent harassment of diplomats abroad, not to avoid responsibility for actual misdeeds. Since it was under Trump’s administration, it was hard to tell how much was a valid concern and how much was Clickbait posturing as usual.
I don’t recall seeing anything about the wrongful death suit apparently being brought in the US.
how, if at all, has Anne Sacoolas’ trial been covered in the USA?
I recall seeing mention of the event, but don’t recall the trail per se. Although I do seem to recall hearing that she was found guilty.
From what was in the press, the only point of dispute seemed to be on how valid the claim of diplomatic immunity was — my view is that diplomatic immunity is to prevent harassment of diplomats abroad, not to avoid responsibility for actual misdeeds. Since it was under Trump’s administration, it was hard to tell how much was a valid concern and how much was Clickbait posturing as usual.
I don’t recall seeing anything about the wrongful death suit apparently being brought in the US.
I don’t read the news in any systematic way, so my impressions aren’t a measure of anything much. I do remember reading about her flight from the UK and the refusal to extradite her, but hadn’t seen anything about the trial until you (Pro Bono) just mentioned it.
The earlier coverage I saw was fairly neutral — i.e. certainly not particularly sympathetic to Sacoolas, although not out for blood either.
I don’t read the news in any systematic way, so my impressions aren’t a measure of anything much. I do remember reading about her flight from the UK and the refusal to extradite her, but hadn’t seen anything about the trial until you (Pro Bono) just mentioned it.
The earlier coverage I saw was fairly neutral — i.e. certainly not particularly sympathetic to Sacoolas, although not out for blood either.
This in the NYT is interesting, on the Georgia vote. I am copying, because of paywall etc:
Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.
No, the main G.O.P. problem wasn’t prioritizing Election Day voting over early voting.
By Nate Cohn
Dec. 8, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET
You’re reading The Tilt newsletter, for Times subscribers only. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data. Get it in your inbox.
Republicans turned out in force, but Herschel Walker still lost in Georgia.
After yet another disappointing showing for Republicans in Georgia’s Senate runoff on Tuesday, some conservatives — like Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich and Kevin McCarthy — have begun to point to a surprising culprit: a failure to take advantage of early voting.
The theory seems to be that Republicans are losing because early voting is giving Democrats a turnout edge. It follows a similar conversation after the midterm elections, when a chorus of conservatives said Republicans needed to start encouraging mail voting.
But as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.
In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.
Instead, high-profile Republicans like Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona lost because Republican-leaning voters decided to cast ballots for Democrats, even as they voted for Republican candidates for U.S. House or other down-ballot races in their states.
Georgia is a fine example. While Mr. Walker may blame turnout for his poor showing in November and earlier this week, other Republican candidates seemed to have no problem at all. Gov. Brian Kemp won by nearly eight points over Stacey Abrams; Republican candidates for House won the most votes on the same day.
Yet Senator Raphael Warnock won in Georgia anyway because a large group of voters willing to back other Republicans weren’t willing to back Mr. Walker.
The final turnout figures make it clear that Republicans — including Mr. Walker — benefited from very favorable turnout last month. Unlike in recent years, Republican primary voters were likelier to vote than Democrats (by a modest margin). Meanwhile, the white turnout rate exceeded the Black turnout rate by the widest margin since 2006.
We went back and looked at the respondents to our pre-election Times/Siena survey, and matched them to post-election vote turnout records. We found that the respondents who said they backed Mr. Walker were actually likelier to vote than those who said they backed Mr. Warnock.
But Mr. Walker still lost.
On Tuesday, Mr. Walker lost again. This time, he lost by three points — two points worse than in November. The final turnout data won’t be in for weeks, but for now it is reasonable to suppose that Mr. Warnock fared better because the turnout was incrementally more favorable to him than it was in November.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats enjoyed a great turnout. All of the Republicans running for statewide office — other than Mr. Walker — could have easily survived an electorate that was two points less favorable.
By our estimates, the 2022 electorate was several points more favorable to Republicans in Georgia than the 2020 electorate — which wasn’t great for Democrats, either.
Any Democratic gains in the runoff almost certainly weren’t because of early voting. After all, this election was held with just one week of early voting, as opposed to three weeks in the general election. The number of Election Day voters actually increased in the runoff. So did the share of votes cast on Election Day. But it was the Democrat who fared better.
Georgia is just one example of a broader national turnout gap, including in many of the places where Republicans blame early voting for their woes.
Take Maricopa County in Arizona. It’s home to Phoenix and around 70 percent of the state’s voters. Some Republicans say — without any clear evidence — they faltered in Arizona because some Maricopa voters were unable to cast ballots at the polls on Election Day, but the final turnout data shows that 75 percent of registered Republicans turned out, compared with 69 percent of Democrats. That was enough to yield an electorate in which registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nine percentage points. Yet Republicans like Mr. Masters and Kari Lake lost their races for Senate and governor.
Or consider Clark County in Nevada. There, 67 percent of Republicans voted, compared with 57 percent of Democrats, implying that Republicans probably outnumbered Democrats statewide. Yet the Democrat — Catherine Cortez Masto — prevailed in the Senate while Republicans won the governorship and also won the most votes for the House.
Wherever I’ve dug into the data, I see a similar story. You can read comprehensive analyses of North Carolina, Florida or New York, all showing a considerable Republican edge as well.
In the key Senate states mentioned in this article, Republican House candidates received more votes than Democratic ones. The final Times/Siena polls showed that voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada preferred Republican control of the Senate.
It’s fair to say voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of government, in no small part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot. Before joining The Times in 2013, he was a staff writer for The New Republic. @Nate_Cohn
This in the NYT is interesting, on the Georgia vote. I am copying, because of paywall etc:
Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.
No, the main G.O.P. problem wasn’t prioritizing Election Day voting over early voting.
By Nate Cohn
Dec. 8, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET
You’re reading The Tilt newsletter, for Times subscribers only. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data. Get it in your inbox.
Republicans turned out in force, but Herschel Walker still lost in Georgia.
After yet another disappointing showing for Republicans in Georgia’s Senate runoff on Tuesday, some conservatives — like Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich and Kevin McCarthy — have begun to point to a surprising culprit: a failure to take advantage of early voting.
The theory seems to be that Republicans are losing because early voting is giving Democrats a turnout edge. It follows a similar conversation after the midterm elections, when a chorus of conservatives said Republicans needed to start encouraging mail voting.
But as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.
In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.
Instead, high-profile Republicans like Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona lost because Republican-leaning voters decided to cast ballots for Democrats, even as they voted for Republican candidates for U.S. House or other down-ballot races in their states.
Georgia is a fine example. While Mr. Walker may blame turnout for his poor showing in November and earlier this week, other Republican candidates seemed to have no problem at all. Gov. Brian Kemp won by nearly eight points over Stacey Abrams; Republican candidates for House won the most votes on the same day.
Yet Senator Raphael Warnock won in Georgia anyway because a large group of voters willing to back other Republicans weren’t willing to back Mr. Walker.
The final turnout figures make it clear that Republicans — including Mr. Walker — benefited from very favorable turnout last month. Unlike in recent years, Republican primary voters were likelier to vote than Democrats (by a modest margin). Meanwhile, the white turnout rate exceeded the Black turnout rate by the widest margin since 2006.
We went back and looked at the respondents to our pre-election Times/Siena survey, and matched them to post-election vote turnout records. We found that the respondents who said they backed Mr. Walker were actually likelier to vote than those who said they backed Mr. Warnock.
But Mr. Walker still lost.
On Tuesday, Mr. Walker lost again. This time, he lost by three points — two points worse than in November. The final turnout data won’t be in for weeks, but for now it is reasonable to suppose that Mr. Warnock fared better because the turnout was incrementally more favorable to him than it was in November.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats enjoyed a great turnout. All of the Republicans running for statewide office — other than Mr. Walker — could have easily survived an electorate that was two points less favorable.
By our estimates, the 2022 electorate was several points more favorable to Republicans in Georgia than the 2020 electorate — which wasn’t great for Democrats, either.
Any Democratic gains in the runoff almost certainly weren’t because of early voting. After all, this election was held with just one week of early voting, as opposed to three weeks in the general election. The number of Election Day voters actually increased in the runoff. So did the share of votes cast on Election Day. But it was the Democrat who fared better.
Georgia is just one example of a broader national turnout gap, including in many of the places where Republicans blame early voting for their woes.
Take Maricopa County in Arizona. It’s home to Phoenix and around 70 percent of the state’s voters. Some Republicans say — without any clear evidence — they faltered in Arizona because some Maricopa voters were unable to cast ballots at the polls on Election Day, but the final turnout data shows that 75 percent of registered Republicans turned out, compared with 69 percent of Democrats. That was enough to yield an electorate in which registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nine percentage points. Yet Republicans like Mr. Masters and Kari Lake lost their races for Senate and governor.
Or consider Clark County in Nevada. There, 67 percent of Republicans voted, compared with 57 percent of Democrats, implying that Republicans probably outnumbered Democrats statewide. Yet the Democrat — Catherine Cortez Masto — prevailed in the Senate while Republicans won the governorship and also won the most votes for the House.
Wherever I’ve dug into the data, I see a similar story. You can read comprehensive analyses of North Carolina, Florida or New York, all showing a considerable Republican edge as well.
In the key Senate states mentioned in this article, Republican House candidates received more votes than Democratic ones. The final Times/Siena polls showed that voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada preferred Republican control of the Senate.
It’s fair to say voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of government, in no small part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot. Before joining The Times in 2013, he was a staff writer for The New Republic. @Nate_Cohn
On the Sacoolas case, I think most people understand (I certainly do, as I think would anyone who had driven on the other side of the road in foreign countries) how this could have happened, and that Mrs Sacoolas was not a villain because of a momentary lapse. What riles people (and I agree it is pretty despicable) is a) the diplomatic immunity decision, and most of all b) the refusal to come to court here and attend the sentencing as the judge had instructed. It was pretty obvious that there would be no actual jail time, so this looks very much like a case of cowardice, and US exceptionalism or even arrogance (and this applies to whoever is in the White House – the approach was the same).
On the Sacoolas case, I think most people understand (I certainly do, as I think would anyone who had driven on the other side of the road in foreign countries) how this could have happened, and that Mrs Sacoolas was not a villain because of a momentary lapse. What riles people (and I agree it is pretty despicable) is a) the diplomatic immunity decision, and most of all b) the refusal to come to court here and attend the sentencing as the judge had instructed. It was pretty obvious that there would be no actual jail time, so this looks very much like a case of cowardice, and US exceptionalism or even arrogance (and this applies to whoever is in the White House – the approach was the same).
And RIP Johnny Johnson, the last surviving WWII Dambuster (whose pilot, incidentally, was the only American on the raid), who has died at the age of 101.
And RIP Johnny Johnson, the last surviving WWII Dambuster (whose pilot, incidentally, was the only American on the raid), who has died at the age of 101.
as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.
In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.
Two points:
1) Most states have a huge number of voters who are not even close to aligned with either party. In some places (last I heard) there wasn’t an explicit “decline to state a choice” option. But the same people exist there, too. So looking just at percentage turnout for party-registered voters is misleading.
2) In a lot of those cases that he cites, candidate quality clearly did matter. And a lot of those low quality (and therefore losing) Republican candidates were Trump fans. Already, increasing numbers of Republican office holders are finding the nerve to say publicly that Trump is a drag on the party.
as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it is quite clear that turnout was not the main problem facing Republicans.
In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.
Two points:
1) Most states have a huge number of voters who are not even close to aligned with either party. In some places (last I heard) there wasn’t an explicit “decline to state a choice” option. But the same people exist there, too. So looking just at percentage turnout for party-registered voters is misleading.
2) In a lot of those cases that he cites, candidate quality clearly did matter. And a lot of those low quality (and therefore losing) Republican candidates were Trump fans. Already, increasing numbers of Republican office holders are finding the nerve to say publicly that Trump is a drag on the party.
But that isn’t what he means. He means all not-Republicans, and especially Democrats, are the enemy and Republicans HAVE to kill us because that is what patriots need to do.
Not to go all Thullen, but has anyone told him that in a lot of the country not-Republicans outnumber Republicans? And the not-Republicans also have guns? Or asked how his family is going to eat while he’s doing block-by-block urban warfare? There are real reasons why we recruit (preferably single) 19-year-olds for the infantry. And why moving food and ammunition is what keeps the military types up at night.
But that isn’t what he means. He means all not-Republicans, and especially Democrats, are the enemy and Republicans HAVE to kill us because that is what patriots need to do.
Not to go all Thullen, but has anyone told him that in a lot of the country not-Republicans outnumber Republicans? And the not-Republicans also have guns? Or asked how his family is going to eat while he’s doing block-by-block urban warfare? There are real reasons why we recruit (preferably single) 19-year-olds for the infantry. And why moving food and ammunition is what keeps the military types up at night.
moving food and ammunition is what keeps the military types up at night.
Logistics, logistics, logistics.
These guys spouting civil war appear to have never even heard the term. Certainly their supply plans appear to premise that Walmart, etc. remain open and with well-stocked shelves. Not the only area where they’re clueless, but definitely one of the critical ones.
moving food and ammunition is what keeps the military types up at night.
Logistics, logistics, logistics.
These guys spouting civil war appear to have never even heard the term. Certainly their supply plans appear to premise that Walmart, etc. remain open and with well-stocked shelves. Not the only area where they’re clueless, but definitely one of the critical ones.
Not unrelated to wonkie’s concerns: substation attacks.
IIRC from reporting at the time (a few days ago), the NC attackers also disabled cell phone towers so people couldn’t call emergency services.
Not unrelated to wonkie’s concerns: substation attacks.
IIRC from reporting at the time (a few days ago), the NC attackers also disabled cell phone towers so people couldn’t call emergency services.
Disabling substations is a terribly unfocused way of attacking political enemies, if that’s what these chaos-mongers are trying to do. I could understand more if they were subs dedicated to a particular industrial or commercial interest, but these are for general power distribution. Seems like they’re going to piss off just about everyone. Then again, instability itself creates some opportunity.
I’d guess they’ll catch at least some of these jackasses and we’ll find out what they were trying to accomplish. It can’t just be for it’s own sake like something The Joker would do.
Disabling substations is a terribly unfocused way of attacking political enemies, if that’s what these chaos-mongers are trying to do. I could understand more if they were subs dedicated to a particular industrial or commercial interest, but these are for general power distribution. Seems like they’re going to piss off just about everyone. Then again, instability itself creates some opportunity.
I’d guess they’ll catch at least some of these jackasses and we’ll find out what they were trying to accomplish. It can’t just be for it’s own sake like something The Joker would do.
Seems like they’re going to piss off just about everyone. Then again, instability itself creates some opportunity.
Yes to both. I’ve read that there’s been talk of this kind of thing in far right / nationalist circles for a long time. Create chaos, move into the vacuum it (allegedly) creates. Who knows. It’s not comforting, though.
