Month: November 2005

Paradox

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by hilzoy Via Unqualified Offerings: Julian Sanchez has a good article on torture that includes this, about apologists for torture: “Implicit in many of their arguments is the notion that there’s something contemptibly fainthearted about those who want to hew to the principles of basic decency fit for a nation that styles itself primus inter … Read more

I Love This Sentence

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by hilzoy From Pharyngula, a glorious sentence to be thankful for: “This video from the BBC of slugs mating is spectacular—it’s got mucus ropes, everting male organs, entwining penises, and penises forming a translucent flower-like globe.” Before blogs, I would never, ever have encountered that sentence, and my life would have been the poorer for … Read more

Thanksgiving

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by hilzoy Here is George Washington’s first Thanksgiving Proclamation. Reading it, I am struck by the unquestioned assumption that the God Washington asks us to thank is a real being: a person with a mind of his own, not the object of some sort of vague spiritual gesture. He is, moreover, a being who is … Read more

Quarantine!

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by hilzoy

On October 4, President Bush said this at a press conference:

“The policy decisions for a President in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult. One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country, and how do you then enforce a quarantine? When — it’s one thing to shut down airplanes; it’s another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that’s able to plan and move. And so that’s why I put it on the table. I think it’s an important debate for Congress to have.”

When he made that remark, I thought: the idea of using quarantines in the face of the threat of disease is exactly the sort of idea that might occur to some people for bad reasons, and perhaps be opposed by others for equally bad reasons, especially in the face of an emerging infectious disease. Just think back to the early 1980s, when AIDS first hit the news: there were all sorts of calls for quarantines; kids with AIDS were prevented from going to school or, in one case, allowed to sit in a glass box in the classroom; and so on and so forth. This was a completely inappropriate reaction to AIDS: for reasons that will become clear later, AIDS is a terrible candidate for quarantine. Nonetheless, they were very common then (and some people still advocate them to this day.)

It seemed to me that it would be a very good idea to write something about quarantines and the circumstances in which they can and should be used, so that as many people as possible outside fields like public health will already have thought about them before the need arises and emotions get heated. That way, there will be more people scattered about the general populace who can assess calls for quarantines if avian flu or some other new and dangerous infectious disease hits. And the more such people there are, the less likely we will be to do something stupid.

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???!!!

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by hilzoy [Second Update (first is at the bottom): I can’t recall posting something and regretting it so quickly. I did not mean to suggest that I knew this story to be true, or even particularly believed it, but I also had forgotten that the Mirror was the paper that broke the detainee abuse story … Read more

Scanlon Pleads. The Guilty Get Nervous. Good.

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by hilzoy

From the Washington Post:

“A onetime congressional staffer who became a top partner to lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty yesterday to conspiring to bribe a congressman and other public officials and agreed to pay back more than $19 million he fraudulently charged Indian tribal clients.

The plea agreement between prosecutors and Michael Scanlon, a former press secretary to then-House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), provided fresh detail about the alleged bribes. The document also indicated the nature of testimony Scanlon is prepared to offer against a congressman it calls “Representative #1” — who has been identified by attorneys in the case as Rep. Robert W. Ney (R-Ohio).

Scanlon, a 35-year-old former public relations executive, faces a maximum five years in prison and a $250,000 fine, but the penalty could be reduced depending on the level of his cooperation with prosecutors. His help is expected to be crucial to the Justice Department’s wide-ranging Abramoff investigation, which began early last year after the revelation that Scanlon and the lobbyist took in tens of millions of dollars from Indian tribes unaware of their secret partnership to jack up fees and split profits.

Investigators are looking at half a dozen members of Congress, current and former senior Hill aides, a former deputy secretary of the interior, and Abramoff’s former lobbying colleagues, according to sources familiar with the probe who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Because of his central role in much of Abramoff’s business, Scanlon could be a key witness in any trials that arise from the case.”

This is really, really important.

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The Importance of Being Earnest

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by von

I confess:  it was difficult for me to read Hilzoy’s piece below, "Failures of Will."

