Progress In Iraq (Not!)

by hilzoy

From the NYT:

“An independent commission established by Congress to assess Iraq’s security forces will recommend remaking the 26,000-member national police force to purge it of corrupt officers and Shiite militants suspected of complicity in sectarian killings, administration and military officials said Thursday.

The commission, headed by Gen. James L. Jones, the former top United States commander in Europe, concludes that the rampant sectarianism that has existed since the formation of the police force requires that its current units “be scrapped” and reshaped into a smaller, more elite organization, according to one senior official familiar with the findings. The recommendation is that “we should start over,” the official said.

The report, which will be presented to Congress next week, is among a number of new Iraq assessments — including a national intelligence estimate and a Government Accountability Office report — that await lawmakers when they return from summer recess. But the Jones commission’s assessment is likely to receive particular attention as the work of a highly regarded team that was alone in focusing directly on the worthiness of Iraq’s army and police force.”

Start over. On the entire national police force. This is hardly encouraging news, though it’s not a surprise either, especially not after “the working draft of a secret document prepared by the U.S. embassy in Baghdad” obtained by the Nation, which says the following about the Ministry of the Interior (MOI), which is in charge of the police force:

MOI is a ‘legal enterprise’ which has been co-opted by organized criminals who act through the ‘legal enterprise’ to commit crimes such as kidnapping, extortion, bribery, etc.”

Meanwhile, the National Security Network has compiled a list of problems with assessing the administration’s claims that violence in Iraq has been reduced:

“For the past month, the Bush Administration and General Petraeus have asserted that a drop in violence is evidence that the “surge” is working. Unfortunately, the evidence is difficult to validate. Underreporting civilian deaths is, sadly, nothing new. A number of U.S. agencies differ with the Administration’s assessment that sectarian violence is down and in fact there are inconsistencies within the Pentagon’s own reporting. The Iraq Study Group concluded that in the past car-bombs that don’t kill Americans, murders, and inter-ethnic violence were not tracked in order to demonstrate reduced violence. Recent analysis indicates that some of these trends continue. More importantly, the military has refused to show the public any evidence to support the claim that violence is down.”

The full list of issues with the numbers is worth reading in its entirety. One item is particularly striking:

“There were significant revisions to the way the Pentagon’s reports measure sectarian violence between its March 2007 report and its June 2007 report. The original data for the five months before the surge began (September 2006 through January 2007) indicated approximately 5,500 sectarian killings. In the revised data in the June 2007 report, those numbers had been adjusted to roughly 7,400 killings – a 25% increase. These discrepancies have the impact of making the sectarian violence appear significantly worse during the fall and winter of 2006 before the President’s “surge” began.”

Spencer Ackerman reports this as well, with useful graphs. As he points out, this might be an artifact of a change in methodology. In any case, it would be nice if the Pentagon explained what accounts for a 25% increase in its own figures for the same month.

It would also be nice if the administration would share with us its basis for the claim that violence in Iraq is coming down. But from where I sit, it doesn’t seem to be true. (See, for instance, Kevin Drum.)

And it certainly won’t go down if the Iraqis have to disband their police force.

[UPDATE: More on the Pentagon’s numbers below the fold.]

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More On “The Antitotalitarian Left”

by hilzoy

(Note: this is a response to a post on Andrew Sullivan’s blog. Most of the posts I’ve written while guest-blogging there have fit both places; this one, however, is more a Sullivan post. But I put it here anyways. If you want the background, here’s the post I’m responding to, and here’s Steve Clemons’ response, which he posted before I posted this.)

I agree with Steve Clemons’ response to Jamie’s post ‘Whither the Antitotalitarian Left?‘. But I am also puzzled by one other point that Jamie makes:

“With the impending realist takeover of the Democratic Party, anti-totalitarianism will recede, and this is unfortunate. Whereas once the AFL-CIO had a large and effective international office, you’d be hard-pressed to hear, for instance, what they’re doing for Iraqi trade-unionists. (…)

Liberal interventionism, as a doctrine, has worked and ought to stay alive in the hearts of those claiming to be liberals–in spite of the failures of Iraq. Beyond the particularities of specific military interventions, what is most worrying is that the left has become so embittered by the response to 9/11 that it has withdrawn into a feral crouch from which it is more suspicious of what the Western democracies do to protect themselves than it is with the plight of oppressed people abroad. (…)

We may very well have a Democratic president. But what will inform their foreign policy values now that the Democratic Party is not animated by the anti-totalitarianism of old, but rather a mere hatred for the president and a serious lack of faith in even the potential role America can play in the world?”

I do not question the claim that “anti-totalitarianism” has receded in the Democratic Party. This is surely true. And there’s a good reason for it: totalitarianism is no longer the major danger that we face abroad. Despite George W. Bush’s attempts to paint al Qaeda as a totalitarian group bent on imposing a Caliphate on the world, al Qaeda is not a totalitarian organization, and its natural allies are not totalitarian regimes but failed states. In fact, there are not that many totalitarian states presently in existence; of those, some (e.g., Myanmar) pose no threat to us, while others threaten us not because they are totalitarian, but for some other reason. (E.g., North Korea threatens us because of the possibility that it might export its weapons, not its ideology.)

Our central foreign policy problems — for instance, failed states and the violence they foster, the rise of China, Iraq and the risk of further destabilization in the Middle East and Pakistan, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, the collapse of our moral standing in the world in general and the Middle East in particular — have very little to do with totalitarianism. For this reason, it would be odd if anti-totalitarianism were still the driving force behind liberal foreign policy — not quite as odd as if we were all animated by fear of German militarism or the Bonapartist menace, but odd nonetheless.

