WTF??

by hilzoy

From Ha’Aretz (h/t TPM)

“The United States demanded that Israel desist from even exploratory contacts with Syria, of the sort that would test whether Damascus is serious in its declared intentions to hold peace talks with Israel.

In meetings with Israeli officials recently, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was forceful in expressing Washington’s view on the matter.

The American argument is that even “exploratory talks” would be considered a prize in Damascus, whose policy and actions continue to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty and the functioning of its government, while it also continues to stir unrest in Iraq, to the detriment of the U.S. presence there. (…)

According to senior Israeli officials, the American position vis-a-vis Syria, as it was expressed by the secretary of state, reflects a hardening of attitudes.

When Israeli officials asked Secretary Rice about the possibility of exploring the seriousness of Syria in its calls for peace talks, her response was unequivocal: Don’t even think about it.”

About six weeks ago, word first surfaced of a set of earlier, unofficial negotiations between Israel and Syria, which had resulted in a draft agreement between the two countries. The agreement provides for an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, most of which would then be turned into a park accessible (without visas) to both Syrians and Israelis. (Personally, I think this is a very imaginative solution.) It also provides for demilitarization of the border, Israeli control of water rights from the Sea of Galilee and the upper Jordan, and verification. Moreover:

“According to Geoffrey Aronson, an American from the Washington-based Foundation for Middle East Peace, who was involved in the talks, an agreement under American auspices would call for Syria to ensure that Hezbollah would limit itself to being solely a political party.

He also told Haaretz that Khaled Meshal, Hamas’ political bureau chief, based in Damascus, would have to leave the Syrian capital.

Syria would also exercise its influence for a solution to the conflict in Iraq, through an agreement between Shi’a leader Muqtada Sadr and the Sunni leadership, and in addition, it would contribute to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the refugee problem.”

It goes without saying that there are always reasons to be skeptical of such things, and that even if all parties are negotiating in complete good faith, lots of things can go wrong between an initial round of unofficial talks and a final peace treaty. That said:

What could we possibly have been thinking?

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Vilsack Out

by hilzoy From the Des Moines Register: “Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack plans to withdraw from the 2008 presidential campaign today, Democratic sources in Iowa said. Vilsack planned to hold a news conference at 11 a.m. to make what campaign “major campaign announcement,” aides to the candidate said. Vilsack had said he would win the … Read more

Once Bitten, Twice Shy (Baby)

by publius Turning back to the whole “should military force be on the table” debate, the Post today provides yet another reason why we would benefit from taking force off the table — namely, our saber-rattling is making international cooperation on Iran far more difficult. Russia, China and several European countries have become increasingly uncomfortable … Read more

Civics Lesson

by hilzoy One of the things I love about blogging is that I end up learning all these wonderfully arcane things. For instance: I had never previously heard of Senate Organizing Resolutions. If one had sat down next to me on a bus, I wouldn’t have known what it was. And yet all this time … Read more

Chimpanzees Make Weapons

by hilzoy From the Washington Post “Chimpanzees living in the West African savannah have been observed fashioning deadly spears from sticks and using the hand-crafted tools to hunt small mammals — the first routine production of deadly weapons ever observed in animals other than humans. The multi-step spear-making practice, documented by researchers in Senegal who … Read more

Double sunset

by Charles

I was driving home from the office the other day, taking the semi-scenic route, and noticed a highly unusual sunset. I’m not sure if the picture does it justice, but looks like a regular sunset at the left and a second one–about half as strong–at the right. The photo was taken from Scoop Jackson’s extended front yard.

Dsc00451

The foreground is Naval Station Everett, home to the USS Abraham Lincoln, and further back is Puget Sound, Whidbey Island and the Olympic mountain range. Here’s a close-up of the faux sunset.

Dsc00453

The above photo is in the direction of Sequim, which is in the Olympic mountain rain shadow and gets about 10 inches of a rain per year, and past Sequim is the Strait of Wanda Fuca*. There must have been a hole in the clouds that created this effect. Anyway, in all my years in the Seattle area, I’d never seen anything like this before.

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Just Shoot Me Now — If You Have A Rifle…

by hilzoy Honestly, I thought I was done for the night, but then I found this NYT article about troops deploying without, get this, rifles: ““We’re behind the power curve, and we can’t piddle around,” Maj. Gen. Harry M. Wyatt III, commander of the Oklahoma National Guard, said in an interview. He added that one-third … Read more

Two Countries

by hilzoy Zimbabwe’s meltdown continues apace, but today (the 21st) we have the added irony of Robert Mugabe’s birthday celebration, to which his starving populace is being asked to contribute: “President Robert G. Mugabe of Zimbabwe turned 83 on Wednesday to the strains of the song “God Bless President Mugabe” on state-controlled radio, along with … Read more

Tom Vilsack’s Very, Very Bad Idea

by hilzoy I didn’t watch the Democratic debate (debates? This early??), but then I noticed (h/t Atrios and Matt Yglesias) that Jonathan Singer at MyDD wrote this: “Final question covers Social Security and Medicare. Vilsack talks about balancing the budget of these programs by reindexing the program to prices, not prices and wages.” Price indexing? … Read more

Obama On Preventive War

by hilzoy

About a week ago, Katherine wrote that the issue she’d most like to ask the Democratic candidates for President about is the Bush doctrine of preventive war. It’s important, in this context, to be clear on the distinction between preventive and preemptive war. Preemptive war is a war started when you know that an enemy is about to attack you, but has not yet done so; the standard description of preemption is Daniel Webster’s: the “necessity of that self-defence is instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation”. Preventive war is a war started against an enemy who is not (as far as you know) actually about to attack you, but whom you regard as a threat for some other reason. Preemptive war has always been regarded as OK: if you see an enemy massing its troops at the border, entering the launch codes on its missiles, and so forth, you do not have to wait until that enemy actually strikes. Preventive war, by contrast, has not generally been regarded as OK. Nonetheless, it’s one of the pillars of the “Bush Doctrine“:

“If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long. (Applause.) (…) The war on terror will not be won on the defensive. We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge. (Applause.) In the world we have entered, the only path to safety is the path of action. And this nation will act. (Applause.)” (emphasis added.)

I agree with Katherine that this is one of the most important questions facing Democratic candidates. Since I’m leaning towards Obama, I thought I’d see if I could figure out where he stood on this question. Short answer: He doesn’t actually come right out and say “I oppose preventive war”, but he comes pretty close. The longer answer is below the fold.

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