Month: September 2004

The Respectfully Dissenting (nee’ Protest) Placeholding Thread

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I’m all for fiscal discipline, and Lord knows I’ve been critical of Bush for lacking such discipline in the past. But the rather modest tax relief proposed by Republicans and discussed by Hilzoy, below, is hardly undisciplined. Yes, the proposed poultry-litter biofuels tax “relief” probably ain’t worth the crap it’s derived from, but the rest … Read more

Where Have You Gone, Fiscal Discipline? (A Nation Turns Its Lonely Eyes To You…)

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Woo woo woo. “Suddenly, a tax package designed to extend a trio of popular middle-class tax cuts is being eyed as the legislative vehicle to extend a host of other expiring tax breaks from research credits for corporations to tax credits to promote economic development at ground zero in New York. Overriding Democratic objections that … Read more

Humbling Reality Check

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In the comments on Brad DeLong’s blog, someone offered a humbling comparison of the influence of NYT columnist David Brooks versus that of the collective writers of Obsidian Wings. There just aren’t enough emoticons: Who knows what Brooks believes. But people believe him. Conducting an informal survey (and taking liberties with the notion of data) … Read more

The Textbook Defintion of “Deluded”

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Warning: Not even an attempt to be PC ahead….

I believe that Politically Correct language has its uses in helping Americans practice tolerance. I believe tolerance is not a state of mind or a destination one reaches, but rather a process one practices throughout one’s entire life, especially in those times when predjudice, bigotry, or simply slopping thinking seem easier. To avoid inadvertently hurting others, you need to stay vigilant about what you say.

Then again, there are those times when you need to whip out your membership card, snap your fingers, pop your neck, and get real on some sad deluded homos. Like these ones:

The Abe Lincoln Black Republican Caucus (ALBRC), a group of young urban Black gay Republicans, voted today in a special call meeting in Dallas, Texas, to endorse President Bush for re-election.

The ALBRC was co-founded by Don Sneed, a member of the Log Cabin Republicans, to address the political issues and needs of young Black gay Republicans, who he says: “Our voices are never heard, yet we exist and are growing in numbers.” The endorsement was fueled by the Log Cabin Republicans’ refusal to endorse President Bush. “We think that the ‘Republican Tent’ is inclusive and there is room for differences, but one does not pick up their marbles and go home if there are a few points of disagreement,” stated Anthony Falls, Republican Precinct Chairman — Dallas and the ALBRC National Spokesperson. “The ALBRC does not support marriage for gays, yet we do support and call for recognition of domestic partnerships,” he stated.

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Happy Birthday

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to the Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, which is one hundred and forty two today: That on the first day of January in the year of our Lord, one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, all persons held as slaves within any State, or designated part of a State, the people whereof shall then be in rebellion against … Read more

Just Guessing…

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Yesterday, President Bush responded to the bleak CIA estimates about Iraq’s future as follows: “President Bush, determined to put an optimistic face on deadly conditions in Iraq, said on Tuesday that the CIA was just guessing when it said the war-racked country was in danger of slipping into civil war. “The CIA laid out several … Read more

Malkin in the Middle

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Professor Bainbridge* and Joe Carter at The Evangelical Outpost weigh in on Michelle Malkin’s “In Defense of Internment”; each has a thoughtful post as to why the blogosphere and media haven’t given more play to Professor Muller‘s takedown of Malkin’s arguments. Meanwhile: Professor Leiter weighs in with the expected less-than-temperate take on the matter; Professor … Read more

New Federal Budget Cuts Are “Here”

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And by “here,” I mean New York City.

Back in May I wrote about the gathering indications, despite all the compassionate campaigning, that the Bush Administration is planning for some significant budget cuts in “virtually all agencies in charge of domestic programs.” At that time, the administration was dismissing the alarm bells people were ringing as much ado about nothing…they were simply doing some math and scenario planning: Go back into your houses, folks, nothing to see here.

***Well, as is usually the case with the Bush administration, what you fear they’re really up to is mild compared to what they’re really up to.*** What’s especially disturbing about their latest efforts is that they seem to be specifically screwing some key Blue states.

The Bush administration has proposed reducing the value of subsidized-housing vouchers given to poor residents in New York City next year, with even bigger cuts planned for some urban areas in New England. The proposal is based on a disputed new formula that averages higher rents in big cities with those of suburban areas, which tend to have lower costs.
The proposals could have a “significantly detrimental impact” in some areas by forcing poor families to pay hundreds of extra dollars per month in rent, according to United States Representative Christopher Shays, a Connecticut Republican. That extra burden could be too much for thousands of tenants, “potentially leaving them homeless,” Mr. Shays wrote in a recent letter to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

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Blog Law

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From Orin Kerr at Volokh, I see that the U.S. House has “approved a bill that would increase jail time for identity thieves and other fraudulent Web users who register sites under false identities.” This is a kinda big deal, because it appears to criminalize the rather-common practice of bloggers to submit false information in … Read more

Ticket or Trophy?