It’s kind of like something I used to think about right after 9/11/01. I don’t think the guys who did that had a clue what would *really* scare people on a wide scale. I’m not even going to say what I think would have, but it wouldn’t have been the ego-trip of going for the most spectacular buildings in the country.
Seems like they’re going to piss off just about everyone. Then again, instability itself creates some opportunity.
Yes to both. I’ve read that there’s been talk of this kind of thing in far right / nationalist circles for a long time. Create chaos, move into the vacuum it (allegedly) creates. Who knows. It’s not comforting, though.
It’s kind of like something I used to think about right after 9/11/01. I don’t think the guys who did that had a clue what would *really* scare people on a wide scale. I’m not even going to say what I think would have, but it wouldn’t have been the ego-trip of going for the most spectacular buildings in the country.
Don’t know what you had in mind, JanieM, but I’m still relieved/surprised that others from the AQ et al. didn’t take the example of the DC sniper as a guide.
Don’t know what you had in mind, JanieM, but I’m still relieved/surprised that others from the AQ et al. didn’t take the example of the DC sniper as a guide.
“Not to go all Thullen, but has anyone told him that in a lot of the country not-Republicans outnumber Republicans?”
He is so deep into the entitled faux heroics that…nothing else really matters except he got a lot of his ego jollies from feeling like he was part of a movement of real true Americans heroically fighting evil. I honestly think he is having a breakdown of some kind. According to the article quoted up thread there is a minority of Republicans who will vote Democratic if the Republican candidate is bad enough–obviously bad enough. The rest, like my neighbor, hate the rest of us so much they will vote R no matter what.
BTW I don’t see this neighbor much–he lives about a quarter mile away. I will not respond to anything else he says. His house is for sale. I’m not really worried that he will harm anyone. It is just bizarre to witness someone decompensating because of having invested so heavily in a fantasy. Humans are kind of terrifying, really.
“Not to go all Thullen, but has anyone told him that in a lot of the country not-Republicans outnumber Republicans?”
He is so deep into the entitled faux heroics that…nothing else really matters except he got a lot of his ego jollies from feeling like he was part of a movement of real true Americans heroically fighting evil. I honestly think he is having a breakdown of some kind. According to the article quoted up thread there is a minority of Republicans who will vote Democratic if the Republican candidate is bad enough–obviously bad enough. The rest, like my neighbor, hate the rest of us so much they will vote R no matter what.
BTW I don’t see this neighbor much–he lives about a quarter mile away. I will not respond to anything else he says. His house is for sale. I’m not really worried that he will harm anyone. It is just bizarre to witness someone decompensating because of having invested so heavily in a fantasy. Humans are kind of terrifying, really.
As I have told several times, over here in Berlin, Germany, embassy perosnnel and their families cause traffic accidents and incidents way above the average. Reckless driving, speeding, parking violations etc. The Persian Gulf states are top of the list by far but it seems a general problem that the idea of ‘I have immunity, rules are optional’ is widespread. With some states it’s SOP to get the perpetrators out of the country while the question of immunity is debated. I get the impression that (with the exception of the Gulf States) the majority of incidents is not caused by the actual diplomats but by either their relatives or lower embassy personnel.
—-
Don’t know what you had in mind, JanieM, but I’m still relieved/surprised that others from the AQ et al. didn’t take the example of the DC sniper as a guide.
Thank whatever higher being that those guys have the imagination of teens and think only of the spectacular (ending with their own ‘glorious’ death) not the effective or even a compromise like attacking one of the trains trains carrying e.g. chlorine through Washington on a regular base. If grafitti sprayers can tag those trains en route, some determined guys with fireamrs and some explosives should have no problems. And estimates are that such an attack would cause at least 10000 casualties in the first 30 minutes, so it would still have a high profile (although less than ‘plane into scyscraper’ admittedly).
Over here we were actually surprised that there were no follow-ups to 9/11 and shocked how this possibility was not taken seriously for quite some time*. So, if it had been us instead of these narcissist death seekers …
*and the authorities admitted to that, so it was not that we just did not see the countermeasures taken in secret.
As I have told several times, over here in Berlin, Germany, embassy perosnnel and their families cause traffic accidents and incidents way above the average. Reckless driving, speeding, parking violations etc. The Persian Gulf states are top of the list by far but it seems a general problem that the idea of ‘I have immunity, rules are optional’ is widespread. With some states it’s SOP to get the perpetrators out of the country while the question of immunity is debated. I get the impression that (with the exception of the Gulf States) the majority of incidents is not caused by the actual diplomats but by either their relatives or lower embassy personnel.
—-
Don’t know what you had in mind, JanieM, but I’m still relieved/surprised that others from the AQ et al. didn’t take the example of the DC sniper as a guide.
Thank whatever higher being that those guys have the imagination of teens and think only of the spectacular (ending with their own ‘glorious’ death) not the effective or even a compromise like attacking one of the trains trains carrying e.g. chlorine through Washington on a regular base. If grafitti sprayers can tag those trains en route, some determined guys with fireamrs and some explosives should have no problems. And estimates are that such an attack would cause at least 10000 casualties in the first 30 minutes, so it would still have a high profile (although less than ‘plane into scyscraper’ admittedly).
Over here we were actually surprised that there were no follow-ups to 9/11 and shocked how this possibility was not taken seriously for quite some time*. So, if it had been us instead of these narcissist death seekers …
*and the authorities admitted to that, so it was not that we just did not see the countermeasures taken in secret.
and the authorities admitted to that
And you believed them? Certainly it was talked about by ordinary people that there might be more where that came from, at least the ordinary people I knew.
and the authorities admitted to that
And you believed them? Certainly it was talked about by ordinary people that there might be more where that came from, at least the ordinary people I knew.
You can check when cars and large backpacks were banned from the Staten Island Ferry. It was weeks after 9/11. A reprter followed graffiti artists around when they tagged chem trains without any interference from guards, police etc.
And at least there was nothing public about guarding the tracks of the passenger trains* that took over from some of the short range air traffic (e.g. Washington-NY City) while air traffic was gounded (apart from the plane of course that brought Bin Laden’s relatives back home to Saudi Arabia so they would not be inconvenienced by the public or the federal police).
Imo it was 100% predictable that all attention would be on air traffic after 9/11 thus opening the opportunity for other targets.
*Can’t remember details but iirc there were the ususal incidents normal for all long train tracks some of which would not have happened, if the lines had been under constant guard. If US trains are like modern ones over here, they have just sensors for large objects on the tracks but not for e.g. loads of explosives hidden under it to be detonated right in front of an incoming trains.
You can check when cars and large backpacks were banned from the Staten Island Ferry. It was weeks after 9/11. A reprter followed graffiti artists around when they tagged chem trains without any interference from guards, police etc.
And at least there was nothing public about guarding the tracks of the passenger trains* that took over from some of the short range air traffic (e.g. Washington-NY City) while air traffic was gounded (apart from the plane of course that brought Bin Laden’s relatives back home to Saudi Arabia so they would not be inconvenienced by the public or the federal police).
Imo it was 100% predictable that all attention would be on air traffic after 9/11 thus opening the opportunity for other targets.
*Can’t remember details but iirc there were the ususal incidents normal for all long train tracks some of which would not have happened, if the lines had been under constant guard. If US trains are like modern ones over here, they have just sensors for large objects on the tracks but not for e.g. loads of explosives hidden under it to be detonated right in front of an incoming trains.
Oh,and Kyrsten Sinema is doing the Liebermann.
Let’s see, whether Manchin will do the same.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/happens-now-arizonas-kyrsten-sinema-no-longer-dem-rcna60916
Oh,and Kyrsten Sinema is doing the Liebermann.
Let’s see, whether Manchin will do the same.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/happens-now-arizonas-kyrsten-sinema-no-longer-dem-rcna60916
Oh,and Kyrsten Sinema is doing the Liebermann.
Let’s see, whether Manchin will do the same.
Lieberman, whether you agree with his policies and politics or not, was at least a serious legislator. Sinema, as far as one can tell, is far more interested in the performance than the actual job.
Well, at least Warnock’s win means she can’t just announce she will caucus with the Republicans, and so put McConnell back in charge of the Senate. Perhaps why she waited until now — seeing whether she would have that kind of leverage or not.
Oh,and Kyrsten Sinema is doing the Liebermann.
Let’s see, whether Manchin will do the same.
Lieberman, whether you agree with his policies and politics or not, was at least a serious legislator. Sinema, as far as one can tell, is far more interested in the performance than the actual job.
Well, at least Warnock’s win means she can’t just announce she will caucus with the Republicans, and so put McConnell back in charge of the Senate. Perhaps why she waited until now — seeing whether she would have that kind of leverage or not.
Never mind ethics. Here’s why no lawyer with any sense wants to work for Trump:
Justice Department asks judge to hold Trump team in contempt over Mar-a-Lago case
Never mind ethics. Here’s why no lawyer with any sense wants to work for Trump:
Justice Department asks judge to hold Trump team in contempt over Mar-a-Lago case
@wj, someone sent me this, don’t know where it’s from but probably DKos. At least she’s going to caucus with the Ds:
@wj, someone sent me this, don’t know where it’s from but probably DKos. At least she’s going to caucus with the Ds:
JanieM, I suspect that avoiding a (probably successful) primary challenge was the main driver. Of course, that’s partly, or maybe mostly, about holding on to a big stage for attention seeking for an additional 6 years.
JanieM, I suspect that avoiding a (probably successful) primary challenge was the main driver. Of course, that’s partly, or maybe mostly, about holding on to a big stage for attention seeking for an additional 6 years.
The GOP successfully hit one of its major political targets. No mandatory COVID vaccination for US service members anymore!
Despite their false insistence that this vaccination mandate was unprecedented and scandalous, other mandatory vacc shots remain mandatory. COVID was the only thing these guys were interested in.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/gop-scrapped-covid-vaccine-requirements-us-troops-rcna60959
The GOP successfully hit one of its major political targets. No mandatory COVID vaccination for US service members anymore!
Despite their false insistence that this vaccination mandate was unprecedented and scandalous, other mandatory vacc shots remain mandatory. COVID was the only thing these guys were interested in.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/gop-scrapped-covid-vaccine-requirements-us-troops-rcna60959
The GOP successfully hit one of its major political targets. No mandatory COVID vaccination for US service members anymore!
I’ve seen speculation that this provision, along with some others, is likely to be removed from the bill while it’s in conference committee.
The GOP successfully hit one of its major political targets. No mandatory COVID vaccination for US service members anymore!
I’ve seen speculation that this provision, along with some others, is likely to be removed from the bill while it’s in conference committee.
I’ve seen speculation that this provision, along with some others, is likely to be removed from the bill while it’s in conference committee.
Why not? Putting it in now accomplished the desired posturing. That’s all that matters. No need to keep it in during reconciliation, when nobody is watching anyway.
I’ve seen speculation that this provision, along with some others, is likely to be removed from the bill while it’s in conference committee.
Why not? Putting it in now accomplished the desired posturing. That’s all that matters. No need to keep it in during reconciliation, when nobody is watching anyway.
The only good thing about the Sinema Show is that she waited until after the runoff to announce. Had she announced before, it would have added fuel to the right for voting.
She gets a grudging nod for avoiding that.
The only good thing about the Sinema Show is that she waited until after the runoff to announce. Had she announced before, it would have added fuel to the right for voting.
She gets a grudging nod for avoiding that.
The hill they want others to die on, I presume.
Since the cases of soldiers refusing the shot (getting fired* for it and then reinstated by hackish court decision) seem all to revolve around the canard of religious freedom, I wonder if this is aimed for SCOTUS again. What ridiculous reasoning could Alito display this time? Maybe that Washington’s orders for mandatory vaccination of his troops preceded the constitution and became invalidated by it. Or that pox are small but Covid is long, so they are completely different cases.
*pun unintended
The hill they want others to die on, I presume.
Since the cases of soldiers refusing the shot (getting fired* for it and then reinstated by hackish court decision) seem all to revolve around the canard of religious freedom, I wonder if this is aimed for SCOTUS again. What ridiculous reasoning could Alito display this time? Maybe that Washington’s orders for mandatory vaccination of his troops preceded the constitution and became invalidated by it. Or that pox are small but Covid is long, so they are completely different cases.
*pun unintended
I thought soldiers were supposed to follow lawful orders. The vaccine wasn’t illegal. You can tell them to risk life and limb and to kill other human beings. But an inoculation is too much to ask. Feh…
I thought soldiers were supposed to follow lawful orders. The vaccine wasn’t illegal. You can tell them to risk life and limb and to kill other human beings. But an inoculation is too much to ask. Feh…
No need to keep it in during reconciliation, when nobody is watching anyway.
This bill is not being handled under reconciliation rules. Technically it’s an authorization bill that sets policy and programs. There will still have to be an appropriations bill to actually make the money available.
No need to keep it in during reconciliation, when nobody is watching anyway.
This bill is not being handled under reconciliation rules. Technically it’s an authorization bill that sets policy and programs. There will still have to be an appropriations bill to actually make the money available.
On an entirely separate subject, I have just read an article in the Times about which I am highly suspicious, for reasons too numerous to list at the moment. And, again for paywall reasons, I won’t copy and paste it unless necessary. It is about Hunter Biden’s laptop, and what particularly interests me is not the issue of how the story was suppressed etc (that does seem to be a scandal, and to deserve uncovering), but instead whether it is really true (as the story suggests) that there is truly damaging stuff on the laptop about Joe, both financial and otherwise. Without going searching yet, I wondered what the opinion of ObWiers is: any of you who care to comment, is it your view from what you’ve read that there is anything really serious against Joe Biden? I’m bound to say, I would never have had him down as financially corrupt….
On an entirely separate subject, I have just read an article in the Times about which I am highly suspicious, for reasons too numerous to list at the moment. And, again for paywall reasons, I won’t copy and paste it unless necessary. It is about Hunter Biden’s laptop, and what particularly interests me is not the issue of how the story was suppressed etc (that does seem to be a scandal, and to deserve uncovering), but instead whether it is really true (as the story suggests) that there is truly damaging stuff on the laptop about Joe, both financial and otherwise. Without going searching yet, I wondered what the opinion of ObWiers is: any of you who care to comment, is it your view from what you’ve read that there is anything really serious against Joe Biden? I’m bound to say, I would never have had him down as financially corrupt….
is it your view from what you’ve read that there is anything really serious against Joe Biden?
My sense is that Joe Biden’s son leveraged his name for financial gain. Which is personally negative about him, but not necessarily about his father. An unfortunate number of children (or brothers or other, more distant relatives) of politicians try to leverage the name of their prominent relative. Nothing new there. This in contrast to President Trump (and, of course, his relatives) leveraging his position for personal gain.
I’ve yet to seen anything that suggests that Joe Biden himself has been involved in anything like that. But then, I don’t spend time in the conspiracy theory far right media.
