Highly recommended

The Columbia Journalism Review’s Campaign Desk is excellent, so far. (Moe, can you put them on my blog roll?) I hope they can keep it up in the general election, where it’s harder to steer between the two pitfalls of: 1) favoring the party you want to win 2) criticizing Democrats and Republicans (or in … Read more

OK, This Helpful Advice you can ignore…

… because as a general rule of thumb I’m somewhat leery of political advice where the bullet points all alliterate. Four E’s, indeed: I’m surprised that the Wall Street Journal neglected to mention that this is all a rehash of concepts from Welch’s management book (a genre that somehow manages to annoy me even more … Read more

Wow.

Katherine’s Maher Arar posts are being linked to by the Christian Science Monitor’s Terrorism & Security daily update. (pause) I’m sorry if this is actually prosaic or something, but I’m new at this, so I at least am going to continue to think that it’s really, really cool that this happened. Katherine rules…

Weekend NH Primary Thread

These are my predictions for the Tuesday primary. Please bear in mind that I frankly am incredibly bad at this sort of thing, which should provide some amusement later. Wesley Clark: Either him or Edwards makes the cut; if him, distant third. Advances to next round either way. Howard Dean: Makes the cut; no lower … Read more

Ribs and the Economy

Reading this transcript/press-kebob made me grin, and I’m not ashamed to admit it. Call it simplistic, call it arrogant, heck, call it insane if you like – I won’t agree with you, but people have a right to their opinions. And I’ll say it again – people underestimate the political skills of this President at … Read more

I wonder.

There were rumors floating around* today to the effect that Osama bin Laden had been captured: think that it might have been based on this story?

Captured Insurgent Said Linked to al-Qaida
By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer

WASHINGTON – U.S. forces in Iraq (news – web sites) captured a leader of the insurgency who is believed to be a close associate of Abu Musab Zarqawi, described by some as a key link between the al-Qaida terrorist network and toppled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (news – web sites), a senior American official said Friday.

U.S. troops captured Husam al-Yemeni last Thursday, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. He is described by U.S. officials as the leader of an insurgency cell in Fallujah, west of Baghdad.

The official said al-Yemeni is the highest-level member of Ansar al-Islam captured so far. That is a group comprising mainly ethnic Kurds from northern Iraq with alleged al-Qaida ties.

Alas, there’s no confirmation, and I just tossed off a mini-lecture in comments about not taking seriously anonymous sources, so take the elements of this particular story with heavy grains of salt – but even if false you can see how this might have morphed further into a OBL capture rumor, so there you go.

Moe

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Arar #19: the legal complaint

This is the legal complaint, in PDF form, in the lawsuit Arar just filed against Ashcroft et. al. If anyone familiar with this area of law can guess whether it has any chance of success, or at least not to be dismissed before discovery, please let me know. New information/allegations: 1. In addition to the … Read more

Forgive this . . . .

. . . . But I’m gonna just talk off the top of my head, here. (It’s a blog, ain’t it?) 1. I’m pretty freakin’ dissatisfied with President Bush. I don’t like his social conservatism (I’m pretty liberal, socially), I don’t like his fiscal liberalism (I’m a bit of a deficit hawk), I don’t like … Read more

Arar # 18: Guilt by association

Another very, very, important investigative story by the Globe and Mail–they obtained a copy of the I.N.S. document which determined that Arar was a member of Al Qaeda: According to U.S. documents obtained by The Globe and Mail, an Immigration and Naturalization Service’s regional director concluded that Mr. Arar was a member of al-Qaeda because … Read more

SNAFU

From today’s Washington Post, a mixed bag: Commanders are heartened by a sharp reduction in the number of attacks on U.S. forces and say that an overhaul of intelligence operations has produced a series of successes that have weakened the anti-occupation insurgency. . . . That’s the good news. Then, five paragraphs in, a buried … Read more

Technorati Beta Test

Outside The Beltway has provided a link to the Beta version of Technorati, which I for one was happy to see because it allows me to track down a couple more blogs for the Backscratch list. Remember, we link to those who link to us, and we have a special category* for the blogs of … Read more

Drunk With Power…

… and stolen lifeforce forcibly ripped from the bloody chest of the Howard Dean campaign, the vicious predator of the news magazine world known as Tee’N-Ahrrr stalks its next victim: Senator John Kerry. (pause) Sorry: had to pump that story up somehow: it’s apparently now subscriber-only (which reminds me: how is dKos’ crusade against TNR … Read more

A Prediction.

