Seeing Oil Spots

by Charles The latest by Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is worth a whole read, so I’m only excerpting the summary: Because they lack a coherent strategy, U.S. forces in Iraq have failed to defeat the insurgency or improve security. Winning will require a new approach to counterinsurgency, one that focuses on providing security to Iraqis … Read more

This is a public service announcement…

With guitar!

Ok, scratch the guitar part.  I’ve contacted Typepad about the timetag issue, and they’ve recommended that I (or the blogowner) republish the whole flippin’ blog.  I’m attempting to do that today, and I have no idea whether having other users log in as Moe will interrupt the process, so please…don’t.  I got as far as 2000 or so pages on republish this morning, and then it died.  I’m going to try once more and if it doesn’t work, I’ll try it again tonight, when maybe things aren’t so busy.

UPDATE:  Well, THAT didn’t work.  Appealing to the MT Gods, me.

UPDATE, Update:  I’ve exhausted everything I know to try, and I’ve got the Typepad folks working on it.  If it’s got both them and me stymied thus far, no amount of complaining on your part is going to fix it.  Thanks for your patience and/or restraint.  If you’ve got some some suggestions as to what to do that perhaps we haven’t already tried, please do offer them in comments.  Pointing out that this is yet another place where timestamps would be useful is not, in point of fact, helpful.  Typepad’s replies to the trouble ticket I submitted seem to indicate we’re not the only weblog bothered by this problem, so it may very well be a problem with Typepad itself.

In other news, an issue near and dear to my heart (and probably none of yours) is nearing fruition:

Read more

Katrina: Disaster

by hilzoy I didn’t watch the news today until 10pm, and so didn’t know how much worse things had gotten (though I can now see that I would have if I had checked Gary’s comments instead of writing a new post. And no, Gary, this is not the first time…) Yesterday I was relieved that … Read more

Formative Experiences: Foreign Policy

by hilzoy

While thinking about Sebastian’s thread, it occurred to me that my thinking about foreign policy crystallized around some very specific episodes, and that it would be interesting to know what everyone else’s were. (It might also help us know where everyone else is coming from. On reflection, I found I could barely imagine what it would be like to have the reference points of someone, say, 15 years younger than me.) Here are mine. (Just foreign policy; adding domestic policy would take too long.)

When I was growing up, both the war in Vietnam and the Cold War were the backdrop to everything. My parents were, basically, liberal internationalists. They had met in Paris, in 1954 and therefore they had followed the French Indochina war, and therefore they knew a fair amount about Vietnam way before the US got seriously involved, and thought our getting involved was a bad idea from the outset. And this meant that they did not go through any sort of wrenching change of heart in 1965 or ’66, and thus were at no risk of lurching from too far on one side to too far on the other. They just thought that we did not have significant national interests there, and that there was no real case for going to war to support one bad regime against another. I tended to agree. (And I read a lot about it later, not wanting to be stuck with a kid’s understanding of it, and have never seen any reason to change my mind.)

The major lesson I took from the Vietnam war, as a kid, was this: it seemed to me that we had gotten into it without having fully thought it through. What if advisors weren’t enough? Were we prepared to send troops? What if the troops we sent weren’t enough? Etc. By the time I started being really aware of the war, around ’67 or ’68, it seemed to me to be a kind of situation I (as a kid) completely recognized from my own experience: the kind where you say something dumb without thinking, and then are made to follow up on it in some way, and then can’t figure out how to backtrack, and end up having completely painted yourself into a corner with no way out. The obvious way to deal with these situations, thought 8 year old me, was not to get into them in the first place, and if you do, just apologize immediately and extricate yourself. (I did not, then or now, consistently act on this knowledge, more’s the pity.) Likewise here: I thought you should never get into a war without being very clear about how you can get out again without damage to your credibility. Never, never, never. And never for some vague reasons like: this is communism, we should oppose communism, therefore we should intervene. Never, ever get into a war without knowing exactly what you’re doing.

About the Cold War: it was just omnipresent, though in its later, 60s form. It’s relevant, though, that my mother is Swedish (she moved to the US after marrying my Dad), and so half my relatives were (a) not from the US (which meant that I always knew what it was like to see the US from the outside), and (b) living disproof of the idea that all leftists were communists. (It’s hard to disbelieve in the existence of people who are, in fact, your grandparents: proud and committed socialists (and democrats) who took it to be obvious that the US was a fundamentally admirable country and the USSR was not.)

It was also part of the backdrop of my childhood that the US government sometimes did the right thing and sometimes did not. The major political events of my parents and their friends were World War II and McCarthyism, which made either reflexive dislike of or reflexive cheering for the US and all its works just impossible. Our basic assumption, when I was growing up, was that the US was founded on admirable principles to which it sometimes lived up and sometimes did not, and that it was our job as citizens to help it to do the right thing more often.

Read more

Aim to the Middle

The current "Able Danger" story is interesting, but I have resisted commenting on it for the same reason I don’t comment on reports that bin Laden has been captured–initial reports on sensational subjects may differ greatly from final reports (see also "we found WMD").  But I was reading this comment thread at crookedtimber and one … Read more

Explanations and Terrorist Attacks

–Sebastian I generally agree with Hilzoy’s recent post on justification and explanation but something vaguely nags me about it.  So of course rather than talking about what I agree with I want to talk about what I don’t agree with.  Unfortunately I can’t quite put my finger on it, so this post is going to … Read more

Open Thread: Neither Fair Nor Balanced

by hilzoy I think we are in need of an open thread. As I have nothing particularly interesting to say myself, I’ll just cite some quotes that I love. “Are we all living like this? Two lives, the ideal outer life and the inner imaginative life where we keep our secrets? … The Buddhists say … Read more

Katrina

by hilzoy

I’ve been out and about all weekend, doing things other than watching the news, so I only just realized that what was a minor hurricane the last time I checked now has all the makings of a major catastrophe. From the NOAA:

“DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.”

StormTrack puts it more concisely:

“I am going to make this very simple. If you are in Mississippi or Lousiana near or below sea level, GET OUT!!!”

*** Update: here’s a link to donate to the Red Cross. (End Update; more or the original post below the fold.)

Read more

A Fact To Bear In Mind

by hilzoy Things do not look good for the Iraqi Constitution: “Amid conflicting reports about continuing negotiations, government spokesman Laith Kubba told al-Arabiya television that “consensus is almost impossible at this point.” “The draft should be put before the people,” he said, referring to the nationwide referendum on the document that must be held by … Read more