I expect that there will be Congressional investigations. I expect that the laptop will prove to have various negative things on it, whether financial or unclad pictures (the latest “scandal”) or whatever. I expect that nothing real about President Biden will appear.
is it your view from what you’ve read that there is anything really serious against Joe Biden?
My sense is that Joe Biden’s son leveraged his name for financial gain. Which is personally negative about him, but not necessarily about his father. An unfortunate number of children (or brothers or other, more distant relatives) of politicians try to leverage the name of their prominent relative. Nothing new there. This in contrast to President Trump (and, of course, his relatives) leveraging his position for personal gain.
I’ve yet to seen anything that suggests that Joe Biden himself has been involved in anything like that. But then, I don’t spend time in the conspiracy theory far right media.
I expect that there will be Congressional investigations. I expect that the laptop will prove to have various negative things on it, whether financial or unclad pictures (the latest “scandal”) or whatever. I expect that nothing real about President Biden will appear.
My sense of the HB scandal is that he name dropped his pops a lot and implied that people would have access to Joe’s attention, but there wasn’t anything specific in any of it that would indicate that Joe took an active role in any of what Hunter was doing.
Could make for an awkward appearance of conflict, and I’m fully expecting that the conspiracistst try to make all of this appear to connect with Maidan and a CIA attempt to topple a Moscow-friendly Ukraine government through the son of the VP. But that seems more tenuous even than the near-hookup between the Trump campaign and russia over the email server business.
My sense of the HB scandal is that he name dropped his pops a lot and implied that people would have access to Joe’s attention, but there wasn’t anything specific in any of it that would indicate that Joe took an active role in any of what Hunter was doing.
Could make for an awkward appearance of conflict, and I’m fully expecting that the conspiracistst try to make all of this appear to connect with Maidan and a CIA attempt to topple a Moscow-friendly Ukraine government through the son of the VP. But that seems more tenuous even than the near-hookup between the Trump campaign and russia over the email server business.
I thought soldiers were supposed to follow lawful orders.
According to some emanations visible only to the truly initiated this always carries the caveat of “They can ignore those lawful orders if they
a) say that it violates their religious convictions
b) they are of a proper religion (only certain Kristian(TM) sects meet that condition).
If those conditions are met, it is not allowed to
a) question those convictions in any way
b) apply disciplinary measures of any kind.”
——
As far as the Hunter laptop story goes, my opinion is: If there was any real bombshell on it, it would have been used by now. The mere fact that the Right cries havoc constantly but there are no actual dogs in sight gives me the impression that there is nothing actually damaging and definitely no proof of actual crimes (let alone ones that could be tied to Biden senior).
This does not change the fact that Hunter’s activities in Ukraine and the perks he got seem to have little to do with any qualifications he had. I assume that he got a sinecure to carry favor with his dad. But I truly doubt that Biden senior did any quid pro quo. He does not seem the guy for this kind of petty corruption.
I thought soldiers were supposed to follow lawful orders.
According to some emanations visible only to the truly initiated this always carries the caveat of “They can ignore those lawful orders if they
a) say that it violates their religious convictions
b) they are of a proper religion (only certain Kristian(TM) sects meet that condition).
If those conditions are met, it is not allowed to
a) question those convictions in any way
b) apply disciplinary measures of any kind.”
——
As far as the Hunter laptop story goes, my opinion is: If there was any real bombshell on it, it would have been used by now. The mere fact that the Right cries havoc constantly but there are no actual dogs in sight gives me the impression that there is nothing actually damaging and definitely no proof of actual crimes (let alone ones that could be tied to Biden senior).
This does not change the fact that Hunter’s activities in Ukraine and the perks he got seem to have little to do with any qualifications he had. I assume that he got a sinecure to carry favor with his dad. But I truly doubt that Biden senior did any quid pro quo. He does not seem the guy for this kind of petty corruption.
I might add that I would not trust any contents presented that allegedly were stored on that laptop.
Given the ‘chain of custody’ (or lack thereof) anything could simply be fake. So, even if there was lots of compromising stuff on it in the first place, the fact that there was ample time and opportunity to meddle with the device imo completely devalues it.
I might add that I would not trust any contents presented that allegedly were stored on that laptop.
Given the ‘chain of custody’ (or lack thereof) anything could simply be fake. So, even if there was lots of compromising stuff on it in the first place, the fact that there was ample time and opportunity to meddle with the device imo completely devalues it.
Thanks wj, nous and Hartmut, for giving your opinions. I had assumed much the same as you all, and the article seemed so dodgy it did not inspire confidence. But it said there were comments in Hunter’s emails in which he said or implied that he was having to give his father some of the take, and that worried me (although as I said, it rang false to me. But I was worried that was just my bias.)
Thanks wj, nous and Hartmut, for giving your opinions. I had assumed much the same as you all, and the article seemed so dodgy it did not inspire confidence. But it said there were comments in Hunter’s emails in which he said or implied that he was having to give his father some of the take, and that worried me (although as I said, it rang false to me. But I was worried that was just my bias.)
Totally agree with Hartmut’s 3:37. In fact, I usually roll my eyes and turn to something useful or at least entertaining when Hunter Biden’s laptop is mentioned. Or for that matter, when the punditing of pundits is mentioned.
On this occasion, I did look up the author of the piece GftNC referred to: Douglas Murray is his name. He’s a pal of Orban; you can look up the rest if you need to know more. Generally he’s someone whose “analysis” I would not expect to be offered in good faith, or to get anywhere near to being a dispassionate look at whatever truth there is underlying the murk that has been deliberately created to befog this topic, if indeed there ever was a topic to begin with.
Sort of like a McKinney on steroids.
For a different approach to the latest Hunter Biden uproar, here’s Adam Silverman at BJ, in his nightly Ukraine update on December 3:
There are links in Silverman’s post that don’t come through the copy/paste. Go to the post if you care about his sources.
Totally agree with Hartmut’s 3:37. In fact, I usually roll my eyes and turn to something useful or at least entertaining when Hunter Biden’s laptop is mentioned. Or for that matter, when the punditing of pundits is mentioned.
On this occasion, I did look up the author of the piece GftNC referred to: Douglas Murray is his name. He’s a pal of Orban; you can look up the rest if you need to know more. Generally he’s someone whose “analysis” I would not expect to be offered in good faith, or to get anywhere near to being a dispassionate look at whatever truth there is underlying the murk that has been deliberately created to befog this topic, if indeed there ever was a topic to begin with.
Sort of like a McKinney on steroids.
For a different approach to the latest Hunter Biden uproar, here’s Adam Silverman at BJ, in his nightly Ukraine update on December 3:
There are links in Silverman’s post that don’t come through the copy/paste. Go to the post if you care about his sources.
Adam’s material was more directly relevant to the original Hunter Biden uproar two years ago, with a connection he’s drawing to diversionary tactics online that are happening again now.
He doesn’t make an explicit connection, but my understanding is that this most recent HB hoo-ha also included … sorry … dick pics that were allegedly from HB’s laptop, and I don’t know if Adam meant to connect those with the Chinese porn tweets or not. (I did not read Adam’s sources material, but I trust Adam’s integrity even if I don’t always share his opinions.)
I don’t see how anyone can imagine that they know the “truth” about any aspect of the HB laptop ruckus. It’s a ridiculously manufactured and deliberately distorted “story” that seems to have about as much trustworthiness or validity as the notion that the 2020 election was stolen.
Adam’s material was more directly relevant to the original Hunter Biden uproar two years ago, with a connection he’s drawing to diversionary tactics online that are happening again now.
He doesn’t make an explicit connection, but my understanding is that this most recent HB hoo-ha also included … sorry … dick pics that were allegedly from HB’s laptop, and I don’t know if Adam meant to connect those with the Chinese porn tweets or not. (I did not read Adam’s sources material, but I trust Adam’s integrity even if I don’t always share his opinions.)
I don’t see how anyone can imagine that they know the “truth” about any aspect of the HB laptop ruckus. It’s a ridiculously manufactured and deliberately distorted “story” that seems to have about as much trustworthiness or validity as the notion that the 2020 election was stolen.
What Hartmut said about chain of custody. Lots of intelligence organizations can do very good forgeries of hard disk contents. I would be very disappointed if the NSA or CIA can’t do an excellent job of it.
What Hartmut said about chain of custody. Lots of intelligence organizations can do very good forgeries of hard disk contents. I would be very disappointed if the NSA or CIA can’t do an excellent job of it.
I looked up Douglas Murray after my last comment. He seems to be someone with a history of many appalling views, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the source for some of the stuff in McKinney’s recent reference to HB’s laptop. He may also have been partly the source for Donald’s recent comments on the suppression of the laptop story, since I see that Matt Taibbi is one of the colleagues he quotes. Unfortunately, he does appear at times in the past to have been right about certain stuff he has written, taken pushback for, and then been vindicated when the source material came out. Let’s hope that’s not the case here.
I looked up Douglas Murray after my last comment. He seems to be someone with a history of many appalling views, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the source for some of the stuff in McKinney’s recent reference to HB’s laptop. He may also have been partly the source for Donald’s recent comments on the suppression of the laptop story, since I see that Matt Taibbi is one of the colleagues he quotes. Unfortunately, he does appear at times in the past to have been right about certain stuff he has written, taken pushback for, and then been vindicated when the source material came out. Let’s hope that’s not the case here.
It’s a ridiculously manufactured and deliberately distorted “story” that seems to have about as much trustworthiness or validity as the notion that the 2020 election was stolen.
FYLTGE
And, I would add, I hope it has as much trustworthiness or validity as the story that HRC has a long history of criminal activity which has somehow, by some miracle, despite the best efforts of the GOP gone unproven and unpunished.
It’s a ridiculously manufactured and deliberately distorted “story” that seems to have about as much trustworthiness or validity as the notion that the 2020 election was stolen.
FYLTGE
And, I would add, I hope it has as much trustworthiness or validity as the story that HRC has a long history of criminal activity which has somehow, by some miracle, despite the best efforts of the GOP gone unproven and unpunished.
I refuse to read anything about HB and I will not read any “news” mag that treats it like a legitimate story. Republicans sucker the rest of us into promoting their crap by discussing their crap.
The real scandal is that for six years nearly every REpublican covered for or collaborated with Trump and they hounded out of the party most of the very few who didn’t.
The Republican party should not be allowed to rebrand as the not Trump Republicans. THey were just as toxic and corrupt before Trump, were toxic and corrupt during TRump, and are toxic and corrupt now.
I refuse to read anything about HB and I will not read any “news” mag that treats it like a legitimate story. Republicans sucker the rest of us into promoting their crap by discussing their crap.
The real scandal is that for six years nearly every REpublican covered for or collaborated with Trump and they hounded out of the party most of the very few who didn’t.
The Republican party should not be allowed to rebrand as the not Trump Republicans. THey were just as toxic and corrupt before Trump, were toxic and corrupt during TRump, and are toxic and corrupt now.
Don’t know when I last laughed this hard. H/T Anne Laurie at BJ:
Teaser:
Don’t know when I last laughed this hard. H/T Anne Laurie at BJ:
Teaser:
Here’s a piece in the Guardian from a while back that lays out the gist of the HB complaints:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings
It’s messy and could land HB in some hot water of the same sort that got other influence peddlers in a jam.
I, for the record, have no problem with anyone investigating HB to see if he needs to amend taxes or declare himself a foreign agent during the period in question – so long as those rules get followed for everyone else with a finger in the pie as well.
Kick in some scrutiny to congressional insider trading while we are at it.
Here’s a piece in the Guardian from a while back that lays out the gist of the HB complaints:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings
It’s messy and could land HB in some hot water of the same sort that got other influence peddlers in a jam.
I, for the record, have no problem with anyone investigating HB to see if he needs to amend taxes or declare himself a foreign agent during the period in question – so long as those rules get followed for everyone else with a finger in the pie as well.
Kick in some scrutiny to congressional insider trading while we are at it.
I wonder, if someone who is peddling “influence” turns out not to have any, could the people who paid him charge fraud? (Not that, in the real world, they would be likely to admit that they tried to buy influence. But hypothetically….)
I wonder, if someone who is peddling “influence” turns out not to have any, could the people who paid him charge fraud? (Not that, in the real world, they would be likely to admit that they tried to buy influence. But hypothetically….)
It’s messy and could land HB in some hot water of the same sort that got other influence peddlers in a jam.
If the House Republicans go down that path, I won’t be unhappy if the Senate Democrats call in Jared Kushner and require him to reveal everywhere the Saudi $2B went, and show that he received no benefit from that, direct or indirect.
Well, I will be unhappy, because a 2.5 °C temperature increase is bearing down on us, and we’re doing basically nothing significant. There’s no place that’s safe from the kind of extreme weather events that sort of total atmospheric energy increase is going to drive.
It’s messy and could land HB in some hot water of the same sort that got other influence peddlers in a jam.
If the House Republicans go down that path, I won’t be unhappy if the Senate Democrats call in Jared Kushner and require him to reveal everywhere the Saudi $2B went, and show that he received no benefit from that, direct or indirect.
Well, I will be unhappy, because a 2.5 °C temperature increase is bearing down on us, and we’re doing basically nothing significant. There’s no place that’s safe from the kind of extreme weather events that sort of total atmospheric energy increase is going to drive.
Petards all around!
Petards all around!
There’s no place that’s safe from the kind of extreme weather events that sort of total atmospheric energy increase is going to drive.
Absolutely including Florida, where so many climate change denialists seem to be choosing to spend their golden years.
There’s no place that’s safe from the kind of extreme weather events that sort of total atmospheric energy increase is going to drive.
Absolutely including Florida, where so many climate change denialists seem to be choosing to spend their golden years.
I, for the record, have no problem with anyone investigating HB to see if he needs to amend taxes or declare himself a foreign agent during the period in question – so long as those rules get followed for everyone else with a finger in the pie as well.
Agreed. And let’s hope there’s nothing more serious in the laptop than that February Guardian piece nous linked mentions, or at least nothing that will harm Joe if he decides to run again.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
I, for the record, have no problem with anyone investigating HB to see if he needs to amend taxes or declare himself a foreign agent during the period in question – so long as those rules get followed for everyone else with a finger in the pie as well.
Agreed. And let’s hope there’s nothing more serious in the laptop than that February Guardian piece nous linked mentions, or at least nothing that will harm Joe if he decides to run again.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
There is nothing unusual about family members of elected officials making bank off of that connection. It would completely unsurprising if Hunter Biden was among them.
If he broke the law, charge him. If illegal or unethical behavior extends to his father, likewise.
And then, let’s apply all of that consistently across the entire population of elected public officials.
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
Nobody likes that answer. So stuff like this will continue.
There is nothing unusual about family members of elected officials making bank off of that connection. It would completely unsurprising if Hunter Biden was among them.
If he broke the law, charge him. If illegal or unethical behavior extends to his father, likewise.
And then, let’s apply all of that consistently across the entire population of elected public officials.
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
Nobody likes that answer. So stuff like this will continue.