Something to keep an eye out for: if by the time of the Democratic convention the delegate situation is such that no one candidate has quite enough to win – or one does, but he’s on the razor’s edge – and you see a report that calls into question the delegate selection methods of any … Read more

An Ode to the Unknown Muse

I guess it was the iambic pentameter comment earlier that set this off: ObWi does have a definite poetical flavor to it. Or maybe doggerel – not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course. Hear me, o Muse. No, wait, a problem there That weighs upon our blogs with leaden strain; For in that … Read more

Arar #17: Daily update

Lots of developments today: 1. Lo and behold, some U.S. press coverage. 60 minutes II did a pretty thorough story on this case last night; you can read the summary here. It’s not half bad, especially by the standards of TV news. The most interesting parts: a) They spoke to that Syrian diplomat, Imad Moustapha. … Read more

Oh, hell

“Iraq may be on path to civil war, CIA officials warn.” I don’t want yet another round of “Jane, you ignorant slut” on the Iraq war. This was one of the things I feared, but we didn’t know and don’t know still what will happen. I just hope they’re wrong. What to do next? Again, … Read more

Political Hacks

Wow. This could be big, though it may get overshadowed with so much else going on: Republican staff members of the US Senate Judiciary Commitee infiltrated opposition computer files for a year, monitoring secret strategy memos and periodically passing on copies to the media, Senate officials told The Globe. From the spring of 2002 until … Read more

Today was a fairly dull day.

Thank God. I’ve had my fill of exciting ones, and I suspect so have most of the rest of y’all. Here’s to many more dull, boring days. Moe PS: Call this an open thread, not that you guys ever needed an excuse to tangent. Neither do I, now that I think about it.

State of the union

1. I cannot top what has already been said about “weapons of mass destruction related program activities,” but I can compile it in one convenient location. 2. The first presidential campaign I really followed was 1992. The first moment of the campaign I remember was watching the State of the Union with my dad, as … Read more

Definition of Philistine:

No doubt it’d be “someone who accesses Brad DeLong’s website to find the link to this: Flame Warriors.” I mean, it wasn’t even from one of his posts (a somewhat interesting one, mind, all about comments and trolls and deleting and so forth): it was just another comment in the thread. Alas. Alack. There is … Read more

61 is a Magic Number

So it doesn’t scan like the original. Sue me… after we talk about why it’s a magic number.

(Numbers via The Green Papers)

We start with the number 4,322, which is the total number of delegates showing up for the Democratic Convention this summer. Somebody’s got to get 2,162 – half of the total, plus 1 – of them voting for him (alas, it’s unlikely to be any her this year) to win the nomination. Remember that number: 2,162. However, of that 4,322, 802 delegates are superdelegates that are not chosen through the primary process. So, let’s get rid of them for right now: that leaves us with 3,520 delegates who are chosen as per procedures and are pledged to vote for whatever candidate they represent for at least the first vote. Let’s repeat that number, too: 3,520.

So, let’s say that you’re a candidate that wants to make sure of the nomination. The only absolutely certain way to do that is to get at least your half-plus-one from the pool of the delegates obligated to vote a specific way on the first ballot. That’s 2,162 of 3,520, or 61% (rounded off) of the total. 61 is thus your magic number: as long as you are consistently getting at least that many of the delegates, success is assured, with no compromises or deals necessary.

This is where it gets complicated.

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Arar #16: Juliet O’Neill

They went after the Canadian reporter for writing this story, it seems. I don’t know if she’s been arrested yet, but they’ve said they intend to charge her. (I posted some excerpts, before, then deleted them….I’m sure this is being paranoid, as the Canadian press is displaying the link prominently. But on further reflection I’d … Read more

Arar #15: I try to get out, and they pull me back in

Ok, so that last post wasn’t the finale after all. Two updates: 1. Someone pointed out that I should mention that Canada and the U.S. recently signed an agreement that the Martin and Bush administrations say will prevent this from ever happening again. But Arar’s lawyers are distinctly unimpressed, as am I. From the link … Read more

You can’t please everyone

Andrew Sullivan thinks last night’s SotU “the worst Bush SOTU yet.” Not a big surprise, given the red-meat Bush tossed to his fiscally liberal, culturally conservative base.* Kevin Drum, in turn, calls the Democrat’s response “crappy,” and offers some advice.

Sheesh. Everyone’s unhappy — save me. I missed both speeches.

Now, go read Katherine‘s latest on Arar (Arar #14). It’s important.

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Arar #14: A Plea for Bipartisanship in “Interesting Times”

So some of you must have wondered why I’ve spent so much time and effort blogging about the Arar case. In part it’s because I used to be a reporter and it’s fun to keep those skills from getting rusty. In part it’s a quest for links (precious links!). In part it’s because I’m going on extended blogging hiatus very soon, and I wanted to make sure I did something worthwile before I did.

But mainly it’s because think it’s such an incredibly important, and under-reported story.

There have been a lot of limits on civil rights since September 11. Some of them are probably necessary, but some are not; some are more or less benign, but some are dangerous. Although you hear most often about the Patriot Act, most of the most controversial and severe changes were made by the executive branch without prior authorization or supervision by Congress. Many of these changes were made in secret.

You can blame the Bush administration or not, as you choose–you can guess my position. But in all honesty, Congress and the public have not made a strong effort to find out what was happening, or tell the President what he could and could not do. (A notable exception to this is the Senate Judiciary committee’s insistence on some revisions of, and time to consider the Patriot Act.)