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On the lighter side of today’s news, a motorcyclist in Minnesota was given a speeding ticket near the Wisconsin border for going, get this, 205 mph: On Saturday afternoon, State Patrol pilot Al Loney was flying near Wabasha, in southeastern Minnesota on the Wisconsin border, watching two motorcyclists racing along U.S. Highway 61. When one … Read more

Social Security and Budgets

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There have been recent discussions about Bush’s proposed budget (see here or here for instance.) There seems to be some major freaking out about the transition cost of Bush’s Social Security Plan. But as Arnold Kling points out the transition cost is not a new government liability. It is simply moving an off-book debt onto … Read more

Why Did I Bother? (Blame Blue.)

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So you might be wondering why exactly I went to the trouble of writing all those long War on Terror posts. (I remember one commentator saying “Why don’t you cast your vote already?”, which made me laugh.) Basically, it’s all Blue’s fault. When I wrote the initial Why I will not vote for Bush post … Read more

Why I will Not Vote For Bush #2d: Homeland Security

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After 9/11, you’d think it would be obvious that we should work hard to secure our country against terrorist attacks. Some of this work has to be done overseas, but some of it involves taking steps here at home to make it more difficult for terrorist attacks against us to succeed. The Bush administration has argued that they have made America safer. But if you examine their record on homeland security, there are very serious problems.

Basically, what has happened is this: in the wake of 9/11, after initially opposing both steps, the Bush administration formed the Department of Homeland Security and federalized airport screening. Since 9/11 had demonstrated glaring holes in aviation security, the Congress passed measures requiring significant improvements in baggage and passenger screening. While there have been a few problems (pdf), like the fact that we still screen only 5% of air cargo, air transportation is now much safer than it was before 9/11.

However, nothing about al Qaeda’s history suggests that having used airplanes to attack us once, they will stick to airplanes in the future. This being the case, we should have worked equally hard to protect ourselves in other vulnerable areas. But we haven’t. As the 9/11 Commission report notes (p. 391), “Over 90% of the nation’s 5.3 billion investment in the TSA goes to aviation — to fight the last war.” Other areas remain dangerously insecure, in a way that, after 9/11, I find it hard to understand. For some highlights, read on.

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Variations on a Theme

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Vox Day offers to debate Michelle Malkin regarding her book, “In Defense of Internment,” on September 25, 2004 on the Northern Alliance Radio Show. Eugene Volokh is calling on Christians to condemn certain extraordinarily condemnable remarks by Jimmy Swaggert regarding homosexuality. Eric Muller is noting the curious tendency of many in the right-wing blogosphere to … Read more

Did 1,000 troops die for nothing?

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In what could only be described as an attempt to get in touch with the basest instincts of his inner hack, David Brooks shamelessly spins and distorts Kerry’s foreign policy speech at NYU in his column today. There’s plenty to call him on among all that drivel, but this was the most revolting bit of … Read more

Gerrymandering

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Both Kevin Drum and Matthew Yglesias are talking about a subject that we can agree on–gerrymandering sucks!

Kevin’s idea to fix it is a bit wacky, and Matthew’s fix is a radical reform from the American district concept (For a look at what his ballot could look like in California see under the extended entry something I shamelessly stole from commenter “Bumperstickerist”).

My concept is shared by some other people in a few of the comments. Take a fairly simple computer program and feed it only a very few variables. Make compactness an important variable or maybe general fit to county lines. Feed it only population data, no race data, no party affiliation data, no religious data, no economic data. Make the program simple enough that it can be replicated on any home computer. Use publically available census data. After the first decade draw the lines with a slight weighting to keeping the district close to its original boundary. That’s it. No safe districts based on gerrymandering.

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Novak: US Set to Cut & Run from Iraq in 2005

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Stick a fork in it. Iraq is done. At least according to columnist Robert Novak:

Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.

This prospective policy is based on Iraq’s national elections in late January, but not predicated on ending the insurgency or reaching a national political settlement. Getting out of Iraq would end the neoconservative dream of building democracy in the Arab world. The United States would be content having saved the world from Saddam Hussein’s quest for weapons of mass destruction.

The reality of hard decisions ahead is obscured by blather on both sides in a presidential campaign. Six weeks before the election, Bush cannot be expected to admit even the possibility of a quick withdrawal. Sen. John Kerry’s political aides, still languishing in fantastic speculation about European troops to the rescue, do not even ponder a quick exit. But Kerry supporters with foreign policy experience speculate that if elected, their candidate would take the same escape route.