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
Although that would be nice, it would not be legally possible this way around. It would in essence mean that a person by running for office could force all close relatives out of their jobs, if they happen to have those that could create such conflict of interest. What would potentially be possible is banning people from running for office, if close relatives already are in such a position since there is no inalienable right to be an elected official.
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
Although that would be nice, it would not be legally possible this way around. It would in essence mean that a person by running for office could force all close relatives out of their jobs, if they happen to have those that could create such conflict of interest. What would potentially be possible is banning people from running for office, if close relatives already are in such a position since there is no inalienable right to be an elected official.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he [Biden] should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
First, a lot can change in two years. With that (enormous!) caveat, I’d say
a) Sure, if he wants to. There’s no obvious advantage to dumping a President of your own party after 1 term. Unless he’s a nutcase like Trump, which Biden manifestly isn’t. So far, he’s getting the job done pretty successfully. Especially given the state of things in the Senate these past two years.
b) If not Biden (excluding the case where events cause Harris to succeed him before then), who?
First, I have serious reservations about Harris’ campaigning skills. Granted, she may have learned a lot since the 2020 primaries. But still.
Then, I’d incline to exclude current senators. Both because control of the Senate is going to be hard enough to maintain already (the map is really bad for 2024) and because I think that a President should have, needs, some demonstrated executive ability. Biden and Obama, granted, are exceptions there. But I’d hate to bet on getting lucky a third time.
Which leaves Governors and cabinet members. So, topping my list are
1) Governor Whitmer of Michigan
2) Secretary of Transportation Buttigeig (possibly because of how amusing it would be to watch the Christianist right totally lose it)
There are doubtless more, but I’m not sufficiently familiar with them all to pick and choose. I would say that going with someone in the next generation, say 45-60 years old, would seem to be a plus.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he [Biden] should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
First, a lot can change in two years. With that (enormous!) caveat, I’d say
a) Sure, if he wants to. There’s no obvious advantage to dumping a President of your own party after 1 term. Unless he’s a nutcase like Trump, which Biden manifestly isn’t. So far, he’s getting the job done pretty successfully. Especially given the state of things in the Senate these past two years.
b) If not Biden (excluding the case where events cause Harris to succeed him before then), who?
First, I have serious reservations about Harris’ campaigning skills. Granted, she may have learned a lot since the 2020 primaries. But still.
Then, I’d incline to exclude current senators. Both because control of the Senate is going to be hard enough to maintain already (the map is really bad for 2024) and because I think that a President should have, needs, some demonstrated executive ability. Biden and Obama, granted, are exceptions there. But I’d hate to bet on getting lucky a third time.
Which leaves Governors and cabinet members. So, topping my list are
1) Governor Whitmer of Michigan
2) Secretary of Transportation Buttigeig (possibly because of how amusing it would be to watch the Christianist right totally lose it)
There are doubtless more, but I’m not sufficiently familiar with them all to pick and choose. I would say that going with someone in the next generation, say 45-60 years old, would seem to be a plus.
By now I assume that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee, not Jabbabonk the Orange (by then it will be safe for the establishment to drop the latter).
So, one should at least consider, whether a potential Dem candidate has considerable advantages or disadvantages against him. Against the Orange One I see as the main quality to be able to trigger him effectively. The more insane the triggered rants get the better. Against the Floridian someone who can most effectively and credibly say “You sir, are a monster!” and use “despicable” without Daffy Duck vibes would be especially good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfsTk5i7mPw
By now I assume that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee, not Jabbabonk the Orange (by then it will be safe for the establishment to drop the latter).
So, one should at least consider, whether a potential Dem candidate has considerable advantages or disadvantages against him. Against the Orange One I see as the main quality to be able to trigger him effectively. The more insane the triggered rants get the better. Against the Floridian someone who can most effectively and credibly say “You sir, are a monster!” and use “despicable” without Daffy Duck vibes would be especially good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfsTk5i7mPw
By now I assume that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee, not Jabbabonk the Orange (by then it will be safe for the establishment to drop the latter).
No way. If Trump is alive and conscious, it won’t be safe to nominate anyone else. Consider his overwhelming need for attention — and adulation, but that’s strictly secondary to mere attention. He’ll try for the nomination. If he doesn’t get it, he’ll run as an independent/spoiler. Sure, if he doesn’t get the nomination he could, theoretically, just tell his supporters to stay home. But that would only be revenge, not attention. He’ll desperately want both. So he runs.
By now I assume that DeSantis will be the GOP nominee, not Jabbabonk the Orange (by then it will be safe for the establishment to drop the latter).
No way. If Trump is alive and conscious, it won’t be safe to nominate anyone else. Consider his overwhelming need for attention — and adulation, but that’s strictly secondary to mere attention. He’ll try for the nomination. If he doesn’t get it, he’ll run as an independent/spoiler. Sure, if he doesn’t get the nomination he could, theoretically, just tell his supporters to stay home. But that would only be revenge, not attention. He’ll desperately want both. So he runs.
First, a lot can change in two years.
Barring another coup attempt or worse, in two years the whole thing will be over.
The relevant time frame is barely more than a year from now. Clickbait has already registered as a candidate. The first D primary is currently scheduled for Feb. 3, 2024, in South Carolina (acc’ to Wikipedia).
A lot can still happen, but we are already sliding into the intenser phase of the forever campaign.
First, a lot can change in two years.
Barring another coup attempt or worse, in two years the whole thing will be over.
The relevant time frame is barely more than a year from now. Clickbait has already registered as a candidate. The first D primary is currently scheduled for Feb. 3, 2024, in South Carolina (acc’ to Wikipedia).
A lot can still happen, but we are already sliding into the intenser phase of the forever campaign.
My only knock on Whitmer isn’t so much a knock as it’s just that if we’re going to run a governor I’d like to run a governor from a booming state. Not one where the population has barely budged in 20 years. From 2002, my medium-sized city has added more people in absolute numbers than Michigan has.
My only knock on Whitmer isn’t so much a knock as it’s just that if we’re going to run a governor I’d like to run a governor from a booming state. Not one where the population has barely budged in 20 years. From 2002, my medium-sized city has added more people in absolute numbers than Michigan has.
Michael, are you offering up your governor?
Spoiler alert: I definitely do not want Newsom to(the governor here) be the Democratic nominee. I’d instantly vote for him over Trump or DeSantis or any of that ilk, of course. But it would be painful. And the country simply doesn’t need an empty suit at the top at this point.
Michael, are you offering up your governor?
Spoiler alert: I definitely do not want Newsom to(the governor here) be the Democratic nominee. I’d instantly vote for him over Trump or DeSantis or any of that ilk, of course. But it would be painful. And the country simply doesn’t need an empty suit at the top at this point.
I have the same reaction to Newsome. He reminds me of John Edwards, and he reminded me of a used car salesman. That said, I don’t know that Newsome IS an empty suit, but I strongly disapprove of nominating someone who LOOKS like one. Appearances, like it or not, matter in elections.
I have the same reaction to Newsome. He reminds me of John Edwards, and he reminded me of a used car salesman. That said, I don’t know that Newsome IS an empty suit, but I strongly disapprove of nominating someone who LOOKS like one. Appearances, like it or not, matter in elections.
So I’m going down the list from memory, which guarantees it’s going to be incomplete, trying to filter for Dem governor, starting at least second term, booming state. Let booming stand for “too damned many people have moved here over the last 20 years”. Inslee in Washington, Brown in Oregon, Newsom in Califonia, Polis in Colorado, what’s-his-name in North Carolina. Who am I missing?
So I’m going down the list from memory, which guarantees it’s going to be incomplete, trying to filter for Dem governor, starting at least second term, booming state. Let booming stand for “too damned many people have moved here over the last 20 years”. Inslee in Washington, Brown in Oregon, Newsom in Califonia, Polis in Colorado, what’s-his-name in North Carolina. Who am I missing?
banning people from running for office, if close relatives already are in such a position since there is no inalienable right to be an elected official.
Works for me.
banning people from running for office, if close relatives already are in such a position since there is no inalienable right to be an elected official.
Works for me.
Gosh, Hartmut, if you’re around: I’ve just seen a trailer for an extraordinary German documentary called Mr Bachmann and His Class, which has apparently won many awards. It looks fantastic – have you heard of it? I think you are a teacher, or planning to teach? This sounds like a profoundly important film dealing with what can be achieved by teachers, even in challenging (in this case I think multi-cultural and multi-lingual) situations.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/dec/11/mr-bachmann-and-his-class-review-extraordinary-documentary-about-a-brilliant-teacher
Gosh, Hartmut, if you’re around: I’ve just seen a trailer for an extraordinary German documentary called Mr Bachmann and His Class, which has apparently won many awards. It looks fantastic – have you heard of it? I think you are a teacher, or planning to teach? This sounds like a profoundly important film dealing with what can be achieved by teachers, even in challenging (in this case I think multi-cultural and multi-lingual) situations.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/dec/11/mr-bachmann-and-his-class-review-extraordinary-documentary-about-a-brilliant-teacher
I have not actually heard of that one. Will check when I can fit it in my schedule.
Extremly multinational classes have become very common over here but there is a huge difference whether the kids have grown up here or not. In my current Latin class I have also at least 12 different nations/ethnic backgrounds but the kids are all fluent in German. I know of other schools in town where those fluent in German are a tiny minority, so it would in theory be necessary that all teachers would at least speak Turkish and Arabic to a degree. At the school I am at the moment the only difficulty are the ‘welcome classes’ for mainly Ukrainian kids that have yet to learn German while we have pretty few teachers that speak either Ukrainian or Russian.
I would have huge difficulties in dealing with kids that are not fluent since I have a tendency towards a more elaborate style of talking with ample use of words slightly old-fashioned.
Being a teacher-in-training I face the problem that I have little leeway to do it my way since there are rather fixed expectations. I have to please the examiners with their ideas of how things should be doen, even if I get positive feedback from the kids for what strongly displeases the ones who will actually grade my performance. Which does of course not mean that I am particularly good. I am far from an ideal schoolteacher and would be completely lost at certain other schools co-students of mine ended up for this final part (18 months) of training.
My own niece is already a finished teacher, so I am rather old and unacquainted with the world of the kids of to-day (a living fossil from the 20th century).
I have not actually heard of that one. Will check when I can fit it in my schedule.
Extremly multinational classes have become very common over here but there is a huge difference whether the kids have grown up here or not. In my current Latin class I have also at least 12 different nations/ethnic backgrounds but the kids are all fluent in German. I know of other schools in town where those fluent in German are a tiny minority, so it would in theory be necessary that all teachers would at least speak Turkish and Arabic to a degree. At the school I am at the moment the only difficulty are the ‘welcome classes’ for mainly Ukrainian kids that have yet to learn German while we have pretty few teachers that speak either Ukrainian or Russian.
I would have huge difficulties in dealing with kids that are not fluent since I have a tendency towards a more elaborate style of talking with ample use of words slightly old-fashioned.
Being a teacher-in-training I face the problem that I have little leeway to do it my way since there are rather fixed expectations. I have to please the examiners with their ideas of how things should be doen, even if I get positive feedback from the kids for what strongly displeases the ones who will actually grade my performance. Which does of course not mean that I am particularly good. I am far from an ideal schoolteacher and would be completely lost at certain other schools co-students of mine ended up for this final part (18 months) of training.
My own niece is already a finished teacher, so I am rather old and unacquainted with the world of the kids of to-day (a living fossil from the 20th century).
Really hard to resist generating different sorts of counts once there’s a copy of all the content in my hands :^)
Really hard to resist generating different sorts of counts once there’s a copy of all the content in my hands :^)
A bright spot for your day
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/dec/11/rupert-murdoch-fox-dominion-lawsuit-deposition
It seems Rupert is going to have to answer questions, under oath, about the lies on Fox News about voter fraud.
A bright spot for your day
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/dec/11/rupert-murdoch-fox-dominion-lawsuit-deposition
It seems Rupert is going to have to answer questions, under oath, about the lies on Fox News about voter fraud.
appears to be building a wider case that Fox News has a long history of misinformation and steamrolling facts that do not fit its editorial line.
We can only hope.
appears to be building a wider case that Fox News has a long history of misinformation and steamrolling facts that do not fit its editorial line.
We can only hope.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he [Biden] should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
Of course he shouldn’t run: he’s too old to do the job properly. He was too old last time, and there have been four more years of decline.
However, if he’s the best chance to beat the Republican candidate, he should run anyway, because the last two Republican presidents have been disastrous. (I don’t know much about DeSantis, but what I do know is bad.)
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
I don’t know what’s legally possible. but I suggest that decent policians (that may mean D politicans only) should undertake that if they’re elected, members of their family will not accept paid work which appears to be exploiting their connection. And their family should join in the undertaking.
Talking of which, how does everybody (anybody) feel about a) whether he [Biden] should run, and b) if not, who else might be a good choice and have a shot?
Of course he shouldn’t run: he’s too old to do the job properly. He was too old last time, and there have been four more years of decline.
However, if he’s the best chance to beat the Republican candidate, he should run anyway, because the last two Republican presidents have been disastrous. (I don’t know much about DeSantis, but what I do know is bad.)
There is an answer for this kind of problem: prohibit family members of elected officials from holding positions – as employees or otherwise – that can create a conflict of interest for the elected official.
I don’t know what’s legally possible. but I suggest that decent policians (that may mean D politicans only) should undertake that if they’re elected, members of their family will not accept paid work which appears to be exploiting their connection. And their family should join in the undertaking.
he’s too old to do the job properly. He was too old last time, and there have been four more years of decline.
The trouble with this thesis is that he’s been doing the job properly. Not just better than his predecessor — which is a ridiculously low bar, considering the TFG has displaced Buchanan as our worst President ever. He’s arguably the most effective President we’ve had since Johnson. This despite dealing with a 50-50 Senate, and a couple of loose cannon Senators from his own party. (In particular Sinema. Manchin’s views differ from most here. But at least he’s more interested in legislating than posturing.)
Plus, he’s done much to repair our relations with the rest of the world. Our allies are still twitchy at the chance that TFG, or someone similar, might crop up again. But at least we’ve seen things like a united front in Ukraine, including widespread sanctions that have held firm rather longer than the doomsayers forecast.
You can argue that he can’t keep it up. But consider that he’s been embarrassing those who thought he was too old to be effective back in 2020 when he was seeking the nomination. You probably shouldn’t bet the ranch on that one.
he’s too old to do the job properly. He was too old last time, and there have been four more years of decline.
The trouble with this thesis is that he’s been doing the job properly. Not just better than his predecessor — which is a ridiculously low bar, considering the TFG has displaced Buchanan as our worst President ever. He’s arguably the most effective President we’ve had since Johnson. This despite dealing with a 50-50 Senate, and a couple of loose cannon Senators from his own party. (In particular Sinema. Manchin’s views differ from most here. But at least he’s more interested in legislating than posturing.)
Plus, he’s done much to repair our relations with the rest of the world. Our allies are still twitchy at the chance that TFG, or someone similar, might crop up again. But at least we’ve seen things like a united front in Ukraine, including widespread sanctions that have held firm rather longer than the doomsayers forecast.
