Because, really, we don’t have enough people analyzing this already.
1). First off, the CW of Kerry and Dean being the top candidates in NH seems to have been right; Kerry’s win isn’t as big as the press is liable to spin it, but it is a win and if he can survive the South he’ll be well on the way to taking the nomination. The DNC would rather have him than Dean as the candidate – at least, that’s my take, but a fair one, I think – so watch Kerry’s money problems go away. Again, assuming that he survives the South; a thorough shellacking there will disrupt any potential Kerry tidal waves.
2). Dean, however, is hardly out of this race quite yet. He’s still got his base, he’s still got his war chest – most importantly, he’s still got the honest belief that he can win this thing, so the fact that he came in second isn’t going to make Dean bobble. However, there is one change: the other two candidates realistically still in play – Clark and Edwards – just became Howard Dean’s new bestest buddies in the whole wide world. It doesn’t look like either made the cutoff point this primary, but they came close – and if Dean can count on a three-way delegate split every primary, then the odds that Kerry will scare up enough pledged delegates to get the nomination go way down. Mind you, Dean will keep trying to win outright – but if I had to bet on Kerry versus Dean in a political knife fight at the convention, twenty bucks on Dean.
3). The Ninja has probably already decided to drop out of the race, alas. A pity. Sharpton will probably not, ever. A pity – well, not from my point of view, and possibly not Dean’s, either (for somewhat different reasons). It all depends if Sharpton can pick up delegates.
4). Clark and Edwards. Short version: neither of these guys are likely to be President, but one of them has a good shot at being the Vice Presidential candidate if Dean gets the nomination. At the moment, I think that it’d be Edwards; Clark’s… well, let’s just say that there’d be an ego problem from day one. Still, it’ll depend mostly on who’s the last man standing in the South – which, Kerry’s commentary to the (sorta) contrary, the Democrats should consider to be of critical importance. This entire Red State / Blue State paradigm that we’ve locked ourselves into completely ignores the fact that lots and lots of Republicans live in Blue States, and vice versa: Red State Democrats who feel pushed aside might decide to push back… in the House and Senate, where the vagaries of the Electoral College matter not.
5). Most importantly – anyone who tells you that the primaries are over is smoking crack; we’ve barely begun the first flurry of blows. I’ll probably be wincing at my assumptions, six weeks from now…
The Ninja has only faded into the shadows, ever watchful for an opportunity to unleash a wicked fast fatal strike.
I don’t think Joemental (note: as you know, I don’t believe in making fun of people’s names; but when the person is themself making use of their name….) has decided to drop out yet. He didn’t crash and burn completely in NH, and wasn’t that far behind Edwards and Clark. While I wouldn’t be shocked if he did drop out this week, my bet is that he’ll hang on through next week to see if he decently in any of the several more conservative states.
I would not count either Clark or, very much particularly, Edwards, out. If Edwards pulls out a big win in South Carolina, that gives him credibility, and more so if he can be credible elsewhere next week. Clark might still surprise us; he’s got a war-chest and a good network, though I wouldn’t lay money on him right now. But Edwards has a lot of attractive qualities going for him, and if Dean fades even more, he becomes the Anyone-But-Kerry alternative.
Dean stands a very good shot in Washington State, and possibly Arizona. Plus, the war-chest. Plus, anyone who has looked at his governorship knows he’s neither the crazed loon he’s been painted as in the past week, nor an “angry liberal.” He’s now back to being underestimated again, and while I’ve written on my own blog about the structural flaw of his innovative campaign, which may very well cause continued melt-down, that’s in no way a foregone conclusion.
So, yeah, it’s damn early yet.