I don’t think this is because we’re willing to allow anything, as long as there’s any chance it would keep us safer. I think most Americans would not accept what happened to Maher Arar, if they knew of it. But we don’t know, and we tend to give our leaders the benefit of the doubt when the country is in danger. I suspect it’s much easier for most people to imagine the next catastrophic terrorist attack if we don’t go far enough, than it is to imagine that someone might end up being tortured because we go too far.

This is a rare case where the veil of secrecy has been lifted. We don’t know all the details or explanations, but we know that something terrible happened. Our government took a man from an airport in New York City and handed him over to Syria, where he was tortured for 10 months. I think I’ve made a decent case that he was probably innocent; that this was done with the knowledge and approval of fairly important government officials; and that this was not some freak accident or isolated occurrence. This happened, and there is no reason to believe it will not happen again. (We are less chummy with Syria these days, but that may change and there is never any shortage of nasty regimes in the world. And the agreement with Canada about this case is incomplete, and only applies to Canadian citizens anyway.)

As Ted Barlow said last November, “I support the vigorous investigation and prosecution of terrorists and terrorist suspects. But if this isn’t over the line, then there is no line.” It is not acceptable to me for my country to send people to be tortured on scant evidence, or on evidence gained from other torture sessions. I don’t believe it makes my family any safer in the long run, and even if it did I would not support it.

Maybe that’s not what happened. I’ve looked at this very carefully, and it seems the most likely explanation to me, but I could always be wrong. But I think it is beyond dispute that we need an investigation.

Yes, it might damage Bush politically, and no, I would not shed any tears over that. But I think it would lead to Ashcroft’s replacement at most, and the public will not blame Bush too much for overreacting in the name of protecting us from terrorists. Anyway, some things have to matter more than politics. These are dangerous times, and historic times–surely we can manage to agree on something more important than a do-not-call registry.

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The Revolution Will Be Somethinged

Jonah Goldberg is in the process of dissing the blogosphere’s influence in the electoral process: The internet is a wonderful thing, but it ain’t no Brave New World for electoral politics — yet. And it probably won’t be until we have online voting. And if we do get that, it will be a revolution all … Read more

Ah, the Social Sciences…

… there’s a paper or three in the situation found here, I’m sure – especially given that most of the people involved in this are probably fairly average teenage males. Only that particular demographic would see the point of virtual prostitution rings. (Via Lincoln Cat)

Cheney rumor.

Because, SotU or no SotU, the blogging must go on. Besides, everybody else is parsing it to death and beyond.

Citizen Smash has posted a rumor that Cheney’s going to not serve a second term; granted, he already said that he would (and Bush has already said that he’d be on the ticket), but considering Cheney’s history of heart disease that’s not a particular problem. The idea is to have a healthy Vice President, after all.

Let me just note three things about this:

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the Howard Dean we haven’t seen

So is Howard Dean doomed? It’s definitely possible, but then I thought Kerry was doomed until 48 hours ago.

What Dean needs to do, and has started to do, is to show that he will be the best President. He was the first off the carpet after the midterms, but everyone else followed him up. He can’t make the electability argument credible until he, you know, wins some elections. So he needs to show some leadership, act presidential, be a statesman–pick your adjective, but you know what I mean.

We’ve seen almost none of Dean-as-leader or Dean-as-statesman this past month. People in Iowa and New Hampshire may not know he’s capable of it. But I know, I know that he can do it. I wouldn’t be supporting him otherwise–to quote the West Wing I may be dumb, but I’m not that dumb.

I know because I’ve seen him do it. Below are some examples (some of which I’ve posted before, but humor me, dagnabbit):

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Interesting

I’ll be at a Markman hearing in beautiful Orlando, Florida the next few days, so there will be (even) lighter posting from me. Before I go, however, a couple non-insightful, relatively-boring thoughts: 1. Dean has to do well in New Hampshire now. He can survive a close second, but anything worse is the end of … Read more

So we’ll go no more a-caucusing, so late into the night…

1. Yeah, I’m pretty f*cking depressed right now. Not quite ready to change my endorsement from Howard Dean to hopeless, unending despair, but bad enough. Let’s not talk about it. 2. Evidence that politics is weird, part one–Dennis Kucinich’s endorsement proved more influential than Al Gore’s, Bill Bradley’s, Tom Harkin’s combined. 3. Evidence that politics … Read more

Showstoppers

I just finished reading this particular Weekly Standard article (“Showstoppers”, by Richard H. Shultz Jr.) on why Special Forces were not used before 9/11, and it’s an eye-opener. How much of one? Let me put it this way: I’m going to be surprised if the official 9/11 report ends up being half as useful.

The central thesis of this article is simple: the Clinton administration was repeatedly stymied by attitudes and policies from both bureaucracies (civilian and military) that made it impossible for any meaningful counterterrrorism activities to take place in the realm of Special Forces. Shultz breaks down the problems into 9 basic categories:

(UPDATE: On behalf of all of us here at Obsidian Wings I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome all those visiting from Instapundit. I hope that you’ll find the site interesting, entertaining and informative. Canape?)

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