You can argue that he can’t keep it up. But consider that he’s been embarrassing those who thought he was too old to be effective back in 2020 when he was seeking the nomination. You probably shouldn’t bet the ranch on that one.
Acknowledging that the Orion capsule returned from its first flight to a successful splashdown in the Pacific. Next Artemis mission will be in about two years. One of the factors causing that delay is that some of the avionics electronics in this capsule will be reused in the second flight, but have to be fully tested and recertified for that. Test and certification is a 24-month effort…
Acknowledging that the Orion capsule returned from its first flight to a successful splashdown in the Pacific. Next Artemis mission will be in about two years. One of the factors causing that delay is that some of the avionics electronics in this capsule will be reused in the second flight, but have to be fully tested and recertified for that. Test and certification is a 24-month effort…
Gosh, I had no idea that the “gun safety lobby” (and in fact the significance of that naming) had achieved so much. The main article gives the history of how this has happened, for anybody as oblivious as I was:
The N.R.A. is not vanquished, but it is walking wounded. The primary battlegroun. d over gun legislation has been the statehouses, where Parkland set off a startling reversal. After decades of getting trounced by the N.R.A., activists saw 67 gun safety laws passed at the state level in 2019, compared with nine pro-gun laws. This year, 45 new gun safety laws have been adopted in states, while 95 percent of gun-lobby-linked bills have been blocked, according to an Everytown report.
Our power must be real now, because Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, warned his conference it was. Before the vote for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act this June, Mr. McConnell told his conference the game had changed. In a closed-door session, his team presented stunning internal polling of gun-owning households. He summarized it for reporters: “Support for the provisions of the framework is off the charts, overwhelming.”
And with that, the architect of the gun safety blockade in Congress blew a hole in it. He needed to peel off 10 of his senators, and he got 15. The law strengthens background checks, especially for people under age 21 and provides funding to carry out red flag laws and for mental health, school safety and violence interrupter programs.
That was just a start. Our anger, trained on Congress, can propel a string of initiatives to finally bring America’s shameful mass-shooting era nearer to a close.
For the first time in decades, Republicans in Congress are taking our demands seriously. They are finally less afraid of the N.R.A. than they are of us.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/opinion/sandy-hook-gun-safety.html
Gosh, I had no idea that the “gun safety lobby” (and in fact the significance of that naming) had achieved so much. The main article gives the history of how this has happened, for anybody as oblivious as I was:
The N.R.A. is not vanquished, but it is walking wounded. The primary battlegroun. d over gun legislation has been the statehouses, where Parkland set off a startling reversal. After decades of getting trounced by the N.R.A., activists saw 67 gun safety laws passed at the state level in 2019, compared with nine pro-gun laws. This year, 45 new gun safety laws have been adopted in states, while 95 percent of gun-lobby-linked bills have been blocked, according to an Everytown report.
Our power must be real now, because Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, warned his conference it was. Before the vote for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act this June, Mr. McConnell told his conference the game had changed. In a closed-door session, his team presented stunning internal polling of gun-owning households. He summarized it for reporters: “Support for the provisions of the framework is off the charts, overwhelming.”
And with that, the architect of the gun safety blockade in Congress blew a hole in it. He needed to peel off 10 of his senators, and he got 15. The law strengthens background checks, especially for people under age 21 and provides funding to carry out red flag laws and for mental health, school safety and violence interrupter programs.
That was just a start. Our anger, trained on Congress, can propel a string of initiatives to finally bring America’s shameful mass-shooting era nearer to a close.
For the first time in decades, Republicans in Congress are taking our demands seriously. They are finally less afraid of the N.R.A. than they are of us.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/opinion/sandy-hook-gun-safety.html
For the first time in decades, Republicans in Congress are taking our demands seriously. They are finally less afraid of the N.R.A. than they are of us.
Here’s the bind McConnell et al. are in.
– their party is now hostage to the crazies. Not just the gun nuts, but people who make simple gun nuts sound halfway sane.
– their party is, partly as a result, seriously in a minority. Their only hope at the national level is to avoid motivating generally moderate voters to bestir themselves to turn out and vote against them.
– few things get people motivated like a mass shooting in an elementary school. Which we keep having more of.
As a result of which, national level Republicans have to at least appear to be “doing something”. At a state level, politicians in Texas or Wyoming can cater to the gun nuts. But nationally, that’s a losing strategy.
So actually, the author is wrong. It’s not “us” (the people who have been trying for years to get reasonable gun control laws passed) that the GOP is afraid of. It’s the folks who have ignored the issue for years. But now have had it hit home.
For the first time in decades, Republicans in Congress are taking our demands seriously. They are finally less afraid of the N.R.A. than they are of us.
Here’s the bind McConnell et al. are in.
– their party is now hostage to the crazies. Not just the gun nuts, but people who make simple gun nuts sound halfway sane.
– their party is, partly as a result, seriously in a minority. Their only hope at the national level is to avoid motivating generally moderate voters to bestir themselves to turn out and vote against them.
– few things get people motivated like a mass shooting in an elementary school. Which we keep having more of.
As a result of which, national level Republicans have to at least appear to be “doing something”. At a state level, politicians in Texas or Wyoming can cater to the gun nuts. But nationally, that’s a losing strategy.
So actually, the author is wrong. It’s not “us” (the people who have been trying for years to get reasonable gun control laws passed) that the GOP is afraid of. It’s the folks who have ignored the issue for years. But now have had it hit home.
This effectively neuters the ghouls on the Supreme Court. No real prospect of them going a Dobbs on marriage rights now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/13/biden-s-codifying-same-sex-interracial-marriage-00073762
And looking at the last decade’s history of the issue, this is genuinely Biden’s achievement.
This effectively neuters the ghouls on the Supreme Court. No real prospect of them going a Dobbs on marriage rights now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/13/biden-s-codifying-same-sex-interracial-marriage-00073762
And looking at the last decade’s history of the issue, this is genuinely Biden’s achievement.
A tremendous achievement indeed. Let’s hope the same can be achieved for safeguarding at least e.g. the Vice President’s role in the certification of elections – I read that there may be enough GOP support for that too. Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still continue to do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues, and so much else.
Meanwhile, on another note, in today’s Guardian there is another obituary for Peter Brook, by Richard Eyre. I have raved here more than once about Brook’s amazing and legendary Dream, this is how Eyre talks about seeing Brook’s Lear when he was 19:
Iwas 19 when I saw Peter Brook’s production of King Lear in 1962 and I felt like Berlioz seeing Hamlet: “The lightning flash of that discovery revealed to me at a stroke the whole heaven of art. I saw, I understood, I felt that I was alive and that I must arise and walk.” The production was on an almost bare stage, stripped of what Brook described as the “quincaillerie” (ironmongery) of stage production that had so fascinated him as an absurdly young director of theatre and opera. The play was revealed in its elemental force, a world without moral absolutes in a permanent condition of fallibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2022/dec/14/obituaries-2022-peter-brook-remembered-by-richard-eyre
A tremendous achievement indeed. Let’s hope the same can be achieved for safeguarding at least e.g. the Vice President’s role in the certification of elections – I read that there may be enough GOP support for that too. Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still continue to do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues, and so much else.
Meanwhile, on another note, in today’s Guardian there is another obituary for Peter Brook, by Richard Eyre. I have raved here more than once about Brook’s amazing and legendary Dream, this is how Eyre talks about seeing Brook’s Lear when he was 19:
Iwas 19 when I saw Peter Brook’s production of King Lear in 1962 and I felt like Berlioz seeing Hamlet: “The lightning flash of that discovery revealed to me at a stroke the whole heaven of art. I saw, I understood, I felt that I was alive and that I must arise and walk.” The production was on an almost bare stage, stripped of what Brook described as the “quincaillerie” (ironmongery) of stage production that had so fascinated him as an absurdly young director of theatre and opera. The play was revealed in its elemental force, a world without moral absolutes in a permanent condition of fallibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2022/dec/14/obituaries-2022-peter-brook-remembered-by-richard-eyre
A tremendous achievement indeed. Let’s hope the same can be achieved for safeguarding at least e.g. the Vice President’s role in the certification of elections – I read that there may be enough GOP support for that too. Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues, and so much else.
Meanwhile, on another note, in today’s Guardian there is another obituary for Peter Brook, by Richard Eyre. I have raved here more than once about Brook’s amazing and legendary Dream, this is how Eyre talks about seeing Brook’s Lear when he was 19:
I was 19 when I saw Peter Brook’s production of King Lear in 1962 and I felt like Berlioz seeing Hamlet: “The lightning flash of that discovery revealed to me at a stroke the whole heaven of art. I saw, I understood, I felt that I was alive and that I must arise and walk.” The production was on an almost bare stage, stripped of what Brook described as the “quincaillerie” (ironmongery) of stage production that had so fascinated him as an absurdly young director of theatre and opera. The play was revealed in its elemental force, a world without moral absolutes in a permanent condition of fallibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2022/dec/14/obituaries-2022-peter-brook-remembered-by-richard-eyre
A tremendous achievement indeed. Let’s hope the same can be achieved for safeguarding at least e.g. the Vice President’s role in the certification of elections – I read that there may be enough GOP support for that too. Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues, and so much else.
Meanwhile, on another note, in today’s Guardian there is another obituary for Peter Brook, by Richard Eyre. I have raved here more than once about Brook’s amazing and legendary Dream, this is how Eyre talks about seeing Brook’s Lear when he was 19:
I was 19 when I saw Peter Brook’s production of King Lear in 1962 and I felt like Berlioz seeing Hamlet: “The lightning flash of that discovery revealed to me at a stroke the whole heaven of art. I saw, I understood, I felt that I was alive and that I must arise and walk.” The production was on an almost bare stage, stripped of what Brook described as the “quincaillerie” (ironmongery) of stage production that had so fascinated him as an absurdly young director of theatre and opera. The play was revealed in its elemental force, a world without moral absolutes in a permanent condition of fallibility.
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2022/dec/14/obituaries-2022-peter-brook-remembered-by-richard-eyre
Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues.
It’s chancy to predict what this Court will do. But consider:
– 3 of the justices are basically political hacks.
– access to contraception is far, far less of a red flag, even in conservative/reactionary circles, than abortion ever was.
– reversing the decades-old decision making access to contraception a right would set off a firestorm that would make the reaction to Dobbs look like trivial spat in a freshman dorm.
So I’d guess that, having seen what impact their abortion decision had on their party’s electoral performance, those same hacks would be extremely wary of taking that next step.
Still leaves abortion, contraception and wider voting rights though…the ghouls on the Supreme Court (excellent coinage by the way) can still do enormous amounts of consequential damage on those issues.
It’s chancy to predict what this Court will do. But consider:
– 3 of the justices are basically political hacks.
– access to contraception is far, far less of a red flag, even in conservative/reactionary circles, than abortion ever was.
– reversing the decades-old decision making access to contraception a right would set off a firestorm that would make the reaction to Dobbs look like trivial spat in a freshman dorm.
So I’d guess that, having seen what impact their abortion decision had on their party’s electoral performance, those same hacks would be extremely wary of taking that next step.
Speaking of the NRA, mass shootings would have been an interesting thing to talk about in the ‘fear of violence’ thread.
One of the most interesting things about it is how (and maybe why) “violent crime” and “mass shootings” somehow seem to get coded as almost entirely disjoint categories in many contexts.
In an extreme example, I could imagine someone arguing that some quiet Texas hamlet isn’t really the per-capita murder capital of the country, because all those elementary school kids don’t count — that was just a one-off incident!
It’s kind of a weird blind spot.
(A blind spot we all have a bit apparently, despite best intentions and everyone here mostly having our heads screwed on straight: AFAICT, nobody brought it up the other day, even though mass shootings are pretty salient to questions like, e.g., whether people’s feelings of safety are a function only of crime < 10 blocks away.) Also: even when gloomy, Maine's the second prettiest state, after Alaska. Fewer mountains, but better towns.
Speaking of the NRA, mass shootings would have been an interesting thing to talk about in the ‘fear of violence’ thread.
One of the most interesting things about it is how (and maybe why) “violent crime” and “mass shootings” somehow seem to get coded as almost entirely disjoint categories in many contexts.
In an extreme example, I could imagine someone arguing that some quiet Texas hamlet isn’t really the per-capita murder capital of the country, because all those elementary school kids don’t count — that was just a one-off incident!
It’s kind of a weird blind spot.
(A blind spot we all have a bit apparently, despite best intentions and everyone here mostly having our heads screwed on straight: AFAICT, nobody brought it up the other day, even though mass shootings are pretty salient to questions like, e.g., whether people’s feelings of safety are a function only of crime < 10 blocks away.) Also: even when gloomy, Maine's the second prettiest state, after Alaska. Fewer mountains, but better towns.
jack lecou — there’s someone on Balloon-Juice who sees my pictures when i have a thread there, and has said at least twice that Maine is the second prettiest state … after Virginia
I spent a week in Alaska in Feb. of 1985, at Fur Rendezvous time; i was pregnant, so didn’t do as much outdoor stuff as I might have. (But we did spent a fair amount of time at the festival. I was impressed with people’s habit of having a fair outdoors in February of much the sort other places have in July. Maine is somewhat similar in having *lots* of people who love to be outdoors in the winter, but I don’t think there’s anything to compare with the Fur Rendezvous. Which I don’t even know if they still have.)
Each place has its virtues….but as I’ve said in one of my BJ threads, I saw Maine only after I had hiked in a lot of places out west, and ended up loving the Olympics the most, including the coastal strip of ONP. At first Maine seemed like the toy version… Well, it sort of still does. Alaska to me is more spectacular than pretty, but that’s a quibble.
jack lecou — there’s someone on Balloon-Juice who sees my pictures when i have a thread there, and has said at least twice that Maine is the second prettiest state … after Virginia
I spent a week in Alaska in Feb. of 1985, at Fur Rendezvous time; i was pregnant, so didn’t do as much outdoor stuff as I might have. (But we did spent a fair amount of time at the festival. I was impressed with people’s habit of having a fair outdoors in February of much the sort other places have in July. Maine is somewhat similar in having *lots* of people who love to be outdoors in the winter, but I don’t think there’s anything to compare with the Fur Rendezvous. Which I don’t even know if they still have.)
Each place has its virtues….but as I’ve said in one of my BJ threads, I saw Maine only after I had hiked in a lot of places out west, and ended up loving the Olympics the most, including the coastal strip of ONP. At first Maine seemed like the toy version… Well, it sort of still does. Alaska to me is more spectacular than pretty, but that’s a quibble.
Alaska to me is more spectacular than pretty, but that’s a quibble.
It’s a useful distinction.
Having grown up with it, I guess I never felt overawed by Alaskan spectacle. Rather, when I visited Maine, it immediately felt sort of homey. Something about the combination of thick forests and rocky shorelines plied by little fishing boats. Very similar to SE Alaska as I remember it. Especially when there’s a touch of rain in the air.
