One thing is clear: If Thursday’s attack on Spain was the work of al Queda (and, right now, the safe money says that it was), we were caught flat-foot again.
The attack was preceded by no reports of “increased chatter.” The threat alert went unelevated. The State Department issued no new travel warnings. There were no Delphionic proclaimations from the High Priests of the War on Terror — Condoleeza Rice, George Tenet, and Donald Rumsfeld. And the first response of those who had access to the available intelligence was either to wrongly blame the ETA (the Spanish) or to take no position whatsoever (the US, EU, and NATO).
That’s the lesson to take from this attack: we may grow complacent, but we are still not safe.
So: pay no mind to the oft-repeated “insight” that this attack proves that “we’re in a war.” Of course we’re in a war. The question is, are we winning? Are our tactics in this war the right ones? And when will the war end? Not on what date. Rather, under what conditions is victory ours?
Those are the questions worth asking. (And, no, I don’t have the answers. Knowing the right questions, however, is the first step to victory.)
* * * * *
UPDATE: In comments, Bird Dog states (and I fully endorse) that “[o]ne successful terrorist attack does not mean we are losing the Terrorist War. It means we have a long ways to go and we need to do better. . . . Since those caught in Spain are Moroccans, we may have to expend some resources in north Africa.”
Yes. These are exactly the kind of questions we need to be asking. Are the tactics right? Are we focusing on the right places? Has the “problem” with intelligence been “fixed”? (Hint: No.) Do we have enough person-power — and the correct mix of persons — to do the job?
Also in comments, DmBeaster notes that “the sophistication of the attack shows a high ability to plan and execute in secrecy.” I have no doubt that we have disrupted and diminished al Queda. But this, then, begs the question: When we measure success in the war on terror, is al Queda the right ruler?
Those are the questions worth asking.
Great assessment of the real meaning of the attacks in Madrid Von. A shake up in the intelligence community seems long overdue to me. Someone somewhere should admit we’re a long way from where we should be and start asking why.
The answer may be that it’s impossible to be everywhere at once. The answer may be that terrorists attacks are a new risk that must be accounted for in everyday activities. The answer may be that we can no longer pretend we don’t know who the real enemy is just because it’s not economically or politically convenient. Or the answer may be this is the best we can do under the given circumstances…but anyone who feels we shouldn’t be asking the tough questions because it’s unpatriotic or partisan or whatever is missing the bigger picture by far.
I think there were murmurings about a resurgent, diffused Al Qaeda. Not sure if they qualify as “chatter”; they certainly weren’t actionable. But I think there was a sense that something big was in the works.
One successful terrorist attack does not mean we are losing the Terrorist War. It means we have a long ways to go and we need to do better. It also means al Qaeda has made adjustments to counter our infiltration of communications.
Since those caught in Spain are Moroccans, we may have to expend some resources in north Africa.
Excellent point, which I had not seen elsewhere to date.
Also, the sophistication of the attack shows a high ability to plan and execute in secrecy.
Bird Dog and Dmbeaster: Liked your comments so much, I incorporated them in the piece. I hope I did you justice.
(Which is not to say that I disliked Edward‘s and Praktile‘s comments. Only that they’re too complex to easily fit into the original.
we were caught flat-foot again
That’d perhaps be a true statement, if the attack had taken place on American soil. Spanish AT measures and alertness aren’t necessarily an indication of ours.
Not that our intel has a dazzlingly bright reputation, of late.
My best guess is that this was a North African Al Qaeda subsidiary, and that the Al Qaeda leadership itself was less directly involved in planning it. Which would partly explain why it feels almost, but not quite, like an Al Qaeda operation.
For a homicidal fanatic bin Laden is very, very good at organizational structure. We’re probably not very good yet at tracking the various regional groups he’s won over. Which is understandable, but it’s not good.
I’m surprised we’re not on orange alert now.
The fact that it’s on Spanish spoil doesn’t do very much to reassure me. We should be working very, very closely with our allies on this*–I doubt I need to remind anyone how many of the hijackers lived in Hamburg or had Belgian passports.
*This is why things like the Arar debacle are bad tactically as well as morally, by the way. They also make Muslim communities in the West less likely to cooperate with/report their suspicions to law enforcement.
My understanding of AQ is that it operates more like–and Bird Dog should like this one–The Tides Foundation and Center . Regional nutjobs petition the boss for assistance (monetary, administrative, technical, etc.), and Al Qaeda’s “board” decides which operations to support.
I’m withholding comment on Tides.
One comment that Zapatero made was: “I want to create an alliance against violence and all kinds of terrorism.” Usually, when socialists say this sort of thing, the attempt is to define terrorism so broadly that Americans and Israelis are classified as terrorists. I’m not heartened by his statement.
I’m not heartened by Zapatero’s statements either. That route lies Israel=terrorist idiocy.
if the attack had taken place on American soil. Spanish AT measures and alertness aren’t necessarily an indication of ours.
Sorry, Slarti, we’re supposedly doing all we can to watch al Queda. If we miss a plan to stage a massive attack in Spain (a once-close ally) it’s our intelligence failure.
In WW2, for instance, we didn’t take the position that our intelligence didn’t fail in predicting the Battle of the Bulge, just because it occurred in France.
Tho this attack did not occur on our soil, it was still quite damaging. And damaging enough to American interests that perhaps some American resources should have been deployed to prevent it.
I hope we have intelligence assets in Europe, and not just as observers. After the ME, I see Europe as the second most important front in the war.
….
I am finding it less and less useful to focus on Al Qaeda and Osama. About as structured as the blogosphere.
All we can, with the intent of minimizing damage to our own country. If all we were doing was watching Al Qaeda, we could just swoop in and nab the bastards. No, we’re probably not watching them, but instead watching FOR them. And, most likely, watching for them in the context of an attack on American soil. How, pray, are we to protect the rest of the world when it’s a stretch for us to merely protect ourselves?
” How, pray, are we to protect the rest of the world when it’s a stretch for us to merely protect ourselves?”
Slarti, you are not wrong, but it was certainly not in our interests that this event occurred in Spain. And there may very soon come a time when losing an ally will not be inconvenient or embarrassing but catastrophic.
“But this, then, begs the question: When we measure success in the war on terror, is al Queda the right ruler?”
von,
[language police]
You mean something like “leads to the question”.
[/language police]
Slarti, you are not wrong, but it was certainly not in our interests that this event occurred in Spain.
Agreed. But I can’t emphasize this enough: our first duty is to the United States. Anyone who thinks we’re going to defend the rest of the world is in la-la land. The fact that this happened at all indicates we have more work to do, but that’s the job of the intel community and, if necessary, the armed forces.
I really, really doubt that we had any indication that this was in the works that wasn’t communicated to the Spanish government.
You mean something like “leads to the question”.
I do indeed. Please don’t tell Strunk & White.
(Stage whisper: ya got so much time on your hands that you can correct by mis-applied cliches?)
But I can’t emphasize this enough: our first duty is to the United States.
Agreed, Slarti.