It wasn’t that the writing was complex or convoluted:  Hilzoy is a subtle thinker, but she writes with an admirable clarity.  It wasn’t that the arguments are unusual or hard to grasp:  her arguments are straightforward and, in places at least, well supported.  And it certainly wasn’t that Hilzoy’s words made me, a war supporter, feel uncomfortable or guilty as she tried to nail my (supposed) heartfelt beliefs to a metaphorical wall. 

No, it wasn’t any of that.  I had trouble finishing Hilzoy’s piece because its assumptions regarding the Bush Administration and its supporters are almost impossible to me to understand.  Hilzoy’s basic presumption seems to be that the Bush Administration is stupid and black hearted and that the Bush Administration’s supporters are testosterone-fueled nincompoops, easily misled by the latest shiny thing.  Hilzoy’s piece appears founded on a caricature, and not a flattering one at that. 

It seems to me that Hilzoy has absolutely no idea what actually motivates the folks on the "other side" of this debate.  If we’re going to have a debate over the war, both sides need to know what motivates the other.  Both sides need to understand that the other is not arguing from idiocy, malice, or foolishness, but actually has reasons why they believe what they believe.  And that some of those reasons are good ones; and that some of these questions are hard; and that smart and decent folks can actually come to opposing opinions on the war. 

I am a war supporter who agrees with Hilzoy that the Bush Administration has been negligent in its planning in Iraq.  I am a war supporter who, out of disgust with the Administration, voted for John Kerry in the last election, a man who did and still does strike me as a total boob — and a silicone boob at that.  I am a war supporter who believes that there can be No End But Victory in Iraq, and that victory cannot be achieved if we preemptively declare defeat.

I am a war supporter who disagrees passionately with Hilzoy’s piece.

Read on.

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American Forces Should Withdraw in Six Months

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by Charles

Why?  Because their mission in Fallujah has been mostly accomplished.  Kevin Sites, made famous for his video of an American soldier killing an Iraqi in Fallujah, interviewed U.S. Marine Colonel David Berger, and here is what Berger said about the security situation.

SITES: "Frustrating from the point that if something doesn’t get done soon there is the potential for more violence? Have you noticed anything that is manifesting that frustration?"

BERGER: "No, not at all. It isn’t at that kind of tipping point where if things don’t improve in another month it’s going to go south, no not at all. The two biggest reasons are the [Iraqi] army and the Iraqi police. We’ve spent a long time working with them — especially the army. They’re firmly entrenched here, people know, and they have a good confidence level.

"And the police are also a big factor here. … There are a thousand, maybe 1,100 police and they are on the streets every day, 24/7. The people very much trust them and look to them for security, and I think in another six months [the Iraqi police] will be in control of the whole city themselves. And the army and the rest of the military forces will continue to push out."

SITES: "You’re saying in six months the police will be able to control the whole city?"

BERGER: "If they keep on going like they’re going, yes."

SITES: "How is this police force different, which, along with the Iraqi national guard back in April 2004, turned the city over to insurgents?"

BERGER: "It’s more confident, it’s more highly trained, and that makes all the difference in the world. There’s still a lot of perception that some of the police have too much loyalty to certain parts of the city, and won’t be objective as law enforcement parties. But I think the police chief and the leadership he has selected is key to making sure that doesn’t happen. He has even established an internal affairs-type section that roots out — just like any police force does — those people that are working both sides.

"The big difference is training, absolutely. And there are a lot of little things, like in any military law enforcement: uniforms, discipline, holding people accountable. Those things didn’t exist eight or 10 months ago; now they do."

SITES: "In the year since the battle for Fallujah, have you been successful in keeping the insurgents from returning, and also keeping the weapons flow out?

BERGER: "Yes. I don’t just think so. Statistically, when you look at it, there’s no question."

SITES: "Is there an ambient level of violence that’s always there?"