I am, however, puzzled by the claim that the Democratic Party is about to undergo a “realist takeover”, and that it is animated by “a mere hatred for the president and a serious lack of faith in even the potential role America can play in the world.” What is the evidence for this claim? As best I can tell, the only evidence Jamie provides for his assertions about what motivates Democrats is his link to this article about a new foreign policy think-tank. It describes the people in that think-tank as believing that Democrats ought to be less interventionist and more realistic. But it presents very little evidence that Democrats are in fact following that prescription; in fact, when the article Jamie cites characterizes Democratic foreign policy as a whole, it is carefully noncommittal (e.g., “Just how much influence their argument is having on the front-runners in the Democratic presidential race is not immediately apparent.”)

The article does argue that some Democratic candidates have moved in realist directions, but its evidence is fairly weak. For instance, to support the claim that this is true of Hillary Clinton, it notes that in a recent speech on her foreign policy priorities, she “listed national interest first and values last, a slight shift, but a significant one to the finely-attuned ears of the foreign policy establishment.” As causes for concern go, the order in which Hillary Clinton lists her points doesn’t rank very high on my list. Moreover, as the article notes, and as I argued earlier, Barack Obama is not a foreign-policy realist at all. In general, the article describes the Democratic Party as one in which there is a “a genuine clash of worldviews”, not one that’s about to be taken over by anyone. So I’m not sure how linking to this article supports Jamie’s position.

There are Democrats who think that the idea of promoting democracy abroad has been so tarnished by George W. Bush that we should leave it aside for now and concentrate on rebuilding our own moral credibility. This is not exactly foreign policy realism: many people who hold this view think that rebuilding our moral credibility involves doing straightforwardly good things in other countries, and generally reclaiming the right to stand for our values. Others, myself included, think that we should make the case that George W. Bush has never been serious about promoting democracy to begin with, rather than ceding the term ‘promoting democracy’ to him. Some Democrats (and Republicans) are tempted to conclude that the United States has neither the patience nor the wisdom to try to promote our values abroad at all. But I don’t think many of us are animated solely by “mere hatred for the president and a serious lack of faith in even the potential role America can play in the world”, especially not if we’re talking about policy makers and advisors, as any discussion of a “takeover” of the Democratic Party must. I’d be interested in any evidence to the contrary that Jamie might present.

That brings me to my next point, which I’ll discuss below the fold.

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Larry Craig’s Own Personal Absalom, Absalom!

by publius

Over at Volokh, Dale Carpenter has an interesting, and touching, post on the GOP’s dysfunctional relationship with homosexuality. It’s more than hypocrisy, Carpenter says, something more complicated. I think he understates the base’s visceral dislike for homosexuality (which is what’s driving all this in the first place), but it’s still an interesting post:

The big, open secret in Republican politics is that everyone knows someone gay these days and very few people – excepting some committed anti-gay activists – really care. . . . So to keep religious conservatives happy the party has done two things. First, it has steadfastly resisted efforts to ease anti-gay discrimination in public policy, even when Republican politicians know better. . . . Second, to keep the talent it needs and simply to be as humane and decent as politically possible toward particular individuals, the party has come up with its own unwritten common-law code: you can be gay and work here, we don’t care, but don’t talk about it[.]

This uneasy mix of the public and the private is not exactly what I’d call hypocrisy. It’s perhaps better described as a form of ideological schizophrenia: private acceptance welded to public rejection. It’s a very unstable alloy.

For the closeted gay Republican, this alloy means a life of desperation and fear and loneliness, of expressing one’s true feelings only in the anonymity of the Internet, of furtive bathroom encounters, of late nights darting in and out of dark bars, hoping not to be seen. It means life without a long-term partner, without real love.

In reading this, I thought of Faulkner’s Absalom, Absalom! There are some fascinating parallels between Mr. Craig and Mr. Sutpen’s tragic falls. Major spoilers below, so I’ve put it below the fold.

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Benchmarks: Then And Now

by hilzoy The President’s Address to the Nation, January 10, 2007: “I’ve made it clear to the Prime Minister and Iraq’s other leaders that America’s commitment is not open-ended. If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its promises, it will lose the support of the American people — and it will lose the … Read more

The GAO Report On Iraq

by hilzoy From the Washington Post: “Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report. The document questions whether some aspects of a more positive assessment by the White House last month adequately reflected the range … Read more

Uh, No.

by hilzoy Apparently, the editors responsible for keeping the Washington Post’s style spare and lean were on strike today: “Consider the bathroom stall, that utilitarian public enclosure of cold steel and drab hue. It can be a world of untold secrets, codes and signals as invitations to partake. Like foot-tapping: Who knew? Let us peer … Read more

Democrats: Grow A Spine

by hilzoy From the Washington Post: “A growing clamor among rank-and-file Democrats to halt President Bush’s most controversial tactics in the fight against terrorism has exposed deep divisions within the party, with many Democrats angry that they cannot defeat even a weakened president on issues that they believe should be front and center. The Democrats’ … Read more

Katrina: Two Years Later

by hilzoy When George W. Bush finally managed to get to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, he said this: “Tonight I also offer this pledge of the American people: Throughout the area hit by the hurricane, we will do what it takes, we will stay as long as it takes, to help citizens rebuild their … Read more

A Question of Motives

by publius Over at the TPM empire, I see that Republican Senators Norm Coleman (MN) and John McCain have called on Craig to resign. That’s quite a step. To be cynical, though, they were likely motivated to take this extreme step for two completely different reasons. Coleman — being up for re-election in a Blue … Read more

Copyright Law v. iPhone Freedom Fighters

by publius Big news brewing on the iPhone front. As you may have heard, a teenager (not Miss Teen South Carolina, sources report) posted instructions about how to “unlock” the iPhone. Unlocking it means you can use it on other networks and not just AT&T’s. There’s a little wrinkle though – copyright law. I’m still … Read more