Alaska to me is more spectacular than pretty, but that’s a quibble.
It’s a useful distinction.
Having grown up with it, I guess I never felt overawed by Alaskan spectacle. Rather, when I visited Maine, it immediately felt sort of homey. Something about the combination of thick forests and rocky shorelines plied by little fishing boats. Very similar to SE Alaska as I remember it. Especially when there’s a touch of rain in the air.
My take would be that much of the Alaska panhandle is pretty. With, admittedly, some spectacular parts — Glacier Bay comes to mind. But the rest of the state does tend more to the spectacular.
My take would be that much of the Alaska panhandle is pretty. With, admittedly, some spectacular parts — Glacier Bay comes to mind. But the rest of the state does tend more to the spectacular.
Yeah, my week was in Anchorage with a few day trips in the car out of the city, so I didn’t see the SE part of the state. I did, though, hike for a couple of weeks in ONP, and visit one of the San Juan islands. It is so beautiful there, and I assume it’s fairly similar to SE Alaska.
Anyhow, this is giving me wanderlust. Which I can’t indulge at the moment, but which is fun to dream of.
As to Maine being homey — yes, and it reminds me of the impression I always get when I drive across northern New England. It’s a fairly small area by the standards of any western state, but the three states (ME, NH, VT) are all different in terms of the shape of the land and the feel of the little towns you drive through. How much the land shaped the style of settlement and v.v. I don’t know.
Yeah, my week was in Anchorage with a few day trips in the car out of the city, so I didn’t see the SE part of the state. I did, though, hike for a couple of weeks in ONP, and visit one of the San Juan islands. It is so beautiful there, and I assume it’s fairly similar to SE Alaska.
Anyhow, this is giving me wanderlust. Which I can’t indulge at the moment, but which is fun to dream of.
As to Maine being homey — yes, and it reminds me of the impression I always get when I drive across northern New England. It’s a fairly small area by the standards of any western state, but the three states (ME, NH, VT) are all different in terms of the shape of the land and the feel of the little towns you drive through. How much the land shaped the style of settlement and v.v. I don’t know.
You guys had me street-viewing on Google. After meandering about, I ended up in some beautiful neighborhoods north of downtown Seattle on the bay/sound. I want to live there now, but I don’t know that I can swing $1M for a 2500 sq ft house on a fifth of an acre.
You guys had me street-viewing on Google. After meandering about, I ended up in some beautiful neighborhoods north of downtown Seattle on the bay/sound. I want to live there now, but I don’t know that I can swing $1M for a 2500 sq ft house on a fifth of an acre.
Make that $2M! I looked up a couple of houses. The $1M house was far more modest than the 2500 sq ft house.
Make that $2M! I looked up a couple of houses. The $1M house was far more modest than the 2500 sq ft house.
hsh, the only solution seems to be to invest in a time machine. So you can go back and buy when prices were better.
hsh, the only solution seems to be to invest in a time machine. So you can go back and buy when prices were better.
“Quick! To the Time Machine!”
“Quick! To the Time Machine!”
Or one of the steppers from the Long Earth books. Old-growth forests and still-crispy glaciers just a step away. Or, IIRC, there’s purportedly lots of waterfront property on a North America that still has an inland sea. Just a couple thousand universes further over to the West.
Or one of the steppers from the Long Earth books. Old-growth forests and still-crispy glaciers just a step away. Or, IIRC, there’s purportedly lots of waterfront property on a North America that still has an inland sea. Just a couple thousand universes further over to the West.
Or the farcasters in Dan Simmons’s Hyperion books, although maybe that’s cheating since it involves lots of planets instead of just this one. No more fantastic than a time machine, I suppose.
Or the farcasters in Dan Simmons’s Hyperion books, although maybe that’s cheating since it involves lots of planets instead of just this one. No more fantastic than a time machine, I suppose.
IIRC, there’s purportedly lots of waterfront property on a North America that still has an inland sea.
If waterfront property (in the state of Washington) is what you want, pop on over to the Olympic Peninsula. Reasonably close to Seattle, nice waterfront, and way cheaper. (My sister and brother-in-law retired there, being unable to afford the Bay Area in California. At least, once he retired from Lawrence Livermore.)
IIRC, there’s purportedly lots of waterfront property on a North America that still has an inland sea.
If waterfront property (in the state of Washington) is what you want, pop on over to the Olympic Peninsula. Reasonably close to Seattle, nice waterfront, and way cheaper. (My sister and brother-in-law retired there, being unable to afford the Bay Area in California. At least, once he retired from Lawrence Livermore.)
FYI, GftNC comment at 10:50 yesterday morning retrieved from Spam.
FYI, GftNC comment at 10:50 yesterday morning retrieved from Spam.
I want to live there now, but I don’t know that I can swing $1M for a 2500 sq ft house on a fifth of an acre.
Zillow tells me that my house – 1400sf 60’s ranch, bumped up to 1800sf by a semi-finished basement, 1/8 acre, no garage – is worth about $750K. We are in a “starter home” neighborhood.
I’m not sure how reliable Zillow is, but even factoring that in, that is fa-reaking nuts.
It’s all hypothetical funny money to me, because my wife and I plan to stay put until they carry us out. But I seriously do not know how young people just starting out can get any kind of toehold in home ownership.
I want to live there now, but I don’t know that I can swing $1M for a 2500 sq ft house on a fifth of an acre.
Zillow tells me that my house – 1400sf 60’s ranch, bumped up to 1800sf by a semi-finished basement, 1/8 acre, no garage – is worth about $750K. We are in a “starter home” neighborhood.
I’m not sure how reliable Zillow is, but even factoring that in, that is fa-reaking nuts.
It’s all hypothetical funny money to me, because my wife and I plan to stay put until they carry us out. But I seriously do not know how young people just starting out can get any kind of toehold in home ownership.
Long story short – rich parents or they can’t get in. Corporations are buying up all the properties.
Welcome back, feudalism.
Long story short – rich parents or they can’t get in. Corporations are buying up all the properties.
Welcome back, feudalism.
One thing I loved about the way those neighborhoods looked in Seattle was that there weren’t many lawns to speak of. The homes had what looked like little botanical gardens that weren’t overly manicured – just wild enough to seem natural, but not overgrown or out of control.
It makes me curious about the level of maintenance people have to put into their yards. Either everyone’s really good at gardening or the stuff that grows there is easy to take care of. Maybe a bit of both.
One thing I loved about the way those neighborhoods looked in Seattle was that there weren’t many lawns to speak of. The homes had what looked like little botanical gardens that weren’t overly manicured – just wild enough to seem natural, but not overgrown or out of control.
It makes me curious about the level of maintenance people have to put into their yards. Either everyone’s really good at gardening or the stuff that grows there is easy to take care of. Maybe a bit of both.
No real question, the man has class.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/12/7-great-things-about-donald-trumps-dumb-nft-announcement.html
(This just for the image. Because I refuse to link to any Trump output directly.)
It absolutely is low class. Rock bottom low class. But still, class.
No real question, the man has class.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/12/7-great-things-about-donald-trumps-dumb-nft-announcement.html
(This just for the image. Because I refuse to link to any Trump output directly.)
It absolutely is low class. Rock bottom low class. But still, class.
hsh: from yesterday’s NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/climate/native-plants-lawns-homeowners.html
Headlined: They Fought the Lawn and the Lawn Lost about a couple in Maryland who, informed by their homeowner association to get rid of their wildlife-attracting native plants and get a lawn, went to court and got the law (at least in Maryland) changed.
hsh: from yesterday’s NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/climate/native-plants-lawns-homeowners.html
Headlined: They Fought the Lawn and the Lawn Lost about a couple in Maryland who, informed by their homeowner association to get rid of their wildlife-attracting native plants and get a lawn, went to court and got the law (at least in Maryland) changed.
Trump’s NFT ‘cards’ isn’t the lowest of low-class.
He could be selling loosies in Mar-a-Dumbo.
Maybe he is!
Trump’s NFT ‘cards’ isn’t the lowest of low-class.
He could be selling loosies in Mar-a-Dumbo.
Maybe he is!
HOA’s are the worst for having little tin dictators lording it over their domains.
HOA’s are the worst for having little tin dictators lording it over their domains.
Couldn’t get behind paywall for wj’s link on Trump NFTs, but managed to see the video on Rolling Stone. One of the funniest things I’ve seen in months. It’s hard to see how even the most rabid MAGAts won’t start wondering about their hero, leaving the coast dangerously clear for De Santis.
Couldn’t get behind paywall for wj’s link on Trump NFTs, but managed to see the video on Rolling Stone. One of the funniest things I’ve seen in months. It’s hard to see how even the most rabid MAGAts won’t start wondering about their hero, leaving the coast dangerously clear for De Santis.
And to think, he got that figure with his diet. Maybe nutrition is the next science to get tossed in the trash heap of history. (And kill off a few idiots in the process.)
And to think, he got that figure with his diet. Maybe nutrition is the next science to get tossed in the trash heap of history. (And kill off a few idiots in the process.)
If anyone has watched The Boys, the Homelander similarities in attitude were there before. Now the imagery adds to it. Old Homelander…
If anyone has watched The Boys, the Homelander similarities in attitude were there before. Now the imagery adds to it. Old Homelander…
Hsh,
I live in an HOA on an island in the south Puget Sound. Houses here are around three hundred thousand for a lot that doesn’t have a view. That includes access to three miles of beach and a marina. The downside is a commute of a minimum of one hour to a job, more likely an hour and a half. We bought a condo which went up in value enough to give us a big down payment on our house. Our house has gone up about 75,000 in six years. So still affordable for retirees and young families with white collar wage earner adults. FWIW. https://www.movoto.com/shelton-wa/614-e-pointes-dr-w-shelton-wa-98584-501_33755/
Hsh,
I live in an HOA on an island in the south Puget Sound. Houses here are around three hundred thousand for a lot that doesn’t have a view. That includes access to three miles of beach and a marina. The downside is a commute of a minimum of one hour to a job, more likely an hour and a half. We bought a condo which went up in value enough to give us a big down payment on our house. Our house has gone up about 75,000 in six years. So still affordable for retirees and young families with white collar wage earner adults. FWIW. https://www.movoto.com/shelton-wa/614-e-pointes-dr-w-shelton-wa-98584-501_33755/
But I seriously do not know how young people just starting out can get any kind of toehold in home ownership.
It can be pretty tough. Especially with the “just starting out” qualifier.
I’m sure that the scenario of returning from a honeymoon in one’s 20s and moving into an affordable ‘starter house’ was never really as accessible to everyone as pushers of an idyllic “American Dream” might have tried to portray (it would have heavily depended on one’s complexion, among other things). But it was at least something that some people managed once upon a time.
Now, that sort of thing is firmly in the “things people used to do in the olden times” folder, somewhere next to “taking a trip down to the hat shop in a horse drawn trolley,” “paying for college with a summer job” and “doctors who make house calls”.
I’m certainly not going to say getting a house is impossible for people younger than, say, 40. Particularly for white collar professionals in dual income situations. But exactly how possible heavily depends on the region, assistance from parents, etc.
Even workaround options like getting a “fixer-upper” are complicated by phenomena like deep-pocketed professional house flippers bringing cash offers.
The stats don’t lie here: IIRC, home ownership rates have been falling pretty steadily since the ’80s. For all age groups under 65.
Unfortunately, the only “options” reliably available to young people just starting out nowadays are 1) further enriching the rentier class, or 2) learning to love the “simple pleasures” of “van life”.
But I seriously do not know how young people just starting out can get any kind of toehold in home ownership.
It can be pretty tough. Especially with the “just starting out” qualifier.
I’m sure that the scenario of returning from a honeymoon in one’s 20s and moving into an affordable ‘starter house’ was never really as accessible to everyone as pushers of an idyllic “American Dream” might have tried to portray (it would have heavily depended on one’s complexion, among other things). But it was at least something that some people managed once upon a time.
Now, that sort of thing is firmly in the “things people used to do in the olden times” folder, somewhere next to “taking a trip down to the hat shop in a horse drawn trolley,” “paying for college with a summer job” and “doctors who make house calls”.
I’m certainly not going to say getting a house is impossible for people younger than, say, 40. Particularly for white collar professionals in dual income situations. But exactly how possible heavily depends on the region, assistance from parents, etc.
Even workaround options like getting a “fixer-upper” are complicated by phenomena like deep-pocketed professional house flippers bringing cash offers.
The stats don’t lie here: IIRC, home ownership rates have been falling pretty steadily since the ’80s. For all age groups under 65.
Unfortunately, the only “options” reliably available to young people just starting out nowadays are 1) further enriching the rentier class, or 2) learning to love the “simple pleasures” of “van life”.
Trump’s NFT ‘cards’
Putting aside for a brief moment how profoundly toxic an influence Trump has been on all of our daily lives….
The NFT cards are the funniest thing I’ve seen in a long, long time.
My profound hope is that this will whittle his support down to the hard core true believers.
Who else will want to be associated with this clown show?
Trump’s NFT ‘cards’
Putting aside for a brief moment how profoundly toxic an influence Trump has been on all of our daily lives….
The NFT cards are the funniest thing I’ve seen in a long, long time.
My profound hope is that this will whittle his support down to the hard core true believers.
Who else will want to be associated with this clown show?
My profound hope is that this will whittle his support down to the hard core true believers.
Who else will want to be associated with this clown show?
Catch-22. If, as seems likely, some decide it was a “false flag” operation (and thus nothing to do with their
herodemi-god), well then they won’t be buying these cards. Which means less income for TFG.My profound hope is that this will whittle his support down to the hard core true believers.
Who else will want to be associated with this clown show?
Catch-22. If, as seems likely, some decide it was a “false flag” operation (and thus nothing to do with their
herodemi-god), well then they won’t be buying these cards. Which means less income for TFG.Update: apparently the first run of Trump trading cards sold out in a day.
That’s about $4.5 million in his personal pocket.
SMH
Update: apparently the first run of Trump trading cards sold out in a day.
That’s about $4.5 million in his personal pocket.
SMH
Math question: how many days does that number of minutes** represent? Caveat — some fool might have bought several, under the delusion that they were a good investment.
** “one born every minute”.
Math question: how many days does that number of minutes** represent? Caveat — some fool might have bought several, under the delusion that they were a good investment.
** “one born every minute”.
Would not be at all surprised if the whole thing turned out to be some sort of weird money laundering scheme or covert way of quietly funneling donor money to his legal bills.
Otherwise the mind boggles.
Would not be at all surprised if the whole thing turned out to be some sort of weird money laundering scheme or covert way of quietly funneling donor money to his legal bills.
Otherwise the mind boggles.
The mind doth truly boggle. Isn’t “money laundering scheme or covert way of funneling ______ money to _____” the very definition of an NFT?
Give me tulips any day.
The mind doth truly boggle. Isn’t “money laundering scheme or covert way of funneling ______ money to _____” the very definition of an NFT?