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Kerry Clear

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Via DailyKos
~~~~~~~~~~~
Kerry delivered a crystal clear speech on Iraq and Terorism at NYU today. Here are some highlights:

On Terror:

In fighting the war on terrorism, my principles are straight forward. The terrorists are beyond reason. We must destroy them. As president, I will do whatever it takes, as long as it takes, to defeat our enemies. But billions of people around the world yearning for a better life are open to America’s ideals. We must reach them.

To win, America must be strong. And America must be smart. The greatest threat we face is the possibility Al Qaeda or other terrorists will get their hands on a nuclear weapon.

To prevent that from happening, we must call on the totality of America’s strength. Strong alliances, to help us stop the world’s most lethal weapons from falling into the most dangerous hands. A powerful military, transformed to meet the new threats of terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction. And all of America’s power – our diplomacy, our intelligence system, our economic power, the appeal of our values – each of which is critical to making America more secure and preventing a new generation of terrorists from emerging.

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CBS Regrets Bush Memos Story

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I’ve generally avoided the tangents of this story, as I don’t believe what Bush did 30 years ago should be an issue in this campaign (and I don’t wish to debate it, so don’t be disappointed if I don’t address any objections). But the admission by CBS that they should not have run the story … Read more

The Reality Behind the “Silence” of Moderate Muslims: A Case Example

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The same tired arguments about “When will these Muslims speak out against terror?” are being rehashed over at Tacitus. One of my favorite comments in response to a list of suggested readings I offered for those who think moderate Muslims don’t speak out enough was “Such views should be ringing from the Minarets everywhere!” I wondered, in response, how many minarets this commenter regularly listens to, but you can read that exchange over there.

The worst argument on this topic, and yes, it reared its illogical head over at Tacitus again, has been that if moderate Muslims really despised the violence being conducted under cover of their religion, there would be all kinds of fatwas issued by clerics against bin Laden.

The audacity and lack of thought behind this demand is sickening. The US cannot locate bin Laden. AQ is clearly able to continue to conduct terrorists strikes at will, despite three years of (supposedly [see hilzoy’s post here]) our best efforts to stop them. But these critics keep demanding individual clerics with nowhere near the same resources we have to protect themselves should be speaking out, risking their lives. Maybe they should cut out the middle man and just commit suicide…would that be satisfactory?

Case Example:
Here’s the reality of what it means for clerics to speak out in this day and age:

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Unlikely Predictions

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Short post, then off to volleyball. I was talking with my sister a couple of days ago. She reminded me of something that had been rattling around in the back of my head. This election, no really knows who the ‘likely voters’ are. I’m not a big fan of the way moment-to-moment polls drive the … Read more

Guess What’s Less Important Than Tax Cuts For The Rich?

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Catching Osama bin Laden and disrupting al Qaeda, that’s what. From the New York Times:

“Three years after the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence Agency has fewer experienced case officers assigned to its headquarters unit dealing with Osama bin Laden than it did at the time of the attacks, despite repeated pleas from the unit’s leaders for reinforcements, a senior C.I.A. officer with extensive counterterrorism experience has told Congress.

The bin Laden unit is stretched so thin that it relies on inexperienced officers rotated in and out every 60 to 90 days, and they leave before they know enough to be able to perform any meaningful work, according to a letter the C.I.A. officer has written to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees.

“There has been no systematic effort to groom Al Qaeda expertise” among C.I.A. officers since Sept. 11, 2001, according to the letter, written by Michael F. Scheuer, the former chief of the agency’s bin Laden unit and the author of a best-selling book that is critical of the Bush administration’s handling of the war on terror.” (…)

Mr. Scheuer, a 22-year veteran of the C.I.A., served as the first chief of the agency’s bin Laden unit from 1996 until 1999.”

Is there any reason at all why we can’t find a way to adequately fund the CIA unit charged with catching bin Laden? Couldn’t we trim a bit off our agricultural subsidies, or postpone some highway construction, or something? I know I’d be willing to defer my share of the tax cuts for a year or so, if it meant making sure that this unit had enough agents, and that those agents stayed long enough to develop real expertise. I’d even be willing to defer them for two years, just to make sure that the units tracking other terrorists who don’t have bin Laden’s name recognition are fully funded too.

But hey, things could be worse. If John Kerry is elected, we’d go back to a pre-9/11 mindset, and think what a dreadful change that would be.

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I Really Hope the Financial Times Has It Wrong.