BERGER: "Yes, I’m sure there is. It’s higher than I’d like. But because the control points in the city are manned so efficiently, there’s always an influx that’s going to get through, but the cordon and containment is good. There’s going to be some that get through but it’s absolutely manageable. And it’s so small that there is not going to be a buildup in the city."

Emphasis mine.  The only problem that I can see is that this type of information is reported in a blog and not by the Bush administration and not by the mainstream media.  Fallujah isn’t solved, partly because we have not released funds to help restore its economy, but what a difference a year makes.  A valid reason for troop reductions is that there are enough Iraqi forces sufficiently trained to do the job in the stead of coalition forces.  There will be troop reductions in 2006, and why not.  By August of next year, there will be 270,000 trained Iraqis to do it.  For those looking mainstream media fatcats looking for tipping points, perhaps they can cast their eyes at the critical mass of trained native troops available to do the job.

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Is al-Zarqawi Dead?

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OK, so even ABC’s evening news is reporting that, to paraphrase an AP story, there are efforts under way to determine if terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was among the dead in Mosul where eight suspected al-Qaida members died in a gunfight, and three insurgents detonated explosives and killed themselves to avoid capture, suggesting an … Read more

Wanna Win the War? Sacrifice Bush

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by Edward

As seems to have become my habit recently, I wrote this post before reading Hilzoy’s preceding post. What a freakin’ brilliant effort that is, I must say. I could not agree with her more and only offer these paltry-by-comparison observations because eventually I let myself dare dream one step past her assessment.

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Three things I’ve read recently have led me to believe that Iraq is defnitely lost unless there’s some way to change the President. First was the manifesto at No End But Victory:

This is not a partisan issue. This is not a left- or right-wing issue. This is an American and Iraqi issue, and all men of good faith must now come together to remind our leadership that whatever our politics, and whatever we thought of the decision to go to war, there can be only one end:

Victory.

I disagree with much of the text before and after this excerpt, but I believe this part is indeed the case. Victory in Iraq will require a united effort of Americans, left and right, and although I opposed invading Iraq for too many reasons to list, once we were in, I knew failure was not an option we could allow ourselves to become resigned to. Not if we want the world to become safer. Letting Iraq descend into Civil War would make us less safe than we currently are. We must keep that fact foremost in our minds when formulating our future plans.

The second thing I read was Frank Rich’s column in today’s New York Times. It’s available to subscriber’s only, but I’ll quote the relevant bits (I’ve retyped this from the print version…please forgive any typos):

Only since his speech about "Islamo-fascism" in early October has Mr. Bush started trying to make distinctions between the "evildoers" of Saddam’s regime and the Islamic radicals who did and do directly threaten us. But even if anyone was still listening to this president, it would be too little and too late. The only hope for getting Americans to focus on the war we can’t excape is to clear the decks by telling the truth about the war of choice in Iraq: that it is making us less safe, not more, and that we have to learn from its mistakes and calculate the damange it has caused as we reboot and move on.

Mr. Bush is incapable of such candor.

I ultimately want to disagree with Mr. Rich that we’re on our way of out Iraq. I’m holding tight to the hope that something can turn this around, but I agree with his assessment that clearing the decks–that is, changing the narrative and thus the public opinion that’s increasingly against the effort–requires telling the truth about the war.

Finally, I read David Brook’s column in today’s New York Times (also only by subscription online). Mr. Brook’s offered the most sobering, yet ultimately most optimistic information on what changing public opinion will take:

As a survey by the Pew Research Center suggests, most journalists and most academics think the war is unwinnable….. When you talk to serious, nonpartisan experts with experience on the ground, you find that most think the war is at least a 50-50 proposition. Everyone I’ve spoken to, given the consequences of bugging out, believes that it is therefore worth struggling on.

That’s the sobering part…what was optimistic was the part I left out of that quote:

[B]ut 64 percent of military officers believe the U.S. can prevail.

Now, while that perception might be wishful thinking or a misguided example of the sort of can-do attitude that makes our military the superior organization is, it’s also possible that it’s the professional assessment of folks who’ve spent their lives in the business of such things. I’m hoping it’s the latter.

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