Give me tulips any day.
Buy low, sell high. On BJ I see the price has doubled. Probably it’s too late. I’m more of a “buy and hold” guy, think I’ll sit this one out.
Buy low, sell high. On BJ I see the price has doubled. Probably it’s too late. I’m more of a “buy and hold” guy, think I’ll sit this one out.
They could very well have “bought” most of them themselves just to create the impression of major interest – kind of like what T. Rump did with the Art of the Deal back in the day:
https://bookriot.com/buying-books-onto-the-bestseller-list/
It would fit their MO.
They could very well have “bought” most of them themselves just to create the impression of major interest – kind of like what T. Rump did with the Art of the Deal back in the day:
https://bookriot.com/buying-books-onto-the-bestseller-list/
It would fit their MO.
I’ll be damned if I can make any sense at all out of the whole Trump phenomenon. It’s like people want to be screwed over.
SMH
I’ll be damned if I can make any sense at all out of the whole Trump phenomenon. It’s like people want to be screwed over.
SMH
I really don’t understand why a person would want anything digital. Isn’t the fun of collecting associated with handling the collected object? Or am I just hopelessly retro? I don’t understand digital photo albums either.
I really don’t understand why a person would want anything digital. Isn’t the fun of collecting associated with handling the collected object? Or am I just hopelessly retro? I don’t understand digital photo albums either.
It occurred to me that I don’t have that attitude toward books. I prefer reading on my kindle. However, I MUCH prefer illustrated books and magazines to be “real.” I want to have an atlas or map in my hand too.
It occurred to me that I don’t have that attitude toward books. I prefer reading on my kindle. However, I MUCH prefer illustrated books and magazines to be “real.” I want to have an atlas or map in my hand too.
I’ll be damned if I can make any sense at all out of the whole Trump phenomenon. It’s like people want to be screwed over.
Perhaps your difficulty is that they want to see themselves as victims, and you do not. Trump is merely satisfying their want, by making them victims. And they are cooperating with him in satisfying their want.
I’ll be damned if I can make any sense at all out of the whole Trump phenomenon. It’s like people want to be screwed over.
Perhaps your difficulty is that they want to see themselves as victims, and you do not. Trump is merely satisfying their want, by making them victims. And they are cooperating with him in satisfying their want.
Re: Clickbait’s NFTs. Delicious twist to make russell’s head spin even faster.
H/T to Anne Laurie at BJ.
*****
wonkie — I don’t get the NFT phenomenon at all, and haven’t tried. But I’m the opposite of you with digital stuff — I don’t read on a Kindle (or any equivalent), only real old-fashioned books.
But once I took up photography seriously, and ended up with so many pictures to process, work on, and keep track of, I set myself up with a good quality, 27-inch monitor hitched to an old computer, and I run a slideshow all day long of all my polished pics (taken by me, edited by my friend Steve).
The slideshow faces the doorway where people come into my apartment, and it has become a centerpiece of the room where I spend all my time. People come in and comment on the pics, ask where they were taken, etc. My 13-month old granddaughter lies around in her playpen and gazes at the pictures when she’s bored with her toys. (Lord knows what she makes of the pics — mostly landscapes — but she seems quite mesmerized by them sometimes.)
If I had the pics printed, it would be a whole different process to be able to look at even a fraction of them with any attention on any given day. The technology creates a whole different dynamic from the way life used to be.
Re: Clickbait’s NFTs. Delicious twist to make russell’s head spin even faster.
H/T to Anne Laurie at BJ.
*****
wonkie — I don’t get the NFT phenomenon at all, and haven’t tried. But I’m the opposite of you with digital stuff — I don’t read on a Kindle (or any equivalent), only real old-fashioned books.
But once I took up photography seriously, and ended up with so many pictures to process, work on, and keep track of, I set myself up with a good quality, 27-inch monitor hitched to an old computer, and I run a slideshow all day long of all my polished pics (taken by me, edited by my friend Steve).
The slideshow faces the doorway where people come into my apartment, and it has become a centerpiece of the room where I spend all my time. People come in and comment on the pics, ask where they were taken, etc. My 13-month old granddaughter lies around in her playpen and gazes at the pictures when she’s bored with her toys. (Lord knows what she makes of the pics — mostly landscapes — but she seems quite mesmerized by them sometimes.)
If I had the pics printed, it would be a whole different process to be able to look at even a fraction of them with any attention on any given day. The technology creates a whole different dynamic from the way life used to be.
That is indeed a delicious twist, Janie. And there I was thinking nothing could make the ad and the cards themselves any funnier!
That is indeed a delicious twist, Janie. And there I was thinking nothing could make the ad and the cards themselves any funnier!
It’s safe to assume anything SFB does is a scam, including NFts which are a scam anyway.
Speculation is, the buyers are the usual gang of international despots and oligarchs who keep shoveling $$ his way, as a laundered payment for the classified documents he either let them copy or gave them outright.
It’s safe to assume anything SFB does is a scam, including NFts which are a scam anyway.
Speculation is, the buyers are the usual gang of international despots and oligarchs who keep shoveling $$ his way, as a laundered payment for the classified documents he either let them copy or gave them outright.
Oh, and by the way, I am beginning to wonder if Elon Musk has an actual mental health problem, quite apart from having Asperger’s, and being an arrogant and entitled arsehole. YMMV, except on the description after that last comma, which I am betting will find general agreement.
Oh, and by the way, I am beginning to wonder if Elon Musk has an actual mental health problem, quite apart from having Asperger’s, and being an arrogant and entitled arsehole. YMMV, except on the description after that last comma, which I am betting will find general agreement.
when you’re a flaming asshole, money is just like gasoline.
when you’re a flaming asshole, money is just like gasoline.
A truer word was never spoken
A truer word was never spoken
Re: Clickbait’s NFTs. Delicious twist to make russell’s head spin even faster.
Mine is spinning in several dimensions after reading that. What a cesspool.
Re: Clickbait’s NFTs. Delicious twist to make russell’s head spin even faster.
Mine is spinning in several dimensions after reading that. What a cesspool.
Trump is a crook. Crooks gotta crook, it’s what they do. Oftentimes, a crook will crook even if playing it straight would be easier and/or have a better upside for them.
They’re just living out who they are.
Nothing Trump does surprises me. What surprises me are the millions and millions of people who would take a freaking bullet for the guy.
For the life of me, I do not understand it, and likely never will.
Not sure what it would take for some folks to wise up.
Trump is a crook. Crooks gotta crook, it’s what they do. Oftentimes, a crook will crook even if playing it straight would be easier and/or have a better upside for them.
They’re just living out who they are.
Nothing Trump does surprises me. What surprises me are the millions and millions of people who would take a freaking bullet for the guy.
For the life of me, I do not understand it, and likely never will.
Not sure what it would take for some folks to wise up.
Not sure what it would take for some folks to wise up.
Much as crooks gotta crook, because it’s what they do, marks gotta get conned, because it’s what they do. There simply isn’t any way to wise them up.
Not sure what it would take for some folks to wise up.
Much as crooks gotta crook, because it’s what they do, marks gotta get conned, because it’s what they do. There simply isn’t any way to wise them up.
Well, I’ve just watched the final hearing of the Congressional Committee. They’ve done a fine job, and it’s awfully hard to see how anybody can doubt their conclusions and recommendations for referral. But, of course, everything we’ve seen all along shows that diehards, in their millions, will doubt them. It will be very interesting, although inevitably depressing, to see the reaction from people like the GOP leadership.
Well, I’ve just watched the final hearing of the Congressional Committee. They’ve done a fine job, and it’s awfully hard to see how anybody can doubt their conclusions and recommendations for referral. But, of course, everything we’ve seen all along shows that diehards, in their millions, will doubt them. It will be very interesting, although inevitably depressing, to see the reaction from people like the GOP leadership.
Last week, if the Department of Justice had brought a charge of insurrection against Trump, they would have been faced with explaining why they had gone so far as to do that. Given the Jan 6 Committee’s referral, they are now faced with having to explain why if they do not. Especially in the face of the mountain of evidence the Committee has published.
Basically, the terms of the debate have changed.
Last week, if the Department of Justice had brought a charge of insurrection against Trump, they would have been faced with explaining why they had gone so far as to do that. Given the Jan 6 Committee’s referral, they are now faced with having to explain why if they do not. Especially in the face of the mountain of evidence the Committee has published.
Basically, the terms of the debate have changed.
Mike Pence really is a spineless worm (or at least, he exhibited the only part of vestigial spine he possessed on January 6th, and the effort wore him out for ever).
But Pence told Fox News on Monday that he hopes the Justice Department doesn’t indict his former boss for his role inciting the Capitol Hill riot because of what he claims is a “partisan taint.”
“Congress has no formal role in Justice Department decisions, so they can make recommendations today,” Pence said. “But when it comes to the Justice Department’s decision about bringing charges in the future, I would hope that they would not bring charges against the former president.”
Pence then suggested that Trump’s only “crime” was picking bad attorneys.
“The president’s actions and words on Jan. 6 were reckless, but I don’t know that it’s criminal to take bad advice from lawyers,” Pence said.
Pence then tried to suggest the DOJ shouldn’t be Grinches by following the pesky rule of law when it is, after all, Christmas, before deciding to indict Trump.
“I think that would be terribly divisive in the country at a time when the American people want to see us heal,” Pence said. “At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
And don’t tell me he’s just exhibiting electoral calculation – I know all that. He is a worm, as are they (almost) all.
Mike Pence really is a spineless worm (or at least, he exhibited the only part of vestigial spine he possessed on January 6th, and the effort wore him out for ever).
But Pence told Fox News on Monday that he hopes the Justice Department doesn’t indict his former boss for his role inciting the Capitol Hill riot because of what he claims is a “partisan taint.”
“Congress has no formal role in Justice Department decisions, so they can make recommendations today,” Pence said. “But when it comes to the Justice Department’s decision about bringing charges in the future, I would hope that they would not bring charges against the former president.”
Pence then suggested that Trump’s only “crime” was picking bad attorneys.
“The president’s actions and words on Jan. 6 were reckless, but I don’t know that it’s criminal to take bad advice from lawyers,” Pence said.
Pence then tried to suggest the DOJ shouldn’t be Grinches by following the pesky rule of law when it is, after all, Christmas, before deciding to indict Trump.
“I think that would be terribly divisive in the country at a time when the American people want to see us heal,” Pence said. “At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
And don’t tell me he’s just exhibiting electoral calculation – I know all that. He is a worm, as are they (almost) all.
I certainly hope something comes out of the referrals. And the various other cases against Trump. It would be about time.
But I think that’s one of the most under-reported aspects of this whole thing: if and when some charges finally stick, well, great, but it’s going to be at least a good 30 or 40 years too late.
Because of course Trump is a crook. But he has been the whole time.
If somebody had stepped up and prosecuted him and/or his company back in the 1980s, or even just exercised a modicum of oversight on his financial filings at some point, the last 6 years would have looked very different.
And of course, it’s not just Trump. There are a lot of crooks happily a-crooking out there.
I recognize that “white-collar” crime is often less straightforward to discover or prosecute than, say, a liquor store holdup. But it’s also exponentially more damaging. Both financially, and to the fabric of social trust. Maybe we should start allocating law enforcement resources accordingly.
(And let’s be honest: a lot of this isn’t that hard to uncover — e.g., a lot of Trump’s shenanigans over the decades were essentially open secrets. It was simply more convenient for the various powers to be to go along with the wrongdoing.)
I certainly hope something comes out of the referrals. And the various other cases against Trump. It would be about time.
But I think that’s one of the most under-reported aspects of this whole thing: if and when some charges finally stick, well, great, but it’s going to be at least a good 30 or 40 years too late.
Because of course Trump is a crook. But he has been the whole time.
If somebody had stepped up and prosecuted him and/or his company back in the 1980s, or even just exercised a modicum of oversight on his financial filings at some point, the last 6 years would have looked very different.
And of course, it’s not just Trump. There are a lot of crooks happily a-crooking out there.
I recognize that “white-collar” crime is often less straightforward to discover or prosecute than, say, a liquor store holdup. But it’s also exponentially more damaging. Both financially, and to the fabric of social trust. Maybe we should start allocating law enforcement resources accordingly.
(And let’s be honest: a lot of this isn’t that hard to uncover — e.g., a lot of Trump’s shenanigans over the decades were essentially open secrets. It was simply more convenient for the various powers to be to go along with the wrongdoing.)
“The president’s actions and words on Jan. 6 were reckless, but I don’t know that it’s criminal to take bad advice from lawyers,” Pence said.
The “party of personal responsibility” says what?
“The president’s actions and words on Jan. 6 were reckless, but I don’t know that it’s criminal to take bad advice from lawyers,” Pence said.
The “party of personal responsibility” says what?
I read somewhere long ago that Steve Bannon recruited Trump to run for office but didn’t want him to win because he knew winning would expose Trump to scrutiny that would result in convictions. This implies that it was common knowledge at least in some circles that Trump was a crook of long standing.
I do think that many people including Bannon and TRump were surprised that he won.
I read somewhere long ago that Steve Bannon recruited Trump to run for office but didn’t want him to win because he knew winning would expose Trump to scrutiny that would result in convictions. This implies that it was common knowledge at least in some circles that Trump was a crook of long standing.
I do think that many people including Bannon and TRump were surprised that he won.
I do think that many people including Bannon and TRump were surprised that he won.
My sense is that Trump entered to 2016 primaries 1) for the attention he craves, and 2) because he figured (correctly) he could rake in a bunch of money from campaign donors. Which he could then redirect into his own pockets — that kind of scam being old hat for him.
When he actually got the nomination, that just meant he could run the con a while longer, and make more off it. I suspect that even he, seasoned conman that he is, never dreamed there might be enough suckers out there for him to actually get elected.
Once he did win, he had no clue what to do. Except keep running as many scams as possible. Which is what he did. The actual work of the job got delegated (implicitly, because he was too clueless to know what the pieces were explicitly) to whatever flunky was handy and willing to take it. Be they the Senate Majority Leader, the Federalist Society, a cabinet member, or just a random hanger-on.
I do think that many people including Bannon and TRump were surprised that he won.
My sense is that Trump entered to 2016 primaries 1) for the attention he craves, and 2) because he figured (correctly) he could rake in a bunch of money from campaign donors. Which he could then redirect into his own pockets — that kind of scam being old hat for him.
When he actually got the nomination, that just meant he could run the con a while longer, and make more off it. I suspect that even he, seasoned conman that he is, never dreamed there might be enough suckers out there for him to actually get elected.
Once he did win, he had no clue what to do. Except keep running as many scams as possible. Which is what he did. The actual work of the job got delegated (implicitly, because he was too clueless to know what the pieces were explicitly) to whatever flunky was handy and willing to take it. Be they the Senate Majority Leader, the Federalist Society, a cabinet member, or just a random hanger-on.
I think that would be terribly divisive in the country at a time when the American people want to see us heal
There is no healing without candor and accountability.