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From the Financial Times (non-subscription link here), via Intel Dump: “The Bush administration’s warnings that it will not “tolerate” a nuclear-armed Iran have opened up a lively policy debate in Washington over the merits of military strikes against the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme. Analysts close to the administration say military options are under consideration, but … Read more

Iraq Update

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Having been so negative on Iraq of late, I’m pleased to pass along a contrary view from one of our soldiers serving in theatre (via Smash). Remember, though: Just as a bird’s eye view risks missing the sand for the desert, a ground’s eye view risks a greater failing — seeing only the sand, and … Read more

Wow.

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I’ve just started delving into the recent filings in the Abu Ghraib RICO lawsuit and, man, they’re fascinating. (Whether they’ll be fascinating to a lay audience, however, remains to be seen.) I’ll have a more fulsome post later on. Happy weekend, all. Update: For Francis, here’s a copy of Defendant Titan Corporation’s Memorandum in Support … Read more

Soap Operas

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Buy More Crest Toothpaste! Buy More Tide Detergent! Buy every Procter & Gamble product you can find in the supermarket!!! Or don’t. I don’t care actually. But opponents of gay marriage do: A pair of conservative groups are calling for a boycott of two Procter & Gamble Co. products because the organizations say P&G is … Read more

In Her Majesty’s Service ;-)

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Katherine Regina needs your help on the following: If anyone knows anything about: –how to track the flights of private, non-commercial planes from their FAA registration numbers or serial numbers. (I’m talking about takeoffs and landings over the last several years, not any sort of current in-flight tracking. Gulfstream jet sized and above, not dinky … Read more

Things we give away.

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Posts will be light from me for the next few days, but a few procedural notes: 1. Comments suggesting, even obliquely, that armed rebellion is acceptable if [George Bush/John Kerry/Ralph Nadar/me] is elected president are not welcome here. Commentators making such threats/insinuations in the future will be promptly banned. There is no “but-I’m-a-regular” exception. Nor … Read more

The Dream Police

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I wonder how scared we all would have been if, in the build up to the invasion of Iraq, the Bush Administration had vigorously argued: “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a hope of one day starting weapons of mass destruction-related program activities.” A new report on Iraq’s weapons programs (and dreams for … Read more

Things Get Even Worse.

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In addition to the news that the CIA’s most recent National Intelligence Estimate says that the possible outcomes in Iraq range from bad to catastrophic, the announcement that we cannot guarantee the security of the Green Zone, the fact that Kurds are streaming into Kirkuk in order to establish residency in time for the elections … Read more

Through a glass, and darkly.

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On March 2, 2004, when this blog had about a third of the daily readership that it has today, I wrote the following. Watch as it comes back to bite me in the ass:

I have no idea how the average Iraqi feels about his situation, but Kevin Drum, David Adesnik, and Bird Dog at Tacitus all feel pretty darn good about our progress. Here’s a sentence I thought I’d never write: Drum, Adesnik, and Bird Dog are in agreement on Iraq.

All three posted before today’s round of bombings and attacks, so it’s fair to say that they’ve been somewhat upstaged by events. But their claim still holds up. Iraq is getting better. …

(There’s more.)

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Supporting the Troops

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I’m making a new thread on a specific issue that arose in Sebastian’s post about a potential civil war in Iraq.

For those who don’t know, I marched against the war, even after it had started, to express my outrage that we were invading a nation that posed no discernible immediate threat to us. Once the Iraqi government was clearly overthrown, however, I agreed with Powell. We had broken it, so now we own it.

In the election campaign, much is being made about which candidate will see through our obligations to the Iraqi people and which is more likely to either cut and run or simply not invest enough in the effort.

This debate is ridiculous to me. We’re racing against the clock, hoping to be able to train the Iraqi army fast enough so that they’ll get killed by the insurgents rather than us, and all we can do is bicker back and forth about whether or not Kerry could convince the French to send troops.

We need more troops in Iraq, different troops, and we need them now. (I know many of my leftwing friends will disagree about this, but I really feel this is our obligation and we can’t disown it).

Two articles out today support this claim.. First via Sullian:

US military officers in Baghdad have warned they cannot guarantee the security of the perimeter around the Green Zone, the headquarters of the Iraqi government and home to the US and British embassies, according to security company employees.

At a briefing earlier this month, a high-ranking US officer in charge of the zone’s perimeter said he had insufficient soldiers to prevent intruders penetrating the compound’s defences.

The US major said it was possible weapons or explosives had already been stashed in the zone, and warned people to move in pairs for their own safety. The Green Zone, in Baghdad’s centre, is one of the most fortified US installations in Iraq. Until now, militants have not been able to penetrate it. (emphasis mine)

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