“Let’s just put this behind us and move on” is not healing. It’s denial.
I think that would be terribly divisive in the country at a time when the American people want to see us heal
There is no healing without candor and accountability.
“Let’s just put this behind us and move on” is not healing. It’s denial.
Healing requires eradicating the infection.
Painful, yes, but now that pandemic shortages have eased, there should be enough Lysol to dunk the MAGAts head-first.
According the TFG, it’ll clear up their COVID very quickly, also, too.
Healing requires eradicating the infection.
Painful, yes, but now that pandemic shortages have eased, there should be enough Lysol to dunk the MAGAts head-first.
According the TFG, it’ll clear up their COVID very quickly, also, too.
“At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
Oh, FFS!!! (That’s all I got….)
“At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
Oh, FFS!!! (That’s all I got….)
“At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
Do you suppose he’s heartened by the fact that the Justice Department seems to have done that very thing? 🙂
“At this time of year, we’re all thinking about the most important things in our lives: our faith, our family. And my hope is, the Justice Department think very carefully before proceeding.”
Do you suppose he’s heartened by the fact that the Justice Department seems to have done that very thing? 🙂
His family can think about how those a**holes wanted to hang him. Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year? I’m guessing not.
His family can think about how those a**holes wanted to hang him. Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year? I’m guessing not.
His family can think about how those a**holes wanted to hang him. Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year?
Beautifully put, hsh. Really, what else needs to be said? The lack of moral fibre, and mealy-mouthedness, really beggar description.
Mike Pence: for shame (as if you even know what the word means), you creeping, arse-licking toady to anything and anybody who can further your ambition.
His family can think about how those a**holes wanted to hang him. Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year?
Beautifully put, hsh. Really, what else needs to be said? The lack of moral fibre, and mealy-mouthedness, really beggar description.
Mike Pence: for shame (as if you even know what the word means), you creeping, arse-licking toady to anything and anybody who can further your ambition.
“Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year?”
There are vampires in that family.
It is known.
So Pence didn’t need to worry about getting hanged. (Esp. not with that ‘obviously rope wrapped around a soda can fake noose’) But rather, he needs to worry about getting a cooked-until-rock-hard Trump Stake stuck in his chest.
“Would that have made for a nice Christmas in the Pence home this year?”
There are vampires in that family.
It is known.
So Pence didn’t need to worry about getting hanged. (Esp. not with that ‘obviously rope wrapped around a soda can fake noose’) But rather, he needs to worry about getting a cooked-until-rock-hard Trump Stake stuck in his chest.
wj, I think you summed his administration up very aptly. The shocking thing to me is how his administration showed the depth of moral corruption in the Republican party because, with the exception of some genuinely stupid people, they all knew he was running a con and they covered for him over and over and over. There was no low too low to go for most elected Republicans and Faux and R voters. NO more principle, no ethical standard, nothing was important enough to defend.
Now most elected Republicans and strategists would like us to just forget about Trump, just pretend that he didn’t happen. Or pretend that his era is over. But it isn’t. Except for a very few who stood up for the rule of law, they shared his corruption, and they will continue to be just as corrupt in support of whatever thug their crazy base voters pick next election.
I don’t know how the Republican party can recover from moral degeneracy this extensive.
wj, I think you summed his administration up very aptly. The shocking thing to me is how his administration showed the depth of moral corruption in the Republican party because, with the exception of some genuinely stupid people, they all knew he was running a con and they covered for him over and over and over. There was no low too low to go for most elected Republicans and Faux and R voters. NO more principle, no ethical standard, nothing was important enough to defend.
Now most elected Republicans and strategists would like us to just forget about Trump, just pretend that he didn’t happen. Or pretend that his era is over. But it isn’t. Except for a very few who stood up for the rule of law, they shared his corruption, and they will continue to be just as corrupt in support of whatever thug their crazy base voters pick next election.
I don’t know how the Republican party can recover from moral degeneracy this extensive.
Except for a very few who stood up for the rule of law, they shared his corruption, and they will continue to be just as corrupt in support of whatever thug their crazy base voters pick next election.
And, sadly, most of those exceptions were primaried out, forced into retirement because they knew they would lose a primary, threatened (not just personally but their families as well), or otherwise attacked by the MAGAts. I want to believe, I really really want to believe, that there is some path back from this utter degeneracy. But optimist though I routinely am, I’m having trouble seeing what it might be.
I do read suggestions that what forces a party to step back from such radicalism and insanity is simply that they get tired of losing elections over and over and over again. The counter to that thesis is, most obviously from my perspective, the California Republican Party — which is now entering its 4th decade of losing due to having embraced xenophobia and reaction. And, despite losing massively and routinely, still shows no sign of changing course.
I think the experience here with a one-party state government makes clear that the country needs two sane and viable parties. If we had one here, we might have been spared an empty suit like Newsome. But so far, no sign that we will get one. Apparently the truism that the market will provide whatever there is a demand for doesn’t apply to politics.
Except for a very few who stood up for the rule of law, they shared his corruption, and they will continue to be just as corrupt in support of whatever thug their crazy base voters pick next election.
And, sadly, most of those exceptions were primaried out, forced into retirement because they knew they would lose a primary, threatened (not just personally but their families as well), or otherwise attacked by the MAGAts. I want to believe, I really really want to believe, that there is some path back from this utter degeneracy. But optimist though I routinely am, I’m having trouble seeing what it might be.
I do read suggestions that what forces a party to step back from such radicalism and insanity is simply that they get tired of losing elections over and over and over again. The counter to that thesis is, most obviously from my perspective, the California Republican Party — which is now entering its 4th decade of losing due to having embraced xenophobia and reaction. And, despite losing massively and routinely, still shows no sign of changing course.
I think the experience here with a one-party state government makes clear that the country needs two sane and viable parties. If we had one here, we might have been spared an empty suit like Newsome. But so far, no sign that we will get one. Apparently the truism that the market will provide whatever there is a demand for doesn’t apply to politics.
The counter to that thesis is, most obviously from my perspective, the California Republican Party — which is now entering its 4th decade of losing due to having embraced xenophobia and reaction.
I don’t think there is a California Republican Party. I think the growth of dark money and social media makes it so that there is effectively a national Republican Party donor network and a national Republican Party base. This results in there being a group of California republicans who are functionally indistinguishable from independents in that they get no say in state politics beyond choosing to vote for or against the chosen Republican candidate.
Both the money and the base have written off the state as a permanent loss and live vicariously through the party’s wins in red states and national politics. They are entirely given over to negative partisanship.
The counter to that thesis is, most obviously from my perspective, the California Republican Party — which is now entering its 4th decade of losing due to having embraced xenophobia and reaction.
I don’t think there is a California Republican Party. I think the growth of dark money and social media makes it so that there is effectively a national Republican Party donor network and a national Republican Party base. This results in there being a group of California republicans who are functionally indistinguishable from independents in that they get no say in state politics beyond choosing to vote for or against the chosen Republican candidate.
Both the money and the base have written off the state as a permanent loss and live vicariously through the party’s wins in red states and national politics. They are entirely given over to negative partisanship.
I don’t think there is a California Republican Party. I think the growth of dark money and social media makes it so that there is effectively a national Republican Party donor network and a national Republican Party base.
The flaw in this thesis is that the behavior of Republican voters and Republican politicians here has not changed materially (that I can see) since the mid-1990s. That is, a time when they were not that far from the days when California was routinely a Republican-run state. So they had first-hand memories of the fact that a conservative, but not reactionary, Republican like Reagan could run and win here.
But perhaps you were trying to imply that there are no state-level parties anywhere in the country any more. Was that it?
I don’t think there is a California Republican Party. I think the growth of dark money and social media makes it so that there is effectively a national Republican Party donor network and a national Republican Party base.
The flaw in this thesis is that the behavior of Republican voters and Republican politicians here has not changed materially (that I can see) since the mid-1990s. That is, a time when they were not that far from the days when California was routinely a Republican-run state. So they had first-hand memories of the fact that a conservative, but not reactionary, Republican like Reagan could run and win here.
But perhaps you were trying to imply that there are no state-level parties anywhere in the country any more. Was that it?
I was referring to what political scientists have pointed out about the nationalization of party politics in the US and noting how that drift of the party (money and broadcast media at the top, social media at the volunteer bottom) captured the party apparatus.
Thirty years of negative partisanship has done the rest of the work of making moderate policy unthinkable to any of the people active in the state party.
It’s not really my thesis, it’s my ethnographic observations of what the political scientists have been noting for a while.
The party politics on social media here have been dominated by abortion, immigration, law enforcement, and the second amendment. Those are all driven and funded by national organizations.
I was referring to what political scientists have pointed out about the nationalization of party politics in the US and noting how that drift of the party (money and broadcast media at the top, social media at the volunteer bottom) captured the party apparatus.
Thirty years of negative partisanship has done the rest of the work of making moderate policy unthinkable to any of the people active in the state party.
It’s not really my thesis, it’s my ethnographic observations of what the political scientists have been noting for a while.
The party politics on social media here have been dominated by abortion, immigration, law enforcement, and the second amendment. Those are all driven and funded by national organizations.
I keep seeing Gavin Newsom described as an “empty suit” – not just here, but elsewhere.
And for the life of me, I can’t figure out why.
He has, near as I can tell, an impressive number of legislative victories on non-trivially important bills.
He’s not afraid to rhetorically jab the GOP in the nuts, locally, regionally, and nationally.
He’s just gotten a GOP judge to do exactly what he wanted: throw out the anti-gun law that was modeled exactly after the Texas anti-choice law, so that now the law can be appealed onward and upward to SCOTUS.
In what way is Newsom an empty suit?
I keep seeing Gavin Newsom described as an “empty suit” – not just here, but elsewhere.
And for the life of me, I can’t figure out why.
He has, near as I can tell, an impressive number of legislative victories on non-trivially important bills.
He’s not afraid to rhetorically jab the GOP in the nuts, locally, regionally, and nationally.
He’s just gotten a GOP judge to do exactly what he wanted: throw out the anti-gun law that was modeled exactly after the Texas anti-choice law, so that now the law can be appealed onward and upward to SCOTUS.
In what way is Newsom an empty suit?
He has, near as I can tell, an impressive number of legislative victories on non-trivially important bills.
Did he sign those bills? Sure. Did he support them? Yes. Did his support make a significant difference in getting them passed? Not really. Did he originate the ideas behind those bills? No. In short, he’s not noticably a leader.
The gun law might be seen as an exception. Except that taking the Texas abortion law as a model for a gun control law was so obvious that even *I* thought of it. As for “getting a GOP judge to throw out the law”, once the law was passed, it was inevitable that someone (not Newsom; not recruited by Newsom) would sue to overturn it. And find a Federal judge to overturn it. Credit the NRA, if you will, for helping the plaintiff find a judge to do that. No credit to Newsom for that happening that I can see.
For an example of a Governor actually leading on something, see Oregon’s Kate Brown commuting the sentences of everyone on death row in her state (all 17 of them). Newsome has managed only a moratorium, back in 2019. He said at the time that he might commute those death sentences. But last I heard, California had around 700 individuals on death row — the most of any state. He could commute those sentences, but….
In short, Newsom occasionally talks a good game. If someone else makes it seem politically desirable. But actually doing something is rare. (Unless it’s attending a fundraiser while urging everybody else to avoid large groups due to covid. /snark)
He has, near as I can tell, an impressive number of legislative victories on non-trivially important bills.
Did he sign those bills? Sure. Did he support them? Yes. Did his support make a significant difference in getting them passed? Not really. Did he originate the ideas behind those bills? No. In short, he’s not noticably a leader.
The gun law might be seen as an exception. Except that taking the Texas abortion law as a model for a gun control law was so obvious that even *I* thought of it. As for “getting a GOP judge to throw out the law”, once the law was passed, it was inevitable that someone (not Newsom; not recruited by Newsom) would sue to overturn it. And find a Federal judge to overturn it. Credit the NRA, if you will, for helping the plaintiff find a judge to do that. No credit to Newsom for that happening that I can see.
For an example of a Governor actually leading on something, see Oregon’s Kate Brown commuting the sentences of everyone on death row in her state (all 17 of them). Newsome has managed only a moratorium, back in 2019. He said at the time that he might commute those death sentences. But last I heard, California had around 700 individuals on death row — the most of any state. He could commute those sentences, but….
In short, Newsom occasionally talks a good game. If someone else makes it seem politically desirable. But actually doing something is rare. (Unless it’s attending a fundraiser while urging everybody else to avoid large groups due to covid. /snark)
Here’s a fairly thorough assessment of Newsom’s record from Cal Matters.
https://calmatters.org/explainers/newsom-recall-report-card/
I feel about Newsom the way I feel about Feinstein. They are corporatist Democrats who are generally on the right side of social issues, but side with property interests and wealth too often. I was especially disappointed, for example, that Newsom bowed to developers and vetoed legislation that would have limited development in areas at high risk of wildfires.
So there is a lot of symbolic action and some genuine good, but a squeamishness to give any real teeth to policies that deal with inequality and the environment.
And he’s a douche with a suit and a good haircut – entirely too easy to paint as an out-of-touch elitist. Probably because he is one. I’d say that Harris, even with her flaws, is a better choice than Newsom, as would either Brown or Inslee.
Here’s a fairly thorough assessment of Newsom’s record from Cal Matters.
https://calmatters.org/explainers/newsom-recall-report-card/
I feel about Newsom the way I feel about Feinstein. They are corporatist Democrats who are generally on the right side of social issues, but side with property interests and wealth too often. I was especially disappointed, for example, that Newsom bowed to developers and vetoed legislation that would have limited development in areas at high risk of wildfires.
So there is a lot of symbolic action and some genuine good, but a squeamishness to give any real teeth to policies that deal with inequality and the environment.
And he’s a douche with a suit and a good haircut – entirely too easy to paint as an out-of-touch elitist. Probably because he is one. I’d say that Harris, even with her flaws, is a better choice than Newsom, as would either Brown or Inslee.
While we’re mentioning where people stand on various political scales, here’s a paragraph about The Guardian that tickled me from Tony Jay, one of BJ’s UK commenters, who posts long and often hilarious summaries of British politics from time to time:
And like so much punditry, it all sounds so plausible. I guess that’s sort of the definition of punditry, right?
While we’re mentioning where people stand on various political scales, here’s a paragraph about The Guardian that tickled me from Tony Jay, one of BJ’s UK commenters, who posts long and often hilarious summaries of British politics from time to time:
And like so much punditry, it all sounds so plausible. I guess that’s sort of the definition of punditry, right?
Was it Publius who used to post derisively about David Broder’s great scale that always had to return to balance by equating the sins and virtues of the political right and left? That’s what it reminds me of (at least partially, since I’m not entirely sure what it is I’m remembering).
Was it Publius who used to post derisively about David Broder’s great scale that always had to return to balance by equating the sins and virtues of the political right and left? That’s what it reminds me of (at least partially, since I’m not entirely sure what it is I’m remembering).